Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260904 · dates 20260904 · generated 2026-09-05T06:00:19.077539+00:00

10-6

Winner picks · 62.5%

Comparable starters · 2 identity mismatches

14/28

Starter ER within ±1

24/28

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260904	16	16	0	10	6	16	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	16	applied games: 16formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	16	available games: 12
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	16	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	16	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	16	configured window: 10last 10 games: 16observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	16	settled games: 16metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1316.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	7	54.0%	57.1%	-3.2%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	6	56.3%	66.7%	-10.4%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	1	64.3%	0.0%	64.3%	overconfident
0.65-0.70	1	66.2%	100.0%	-33.8%	underconfident
0.70-0.80	1	72.5%	100.0%	-27.6%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	16	2.4463	4.2626	2.2201	62.5%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	16	2.4688	4.3125	2.1875	50.0%	0.0225	-0.0326
enhanced_prediction	16	2.3438	4.0625	2.0625	62.5%	-0.1025	-0.1576
embedded_savant_run_environment	16	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625	62.5%	-0.0401	-0.1576
fundamental_edge_target_review	16	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625	62.5%	-0.0401	-0.1576
capped_target	16	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625	62.5%	-0.0401	-0.1576
simulation_result	16	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625	62.5%	-0.0401	-0.1576
published_final	16	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625	62.5%	-0.0401	-0.1576

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 16,
  "team_run_mae": 2.4688,
  "total_run_mae": 4.3125,
  "margin_mae": 2.1875,
  "winner_hits": 8,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0225,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0326
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	-4.0	0.0	8.0	6	2	3	1	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	6	2	0	4	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.9461	-0.9239	0.0222	1.87	6	3	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -4.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 8.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.9461,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.9239,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0222,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.87,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=10

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	6.0	-4.0	2.0	10.0	10	5	2	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	2.8047	-1.8526	0.9521	4.6573	10	6	4	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	10	2	0	8	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -4.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 10.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.8047,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.8526,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.9521,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.6573,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=16

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	7	4	3	0.5714
[0.550, 0.600)	6	4	2	0.6667
[0.600, 1.010)	3	2	1	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 16,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 7,
    "hits": 4,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.5714
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5714
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=16

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260904	16	0.5739	9.625	0.625

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 16,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260904",
      "sample_size": 16,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5739,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.625,
      "accuracy": 0.625
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=16

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	16	10	6	0.625

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 16,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 16,
      "hits": 10,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.625
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260904_ARI@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreARI 4 - 6 HOU

Final confidence58.3%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=301

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.029

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.329852233044903-4.703996342768581	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.165006,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.582503,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.582503,
    "away_win_probability": 0.417497
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.165006,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 4 - 6 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.5825032,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5581,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6153,
    "published_confidence": 0.582503,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2837,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.444,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.029
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024339357162644664
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024299854506829532
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022936748072765623
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022899521844538553
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02288460639968792
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03130352797720104,
      "1": 0.054017017997398616,
      "2": 0.08258953268693411,
      "3": 0.11188619289450308,
      "4": 0.1343028004769298,
      "5": 0.1428402906154408,
      "6": 0.134608804110708,
      "7": 0.11239663029362279,
      "8": 0.08315535090370892,
      "9": 0.05451100567257442,
      "10": 0.031661776039178156,
      "11": 0.01629458991581074,
      "12": 0.007430339917118373,
      "13": 0.0030021404988714094
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06006630543281374,
      "1": 0.10100415017863941,
      "2": 0.14290471615277575,
      "3": 0.1701190497592194,
      "4": 0.17039560097348067,
      "5": 0.14360278177411795,
      "6": 0.10182780235708246,
      "7": 0.06075316849939622,
      "8": 0.03049794231977182,
      "9": 0.012881640904909045,
      "10": 0.004577948280318913,
      "11": 0.0013688933674747556
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 4 - 6 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 4 - 6 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.038,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.444,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
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      "winner_quality_edge": -0.029,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
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    "winner": "HOU",
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5573,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5825,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.444,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-05T00:10:00+00:00",
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    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260904_ATL@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreATL 4 - 3 PHI

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 63.9% → blended 60.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=295

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4464

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.05442542462138-3.937692634252369	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.119868,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.559934,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.440066,
    "away_win_probability": 0.559934
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.119868,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.559934265,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.638747,
    "sample_size": 295,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.600724,
    "published_confidence": 0.559934,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6286,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.108,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4464
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03168343348015209
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02973622806771055
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02909490111381691
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02890989274118782
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02801368389047813
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08017724460141717,
      "1": 0.13244062432161127,
      "2": 0.17762902924272772,
      "3": 0.19343243374982,
      "4": 0.17102802499697073,
      "5": 0.12278007541969124,
      "6": 0.07156672468220754,
      "7": 0.03387014208215237,
      "8": 0.013015040560804773,
      "9": 0.004060660342597352
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.050133126284396846,
      "1": 0.0850486658553936,
      "2": 0.12356005803823868,
      "3": 0.15372927637446024,
      "4": 0.1637958684898239,
      "5": 0.1494573178900238,
      "6": 0.1167882918301834,
      "7": 0.07815365788802499,
      "8": 0.04478856967654663,
      "9": 0.02198127898937394,
      "10": 0.009238609365816197,
      "11": 0.003325279317717913
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1197,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.318,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4464,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5599,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6124,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5599,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4464,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.108,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1197,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3"
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    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T22:35:57.091697+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-04T22:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.417046,
      "confidence": 0.582954,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.417046,
      "confidence": 0.582954,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.638747,
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        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.6,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5815,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.96262,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 1.0,
        "calibration_sample_size": 295,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5591,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.418454,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415639,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.96262,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.417046,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.582954
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 140,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 61,
          "win_pct": 0.5642857142857143,
          "runs_scored": 631,
          "runs_allowed": 595,
          "run_differential": 36,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.2571428571428571,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 140,
          "wins": 83,
          "losses": 57,
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          "runs_allowed": 535,
          "run_differential": 118,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8428571428571429,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5857,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0286,
        "quality_edge": -0.4464,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.6286,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6286,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.108,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4464
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.003325279317717913
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.05442542462138,
      "home_runs": 3.937692634252369,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_BOS@BAL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBAL

Published scoreBOS 4 - 6 BAL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 67.7% → blended 62.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=270

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2556

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.627737118209094-3.8936880678648325	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.676856,
    "sample_size": 270,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.563,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.619928,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7766,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.712,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2556
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021333319922350335
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02109727451443242
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020008280495755728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019786896166052375
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01959871920357305
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.024572627090541702,
      "1": 0.042674808147469094,
      "2": 0.06651414084687673,
      "3": 0.09304195240859296,
      "4": 0.11680624573353324,
      "5": 0.13160601436194308,
      "6": 0.1330784792210065,
      "7": 0.12077091108718682,
      "8": 0.09836470117752491,
      "9": 0.07190161284701052,
      "10": 0.04716940614813817,
      "11": 0.02777183689304613,
      "12": 0.0146747673319437,
      "13": 0.006959215154288767,
      "14": 0.002961909085048822,
      "15": 0.001131372465848741
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04672518039287791,
      "1": 0.0795096874600494,
      "2": 0.11657614002683518,
      "3": 0.1472718903784962,
      "4": 0.1603063098348276,
      "5": 0.15034948259761458,
      "6": 0.12149931350665433,
      "7": 0.08459920378280018,
      "8": 0.05075505380454007,
      "9": 0.026236921426837475,
      "10": 0.011686030681498039,
      "11": 0.004484786106968953
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0092,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.642,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2556,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5924,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2556,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.712,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0092,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260904_CHC@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 6 - 3 MIA

Final confidence72.5%

Calibrationraw 85.7% → blended 70.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=111

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7467

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.9205256249611455-3.1730099355983503	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

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    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.449038,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.724519,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.275481,
    "away_win_probability": 0.724519
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.449038,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 3 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.724519,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
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    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.857211,
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    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5495,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.703355,
    "published_confidence": 0.724519,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9291,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.408,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
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      },
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        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.021235413807163695
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06713388413574281,
      "1": 0.1121881416861558,
      "2": 0.1557919234762703,
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "2": 0.05634042918247752,
      "3": 0.08045418417604404,
      "4": 0.10396448407464033,
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 6 - 3 MIA",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 6 - 3 MIA",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
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    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
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    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
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          "12": 0.022154386557317357,
          "13": 0.011648420591779854,
          "14": 0.005542200595112785,
          "15": 0.0023861916456856835
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.9205256249611455,
      "home_runs": 3.1730099355983503,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_DET@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreDET 3 - 4 CLE

Final confidence52.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=384

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0337

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.458831464831952-3.861756773297834	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.050186,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.525093,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.525093,
    "away_win_probability": 0.474907
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.050186,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.525092605625,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 384,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5339,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.522,
    "published_confidence": 0.525093,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3573,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.76,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0337
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0359929051038467
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.033039397542110195
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03271955200007136
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03227801094124014
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03217917844818545
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07424592244263398,
      "1": 0.12330140312529564,
      "2": 0.16804929662260448,
      "3": 0.18796571813804844,
      "4": 0.17254161807537727,
      "5": 0.1299817421706361,
      "6": 0.08036077374580551,
      "7": 0.04077360719060456,
      "8": 0.01697803515765973,
      "9": 0.005801883331334281
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.077938227706582,
      "1": 0.12900289540024637,
      "2": 0.1740719122837123,
      "3": 0.1914865405265671,
      "4": 0.17172286128013015,
      "5": 0.12554467292752183,
      "6": 0.07482535282497477,
      "7": 0.036356290710265415,
      "8": 0.014400934393783857,
      "9": 0.00465031194621614
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0114,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.83,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0337,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5251,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5765,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5251,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0337,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.76,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0114,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "changes": [
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T16:42:35.359204+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-04T18:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
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    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546307,
      "confidence": 0.546307,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546307,
      "confidence": 0.546307,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 384,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5339,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.522
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.522,
        "final_confidence": 0.5083,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5083,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.970896,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 384,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5339,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5323,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0337,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.508252,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.970896,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.546307,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546307
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "CLE",
          "games": 140,
          "wins": 70,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 566,
          "runs_allowed": 577,
          "run_differential": -11,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.07857142857142857,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 139,
          "wins": 64,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.460431654676259,
          "runs_scored": 610,
          "runs_allowed": 563,
          "run_differential": 47,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.3381294964028777,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4167,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0396,
        "quality_edge": 0.0337,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.3573,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.3573,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.76,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0337
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.0359929051038467
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.033039397542110195
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.03271955200007136
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.03227801094124014
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03217917844818545
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07424592244263398,
          "1": 0.12330140312529564,
          "2": 0.16804929662260448,
          "3": 0.18796571813804844,
          "4": 0.17254161807537727,
          "5": 0.1299817421706361,
          "6": 0.08036077374580551,
          "7": 0.04077360719060456,
          "8": 0.01697803515765973,
          "9": 0.005801883331334281
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.077938227706582,
          "1": 0.12900289540024637,
          "2": 0.1740719122837123,
          "3": 0.1914865405265671,
          "4": 0.17172286128013015,
          "5": 0.12554467292752183,
          "6": 0.07482535282497477,
          "7": 0.036356290710265415,
          "8": 0.014400934393783857,
          "9": 0.00465031194621614
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.458831464831952,
      "home_runs": 3.861756773297834,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_DET@CLE_2

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreDET 3 - 4 CLE

Final confidence55.4%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 56.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=472

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0337

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.013420160146383-4.7701981897733035	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.108804,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554402,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.554402,
    "away_win_probability": 0.445598
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.108804,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.5544020825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 472,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5424,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5644,
    "published_confidence": 0.554402,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3573,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.76,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0337
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03126745227067852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029661615570665698
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028484904387846923
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02814037494480939
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02810623362151993
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0518468870072935,
      "1": 0.08782159243652142,
      "2": 0.12700464953131613,
      "3": 0.15681139688149193,
      "4": 0.16530093769873624,
      "5": 0.14876908822958834,
      "6": 0.11431146113669173,
      "7": 0.07499055039018318,
      "8": 0.04200132554036252,
      "9": 0.020084412979922254,
      "10": 0.00819964366446182,
      "11": 0.002858054503430896
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07544751279063107,
      "1": 0.12516125743220594,
      "2": 0.1700306968176068,
      "3": 0.18915471809158144,
      "4": 0.17232149305626532,
      "5": 0.12855653137070217,
      "6": 0.07853825903532265,
      "7": 0.03929170010873414,
      "8": 0.01609729110924141,
      "9": 0.005400540187708975
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0588,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.83,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0337,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5544,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6399,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5544,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0337,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.76,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0588,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260904_LAA@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreLAA 5 - 7 PIT

Final confidence66.2%

Calibrationraw 74.0% → blended 64.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=208

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8399

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.692339686389274-5.867464272293641	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.324054,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.662027,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.662027,
    "away_win_probability": 0.337973
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.324054,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 5 - 7 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.662027,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.74,
    "sample_size": 208,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5481,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.64405,
    "published_confidence": 0.662027,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9433,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.648,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8399
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017916378441716497
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01763702861964745
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      {
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        "probability": 0.0175188051726075
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01724565426078956
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016620012552019656
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01618171687122632,
      "1": 0.028347288993193005,
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      "15": 0.005244950572702188,
      "16": 0.002352735033339792
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03598774468969303,
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "home_runs": 5.867464272293641,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_MIL@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 8 - 5 CIN

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 72.8% → blended 63.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=211

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.5801

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.2290568973460445-3.6120819160971145	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.46,
    "away_win_probability": 0.54
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 8-5 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 8 - 5 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.728233,
    "sample_size": 211,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5498,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.639016,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
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      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
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      {
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.1919,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.444,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.5801
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
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        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.017977516053248533
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      {
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    "home_distribution": {
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 8 - 5 CIN",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "score_text": "MIL 8 - 5 CIN",
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    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1662,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.654,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 5,
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      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "CIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "pre_margin": 3,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6579,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
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      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5801,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.444,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1662,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 9
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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    "champion_reference": {
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "predicted_score": {
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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        }
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.728233,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
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          "published_score": {
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 73,
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          "runs_scored": 581,
          "runs_allowed": 689,
          "run_differential": -108,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.7714285714285715,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "run_differential": 171,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.9842,
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        "season_quality_edge": -2.1919,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment": -2.5282,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "season_quality_edge": -2.1919,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 2.198,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.2290568973460445,
      "home_runs": 3.6120819160971145,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_MIN@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 6 - 5 CHW

Final confidence53.8%

Calibrationraw 52.6% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.7% · weight 50.0% · n=469

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3587

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.80662634179421-4.009642046852451	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.076206,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.538103,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.461897,
    "away_win_probability": 0.538103
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.076206,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.538103205,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.526105,
    "sample_size": 469,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5373,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.531703,
    "published_confidence": 0.538103,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6143,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.116,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3587
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020712988364982112
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019938111746993937
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019641150706179757
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019376121413352845
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018966638921103587
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03409898933254442,
      "1": 0.05868738029577071,
      "2": 0.08903009160112488,
      "3": 0.11904681928071972,
      "4": 0.1403096858018939,
      "5": 0.14576269440094275,
      "6": 0.13347317847886198,
      "7": 0.1077284714031294,
      "8": 0.07664006634620281,
      "9": 0.04805849056235528,
      "10": 0.026562763774837753,
      "11": 0.012940923610608203,
      "12": 0.0055570738307222246,
      "13": 0.0021033712802859712
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0307043091621829,
      "1": 0.05301298193324477,
      "2": 0.0811920280532576,
      "3": 0.11030439024558761,
      "4": 0.13292922097101084,
      "5": 0.14210075115658774,
      "6": 0.1347474454070789,
      "7": 0.11334254494737715,
      "8": 0.0845694745168824,
      "9": 0.055973511975230636,
      "10": 0.03286243457568941,
      "11": 0.01711453739872489,
      "12": 0.007906401190405475,
      "13": 0.003239968466739713
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0323,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.046,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3587,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5381,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5343,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5381,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3587,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.116,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0323,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
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    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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  ]
}

