Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260903 · dates 20260903 · generated 2026-09-04T06:00:17.329781+00:00

5-4

Winner picks · 55.6%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

9/18

Starter ER within ±1

13/18

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260903	9	9	0	5	4	9	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	9	applied games: 9formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	9	available games: 9
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	9	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	9	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	9	configured window: 10last 10 games: 9observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	9	settled games: 9metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1474.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	7	53.6%	57.1%	-3.5%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	1	55.9%	100.0%	-44.1%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	1	63.7%	0.0%	63.7%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	9	2.0006	2.5017	2.7246	55.6%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	9	2.0556	2.5556	2.7778	44.4%	0.055	0.0532
enhanced_prediction	9	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	55.6%	0.3327	0.1643
embedded_savant_run_environment	9	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	55.6%	0.3327	0.1643
fundamental_edge_target_review	9	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	55.6%	0.3327	0.1643
capped_target	9	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	55.6%	0.3327	0.1643
simulation_result	9	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	55.6%	0.3327	0.1643
published_final	9	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	55.6%	0.3327	0.1643

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 9,
  "team_run_mae": 2.3333,
  "total_run_mae": 3.1111,
  "margin_mae": 2.8889,
  "winner_hits": 5,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5556,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3327,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1643
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	4	1	0	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.3713	-0.0207	0.3506	0.392	4	3	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.3713,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.0207,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.3506,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.392,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=5

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	1.0	-3.0	-2.0	4.0	5	1	2	2	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.7116	-0.3077	0.4039	1.0193	5	3	2	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.7116,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.3077,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.4039,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0193,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	7	4	3	0.5714
[0.550, 0.600)	1	1	0	1.0
[0.600, 1.010)	1	0	1	0.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5714
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260903	9	0.5498	9.5556	0.5556

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260903",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5498,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.5556,
      "accuracy": 0.5556
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	9	5	4	0.5556

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.5556
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260903_BOS@BAL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 5 - 4 BAL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.3% · weight 50.0% · n=377

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2541

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.417132654312412-4.14659838549456	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 377,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52165,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7571,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.68,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2541
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02714234027747738
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02583438647155788
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025469233119157882
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024772560491870273
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024323286044803112
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05238170882705646,
      "1": 0.08868524045314105,
      "2": 0.12807042515676886,
      "3": 0.15775101864735297,
      "4": 0.16573770125948473,
      "5": 0.14852387358387512,
      "6": 0.11352644575648756,
      "7": 0.07401566287647009,
      "8": 0.041160064086544906,
      "9": 0.01952334681676674,
      "10": 0.00789874900842958,
      "11": 0.002725763527621829
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05010180784258782,
      "1": 0.08499791372421883,
      "2": 0.12349669055516775,
      "3": 0.15367193418039726,
      "4": 0.1637668440627301,
      "5": 0.1494684691751908,
      "6": 0.11683295943832683,
      "7": 0.07821199309897493,
      "8": 0.04484081662751839,
      "9": 0.022017391132197063,
      "10": 0.009258707973879987,
      "11": 0.003334472188810219
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0592,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.61,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2541,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6024,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2541,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.68,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0592,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.417132654312412,
      "home_runs": 4.14659838549456,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260903_CHW@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreCHW 4 - 5 HOU

Final confidence55.9%

Calibrationraw 57.9% → blended 56.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=304

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4151

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.180573788353939-5.2177704234137785	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.118232,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.559116,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.559116,
    "away_win_probability": 0.440884
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.118232,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.559116395,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.579311,
    "sample_size": 304,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.569255,
    "published_confidence": 0.559116,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6364,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4151
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021739545488447597
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02103023122964983
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020992345252162637
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020307410517861165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02000697287056929
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028797959261630764,
      "1": 0.049811858468562155,
      "2": 0.07670581505422976,
      "3": 0.10515945909816596,
      "4": 0.1283491241089631,
      "5": 0.13946395789208735,
      "6": 0.13491355117020823,
      "7": 0.11619131657604029,
      "8": 0.08908739968106671,
      "9": 0.060811176238448825,
      "10": 0.03695515566340423,
      "11": 0.01999360828635625,
      "12": 0.009630122985042159,
      "13": 0.004129495515794185
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04314034715999286,
      "1": 0.07364771394722171,
      "2": 0.10903567642034916,
      "3": 0.13999473083795558,
      "4": 0.15587930973010924,
      "5": 0.15052165139616808,
      "6": 0.12605009900858688,
      "7": 0.09154215336813866,
      "8": 0.057654442054079436,
      "9": 0.03149039725920637,
      "10": 0.014916166466242789,
      "11": 0.006127312351949447
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0402,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.066,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4151,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5591,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5336,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5591,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4151,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.004,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0402,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260903_MIA@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIA

Published scoreMIA 5 - 4 KC

Final confidence54.8%

Calibrationraw 48.4% → blended 50.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.5% · weight 50.0% · n=471

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4839

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.948586990366661-4.032766840899002	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.095284,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.547642,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.452358,
    "away_win_probability": 0.547642
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.095284,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.54764165,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.48373,
    "sample_size": 471,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.535,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.509365,
    "published_confidence": 0.547642,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.045,
    "away_run_delta": 0.045,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8607,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.216,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4839
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027260982179708917
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026524350437002697
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025297850532083055
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025238907199931746
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024614265487299142
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05591586175212937,
      "1": 0.09437176553934942,
      "2": 0.1350037086479908,
      "3": 0.16369894458657835,
      "4": 0.16824517613771023,
      "5": 0.14656690741763548,
      "6": 0.10822455002434812,
      "7": 0.06773485643834136,
      "8": 0.03593314268607091,
      "9": 0.016157521801431714,
      "10": 0.0061581584709058884,
      "11": 0.001989406497508194
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04832750777898342,
      "1": 0.08211807534705659,
      "2": 0.11988208728302248,
      "3": 0.15036300661230567,
      "4": 0.16203128556503488,
      "5": 0.15001266472729932,
      "6": 0.11932409382093014,
      "7": 0.0815454127873725,
      "8": 0.04787867215891133,
      "9": 0.024152151857891668,
      "10": 0.01046744614840718,
      "11": 0.0038975959127848063
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0209,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.134,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4839,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5476,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5501,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5476,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4839,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.216,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0209,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.948586990366661,
      "home_runs": 4.032766840899002,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260903_MIL@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 7 - 6 CHC

