Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260906 · dates 20260906 · generated 2026-09-07T06:00:19.196681+00:00

9-6

Winner picks · 60.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

13/30

Starter ER within ±1

17/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260906	15	15	0	9	6	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.0937.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	11	53.2%	63.6%	-10.4%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	4	56.6%	50.0%	6.6%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.6762	4.6454	2.4455	53.3%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.6667	4.8	2.2667	53.3%	-0.0095	-0.1788
enhanced_prediction	15	2.7	4.2	2.7333	60.0%	0.0238	0.2878
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.6667	4.1333	2.6667	60.0%	-0.0095	0.2212
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.6667	4.1333	2.6667	60.0%	-0.0095	0.2212
capped_target	15	2.6667	4.1333	2.6667	60.0%	-0.0095	0.2212
simulation_result	15	2.6667	4.1333	2.6667	60.0%	-0.0095	0.2212
published_final	15	2.6667	4.1333	2.6667	60.0%	-0.0095	0.2212

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.7,
  "total_run_mae": 4.2,
  "margin_mae": 2.7333,
  "winner_hits": 9,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0238,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2878
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	5.0	0.0	5.0	5.0	6	4	0	2	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.1063	-1.3051	-1.1988	1.4114	6	1	5	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 5.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.1063,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.3051,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.1988,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.4114,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 5,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=9

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
variance_applied	3.0948	-1.0945	2.0003	4.1893	9	6	3	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	9	3	0	6	reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction	1.0	-5.0	-4.0	6.0	9	1	4	4	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "variance_applied",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0948,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0945,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0003,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.1893,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -5.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -4.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 6.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	2	2	0	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	9	5	4	0.5556
[0.550, 0.600)	4	2	2	0.5
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 4,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 2,
    "accuracy": 0.5
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.5556
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260906	15	0.5413	8.9333	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260906",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5413,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.9333,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	9	6	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 9,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260906_ARI@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 4 - 3 HOU

Final confidence53.7%

Calibrationraw 55.6% → blended 54.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.9% · weight 50.0% · n=549

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0257

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.533548062759611-4.340309890513969	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.074616,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.537308,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.462692,
    "away_win_probability": 0.537308
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.074616,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.5373082,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.555629,
    "sample_size": 549,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5392,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.547414,
    "published_confidence": 0.537308,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2657,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.42,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0257
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028871914434765344
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028198256520021697
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027142708651345313
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026509397668387346
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.026288088806053843
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06419359666232854,
      "1": 0.1075559576660899,
      "2": 0.15053767519138006,
      "3": 0.17600455557306435,
      "4": 0.1718979050715665,
      "5": 0.14024430347910646,
      "6": 0.09558018057683522,
      "7": 0.05441497505141891,
      "8": 0.02587837447015402,
      "9": 0.010280719795607187,
      "10": 0.003411756462448997
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05039973941938097,
      "1": 0.08548060456898467,
      "2": 0.12409889470554318,
      "3": 0.15421594380310016,
      "4": 0.16404072235948355,
      "5": 0.14936027491141235,
      "6": 0.11640712676904204,
      "7": 0.07765779760668448,
      "8": 0.044345709105743786,
      "9": 0.021676001493892642,
      "10": 0.009069174850179907,
      "11": 0.0032480104065522974
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 HOU",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 HOU",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1225,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.42,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
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    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
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    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_ATL@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPHI

Published scoreATL 3 - 4 PHI

Final confidence55.1%

Calibrationraw 57.7% → blended 55.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=544

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.391

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.4394282720734966-4.494045882682021	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.101292,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.550646,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.550646,
    "away_win_probability": 0.449354
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.101292,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.55064555,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.577032,
    "sample_size": 544,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5404,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.558716,
    "published_confidence": 0.550646,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6338,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.06,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.391
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028957142613702566
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027859783321793688
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02688530464753125
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026812727793098092
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025866459685362622
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0479764458206497,
      "1": 0.08154721319583656,
      "2": 0.11916116145378729,
      "3": 0.1496941685205313,
      "4": 0.1616663332331467,
      "5": 0.15009936160502618,
      "6": 0.11980712683473858,
      "7": 0.08221120472907568,
      "8": 0.04849801045152774,
      "9": 0.02459582442639021,
      "10": 0.010723668910392517,
      "11": 0.00401948081889757
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0666028398499898,
      "1": 0.11135338341421486,
      "2": 0.15485237618240072,
      "3": 0.17911671548795566,
      "4": 0.17232891205379028,
      "5": 0.13790625409372026,
      "6": 0.09179384553694657,
      "7": 0.05082143841210047,
      "8": 0.02340367873493614,
      "9": 0.008964479725099943,
      "10": 0.002856076508845366
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.101,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.01,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.391,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5506,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5506,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.391,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.06,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.101,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.25,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T16:35:57.557557+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-06T17:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.559583,
      "confidence": 0.559583,
      "predicted_score": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.559583,
      "confidence": 0.559583,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.577032,
        "sample_size": 544,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5404,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.558716
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.558716,
        "final_confidence": 0.5596,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5596,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.979181,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.7187,
        "calibration_sample_size": 544,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5404,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5391,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.391,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.559583,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.979181,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.559583,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.559583
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 23,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.5633802816901409,
          "runs_scored": 637,
          "runs_allowed": 602,
          "run_differential": 35,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.24647887323943662,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 58,
          "win_pct": 0.5915492957746479,
          "runs_scored": 660,
          "runs_allowed": 541,
          "run_differential": 119,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8380281690140845,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5915,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0282,
        "quality_edge": -0.391,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.6338,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6338,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.06,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.391
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "8": 0.02340367873493614,
          "9": 0.008964479725099943,
          "10": 0.002856076508845366
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.4394282720734966,
      "home_runs": 4.494045882682021,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_BOS@BAL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 4 - 3 BAL

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 58.8% → blended 57.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=309

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5547

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.796294807313172-3.267528547616254	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.09852,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54926,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.45074,
    "away_win_probability": 0.54926
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.09852,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 3 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.54926005,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.588311,
    "sample_size": 309,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5631,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.575705,
    "published_confidence": 0.54926,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8706,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.032,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5547
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03049882763497128
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029129052452760776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0287373179746779
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027446656397907335
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.027210678132968128
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07010185136419053,
      "1": 0.11685465654776503,
      "2": 0.16105643300879477,
      "3": 0.18353785288441607,
      "4": 0.17293732407868945,
      "5": 0.1347309400618435,
      "6": 0.08678835619498913,
      "7": 0.04622438086691652,
      "8": 0.020356178968549382,
      "9": 0.007412026023845708
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0529330522558248,
      "1": 0.08957471396449936,
      "2": 0.12916455573688773,
      "3": 0.1587086913951475,
      "4": 0.1661718667602485,
      "5": 0.14825649153749335,
      "6": 0.11271179593391718,
      "7": 0.07301707860879525,
      "8": 0.04030686008757087,
      "9": 0.0189597634434977,
      "10": 0.007599522283326319,
      "11": 0.002595607992791581
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.178,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5547,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5493,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.583,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5493,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5547,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.032,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.066,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260906_CHC@MIA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 6 - 4 MIA

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 77.4% → blended 66.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=344

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8414

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.165181276650572-3.689481570177319	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
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    "raw_confidence": 0.773853,
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    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5523,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.663076,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.045,
    "away_run_delta": 0.045,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.021,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.508,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.021766586632662708
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        "probability": 0.021024307724686348
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    "home_distribution": {
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        "most_likely": [
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          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "10": 0.0066917897907427856,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "14": 0.004794362903629624,
          "15": 0.002006964816725348
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.165181276650572,
      "home_runs": 3.689481570177319,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_DET@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreDET 3 - 4 CLE

Final confidence52.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=445

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1296

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.623107316408397-5.231584399144559	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.040592,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520296,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.520296,
    "away_win_probability": 0.479704
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.040592,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.52029647,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 445,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5326,
    "published_confidence": 0.520296,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3954,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.364,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1296
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030936128617954393
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030507664113324832
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029528720676167006
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026630592655158502
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0626441784771651,
      "1": 0.10510489782640324,
      "2": 0.1477175544276576,
      "3": 0.17390344366021562,
      "4": 0.17149488589394085,
      "5": 0.14166451645902767,
      "6": 0.09802523949779862,
      "7": 0.0568174396054204,
      "8": 0.027586228193830116,
      "9": 0.011219407136399588,
      "10": 0.003822208822141005
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06563779918418954,
      "1": 0.10983431833146057,
      "2": 0.15313436062365254,
      "3": 0.1778925590363783,
      "4": 0.1721842638178069,
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      "10": 0.003067389329181165
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0054,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.434,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1296,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5203,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5866,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5203,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1296,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.364,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0054,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-06T17:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.528092,
      "confidence": 0.528092,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.528092,
      "confidence": 0.528092,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 445,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.5326
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5452,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5452,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.97473,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 445,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5529,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1296,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.97473,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.545249,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.545249
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 5,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "668909": 28,
            "695549": 5
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.6208,
          "probability_before": 0.545249,
          "probability_after": 0.528092,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -5.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 143,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.5034965034965035,
          "runs_scored": 577,
          "runs_allowed": 592,
          "run_differential": -15,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.1048951048951049,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 65,
          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.45774647887323944,
          "runs_scored": 625,
          "runs_allowed": 574,
          "run_differential": 51,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.3591549295774648,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4641,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0458,
        "quality_edge": -0.1296,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.3954,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.3954,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.364,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.1296
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.030936128617954393
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.030507664113324832
          },
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            "home_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 2,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "2": 0.1477175544276576,
          "3": 0.17390344366021562,
          "4": 0.17149488589394085,
          "5": 0.14166451645902767,
          "6": 0.09802523949779862,
          "7": 0.0568174396054204,
          "8": 0.027586228193830116,
          "9": 0.011219407136399588,
          "10": 0.003822208822141005
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06563779918418954,
          "1": 0.10983431833146057,
          "2": 0.15313436062365254,
          "3": 0.1778925590363783,
          "4": 0.1721842638178069,
          "5": 0.1388608041752596,
          "6": 0.09330747484841251,
          "7": 0.052240068680469924,
          "8": 0.024369217521464905,
          "9": 0.009471744451723853,
          "10": 0.003067389329181165
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.623107316408397,
      "home_runs": 5.231584399144559,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_LAA@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreLAA 3 - 5 PIT

Final confidence57.2%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 55.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=334

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7192

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.374223898939737-5.507632830563514	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.14463,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.572315,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.572315,
    "away_win_probability": 0.427685
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.14463,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.5723146,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.564108,
    "sample_size": 334,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5419,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.553004,
    "published_confidence": 0.572315,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.03,
    "away_run_delta": 0.03,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8739,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.432,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7192
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024512582911883154
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024336759661170947
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02322702482388879
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023060422592553576
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022093599935953903
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037837713856658545,
      "1": 0.06489864284888115,
      "2": 0.09744290894705206,
      "3": 0.12807629766153478,
      "4": 0.1473639276816245,
      "5": 0.1484285724890448,
      "6": 0.13087229913333523,
      "7": 0.10101406597098472,
      "8": 0.06825270560141597,
      "9": 0.04037028266927519,
      "10": 0.02090295125183029,
      "11": 0.009474522340152003,
      "12": 0.0037593342339330947,
      "13": 0.0013057753142776021
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05166317702619178,
      "1": 0.08752474330673997,
      "2": 0.12663755015134093,
      "3": 0.15648621039997623,
      "4": 0.1651473331638514,
      "5": 0.1488500466282163,
      "6": 0.11457986428954378,
      "7": 0.07532680558159485,
      "8": 0.0422934113072668,
      "9": 0.020280459927108294,
      "10": 0.008305481251956402,
      "11": 0.0029049169662131173
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.131,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.432,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7192,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5723,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5606,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5723,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7192,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.432,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.131,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    },
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      "away_runs": 3,
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    },
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    },
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    },
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}

20260906_MIL@CIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 7 - 5 CIN

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 67.3% → blended 61.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=268

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.4797

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.977399881641083-3.083739073296625	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5559,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
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          "published_score": {
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          "margin": -2,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.335008,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 22,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          "losses": 74,
          "win_pct": 0.4788732394366197,
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          "runs_allowed": 702,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.7676056338028169,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "wins": 88,
          "losses": 55,
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          "runs_scored": 718,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.9704,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1365,
        "quality_edge": -1.4797,
        "season_quality_edge": -2.1752,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.188,
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          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.6215,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
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          "quality_edge": -1.4797,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.1752,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 4.161,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2657
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_MIN@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreMIN 4 - 6 CHW

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 53.4% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=228

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.372

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.2953134412064067-6.141655509941847	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 6 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.533633,
    "sample_size": 228,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5614,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.547517,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6197,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.088,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.372
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022441292833995253
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022355555947382734
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022223089030048607
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02213818579036257
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019763210303638448
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03824862498783499,
      "1": 0.06557886491913252,
      "2": 0.09835366458602454,
      "3": 0.12903150988628798,
      "4": 0.14807426821737474,
      "5": 0.14864215508962544,
      "6": 0.1305217758670224,
      "7": 0.10025419115150105,
      "8": 0.06735978360670102,
      "9": 0.039589262524061614,
      "10": 0.020353201051060567,
      "11": 0.00915306646638403,
      "12": 0.0036006349444913177,
      "13": 0.0012389967024977956
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03995226370969719,
      "1": 0.06839640177830318,
      "2": 0.102115411200652,
      "3": 0.1329583138223608,
      "4": 0.15097529244287414,
      "5": 0.14950731181641538,
      "6": 0.12911751489249543,
      "7": 0.09724651733829541,
      "8": 0.06387473743193835,
      "9": 0.036588985780038406,
      "10": 0.01827838359400034,
      "11": 0.007963268803483503,
      "12": 0.003025597389445706
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 6 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 6 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0106,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.018,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.372,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5527,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.372,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.088,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0106,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_NYY@SD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 4 - 3 SD

Final confidence53.6%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.3% · weight 50.0% · n=379