20260904_NYY@SD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 6 - 3 SD

Final confidence64.3%

Calibrationraw 70.0% → blended 62.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=301

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7267

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.458104241105403-2.991556925567396	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 6,
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    "confidence": -0.28689,
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          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.378103,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.335008,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.963323,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.356555,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.643445
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": false,
        "sample_size": 0,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 140,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 67,
          "win_pct": 0.5214285714285715,
          "runs_scored": 594,
          "runs_allowed": 584,
          "run_differential": 10,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.07142857142857142,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 140,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 60,
          "win_pct": 0.5714285714285714,
          "runs_scored": 636,
          "runs_allowed": 521,
          "run_differential": 115,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8214285714285714,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.75,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.05,
        "quality_edge": -0.7267,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.825,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.825,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.544,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.7267
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3052,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3052,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7267,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.825,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.389,
          "home_runs": 1.817,
          "home_win_probability": 0.1114
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02562985901029771
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02495732895755707
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 6,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06467172211015669,
          "1": 0.10831091338200134,
          "2": 0.15140075539111503,
          "3": 0.17663708824852445,
          "4": 0.17200211346274807,
          "5": 0.13979244498477927,
          "6": 0.09482692103830807,
          "7": 0.05368804991168082,
          "8": 0.0253700685561761,
          "9": 0.010006073375370569,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.05750148569591238,
          "2": 0.0874040609396968,
          "3": 0.11725913026071906,
          "4": 0.13884307969460577,
          "5": 0.14509896683892948,
          "6": 0.13383414049975775,
          "7": 0.10895120062276913,
          "8": 0.07828159014291931,
          "9": 0.049642057085703926,
          "10": 0.027784488918396053,
          "11": 0.01372516479698539,
          "12": 0.005984050294746789,
          "13": 0.0023026896799651334
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.458104241105403,
      "home_runs": 2.991556925567396,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_OAK@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreOAK 5 - 6 SEA

Final confidence54.8%

Calibrationraw 62.6% → blended 58.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=550

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6249

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.1619122721683492-6.1482199913348605	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.096996,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548498,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.548498,
    "away_win_probability": 0.451502
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.096996,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 5 - 6 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.5484978125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.625747,
    "sample_size": 550,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.581073,
    "published_confidence": 0.548498,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9894,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.052,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6249
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018212549463208792
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017680512122611586
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017575137938342787
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017061721095289913
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017013736261517896
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02233648719422908,
      "1": 0.03887783977670049,
      "2": 0.061002316548922804,
      "3": 0.08628741915882314,
      "4": 0.11002859859182533,
      "5": 0.12647964369627937,
      "6": 0.1310667816655963,
      "7": 0.12243951130560288,
      "8": 0.10311159136783352,
      "9": 0.07827991432036074,
      "10": 0.05357351524875892,
      "11": 0.033052696501032625,
      "12": 0.018383178235222137,
      "13": 0.009217035285246932,
      "14": 0.004165996034753414,
      "15": 0.0016974750688121371
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028464227897829885,
      "1": 0.04925037906535402,
      "2": 0.07591411481138466,
      "3": 0.10424092884320858,
      "4": 0.1275136854273463,
      "5": 0.13895625750295967,
      "6": 0.13489697311498527,
      "7": 0.1166619110193656,
      "8": 0.08987910785837717,
      "9": 0.06168665272447509,
      "10": 0.03771607079501602,
      "11": 0.0205430283205918,
      "12": 0.009967936731815669,
      "13": 0.004308725887290287
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 5 - 6 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 5 - 6 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0343,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6249,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5485,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6218,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5485,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6249,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.052,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0343,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3"
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-05T01:35:46.429861+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-05T02:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.567125,
      "confidence": 0.567125,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 11
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
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    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 6,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_SF@NYM

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYM

Published scoreSF 4 - 5 NYM

Final confidence54.7%

Calibrationraw 57.5% → blended 55.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.7% · weight 50.0% · n=477

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0161

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.3934864974812324-5.686699898039637	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.093662,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.546831,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.546831,
    "away_win_probability": 0.453169
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.093662,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.54683075,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.575096,
    "sample_size": 477,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5367,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.555898,
    "published_confidence": 0.546831,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0875,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0875,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2186,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.36,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0161
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022236256404474512
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021958094503432835
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02161752934421159
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
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      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02011638413555686
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03529001322171086,
      "1": 0.06067040770921267,
      "2": 0.0917349094746527,
      "3": 0.1219902133732975,
      "4": 0.14267503115497793,
      "5": 0.14675861079045915,
      "6": 0.13276751878375923,
      "7": 0.1056361870533857,
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      "11": 0.011722561978786092,
      "12": 0.004908022783004444,
      "13": 0.0018072708068949692
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04029664047521598,
      "1": 0.06896436644068829,
      "2": 0.10286672839734472,
      "3": 0.13372708289505195,
      "4": 0.15151585508139806,
      "5": 0.1496204848571675,
      "6": 0.12877106900521418,
      "7": 0.09659170028298397,
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      "12": 0.0029171674531684785
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0755,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.185,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.3934864974812324,
      "home_runs": 5.686699898039637,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_STL@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSTL

Published scoreSTL 6 - 5 COL

Final confidence54.8%

Calibrationraw 63.4% → blended 58.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=550

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7151

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.494453303214445-4.550625694694075	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.096996,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548498,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.451502,
    "away_win_probability": 0.548498
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.096996,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 6 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.5484978125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.634261,
    "sample_size": 550,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.58533,
    "published_confidence": 0.548498,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0136,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0136,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1023,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7151
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017816092546895663
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017512161904962
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01702084471095254
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01684198861297657
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01673048046606348
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027293351595102704,
      "1": 0.04727790679283166,
      "2": 0.07312145036909055,
      "3": 0.10097562285271097,
      "4": 0.12450118099407491,
      "5": 0.13706153399444432,
      "6": 0.13472335574903535,
      "7": 0.11823753916726569,
      "8": 0.09265162900101089,
      "9": 0.06482401454349147,
      "10": 0.04049523968952815,
      "11": 0.02258693027036317,
      "12": 0.011248526481049724,
      "13": 0.00500171850000052
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.021436414754794225,
      "1": 0.037345278935656534,
      "2": 0.05875824594848005,
      "3": 0.08349327505779516,
      "4": 0.10714791626706469,
      "5": 0.12418396478506119,
      "6": 0.12998608747234527,
      "7": 0.12287903193655522,
      "8": 0.10490791349705422,
      "9": 0.08088877837906464,
      "10": 0.056327160995386386,
      "11": 0.03542395171299848,
      "12": 0.02011989504020063,
      "13": 0.01032057687753887,
      "14": 0.0047811436741439515,
      "15": 0.0020003646658602616
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0341,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1127,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7151,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5485,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6002,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5485,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7151,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.004,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0341,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 1.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 11,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-05T00:36:01.279448+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-05T00:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.432875,
      "confidence": 0.567125,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.432875,
      "confidence": 0.567125,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.634261,
        "sample_size": 550,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.5499,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5499,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.979401,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 0.6,
        "calibration_sample_size": 550,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5352,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7151,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.450112,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415639,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.979401,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.432875,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.567125
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.667,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0136,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0136,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 140,
          "wins": 54,
          "losses": 86,
          "win_pct": 0.38571428571428573,
          "runs_scored": 655,
          "runs_allowed": 795,
          "run_differential": -140,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "STL",
          "games": 141,
          "wins": 70,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.49645390070921985,
          "runs_scored": 633,
          "runs_allowed": 642,
          "run_differential": -9,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.06382978723404255,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.9362,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1107,
        "quality_edge": -0.7151,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.1023,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1023,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.004,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.7151
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3003,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3003,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7151,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1023,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 7.313,
          "home_runs": 3.983,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2169
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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            "away_runs": 6,
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          {
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            "probability": 0.01673048046606348
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "13": 0.00500171850000052
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.12418396478506119,
          "6": 0.12998608747234527,
          "7": 0.12287903193655522,
          "8": 0.10490791349705422,
          "9": 0.08088877837906464,
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          "11": 0.03542395171299848,
          "12": 0.02011989504020063,
          "13": 0.01032057687753887,
          "14": 0.0047811436741439515,
          "15": 0.0020003646658602616
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.494453303214445,
      "home_runs": 4.550625694694075,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_TB@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreTB 3 - 4 TEX

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 56.0% → blended 56.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=295

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4965

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.42869660030688-4.699247462980176	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.119868,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.559934,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.559934,
    "away_win_probability": 0.440066
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.119868,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.559934265,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.56,
    "sample_size": 295,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56135,
    "published_confidence": 0.559934,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0312,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0312,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7639,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.0,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4965
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026086164695827814
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025874136971162993
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025812828640711643
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025603022584985542
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022944368879554623
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.039755689307271976,
      "1": 0.06807204966298863,
      "2": 0.10168570229204382,
      "3": 0.13251727071684286,
      "4": 0.1506629956617166,
      "5": 0.14943841042529626,
      "6": 0.1293121717708113,
      "7": 0.0976198413094223,
      "8": 0.06429220404463151,
      "9": 0.03694026926171009,
      "10": 0.018516688662863618,
      "11": 0.008097447063751572,
      "12": 0.0030892598206495665
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062096948504769996,
      "1": 0.10423756630570548,
      "2": 0.1467130417435438,
      "3": 0.17314247988536643,
      "4": 0.17132825832475249,
      "5": 0.14214933116116868,
      "6": 0.09888970819120677,
      "7": 0.05768299800941348,
      "8": 0.028212073546078027,
      "9": 0.011569448162894317,
      "10": 0.003978146165100572
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.041,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4965,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5599,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5506,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5599,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4965,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.041,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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    },
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260904_TOR@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickKC

Published scoreTOR 5 - 7 KC

Final confidence55.7%

Calibrationraw 60.4% → blended 57.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=550

H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2344

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.612422541564724-5.803775993363978	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.114112,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.557056,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.557056,
    "away_win_probability": 0.442944
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.114112,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 5 - 7 KC",
    "confidence": 0.55705625,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.603659,
    "sample_size": 550,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57003,
    "published_confidence": 0.557056,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0682,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0682,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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          "win_pct": 0.44680851063829785,
          "runs_scored": 606,
          "runs_allowed": 691,
          "run_differential": -85,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.6028368794326241,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TOR",
          "games": 141,
          "wins": 70,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.49645390070921985,
          "runs_scored": 566,
          "runs_allowed": 607,
          "run_differential": -41,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2907801418439716,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.3121,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0496,
        "quality_edge": -0.2344,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.3865,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.3865,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.048,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.2344
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.018338544382535106
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.017757053946565193
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          {
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.01716556438361033
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 7,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.017062671121326464
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.022643874718731773,
          "1": 0.03940067178539155,
          "2": 0.06176532380705291,
          "3": 0.087231638721694,
          "4": 0.11099196811659529,
          "5": 0.12723227312195823,
          "6": 0.13139874973400015,
          "7": 0.12225690358499398,
          "8": 0.10248109663706088,
          "9": 0.07739311887231565,
          "10": 0.05265615531466034,
          "11": 0.0322763306498047,
          "12": 0.017824090495636134,
          "13": 0.008867859706153697,
          "14": 0.003974829109376224,
          "15": 0.0016051156245746139
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.028864879719375194,
          "1": 0.0499244085675647,
          "2": 0.076864340368364,
          "3": 0.10534299937955036,
          "4": 0.12851542419935846,
          "5": 0.13956407058407427,
          "6": 0.13491517491915211,
          "7": 0.11609587070829994,
          "8": 0.08892861829248695,
          "9": 0.060636638230940725,
          "10": 0.03680420877599518,
          "11": 0.019885140096131248,
          "12": 0.009563759002369023,
          "13": 0.004094467156337835
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.612422541564724,
      "home_runs": 5.803775993363978,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260904_WAS@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreWAS 4 - 5 LAD

Final confidence56.1%

Calibrationraw 57.1% → blended 55.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=480