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 56.3% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.3% · weight 50.0% · n=377

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1714

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.819299747290443-4.036387910226504	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.067372,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533686,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.466314,
    "away_win_probability": 0.533686
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.067372,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 7-6",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 7 - 6 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53368584,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.562857,
    "sample_size": 377,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.548029,
    "published_confidence": 0.533686,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 14.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3821,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.22,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1714
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016595942361042865
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015948176447924622
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01577957211742411
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01577740258156771
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015636480565280633
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02101147029384995,
      "1": 0.03662087084259193,
      "2": 0.05769361948650552,
      "3": 0.0821587453228049,
      "4": 0.10575641127810086,
      "5": 0.12305138495476428,
      "6": 0.12941755815424041,
      "7": 0.12303446660046087,
      "8": 0.10572733234597598,
      "9": 0.0821248619253515,
      "10": 0.05766189681025891,
      "11": 0.03659570271777473,
      "12": 0.020994143028460914,
      "13": 0.010886621064862014,
      "14": 0.005102875301404302,
      "15": 0.002162039872592937
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02020804740059175,
      "1": 0.03524976545949336,
      "2": 0.055671678719714957,
      "3": 0.07960834739759462,
      "4": 0.10306924751902813,
      "5": 0.12082194091967804,
      "6": 0.12823563199410506,
      "7": 0.12323039219236015,
      "8": 0.10721934518451497,
      "9": 0.08446458958698219,
      "10": 0.0602451940403348,
      "11": 0.03890597869072451,
      "12": 0.022748694968078503,
      "13": 0.01204322599007133,
      "14": 0.005772652173083409,
      "15": 0.002505267763644007
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIL 7 - 6 CHC",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIL 7 - 6 CHC",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1494,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.29,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1714,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5352,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1714,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.22,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1494,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.819299747290443,
      "home_runs": 4.036387910226504,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260903_OAK@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreOAK 4 - 6 SEA

Final confidence63.7%

Calibrationraw 68.7% → blended 62.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=295

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6111

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.015792775827129-5.036467105188155	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.274502,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.637251,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.637251,
    "away_win_probability": 0.362749
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.274502,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.637251,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.687401,
    "sample_size": 295,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.62335,
    "published_confidence": 0.637251,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.05,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.204,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6111
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020447278715208243
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02019291488747933
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019992054664378967
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019743353816729505
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01858678745342786
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02444420167438076,
      "1": 0.04245714548091117,
      "2": 0.06620000760561866,
      "3": 0.09266113177571135,
      "4": 0.11643122725339444,
      "5": 0.13133293915991798,
      "6": 0.1329872990825817,
      "7": 0.12088682785034431,
      "8": 0.09864614339475646,
      "9": 0.07226259513964617,
      "10": 0.047520315019035586,
      "11": 0.028052875317363276,
      "12": 0.014866466810807935,
      "13": 0.007072459407170474,
      "14": 0.0030204070478722245,
      "15": 0.0011579579804874263
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.041619822375117986,
      "1": 0.07115036389874542,
      "2": 0.10577676518182272,
      "3": 0.13675389036949498,
      "4": 0.15375362050560187,
      "5": 0.15033055639369303,
      "6": 0.12782194780653505,
      "7": 0.09451480665351664,
      "8": 0.06077577728247079,
      "9": 0.033985795995658714,
      "10": 0.016527251011072653,
      "11": 0.006989402526270365
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0394,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.006,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6111,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.6373,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5884,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6373,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6111,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.204,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0394,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.015792775827129,
      "home_runs": 5.036467105188155,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260903_SF@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreSF 5 - 6 PIT

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 54.6% → blended 53.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.3% · weight 50.0% · n=377

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3866

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.422238759121611-6.086484887635507	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.545736,
    "sample_size": 377,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.539468,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7929,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.368,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3866
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020147338760299952
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019250620856780924
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019002153255212584
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0189302144560362
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018730070592930716
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.029974937146815754,
      "1": 0.05178946762385955,
      "2": 0.07948284237396337,
      "3": 0.10835628567336764,
      "4": 0.13121503687548505,
      "5": 0.141143824592601,
      "6": 0.13486179419696723,
      "7": 0.11446290459340484,
      "8": 0.08629574226574059,
      "9": 0.05779133836783208,
      "10": 0.03437834084562707,
      "11": 0.018165855330130667,
      "12": 0.008526593653708083,
      "13": 0.0035550364604968808
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.031223009565874427,
      "1": 0.053882163508622564,
      "2": 0.08240209656743477,
      "3": 0.11167461674784873,
      "4": 0.13412003331124522,
      "5": 0.14274332453760155,
      "6": 0.13462971766607995,
      "7": 0.11252500360356228,
      "8": 0.08334510707440496,
      "9": 0.054705898463765654,
      "10": 0.031820805875320775,
      "11": 0.016402542286615356,
      "12": 0.007492627308427081,
      "13": 0.0030330534831965517
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0199,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.438,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3866,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5711,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3866,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.368,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0199,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.422238759121611,
      "home_runs": 6.086484887635507,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260903_STL@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 LAD