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.776

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.110333396481314-4.006171477845585	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.071328,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535664,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.464336,
    "away_win_probability": 0.535664
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.071328,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 SD",
    "confidence": 0.535664045,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 379,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.533,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5483,
    "published_confidence": 0.535664,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8556,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.628,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.776
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.035144330896002836
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03416477913160165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.033300293859423145
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032372139566157435
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030159338785342063
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08708105303156216,
      "1": 0.14294604250781281,
      "2": 0.18814815983131972,
      "3": 0.1985670521257218,
      "4": 0.1680326885971484,
      "5": 0.1140144085873768,
      "6": 0.06203047058526222,
      "7": 0.02706012432073841,
      "8": 0.009465288892642414,
      "9": 0.0026547115204152874
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06494075363425493,
      "1": 0.10873542055144429,
      "2": 0.15188490971929633,
      "3": 0.17698973983735916,
      "4": 0.17205663661648352,
      "5": 0.13953547713728362,
      "6": 0.09440342025879006,
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      "8": 0.025087854824483693,
      "9": 0.0098545373345676,
      "10": 0.0032292288597336656
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 SD",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 SD",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "margin_widening_capped": false,
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          "5": 0.13953547713728362,
          "6": 0.09440342025879006,
          "7": 0.05328202122630316,
          "8": 0.025087854824483693,
          "9": 0.0098545373345676,
          "10": 0.0032292288597336656
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.110333396481314,
      "home_runs": 4.006171477845585,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_OAK@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreOAK 6 - 7 SEA

Final confidence54.4%

Calibrationraw 58.4% → blended 57.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=313

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3524

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7948789193549457-4.824637770550312	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.0884,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.5442,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.5442,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4558
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.0884,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 7-6",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 6 - 7 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.54419966,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.584126,
    "sample_size": 313,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.573213,
    "published_confidence": 0.5442,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8846,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.636,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3524
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016948130318462047
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016626114536303676
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016333484949892348
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01602314747710444
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015929528838634983
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01999512606490119,
      "1": 0.03488606795069833,
      "2": 0.05513382149727663,
      "3": 0.07892641323361754,
      "4": 0.10234457711374982,
      "5": 0.1202113577481027,
      "6": 0.12789818063750655,
      "7": 0.12325979145237619,
      "8": 0.10760109433235959,
      "9": 0.08508444015367117,
      "10": 0.06094271534895083,
      "11": 0.03953954372582911,
      "12": 0.023236981050339913,
      "13": 0.012369893255809634,
      "14": 0.00596472461841839,
      "15": 0.0026052718163923692
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.023831431534051588,
      "1": 0.041417912205042304,
      "2": 0.06469710778187707,
      "3": 0.09083226010461787,
      "4": 0.11461830071629439,
      "5": 0.1299949260687764,
      "6": 0.13251267714665171,
      "7": 0.1214079275505291,
      "8": 0.09997588429701589,
      "9": 0.07399494531728523,
      "10": 0.04922292798918818,
      "11": 0.029430078800301903,
      "12": 0.015815174820064247,
      "13": 0.007638624470958826,
      "14": 0.003316002990804346,
      "15": 0.0012938182065410258
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "OAK 6 - 7 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "OAK 6 - 7 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0113,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.706,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3524,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5442,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5564,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5442,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3524,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.636,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0113,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-06T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.561176,
      "confidence": 0.561176,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        }
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.561176,
      "confidence": 0.561176,
      "predicted_score": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.7902,
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_SF@NYM

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYM

Published scoreSF 4 - 6 NYM

Final confidence51.6%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=326

H2H base featurehome net 19.0 · absolute 19.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0295

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.439107759542447-4.918290078665909	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.032656,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.516328,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.516328,
    "away_win_probability": 0.483672
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.032656,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 6 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.5163285,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 326,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5613,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5357,
    "published_confidence": 0.516328,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 19.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 19.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1096,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1096,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2156,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.316,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0295
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023104639671639306
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022938628109151326
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022617289990477303
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022454780135144146
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02053097243441951
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03963973572003363,
      "1": 0.06788067220129648,
      "2": 0.10143194013117275,
      "3": 0.13225635362116245,
      "4": 0.15047750136206736,
      "5": 0.1493962897320471,
      "6": 0.12942592175391116,
      "7": 0.09783988545484841,
      "8": 0.06453923579871003,
      "9": 0.03714881081196126,
      "10": 0.018658607426195305,
      "11": 0.008177616744498862,
      "12": 0.003127429242094937
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.041474296512703505,
      "1": 0.07091100629273336,
      "2": 0.10546295972367777,
      "3": 0.13643881808629627,
      "4": 0.15354215389346945,
      "5": 0.15030346587199986,
      "6": 0.12798587688326382,
      "7": 0.09479966181589564,
      "8": 0.06108058872999838,
      "9": 0.034233501895415214,
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      "11": 0.007077870509468031
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 6 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 6 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0237,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.106,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0295,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5163,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5972,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5163,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0295,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.316,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0237,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260906_STL@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSTL

Published scoreSTL 5 - 4 COL

Final confidence55.9%

Calibrationraw 55.2% → blended 54.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=335

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7287

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.474117400730049-4.017870631743895	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.1187,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.55935,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44065,
    "away_win_probability": 0.55935
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.1187,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 4 COL",
    "confidence": 0.5593504850000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.551688,
    "sample_size": 335,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5433,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.547494,
    "published_confidence": 0.55935,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 142,
          "wins": 55,
          "losses": 87,
          "win_pct": 0.3873239436619718,
          "runs_scored": 671,
          "runs_allowed": 809,
          "run_differential": -138,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.971830985915493,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "STL",
          "games": 143,
          "wins": 71,
          "losses": 72,
          "win_pct": 0.4965034965034965,
          "runs_scored": 647,
          "runs_allowed": 658,
          "run_differential": -11,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.07692307692307693,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.8949,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1092,
        "quality_edge": -0.7287,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.0587,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.0587,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.116,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.7287
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3061,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3061,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7287,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.0587,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.331,
          "home_runs": 2.975,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2147
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.474117400730049,
      "home_runs": 4.017870631743895,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_TB@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 5 - 4 TEX

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=502

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6881

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.932184675521341-3.713144596621439	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.054788,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.527394,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.472606,
    "away_win_probability": 0.527394
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.054788,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.5273935875,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 502,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5438,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52695,
    "published_confidence": 0.527394,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8304,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.424,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6881
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025938744825901822
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02439175902557075
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02409278991456637
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023986608373723357
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023780956756736374
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.048472876136283385,
      "1": 0.08235435659634621,
      "2": 0.1201800533354016,
      "3": 0.1506385861619369,
      "4": 0.16218029797481978,
      "5": 0.14997469305342576,
      "6": 0.11912307459493683,
      "7": 0.08127029405520644,
      "8": 0.047623991581022825,
      "9": 0.023970537861358138,
      "10": 0.010363054685627399,
      "11": 0.003848183963634769
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.046400163544552585,
      "1": 0.07897971340022887,
      "2": 0.11590071791069959,
      "3": 0.1466328342819337,
      "4": 0.1599377060580385,
      "5": 0.15039902707145,
      "6": 0.12193088369347779,
      "7": 0.08522302517867712,
      "8": 0.0513540502678428,
      "9": 0.02667884278740413,
      "10": 0.011949061717545418,
      "11": 0.004613974088149391
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.021,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.634,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6881,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5274,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5567,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5274,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6881,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.424,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.021,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3"
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T17:41:15.522425+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-06T18:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.462085,
      "confidence": 0.537915,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6667,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_TOR@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 5 - 4 KC

Final confidence53.7%

Calibrationraw 68.9% → blended 61.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=499

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6043

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.103054844566098-4.651407687398266	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.074192,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.537096,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.462904,
    "away_win_probability": 0.537096
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.074192,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.53709567875,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.689163,
    "sample_size": 499,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5471,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.618132,
    "published_confidence": 0.537096,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.514,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.772,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6043
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022676043788154236
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021494547167362467
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.021374432340296737
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.020660994170893676
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045415780370029336,
      "1": 0.07737274922716282,
      "2": 0.11384506714731592,
      "3": 0.14467228735562768,
      "4": 0.15878205549422242,
      "5": 0.15050898706300006,
      "6": 0.12321636356350173,
      "7": 0.08712028418950628,
      "8": 0.05320042733207803,
      "9": 0.028057947580315122,
      "10": 0.012780316809860444,
      "11": 0.005027733867380156
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.031280291225872815,
      "1": 0.053978102352104214,
      "2": 0.08253545176512095,
      "3": 0.11182516525988184,
      "4": 0.1342501130667546,
      "5": 0.14281238341179772,
      "6": 0.1346149114505857,
      "7": 0.11243371691004439,
      "8": 0.08321010344903924,
      "9": 0.05456719772645809,
      "10": 0.03170759748567225,
      "11": 0.01632567388564647,
      "12": 0.007448262826472395,
      "13": 0.0030110291845493057
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0596,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.842,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
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    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.031280291225872815,
          "1": 0.053978102352104214,
          "2": 0.08253545176512095,
          "3": 0.11182516525988184,
          "4": 0.1342501130667546,
          "5": 0.14281238341179772,
          "6": 0.1346149114505857,
          "7": 0.11243371691004439,
          "8": 0.08321010344903924,
          "9": 0.05456719772645809,
          "10": 0.03170759748567225,
          "11": 0.01632567388564647,
          "12": 0.007448262826472395,
          "13": 0.0030110291845493057
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.103054844566098,
      "home_runs": 4.651407687398266,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260906_WAS@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreWAS 4 - 5 LAD

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 55.2% → blended 54.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=506

H2H base featurehome net 17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7893