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6286

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.2362226339363107-5.856983869023207	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.122996,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.561498,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.561498,
    "away_win_probability": 0.438502
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.122996,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.56149835,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.57066,
    "sample_size": 480,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5375,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.55408,
    "published_confidence": 0.561498,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.667,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0955,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0955,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.1329,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.308,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6286
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022376452285274337
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021581205676461337
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02111901810618391
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020989378062139
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020368460005360415
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03175185194677971,
      "1": 0.05476754231493199,
      "2": 0.0836311894192476,
      "3": 0.11305873550223373,
      "4": 0.13531028337163362,
      "5": 0.1433667078814494,
      "6": 0.13447967510150333,
      "7": 0.11167496346935295,
      "8": 0.08210050270809788,
      "9": 0.05343510203256294,
      "10": 0.030789192507309205,
      "11": 0.0157058260981112,
      "12": 0.007092740965437356,
      "13": 0.0028356866813491503
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04328857026040023,
      "1": 0.07389081038064411,
      "2": 0.10935142282949087,
      "3": 0.14030568487475792,
      "4": 0.15607844119415457,
      "5": 0.15053150062082013,
      "6": 0.12587187000087913,
      "7": 0.09125292595618248,
      "8": 0.05735638010842711,
      "9": 0.031256006670246375,
      "10": 0.014767333017063759,
      "11": 0.006049054086933452
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.021,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.042,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6286,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5615,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5386,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5615,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6286,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.308,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.021,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3"
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    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-05T01:35:45.625134+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-05T02:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.572351,
      "confidence": 0.572351,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
          "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
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            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
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            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.572351,
      "confidence": 0.572351,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.57066,
        "sample_size": 480,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5375,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
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        "shrinkage_weight": 0.976506,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 480,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5375,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5361,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6286,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
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          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.572351
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": 14.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
        "home_average_margin": 4.667,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0955,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0955,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 140,
          "wins": 83,
          "losses": 57,
          "win_pct": 0.5928571428571429,
          "runs_scored": 687,
          "runs_allowed": 540,
          "run_differential": 147,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.05,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "WAS",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.47183098591549294,
          "runs_scored": 735,
          "runs_allowed": 721,
          "run_differential": 14,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.09859154929577464,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9514,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.121,
        "quality_edge": 0.6286,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1329,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.308,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
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        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.264,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
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          "season_quality_edge": 1.1329,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 5.246,
          "home_win_probability": 0.608
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "8": 0.08210050270809788,
          "9": 0.05343510203256294,
          "10": 0.030789192507309205,
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          "11": 0.006049054086933452
        },
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.2362226339363107,
      "home_runs": 5.856983869023207,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260904	20260904_ARI@HOU	HOU	58.3%	67.2%	55.8%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	1-3	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 301, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5581, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6153, "published_confidence": 0.582503, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2837, "recent_quality_edge": 0.444, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.029 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024339357162644664 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024299854506829532 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022936748072765623 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022899521844538553 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02288460639968792 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03130352797720104, "1": 0.054017017997398616, "2": 0.08258953268693411, "3": 0.11188619289450308, "4": 0.1343028004769298, "5": 0.1428402906154408, "6": 0.134608804110708, "7": 0.11239663029362279, "8": 0.08315535090370892, "9": 0.05451100567257442, "10": 0.031661776039178156, "11": 0.01629458991581074, "12": 0.007430339917118373, "13": 0.0030021404988714094 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06006630543281374, "1": 0.10100415017863941, "2": 0.14290471615277575, "3": 0.1701190497592194, "4": 0.17039560097348067, "5": 0.14360278177411795, "6": 0.10182780235708246, "7": 0.06075316849939622, "8": 0.03049794231977182, "9": 0.012881640904909045, "10": 0.004577948280318913, "11": 0.0013688933674747556 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 6 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 6 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.038, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.444, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.029, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_ATL@PHI	ATL	56.0%	63.9%	56.3%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	5-2	hit	Variance Applied (-0.1167)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.638747, "sample_size": 295, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.600724, "published_confidence": 0.559934, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6286, "recent_quality_edge": -0.108, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4464 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03168343348015209 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02973622806771055 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02909490111381691 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02890989274118782 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02801368389047813 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08017724460141717, "1": 0.13244062432161127, "2": 0.17762902924272772, "3": 0.19343243374982, "4": 0.17102802499697073, "5": 0.12278007541969124, "6": 0.07156672468220754, "7": 0.03387014208215237, "8": 0.013015040560804773, "9": 0.004060660342597352 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.050133126284396846, "1": 0.0850486658553936, "2": 0.12356005803823868, "3": 0.15372927637446024, "4": 0.1637958684898239, "5": 0.1494573178900238, "6": 0.1167882918301834, "7": 0.07815365788802499, "8": 0.04478856967654663, "9": 0.02198127898937394, "10": 0.009238609365816197, "11": 0.003325279317717913 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 PHI", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 PHI", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1197, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.318, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4464, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_BOS@BAL	BAL	53.0%	67.7%	56.3%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	1-0	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.676856, "sample_size": 270, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.563, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.619928, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0288, "away_run_delta": -0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7766, "recent_quality_edge": 0.712, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2556 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021333319922350335 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02109727451443242 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020008280495755728 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019786896166052375 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01959871920357305 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.024572627090541702, "1": 0.042674808147469094, "2": 0.06651414084687673, "3": 0.09304195240859296, "4": 0.11680624573353324, "5": 0.13160601436194308, "6": 0.1330784792210065, "7": 0.12077091108718682, "8": 0.09836470117752491, "9": 0.07190161284701052, "10": 0.04716940614813817, "11": 0.02777183689304613, "12": 0.0146747673319437, "13": 0.006959215154288767, "14": 0.002961909085048822, "15": 0.001131372465848741 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04672518039287791, "1": 0.0795096874600494, "2": 0.11657614002683518, "3": 0.1472718903784962, "4": 0.1603063098348276, "5": 0.15034948259761458, "6": 0.12149931350665433, "7": 0.08459920378280018, "8": 0.05075505380454007, "9": 0.026236921426837475, "10": 0.011686030681498039, "11": 0.004484786106968953 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0092, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.642, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2556, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_CHC@MIA	CHC	72.5%	85.7%	54.9%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	6-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.857211, "sample_size": 111, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5495, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.703355, "published_confidence": 0.724519, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9291, "recent_quality_edge": -0.408, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7467 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02312688368709806 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.022176893559184067 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.0221450738289849 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021855713190081786 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.021235413807163695 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06713388413574281, "1": 0.1121881416861558, "2": 0.1557919234762703, "3": 0.17977766267401843, "4": 0.1723928802247061, "5": 0.1373712110259555, "6": 0.09096303317901182, "7": 0.05005263499542947, "8": 0.022886625495854667, "9": 0.008696197330423, "10": 0.0027458057764319765 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.020473251957149125, "1": 0.03570257577570827, "2": 0.05634042918247752, "3": 0.08045418417604404, "4": 0.10396448407464033, "5": 0.12157079397406353, "6": 0.12864158618544755, "7": 0.12318034120367569, "8": 0.10673560154444263, "9": 0.08369221929438736, "10": 0.05938390456928842, "11": 0.03812942867277999, "12": 0.022154386557317357, "13": 0.011648420591779854, "14": 0.005542200595112785, "15": 0.0023861916456856835 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 3 MIA", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 3 MIA", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0698, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.408, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7467, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_DET@CLE	CLE	52.5%	51.0%	53.4%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	6-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 384, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5339, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.522, "published_confidence": 0.525093, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3573, "recent_quality_edge": 0.76, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0337 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0359929051038467 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.033039397542110195 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03271955200007136 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03227801094124014 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03217917844818545 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07424592244263398, "1": 0.12330140312529564, "2": 0.16804929662260448, "3": 0.18796571813804844, "4": 0.17254161807537727, "5": 0.1299817421706361, "6": 0.08036077374580551, "7": 0.04077360719060456, "8": 0.01697803515765973, "9": 0.005801883331334281 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.077938227706582, "1": 0.12900289540024637, "2": 0.1740719122837123, "3": 0.1914865405265671, "4": 0.17172286128013015, "5": 0.12554467292752183, "6": 0.07482535282497477, "7": 0.036356290710265415, "8": 0.014400934393783857, "9": 0.00465031194621614 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0114, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.83, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0337, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_DET@CLE_2	CLE	55.4%	58.6%	54.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-4	hit	Variance Applied (0.2432)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 472, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5424, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5644, "published_confidence": 0.554402, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3573, "recent_quality_edge": 0.76, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0337 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03126745227067852 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029661615570665698 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028484904387846923 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02814037494480939 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02810623362151993 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0518468870072935, "1": 0.08782159243652142, "2": 0.12700464953131613, "3": 0.15681139688149193, "4": 0.16530093769873624, "5": 0.14876908822958834, "6": 0.11431146113669173, "7": 0.07499055039018318, "8": 0.04200132554036252, "9": 0.020084412979922254, "10": 0.00819964366446182, "11": 0.002858054503430896 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07544751279063107, "1": 0.12516125743220594, "2": 0.1700306968176068, "3": 0.18915471809158144, "4": 0.17232149305626532, "5": 0.12855653137070217, "6": 0.07853825903532265, "7": 0.03929170010873414, "8": 0.01609729110924141, "9": 0.005400540187708975 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0588, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.83, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0337, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_LAA@PIT	PIT	66.2%	74.0%	54.8%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	0-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.74, "sample_size": 208, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5481, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.64405, "published_confidence": 0.662027, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9433, "recent_quality_edge": 0.648, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8399 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017916378441716497 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01763702861964745 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0175188051726075 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01724565426078956 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016620012552019656 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.01618171687122632, "1": 0.028347288993193005, "2": 0.045347649036739136, "3": 0.06624518767158927, "4": 0.08837108866119, "5": 0.10765207071895451, "6": 0.11975423568726495, "7": 0.12165100215244976, "8": 0.11284876512944325, "9": 0.09559479443219862, "10": 0.07394826495093677, "11": 0.05223697820318411, "12": 0.03369647067562004, "13": 0.019849386949195497, "14": 0.010677414260772967, "15": 0.005244950572702188, "16": 0.002352735033339792 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03598774468969303, "1": 0.06183022807907852, "2": 0.09330865900392879, "3": 0.12368525508415396, "4": 0.14400872054184483, "5": 0.1472768668133467, "6": 0.13229857382280927, "7": 0.10438802246870654, "8": 0.07234708877015485, "9": 0.044041928863661504, "10": 0.023549759918281, "11": 0.011060672124814009, "12": 0.00456301015018127, "13": 0.0016534696693457133 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 7 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 7 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0165, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.648, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8399, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_MIL@CIN	MIL	54.0%	72.8%	55.0%	50.0%	8.0-5.0	10-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.728233, "sample_size": 211, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5498, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.639016, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.1919, "recent_quality_edge": -0.444, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.5801 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017977516053248533 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017827683498061277 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017572982501457276 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017426521507477047 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.016535982064908545 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03594919653064385, "1": 0.06176618685772334, "2": 0.09322192036137342, "3": 0.12359216807319585, "4": 0.14393602601816446, "5": 0.1472494619605845, "6": 0.13232551007322724, "7": 0.10445737031323397, "8": 0.07243363019961276, "9": 0.0441211746432023, "10": 0.02360801825685046, "11": 0.011096286207250717, "12": 0.00458143383788557, "13": 0.0016616166670514472 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01669586268392618, "1": 0.02923145344057419, "2": 0.046682864062476896, "3": 0.06800331956281183, "4": 0.09035834565876795, "5": 0.10951458610328962, "6": 0.12107129805902694, "7": 0.12208884035216866, "8": 0.11229910007640552, "9": 0.09421978757051577, "10": 0.07210634843790759, "11": 0.05033504049971417, "12": 0.032050357584853986, "13": 0.018614907118593486, "14": 0.009861759458145573, "15": 0.00476555487049834, "16": 0.002100574460323032 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 8 - 5 CIN", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 8 - 5 CIN", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1662, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.654, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "CIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5801, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_MIN@CHW	MIN	53.8%	52.6%	53.7%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	1-4	miss	Variance Applied (0.203)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.526105, "sample_size": 469, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5373, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.531703, "published_confidence": 0.538103, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6143, "recent_quality_edge": -0.116, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3587 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020712988364982112 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019938111746993937 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019641150706179757 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019376121413352845 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018966638921103587 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03409898933254442, "1": 0.05868738029577071, "2": 0.08903009160112488, "3": 0.11904681928071972, "4": 0.1403096858018939, "5": 0.14576269440094275, "6": 0.13347317847886198, "7": 0.1077284714031294, "8": 0.07664006634620281, "9": 0.04805849056235528, "10": 0.026562763774837753, "11": 0.012940923610608203, "12": 0.0055570738307222246, "13": 0.0021033712802859712 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0307043091621829, "1": 0.05301298193324477, "2": 0.0811920280532576, "3": 0.11030439024558761, "4": 0.13292922097101084, "5": 0.14210075115658774, "6": 0.1347474454070789, "7": 0.11334254494737715, "8": 0.0845694745168824, "9": 0.055973511975230636, "10": 0.03286243457568941, "11": 0.01711453739872489, "12": 0.007906401190405475, "13": 0.003239968466739713 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0323, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.046, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3587, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_NYY@SD	NYY	64.3%	70.0%	55.8%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	2-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.699962, "sample_size": 301, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5581, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.629031, "published_confidence": 0.643445, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.825, "recent_quality_edge": -0.544, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7267 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02562985901029771 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02495732895755707 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02452483732071299 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023881303147148956 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02364007288612113 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06467172211015669, "1": 0.10831091338200134, "2": 0.15140075539111503, "3": 0.17663708824852445, "4": 0.17200211346274807, "5": 0.13979244498477927, "6": 0.09482692103830807, "7": 0.05368804991168082, "8": 0.0253700685561761, "9": 0.010006073375370569, "10": 0.0032938495391394047 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03338789452889306, "1": 0.05750148569591238, "2": 0.0874040609396968, "3": 0.11725913026071906, "4": 0.13884307969460577, "5": 0.14509896683892948, "6": 0.13383414049975775, "7": 0.10895120062276913, "8": 0.07828159014291931, "9": 0.049642057085703926, "10": 0.027784488918396053, "11": 0.01372516479698539, "12": 0.005984050294746789, "13": 0.0023026896799651334 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 3 SD", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 3 SD", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.007, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.544, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7267, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_OAK@SEA	SEA	54.8%	62.6%	53.6%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	7-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.625747, "sample_size": 550, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.581073, "published_confidence": 0.548498, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 3.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0923, "away_run_delta": -0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9894, "recent_quality_edge": -0.052, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6249 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018212549463208792 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017680512122611586 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017575137938342787 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017061721095289913 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017013736261517896 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02233648719422908, "1": 0.03887783977670049, "2": 0.061002316548922804, "3": 0.08628741915882314, "4": 0.11002859859182533, "5": 0.12647964369627937, "6": 0.1310667816655963, "7": 0.12243951130560288, "8": 0.10311159136783352, "9": 0.07827991432036074, "10": 0.05357351524875892, "11": 0.033052696501032625, "12": 0.018383178235222137, "13": 0.009217035285246932, "14": 0.004165996034753414, "15": 0.0016974750688121371 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.028464227897829885, "1": 0.04925037906535402, "2": 0.07591411481138466, "3": 0.10424092884320858, "4": 0.1275136854273463, "5": 0.13895625750295967, "6": 0.13489697311498527, "7": 0.1166619110193656, "8": 0.08987910785837717, "9": 0.06168665272447509, "10": 0.03771607079501602, "11": 0.0205430283205918, "12": 0.009967936731815669, "13": 0.004308725887290287 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 5 - 6 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 5 - 6 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0343, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6249, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_SF@NYM	NYM	54.7%	57.5%	53.7%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-10	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.575096, "sample_size": 477, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5367, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.555898, "published_confidence": 0.546831, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 3.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0875, "away_run_delta": -0.0875, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2186, "recent_quality_edge": -0.36, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0161 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022236256404474512 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021958094503432835 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02161752934421159 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021347107338419276 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02011638413555686 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03529001322171086, "1": 0.06067040770921267, "2": 0.0917349094746527, "3": 0.1219902133732975, "4": 0.14267503115497793, "5": 0.14675861079045915, "6": 0.13276751878375923, "7": 0.1056361870533857, "8": 0.07392072636276809, "9": 0.045493815858276346, "10": 0.02462471064881435, "11": 0.011722561978786092, "12": 0.004908022783004444, "13": 0.0018072708068949692 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04029664047521598, "1": 0.06896436644068829, "2": 0.10286672839734472, "3": 0.13372708289505195, "4": 0.15151585508139806, "5": 0.1496204848571675, "6": 0.12877106900521418, "7": 0.09659170028298397, "8": 0.0631474165158583, "9": 0.03598037045336386, "10": 0.017867752999529682, "11": 0.007733365143014863, "12": 0.0029171674531684785 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0755, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.185, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0161, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_STL@COL	STL	54.8%	63.4%	53.6%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	7-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.634261, "sample_size": 550, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.58533, "published_confidence": 0.548498, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.667, "home_run_delta": -0.0136, "away_run_delta": 0.0136, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1023, "recent_quality_edge": 0.004, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7151 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017816092546895663 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017512161904962 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01702084471095254 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01684198861297657 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01673048046606348 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.027293351595102704, "1": 0.04727790679283166, "2": 0.07312145036909055, "3": 0.10097562285271097, "4": 0.12450118099407491, "5": 0.13706153399444432, "6": 0.13472335574903535, "7": 0.11823753916726569, "8": 0.09265162900101089, "9": 0.06482401454349147, "10": 0.04049523968952815, "11": 0.02258693027036317, "12": 0.011248526481049724, "13": 0.00500171850000052 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.021436414754794225, "1": 0.037345278935656534, "2": 0.05875824594848005, "3": 0.08349327505779516, "4": 0.10714791626706469, "5": 0.12418396478506119, "6": 0.12998608747234527, "7": 0.12287903193655522, "8": 0.10490791349705422, "9": 0.08088877837906464, "10": 0.056327160995386386, "11": 0.03542395171299848, "12": 0.02011989504020063, "13": 0.01032057687753887, "14": 0.0047811436741439515, "15": 0.0020003646658602616 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0341, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1127, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7151, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_TB@TEX	TEX	56.0%	56.0%	56.3%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	7-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.56, "sample_size": 295, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.56135, "published_confidence": 0.559934, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.25, "home_run_delta": 0.0312, "away_run_delta": -0.0312, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7639, "recent_quality_edge": 0.0, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4965 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026086164695827814 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025874136971162993 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025812828640711643 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025603022584985542 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022944368879554623 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.039755689307271976, "1": 0.06807204966298863, "2": 0.10168570229204382, "3": 0.13251727071684286, "4": 0.1506629956617166, "5": 0.14943841042529626, "6": 0.1293121717708113, "7": 0.0976198413094223, "8": 0.06429220404463151, "9": 0.03694026926171009, "10": 0.018516688662863618, "11": 0.008097447063751572, "12": 0.0030892598206495665 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.062096948504769996, "1": 0.10423756630570548, "2": 0.1467130417435438, "3": 0.17314247988536643, "4": 0.17132825832475249, "5": 0.14214933116116868, "6": 0.09888970819120677, "7": 0.05768299800941348, "8": 0.028212073546078027, "9": 0.011569448162894317, "10": 0.003978146165100572 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.041, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4965, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_TOR@KC	KC	55.7%	60.4%	53.6%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	9-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.603659, "sample_size": 550, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57003, "published_confidence": 0.557056, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": 3.333, "home_run_delta": 0.0682, "away_run_delta": -0.0682, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3865, "recent_quality_edge": 0.048, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2344 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018338544382535106 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017757053946565193 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017727685304520523 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01716556438361033 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017062671121326464 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.022643874718731773, "1": 0.03940067178539155, "2": 0.06176532380705291, "3": 0.087231638721694, "4": 0.11099196811659529, "5": 0.12723227312195823, "6": 0.13139874973400015, "7": 0.12225690358499398, "8": 0.10248109663706088, "9": 0.07739311887231565, "10": 0.05265615531466034, "11": 0.0322763306498047, "12": 0.017824090495636134, "13": 0.008867859706153697, "14": 0.003974829109376224, "15": 0.0016051156245746139 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.028864879719375194, "1": 0.0499244085675647, "2": 0.076864340368364, "3": 0.10534299937955036, "4": 0.12851542419935846, "5": 0.13956407058407427, "6": 0.13491517491915211, "7": 0.11609587070829994, "8": 0.08892861829248695, "9": 0.060636638230940725, "10": 0.03680420877599518, "11": 0.019885140096131248, "12": 0.009563759002369023, "13": 0.004094467156337835 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "TOR 5 - 7 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "TOR 5 - 7 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0392, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1647, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2344, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260904	20260904_WAS@LAD	LAD	56.1%	57.1%	53.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.57066, "sample_size": 480, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5375, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.55408, "published_confidence": 0.561498, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 4.667, "home_run_delta": 0.0955, "away_run_delta": -0.0955, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.1329, "recent_quality_edge": -0.308, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6286 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022376452285274337 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021581205676461337 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02111901810618391 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020989378062139 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020368460005360415 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03175185194677971, "1": 0.05476754231493199, "2": 0.0836311894192476, "3": 0.11305873550223373, "4": 0.13531028337163362, "5": 0.1433667078814494, "6": 0.13447967510150333, "7": 0.11167496346935295, "8": 0.08210050270809788, "9": 0.05343510203256294, "10": 0.030789192507309205, "11": 0.0157058260981112, "12": 0.007092740965437356, "13": 0.0028356866813491503 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04328857026040023, "1": 0.07389081038064411, "2": 0.10935142282949087, "3": 0.14030568487475792, "4": 0.15607844119415457, "5": 0.15053150062082013, "6": 0.12587187000087913, "7": 0.09125292595618248, "8": 0.05735638010842711, "9": 0.031256006670246375, "10": 0.014767333017063759, "11": 0.006049054086933452 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.021, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.042, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6286, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.1071, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3929 }
R	{ "mae": 2.2857, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5714 }
ER	{ "mae": 2.1786, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.75 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.3571, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2857 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.3214, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.8929 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.7857, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2143 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.5, "mae_innings": 0.8333, "bias_outs": 0.5 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260904