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 64.6% → blended 60.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=304

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8594

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.768648524906557-5.502578875957481	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.645781,
    "sample_size": 304,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.60249,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2424,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.148,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8594
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022520811635456578
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021435678204623814
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02131522374916494
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02100270761274743
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020543646419573493
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03034411557066788,
      "1": 0.05240895257120917,
      "2": 0.080349081269395,
      "3": 0.10934546840910424,
      "4": 0.13208852854870085,
      "5": 0.14163606547778745,
      "6": 0.13481153214615607,
      "7": 0.11390024911762012,
      "8": 0.08542141126609729,
      "9": 0.056866074457768576,
      "10": 0.03360347533911043,
      "11": 0.0176262359794289,
      "12": 0.00820690495444402,
      "13": 0.0033919048925101884
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045601619473145553,
      "1": 0.07767633369974655,
      "2": 0.11423429943932112,
      "3": 0.14504530572967178,
      "4": 0.1590047814409846,
      "5": 0.15049291066693582,
      "6": 0.12297625148618506,
      "7": 0.08676125215396897,
      "8": 0.052848141939747274,
      "9": 0.0277928437369217,
      "10": 0.012619309727989554,
      "11": 0.0049469505053820065
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0015,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.062,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8594,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6137,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8594,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.148,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0015,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.768648524906557,
      "home_runs": 5.502578875957481,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260903_TB@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 5 - 4 TEX

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 49.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.3% · weight 50.0% · n=377

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.654

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.563554110482263-3.633578830683273	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.067372,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533686,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.466314,
    "away_win_probability": 0.533686
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.067372,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.53368584,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 377,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.49665,
    "published_confidence": 0.533686,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8662,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.26,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.654
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027223704233712495
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025959738140226625
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025590422399952552
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024790857482007805
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02440228775252032
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05267804640418735,
      "1": 0.0891634249415973,
      "2": 0.12865907761276,
      "3": 0.1582671326994166,
      "4": 0.16597307674109812,
      "5": 0.1483819809895756,
      "6": 0.11308924235272046,
      "7": 0.07347811961470686,
      "8": 0.04069971635035749,
      "9": 0.01921858199109978,
      "10": 0.007736560192715393,
      "11": 0.002655040109765078
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.050382292503534466,
      "1": 0.08545234508303325,
      "2": 0.12406366706609721,
      "3": 0.15418417795478434,
      "4": 0.16402482118337078,
      "5": 0.14936674049056242,
      "6": 0.11643211921701621,
      "7": 0.07769020514464703,
      "8": 0.04437458472034893,
      "9": 0.021695861650222827,
      "10": 0.00908017192123729,
      "11": 0.0032530130651455503
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0494,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3767,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.654,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5949,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.654,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.26,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0494,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.563554110482263,
      "home_runs": 3.633578830683273,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260903_TOR@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 4 - 3 CLE

Final confidence54.7%

Calibrationraw 55.6% → blended 54.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=515