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.346702060006381-4.071008333179619	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.552266,
    "sample_size": 506,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5375,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.544883,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0981,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0981,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.1799,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.064,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7893
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02299759708152208
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02167060895805271
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021614182866252555
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021514453405579007
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021169468566193183
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03156296391190902,
      "1": 0.05445140161780358,
      "2": 0.08319272750280843,
      "3": 0.11256585592988398,
      "4": 0.1348879045857485,
      "5": 0.14314769311921488,
      "6": 0.13453668246265918,
      "7": 0.11198041948975336,
      "8": 0.08254456461100346,
      "9": 0.05388648894900587,
      "10": 0.03115417886337615,
      "11": 0.015951361069992925,
      "12": 0.0072330954741483735,
      "13": 0.002904662412692213
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04703922872533263,
      "1": 0.08002149201669828,
      "2": 0.11722721512575994,
      "3": 0.14788550276226267,
      "4": 0.16065642819943624,
      "5": 0.15029549507068582,
      "6": 0.12107909614645192,
      "7": 0.08399776453941023,
      "8": 0.05018126868954072,
      "9": 0.02581611557933221,
      "10": 0.011437089177339209,
      "11": 0.004363303967750139
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0821,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.414,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7893,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6061,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7893,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.064,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0821,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T01:35:24.901230+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-07T02:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.577206,
      "confidence": 0.577206,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.577206,
      "confidence": 0.577206,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.552266,
        "sample_size": 506,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5375,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.544883
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5772,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5772,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.977672,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.9352,
        "calibration_sample_size": 506,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5375,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5363,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7893,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.977672,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.577206,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.577206
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 21,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 17.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.4,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0981,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0981,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 85,
          "losses": 57,
          "win_pct": 0.5985915492957746,
          "runs_scored": 698,
          "runs_allowed": 548,
          "run_differential": 150,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.056338028169014,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "WAS",
          "games": 144,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.4652777777777778,
          "runs_scored": 743,
          "runs_allowed": 732,
          "run_differential": 11,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.0763888888888889,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9799,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1333,
        "quality_edge": 0.7893,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1799,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1799,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.064,
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          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.7893
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3315,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.7893,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1799,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.37,
          "home_runs": 4.288,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4931
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      },
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          "1": 0.08002149201669828,
          "2": 0.11722721512575994,
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          "4": 0.16065642819943624,
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          "11": 0.004363303967750139
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.346702060006381,
      "home_runs": 4.071008333179619,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260906	20260906_ARI@HOU	ARI	53.7%	55.6%	53.9%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	3-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.8068)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.555629, "sample_size": 549, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5392, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.547414, "published_confidence": 0.537308, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0075, "away_run_delta": -0.0075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2657, "recent_quality_edge": 0.42, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0257 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028871914434765344 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028198256520021697 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027142708651345313 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026509397668387346 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.026288088806053843 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06419359666232854, "1": 0.1075559576660899, "2": 0.15053767519138006, "3": 0.17600455557306435, "4": 0.1718979050715665, "5": 0.14024430347910646, "6": 0.09558018057683522, "7": 0.05441497505141891, "8": 0.02587837447015402, "9": 0.010280719795607187, "10": 0.003411756462448997 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05039973941938097, "1": 0.08548060456898467, "2": 0.12409889470554318, "3": 0.15421594380310016, "4": 0.16404072235948355, "5": 0.14936027491141235, "6": 0.11640712676904204, "7": 0.07765779760668448, "8": 0.044345709105743786, "9": 0.021676001493892642, "10": 0.009069174850179907, "11": 0.0032480104065522974 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 HOU", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 HOU", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1225, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.42, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0257, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_ATL@PHI	PHI	55.1%	57.7%	54.0%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	5-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.577032, "sample_size": 544, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5404, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.558716, "published_confidence": 0.550646, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6338, "recent_quality_edge": 0.06, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.391 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028957142613702566 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027859783321793688 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02688530464753125 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026812727793098092 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025866459685362622 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0479764458206497, "1": 0.08154721319583656, "2": 0.11916116145378729, "3": 0.1496941685205313, "4": 0.1616663332331467, "5": 0.15009936160502618, "6": 0.11980712683473858, "7": 0.08221120472907568, "8": 0.04849801045152774, "9": 0.02459582442639021, "10": 0.010723668910392517, "11": 0.00401948081889757 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0666028398499898, "1": 0.11135338341421486, "2": 0.15485237618240072, "3": 0.17911671548795566, "4": 0.17232891205379028, "5": 0.13790625409372026, "6": 0.09179384553694657, "7": 0.05082143841210047, "8": 0.02340367873493614, "9": 0.008964479725099943, "10": 0.002856076508845366 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.101, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.01, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.391, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_BOS@BAL	BOS	54.9%	58.8%	56.3%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	3-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.588311, "sample_size": 309, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5631, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.575705, "published_confidence": 0.54926, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8706, "recent_quality_edge": 0.032, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5547 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03049882763497128 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029129052452760776 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0287373179746779 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027446656397907335 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.027210678132968128 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07010185136419053, "1": 0.11685465654776503, "2": 0.16105643300879477, "3": 0.18353785288441607, "4": 0.17293732407868945, "5": 0.1347309400618435, "6": 0.08678835619498913, "7": 0.04622438086691652, "8": 0.020356178968549382, "9": 0.007412026023845708 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0529330522558248, "1": 0.08957471396449936, "2": 0.12916455573688773, "3": 0.1587086913951475, "4": 0.1661718667602485, "5": 0.14825649153749335, "6": 0.11271179593391718, "7": 0.07301707860879525, "8": 0.04030686008757087, "9": 0.0189597634434977, "10": 0.007599522283326319, "11": 0.002595607992791581 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 3 BAL", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 3 BAL", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.178, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5547, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_CHC@MIA	CHC	58.0%	77.4%	55.2%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	3-10	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.773853, "sample_size": 344, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5523, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.663076, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.045, "away_run_delta": 0.045, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.021, "recent_quality_edge": -0.508, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8414 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021766586632662708 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021024307724686348 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020790798934524665 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.02058140427980012 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020081796104199533 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05474113925362568, "1": 0.09248557805913257, "2": 0.1327201955633914, "3": 0.16177180242382172, "4": 0.16748327689503706, "5": 0.1472796991795472, "6": 0.11000619450331371, "7": 0.06979016220557906, "8": 0.03760746742703789, "9": 0.01721300845674238, "10": 0.0066917897907427856, "11": 0.0022096862420288264 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02141838948308177, "1": 0.0373145621491996, "2": 0.05871315400007526, "3": 0.08343686814699833, "4": 0.10708930505549426, "5": 0.1241365664677937, "6": 0.12996274634812632, "7": 0.12288632430268624, "8": 0.10494306654249931, "9": 0.08094116848502107, "10": 0.05638332865737556, "11": 0.03547296380042778, "12": 0.020156251222079594, "13": 0.010343977618786143, "14": 0.004794362903629624, "15": 0.002006964816725348 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 4 MIA", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 4 MIA", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.079, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.858, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8414, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_DET@CLE	CLE	52.0%	51.0%	55.5%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	2-3	hit	Variance Applied (-0.6085)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 445, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5326, "published_confidence": 0.520296, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3954, "recent_quality_edge": 0.364, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1296 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030936128617954393 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030507664113324832 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029943436422015687 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029528720676167006 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.026630592655158502 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0626441784771651, "1": 0.10510489782640324, "2": 0.1477175544276576, "3": 0.17390344366021562, "4": 0.17149488589394085, "5": 0.14166451645902767, "6": 0.09802523949779862, "7": 0.0568174396054204, "8": 0.027586228193830116, "9": 0.011219407136399588, "10": 0.003822208822141005 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06563779918418954, "1": 0.10983431833146057, "2": 0.15313436062365254, "3": 0.1778925590363783, "4": 0.1721842638178069, "5": 0.1388608041752596, "6": 0.09330747484841251, "7": 0.052240068680469924, "8": 0.024369217521464905, "9": 0.009471744451723853, "10": 0.003067389329181165 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0054, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.434, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1296, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_LAA@PIT	PIT	57.2%	56.4%	54.2%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	0-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.564108, "sample_size": 334, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5419, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.553004, "published_confidence": 0.572315, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.03, "away_run_delta": 0.03, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.8739, "recent_quality_edge": 0.432, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7192 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024512582911883154 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024336759661170947 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02322702482388879 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023060422592553576 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022093599935953903 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.037837713856658545, "1": 0.06489864284888115, "2": 0.09744290894705206, "3": 0.12807629766153478, "4": 0.1473639276816245, "5": 0.1484285724890448, "6": 0.13087229913333523, "7": 0.10101406597098472, "8": 0.06825270560141597, "9": 0.04037028266927519, "10": 0.02090295125183029, "11": 0.009474522340152003, "12": 0.0037593342339330947, "13": 0.0013057753142776021 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05166317702619178, "1": 0.08752474330673997, "2": 0.12663755015134093, "3": 0.15648621039997623, "4": 0.1651473331638514, "5": 0.1488500466282163, "6": 0.11457986428954378, "7": 0.07532680558159485, "8": 0.0422934113072668, "9": 0.020280459927108294, "10": 0.008305481251956402, "11": 0.0029049169662131173 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.131, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.432, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7192, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_MIL@CIN	MIL	53.0%	67.3%	56.0%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	8-12	miss	Variance Applied (0.1063)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.672796, "sample_size": 268, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.616248, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.1752, "recent_quality_edge": -0.188, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.4797 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017023093825884388 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016739888933043106 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.016403178694701027 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016130287026946393 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.015810720684398212 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02917056483878335, "1": 0.05043835988336487, "2": 0.07758749934123599, "3": 0.10617865861941982, "4": 0.12926989481530662, "5": 0.14001424971470985, "6": 0.13491547314288274, "7": 0.11565541336039312, "8": 0.08820330340013718, "9": 0.05984369727772767, "10": 0.03612157389570972, "11": 0.019396777953676177, "12": 0.009266318088974438, "13": 0.003938215667678543 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.016107833107670073, "1": 0.02822016343514558, "2": 0.04515534667281198, "3": 0.06599120975915397, "4": 0.08808262564388794, "5": 0.10737957157673256, "6": 0.1195584661357823, "7": 0.12158115235106635, "8": 0.11292222553499955, "9": 0.09578992987328719, "10": 0.07421428960374048, "11": 0.052514890812358606, "12": 0.03393943841743011, "13": 0.02003337358673847, "14": 0.010800174705917643, "15": 0.005317833364978472, "16": 0.002391475418298811 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 5 CIN", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 5 CIN", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0228, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.258, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4797, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_MIN@CHW	CHW	53.0%	53.4%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	1-10	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.533633, "sample_size": 228, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5614, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.547517, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6197, "recent_quality_edge": -0.088, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.372 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022441292833995253 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022355555947382734 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022223089030048607 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02213818579036257 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019763210303638448 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03824862498783499, "1": 0.06557886491913252, "2": 0.09835366458602454, "3": 0.12903150988628798, "4": 0.14807426821737474, "5": 0.14864215508962544, "6": 0.1305217758670224, "7": 0.10025419115150105, "8": 0.06735978360670102, "9": 0.039589262524061614, "10": 0.020353201051060567, "11": 0.00915306646638403, "12": 0.0036006349444913177, "13": 0.0012389967024977956 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03995226370969719, "1": 0.06839640177830318, "2": 0.102115411200652, "3": 0.1329583138223608, "4": 0.15097529244287414, "5": 0.14950731181641538, "6": 0.12911751489249543, "7": 0.09724651733829541, "8": 0.06387473743193835, "9": 0.036588985780038406, "10": 0.01827838359400034, "11": 0.007963268803483503, "12": 0.003025597389445706 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 6 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 6 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0106, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.018, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.372, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_NYY@SD	NYY	53.6%	56.4%	53.3%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 379, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.533, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5483, "published_confidence": 0.535664, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0225, "away_run_delta": 0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8556, "recent_quality_edge": -0.628, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.776 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.035144330896002836 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03416477913160165 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.033300293859423145 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.032372139566157435 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030159338785342063 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08708105303156216, "1": 0.14294604250781281, "2": 0.18814815983131972, "3": 0.1985670521257218, "4": 0.1680326885971484, "5": 0.1140144085873768, "6": 0.06203047058526222, "7": 0.02706012432073841, "8": 0.009465288892642414, "9": 0.0026547115204152874 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06494075363425493, "1": 0.10873542055144429, "2": 0.15188490971929633, "3": 0.17698973983735916, "4": 0.17205663661648352, "5": 0.13953547713728362, "6": 0.09440342025879006, "7": 0.05328202122630316, "8": 0.025087854824483693, "9": 0.0098545373345676, "10": 0.0032292288597336656 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 SD", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 SD", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0256, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.628, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.776, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_OAK@SEA	SEA	54.4%	58.4%	56.2%	50.0%	6.0-7.0	0-2	hit	Variance Applied (-0.0298)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.584126, "sample_size": 313, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.573213, "published_confidence": 0.5442, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.8846, "recent_quality_edge": -0.636, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3524 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016948130318462047 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016626114536303676 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016333484949892348 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01602314747710444 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015929528838634983 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.01999512606490119, "1": 0.03488606795069833, "2": 0.05513382149727663, "3": 0.07892641323361754, "4": 0.10234457711374982, "5": 0.1202113577481027, "6": 0.12789818063750655, "7": 0.12325979145237619, "8": 0.10760109433235959, "9": 0.08508444015367117, "10": 0.06094271534895083, "11": 0.03953954372582911, "12": 0.023236981050339913, "13": 0.012369893255809634, "14": 0.00596472461841839, "15": 0.0026052718163923692 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.023831431534051588, "1": 0.041417912205042304, "2": 0.06469710778187707, "3": 0.09083226010461787, "4": 0.11461830071629439, "5": 0.1299949260687764, "6": 0.13251267714665171, "7": 0.1214079275505291, "8": 0.09997588429701589, "9": 0.07399494531728523, "10": 0.04922292798918818, "11": 0.029430078800301903, "12": 0.015815174820064247, "13": 0.007638624470958826, "14": 0.003316002990804346, "15": 0.0012938182065410258 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "OAK 6 - 7 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "OAK 6 - 7 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0113, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.706, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3524, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_SF@NYM	NYM	51.6%	51.0%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	2-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 326, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5613, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5357, "published_confidence": 0.516328, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 19.0, "absolute_net_margin": 19.0, "home_average_margin": 3.8, "home_run_delta": 0.1096, "away_run_delta": -0.1096, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2156, "recent_quality_edge": -0.316, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0295 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023104639671639306 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022938628109151326 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022617289990477303 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022454780135144146 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02053097243441951 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03963973572003363, "1": 0.06788067220129648, "2": 0.10143194013117275, "3": 0.13225635362116245, "4": 0.15047750136206736, "5": 0.1493962897320471, "6": 0.12942592175391116, "7": 0.09783988545484841, "8": 0.06453923579871003, "9": 0.03714881081196126, "10": 0.018658607426195305, "11": 0.008177616744498862, "12": 0.003127429242094937 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.041474296512703505, "1": 0.07091100629273336, "2": 0.10546295972367777, "3": 0.13643881808629627, "4": 0.15354215389346945, "5": 0.15030346587199986, "6": 0.12798587688326382, "7": 0.09479966181589564, "8": 0.06108058872999838, "9": 0.034233501895415214, "10": 0.01668979978507864, "11": 0.007077870509468031 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 4 - 6 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 4 - 6 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0237, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.106, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0295, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_STL@COL	STL	55.9%	55.2%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	10-8	hit	Variance Applied (-0.4562)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.551688, "sample_size": 335, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5433, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.547494, "published_confidence": 0.55935, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0587, "recent_quality_edge": -0.116, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7287 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021981970754766933 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021536953359262374 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020796433974236344 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02055910253920962 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020375417360837828 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04125997595011161, "1": 0.07055136147941002, "2": 0.1049583829122047, "3": 0.13585141494316946, "4": 0.15298417351667457, "5": 0.14988706183313527, "6": 0.12776652750925838, "7": 0.09475569905399357, "8": 0.06114048671795777, "9": 0.034323198084304604, "10": 0.016764164164732323, "11": 0.007123794234677111, "12": 0.002633759600370762 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.032035320817720384, "1": 0.05524178978136913, "2": 0.08428808304801606, "3": 0.11379531584212207, "4": 0.13593846668047416, "5": 0.14368787469620836, "6": 0.13438712035770664, "7": 0.11121284416615333, "8": 0.08143517235311218, "9": 0.05276292518430291, "10": 0.030248614186622787, "11": 0.015344116000767563, "12": 0.006887126123388148, "13": 0.002735230762036364 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "STL 5 - 4 COL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "STL 5 - 4 COL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0005, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.186, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "COL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7287, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_TB@TEX	TB	52.7%	51.0%	54.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	6-8	miss	Variance Applied (-0.219)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 502, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5438, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52695, "published_confidence": 0.527394, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8304, "recent_quality_edge": -0.424, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6881 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025938744825901822 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02439175902557075 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02409278991456637 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023986608373723357 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023780956756736374 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.048472876136283385, "1": 0.08235435659634621, "2": 0.1201800533354016, "3": 0.1506385861619369, "4": 0.16218029797481978, "5": 0.14997469305342576, "6": 0.11912307459493683, "7": 0.08127029405520644, "8": 0.047623991581022825, "9": 0.023970537861358138, "10": 0.010363054685627399, "11": 0.003848183963634769 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.046400163544552585, "1": 0.07897971340022887, "2": 0.11590071791069959, "3": 0.1466328342819337, "4": 0.1599377060580385, "5": 0.15039902707145, "6": 0.12193088369347779, "7": 0.08522302517867712, "8": 0.0513540502678428, "9": 0.02667884278740413, "10": 0.011949061717545418, "11": 0.004613974088149391 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.021, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.634, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6881, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_TOR@KC	TOR	53.7%	68.9%	54.7%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.689163, "sample_size": 499, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5471, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.618132, "published_confidence": 0.537096, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0115, "away_run_delta": -0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.514, "recent_quality_edge": -0.772, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6043 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022676043788154236 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021494547167362467 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021374432340296737 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021316508903071064 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020660994170893676 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.045415780370029336, "1": 0.07737274922716282, "2": 0.11384506714731592, "3": 0.14467228735562768, "4": 0.15878205549422242, "5": 0.15050898706300006, "6": 0.12321636356350173, "7": 0.08712028418950628, "8": 0.05320042733207803, "9": 0.028057947580315122, "10": 0.012780316809860444, "11": 0.005027733867380156 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.031280291225872815, "1": 0.053978102352104214, "2": 0.08253545176512095, "3": 0.11182516525988184, "4": 0.1342501130667546, "5": 0.14281238341179772, "6": 0.1346149114505857, "7": 0.11243371691004439, "8": 0.08321010344903924, "9": 0.05456719772645809, "10": 0.03170759748567225, "11": 0.01632567388564647, "12": 0.007448262826472395, "13": 0.0030110291845493057 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0596, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.842, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6043, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260906	20260906_WAS@LAD	LAD	53.0%	55.2%	53.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	5-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.552266, "sample_size": 506, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5375, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.544883, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 17.0, "absolute_net_margin": 17.0, "home_average_margin": 3.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0981, "away_run_delta": -0.0981, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.1799, "recent_quality_edge": 0.064, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7893 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02299759708152208 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02167060895805271 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021614182866252555 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021514453405579007 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021169468566193183 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03156296391190902, "1": 0.05445140161780358, "2": 0.08319272750280843, "3": 0.11256585592988398, "4": 0.1348879045857485, "5": 0.14314769311921488, "6": 0.13453668246265918, "7": 0.11198041948975336, "8": 0.08254456461100346, "9": 0.05388648894900587, "10": 0.03115417886337615, "11": 0.015951361069992925, "12": 0.0072330954741483735, "13": 0.002904662412692213 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04703922872533263, "1": 0.08002149201669828, "2": 0.11722721512575994, "3": 0.14788550276226267, "4": 0.16065642819943624, "5": 0.15029549507068582, "6": 0.12107909614645192, "7": 0.08399776453941023, "8": 0.05018126868954072, "9": 0.02581611557933221, "10": 0.011437089177339209, "11": 0.004363303967750139 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0821, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.414, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7893, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.4667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.2 }
R	{ "mae": 1.9333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0667 }
ER	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.3667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1667 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.1, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0333 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.2667, "mae_innings": 1.0889, "bias_outs": 0.9333 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260906