20260904_ARI@HOU

away

Merrill Kelly

True

5.0

6.0

5/7

4/0

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.082352941176471,
      "WHIP": 1.4823529411764707,
      "IP": 141.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.0761,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0915,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 1.1863,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.356,
      "xwoba": 0.392,
      "barrel_percent": 12.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 546,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2683,
            "WHIP": 1.4634,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80488,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65854,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69512,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10976
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.9,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0909,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52727,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76364,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12727
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 141.2,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 146.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 95.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 616.0,
            "Pitches": 2278.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.32,
            "H": 5.84,
            "BB": 2.56,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.04,
            "BF": 24.64,
            "Pitches": 91.12
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0824,
            "WHIP": 1.4824,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45176,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67059,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18353
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.88,
        "predicted_H": 4.788,
        "predicted_BB": 2.928,
        "predicted_SO": 4.091,
        "predicted_HR": 0.725,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7607,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4173
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.88,
          "final": 2.51,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.788,
          "final": 4.8771,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.928,
          "final": 3.3787,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.091,
          "final": 3.2119,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.725,
          "final": 0.4202,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7607,
          "final": 4.7607,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4173,
          "final": 1.4173,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 29,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.090909090909091,
        "WHIP": 1.3636363636363635,
        "K9": 6.872727272727273,
        "HR9": 1.1454545454545455,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9709684823206615,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
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              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5248,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0071,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4539,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.461,
        "offense_index": 0.9959,
        "defense_index": 1.0025,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0202
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5106,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 677.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2695,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5319,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8014,
        "offense_index": 1.0134,
        "defense_index": 0.9314,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0459
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0257,
        "offense_edge": -0.0041,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0134,
        "defense_strength": 0.0025,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0686,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9985,
        "run_prevention": 1.0032,
        "strikeout": 0.9982
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "518876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "518876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 535.0,
            "k_percent": 15.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.4,
            "woba": 0.356,
            "xwoba": 0.392,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3163,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8492,
            "whiff_percent": 21.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.4298,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6529,
            "regression_edge": -1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0345
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "518876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.25223922501904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2316.2310668157406,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.25223922501904,
                "release_spin_rate": 2316.2310668157406,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2522,
              "release_spin_rate": 2316.2311,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0345,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2463,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.0761,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0915,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
          "walk_factor": 1.024,
          "homer_factor": 1.1863,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.036,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "518876",
            "espn_id": 32968,
            "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 546,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 546,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 304,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 54,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 72,
              "era_value": 5.0823,
              "era_rank": 51.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": 7,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 141.2,
              "ip_rank": 48,
              "h_value": 146.0,
              "h_rank": 18,
              "er_value": 80.0,
              "er_rank": 8,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 8,
              "bb_value": 64.0,
              "bb_rank": 9,
              "k_value": 95.0,
              "k_rank": 104,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.035294,
              "k_per_9_rank": 58,
              "whip_value": 1.4823,
              "whip_rank": 51.0,
              "war_value": -0.05,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0915,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0915,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1863,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9429,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_ARI@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_ARI@HOU

home

Cristian Javier

True

4.1

5.0

-3

5/1

3/3

3/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.447761194029851,
      "WHIP": 1.6343283582089554,
      "IP": 44.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.917,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.247,
      "sample_weight": 0.668,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.021,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0069,
      "walk_factor": 1.0013,
      "homer_factor": 1.0294,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.373,
      "xwoba": 0.346,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 780,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7857,
            "WHIP": 1.4571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 156.0,
            "Pitches": 645.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 15.6,
            "Pitches": 64.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8396,
            "WHIP": 1.4434,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53774,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16038,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28302,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07547,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16981
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.2,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 204.0,
            "Pitches": 821.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.4615,
            "R": 2.4615,
            "H": 4.1538,
            "BB": 1.4615,
            "SO": 3.2308,
            "HR": 0.6154,
            "BF": 15.6923,
            "Pitches": 63.1538
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4478,
            "WHIP": 1.6343,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71642,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20896,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42537,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9403,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1791
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.421,
        "predicted_H": 4.771,
        "predicted_BB": 1.205,
        "predicted_SO": 3.966,
        "predicted_HR": 0.739,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.2764,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4473
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4674,
      "form_weight": 0.5326,
      "form_reliability": 0.7222,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.421,
          "final": 3.159,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.771,
          "final": 4.878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.205,
          "final": 2.0439,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.966,
          "final": 3.5145,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.739,
          "final": 0.861,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.2764,
          "final": 5.2764,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4473,
          "final": 1.4473,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 35.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.839622641509434,
        "WHIP": 1.4433962264150946,
        "K9": 9.679245283018869,
        "HR9": 1.528301886792453,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0571927533326684,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7222,
          "prior_weight": 0.2778
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5106,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 677.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2695,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5319,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8014,
        "offense_index": 1.0134,
        "defense_index": 0.9314,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0459
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5248,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0071,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4539,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.461,
        "offense_index": 0.9959,
        "defense_index": 1.0025,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0202
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0257,
        "offense_edge": 0.0134,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0041,
        "defense_strength": -0.0686,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0025,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9991,
        "run_prevention": 1.0049,
        "strikeout": 1.0011
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 167.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.373,
            "xwoba": 0.346,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.3139,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2307,
            "whiff_percent": 28.3,
            "swing_percent": 52.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8185,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0664,
            "regression_edge": 0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4429,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.073
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.56457245574717,
              "release_spin_rate": 2333.204506137456,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.56457245574717,
                "release_spin_rate": 2333.204506137456,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5646,
              "release_spin_rate": 2333.2045,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.073,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5214,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.247,
          "sample_weight": 0.668,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.021,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0069,
          "walk_factor": 1.0013,
          "homer_factor": 1.0294,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664299",
            "espn_id": 41261,
            "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 780,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 780,
              "gp_value": 13.0,
              "gp_rank": 478,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 183,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 6.4477,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 402,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 130,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 44.2,
              "ip_rank": 324,
              "h_value": 54.0,
              "h_rank": 209,
              "er_value": 32.0,
              "er_rank": 171,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 197,
              "bb_value": 19.0,
              "bb_rank": 301,
              "k_value": 42.0,
              "k_rank": 327,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.462687,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.6343,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.55,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0009,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0196,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_ARI@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_ATL@PHI

away

Chris Sale

True

6.1

6.0

-1

6/6

0/1

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.0625,
      "WHIP": 1.0,
      "IP": 144.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 9.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7112,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9395,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0794,
      "walk_factor": 0.914,
      "homer_factor": 0.9085,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.7,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.257,
      "xwoba": 0.269,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 7,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 508.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 101.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6364,
            "WHIP": 0.8182,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18182,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75758,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06061,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30303,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 930.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.95,
            "WHIP": 0.9333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.11667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.0,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 116.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 576.0,
            "Pitches": 2280.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.375,
            "R": 1.5833,
            "H": 4.8333,
            "BB": 1.1667,
            "SO": 7.375,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0625,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22917,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80556,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19444,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05556
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.602,
        "predicted_H": 5.167,
        "predicted_BB": 0.962,
        "predicted_SO": 7.737,
        "predicted_HR": 0.277,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.2861,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.972
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.602,
          "final": 2.1931,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.167,
          "final": 5.5192,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.962,
          "final": 0.5552,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 7.737,
          "final": 6.1569,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.277,
          "final": 1.0056,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.2861,
          "final": 2.2861,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.972,
          "final": 0.972,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 78,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.95,
        "WHIP": 0.9333333333333333,
        "K9": 11.7,
        "HR9": 0.3,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.719358633835813,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "player_name": "Chris Sale",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 4,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
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              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.1,
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            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5929,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 535.0,
        "run_differential": 118.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8429,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6643,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8214,
        "offense_index": 1.0411,
        "defense_index": 1.1724,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2874
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5643,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 595.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5071,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.25,
        "offense_index": 1.006,
        "defense_index": 1.0542,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1562
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1312,
        "offense_edge": 0.0411,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.006,
        "defense_strength": 0.1724,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0542,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0102,
        "run_prevention": 0.9772,
        "strikeout": 1.0035
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "519242",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 491.0,
            "k_percent": 30.7,
            "bb_percent": 4.9,
            "woba": 0.257,
            "xwoba": 0.269,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9742,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.351,
            "whiff_percent": 30.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.86,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0357,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7286,
            "bb_edge": 1.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0669
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "519242",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 100,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 100,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.67399153905109,
              "release_spin_rate": 2344.7057974290524,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 100,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.67399153905109,
                "release_spin_rate": 2344.7057974290524,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.674,
              "release_spin_rate": 2344.7058,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0669,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4776,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7112,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9395,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0794,
          "walk_factor": 0.914,
          "homer_factor": 0.9085,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "519242",
            "espn_id": 30948,
            "player_name": "Chris Sale",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 7,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 7,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 323,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 65,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 2.0625,
              "era_rank": 3.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 9,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 26,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 144.0,
              "ip_rank": 46,
              "h_value": 116.0,
              "h_rank": 78,
              "er_value": 33.0,
              "er_rank": 168,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 197,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 175,
              "k_value": 177.0,
              "k_rank": 10,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.0625,
              "k_per_9_rank": 5,
              "whip_value": 1.0,
              "whip_rank": 6.0,
              "war_value": 5.06,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9395,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9395,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.914,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9085,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0794,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_ATL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_ATL@PHI

home

Cristopher Sánchez

True

6.1

6.0

-1

8/5

1/3

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.515209125475285,
      "WHIP": 1.1920152091254752,
      "IP": 175.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.262,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5142,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9563,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 0.9954,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.281,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 32.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 1,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0543,
            "WHIP": 1.1413,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22826,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94565,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19565,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1087,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 251.0,
            "Pitches": 956.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.1,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5486,
            "WHIP": 1.4057,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27429,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10286
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 175.1,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 170.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 202.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 726.0,
            "Pitches": 2673.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.9643,
            "H": 6.0714,
            "BB": 1.3929,
            "SO": 7.2143,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.9286,
            "Pitches": 95.4643
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5152,
            "WHIP": 1.192,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27947,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96958,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22243,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15209,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 2.9421,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
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      "player_id": "650911",
      "player_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 140,
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        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5643,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 595.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5071,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 11.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 140,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5929,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 535.0,
        "run_differential": 118.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8429,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6643,
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        "offense_index": 1.0411,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 10.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1312,
        "offense_edge": 0.006,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0411,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1724,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0077,
        "strikeout": 0.9928
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650911",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650911",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.281,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.0953,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4375,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9493,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650911",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.39508390967275,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "release_speed": 90.39508390967275,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3951,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.2108,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5142,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9563,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "650911",
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            "player_name": "Cristopher Sanchez",
            "team": "PHI",
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            "espn_rank": 1,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 232,
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              "qs_value": 19.0,
              "qs_rank": 2,
              "era_value": 2.5152,
              "era_rank": 6.0,
              "w_value": 16.0,
              "w_rank": 1,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 170,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 175.1,
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              "h_value": 170.0,
              "h_rank": 3,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 100,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 101,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 83,
              "k_value": 202.0,
              "k_rank": 6,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.368821,
              "k_per_9_rank": 54,
              "whip_value": 1.192,
              "whip_rank": 28.0,
              "war_value": 7.6,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9563,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9954,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0771,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_ER": 2,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 118,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_ATL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_BOS@BAL

away

Ranger Suarez

True

5.0

7.0

-3

2/5

2/1

2/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6388140161725064,
      "WHIP": 1.2371967654986522,
      "IP": 123.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.153,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1865,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9841,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9903,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.925,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 97,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 438.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 87.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7042,
            "WHIP": 1.5634,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6338,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09859,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59155,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12676
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 206.0,
            "Pitches": 817.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 81.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7872,
            "WHIP": 1.4255,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53191,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10638,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31915,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93617,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08511
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 123.2,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 119.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 516.0,
            "Pitches": 2013.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0833,
            "R": 2.2083,
            "H": 4.75,
            "BB": 1.625,
            "SO": 4.9583,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 83.875
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6388,
            "WHIP": 1.2372,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40431,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92183,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31536,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96226,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06469
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.593,
        "predicted_H": 5.017,
        "predicted_BB": 1.824,
        "predicted_SO": 3.883,
        "predicted_HR": 0.515,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8838,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4313
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.593,
          "final": 2.7651,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.017,
          "final": 3.7413,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.824,
          "final": 1.8984,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.883,
          "final": 3.0868,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.515,
          "final": 0.2972,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8838,
          "final": 4.8838,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4313,
          "final": 1.4313,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.787234042553192,
        "WHIP": 1.425531914893617,
        "K9": 8.425531914893616,
        "HR9": 0.7659574468085106,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0508524281620542,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.539,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5532,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4894,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9362,
        "offense_index": 1.0021,
        "defense_index": 1.1382,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0661
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4894,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
        "runs_allowed": 661.0,
        "run_differential": -21.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1489,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.539,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6879,
        "offense_index": 1.0131,
        "defense_index": 0.9557,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0077
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0584,
        "offense_edge": 0.0021,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0131,
        "defense_strength": 0.1382,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0443,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.006,
        "run_prevention": 0.9854,
        "strikeout": 1.0007
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "624133",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "624133",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 467.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.9328,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1318,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3837,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0121,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2148
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "624133",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.0327454593224,
              "release_spin_rate": 1975.9626802659607,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.0327454593224,
                "release_spin_rate": 1975.9626802659607,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.0327,
              "release_spin_rate": 1975.9627,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2148,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5341,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1865,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9841,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9903,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.925,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "624133",
            "espn_id": 39817,
            "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 97,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 97,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 323,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 65,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 76,
              "era_value": 3.6388,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 137,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 170,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 123.2,
              "ip_rank": 85,
              "h_value": 114.0,
              "h_rank": 82,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 98,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 197,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 83,
              "k_value": 119.0,
              "k_rank": 65,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.6603775,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.2371,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.68,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9841,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9841,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.925,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_BOS@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_BOS@BAL