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2137

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.504249914703886-3.6139526848856045	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.093106,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.546553,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.453447,
    "away_win_probability": 0.546553
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.093106,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.5465528424999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.555548,
    "sample_size": 515,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5359,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.545724,
    "published_confidence": 0.546553,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2728,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.104,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2137
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03154072689494335
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03088119834417032
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02916048667080535
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028550729845038734
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028054972973027975
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07311135961949385,
      "1": 0.12154140447731583,
      "2": 0.16615938163492014,
      "3": 0.18680423189921336,
      "4": 0.17270693641560816,
      "5": 0.13130887390366466,
      "6": 0.0820993275261603,
      "7": 0.04221301279181738,
      "8": 0.017849017915035174,
      "9": 0.00620645381677103
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.056923641758514804,
      "1": 0.09598674816329716,
      "2": 0.13694605667031506,
      "3": 0.16531316250282638,
      "4": 0.16884374927844537,
      "5": 0.14590903692781934,
      "6": 0.10668393959429673,
      "7": 0.06599872551796739,
      "8": 0.03454551756540028,
      "9": 0.015299157258534729,
      "10": 0.005732749486292766,
      "11": 0.0018175152762900596
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 CLE",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 CLE",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0401,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.034,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TOR",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2137,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TOR",
    "display_confidence": 0.5466,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5906,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5466,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2137,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.104,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0401,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.504249914703886,
      "home_runs": 3.6139526848856045,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260903	20260903_BOS@BAL	BOS	53.0%	51.0%	53.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	6-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 377, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52165, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0058, "away_run_delta": 0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7571, "recent_quality_edge": 0.68, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2541 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02714234027747738 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02583438647155788 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025469233119157882 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024772560491870273 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024323286044803112 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05238170882705646, "1": 0.08868524045314105, "2": 0.12807042515676886, "3": 0.15775101864735297, "4": 0.16573770125948473, "5": 0.14852387358387512, "6": 0.11352644575648756, "7": 0.07401566287647009, "8": 0.041160064086544906, "9": 0.01952334681676674, "10": 0.00789874900842958, "11": 0.002725763527621829 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05010180784258782, "1": 0.08499791372421883, "2": 0.12349669055516775, "3": 0.15367193418039726, "4": 0.1637668440627301, "5": 0.1494684691751908, "6": 0.11683295943832683, "7": 0.07821199309897493, "8": 0.04484081662751839, "9": 0.022017391132197063, "10": 0.009258707973879987, "11": 0.003334472188810219 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0592, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.61, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2541, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260903	20260903_CHW@HOU	HOU	55.9%	57.9%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-6	hit	Variance Applied (-0.0372)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.579311, "sample_size": 304, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.569255, "published_confidence": 0.559116, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6364, "recent_quality_edge": -0.004, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4151 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021739545488447597 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02103023122964983 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020992345252162637 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020307410517861165 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02000697287056929 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.028797959261630764, "1": 0.049811858468562155, "2": 0.07670581505422976, "3": 0.10515945909816596, "4": 0.1283491241089631, "5": 0.13946395789208735, "6": 0.13491355117020823, "7": 0.11619131657604029, "8": 0.08908739968106671, "9": 0.060811176238448825, "10": 0.03695515566340423, "11": 0.01999360828635625, "12": 0.009630122985042159, "13": 0.004129495515794185 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04314034715999286, "1": 0.07364771394722171, "2": 0.10903567642034916, "3": 0.13999473083795558, "4": 0.15587930973010924, "5": 0.15052165139616808, "6": 0.12605009900858688, "7": 0.09154215336813866, "8": 0.057654442054079436, "9": 0.03149039725920637, "10": 0.014916166466242789, "11": 0.006127312351949447 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0402, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.066, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4151, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260903	20260903_MIA@KC	MIA	54.8%	48.4%	53.5%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-7	miss	Variance Applied (0.0842)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.48373, "sample_size": 471, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.535, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.509365, "published_confidence": 0.547642, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.045, "away_run_delta": 0.045, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8607, "recent_quality_edge": 0.216, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4839 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027260982179708917 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026524350437002697 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025297850532083055 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.025238907199931746 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024614265487299142 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05591586175212937, "1": 0.09437176553934942, "2": 0.1350037086479908, "3": 0.16369894458657835, "4": 0.16824517613771023, "5": 0.14656690741763548, "6": 0.10822455002434812, "7": 0.06773485643834136, "8": 0.03593314268607091, "9": 0.016157521801431714, "10": 0.0061581584709058884, "11": 0.001989406497508194 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04832750777898342, "1": 0.08211807534705659, "2": 0.11988208728302248, "3": 0.15036300661230567, "4": 0.16203128556503488, "5": 0.15001266472729932, "6": 0.11932409382093014, "7": 0.0815454127873725, "8": 0.04787867215891133, "9": 0.024152151857891668, "10": 0.01046744614840718, "11": 0.0038975959127848063 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0209, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.134, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4839, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260903	20260903_MIL@CHC	MIL	53.4%	56.3%	53.3%	50.0%	7.0-6.0	1-2	miss	Variance Applied (0.2171)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.562857, "sample_size": 377, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.548029, "published_confidence": 0.533686, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 14.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3821, "recent_quality_edge": 0.22, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1714 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016595942361042865 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015948176447924622 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01577957211742411 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01577740258156771 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015636480565280633 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02101147029384995, "1": 0.03662087084259193, "2": 0.05769361948650552, "3": 0.0821587453228049, "4": 0.10575641127810086, "5": 0.12305138495476428, "6": 0.12941755815424041, "7": 0.12303446660046087, "8": 0.10572733234597598, "9": 0.0821248619253515, "10": 0.05766189681025891, "11": 0.03659570271777473, "12": 0.020994143028460914, "13": 0.010886621064862014, "14": 0.005102875301404302, "15": 0.002162039872592937 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02020804740059175, "1": 0.03524976545949336, "2": 0.055671678719714957, "3": 0.07960834739759462, "4": 0.10306924751902813, "5": 0.12082194091967804, "6": 0.12823563199410506, "7": 0.12323039219236015, "8": 0.10721934518451497, "9": 0.08446458958698219, "10": 0.0602451940403348, "11": 0.03890597869072451, "12": 0.022748694968078503, "13": 0.01204322599007133, "14": 0.005772652173083409, "15": 0.002505267763644007 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 6 CHC", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 6 CHC", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1494, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.29, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1714, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260903	20260903_OAK@SEA	SEA	63.7%	68.7%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	7-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.687401, "sample_size": 295, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.62335, "published_confidence": 0.637251, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 3.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0923, "away_run_delta": -0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.05, "recent_quality_edge": -0.204, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6111 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020447278715208243 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02019291488747933 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019992054664378967 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019743353816729505 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01858678745342786 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02444420167438076, "1": 0.04245714548091117, "2": 0.06620000760561866, "3": 0.09266113177571135, "4": 0.11643122725339444, "5": 0.13133293915991798, "6": 0.1329872990825817, "7": 0.12088682785034431, "8": 0.09864614339475646, "9": 0.07226259513964617, "10": 0.047520315019035586, "11": 0.028052875317363276, "12": 0.014866466810807935, "13": 0.007072459407170474, "14": 0.0030204070478722245, "15": 0.0011579579804874263 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.041619822375117986, "1": 0.07115036389874542, "2": 0.10577676518182272, "3": 0.13675389036949498, "4": 0.15375362050560187, "5": 0.15033055639369303, "6": 0.12782194780653505, "7": 0.09451480665351664, "8": 0.06077577728247079, "9": 0.033985795995658714, "10": 0.016527251011072653, "11": 0.006989402526270365 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0394, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.006, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6111, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260903	20260903_SF@PIT	PIT	53.0%	54.6%	53.3%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	2-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.545736, "sample_size": 377, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.539468, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.7929, "recent_quality_edge": -0.368, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3866 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020147338760299952 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019250620856780924 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019002153255212584 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0189302144560362 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018730070592930716 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.029974937146815754, "1": 0.05178946762385955, "2": 0.07948284237396337, "3": 0.10835628567336764, "4": 0.13121503687548505, "5": 0.141143824592601, "6": 0.13486179419696723, "7": 0.11446290459340484, "8": 0.08629574226574059, "9": 0.05779133836783208, "10": 0.03437834084562707, "11": 0.018165855330130667, "12": 0.008526593653708083, "13": 0.0035550364604968808 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.031223009565874427, "1": 0.053882163508622564, "2": 0.08240209656743477, "3": 0.11167461674784873, "4": 0.13412003331124522, "5": 0.14274332453760155, "6": 0.13462971766607995, "7": 0.11252500360356228, "8": 0.08334510707440496, "9": 0.054705898463765654, "10": 0.031820805875320775, "11": 0.016402542286615356, "12": 0.007492627308427081, "13": 0.0030330534831965517 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0199, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.438, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3866, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260903	20260903_STL@LAD	LAD	53.0%	64.6%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.645781, "sample_size": 304, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.60249, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2424, "recent_quality_edge": 0.148, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8594 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022520811635456578 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021435678204623814 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02131522374916494 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02100270761274743 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020543646419573493 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03034411557066788, "1": 0.05240895257120917, "2": 0.080349081269395, "3": 0.10934546840910424, "4": 0.13208852854870085, "5": 0.14163606547778745, "6": 0.13481153214615607, "7": 0.11390024911762012, "8": 0.08542141126609729, "9": 0.056866074457768576, "10": 0.03360347533911043, "11": 0.0176262359794289, "12": 0.00820690495444402, "13": 0.0033919048925101884 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.045601619473145553, "1": 0.07767633369974655, "2": 0.11423429943932112, "3": 0.14504530572967178, "4": 0.1590047814409846, "5": 0.15049291066693582, "6": 0.12297625148618506, "7": 0.08676125215396897, "8": 0.052848141939747274, "9": 0.0277928437369217, "10": 0.012619309727989554, "11": 0.0049469505053820065 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0015, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.062, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8594, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260903	20260903_TB@TEX	TB	53.4%	46.0%	53.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	0-6	miss	Variance Applied (0.07)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 377, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.49665, "published_confidence": 0.533686, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0068, "away_run_delta": 0.0068, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8662, "recent_quality_edge": -0.26, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.654 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027223704233712495 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025959738140226625 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025590422399952552 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024790857482007805 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02440228775252032 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05267804640418735, "1": 0.0891634249415973, "2": 0.12865907761276, "3": 0.1582671326994166, "4": 0.16597307674109812, "5": 0.1483819809895756, "6": 0.11308924235272046, "7": 0.07347811961470686, "8": 0.04069971635035749, "9": 0.01921858199109978, "10": 0.007736560192715393, "11": 0.002655040109765078 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.050382292503534466, "1": 0.08545234508303325, "2": 0.12406366706609721, "3": 0.15418417795478434, "4": 0.16402482118337078, "5": 0.14936674049056242, "6": 0.11643211921701621, "7": 0.07769020514464703, "8": 0.04437458472034893, "9": 0.021695861650222827, "10": 0.00908017192123729, "11": 0.0032530130651455503 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0494, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3767, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.654, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260903	20260903_TOR@CLE	TOR	54.7%	55.6%	53.6%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	6-3	hit	Variance Applied (0.1097)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.555548, "sample_size": 515, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5359, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.545724, "published_confidence": 0.546553, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2728, "recent_quality_edge": 0.104, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2137 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03154072689494335 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03088119834417032 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02916048667080535 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028550729845038734 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028054972973027975 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07311135961949385, "1": 0.12154140447731583, "2": 0.16615938163492014, "3": 0.18680423189921336, "4": 0.17270693641560816, "5": 0.13130887390366466, "6": 0.0820993275261603, "7": 0.04221301279181738, "8": 0.017849017915035174, "9": 0.00620645381677103 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.056923641758514804, "1": 0.09598674816329716, "2": 0.13694605667031506, "3": 0.16531316250282638, "4": 0.16884374927844537, "5": 0.14590903692781934, "6": 0.10668393959429673, "7": 0.06599872551796739, "8": 0.03454551756540028, "9": 0.015299157258534729, "10": 0.005732749486292766, "11": 0.0018175152762900596 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 CLE", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 3 CLE", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0401, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.034, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2137, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.1111, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.4444 }
R	{ "mae": 1.5556, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1111 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.5556, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1111 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.8889, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.6667 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.3333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4444 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.7222, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0556 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.5556, "mae_innings": 0.8519, "bias_outs": 0.4444 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260903