20260906_ARI@HOU

away

Eduardo Rodriguez

True

6.0

-1

6/3

1/2

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.586826347305389,
      "WHIP": 1.215568862275449,
      "IP": 167.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.964,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1952,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0166,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 0.9955,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 517.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 103.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0543,
            "WHIP": 1.1087,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22826,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97826,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03261
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 249.0,
            "Pitches": 977.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.9,
            "Pitches": 97.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2034,
            "WHIP": 1.322,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35593,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0339,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28814,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81356,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0678
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 167.0,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 122.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 686.0,
            "Pitches": 2677.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7143,
            "R": 1.8571,
            "H": 5.2857,
            "BB": 1.9643,
            "SO": 4.3571,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 95.6071
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5868,
            "WHIP": 1.2156,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28743,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88623,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32934,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73054,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08383
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.902,
        "predicted_H": 5.42,
        "predicted_BB": 1.933,
        "predicted_SO": 5.288,
        "predicted_HR": 0.414,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8531,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2256
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.902,
          "final": 1.5286,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.42,
          "final": 5.6601,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.933,
          "final": 1.5467,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.288,
          "final": 4.7548,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.414,
          "final": 0.6566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8531,
          "final": 2.8531,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2256,
          "final": 1.2256,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.2033898305084745,
        "WHIP": 1.3220338983050848,
        "K9": 7.322033898305085,
        "HR9": 0.6101694915254238,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8691796791275033,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5245,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 635.0,
        "run_differential": -2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.014,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4266,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
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          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
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        "games": 143,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5105,
        "runs_scored": 645.0,
        "runs_allowed": 682.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2587,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5105,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7692,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0472
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0117,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0071,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0017,
        "strikeout": 0.9986
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "593958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "593958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 17.8,
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            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.9152,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2781,
            "whiff_percent": 20.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.1
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          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0093,
            "command_and_miss": -0.425,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0874
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "593958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 104,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 104,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.31573743838237,
              "release_spin_rate": 2174.324470429921,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 104,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.31573743838237,
                "release_spin_rate": 2174.324470429921,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3157,
              "release_spin_rate": 2174.3245,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0874,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6242,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1952,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0166,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "593958",
            "espn_id": 32675,
            "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 8,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 8,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 239,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 11,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 7,
              "era_value": 2.5868,
              "era_rank": 7.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 5,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 132,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 167.0,
              "ip_rank": 6,
              "h_value": 148.0,
              "h_rank": 16,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 111,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 103,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 21,
              "k_value": 122.0,
              "k_rank": 57,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.5748506,
              "k_per_9_rank": 256.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2155,
              "whip_rank": 31.0,
              "war_value": 5.04,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0166,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0166,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9514,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_ARI@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_ARI@HOU

home

Peter Lambert

True

5.1

7.0

2/7

1/0

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2437185929648242,
      "IP": 132.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.528,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9823,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
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      "homer_factor": 0.9593,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 40,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.375,
            "WHIP": 1.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70833,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95833,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 95.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2722,
            "WHIP": 1.3861,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47468,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93038,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4557,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08228,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05696
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 132.2,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 566.0,
            "Pitches": 2270.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.5417,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 5.4583,
            "HR": 0.5417,
            "BF": 23.5833,
            "Pitches": 94.5833
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6633,
            "WHIP": 1.2437,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40704,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82161,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42211,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98744,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09799
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.85,
        "predicted_H": 5.098,
        "predicted_BB": 2.563,
        "predicted_SO": 5.118,
        "predicted_HR": 0.457,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.99,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4905
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.85,
          "final": 2.4906,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.098,
          "final": 3.788,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.563,
          "final": 1.9021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.118,
          "final": 5.4909,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.457,
          "final": 0.2638,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.99,
          "final": 4.99,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4905,
          "final": 1.4905,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.272151898734177,
        "WHIP": 1.3860759493670884,
        "K9": 9.740506329113924,
        "HR9": 0.5126582278481012,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9910164630794449,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5105,
        "runs_scored": 645.0,
        "runs_allowed": 682.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2587,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5105,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7692,
        "offense_index": 1.0071,
        "defense_index": 0.9391,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0472
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5245,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 635.0,
        "run_differential": -2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.014,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4266,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4406,
        "offense_index": 0.9883,
        "defense_index": 1.0086,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0191
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0281,
        "offense_edge": 0.0071,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0117,
        "defense_strength": -0.0609,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0086,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9998,
        "run_prevention": 1.0028,
        "strikeout": 1.0018
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663567",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663567",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9096,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4905,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.352,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0607,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0287
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663567",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.36448787171314,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.202787194397,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.36448787171314,
                "release_spin_rate": 2218.202787194397,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3645,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.2028,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0287,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2047,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2078,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9823,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 0.9593,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663567",
            "espn_id": 39898,
            "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 40,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 40,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 331,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 68,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 73,
              "era_value": 3.6633,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 62,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 82,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 132.2,
              "ip_rank": 66,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 95,
              "er_value": 54.0,
              "er_rank": 85,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 114,
              "bb_value": 56.0,
              "bb_rank": 19,
              "k_value": 131.0,
              "k_rank": 51,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.886934,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2437,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.8,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9593,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_ARI@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_ATL@PHI

away

Tyler Mahle

True

5.2

6.0

-2

5/4

0/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.248,
      "WHIP": 1.288,
      "IP": 125.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.435,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.053,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0045,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0057,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 153,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4835,
            "WHIP": 0.956,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16484,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79121,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16484,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05495,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.7,
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            "Pitches": 90.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6229,
            "WHIP": 1.08,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08571
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
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            "IP": 125.0,
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            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 119.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 2.6087,
            "H": 5.1739,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.248,
            "WHIP": 1.288,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.472,
            "H_per_IP": 0.952,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.336,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.136
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.438,
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        "predicted_ERA": 2.8,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1152
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.814,
          "final": 1.4677,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.065,
          "final": 5.0373,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.438,
          "final": 0.8262,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.817,
          "final": 4.6185,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.639,
          "final": 0.7926,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8,
          "final": 2.8,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1152,
          "final": 1.1152,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 13,
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        "ERA": 2.6228571428571428,
        "WHIP": 1.0799999999999998,
        "K9": 8.794285714285714,
        "HR9": 0.7714285714285714,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7978189043091014,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5915,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 541.0,
        "run_differential": 119.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.838,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6479,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8099,
        "offense_index": 1.0374,
        "defense_index": 1.176,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2506
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5634,
        "runs_scored": 637.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2465,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4859,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2394,
        "offense_index": 1.0013,
        "defense_index": 1.0568,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.1,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1542
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0964,
        "offense_edge": 0.0374,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0013,
        "defense_strength": 0.176,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0568,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0091,
        "run_prevention": 0.9778,
        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641816",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641816",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 446.0,
            "k_percent": 23.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4658,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0305,
            "whiff_percent": 23.3,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1319,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0421,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0193
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641816",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.53121594004485,
              "release_spin_rate": 2152.2110299296696,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.53121594004485,
                "release_spin_rate": 2152.2110299296696,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5312,
              "release_spin_rate": 2152.211,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0193,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.1381,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.053,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0045,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641816",
            "espn_id": 34973,
            "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 153,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 153,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 342,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 75,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 78,
              "era_value": 4.248,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 140,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 16,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 125.0,
              "ip_rank": 85,
              "h_value": 119.0,
              "h_rank": 74,
              "er_value": 59.0,
              "er_rank": 64,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 64,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 69,
              "k_value": 121.0,
              "k_rank": 60,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.712,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 1.288,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.18,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0045,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0045,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_ATL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_ATL@PHI

home

Aaron Nola

True

5.1

7.0

-2

5/4

2/1

1/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 148.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.286,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.0
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 76,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
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      "report_date": "20260906",
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
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            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
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            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.8,
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            "SO": 7.2,
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            "Pitches": 98.0
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
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        },
        "last_10": {
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            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
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            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 946.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
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            "H": 5.1,
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            "SO": 6.3,
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            "Pitches": 94.6
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3036,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.91071,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
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        },
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            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 156.0,
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            "SO": 157.0,
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            "H": 5.5714,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3986,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.05405,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34459,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06081,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.085,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.045,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2915
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.085,
          "final": 2.4638,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.135,
          "final": 5.0791,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.045,
          "final": 2.0264,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 6.379,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 3.3757,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2915,
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          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 22,
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        "K9": 10.125,
        "HR9": 2.0892857142857144,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
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      "edges": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "pitches": 97,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_id": 33709,
            "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 76,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 76,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 239,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 11,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 63,
              "era_value": 4.9256,
              "era_rank": 47.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 102,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 16,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 148.0,
              "ip_rank": 41,
              "h_value": 156.0,
              "h_rank": 10,
              "er_value": 81.0,
              "er_rank": 7,
              "hr_value": 32.0,
              "hr_rank": 3,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 30,
              "k_value": 157.0,
              "k_rank": 24,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.5472975,
              "k_per_9_rank": 15.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3986,
              "whip_rank": 46.0,
              "war_value": 1.96,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9965,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9965,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0548,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0314,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_ATL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_BOS@BAL

away

Payton Tolle

True

6.0

4/4

0/0

7/12

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2290076335877864,
      "WHIP": 1.099236641221374,
      "IP": 131.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.696,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7579,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9356,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0463,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 0.9167,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 27.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.257,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 54,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 466.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 0.9333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 73.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 889.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.3,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 88.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0176,
            "WHIP": 1.0765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33529,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82941,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24706,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12353
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.0,
            "ER": 47.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 107.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 147.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 530.0,
            "Pitches": 2004.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0435,
            "R": 2.2174,
            "H": 4.6522,
            "BB": 1.6087,
            "SO": 6.3913,
            "HR": 0.6522,
            "BF": 23.0435,
            "Pitches": 87.1304
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.229,
            "WHIP": 1.0992,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35878,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81679,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28244,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12214,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1145
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.149,
        "predicted_H": 4.635,
        "predicted_BB": 1.652,
        "predicted_SO": 6.892,
        "predicted_HR": 0.687,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3067,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0748
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.149,
          "final": 1.2347,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.635,
          "final": 4.3648,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.652,
          "final": 0.9491,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.892,
          "final": 4.8107,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.687,
          "final": 0.3947,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3067,
          "final": 3.3067,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0748,
          "final": 1.0748,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 73,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.0176470588235293,
        "WHIP": 1.076470588235294,
        "K9": 11.594117647058823,
        "HR9": 1.111764705882353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8421445345612022,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.5,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5455,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": 84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5874,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4685,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8811,
        "offense_index": 0.9974,
        "defense_index": 1.1544,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1108
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4825,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1888,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4755,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6643,
        "offense_index": 0.999,
        "defense_index": 0.9605,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0731
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1839,
        "offense_edge": -0.0026,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.001,
        "defense_strength": 0.1544,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0395,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.012,
        "run_prevention": 0.9752,
        "strikeout": 1.0056
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "801139",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "801139",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 478.0,
            "k_percent": 27.7,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.257,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1624,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3902,
            "whiff_percent": 27.5,
            "swing_percent": 54.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8942,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5964,
            "regression_edge": 0.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.5429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1689
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "801139",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.89223250197915,
              "release_spin_rate": 2257.467793172286,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.89223250197915,
                "release_spin_rate": 2257.467793172286,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8922,
              "release_spin_rate": 2257.4678,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1689,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2064,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7579,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9356,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0463,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 0.9167,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.031,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "801139",
            "espn_id": 4966140,
            "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 54,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 54,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 342,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 75,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 43,
              "era_value": 3.229,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 62,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 131.0,
              "ip_rank": 72,
              "h_value": 107.0,
              "h_rank": 101,
              "er_value": 47.0,
              "er_rank": 115,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 84,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 103,
              "k_value": 147.0,
              "k_rank": 30,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.0992365,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0992,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9356,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9356,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9167,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0463,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_BOS@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_BOS@BAL

home

Kyle Bradish

True

5.1

4.0

-4

-3

4/2

2/4

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "IP": 148.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.481,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0997,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.0281,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.6,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 147,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680694",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0,
            "WHIP": 1.6667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14815
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 914.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4182,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49091,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 148.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 146.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 633.0,
            "Pitches": 2488.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4444,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 5.4074,
            "BB": 2.3704,
            "SO": 5.0741,
            "HR": 0.6296,
            "BF": 23.4444,
            "Pitches": 92.1481
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0135,
            "WHIP": 1.4189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44595,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98649,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43243,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92568,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11486
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.714,
        "predicted_H": 5.983,
        "predicted_BB": 1.936,
        "predicted_SO": 4.29,
        "predicted_HR": 0.697,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5802,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4847
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.714,
          "final": 2.833,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.983,
          "final": 5.1581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.936,
          "final": 1.9626,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.29,
          "final": 4.5854,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.697,
          "final": 0.4071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5802,
          "final": 4.5802,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4847,
          "final": 1.4847,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 6,
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        "K9": 6.709090909090909,
        "HR9": 0.9818181818181818,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0068838393740362,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680694",
      "player_name": "Kyle Bradish",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4825,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1888,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4755,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6643,
        "offense_index": 0.999,
        "defense_index": 0.9605,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0731
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5455,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": 84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5874,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4685,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8811,
        "offense_index": 0.9974,
        "defense_index": 1.1544,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1108
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1839,
        "offense_edge": -0.001,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0026,
        "defense_strength": -0.0395,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1544,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9916,
        "run_prevention": 1.0127,
        "strikeout": 0.9947
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680694",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680694",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 555.0,
            "k_percent": 21.6,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.319,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0348,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9564,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1841,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1407,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0357
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680694",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.5144544635341,
              "release_spin_rate": 2427.3950290002913,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.5144544635341,
                "release_spin_rate": 2427.3950290002913,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5145,
              "release_spin_rate": 2427.395,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0357,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2552,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0997,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.0281,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680694",
            "espn_id": 4311625,
            "player_name": "Kyle Bradish",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 147,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 147,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 271,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 32,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 33,
              "era_value": 4.0135,
              "era_rank": 34.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 82,
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": 8,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 148.0,
              "ip_rank": 41,
              "h_value": 146.0,
              "h_rank": 20,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 44,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 64,
              "bb_value": 64.0,
              "bb_rank": 10,
              "k_value": 137.0,
              "k_rank": 43,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.331081,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4189,
              "whip_rank": 47.0,
              "war_value": 1.24,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_BOS@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_CHC@MIA