home

Shane Baz

True

5.2

6.1

-3

4/4

1/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.012738853503185,
      "WHIP": 1.3503184713375795,
      "IP": 157.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.815,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0683,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.0066,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 117,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7093,
            "WHIP": 1.2558,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52326,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97674,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06977
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6964,
            "WHIP": 1.3214,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41071,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 157.0,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 157.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 139.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 669.0,
            "Pitches": 2556.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5926,
            "R": 2.963,
            "H": 5.8148,
            "BB": 2.037,
            "SO": 5.1481,
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            "Pitches": 94.6667
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0127,
            "WHIP": 1.3503,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44586,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35032,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88535,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07006
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.679,
        "predicted_H": 5.501,
        "predicted_BB": 1.892,
        "predicted_SO": 5.332,
        "predicted_HR": 0.406,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2551,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3046
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.679,
          "final": 3.2285,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.501,
          "final": 4.8766,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.892,
          "final": 1.5209,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.2551,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3046,
          "final": 1.3046,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.696428571428572,
        "WHIP": 1.3214285714285716,
        "K9": 8.357142857142858,
        "HR9": 0.32142857142857145,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9255342290739084,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "player_name": "Shane Baz",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 141,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4894,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
        "runs_allowed": 661.0,
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        "avg_runs_scored": 4.539,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6879,
        "offense_index": 1.0131,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5532,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4894,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9362,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0661
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0584,
        "offense_edge": 0.0131,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0021,
        "defense_strength": -0.0443,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9981
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669358",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669358",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287280515663,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.76192251441194,
                "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287280515663,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.7619,
              "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0501,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3575,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0683,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.0066,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669358",
            "espn_id": 39639,
            "player_name": "Shane Baz",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 117,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 117,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 253,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 21,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 41,
              "era_value": 4.0127,
              "era_rank": 33.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 137,
              "l_value": 14.0,
              "l_rank": 2,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 157.0,
              "ip_rank": 16,
              "h_value": 157.0,
              "h_rank": 8,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 23,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 141,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 20,
              "k_value": 139.0,
              "k_rank": 38,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.968153,
              "k_per_9_rank": 64,
              "whip_value": 1.3503,
              "whip_rank": 42.0,
              "war_value": 1.5,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0058,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0058,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0066,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9789,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_BOS@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_CHC@MIA

away

Shota Imanaga

True

5.1

6.0

2/3

3/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.011086474501108,
      "WHIP": 1.1441241685144123,
      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.568,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1831,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9844,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0349,
      "walk_factor": 0.93,
      "homer_factor": 1.0279,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.32,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 29.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 138,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.8,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9559,
            "WHIP": 1.5441,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66176,
            "H_per_IP": 1.27941,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26471,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27941,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.39706
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 900.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4615,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07692,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 137.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 148.0,
            "HR": 33.0,
            "BF": 616.0,
            "Pitches": 2413.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4815,
            "R": 2.5556,
            "H": 5.0741,
            "BB": 1.2963,
            "SO": 5.4815,
            "HR": 1.2222,
            "BF": 22.8148,
            "Pitches": 89.3704
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0111,
            "WHIP": 1.1441,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44568,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91131,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23282,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98448,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21951
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.659,
        "predicted_H": 5.64,
        "predicted_BB": 1.366,
        "predicted_SO": 5.735,
        "predicted_HR": 1.461,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6588,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3639
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.659,
          "final": 1.5529,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.64,
          "final": 4.1258,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.366,
          "final": 2.0457,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.735,
          "final": 5.4292,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.461,
          "final": 0.8532,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6588,
          "final": 4.6588,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3639,
          "final": 1.3639,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 3.4615384615384617,
        "WHIP": 1.2692307692307692,
        "K9": 9.692307692307692,
        "HR9": 2.25,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8978041466563258,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5603,
        "runs_scored": 753.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": 133.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9433,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3404,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3972,
        "offense_index": 1.192,
        "defense_index": 1.0189,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1321
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5035,
        "runs_scored": 615.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0993,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3617,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2624,
        "offense_index": 0.9736,
        "defense_index": 1.0511,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0198
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1519,
        "offense_edge": 0.192,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0264,
        "defense_strength": 0.0189,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0511,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0077,
        "run_prevention": 0.9863,
        "strikeout": 1.0067
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "684007",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "684007",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 577.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.32,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9638,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.799,
            "whiff_percent": 29.2,
            "swing_percent": 51.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0201,
            "command_and_miss": 0.51,
            "regression_edge": 0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1878
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "684007",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.5154055046095,
              "release_spin_rate": 2045.9740460181658,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.5154055046095,
                "release_spin_rate": 2045.9740460181658,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.5154,
              "release_spin_rate": 2045.974,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1878,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3411,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1831,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9844,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0349,
          "walk_factor": 0.93,
          "homer_factor": 1.0279,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_id": 5134630,
            "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 138,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 138,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 253,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 21,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 41,
              "era_value": 4.011,
              "era_rank": 32.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 60,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 14,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 150.1,
              "ip_rank": 31,
              "h_value": 137.0,
              "h_rank": 32,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 33,
              "hr_value": 33.0,
              "hr_rank": 1,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 116,
              "k_value": 148.0,
              "k_rank": 29,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.860311,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.1441,
              "whip_rank": 19.0,
              "war_value": 1.28,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.93,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0349,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_CHC@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_CHC@MIA

home

Janson Junk

True

5.0

-3

7/3

1/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.106796116504855,
      "WHIP": 1.3009708737864079,
      "IP": 103.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.1,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2553,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0217,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9103,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 1.0163,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
      "whiff_percent": 15.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 208,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 85.0,
            "Pitches": 311.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 17.0,
            "Pitches": 62.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1094,
            "WHIP": 1.0781,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23438,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23438,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 180.0,
            "Pitches": 671.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 2.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 67.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1395,
            "WHIP": 1.3023,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95349,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09302
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 103.0,
            "ER": 47.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 106.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 435.0,
            "Pitches": 1626.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2381,
            "R": 2.4762,
            "H": 5.0476,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 3.3333,
            "HR": 0.5714,
            "BF": 20.7143,
            "Pitches": 77.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1068,
            "WHIP": 1.301,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45631,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27184,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67961,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1165
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.613,
        "predicted_H": 4.246,
        "predicted_BB": 1.366,
        "predicted_SO": 2.76,
        "predicted_HR": 0.334,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.177,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2283
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.613,
          "final": 2.6424,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.246,
          "final": 5.4337,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.366,
          "final": 1.2082,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.76,
          "final": 3.2947,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.334,
          "final": 0.6212,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.177,
          "final": 3.177,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2283,
          "final": 1.2283,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.0,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 27,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.13953488372093,
        "WHIP": 1.302325581395349,
        "K9": 5.651162790697675,
        "HR9": 0.8372093023255814,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.862406114455968,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5035,
        "runs_scored": 615.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0993,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3617,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2624,
        "offense_index": 0.9736,
        "defense_index": 1.0511,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0198
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5603,
        "runs_scored": 753.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": 133.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9433,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3404,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3972,
        "offense_index": 1.192,
        "defense_index": 1.0189,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1321
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1519,
        "offense_edge": -0.0264,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.192,
        "defense_strength": 0.0511,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0189,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9878,
        "run_prevention": 1.0332,
        "strikeout": 0.9801
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676083",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676083",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 372.0,
            "k_percent": 16.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6181,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5613,
            "whiff_percent": 15.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.126,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7279,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": -1.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0867
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676083",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.32055855990507,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.610368540037,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.32055855990507,
                "release_spin_rate": 2207.610368540037,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3206,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.6104,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0867,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.619,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2553,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0217,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9103,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0163,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676083",
            "espn_id": 4881980,
            "player_name": "Janson Junk",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 208,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 208,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 364,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 93,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 136,
              "era_value": 4.1067,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 101,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 46,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 265,
              "ip_value": 103.0,
              "ip_rank": 113,
              "h_value": 106.0,
              "h_rank": 102,
              "er_value": 47.0,
              "er_rank": 113,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 126,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 175,
              "k_value": 70.0,
              "k_rank": 169,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.1165047,
              "k_per_9_rank": 40,
              "whip_value": 1.3009,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.78,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0163,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9103,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_CHC@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_DET@CLE

away

Keider Montero

Andrew Sears

False

6.0

5.2

-1

5/4

2/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.237410071942446,
      "WHIP": 0.9928057553956835,
      "IP": 139.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1155,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9902,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9314,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 0.9761,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.5,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.287,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 24,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 139.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.237,
      "season_WHIP": 0.993,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672456",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 407.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 81.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8256,
            "WHIP": 0.907,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.45349,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10465
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 191.0,
            "Pitches": 701.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.1,
            "Pitches": 70.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3022,
            "WHIP": 1.036,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36691,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79856,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23741,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71223,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10791
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.0,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 107.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 92.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 556.0,
            "Pitches": 2002.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7857,
            "R": 1.9286,
            "H": 3.8214,
            "BB": 1.1071,
            "SO": 3.2857,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.8571,
            "Pitches": 71.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2374,
            "WHIP": 0.9928,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35971,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76978,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22302,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66187,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10072
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.938,
        "predicted_H": 4.005,
        "predicted_BB": 1.439,
        "predicted_SO": 3.392,
        "predicted_HR": 0.59,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.286,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0258
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.938,
          "final": 1.9637,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.005,
          "final": 4.4169,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.439,
          "final": 1.6713,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.392,
          "final": 4.8857,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.59,
          "final": 0.7597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.286,
          "final": 3.286,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0258,
          "final": 1.0258,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.3021582733812953,
        "WHIP": 1.0359712230215827,
        "K9": 6.410071942446044,
        "HR9": 0.9712230215827339,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.874042386833415,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672456",
      "player_name": "Keider Montero",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            },
            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4604,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 563.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3381,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3885,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0504,
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          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0623
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 566.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": -11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0786,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0429,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1214,
        "offense_index": 0.8985,
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          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0254
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0877,
        "offense_edge": -0.0247,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1015,
        "defense_strength": 0.1109,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0917,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0039,
        "run_prevention": 0.9771,
        "strikeout": 1.0055
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672456",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672456",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 528.0,
            "k_percent": 16.5,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.264,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0854,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6257,
            "whiff_percent": 18.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5533,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4971,
            "regression_edge": -0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0086
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672456",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.022307065353,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.6795124392715,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.022307065353,
                "release_spin_rate": 2355.6795124392715,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0223,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.6795,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0086,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0617,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1155,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9902,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9314,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "672456",
            "espn_id": 5182933,
            "player_name": "Keider Montero",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 24,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 24,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 232,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 82,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 63,
              "era_value": 3.2374,
              "era_rank": 20.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 46,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 134,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 139.0,
              "ip_rank": 51,
              "h_value": 107.0,
              "h_rank": 98,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 98,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 101,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 145,
              "k_value": 92.0,
              "k_rank": 112,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.9568343,
              "k_per_9_rank": 59,
              "whip_value": 0.9928,
              "whip_rank": 5.0,
              "war_value": 3.31,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9761,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9314,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_DET@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_DET@CLE

home

Logan Allen

Foster Griffin

False

3.0

6.0

2/8

2/2

3/3

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 14.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.333,
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      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9968,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9895,
      "walk_factor": 0.9712,
      "homer_factor": 1.0408,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.364,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 11.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
      "whiff_percent": 20.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 569,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        "prior_weight": 0.6345
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671106",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
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            "Pitches": 180.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 9.6,
            "Pitches": 36.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2258,
            "WHIP": 1.4516,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58065,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16129,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.29032
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 67.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
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            "R": 1.5,
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            "BB": 0.6667,
            "SO": 2.5,
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            "Pitches": 43.8333
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.18605,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04651,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2093
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
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            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04651,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2093
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.926,
        "predicted_H": 3.864,
        "predicted_BB": 1.264,
        "predicted_SO": 3.306,
        "predicted_HR": 0.722,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6739,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3829
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.3655,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 2.88,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.926,
          "final": 0.7356,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.864,
          "final": 2.7119,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.264,
          "final": 1.7189,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.306,
          "final": 3.1169,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.722,
          "final": 0.2757,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6739,
          "final": 4.6739,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3829,
          "final": 1.3829,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 14.1,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 17,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 15,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.7674418604651163,
        "WHIP": 1.4651162790697674,
        "K9": 9.41860465116279,
        "HR9": 1.8837209302325582,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.970546193164511,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.88,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3655,
          "prior_weight": 0.6345
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671106",
      "player_name": "Logan Allen",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.3571,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.3571,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.3571,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.3571,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 566.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": -11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0786,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0429,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1214,
        "offense_index": 0.8985,
        "defense_index": 1.0917,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0254
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4604,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 563.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3381,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3885,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0504,
        "offense_index": 0.9753,
        "defense_index": 1.1109,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0623
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0877,
        "offense_edge": -0.1015,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0247,
        "defense_strength": 0.0917,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1109,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0072,
        "run_prevention": 0.9825,
        "strikeout": 1.0046
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671106",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671106",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 42.0,
            "k_percent": 22.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.364,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 23.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4861,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.4449,
            "whiff_percent": 20.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1386,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0379,
            "regression_edge": 1.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6571,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2094
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671106",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 59,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 59,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.12961050551412,
              "release_spin_rate": 2096.6124427161913,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 59,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.12961050551412,
                "release_spin_rate": 2096.6124427161913,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.1296,
              "release_spin_rate": 2096.6124,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2094,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.4954,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.038,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9968,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9895,
          "walk_factor": 0.9712,
          "homer_factor": 1.0408,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.066,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671106",
            "espn_id": 4683350,
            "player_name": "Logan Allen",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 569,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 569,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 596,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 294,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.7674,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 524,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 570,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 14.1,
              "ip_rank": 558,
              "h_value": 17.0,
              "h_rank": 535,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 617,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 431,
              "bb_value": 4.0,
              "bb_rank": 639,
              "k_value": 15.0,
              "k_rank": 522,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.418605,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.4651,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.08,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.987,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0184,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9953,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 13,
      "Pitches": 58,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_DET@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_LAA@PIT