20260903_BOS@BAL

away

Jake Bennett

True

5.2

6.0

4/5

3/0

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2669039145907472,
      "WHIP": 1.0355871886120995,
      "IP": 93.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.854,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3699,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9686,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
      "walk_factor": 0.914,
      "homer_factor": 0.9503,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.8,
      "bb_percent": 4.8,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.277,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 85,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687562",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 425.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1786,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 244.0,
            "Pitches": 834.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2637,
            "WHIP": 1.022,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36264,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18132,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08242
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 93.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 373.0,
            "Pitches": 1316.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.125,
            "R": 2.1875,
            "H": 4.9375,
            "BB": 1.125,
            "SO": 4.625,
            "HR": 0.4375,
            "BF": 23.3125,
            "Pitches": 82.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2669,
            "WHIP": 1.0356,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36299,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84342,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79004,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07473
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.566,
        "predicted_H": 5.242,
        "predicted_BB": 1.461,
        "predicted_SO": 5.239,
        "predicted_HR": 0.539,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9772,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1543
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8683151163417789,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "data_weight": 0.7619,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "687562",
      "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
      "position": "Starter",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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              "before": 7.0,
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4929,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1429,
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        "available": true,
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        "quality_edge": 0.0511,
        "offense_edge": -0.0037,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687562",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687562",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687562",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 87,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              {
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3699,
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            "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
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            "espn_rank": 85,
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            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.0355,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_BOS@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_BOS@BAL