away

Clay Holmes

True

6.0

4.1

-5

2/6

3/3

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.093877551020408,
      "WHIP": 1.0653061224489795,
      "IP": 81.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0058,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9995,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 0.9804,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 19.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.252,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 27,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 81.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.094,
      "season_WHIP": 1.065,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 430.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5517,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.17241,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68966,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31034,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03448
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 909.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 90.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1477,
            "WHIP": 1.0568,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23864,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80114,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03409
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 81.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 326.0,
            "Pitches": 1258.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3571,
            "R": 1.3571,
            "H": 4.2857,
            "BB": 1.9286,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.2857,
            "BF": 23.2857,
            "Pitches": 89.8571
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0939,
            "WHIP": 1.0653,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23265,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73469,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33061,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04898
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.672,
        "predicted_H": 4.628,
        "predicted_BB": 1.935,
        "predicted_SO": 4.554,
        "predicted_HR": 0.388,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5555,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1144
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.672,
          "final": 2.2845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.628,
          "final": 3.8772,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.935,
          "final": 2.4262,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.554,
          "final": 5.6821,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.388,
          "final": 0.6703,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5555,
          "final": 2.5555,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1144,
          "final": 1.1144,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 2.147727272727273,
        "WHIP": 1.0568181818181819,
        "K9": 7.210227272727273,
        "HR9": 0.3068181818181818,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7437872484649457,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5664,
        "runs_scored": 765.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 139.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.972,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3776,
        "offense_index": 1.1944,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 621.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": 8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0559,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3427,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2867,
        "offense_index": 0.9696,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0311
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2069,
        "offense_edge": 0.1944,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0304,
        "defense_strength": 0.0231,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0448,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0102,
        "run_prevention": 0.9825,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605280",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605280",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 277.0,
            "k_percent": 19.3,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.252,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1319,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3882,
            "whiff_percent": 21.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4254,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2986,
            "regression_edge": -1.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4857,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0422
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605280",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.12254093725541,
              "release_spin_rate": 2162.3889026804495,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.12254093725541,
                "release_spin_rate": 2162.3889026804495,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1225,
              "release_spin_rate": 2162.3889,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0422,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3015,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0058,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9995,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 0.9804,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.053,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605280",
            "espn_id": 32827,
            "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 27,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 27,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 470,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 144,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 78,
              "era_value": 2.0938,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 102,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 81.2,
              "ip_rank": 153,
              "h_value": 60.0,
              "h_rank": 190,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 325,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 365,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 189,
              "k_value": 63.0,
              "k_rank": 207,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.9428573,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0653,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.21,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9995,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9995,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9804,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9651,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_CHC@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_CHC@MIA

home

Tyler Phillips

True

5.0

-1

3/5

5/1

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4259818731117826,
      "WHIP": 1.3323262839879155,
      "IP": 110.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.604,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2776,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0236,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9903,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 1.0562,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 108,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 110.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.426,
      "season_WHIP": 1.332,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 348.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 17.6,
            "Pitches": 69.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2381,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80952,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 41.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 174.0,
            "Pitches": 654.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 17.4,
            "Pitches": 65.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2661,
            "WHIP": 1.2581,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3629,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89516,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3629,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91935,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14516
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 110.1,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 100.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 90.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 471.0,
            "Pitches": 1770.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.2727,
            "R": 1.3636,
            "H": 3.0303,
            "BB": 1.4242,
            "SO": 2.7273,
            "HR": 0.4242,
            "BF": 14.2727,
            "Pitches": 53.6364
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.426,
            "WHIP": 1.3323,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38066,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90634,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42598,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12689
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.543,
        "predicted_H": 3.622,
        "predicted_BB": 1.661,
        "predicted_SO": 4.11,
        "predicted_HR": 0.585,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
      "form_weight": 0.5944,
      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.543,
          "final": 2.5396,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.622,
          "final": 3.3697,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.661,
          "final": 3.0153,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.11,
          "final": 3.6598,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.585,
          "final": 1.1589,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3494,
          "final": 3.3494,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2743,
          "final": 1.2743,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 41.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.266129032258065,
        "WHIP": 1.2580645161290325,
        "K9": 8.274193548387098,
        "HR9": 1.306451612903226,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8746386047699309,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
          "prior_weight": 0.1316
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 621.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": 8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0559,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3427,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2867,
        "offense_index": 0.9696,
        "defense_index": 1.0448,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0311
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5664,
        "runs_scored": 765.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 139.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.972,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3776,
        "offense_index": 1.1944,
        "defense_index": 1.0231,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1758
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2069,
        "offense_edge": -0.0304,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1944,
        "defense_strength": 0.0448,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0231,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9853,
        "run_prevention": 1.037,
        "strikeout": 0.9782
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663969",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663969",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 421.0,
            "k_percent": 19.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2389,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3724,
            "whiff_percent": 26.3,
            "swing_percent": 45.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3235,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1664,
            "regression_edge": -0.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.058
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663969",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 65,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 65,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.84117592259537,
              "release_spin_rate": 2059.5043972880403,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 65,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.84117592259537,
                "release_spin_rate": 2059.5043972880403,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8412,
              "release_spin_rate": 2059.5044,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.058,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4141,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2776,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0236,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9903,
          "walk_factor": 1.016,
          "homer_factor": 1.0562,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663969",
            "espn_id": 41247,
            "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 108,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 108,
              "gp_value": 33.0,
              "gp_rank": 198,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 127,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 156,
              "era_value": 3.4259,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 182,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 88,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 110.1,
              "ip_rank": 105,
              "h_value": 100.0,
              "h_rank": 112,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 139,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 103,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 47,
              "k_value": 90.0,
              "k_rank": 122,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3413897,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3323,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.61,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0236,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0236,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0562,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_CHC@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_DET@CLE

away

Jackson Jobe

True

5.0

2/4

1/2

3/7

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.628571428571429,
      "WHIP": 1.4571428571428573,
      "IP": 23.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2762,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0235,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9743,
      "walk_factor": 1.0036,
      "homer_factor": 1.0579,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.359,
      "xwoba": 0.36,
      "barrel_percent": 11.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 395,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 409.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6286,
            "WHIP": 1.4571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.3997,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 5,
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      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4577,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4014,
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        "recent": {
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1049,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0173,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0064
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695549",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695549",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.36,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.4,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695549",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 77,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6919,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 1.1262,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2762,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
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            "metrics": {
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              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0106,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0106,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0016,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9884,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_DET@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_DET@CLE

home

Gavin Williams

True

5.1

6.0

2/4

1/3

9/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8098159509202456,
      "WHIP": 1.0920245398773005,
      "IP": 163.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1922,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9837,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.104,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.1274,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 11.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.4,
      "whiff_percent": 32.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 49,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.25,
            "WHIP": 1.375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45833,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 9.4,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6529,
            "WHIP": 0.9176,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40588,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24706,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.65882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19412
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 163.0,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 217.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 657.0,
            "Pitches": 2616.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4643,
            "R": 2.6071,
            "H": 4.5714,
            "BB": 1.7857,
            "SO": 7.75,
            "HR": 0.9643,
            "BF": 23.4643,
            "Pitches": 93.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8098,
            "WHIP": 1.092,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42331,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78528,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30675,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33129,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16564
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.567,
        "predicted_H": 4.342,
        "predicted_BB": 1.867,
        "predicted_SO": 7.754,
        "predicted_HR": 1.064,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4144,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1862
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.567,
          "final": 2.3323,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.342,
          "final": 3.3724,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.867,
          "final": 1.5081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 7.754,
          "final": 8.2699,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.064,
          "final": 0.6235,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4144,
          "final": 4.4144,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1862,
          "final": 1.1862,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 38,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 94,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 3.652941176470588,
        "WHIP": 0.9176470588235294,
        "K9": 14.92941176470588,
        "HR9": 1.7470588235294116,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9096445345612022,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 143,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5035,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1049,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.035,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1399,
        "offense_index": 0.9009,
        "defense_index": 1.0819,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -10.0
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4577,
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        "runs_allowed": 574.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0423,
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          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
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        "quality_score": -0.0618
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0991,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0173,
        "defense_strength": 0.0819,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.108,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0029
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 33.0,
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            "woba": 0.294,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.4365,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0622,
            "whiff_percent": 32.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.152,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1471,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.3571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0286,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0599
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.94628314658443,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.2769819363643,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.94628314658443,
                "release_spin_rate": 2281.2769819363643,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9463,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.277,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0599,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.428,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1922,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9837,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.104,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.1274,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_id": 4345076,
            "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 49,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 49,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 239,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 11,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 55,
              "era_value": 3.8098,
              "era_rank": 27.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 11,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 82,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 163.0,
              "ip_rank": 13,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 59,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 31,
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": 5,
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": 36,
              "k_value": 217.0,
              "k_rank": 3,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.981595,
              "k_per_9_rank": 6.0,
              "whip_value": 1.092,
              "whip_rank": 12.0,
              "war_value": 2.49,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1274,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.104,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_DET@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_LAA@PIT

away

Walbert Ureña

True

5.2

8.0

-3

2/3

1/1

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.845945945945946,
      "WHIP": 1.2567567567567568,
      "IP": 123.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.29,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3891,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9669,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0177,
      "walk_factor": 1.06,
      "homer_factor": 0.9252,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 12.2,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.286,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 33,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 123.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.846,
      "season_WHIP": 1.257,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.125,
            "WHIP": 1.2917,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45833,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79167,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04167,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 904.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4387,
            "WHIP": 1.1419,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27097,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61935,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52258,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9871,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05806
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 123.1,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 91.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 525.0,
            "Pitches": 2120.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.56,
            "R": 1.84,
            "H": 3.64,
            "BB": 2.56,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.32,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8459,
            "WHIP": 1.2568,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31622,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73784,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51892,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06486
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.965,
        "predicted_H": 3.875,
        "predicted_BB": 2.482,
        "predicted_SO": 5.069,
        "predicted_HR": 0.424,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4789,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2506
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.965,
          "final": 1.9797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.875,
          "final": 3.0867,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.482,
          "final": 1.8589,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.069,
          "final": 5.8809,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.424,
          "final": 0.2457,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4789,
          "final": 3.4789,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2506,
          "final": 1.2506,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.438709677419355,
        "WHIP": 1.1419354838709679,
        "K9": 8.883870967741936,
        "HR9": 0.5225806451612903,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7786507015441244,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "player_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.3803,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5986,
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2724
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
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        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4895,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
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        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1748,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6713,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
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        "available": true,
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      },
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0316,
        "strikeout": 0.9839
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700712",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700712",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.2241
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700712",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.87892413530693,
              "release_spin_rate": 2097.4669612279217,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.87892413530693,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.8789,
              "release_spin_rate": 2097.467,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2241,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.601,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3891,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9669,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "700712",
            "espn_id": 5197476,
            "player_name": "Walbert Urena",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 33,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 33,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 311,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 75,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 43,
              "era_value": 2.8459,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 26,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 267,
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              "h_rank": 124,
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              "er_rank": 148,
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              "bb_rank": 10,
              "k_value": 120.0,
              "k_rank": 65,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.756757,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2567,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.0,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.9252,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_LAA@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_LAA@PIT

home

Paul Skenes

True

5.2

5.1

-1

2/4

3/1

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 149.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.345,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.0566,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.1,
      "woba": 0.297,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 53,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.4,
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            "SO": 4.6,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.48,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
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        },
        "last_10": {
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            "Pitches": 903.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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            "Pitches": 2536.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.3571,
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          "rates": {
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 4.786,
        "predicted_BB": 2.132,
        "predicted_SO": 5.335,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.3716,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3417
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    },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.504,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 2.4914,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.335,
          "final": 3.9543,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.476,
          "final": 0.2789,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.3716,
          "final": 4.3716,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.3417,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "HR9": 0.6835443037974683,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0304151972566602,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.2,
              "percent_delta": 0.04,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.2,
              "percent_delta": 0.04,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": 0.2,
            "percent_delta": 0.04,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": 0.2,
            "percent_delta": 0.04,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4895,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1748,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6713,
        "offense_index": 1.0817,
        "defense_index": 0.9591,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0475
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.3803,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
        "runs_allowed": 653.0,
        "run_differential": -76.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5352,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0634,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5986,
        "offense_index": 0.907,
        "defense_index": 0.9743,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2724
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3199,
        "offense_edge": 0.0817,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.093,
        "defense_strength": -0.0409,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0257,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0153,
        "run_prevention": 0.9732,
        "strikeout": 1.017
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694973",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694973",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 572.0,
            "k_percent": 28.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.1,
            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1317,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9665,
            "whiff_percent": 28.1,
            "swing_percent": 50.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4265,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6986,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.525,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1526
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694973",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.6007202524121,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.096720068865,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.6007202524121,
                "release_spin_rate": 2107.096720068865,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6007,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0967,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1526,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0897,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4841,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9588,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0566,
          "walk_factor": 0.958,
          "homer_factor": 0.9812,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694973",
            "espn_id": 4719507,
            "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 53,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 53,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 239,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 11,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 43,
              "era_value": 3.9688,
              "era_rank": 32.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 9,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 149.2,
              "ip_rank": 37,
              "h_value": 129.0,
              "h_rank": 56,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 44,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 84,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 62,
              "k_value": 179.0,
              "k_rank": 11,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.76392,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1559,
              "whip_rank": 22.0,
              "war_value": 2.4,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9588,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9588,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9812,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0566,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_LAA@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_MIL@CIN