away

Ryan Johnson

True

5.0

6.0

-6

6/4

3/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.474654377880185,
      "WHIP": 1.4239631336405532,
      "IP": 72.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.81,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6031,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0513,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9549,
      "walk_factor": 1.044,
      "homer_factor": 1.1014,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.5,
      "bb_percent": 11.4,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.356,
      "barrel_percent": 10.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 756,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 423.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 84.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7089,
            "WHIP": 1.1392,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18987,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53165,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.56962,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 833.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 83.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70833,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20833
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 72.1,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 316.0,
            "Pitches": 1263.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.5882,
            "R": 2.8824,
            "H": 3.9412,
            "BB": 2.1176,
            "SO": 3.0588,
            "HR": 0.9412,
            "BF": 18.5882,
            "Pitches": 74.2941
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4747,
            "WHIP": 1.424,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60829,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92627,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4977,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71889,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2212
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.009,
        "predicted_H": 3.783,
        "predicted_BB": 2.583,
        "predicted_SO": 3.514,
        "predicted_HR": 0.869,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6731,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2931
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.009,
          "final": 3.7891,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.783,
          "final": 4.7719,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.583,
          "final": 2.769,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.514,
          "final": 2.8387,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.869,
          "final": 0.4814,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6731,
          "final": 3.6731,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2931,
          "final": 1.2931,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.375,
        "K9": 6.375,
        "HR9": 1.875,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0172753005024795,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.3786,
        "runs_scored": 571.0,
        "runs_allowed": 651.0,
        "run_differential": -80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5714,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0786,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.65,
        "offense_index": 0.9104,
        "defense_index": 0.9635,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 1,
          "losses": 9,
          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3133
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4894,
        "runs_scored": 691.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2057,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9007,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.695,
        "offense_index": 1.0939,
        "defense_index": 0.9542,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0512
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3645,
        "offense_edge": -0.0896,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0939,
        "defense_strength": -0.0365,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0458,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9806,
        "run_prevention": 1.0369,
        "strikeout": 0.9816
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696270",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696270",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 271.0,
            "k_percent": 16.5,
            "bb_percent": 11.4,
            "woba": 0.343,
            "xwoba": 0.356,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0069,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9004,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.718,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5821,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": -0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1565
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696270",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.07415991966134,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.636552773629,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.07415991966134,
                "release_spin_rate": 2270.636552773629,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0742,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.6366,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1565,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1176,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6031,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0513,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9549,
          "walk_factor": 1.044,
          "homer_factor": 1.1014,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696270",
            "espn_id": 5007859,
            "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 756,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 756,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 422,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 141,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 154,
              "era_value": 5.4746,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 237,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 79,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 72.1,
              "ip_rank": 170,
              "h_value": 67.0,
              "h_rank": 162,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 125,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 77,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 109,
              "k_value": 52.0,
              "k_rank": 266,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.470046,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42,
              "whip_value": 1.4239,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.45,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0513,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0513,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.044,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1014,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9549,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_LAA@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_LAA@PIT

home

Jared Jones

True

5.0

6.0

-5

7/3

1/1

5/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.830275229357798,
      "WHIP": 1.2798165137614679,
      "IP": 72.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.542,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2104,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9821,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0594,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 1.0199,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 210,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 410.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.4032,
            "WHIP": 1.9355,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.82258,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35484,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58065,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24194
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 202.0,
            "Pitches": 794.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 79.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3427,
            "WHIP": 1.1958,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48252,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37762,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21678,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14685
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 72.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 312.0,
            "Pitches": 1221.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4375,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.125,
            "BB": 1.6875,
            "SO": 5.1875,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 76.3125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8303,
            "WHIP": 1.2798,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5367,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90826,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37156,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1422,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16514
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.662,
        "predicted_H": 4.587,
        "predicted_BB": 1.938,
        "predicted_SO": 4.954,
        "predicted_HR": 0.793,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4964,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4971
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "model_weight": 0.4506,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.662,
          "final": 3.7155,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.587,
          "final": 5.6743,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.938,
          "final": 1.5153,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.9747,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.793,
          "final": 0.4357,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4964,
          "final": 5.4964,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4971,
          "final": 1.4971,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.3426573426573425,
        "WHIP": 1.1958041958041956,
        "K9": 10.95104895104895,
        "HR9": 1.3216783216783214,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9950943564465357,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.6667,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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        "games": 141,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4894,
        "runs_scored": 691.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2057,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9007,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.695,
        "offense_index": 1.0939,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5714,
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        },
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "683003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 268.0,
            "k_percent": 26.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5369,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4059,
            "whiff_percent": 30.9,
            "swing_percent": 48.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0409,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6121,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2128
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.66750722649874,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.3321423171064,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.66750722649874,
                "release_spin_rate": 2505.3321423171064,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.6675,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.3321,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2128,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.5198,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2104,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9821,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0594,
          "walk_factor": 0.99,
          "homer_factor": 1.0199,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683003",
            "espn_id": 4918156,
            "player_name": "Jared Jones",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 210,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 210,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 436,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 124,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 136,
              "era_value": 4.8302,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 303,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 72.2,
              "ip_rank": 169,
              "h_value": 66.0,
              "h_rank": 166,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 147,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 126,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 187,
              "k_value": 83.0,
              "k_rank": 138,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.279817,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.2798,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.77,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9821,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9821,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0199,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0594,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_LAA@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_MIL@CIN

away

Shane Drohan

True

5.1

4.0

-4

3/5

4/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7522658610271904,
      "WHIP": 1.29607250755287,
      "IP": 110.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.229,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2282,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9806,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0211,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 0.9985,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 169,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675660",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 400.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8358,
            "WHIP": 1.791,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53731,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20896,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58209,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9403,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13433
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 836.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 83.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.443,
            "WHIP": 1.3671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49367,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00633,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36076,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96835,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09494
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 110.1,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 106.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 466.0,
            "Pitches": 1761.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.7037,
            "R": 1.8889,
            "H": 3.9259,
            "BB": 1.3704,
            "SO": 4.0741,
            "HR": 0.3704,
            "BF": 17.2593,
            "Pitches": 65.2222
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7523,
            "WHIP": 1.2961,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41692,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96073,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33535,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99698,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09063
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.354,
        "predicted_H": 5.06,
        "predicted_BB": 2.091,
        "predicted_SO": 4.529,
        "predicted_HR": 0.554,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4797,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5122
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.354,
          "final": 1.7907,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.06,
          "final": 4.2031,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.091,
          "final": 2.8851,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.529,
          "final": 5.1409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.554,
          "final": 0.3235,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4797,
          "final": 4.4797,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5122,
          "final": 1.5122,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.443037974683545,
        "WHIP": 1.3670886075949367,
        "K9": 8.715189873417723,
        "HR9": 0.8544303797468354,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0106692878442518,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675660",
      "player_name": "Shane Drohan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.617,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 534.0,
        "run_differential": 171.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7872,
        "offense_index": 1.1141,
        "defense_index": 1.185,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2831
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4786,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": -108.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7714,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.15,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9214,
        "offense_index": 0.9247,
        "defense_index": 0.9119,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1127
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3958,
        "offense_edge": 0.1141,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0753,
        "defense_strength": 0.185,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0881,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0244,
        "run_prevention": 0.9497,
        "strikeout": 1.0179
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675660",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675660",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 417.0,
            "k_percent": 23.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.854,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7029,
            "whiff_percent": 27.2,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1734,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2743,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0326
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675660",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.45103485149461,
              "release_spin_rate": 2555.806723547709,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.45103485149461,
                "release_spin_rate": 2555.806723547709,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.451,
              "release_spin_rate": 2555.8067,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0326,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2332,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2282,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9806,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0211,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.9985,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "675660",
            "espn_id": 4315203,
            "player_name": "Shane Drohan",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 169,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 169,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 253,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 124,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 109,
              "era_value": 3.7522,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 79,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 130,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 134,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 225,
              "ip_value": 110.1,
              "ip_rank": 103,
              "h_value": 106.0,
              "h_rank": 102,
              "er_value": 46.0,
              "er_rank": 116,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 151,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 96,
              "k_value": 110.0,
              "k_rank": 80,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.97281,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.296,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.06,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9806,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9806,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0211,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_MIL@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_MIL@CIN

home

Rhett Lowder

True

5.0

4.0

-3

7/6

1/4

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.142857142857143,
      "WHIP": 1.4553571428571428,
      "IP": 112.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5401,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0459,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9394,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 1.0718,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.345,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 18.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 212,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 476.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3448,
            "WHIP": 1.2759,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48276,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 756.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 75.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2446,
            "WHIP": 1.3165,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58273,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10072,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21583,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69065,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17266
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 112.0,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 88.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 499.0,
            "Pitches": 1890.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 2.75,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.7917,
            "SO": 3.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.7917,
            "Pitches": 78.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1429,
            "WHIP": 1.4554,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38393,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.725,
        "predicted_H": 5.472,
        "predicted_BB": 1.376,
        "predicted_SO": 3.726,
        "predicted_HR": 0.906,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.759,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3288
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.725,
          "final": 3.687,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.472,
          "final": 6.1181,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.376,
          "final": 1.217,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.726,
          "final": 4.2647,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.906,
          "final": 0.5229,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.759,
          "final": 4.759,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3288,
          "final": 1.3288,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 32,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.244604316546762,
        "WHIP": 1.316546762589928,
        "K9": 6.215827338129496,
        "HR9": 1.553956834532374,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0995819551787385,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4786,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": -108.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7714,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.15,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9214,
        "offense_index": 0.9247,
        "defense_index": 0.9119,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1127
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.617,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 534.0,
        "run_differential": 171.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7872,
        "offense_index": 1.1141,
        "defense_index": 1.185,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2831
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3958,
        "offense_edge": -0.0753,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1141,
        "defense_strength": -0.0881,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.185,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.977,
        "run_prevention": 1.0469,
        "strikeout": 0.979
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695076",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695076",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 441.0,
            "k_percent": 17.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.339,
            "xwoba": 0.345,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0889,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2082,
            "whiff_percent": 18.9,
            "swing_percent": 44.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6677,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5614,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0381
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695076",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.18784850252824,
              "release_spin_rate": 2345.0409152257157,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.18784850252824,
                "release_spin_rate": 2345.0409152257157,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1878,
              "release_spin_rate": 2345.0409,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0381,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2721,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5401,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0459,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9394,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 1.0718,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695076",
            "espn_id": 4758873,
            "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 212,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 212,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 323,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 90,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 5.1428,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 101,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 46,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 112.0,
              "ip_rank": 98,
              "h_value": 120.0,
              "h_rank": 69,
              "er_value": 64.0,
              "er_rank": 46,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 77,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 64,
              "k_value": 88.0,
              "k_rank": 124,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0714283,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.4553,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.75,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0459,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0459,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0718,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9394,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_MIL@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_MIN@CHW

away

Zebby Matthews

True

6.0

5.0

-3

4/4

1/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.580357142857143,
      "WHIP": 1.2589285714285714,
      "IP": 112.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.895,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 8.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.306,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.026,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9714,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 1.0974,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.326,
      "barrel_percent": 10.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 140,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9032,
            "WHIP": 1.129,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32258,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93548,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 936.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.012,
            "WHIP": 1.3832,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55689,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02395,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35928,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84431,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14371
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 112.0,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 93.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 467.0,
            "Pitches": 1778.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2632,
            "H": 5.7368,
            "BB": 1.6842,
            "SO": 4.8947,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.5789,
            "Pitches": 93.5789
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5804,
            "WHIP": 1.2589,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50893,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97321,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83036,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16964
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.731,
        "predicted_H": 5.866,
        "predicted_BB": 1.754,
        "predicted_SO": 5.042,
        "predicted_HR": 0.793,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0793,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2644
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.731,
          "final": 3.2868,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.866,
          "final": 5.0487,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.793,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0793,
          "final": 4.0793,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2644,
          "final": 1.2644,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
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        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0750784442150545,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4786,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 696.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2714,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9714,
        "offense_index": 1.051,
        "defense_index": 0.8996,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0866
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5214,
        "runs_scored": 662.0,
        "runs_allowed": 623.0,
        "run_differential": 39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2786,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7286,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.45,
        "offense_index": 1.0573,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0525
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1391,
        "offense_edge": 0.051,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0573,
        "defense_strength": -0.1004,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.005,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9891,
        "run_prevention": 1.0262,
        "strikeout": 0.9912
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805673",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805673",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 409.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.327,
            "xwoba": 0.326,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6955,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6991,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4757,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1636,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0009
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805673",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.8834097777443,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.73417209907,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.8834097777443,
                "release_spin_rate": 2245.73417209907,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8834,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.7342,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0009,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0061,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.306,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.026,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9714,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 1.0974,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "805673",
            "espn_id": 4791597,
            "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 140,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 140,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 394,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 100,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 54,
              "era_value": 4.5803,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 46,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 112.0,
              "ip_rank": 98,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 91,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 64,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 39,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 134,
              "k_value": 93.0,
              "k_rank": 108,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.473214,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.2589,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.27,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0974,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9714,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_MIN@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_MIN@CHW

home

Erick Fedde

True

4.2

5.0

-5

3/3

5/2

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.15945945945946,
      "WHIP": 1.3702702702702703,
      "IP": 123.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3839,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0326,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9291,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 1.0417,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.334,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 18.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 118,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607200",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 72.0,
            "Pitches": 288.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 14.4,
            "Pitches": 57.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0566,
            "WHIP": 1.1887,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33962,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79245,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39623,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73585,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0566
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 142.0,
            "Pitches": 566.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 14.2,
            "Pitches": 56.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1942,
            "WHIP": 1.2524,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96117,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29126,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81553,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20388
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 123.1,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 88.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 532.0,
            "Pitches": 2096.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.9655,
            "R": 2.2414,
            "H": 4.2759,
            "BB": 1.5517,
            "SO": 3.0345,
            "HR": 0.7586,
            "BF": 18.3448,
            "Pitches": 72.2759
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1595,
            "WHIP": 1.3703,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46216,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00541,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71351,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17838
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.613,
        "predicted_H": 3.466,
        "predicted_BB": 1.362,
        "predicted_SO": 3.007,
        "predicted_HR": 0.515,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7921,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2613
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.613,
          "final": 3.009,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.466,
          "final": 3.2739,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.362,
          "final": 2.8614,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.007,
          "final": 4.6527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.515,
          "final": 0.7149,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7921,
          "final": 3.7921,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2613,
          "final": 1.2613,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 34.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 28,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.194174757281554,
        "WHIP": 1.2524271844660195,
        "K9": 7.33980582524272,
        "HR9": 1.83495145631068,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9798056403083051,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607200",
      "player_name": "Erick Fedde",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5214,
        "runs_scored": 662.0,
        "runs_allowed": 623.0,
        "run_differential": 39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2786,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7286,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.45,
        "offense_index": 1.0573,
        "defense_index": 1.005,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0525
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4786,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 696.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2714,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9714,
        "offense_index": 1.051,
        "defense_index": 0.8996,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0866
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1391,
        "offense_edge": 0.0573,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.051,
        "defense_strength": 0.005,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1004,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0037,
        "run_prevention": 1.0007,
        "strikeout": 1.0001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607200",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607200",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 495.0,
            "k_percent": 16.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.334,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3852,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9498,
            "whiff_percent": 18.2,
            "swing_percent": 42.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3803,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6621,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -1.0,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.092
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607200",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 38,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 38,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.22606485710746,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.4724631960416,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 38,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.22606485710746,
                "release_spin_rate": 2234.4724631960416,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2261,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.4725,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.092,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6568,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3839,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0326,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9291,
          "walk_factor": 0.986,
          "homer_factor": 1.0417,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607200",
            "espn_id": 33793,
            "player_name": "Erick Fedde",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 118,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 118,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 217,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 149,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 4.1594,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 79,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 46,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 123.1,
              "ip_rank": 86,
              "h_value": 124.0,
              "h_rank": 64,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 64,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 21,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 53,
              "k_value": 88.0,
              "k_rank": 124,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.4216213,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38,
              "whip_value": 1.3702,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.47,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0326,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0326,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0417,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9291,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_MIN@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_NYY@SD

away

Max Fried

True

5.2

2/4

2/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8,
      "WHIP": 1.0,
      "IP": 90.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.625,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8477,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9279,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.008,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 0.8065,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.246,
      "barrel_percent": 1.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 30,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 90.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.8,
      "season_WHIP": 1.0,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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            "hard_hit_edge": 1.0,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0795
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608331",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.44857385808628,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.08543068494,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.44857385808628,
                "release_spin_rate": 2247.08543068494,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4486,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.0854,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0795,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5678,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8477,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9279,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.008,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 0.8065,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608331",
            "espn_id": 32685,
            "player_name": "Max Fried",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 30,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 30,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 436,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 124,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 76,
              "era_value": 2.8,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 180,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 170,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 90.0,
              "ip_rank": 138,
              "h_value": 62.0,
              "h_rank": 180,
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": 198,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 431,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 175,
              "k_value": 83.0,
              "k_rank": 138,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.3,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.0,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.08,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9279,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9279,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.82,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_NYY@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_NYY@SD