home

Brandon Young

True

5.2

6.2

-1

3/4

3/2

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.383631713554987,
      "WHIP": 1.3350383631713554,
      "IP": 130.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1806,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0154,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 1.0105,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 63,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.5185,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14815,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 929.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 92.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.3793,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05172,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 130.1,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 103.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 556.0,
            "Pitches": 2074.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1304,
            "R": 2.5217,
            "H": 5.5652,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4783,
            "HR": 0.7391,
            "BF": 24.1739,
            "Pitches": 90.1739
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3836,
            "WHIP": 1.335,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37596,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9821,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79028,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.329,
        "predicted_H": 5.886,
        "predicted_BB": 1.969,
        "predicted_SO": 4.279,
        "predicted_HR": 0.994,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7816,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4171
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.329,
          "final": 3.0399,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.886,
          "final": 4.6581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.969,
          "final": 2.4076,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.279,
          "final": 4.5858,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.994,
          "final": 1.422,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7816,
          "final": 3.7816,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4171,
          "final": 1.4171,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.7241379310344827,
        "WHIP": 1.3793103448275863,
        "K9": 7.137931034482759,
        "HR9": 1.5517241379310345,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9290436119840677,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "player_name": "Brandon Young",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4929,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
        "runs_allowed": 655.0,
        "run_differential": -20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1429,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5357,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6786,
        "offense_index": 1.009,
        "defense_index": 0.9608,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0115
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5357,
        "runs_scored": 627.0,
        "runs_allowed": 550.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.55,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4786,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9286,
        "offense_index": 0.9963,
        "defense_index": 1.1442,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0626
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0511,
        "offense_edge": 0.009,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0037,
        "defense_strength": -0.0392,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1442,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9969,
        "run_prevention": 1.0059,
        "strikeout": 0.9988
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687064",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687064",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 503.0,
            "k_percent": 18.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3395,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2536,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1578,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2986,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0756
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687064",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.51860048115898,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.9819103388677,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.51860048115898,
                "release_spin_rate": 2057.9819103388677,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5186,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.9819,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0756,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5398,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1806,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0154,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 1.0105,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687064",
            "espn_id": 4414339,
            "player_name": "Brandon Young",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 63,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 63,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 336,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 72,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 40,
              "era_value": 3.3836,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 229,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 130.1,
              "ip_rank": 69,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 53,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 99,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 60,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 46,
              "k_value": 103.0,
              "k_rank": 88,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.112532,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.335,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.15,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0105,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_BOS@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_CHW@HOU

away

Luis Castillo

True

4.2

4.0

-2

7/6

1/2

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.311475409836065,
      "WHIP": 1.4426229508196722,
      "IP": 122.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.03,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3805,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0323,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9811,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 1.0935,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.353,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 818,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "622491",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 429.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 85.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4478,
            "WHIP": 1.6567,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71642,
            "H_per_IP": 1.38806,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26866,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89552,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31343
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 903.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 90.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4351,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6039,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24675,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25325,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72078,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 122.0,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 82.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 546.0,
            "Pitches": 2196.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.88,
            "R": 3.28,
            "H": 5.52,
            "BB": 1.52,
            "SO": 4.24,
            "HR": 0.92,
            "BF": 21.84,
            "Pitches": 87.84
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3115,
            "WHIP": 1.4426,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59016,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13115,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31148,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86885,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18852
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.939,
        "predicted_H": 5.797,
        "predicted_BB": 1.353,
        "predicted_SO": 3.978,
        "predicted_HR": 1.187,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6347,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5231
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.939,
          "final": 2.9646,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.797,
          "final": 6.3028,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.353,
          "final": 1.2046,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.978,
          "final": 4.8281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.187,
          "final": 1.1084,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6347,
          "final": 5.6347,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5231,
          "final": 1.5231,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 64,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 5.4350649350649345,
        "WHIP": 1.5,
        "K9": 6.487012987012987,
        "HR9": 2.4545454545454546,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1245401413168037,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "622491",
      "player_name": "Luis Castillo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 139,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5252,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 617.0,
        "run_differential": 43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3094,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7482,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4388,
        "offense_index": 1.0555,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5214,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8214,
        "offense_index": 1.0051,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0044
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0898,
        "offense_edge": 0.0555,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0051,
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0038,
        "run_prevention": 0.995,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "622491",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "622491",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "622491",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.82478399959184,
                "release_spin_rate": 2186.058161203955,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.8248,
              "release_spin_rate": 2186.0582,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1096,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7827,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3805,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0323,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9811,
          "walk_factor": 0.958,
          "homer_factor": 1.0935,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "622491",
            "espn_id": 35124,
            "player_name": "Luis Castillo",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 818,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 818,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 302,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 81,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 108,
              "era_value": 5.3114,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 179,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 264,
              "ip_value": 122.0,
              "ip_rank": 88,
              "h_value": 138.0,
              "h_rank": 30,
              "er_value": 72.0,
              "er_rank": 18,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 17,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 89,
              "k_value": 106.0,
              "k_rank": 83,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.819672,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.4426,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.84,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0935,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9811,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_CHW@HOU