away

Kyle Harrison

True

5.0

3.2

-4

3/9

3/4

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4485981308411215,
      "WHIP": 1.1962616822429906,
      "IP": 107.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.864,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3466,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9705,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0589,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9866,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 92,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 107.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.449,
      "season_WHIP": 1.196,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690986",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.8,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0143,
            "WHIP": 1.6286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55714,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.38571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 825.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 82.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3732,
            "WHIP": 1.2465,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48592,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01408,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23239,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11972,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25352
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 107.0,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 99.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 130.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 447.0,
            "Pitches": 1883.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8636,
            "R": 2.0909,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.3182,
            "SO": 5.9091,
            "HR": 0.8636,
            "BF": 20.3182,
            "Pitches": 85.5909
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4486,
            "WHIP": 1.1963,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38318,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92523,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27103,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21495,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17757
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.379,
        "predicted_H": 5.144,
        "predicted_BB": 1.534,
        "predicted_SO": 5.485,
        "predicted_HR": 1.29,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.477,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3962
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.379,
          "final": 2.2167,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.144,
          "final": 4.2258,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.534,
          "final": 2.1618,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.485,
          "final": 5.2773,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.29,
          "final": 1.1658,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.477,
          "final": 4.477,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3962,
          "final": 1.3962,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 23,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 11,
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        "ERA": 4.373239436619718,
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        "K9": 10.077464788732394,
        "HR9": 2.2816901408450705,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9988988841883769,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690986",
      "player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.6154,
        "runs_scored": 718.0,
        "runs_allowed": 546.0,
        "run_differential": 172.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2028,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.021,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
        "offense_index": 1.1177,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 142,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4789,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": -109.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7676,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1761,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9437,
        "offense_index": 0.9296,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.6,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0769
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3573,
        "offense_edge": 0.1177,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0704,
        "defense_strength": 0.1765,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0224,
        "run_prevention": 0.9532,
        "strikeout": 1.0164
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690986",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690986",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 379.0,
            "k_percent": 29.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.291,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.7526,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.791,
            "whiff_percent": 28.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.152,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7514,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4571,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0049
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690986",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.96447377881593,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.373890759081,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.96447377881593,
                "release_spin_rate": 2200.373890759081,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9645,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.3739,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0049,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0352,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3466,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9705,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "690986",
            "espn_id": 4683375,
            "player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 92,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 92,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 355,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 84,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 3.4485,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 28,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 175,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 107.0,
              "ip_rank": 109,
              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": 113,
              "er_value": 41.0,
              "er_rank": 143,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 44,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 167,
              "k_value": 130.0,
              "k_rank": 52,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.934579,
              "k_per_9_rank": 12.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1962,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.79,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9705,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9705,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9866,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0589,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_MIL@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_MIL@CIN

home

Brady Singer

True

5.0

6/4

2/6

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.828235294117647,
      "WHIP": 1.447058823529412,
      "IP": 141.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.247,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4412,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0375,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 1.089,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.1,
      "woba": 0.354,
      "xwoba": 0.342,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.6,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 160,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663903",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 130.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 7.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4643,
            "WHIP": 1.5357,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60714,
            "H_per_IP": 1.32143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17857
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 259.0,
            "Pitches": 964.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.9,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5506,
            "WHIP": 1.3146,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50562,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0618,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25281,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77528,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 141.2,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 81.0,
            "H": 160.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8282,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.53647,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12941,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18353
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4253
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 3.101,
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        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 6.548,
          "final": 6.32,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.857,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9331,
          "final": 4.9331,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4253,
          "final": 1.4253,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 15,
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        "K9": 6.97752808988764,
        "HR9": 0.9101123595505618,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0205508465241897,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5,
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          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663903",
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      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 142,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4789,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": -109.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7676,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1761,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9437,
        "offense_index": 0.9296,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.6,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0769
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.6154,
        "runs_scored": 718.0,
        "runs_allowed": 546.0,
        "run_differential": 172.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2028,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.021,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
        "offense_index": 1.1177,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": 5.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2804
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3573,
        "offense_edge": -0.0704,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1177,
        "defense_strength": -0.0913,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1765,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9783,
        "run_prevention": 1.0458,
        "strikeout": 0.9799
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663903",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663903",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 545.0,
            "k_percent": 18.5,
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            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.342,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 81.1946,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7612,
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            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1439
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663903",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.30662066127576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.9859605092684,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.30662066127576,
                "release_spin_rate": 2382.9859605092684,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3066,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.986,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1439,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0279,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4412,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0375,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Brady Singer",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 160,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 27.0,
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              "qs_value": 10.0,
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              "era_value": 4.8282,
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              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 140,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 4,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 141.2,
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              "h_value": 160.0,
              "h_rank": 7,
              "er_value": 76.0,
              "er_rank": 12,
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              "hr_rank": 10,
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              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 71,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.432941,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37.0,
              "whip_value": 1.447,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.15,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0375,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_MIL@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_MIN@CHW

away

Bailey Ober

True

5.1

4.1

-3

-4

4/4

3/3

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.36764705882353,
      "WHIP": 1.2352941176470589,
      "IP": 113.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.397,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3311,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0281,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 1.0588,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 19.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 105,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1013,
            "WHIP": 1.2532,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4557,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98734,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26582,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 862.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.4026,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12987,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7013,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17532
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 113.1,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 79.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 477.0,
            "Pitches": 1797.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.619,
            "R": 2.8095,
            "H": 5.1905,
            "BB": 1.4762,
            "SO": 3.7619,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 22.7143,
            "Pitches": 85.5714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3676,
            "WHIP": 1.2353,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48529,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27353,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69706,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15882
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.588,
        "predicted_H": 5.346,
        "predicted_BB": 1.516,
        "predicted_SO": 3.732,
        "predicted_HR": 0.831,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4451,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3097
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.588,
          "final": 3.1969,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.346,
          "final": 4.7655,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.516,
          "final": 2.156,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.732,
          "final": 3.4163,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.831,
          "final": 1.3351,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4451,
          "final": 4.4451,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3097,
          "final": 1.3097,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.909090909090909,
        "WHIP": 1.4025974025974026,
        "K9": 6.311688311688313,
        "HR9": 1.5779220779220782,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0630851380753352,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4789,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 704.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2746,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6831,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9577,
        "offense_index": 1.0421,
        "defense_index": 0.9064,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0865
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5211,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 630.0,
        "run_differential": 40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2817,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7183,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4366,
        "offense_index": 1.05,
        "defense_index": 1.0129,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0524
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1389,
        "offense_edge": 0.0421,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.05,
        "defense_strength": -0.0936,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0129,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9896,
        "run_prevention": 1.0243,
        "strikeout": 0.9918
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641927",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641927",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 434.0,
            "k_percent": 16.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3318,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8564,
            "whiff_percent": 19.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.261,
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            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7714,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641927",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.58329722592109,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.382968074179,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 86,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.5833,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3311,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0281,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 1.0588,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641927",
            "espn_id": 3107919,
            "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 105,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 105,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 369,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 91,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 4.3676,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 82,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 175,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 113.1,
              "ip_rank": 100,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 95,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 76,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 51,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 149,
              "k_value": 79.0,
              "k_rank": 152,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.2735295,
              "k_per_9_rank": 41.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2352,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.64,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0588,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9383,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_MIN@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_MIN@CHW

home

Bryan Hudson

True

5.0

1.2

-10

3/1

1/0

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.5786516853932584,
      "WHIP": 1.1629213483146066,
      "IP": 59.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 60,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.143,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.2,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4758,
      "sample_weight": 0.872,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9596,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.994,
      "walk_factor": 0.9599,
      "homer_factor": 0.9043,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 3.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 103,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 59.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.579,
      "season_WHIP": 1.163,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.935,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7048,
        "prior_weight": 0.2952
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663542",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 60,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 67.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.2,
            "Pitches": 13.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.7059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 40.0,
            "Pitches": 135.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.9,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 13.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6875,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 60,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 927.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2833,
            "R": 0.3167,
            "H": 0.8667,
            "BB": 0.2833,
            "SO": 0.9167,
            "HR": 0.0667,
            "BF": 4.0833,
            "Pitches": 15.45
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5787,
            "WHIP": 1.1629,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28652,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28652,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92697,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06742
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.578,
        "predicted_H": 2.028,
        "predicted_BB": 0.372,
        "predicted_SO": 1.941,
        "predicted_HR": 0.245,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.1017,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9691
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4747,
      "form_weight": 0.5253,
      "form_reliability": 0.7048,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7048,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.578,
          "final": 0.3036,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.028,
          "final": 2.4894,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.372,
          "final": 0.6701,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.941,
          "final": 3.3932,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.245,
          "final": 0.1287,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.1017,
          "final": 2.1017,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9691,
          "final": 0.9691,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.2,
        "ER": 2,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 8,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.8620689655172415,
        "WHIP": 0.7241379310344828,
        "K9": 7.448275862068966,
        "HR9": 1.8620689655172415,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9061973605331601,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 11.935,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 3,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663542",
      "player_name": "Bryan Hudson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5211,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 630.0,
        "run_differential": 40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2817,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7183,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4366,
        "offense_index": 1.05,
        "defense_index": 1.0129,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0524
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4789,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 704.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2746,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6831,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9577,
        "offense_index": 1.0421,
        "defense_index": 0.9064,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0865
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1389,
        "offense_edge": 0.05,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0421,
        "defense_strength": 0.0129,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0936,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0043,
        "run_prevention": 0.9985,
        "strikeout": 1.0008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663542",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663542",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 218.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.267,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7955,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1987,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8455,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0579,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "663542",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4758,
          "sample_weight": 0.872,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9596,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.994,
          "walk_factor": 0.9599,
          "homer_factor": 0.9043,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663542",
            "espn_id": 4991171,
            "player_name": "Bryan Hudson",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 103,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 103,
              "gp_value": 61.0,
              "gp_rank": 30,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 198,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.0337,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 182,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 175,
              "sv_value": 7.0,
              "sv_rank": 35,
              "hld_value": 9.0,
              "hld_rank": 98,
              "ip_value": 59.1,
              "ip_rank": 229,
              "h_value": 55.0,
              "h_rank": 203,
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": 317,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 365,
              "bb_value": 17.0,
              "bb_rank": 339,
              "k_value": 55.0,
              "k_rank": 251,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.342696,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2134,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.68,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9648,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9648,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.965,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9165,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9948,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_MIN@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_NYY@SD

away

Gerrit Cole

True

6.1

7.0

4/6

1/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2884615384615383,
      "WHIP": 1.1057692307692308,
      "IP": 104.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2263,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9808,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0046,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 1.0158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.286,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 48,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 431.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.967,
            "WHIP": 1.1209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32967,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95604,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16484,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05495,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06593
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.788,
            "WHIP": 1.0435,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30978,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84783,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19565,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08152
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 104.0,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 93.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 426.0,
            "Pitches": 1595.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1111,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 5.1667,
            "BB": 1.2222,
            "SO": 6.1111,
            "HR": 0.7222,
            "BF": 23.6667,
            "Pitches": 88.6111
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2885,
            "WHIP": 1.1058,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36538,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89423,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21154,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.179,
        "predicted_H": 5.472,
        "predicted_BB": 1.341,
        "predicted_SO": 6.241,
        "predicted_HR": 0.576,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2968,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1455
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.179,
          "final": 2.5418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.472,
          "final": 4.8216,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.341,
          "final": 1.1903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.241,
          "final": 4.3671,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.576,
          "final": 0.3215,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2968,
          "final": 3.2968,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1455,
          "final": 1.1455,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 69,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.7880434782608696,
        "WHIP": 1.0434782608695652,
        "K9": 10.125,
        "HR9": 0.733695652173913,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8154893235637597,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.0167,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
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              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "direction": "deboost",
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          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
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        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
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        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5704,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.831,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5282,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
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          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
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        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5211,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0493,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
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          "run_differential": -8.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2428,
        "offense_edge": 0.0099,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543037",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543037",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.7143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1235
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543037",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.0825980662545,
              "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792056180953,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792056180953,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.0826,
              "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792,
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              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1235,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8825,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2263,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9808,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "543037",
            "espn_id": 32081,
            "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 48,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 48,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 407,
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              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 43,
              "era_value": 3.2884,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 62,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 82,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
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              "ip_rank": 113,
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              "h_rank": 120,
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              "er_rank": 154,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 114,
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              "bb_rank": 252,
              "k_value": 110.0,
              "k_rank": 81,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.519231,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1057,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.55,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9808,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9808,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0158,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0046,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_NYY@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_NYY@SD

home

Michael King

True

6.0

-2

5/4

2/3

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.996,
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      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.4,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 14,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "effective_weights": {
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      },
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7053,
            "WHIP": 1.0421,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18947,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75789,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85263,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12632
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
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            "Pitches": 965.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.6,
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            "Pitches": 96.5
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.26816,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.36872,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.13408
          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 63.0,
            "SO": 141.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 662.0,
            "Pitches": 2604.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0714,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 5.0357,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.34568,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.38889,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87037,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.736,
        "predicted_H": 4.901,
        "predicted_BB": 2.066,
        "predicted_SO": 5.338,
        "predicted_HR": 0.783,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5742,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1477
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.736,
          "final": 1.8453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.901,
          "final": 4.942,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.066,
          "final": 2.0387,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.338,
          "final": 4.37,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.783,
          "final": 0.8728,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5742,
          "final": 2.5742,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1477,
          "final": 1.1477,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 2.41340782122905,
        "WHIP": 1.1731843575418994,
        "K9": 7.994413407821228,
        "HR9": 1.206703910614525,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7765854645644884,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5211,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 591.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0493,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2113,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.162,
        "offense_index": 0.9392,
        "defense_index": 1.0773,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.046
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5704,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 525.0,
        "run_differential": 118.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.831,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5282,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6972,
        "offense_index": 1.0099,
        "defense_index": 1.2128,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1968
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2428,
        "offense_edge": -0.0608,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0099,
        "defense_strength": 0.0773,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2128,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9922,
        "run_prevention": 1.006,
        "strikeout": 0.9919
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 605.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6483,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1065,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0561,
            "command_and_miss": -0.06,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0606
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.7946063306037,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.5983919845057,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.7946063306037,
                "release_spin_rate": 2284.5983919845057,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7946,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.5984,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0606,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4327,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.069,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0059,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.996,
          "walk_factor": 1.006,
          "homer_factor": 1.002,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "650633",
            "espn_id": 40429,
            "player_name": "Michael King",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 14,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 14,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 239,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 11,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 16,
              "era_value": 3.1111,
              "era_rank": 15.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 26,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 162.0,
              "ip_rank": 15,
              "h_value": 126.0,
              "h_rank": 64,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 71,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 51,
              "bb_value": 63.0,
              "bb_rank": 13,
              "k_value": 141.0,
              "k_rank": 38,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.8333335,
              "k_per_9_rank": 68.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1666,
              "whip_rank": 26.0,
              "war_value": 3.73,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_NYY@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_OAK@SEA