home

Walker Buehler

True

5.1

5.0

-1

-3

5/3

0/2

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.65989847715736,
      "WHIP": 1.3553299492385786,
      "IP": 131.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.864,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1199,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0102,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9577,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.0218,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.326,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 19.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 220,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 417.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81481,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18519,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7037,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 836.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 83.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7432,
            "WHIP": 1.3176,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52703,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93243,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38514,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70946,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.1,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 559.0,
            "Pitches": 2218.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5185,
            "R": 2.5556,
            "H": 4.7778,
            "BB": 1.8148,
            "SO": 4.1111,
            "HR": 0.6296,
            "BF": 20.7037,
            "Pitches": 82.1481
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6599,
            "WHIP": 1.3553,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51777,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98223,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3731,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12944
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.243,
        "predicted_H": 4.672,
        "predicted_BB": 1.579,
        "predicted_SO": 3.966,
        "predicted_HR": 0.698,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8978,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2072
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.243,
          "final": 2.9739,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.672,
          "final": 4.8084,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.579,
          "final": 0.9221,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.966,
          "final": 3.9801,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.698,
          "final": 1.2396,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8978,
          "final": 3.8978,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2072,
          "final": 1.2072,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 8,
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        "WHIP": 1.3175675675675678,
        "K9": 6.385135135135136,
        "HR9": 1.4594594594594597,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0432043545565337,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5214,
        "runs_scored": 594.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0714,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2429,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1714,
        "offense_index": 0.946,
        "defense_index": 1.0752,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 140,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5714,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 521.0,
        "run_differential": 115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8214,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5429,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7214,
        "offense_index": 1.0129,
        "defense_index": 1.2052,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1964
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2395,
        "offense_edge": -0.054,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0129,
        "defense_strength": 0.0752,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2052,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9922,
        "run_prevention": 1.0065,
        "strikeout": 0.9918
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 514.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.326,
            "xwoba": 0.313,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.905,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0382,
            "whiff_percent": 19.8,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1032,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3786,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7714,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0098
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621111",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.69389206083017,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.5990522722864,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.69389206083017,
                "release_spin_rate": 2201.5990522722864,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6939,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.5991,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0098,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0697,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1199,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0102,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9577,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0218,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_id": 39251,
            "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 220,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 220,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 253,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 21,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 4.6598,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 60,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 131.1,
              "ip_rank": 68,
              "h_value": 129.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 68.0,
              "er_rank": 30,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 61,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 37,
              "k_value": 111.0,
              "k_rank": 78,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6065993,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.3553,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.69,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0102,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0102,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0218,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9577,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_NYY@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_OAK@SEA

away

Kade Morris

True

3.0

2.2

-1

9/5

1/1

4/0

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 9.818181818181818,
      "WHIP": 2.1136363636363638,
      "IP": 14.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.14,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0119,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9643,
      "walk_factor": 0.9892,
      "homer_factor": 1.0067,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 13.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.448,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
      "whiff_percent": 19.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 737,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.947,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3708,
        "prior_weight": 0.6292
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695034",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 75.0,
            "Pitches": 285.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 57.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.8182,
            "WHIP": 2.1136,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "H_per_IP": 1.70455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 75.0,
            "Pitches": 285.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 57.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.8182,
            "WHIP": 2.1136,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "H_per_IP": 1.70455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 75.0,
            "Pitches": 285.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 57.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.8182,
            "WHIP": 2.1136,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "H_per_IP": 1.70455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.053,
        "predicted_H": 5.294,
        "predicted_BB": 1.64,
        "predicted_SO": 3.59,
        "predicted_HR": 0.822,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.4525,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6283
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6158,
      "form_weight": 0.3842,
      "form_reliability": 0.3708,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.947,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3708,
        "prior_weight": 0.6292
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.053,
          "final": 4.252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.294,
          "final": 7.5763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.64,
          "final": 1.2459,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.59,
          "final": 3.8425,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.822,
          "final": 0.9316,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.4525,
          "final": 6.4525,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6283,
          "final": 1.6283,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 14.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 25,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 9.818181818181818,
        "WHIP": 2.1136363636363638,
        "K9": 6.136363636363637,
        "HR9": 2.4545454545454546,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.3038756079126688,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.947,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3708,
          "prior_weight": 0.6292
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695034",
      "player_name": "Kade Morris",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -2.0,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3901,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 809.0,
        "run_differential": -191.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3546,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.383,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7376,
        "offense_index": 0.9773,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2945
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4681,
        "runs_scored": 559.0,
        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": -68.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4823,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9645,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4468,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1213
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1732,
        "offense_edge": -0.0227,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.116,
        "defense_strength": -0.2183,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9912,
        "run_prevention": 1.0119,
        "strikeout": 1.0041
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695034",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695034",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.4804,
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            "whiff_percent": 19.9,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5627,
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            "regression_edge": 2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0135
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695034",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.10917905623789,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.7330137183076,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 70,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.10917905623789,
                "release_spin_rate": 2195.7330137183076,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1092,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.733,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0135,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0964,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.14,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0119,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9643,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695034",
            "espn_id": 4865840,
            "player_name": "Kade Morris",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 737,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 737,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 614,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 294,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 9.8181,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 524,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 422,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
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              "ip_rank": 557,
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              "h_rank": 449,
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              "er_rank": 383,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 363,
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              "bb_rank": 571,
              "k_value": 10.0,
              "k_rank": 579,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.1363635,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 2.1136,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.4,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 11.0,
            "factor": 1.0054,
            "adjusted": 11
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 11.0,
            "factor": 1.0054,
            "adjusted": 11
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.003,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9839,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 69,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_OAK@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_OAK@SEA

home

Logan Gilbert

True

5.2

4.2

-3

4/8

5/2

6/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.938,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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    "savant": {
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      "k_percent": 26.0,
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      "woba": 0.286,
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      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 29.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 26,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "669302",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 5.4,
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            "Pitches": 95.8
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83133,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18072
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "H": 47.0,
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            "SO": 59.0,
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            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 950.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
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            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
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            "H_per_IP": 0.77901,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.9779,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1326
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 61.0,
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            "SO": 166.0,
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            "Pitches": 2546.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
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            "R": 2.2593,
            "H": 4.6667,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.13721
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.28,
        "predicted_H": 4.832,
        "predicted_BB": 2.054,
        "predicted_SO": 5.708,
        "predicted_HR": 0.895,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5244,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1829
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "final": 1.7475,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.832,
          "final": 4.4859,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 3.2795,
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.5244,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.1829,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "HR9": 1.1933701657458564,
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        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8895646651433636,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4681,
        "runs_scored": 559.0,
        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": -68.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4823,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9645,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4468,
        "offense_index": 0.884,
        "defense_index": 1.0086,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1213
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3901,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 809.0,
        "run_differential": -191.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3546,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.383,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7376,
        "offense_index": 0.9773,
        "defense_index": 0.7817,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2945
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1732,
        "offense_edge": -0.116,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0227,
        "defense_strength": 0.0086,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2183,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0081,
        "run_prevention": 0.9868,
        "strikeout": 1.007
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 590.0,
            "k_percent": 26.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9733,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3832,
            "whiff_percent": 29.2,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1255,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6086,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0177
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.55212588420072,
              "release_spin_rate": 1933.4323936506946,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.55212588420072,
                "release_spin_rate": 1933.4323936506946,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5521,
              "release_spin_rate": 1933.4324,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0177,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1264,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2014,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9829,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0463,
          "walk_factor": 0.942,
          "homer_factor": 1.0508,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_id": 41221,
            "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 26,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 26,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 253,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 21,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 32,
              "era_value": 3.4241,
              "era_rank": 22.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 20,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 46,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 160.1,
              "ip_rank": 14,
              "h_value": 126.0,
              "h_rank": 60,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 56,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 21,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 77,
              "k_value": 166.0,
              "k_rank": 17,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.318087,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.0353,
              "whip_rank": 8.0,
              "war_value": 3.26,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0508,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0463,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_OAK@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_SF@NYM

away

Matt Wilkinson

True

4.0

3.0

-3

6/5

0/2

3/2

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.628571428571429,
      "WHIP": 1.1142857142857143,
      "IP": 11.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.889,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1114,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0095,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9493,
      "walk_factor": 0.9559,
      "homer_factor": 1.0089,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 12.8,
      "bb_percent": 4.3,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 48.7,
      "whiff_percent": 14.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 435,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 47.0,
            "Pitches": 181.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.6667,
            "BB": 0.6667,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.3333,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08571
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51429,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.1,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.222,
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          "form": 4.243,
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        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 3.441,
          "final": 3.1702,
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.545,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5289,
          "final": 4.5289,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2568,
          "final": 1.2568,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 6,
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        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 4.628571428571429,
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        "K9": 4.628571428571429,
        "HR9": 0.7714285714285715,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.009615496020656,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.375,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4113,
        "runs_scored": 586.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.156,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6738,
        "offense_index": 0.9276,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": 2.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 140,
        "wins": 63,
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        "win_pct": 0.45,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1214,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4786,
        "offense_index": 0.9199,
        "defense_index": 1.0004,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -11.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1213
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0176,
        "offense_edge": -0.0724,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0801,
        "defense_strength": -0.0414,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0004,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0013,
        "run_prevention": 0.9922,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683363",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 7.0,
            "k_percent": 12.8,
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            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 48.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1094,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4318,
            "whiff_percent": 14.6,
            "swing_percent": 45.3
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0346,
            "command_and_miss": -0.87,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.5571,
            "whiff_edge": -1.5143,
            "bb_edge": 1.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1167
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683363",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 25,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 25,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.78399999999999,
              "release_spin_rate": 2033.08,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 25,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.78399999999999,
                "release_spin_rate": 2033.08,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.784,
              "release_spin_rate": 2033.08,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1167,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.8336,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1114,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0095,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9493,
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          "homer_factor": 1.0089,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683363",
            "espn_id": 5339226,
            "player_name": "Matt Wilkinson",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 435,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 435,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
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              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 524,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "h_value": 11.0,
              "h_rank": 611,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 617,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 603,
              "bb_value": 2.0,
              "bb_rank": 706,
              "k_value": 6.0,
              "k_rank": 643,
              "k_per_9_value": 4.6285715,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.1142,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.05,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9802,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9772,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_SF@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_SF@NYM

home

Nolan McLean

True

6.0

5/6

3/4

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.06423982869379,
      "WHIP": 1.1241970021413277,
      "IP": 155.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.765,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2981,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9747,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 1.006,
      "homer_factor": 0.956,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.282,
      "xwoba": 0.293,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 44,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 1.1333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 949.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 94.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9392,
            "WHIP": 1.1271,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21547,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71271,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41436,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9779,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08287
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 61.0,
            "SO": 172.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 644.0,
            "Pitches": 2544.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.963,
            "R": 2.4074,
            "H": 4.2222,
            "BB": 2.2593,
            "SO": 6.3704,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 23.8519,
            "Pitches": 94.2222
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0642,
            "WHIP": 1.1242,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34047,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73233,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39186,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10493,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09636
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.707,
        "predicted_H": 4.242,
        "predicted_BB": 2.668,
        "predicted_SO": 5.501,
        "predicted_HR": 0.528,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5853,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1626
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.707,
          "final": 1.8289,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.242,
          "final": 4.5573,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.668,
          "final": 2.8061,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.501,
          "final": 6.5406,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.528,
          "final": 1.1403,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5853,
          "final": 2.5853,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1626,
          "final": 1.1626,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 59,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 1.9392265193370166,
        "WHIP": 1.12707182320442,
        "K9": 8.801104972375692,
        "HR9": 0.7458563535911603,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7229900795080045,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
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          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 140,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.45,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1214,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4786,
        "offense_index": 0.9199,
        "defense_index": 1.0004,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1213
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4113,
        "runs_scored": 586.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.156,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6738,
        "offense_index": 0.9276,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1389
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0176,
        "offense_edge": -0.0801,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0724,
        "defense_strength": 0.0004,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0414,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0036,
        "run_prevention": 0.9875,
        "strikeout": 1.0063
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690997",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690997",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 589.0,
            "k_percent": 26.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.282,
            "xwoba": 0.293,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.466,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5873,
            "whiff_percent": 24.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4614,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2536,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0656
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690997",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.0400530003611,
              "release_spin_rate": 2502.730639559779,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.0400530003611,
                "release_spin_rate": 2502.730639559779,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0401,
              "release_spin_rate": 2502.7306,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0656,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4688,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2981,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9747,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 1.006,
          "homer_factor": 0.956,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690997",
            "espn_id": 4433874,
            "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 44,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 44,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 253,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 21,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 3.0642,
              "era_rank": 14.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 26,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 46,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 155.2,
              "ip_rank": 19,
              "h_value": 114.0,
              "h_rank": 82,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 82,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 83,
              "bb_value": 61.0,
              "bb_rank": 13,
              "k_value": 172.0,
              "k_rank": 12,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.944325,
              "k_per_9_rank": 17,
              "whip_value": 1.1241,
              "whip_rank": 18.0,
              "war_value": 2.76,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9747,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9747,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_SF@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_STL@COL

away

Andre Pallante

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-1

3/2

4/4

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.573529411764706,
      "WHIP": 1.2426470588235294,
      "IP": 136.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0628,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 0.9422,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 59,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0543,
            "WHIP": 1.1739,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22826,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84783,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3371,
            "WHIP": 1.2978,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02809,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26966,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58989,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.01685
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 136.0,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 97.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 564.0,
            "Pitches": 2203.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 1.7083,
            "SO": 4.0417,
            "HR": 0.4167,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 91.7917
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5735,
            "WHIP": 1.2426,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39706,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30147,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71324,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07353
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.043,
        "predicted_H": 5.569,
        "predicted_BB": 1.863,
        "predicted_SO": 4.267,
        "predicted_HR": 0.251,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0936,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2502
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.043,
          "final": 2.0248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.569,
          "final": 4.4827,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.863,
          "final": 2.7666,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.267,
          "final": 4.5769,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.251,
          "final": 0.1449,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0936,
          "final": 3.0936,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2502,
          "final": 1.2502,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 3.3370786516853936,
        "WHIP": 1.2977528089887642,
        "K9": 5.308988764044944,
        "HR9": 0.15168539325842698,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8845154690418056,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0638,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4894,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5532,
        "offense_index": 1.0026,
        "defense_index": 0.9834,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0458
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3857,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 795.0,
        "run_differential": -140.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6786,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6786,
        "offense_index": 1.0449,
        "defense_index": 0.7885,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.255
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2092,
        "offense_edge": 0.0026,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0449,
        "defense_strength": -0.0166,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2115,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9984,
        "strikeout": 1.0027
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669467",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669467",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 536.0,
            "k_percent": 17.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.8498,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6081,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3322,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3971,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0008
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669467",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.88282303704989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.4042255985237,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.88282303704989,
                "release_spin_rate": 2284.4042255985237,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8828,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.4042,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0008,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0059,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0628,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 0.9422,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669467",
            "espn_id": 4109034,
            "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 59,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 59,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 323,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 65,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 63,
              "era_value": 3.5735,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 15,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 136.0,
              "ip_rank": 58,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 55,
              "er_value": 54.0,
              "er_rank": 80,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 151,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 72,
              "k_value": 97.0,
              "k_rank": 101,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.419118,
              "k_per_9_rank": 47,
              "whip_value": 1.2426,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.28,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9422,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9514,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_STL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_STL@COL