home

Hunter Brown

True

5.2

6.0

-1

6/6

4/2

3/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3333333333333335,
      "WHIP": 1.2962962962962963,
      "IP": 81.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3054,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.974,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0206,
      "walk_factor": 1.076,
      "homer_factor": 0.9645,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.3,
      "bb_percent": 12.9,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.293,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 25.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 93,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1765,
            "WHIP": 1.3059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 941.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.1,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 94.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0419,
            "WHIP": 1.3473,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4491,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79042,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55689,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97006,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14371
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 81.0,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 86.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 340.0,
            "Pitches": 1401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1333,
            "H": 4.0667,
            "BB": 2.9333,
            "SO": 5.7333,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 22.6667,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.2963,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75309,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54321,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06173,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12346
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.342,
        "predicted_H": 4.705,
        "predicted_BB": 2.736,
        "predicted_SO": 5.717,
        "predicted_HR": 0.789,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7526,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3247
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.342,
          "final": 2.6418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.705,
          "final": 5.295,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.736,
          "final": 3.3119,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.717,
          "final": 4.0234,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.789,
          "final": 1.3408,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7526,
          "final": 3.7526,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3247,
          "final": 1.3247,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 31,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.04191616766467,
        "WHIP": 1.3473053892215567,
        "K9": 8.730538922155688,
        "HR9": 1.2934131736526946,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9639935397148129,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5071,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5214,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8214,
        "offense_index": 1.0051,
        "defense_index": 0.933,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0044
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5252,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 617.0,
        "run_differential": 43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3094,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7482,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4388,
        "offense_index": 1.0555,
        "defense_index": 1.0134,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0942
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0898,
        "offense_edge": 0.0051,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0555,
        "defense_strength": -0.067,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0134,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9922,
        "run_prevention": 1.0201,
        "strikeout": 0.9929
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 291.0,
            "k_percent": 25.3,
            "bb_percent": 12.9,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.293,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 73.4226,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2338,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 41.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4571,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0386,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0286,
            "bb_edge": -0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.136
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.29605869429095,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.9095575606843,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.29605869429095,
                "release_spin_rate": 2200.9095575606843,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.2961,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.9096,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.136,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9712,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3054,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.974,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0206,
          "walk_factor": 1.076,
          "homer_factor": 0.9645,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_id": 4717803,
            "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 93,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 93,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 449,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 131,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 89,
              "era_value": 3.3333,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 179,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 229,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 81.0,
              "ip_rank": 151,
              "h_value": 61.0,
              "h_rank": 181,
              "er_value": 30.0,
              "er_rank": 182,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 151,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 57,
              "k_value": 86.0,
              "k_rank": 129,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.555555,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.2962,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.73,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9645,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0206,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_MIA@KC

away

Sandy Alcantara

True

6.1

6.0

-1

0/6

1/1

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4639718804920916,
      "WHIP": 1.1862917398945518,
      "IP": 189.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.54,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1549,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9868,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9554,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9306,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 24,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 135.0,
            "Pitches": 504.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 100.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 1.1212,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84848,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60606,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0303
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 267.0,
            "Pitches": 1014.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 26.7,
            "Pitches": 101.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 1.0606,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80303,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25758,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 189.2,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 175.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 784.0,
            "Pitches": 2863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.5172,
            "R": 2.6897,
            "H": 6.0345,
            "BB": 1.7241,
            "SO": 4.8276,
            "HR": 0.6207,
            "BF": 27.0345,
            "Pitches": 98.7241
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.464,
            "WHIP": 1.1863,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38489,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92267,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26362,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73814,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0949
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.15,
        "predicted_H": 5.73,
        "predicted_BB": 1.86,
        "predicted_SO": 4.723,
        "predicted_HR": 0.506,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9244,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1469
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.15,
          "final": 1.676,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 5.73,
          "final": 3.3684,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.86,
          "final": 1.5056,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.723,
          "final": 3.6007,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.506,
          "final": 0.2975,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9244,
          "final": 2.9244,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1469,
          "final": 1.1469,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 66.0,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.4545454545454546,
        "WHIP": 1.0606060606060606,
        "K9": 6.545454545454546,
        "HR9": 0.8181818181818182,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7782468512735138,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5071,
        "runs_scored": 612.0,
        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
        "run_differential": 18.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1286,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3714,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2429,
        "offense_index": 0.9733,
        "defense_index": 1.0585,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0218
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4429,
        "runs_scored": 599.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6357,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2786,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9143,
        "offense_index": 0.9527,
        "defense_index": 0.9139,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0914
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1132,
        "offense_edge": -0.0267,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0473,
        "defense_strength": 0.0585,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0861,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0082,
        "run_prevention": 0.9809,
        "strikeout": 1.0072
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "645261",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "645261",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 724.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4385,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.497,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4055,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3121,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1481
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "645261",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 102,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 102,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.51275382443535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.096491486143,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 102,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.51275382443535,
                "release_spin_rate": 2245.096491486143,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5128,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.0965,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1481,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0579,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1549,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9868,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9554,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9306,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "645261",
            "espn_id": 35241,
            "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 24,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 24,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 216,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 1,
              "qs_value": 21.0,
              "qs_rank": 1,
              "era_value": 3.4639,
              "era_rank": 25.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 9,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 45,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 189.2,
              "ip_rank": 1,
              "h_value": 175.0,
              "h_rank": 1,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 16,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 46,
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": 30,
              "k_value": 140.0,
              "k_rank": 35,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.643234,
              "k_per_9_rank": 945,
              "whip_value": 1.1862,
              "whip_rank": 27.0,
              "war_value": 3.33,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9868,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9868,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9306,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9554,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_MIA@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_MIA@KC