away

Gage Jump

True

4.2

4.0

-2

5/6

2/0

2/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.147482014388489,
      "WHIP": 1.489208633093525,
      "IP": 92.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.148,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.169,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0144,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0143,
      "walk_factor": 1.038,
      "homer_factor": 1.0181,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 196,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695611",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.08991637091822,
              "release_spin_rate": 2304.151617914787,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.08991637091822,
                "release_spin_rate": 2304.151617914787,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0899,
              "release_spin_rate": 2304.1516,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.068,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4854,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.169,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0144,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0143,
          "walk_factor": 1.038,
          "homer_factor": 1.0181,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695611",
            "espn_id": 5023852,
            "player_name": "Gage Jump",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 196,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 196,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 407,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 109,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 5.1474,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 102,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 26,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 92.2,
              "ip_rank": 134,
              "h_value": 93.0,
              "h_rank": 120,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 88,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 156,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 56,
              "k_value": 99.0,
              "k_rank": 100,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.6151085,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4892,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.89,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0144,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0144,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.038,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0181,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0143,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_OAK@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_OAK@SEA

home

Bryan Woo

True

5.2

8.0

-3

4/1

0/2

7/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.247191011235955,
      "WHIP": 1.092134831460674,
      "IP": 148.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.705,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1587,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9865,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0114,
      "walk_factor": 0.918,
      "homer_factor": 1.0292,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 152,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 433.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8929,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17857
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 910.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2289,
            "WHIP": 1.1747,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46988,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93976,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23494,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03012,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16265
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 148.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 131.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 149.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 606.0,
            "Pitches": 2293.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6923,
            "R": 2.8846,
            "H": 5.0385,
            "BB": 1.1923,
            "SO": 5.7308,
            "HR": 0.6923,
            "BF": 23.3077,
            "Pitches": 88.1923
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2472,
            "WHIP": 1.0921,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47191,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88315,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20899,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00449,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12135
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.372,
        "predicted_H": 4.741,
        "predicted_BB": 1.311,
        "predicted_SO": 5.589,
        "predicted_HR": 0.901,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7679,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.068
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.372,
          "final": 3.0527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.741,
          "final": 4.4312,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.311,
          "final": 0.7628,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.589,
          "final": 6.179,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.901,
          "final": 1.3605,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7679,
          "final": 3.7679,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.068,
          "final": 1.068,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.228915662650603,
        "WHIP": 1.1746987951807228,
        "K9": 9.271084337349397,
        "HR9": 1.463855421686747,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9808679576653837,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "player_name": "Bryan Woo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4615,
        "runs_scored": 567.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5105,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.965,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4755,
        "offense_index": 0.8843,
        "defense_index": 1.0018,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2003
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3986,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 817.0,
        "run_differential": -186.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3007,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4126,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7133,
        "offense_index": 0.9841,
        "defense_index": 0.7848,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2457
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0454,
        "offense_edge": -0.1157,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0159,
        "defense_strength": 0.0018,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2152,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0025,
        "run_prevention": 0.995,
        "strikeout": 1.0026
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693433",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693433",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 561.0,
            "k_percent": 24.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2011,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4719,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 53.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1374,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3421,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0857,
            "bb_edge": 1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1601
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693433",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.73481894159748,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.1822599774046,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.73481894159748,
                "release_spin_rate": 2270.1822599774046,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.7348,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.1823,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1601,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1434,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1587,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9865,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0114,
          "walk_factor": 0.918,
          "homer_factor": 1.0292,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693433",
            "espn_id": 4629089,
            "player_name": "Bryan Woo",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 152,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 152,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 293,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 21,
              "era_value": 4.2471,
              "era_rank": 42.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 28,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 26,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 148.1,
              "ip_rank": 40,
              "h_value": 131.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 24,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 51,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 149,
              "k_value": 149.0,
              "k_rank": 29,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.040449,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0921,
              "whip_rank": 12.0,
              "war_value": 1.19,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9865,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9865,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.918,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0292,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0114,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_OAK@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_SF@NYM

away

Cesar Perdomo

True

4.0

6.0

-6

5/3

1/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.25,
      "WHIP": 1.0,
      "IP": 4.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0319,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9973,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0036,
      "walk_factor": 0.9982,
      "homer_factor": 0.9974,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.65,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 413,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702885",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 58.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 58.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 58.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 58.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 58.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 58.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.825,
        "predicted_H": 3.736,
        "predicted_BB": 1.405,
        "predicted_SO": 3.797,
        "predicted_HR": 0.654,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1067,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2853
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7021,
      "form_weight": 0.2979,
      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.825,
          "final": 4.0541,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.736,
          "final": 4.6234,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.405,
          "final": 1.1207,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.797,
          "final": 3.9395,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.654,
          "final": 1.599,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1067,
          "final": 4.1067,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2853,
          "final": 1.2853,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 4.0,
        "ER": 1,
        "H": 3,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 4,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.25,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 2.25,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9677974509967533,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702885",
      "player_name": "Cesar Perdomo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4126,
        "runs_scored": 601.0,
        "runs_allowed": 674.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5105,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2028,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7133,
        "offense_index": 0.9381,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
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          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.137
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4507,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3521,
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          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1201
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0169,
        "offense_edge": -0.0619,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0695,
        "defense_strength": -0.0495,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0091,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0006,
        "run_prevention": 0.9947,
        "strikeout": 1.0051
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702885",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702885",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 22.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.65,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.537,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8942,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0795,
            "command_and_miss": 0.09,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0357,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "702885",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0319,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9973,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0036,
          "walk_factor": 0.9982,
          "homer_factor": 0.9974,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "702885",
            "espn_id": 5271881,
            "player_name": "Cesar Perdomo",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 413,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 413,
              "gp_value": 1.0,
              "gp_rank": 781,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 359,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 2.25,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 527,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 570,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 4.0,
              "ip_rank": 728,
              "h_value": 3.0,
              "h_rank": 768,
              "er_value": 1.0,
              "er_rank": 774,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 608,
              "bb_value": 1.0,
              "bb_rank": 753,
              "k_value": 4.0,
              "k_rank": 694,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.08,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9992,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0016,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 69,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 6 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_SF@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_SF@NYM

home

Christian Scott

True

5.0

4.2

-1

3/4

3/0

3/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8028169014084505,
      "WHIP": 1.3098591549295775,
      "IP": 94.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.132,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9888,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0383,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 0.975,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
      "whiff_percent": 26.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 99,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681035",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0395,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67105,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55263,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 896.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.349,
            "WHIP": 1.2886,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48322,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8255,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46309,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20805,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10067
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 94.2,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 41.0,
            "H": 80.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 113.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 412.0,
            "Pitches": 1723.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.05,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.65,
            "HR": 0.5,
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            "Pitches": 86.15
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8028,
            "WHIP": 1.3099,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42254,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19366,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10563
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.691,
        "predicted_H": 4.46,
        "predicted_BB": 2.361,
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        "predicted_HR": 0.578,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.896,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3789
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.691,
          "final": 2.8253,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.46,
          "final": 3.8256,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.361,
          "final": 2.6386,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.515,
          "final": 4.4222,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.578,
          "final": 0.7614,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.896,
          "final": 4.896,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3789,
          "final": 1.3789,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 5,
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        "K9": 10.872483221476509,
        "HR9": 0.9060402684563758,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9972239858047869,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681035",
      "player_name": "Christian Scott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4507,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3521,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.169,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5211,
        "offense_index": 0.9305,
        "defense_index": 0.9909,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1201
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4126,
        "runs_scored": 601.0,
        "runs_allowed": 674.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5105,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2028,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7133,
        "offense_index": 0.9381,
        "defense_index": 0.9505,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.137
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0169,
        "offense_edge": -0.0695,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0619,
        "defense_strength": -0.0091,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0495,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0029,
        "run_prevention": 0.9902,
        "strikeout": 1.0055
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681035",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681035",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 367.0,
            "k_percent": 27.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2277,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1628,
            "whiff_percent": 26.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.093,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3371,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1857,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.011
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681035",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.07194600258177,
              "release_spin_rate": 2347.3186219792724,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.07194600258177,
                "release_spin_rate": 2347.3186219792724,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0719,
              "release_spin_rate": 2347.3186,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.011,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0782,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.132,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9888,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0383,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 0.975,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "681035",
            "espn_id": 4414215,
            "player_name": "Christian Scott",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 99,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 99,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 384,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 95,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 156,
              "era_value": 3.8028,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 182,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 175,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 94.2,
              "ip_rank": 130,
              "h_value": 80.0,
              "h_rank": 143,
              "er_value": 40.0,
              "er_rank": 144,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 156,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 62,
              "k_value": 113.0,
              "k_rank": 78,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.742958,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3098,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.73,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9888,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9888,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.975,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0383,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_SF@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_STL@COL

away

Kyle Leahy

True

5.1

2.2

-8

2/6

0/0

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.131443298969072,
      "WHIP": 1.3067010309278349,
      "IP": 129.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.974,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3976,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0338,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.1251,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.321,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 38,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 129.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.131,
      "season_WHIP": 1.307,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681517",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 89.0,
            "Pitches": 367.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 17.8,
            "Pitches": 73.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6364,
            "WHIP": 1.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18182,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13636,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04545
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 187.0,
            "Pitches": 783.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.7,
            "Pitches": 78.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 1.0208,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14583,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 129.1,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 131.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 545.0,
            "Pitches": 2137.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7308,
            "R": 1.7308,
            "H": 5.0385,
            "BB": 1.4615,
            "SO": 4.5385,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.9615,
            "Pitches": 82.1923
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1314,
            "WHIP": 1.3067,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34794,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29381,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91237,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10052
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.219,
        "predicted_H": 4.653,
        "predicted_BB": 0.968,
        "predicted_SO": 5.137,
        "predicted_HR": 0.39,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.3055,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1814
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.219,
          "final": 1.9637,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.653,
          "final": 3.5437,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.968,
          "final": 0.5632,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.137,
          "final": 5.4979,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.39,
          "final": 0.2269,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3055,
          "final": 2.3055,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1814,
          "final": 1.1814,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 1.5,
        "WHIP": 1.0208333333333333,
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.6927789452831421,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "position": "Starter",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        {
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          "summary": {
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          },
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 658.0,
        "run_differential": -11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0769,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5245,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6014,
        "offense_index": 1.0098,
        "defense_index": 0.9738,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0124
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.3873,
        "runs_scored": 671.0,
        "runs_allowed": 809.0,
        "run_differential": -138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9718,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7254,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6972,
        "offense_index": 1.0546,
        "defense_index": 0.7865,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2501
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2377,
        "offense_edge": 0.0098,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0546,
        "defense_strength": -0.0262,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2135,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0065,
        "run_prevention": 0.9995,
        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681517",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681517",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 514.0,
            "k_percent": 21.7,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.321,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.1251,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.4128,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6219,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0293,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.021
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681517",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.50135049643278,
              "release_spin_rate": 2181.5467068991857,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.50135049643278,
                "release_spin_rate": 2181.5467068991857,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5014,
              "release_spin_rate": 2181.5467,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.021,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.15,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3976,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0338,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "681517",
            "espn_id": 5006093,
            "player_name": "Kyle Leahy",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 38,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 38,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 293,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 3.1314,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 28,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 175,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 129.1,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 131.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 123,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 114,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 94,
              "k_value": 118.0,
              "k_rank": 70,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.211341,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3067,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.82,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0338,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0338,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.1251,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9846,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 73,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_STL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_STL@COL

home

Tanner Gordon

True

5.0

4.2

-1

4/8

3/1

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.176691729323308,
      "WHIP": 1.3984962406015038,
      "IP": 88.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.042,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2399,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0204,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
      "walk_factor": 0.9,
      "homer_factor": 1.0834,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 4.2,
      "woba": 0.368,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 192,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 68.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2838,
            "WHIP": 1.1351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01351,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12162,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64865,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 677.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 67.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9103,
            "WHIP": 1.2414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43448,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07586,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16552,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68276,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 88.2,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 383.0,
            "Pitches": 1343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.55,
            "R": 2.65,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.85,
            "BF": 19.15,
            "Pitches": 67.15
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1767,
            "WHIP": 1.3985,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57519,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21805,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18045,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81203,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19173
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.163,
        "predicted_H": 5.135,
        "predicted_BB": 0.941,
        "predicted_SO": 3.613,
        "predicted_HR": 0.715,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0009,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2485
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.163,
          "final": 2.0922,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.135,
          "final": 4.6418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.941,
          "final": 1.8356,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.613,
          "final": 4.2157,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.715,
          "final": 0.4043,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0009,
          "final": 4.0009,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2485,
          "final": 1.2485,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.9103448275862074,
        "WHIP": 1.2413793103448276,
        "K9": 6.1448275862068975,
        "HR9": 1.8620689655172415,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9466957515997418,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.3873,
        "runs_scored": 671.0,
        "runs_allowed": 809.0,
        "run_differential": -138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9718,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7254,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6972,
        "offense_index": 1.0546,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2501
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 143,
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        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 658.0,
        "run_differential": -11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0769,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5245,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "685299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "685299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 56,
            "primary_pitch": {
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                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.68522008751086,
                "release_spin_rate": 2169.693328889431,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6852,
              "release_spin_rate": 2169.6933,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0667,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4765,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2399,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0204,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
          "walk_factor": 0.9,
          "homer_factor": 1.0834,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.045,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "685299",
            "espn_id": 4415658,
            "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 192,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 192,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 384,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 184,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 5.1766,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 405,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 175,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 88.2,
              "ip_rank": 139,
              "h_value": 108.0,
              "h_rank": 99,
              "er_value": 51.0,
              "er_rank": 99,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 64,
              "bb_value": 16.0,
              "bb_rank": 356,
              "k_value": 72.0,
              "k_rank": 167,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.308271,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3984,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.91,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0204,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0204,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0834,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9646,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_STL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_TB@TEX