home

Ryan Feltner

True

4.2

5.0

-2

9/7

1/3

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.842622950819671,
      "WHIP": 1.544262295081967,
      "IP": 101.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.883,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5013,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0426,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 1.0912,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.371,
      "xwoba": 0.353,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 260,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663372",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 441.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.12,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 861.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 86.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.3973,
            "WHIP": 1.8699,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.82192,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35616,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5137,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84247,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22603
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 101.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 112.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 455.0,
            "Pitches": 1685.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1429,
            "R": 3.4286,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 2.1429,
            "SO": 3.619,
            "HR": 0.9048,
            "BF": 21.6667,
            "Pitches": 80.2381
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8426,
            "WHIP": 1.5443,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64918,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10164,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44262,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74754,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18689
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.443,
        "predicted_H": 5.997,
        "predicted_BB": 2.563,
        "predicted_SO": 4.13,
        "predicted_HR": 0.766,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.1188,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6904
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.443,
          "final": 4.5457,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.997,
          "final": 7.292,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.563,
          "final": 1.889,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.13,
          "final": 3.6427,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.766,
          "final": 1.7294,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.1188,
          "final": 6.1188,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6904,
          "final": 1.6904,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
        "ER": 40,
        "H": 66,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 7.397260273972603,
        "WHIP": 1.8698630136986303,
        "K9": 7.582191780821918,
        "HR9": 2.0342465753424657,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.3555886566668633,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663372",
      "player_name": "Ryan Feltner",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3857,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 795.0,
        "run_differential": -140.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6786,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6786,
        "offense_index": 1.0449,
        "defense_index": 0.7885,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.255
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0638,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4894,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5532,
        "offense_index": 1.0026,
        "defense_index": 0.9834,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0458
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2092,
        "offense_edge": 0.0449,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0026,
        "defense_strength": -0.2115,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0166,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9852,
        "run_prevention": 1.032,
        "strikeout": 0.9935
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 408.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.371,
            "xwoba": 0.353,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.5104,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5483,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7821,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4343,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1857,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0233
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.45121101288434,
              "release_spin_rate": 2332.457513921126,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.45121101288434,
                "release_spin_rate": 2332.457513921126,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4512,
              "release_spin_rate": 2332.4575,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0233,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1668,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5013,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0426,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 1.0912,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663372",
            "espn_id": 4019484,
            "player_name": "Ryan Feltner",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 260,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 260,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 364,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 93,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 109,
              "era_value": 5.8426,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 137,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 26,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 101.2,
              "ip_rank": 116,
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": 85,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 37,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 39,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 53,
              "k_value": 76.0,
              "k_rank": 156,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.727869,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.554,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.46,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0426,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0426,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9629,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_STL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_TB@TEX

away

Nick Martinez

True

6.0

6.1

2/5

6/2

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9869848156182215,
      "WHIP": 1.0997830802603037,
      "IP": 153.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.91,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1851,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0157,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9126,
      "walk_factor": 0.888,
      "homer_factor": 0.9787,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.7,
      "bb_percent": 3.6,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
      "whiff_percent": 17.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 425.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.0879,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02198,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06593,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72527,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 823.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 82.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5085,
            "WHIP": 1.0169,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38983,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9322,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08475,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.55932,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15254
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 153.2,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 618.0,
            "Pitches": 2150.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9615,
            "R": 1.9615,
            "H": 5.6538,
            "BB": 0.8462,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.6923,
            "BF": 23.7692,
            "Pitches": 82.6923
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.987,
            "WHIP": 1.0998,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33189,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95662,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14317,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59219,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11714
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.472,
        "predicted_H": 5.859,
        "predicted_BB": 0.802,
        "predicted_SO": 4.131,
        "predicted_HR": 0.752,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7075,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1101
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.472,
          "final": 1.8565,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.859,
          "final": 4.2454,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 0.802,
          "final": 2.9755,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.131,
          "final": 4.0762,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.752,
          "final": 0.8557,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7075,
          "final": 3.7075,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1101,
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    },
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5929,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 583.0,
        "run_differential": 45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3214,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4857,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1643,
        "offense_index": 1.003,
        "defense_index": 1.0739,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1535
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 578.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2979,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0993,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3972,
        "offense_index": 0.9166,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0396
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1931,
        "offense_edge": 0.003,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0834,
        "defense_strength": 0.0739,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.017,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0133,
        "run_prevention": 0.9696,
        "strikeout": 1.0125
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607259",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 572.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.319,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.7111,
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            "whiff_percent": 17.1,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0885,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5879,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1571,
            "bb_edge": 1.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.165
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607259",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.92210877528385,
              "release_spin_rate": 2192.935261117394,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.92210877528385,
                "release_spin_rate": 2192.935261117394,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9221,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.165,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1784,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1851,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0157,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9126,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607259",
            "espn_id": 33372,
            "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 17,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 17,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 282,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 36,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 25,
              "era_value": 2.9869,
              "era_rank": 12.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 9,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 170,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 153.2,
              "ip_rank": 27,
              "h_value": 147.0,
              "h_rank": 17,
              "er_value": 51.0,
              "er_rank": 95,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 48,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 245,
              "k_value": 91.0,
              "k_rank": 113,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.329718,
              "k_per_9_rank": 113,
              "whip_value": 1.0997,
              "whip_rank": 14.0,
              "war_value": 3.58,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0157,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0157,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.888,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9787,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9126,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 6,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 118,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_TB@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_TB@TEX

home

Trevor Williams

True

4.2

1.0

-11

-1

4/0

1/0

6/2

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.9272727272727277,
      "WHIP": 1.4181818181818182,
      "IP": 18.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.167,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0602,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9949,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0177,
      "walk_factor": 0.9946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9945,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 28.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.344,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 320,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.684,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4242,
        "prior_weight": 0.5758
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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        },
        "last_10": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 9,
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      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
          "index": 3,
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2979,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3972,
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        "recent": {
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 140,
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        "runs_scored": 628.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3214,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0834,
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        "defense_strength": 0.017,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9927,
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        "strikeout": 0.994
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592866",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592866",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.31,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592866",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 41,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 41,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.28877951180472,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 41,
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                "release_speed": 85.28877951180472,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.2888,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0602,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Trevor Williams",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 320,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 320,
              "gp_value": 9.0,
              "gp_rank": 532,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 357,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.9272,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 524,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 570,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 265,
              "ip_value": 18.1,
              "ip_rank": 522,
              "h_value": 19.0,
              "h_rank": 508,
              "er_value": 8.0,
              "er_rank": 571,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 431,
              "bb_value": 7.0,
              "bb_rank": 543,
              "k_value": 23.0,
              "k_rank": 452,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.290909,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.4181,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9977,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9977,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_TB@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_TOR@KC

away

Jameson Taillon

True

4.2

2.0

-8

-3

4/2

0/0

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.678571428571429,
      "WHIP": 1.369047619047619,
      "IP": 84.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.941,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6322,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0537,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0023,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.1813,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.364,
      "xwoba": 0.363,
      "barrel_percent": 14.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 806,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592791",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 82.0,
            "Pitches": 320.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 16.4,
            "Pitches": 64.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.7885,
            "WHIP": 1.7885,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.86538,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.63462,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.34615
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 198.0,
            "Pitches": 764.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 1.5,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 76.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0076,
            "WHIP": 1.5802,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77863,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16794,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41221,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89313,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.34351
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 84.0,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 83.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 362.0,
            "Pitches": 1414.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1176,
            "R": 3.1765,
            "H": 4.8824,
            "BB": 1.8824,
            "SO": 4.4118,
            "HR": 1.5294,
            "BF": 21.2941,
            "Pitches": 83.1765
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6786,
            "WHIP": 1.369,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63095,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9881,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.30952
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.006,
        "predicted_H": 4.542,
        "predicted_BB": 1.979,
        "predicted_SO": 3.972,
        "predicted_HR": 1.225,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.4967,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5659
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.006,
          "final": 3.4494,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.542,
          "final": 4.3002,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.979,
          "final": 1.0963,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.972,
          "final": 3.5385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.225,
          "final": 0.6786,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.4967,
          "final": 6.4967,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5659,
          "final": 1.5659,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.2,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 15,
        "ERA": 7.00763358778626,
        "WHIP": 1.5801526717557253,
        "K9": 8.038167938931299,
        "HR9": 3.0916030534351147,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.3045128959223269,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592791",
      "player_name": "Jameson Taillon",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 566.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2908,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0142,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.305,
        "offense_index": 0.8976,
        "defense_index": 1.0388,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0037
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4468,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": -85.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6028,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2979,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9007,
        "offense_index": 0.961,
        "defense_index": 0.9125,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0844
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0807,
        "offense_edge": -0.1024,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.039,
        "defense_strength": 0.0388,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0875,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.006,
        "run_prevention": 0.9858,
        "strikeout": 1.0055
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592791",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592791",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 345.0,
            "k_percent": 20.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.364,
            "xwoba": 0.363,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 14.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2675,
            "whiff_percent": 26.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.116,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0229,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -1.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2006
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592791",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.28623617545512,
              "release_spin_rate": 2377.6652705289603,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.28623617545512,
                "release_spin_rate": 2377.6652705289603,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.2862,
              "release_spin_rate": 2377.6653,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2006,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.4327,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6322,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0537,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0023,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.1813,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592791",
            "espn_id": 31258,
            "player_name": "Jameson Taillon",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 806,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 806,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 422,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 117,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 121,
              "era_value": 5.6785,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 303,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 84.0,
              "ip_rank": 148,
              "h_value": 83.0,
              "h_rank": 135,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 82,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 8,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 134,
              "k_value": 75.0,
              "k_rank": 157,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.035714,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.369,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.75,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0537,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0537,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.1813,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0023,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_TOR@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_TOR@KC

home

Daniel Lynch IV

True

5.0

4/7

1/1

8/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.064864864864865,
      "WHIP": 1.0540540540540542,
      "IP": 61.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 51,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.133,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0022,
      "sample_weight": 0.844,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0002,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9826,
      "walk_factor": 0.973,
      "homer_factor": 0.9891,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 183,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 61.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.065,
      "season_WHIP": 1.054,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.39,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7125,
        "prior_weight": 0.2875
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 51,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 67.0,
            "Pitches": 248.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 13.4,
            "Pitches": 49.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3191,
            "WHIP": 1.4043,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70213,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95745,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44681,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70213,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19149
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 85.0,
            "Pitches": 302.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 1.9,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 8.5,
            "Pitches": 30.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8689,
            "WHIP": 1.2787,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54098,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93443,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34426,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59016,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14754
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 51,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 250.0,
            "Pitches": 923.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.4118,
            "R": 0.4902,
            "H": 0.902,
            "BB": 0.3725,
            "SO": 0.902,
            "HR": 0.098,
            "BF": 4.902,
            "Pitches": 18.098
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0649,
            "WHIP": 1.0541,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34054,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74595,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30811,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74595,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.808,
        "predicted_H": 3.036,
        "predicted_BB": 1.245,
        "predicted_SO": 2.454,
        "predicted_HR": 0.498,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9618,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3052
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4715,
      "form_weight": 0.5285,
      "form_reliability": 0.7125,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.39,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7125,
        "prior_weight": 0.2875
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.808,
          "final": 1.4271,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.036,
          "final": 3.4905,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.245,
          "final": 1.1295,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 2.454,
          "final": 5.0688,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.498,
          "final": 0.2632,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9618,
          "final": 4.9618,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3052,
          "final": 1.3052,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 20.1,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 19,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.868852459016393,
        "WHIP": 1.2786885245901638,
        "K9": 5.311475409836065,
        "HR9": 1.3278688524590163,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.037450354023646,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.39,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7125,
          "prior_weight": 0.2875
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4468,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": -85.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6028,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2979,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9007,
        "offense_index": 0.961,
        "defense_index": 0.9125,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0844
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4965,
        "runs_scored": 566.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2908,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0142,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.305,
        "offense_index": 0.8976,
        "defense_index": 1.0388,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0037
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0807,
        "offense_edge": -0.039,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1024,
        "defense_strength": -0.0875,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0388,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9982,
        "run_prevention": 0.9964,
        "strikeout": 1.0058
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 211.0,
            "k_percent": 18.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.268,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8057,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8898,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2746,
            "command_and_miss": -0.15,
            "regression_edge": -1.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0023
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 32,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 32,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.82679331429227,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.5103408384525,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 32,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.82679331429227,
                "release_spin_rate": 2099.5103408384525,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8268,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.5103,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0023,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0165,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0022,
          "sample_weight": 0.844,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0002,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9826,
          "walk_factor": 0.973,
          "homer_factor": 0.9891,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.041,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663738",
            "espn_id": 41227,
            "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 183,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 183,
              "gp_value": 51.0,
              "gp_rank": 86,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 216,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.0648,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 180,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 170,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 134,
              "hld_value": 13.0,
              "hld_rank": 47,
              "ip_value": 61.2,
              "ip_rank": 208,
              "h_value": 46.0,
              "h_rank": 253,
              "er_value": 21.0,
              "er_rank": 291,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 303,
              "bb_value": 19.0,
              "bb_rank": 301,
              "k_value": 46.0,
              "k_rank": 303,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.7135134,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39,
              "whip_value": 1.054,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.99,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0002,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0002,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9772,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9908,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9853,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_TOR@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_WAS@LAD

away

Jackson Kent

True

4.1

5.0

-1

5/4

4/4

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.586206896551724,
      "WHIP": 1.7068965517241381,
      "IP": 19.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2195,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0187,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9835,
      "walk_factor": 1.0702,
      "homer_factor": 1.0277,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.3,
      "bb_percent": 17.0,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.351,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 459,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 358.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 3.75,
            "SO": 4.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5862,
            "WHIP": 1.7069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05172
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 358.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 3.75,
            "SO": 4.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5862,
            "WHIP": 1.7069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05172
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 358.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 3.75,
            "SO": 4.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5862,
            "WHIP": 1.7069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05172
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.677,
        "predicted_H": 4.626,
        "predicted_BB": 2.673,
        "predicted_SO": 4.424,
        "predicted_HR": 0.505,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9655,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5043
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.677,
          "final": 3.4506,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.626,
          "final": 4.8447,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.673,
          "final": 3.449,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.424,
          "final": 4.1761,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.505,
          "final": 0.2097,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9655,
          "final": 4.9655,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5043,
          "final": 1.5043,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.1,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 17,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 5.586206896551723,
        "WHIP": 1.7068965517241377,
        "K9": 7.913793103448275,
        "HR9": 0.4655172413793103,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.093356802544124,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4718,
        "runs_scored": 735.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0986,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1761,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0775,
        "offense_index": 1.1541,
        "defense_index": 0.8833,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0231
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5929,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 540.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.05,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9071,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8571,
        "offense_index": 1.0941,
        "defense_index": 1.1628,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1727
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1496,
        "offense_edge": 0.1541,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0941,
        "defense_strength": -0.1167,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1628,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9868,
        "run_prevention": 1.0342,
        "strikeout": 0.988
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800600",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800600",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 41.0,
            "k_percent": 19.3,
            "bb_percent": 17.0,
            "woba": 0.335,
            "xwoba": 0.351,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 73.1939,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3104,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4333,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7471,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": -1.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0639
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800600",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.72623626373627,
              "release_spin_rate": 2092.4313186813188,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.72623626373627,
                "release_spin_rate": 2092.4313186813188,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7262,
              "release_spin_rate": 2092.4313,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0639,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4567,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2195,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0187,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9835,
          "walk_factor": 1.0702,
          "homer_factor": 1.0277,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "800600",
            "espn_id": 5007807,
            "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 459,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 459,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 654,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 231,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 5.5862,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 402,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 319,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 347,
              "ip_value": 19.1,
              "ip_rank": 509,
              "h_value": 18.0,
              "h_rank": 521,
              "er_value": 12.0,
              "er_rank": 466,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 603,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 373,
              "k_value": 17.0,
              "k_rank": 502,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.9137936,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.7068,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.03,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0084,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0084,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0316,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0125,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_WAS@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260904

20260904_WAS@LAD

home

Blake Snell

True

5.1

6.0

-2

2/5

1/2

10/7

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.423076923076923,
      "WHIP": 1.0769230769230769,
      "IP": 26.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6298,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9465,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0591,
      "walk_factor": 1.0162,
      "homer_factor": 0.8778,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.0,
      "bb_percent": 11.0,
      "woba": 0.227,
      "xwoba": 0.225,
      "barrel_percent": 1.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 10.0,
      "whiff_percent": 37.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 217,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "report_date": "20260904",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4231,
            "WHIP": 1.0769,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61538,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.38462,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.26923,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 5,
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      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605483",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605483",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7533,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "player_name": "Blake Snell",
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              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9759,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9759,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0073,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.945,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0266,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260904_WAS@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}