away

Ian Seymour

True

5.1

3.0

-7

0/5

2/1

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.811764705882353,
      "WHIP": 1.0941176470588236,
      "IP": 113.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 41,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3879,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.967,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0669,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.0075,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.288,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 239,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.798,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8201,
        "prior_weight": 0.1799
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 41,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0345,
            "WHIP": 1.1724,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44828,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13793,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34483,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24138
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 844.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 84.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3269,
            "WHIP": 1.2115,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48077,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21154,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21154
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 41,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 113.1,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 92.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 138.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 465.0,
            "Pitches": 1801.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.1707,
            "R": 1.2683,
            "H": 2.2439,
            "BB": 0.7805,
            "SO": 3.3659,
            "HR": 0.4878,
            "BF": 11.3415,
            "Pitches": 43.9268
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8118,
            "WHIP": 1.0941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28235,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21765,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.321,
        "predicted_H": 4.902,
        "predicted_BB": 1.128,
        "predicted_SO": 6.17,
        "predicted_HR": 1.029,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1617,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2014
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.426,
      "form_weight": 0.574,
      "form_reliability": 0.8201,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.798,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8201,
        "prior_weight": 0.1799
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.321,
          "final": 3.0363,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 4.902,
          "final": 2.8137,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.128,
          "final": 1.4995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 6.17,
          "final": 3.9675,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.029,
          "final": 0.5906,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1617,
          "final": 4.1617,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2014,
          "final": 1.2014,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.326923076923077,
        "WHIP": 1.2115384615384615,
        "K9": 11.423076923076922,
        "HR9": 1.9038461538461535,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9928147834299804,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.798,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8201,
          "prior_weight": 0.1799
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 0,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "player_name": "Ian Seymour",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5986,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": 49.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3451,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5141,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.169,
        "offense_index": 1.0079,
        "defense_index": 1.0743,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1962
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4895,
        "runs_scored": 587.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3217,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1049,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4266,
        "offense_index": 0.9165,
        "defense_index": 1.0118,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0834
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2796,
        "offense_edge": 0.0079,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0835,
        "defense_strength": 0.0743,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0118,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0168,
        "run_prevention": 0.9652,
        "strikeout": 1.0151
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693855",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693855",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 390.0,
            "k_percent": 29.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.288,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7907,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6181,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2455,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8107,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2186
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693855",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.97248769813585,
              "release_spin_rate": 1969.909917192974,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.97248769813585,
                "release_spin_rate": 1969.909917192974,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9725,
              "release_spin_rate": 1969.9099,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2186,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5615,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3879,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.967,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0669,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0075,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693855",
            "espn_id": 4669425,
            "player_name": "Ian Seymour",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 239,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 239,
              "gp_value": 42.0,
              "gp_rank": 149,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 156,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 109,
              "era_value": 4.2088,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 88,
              "hld_value": 10.0,
              "hld_rank": 81,
              "ip_value": 113.1,
              "ip_rank": 100,
              "h_value": 97.0,
              "h_rank": 116,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 88,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 32,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 139,
              "k_value": 138.0,
              "k_rank": 40,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.958824,
              "k_per_9_rank": 10.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1382,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.59,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.967,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.967,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0669,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 75,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_TB@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_TB@TEX

home

MacKenzie Gore

True

5.1

3.0

-7

2/7

2/3

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.306034482758621,
      "WHIP": 1.293103448275862,
      "IP": 154.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1235,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9895,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 1.0345,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.312,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 26.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 107,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 480.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1154,
            "WHIP": 1.5385,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.2671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89441,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37267,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08075,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.2,
            "ER": 74.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 169.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 664.0,
            "Pitches": 2647.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5517,
            "R": 2.5517,
            "H": 4.8276,
            "BB": 2.069,
            "SO": 5.8276,
            "HR": 0.6207,
            "BF": 22.8966,
            "Pitches": 91.2759
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.306,
            "WHIP": 1.2931,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47845,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90517,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38793,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09267,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11638
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.157,
        "predicted_H": 5.135,
        "predicted_BB": 2.261,
        "predicted_SO": 5.735,
        "predicted_HR": 0.586,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6402,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3868
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.157,
          "final": 2.0923,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.135,
          "final": 3.8429,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.261,
          "final": 2.1534,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.735,
          "final": 5.8442,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.586,
          "final": 0.7566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6402,
          "final": 3.6402,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3868,
          "final": 1.3868,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.5217391304347827,
        "WHIP": 1.2670807453416149,
        "K9": 9.726708074534162,
        "HR9": 1.173913043478261,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9036201465451263,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4895,
        "runs_scored": 587.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3217,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1049,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4266,
        "offense_index": 0.9165,
        "defense_index": 1.0118,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0834
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5986,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": 49.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3451,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5141,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.169,
        "offense_index": 1.0079,
        "defense_index": 1.0743,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1962
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2796,
        "offense_edge": -0.0835,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0079,
        "defense_strength": 0.0118,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0743,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9889,
        "run_prevention": 1.0141,
        "strikeout": 0.991
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 595.0,
            "k_percent": 25.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.312,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5178,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5292,
            "whiff_percent": 26.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0272,
            "command_and_miss": 0.31,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0241
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 100,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 100,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.30705137786757,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.388338902536,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 100,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30705137786757,
                "release_spin_rate": 2168.388338902536,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3071,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.3883,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0241,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1723,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1235,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9895,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
          "walk_factor": 0.996,
          "homer_factor": 1.0345,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669022",
            "espn_id": 39636,
            "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 107,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 107,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 220,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 3,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 63,
              "era_value": 4.306,
              "era_rank": 44.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 62,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 16,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 154.2,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 140.0,
              "h_rank": 31,
              "er_value": 74.0,
              "er_rank": 18,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 51,
              "bb_value": 60.0,
              "bb_rank": 14,
              "k_value": 169.0,
              "k_rank": 18,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.834052,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2931,
              "whip_rank": 38.0,
              "war_value": 1.61,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9895,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9895,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0345,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0286,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_TB@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_TOR@KC

away

Spencer Arrighetti

True

5.0

4.2

-1

4/6

2/3

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.818181818181818,
      "WHIP": 1.3434343434343434,
      "IP": 99.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.352,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0299,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
      "walk_factor": 1.068,
      "homer_factor": 1.0078,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 12.6,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.346,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 289,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681293",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 79.0,
            "Pitches": 320.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 15.8,
            "Pitches": 64.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3529,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64706,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94118,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.0,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 192.0,
            "Pitches": 771.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.9,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 77.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.3571,
            "WHIP": 1.5476,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97619,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04762,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28571
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 99.0,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 78.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 97.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 435.0,
            "Pitches": 1706.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.65,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 4.85,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 85.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8182,
            "WHIP": 1.3434,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53535,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78788,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9798,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15152
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.9,
        "predicted_H": 3.603,
        "predicted_BB": 2.306,
        "predicted_SO": 4.05,
        "predicted_HR": 0.817,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.2936,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.425
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.9,
          "final": 3.378,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.603,
          "final": 3.7755,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.306,
          "final": 2.173,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.05,
          "final": 4.0283,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.817,
          "final": 0.8965,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.2936,
          "final": 6.2936,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.425,
          "final": 1.425,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.0,
        "ER": 39,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 8.357142857142858,
        "WHIP": 1.5476190476190477,
        "K9": 9.428571428571429,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5035,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 612.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.049,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2797,
        "offense_index": 0.904,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 24.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 143,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4406,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 704.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6503,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2727,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9231,
        "offense_index": 0.954,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1653
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2449,
        "offense_edge": -0.096,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.046,
        "defense_strength": 0.0465,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0902,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.013,
        "run_prevention": 0.9757,
        "strikeout": 1.011
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681293",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681293",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 383.0,
            "k_percent": 22.3,
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            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.346,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 30.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3015,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.7918,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 42.3
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3961,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1507,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 1.0,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0,
            "bb_edge": -0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681293",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.44963252833853,
              "release_spin_rate": 2497.7609751645673,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 70,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.44963252833853,
                "release_spin_rate": 2497.7609751645673,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.4496,
              "release_spin_rate": 2497.761,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.352,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0299,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
          "walk_factor": 1.068,
          "homer_factor": 1.0078,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "681293",
            "espn_id": 4726080,
            "player_name": "Spencer Arrighetti",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 289,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 289,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 384,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 109,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 4.8181,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 82,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 52,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 99.0,
              "ip_rank": 119,
              "h_value": 78.0,
              "h_rank": 150,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 88,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 84,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 21,
              "k_value": 97.0,
              "k_rank": 103,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.818182,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3434,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0299,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0299,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.068,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0078,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_TOR@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_TOR@KC

home

Randy Dobnak

True

6.0

-3

6/4

2/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.653179190751445,
      "WHIP": 1.3872832369942196,
      "IP": 57.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2669,
      "sample_weight": 0.696,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0227,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9566,
      "walk_factor": 1.0014,
      "homer_factor": 0.995,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.312,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 89,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 57.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.653,
      "season_WHIP": 1.387,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 11,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 92.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3875,
            "WHIP": 1.6125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3602,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2795,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95031,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40994,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70807,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.2948,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98844,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39884,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69364,
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 3.7269,
          "final": 3.7269,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.4364,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "H": 51,
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        "SO": 38,
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        "K9": 6.3726708074534155,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7927505813277349,
    "stat_evolution": [
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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      "team": {
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        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4406,
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        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6503,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2727,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
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          "run_differential": -4.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 143,
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        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5035,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 612.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2308,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
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          "run_differential": 24.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.046,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0059,
        "strikeout": 1.0003
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677976",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677976",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.2372,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3286,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1416
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677976",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.34840198382811,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.34840198382811,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3484,
              "release_spin_rate": 2038.5773,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0112,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2669,
          "sample_weight": 0.696,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0227,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Randy Dobnak",
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            "espn_rank": 89,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 11.0,
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              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 310,
              "bb_value": 23.0,
              "bb_rank": 234,
              "k_value": 40.0,
              "k_rank": 346,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.2427745,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3872,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.82,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.001,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9965,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9698,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_TOR@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_WAS@LAD

away

Andrew Alvarez

True

5.0

4.1

-2

3/4

1/2

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.474264705882353,
      "WHIP": 1.3125,
      "IP": 90.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.923,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0775,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0066,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 0.9973,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 82,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 79.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3625,
            "WHIP": 0.975,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 771.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 77.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8311,
            "WHIP": 1.2568,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42568,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50676,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77027,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06081
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 90.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 78.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 86.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 382.0,
            "Pitches": 1489.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.6667,
            "H": 3.7143,
            "BB": 1.9524,
            "SO": 4.0952,
            "HR": 0.2381,
            "BF": 18.1905,
            "Pitches": 70.9048
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4743,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38603,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86029,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45221,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94853,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05515
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.874,
        "predicted_H": 3.789,
        "predicted_BB": 2.126,
        "predicted_SO": 4.337,
        "predicted_HR": 0.477,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3641,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1798
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.874,
          "final": 1.9283,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.789,
          "final": 3.4487,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.126,
          "final": 1.6404,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.337,
          "final": 4.6229,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.477,
          "final": 0.2713,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3641,
          "final": 3.3641,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1798,
          "final": 1.1798,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.8310810810810807,
        "WHIP": 1.2567567567567568,
        "K9": 6.9324324324324325,
        "HR9": 0.5472972972972973,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9381630162782133,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 144,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4653,
        "runs_scored": 743.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0764,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1597,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0833,
        "offense_index": 1.1475,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0202
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5986,
        "runs_scored": 698.0,
        "runs_allowed": 548.0,
        "run_differential": 150.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9155,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8592,
        "offense_index": 1.0931,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.213
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2332,
        "offense_edge": 0.1475,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0931,
        "defense_strength": -0.1154,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1652,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9835,
        "run_prevention": 1.0381,
        "strikeout": 0.9856
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674841",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674841",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 302.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6913,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5332,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 44.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0034,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0129,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1534
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674841",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.13661568408875,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.9833130374473,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.1366,
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              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1534,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0959,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0775,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0066,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 0.9973,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "674841",
            "espn_id": 4300668,
            "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 82,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 82,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 369,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 151,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 156,
              "era_value": 3.4742,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 308,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 136,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 226,
              "ip_value": 90.2,
              "ip_rank": 138,
              "h_value": 78.0,
              "h_rank": 150,
              "er_value": 35.0,
              "er_rank": 164,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 310,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 76,
              "k_value": 86.0,
              "k_rank": 137,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.536765,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3125,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.87,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0066,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0066,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9973,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_WAS@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260906

20260906_WAS@LAD

home

Justin Wrobleski

True

5.1

3.0

-7

2/8

4/1

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.6467532467532466,
      "WHIP": 1.1064935064935064,
      "IP": 128.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.117,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3582,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0304,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.96,
      "walk_factor": 0.926,
      "homer_factor": 1.0906,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 19.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 83,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680736",
      "report_date": "20260906",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 2.4,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.7231,
            "WHIP": 1.5692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.96923,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36923,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.55385
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 864.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 86.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5818,
            "WHIP": 1.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50909,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23636,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25455
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.1,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 526.0,
            "Pitches": 1936.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3636,
            "R": 2.4545,
            "H": 5.1364,
            "BB": 1.3182,
            "SO": 4.7273,
            "HR": 0.9091,
            "BF": 23.9091,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6468,
            "WHIP": 1.1065,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40519,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88052,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22597,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81039,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.384,
        "predicted_H": 5.306,
        "predicted_BB": 1.584,
        "predicted_SO": 5.23,
        "predicted_HR": 1.686,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.9287,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3413
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.384,
          "final": 2.3631,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.306,
          "final": 3.8902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.584,
          "final": 2.6186,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.23,
          "final": 5.988,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.686,
          "final": 0.964,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.9287,
          "final": 5.9287,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3413,
          "final": 1.3413,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 59,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 4.581818181818182,
        "WHIP": 1.1818181818181819,
        "K9": 9.654545454545454,
        "HR9": 2.290909090909091,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0207474757376729,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680736",
      "player_name": "Justin Wrobleski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5986,
        "runs_scored": 698.0,
        "runs_allowed": 548.0,
        "run_differential": 150.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9155,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8592,
        "offense_index": 1.0931,
        "defense_index": 1.1652,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.213
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4653,
        "runs_scored": 743.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0764,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1597,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0833,
        "offense_index": 1.1475,
        "defense_index": 0.8846,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0202
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2332,
        "offense_edge": 0.0931,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1475,
        "defense_strength": 0.1652,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1154,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0084,
        "run_prevention": 0.9954,
        "strikeout": 0.9952
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680736",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680736",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 515.0,
            "k_percent": 19.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3535,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6166,
            "whiff_percent": 20.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9167,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.374,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1964,
            "regression_edge": -1.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 0.925,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.029
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680736",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.39432421927599,
              "release_spin_rate": 2377.3706374138,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.39432421927599,
                "release_spin_rate": 2377.3706374138,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3943,
              "release_spin_rate": 2377.3706,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.029,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2072,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3582,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0304,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.96,
          "walk_factor": 0.926,
          "homer_factor": 1.0906,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680736",
            "espn_id": 4417203,
            "player_name": "Justin Wrobleski",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 83,
            "espn_total_ranked": 855,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 83,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 355,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 95,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 33,
              "era_value": 3.6467,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 21,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 132,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 128.1,
              "ip_rank": 78,
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": 87,
              "er_value": 52.0,
              "er_rank": 93,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 32,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 167,
              "k_value": 104.0,
              "k_rank": 88,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2935066,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1064,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.86,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0304,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0304,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.926,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0906,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260906_WAS@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}