home

Michael Wacha

True

6.1

6.0

-1

8/6

2/2

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.322265625,
      "WHIP": 1.095703125,
      "IP": 170.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.321,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.467,
      "last_start_IP": 8.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0172,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0015,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 0.9823,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 22,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5052,
            "WHIP": 0.8351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27835,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71134,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12371,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7732,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18557
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 968.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3387,
            "WHIP": 1.0161,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37097,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82258,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83871,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 170.2,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 145.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 136.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 686.0,
            "Pitches": 2537.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.4815,
            "H": 5.3704,
            "BB": 1.5556,
            "SO": 5.037,
            "HR": 0.8148,
            "BF": 25.4074,
            "Pitches": 93.963
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3223,
            "WHIP": 1.0957,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36914,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84961,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24609,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79688,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12891
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.25,
        "predicted_H": 5.12,
        "predicted_BB": 1.289,
        "predicted_SO": 5.209,
        "predicted_HR": 1.091,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1974,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.012
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.25,
          "final": 2.978,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.12,
          "final": 6.3181,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.289,
          "final": 1.5848,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 5.209,
          "final": 3.0421,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.091,
          "final": 0.6372,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1974,
          "final": 3.1974,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.012,
          "final": 1.012,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.338709677419355,
        "WHIP": 1.0161290322580645,
        "K9": 7.548387096774194,
        "HR9": 1.7419354838709677,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8766034006381277,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 0.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 0.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4429,
        "runs_scored": 599.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6357,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2786,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9143,
        "offense_index": 0.9527,
        "defense_index": 0.9139,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0914
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5071,
        "runs_scored": 612.0,
        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
        "run_differential": 18.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1286,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3714,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2429,
        "offense_index": 0.9733,
        "defense_index": 1.0585,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0218
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1132,
        "offense_edge": -0.0473,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0267,
        "defense_strength": -0.0861,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0585,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.994,
        "run_prevention": 1.01,
        "strikeout": 0.9987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608379",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608379",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 604.0,
            "k_percent": 19.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6019,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1246,
            "command_and_miss": -0.175,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1615
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608379",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.98359735962079,
              "release_spin_rate": 1984.113597852512,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.98359735962079,
                "release_spin_rate": 1984.113597852512,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9836,
              "release_spin_rate": 1984.1136,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1615,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1538,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0172,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0015,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 0.9823,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608379",
            "espn_id": 32640,
            "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 22,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 22,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 251,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 19,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 4,
              "era_value": 3.3222,
              "era_rank": 21.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 58,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 45,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 170.2,
              "ip_rank": 4,
              "h_value": 145.0,
              "h_rank": 19,
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": 49,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 20,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 65,
              "k_value": 136.0,
              "k_rank": 45,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.171875,
              "k_per_9_rank": 303,
              "whip_value": 1.0957,
              "whip_rank": 14.0,
              "war_value": 3.41,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0015,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0015,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 119,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_MIA@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_MIL@CHC

away

Logan Henderson

True

6.0

7.0

-1

3/3

2/0

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.475982532751092,
      "WHIP": 0.8253275109170306,
      "IP": 76.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.452,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.467,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6378,
      "sample_weight": 0.956,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9458,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0541,
      "walk_factor": 0.9197,
      "homer_factor": 0.9811,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.1,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.249,
      "xwoba": 0.257,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 46,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2268,
            "WHIP": 0.7113,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24742,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5567,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15464,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98969,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18557
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 865.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 86.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.16,
            "WHIP": 0.7543,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24,
            "H_per_IP": 0.56571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15429
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 86.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 286.0,
            "Pitches": 1134.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.1429,
            "HR": 0.7857,
            "BF": 20.4286,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.476,
            "WHIP": 0.8253,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27511,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64192,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18341,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12664,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1441
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.896,
        "predicted_H": 4.095,
        "predicted_BB": 1.35,
        "predicted_SO": 6.132,
        "predicted_HR": 0.969,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8389,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9056
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
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      },
      {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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            {
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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      },
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9429,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701656",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701656",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 1.5429,
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            "bb_edge": 1.05,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701656",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.19496107158342,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6378,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 46,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 14.0,
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              "k_per_9_value": 10.139738,
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              "whip_value": 0.8253,
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              "war_value": 2.64,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0517,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 3,
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      "predicted_BB": 2,
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      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_MIL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_MIL@CHC

home

Kevin Gausman

True

5.2

7.0

-4

6/5

4/1

7/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2746781115879828,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.934,
          "final": 4.934,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9429,
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        "recent": {
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          "run_differential": 34.0
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 532.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2286,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0286,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 9.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1933,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1186,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0253,
        "strikeout": 0.9857
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.4804,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.316,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0423
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.11256087645637,
              "release_spin_rate": 1999.5502813601959,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1126,
              "release_spin_rate": 1999.5503,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0423,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3022,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.151,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9872,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "592332",
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            "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
            "team": "CHC",
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            "espn_rank": 179,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 179,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
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              "era_value": 4.5193,
              "era_rank": 46.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 58,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 9,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 155.1,
              "ip_rank": 18,
              "h_value": 155.0,
              "h_rank": 9,
              "er_value": 78.0,
              "er_rank": 9,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 29,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 61,
              "k_value": 156.0,
              "k_rank": 22,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.038626,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.2746,
              "whip_rank": 36.0,
              "war_value": 0.98,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9872,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9872,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_MIL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_OAK@SEA

away

Jack Perkins

True

4.0

3.0

-3

5/4

1/5

2/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.41958041958042,
      "WHIP": 1.4895104895104896,
      "IP": 95.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.639,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0641,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0297,
      "walk_factor": 1.012,
      "homer_factor": 1.0221,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.356,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 841,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.162,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7931,
        "prior_weight": 0.2069
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 391.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 78.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64615,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18462
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 796.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.9023,
            "WHIP": 1.6692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.76692,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56391,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06015,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27068
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 95.1,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 100.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 433.0,
            "Pitches": 1673.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.125,
            "R": 2.3125,
            "H": 3.125,
            "BB": 1.3125,
            "SO": 3.4062,
            "HR": 0.5625,
            "BF": 13.5312,
            "Pitches": 52.2812
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4196,
            "WHIP": 1.4895,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71329,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44056,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14336,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18881
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.695,
        "predicted_H": 4.552,
        "predicted_BB": 2.237,
        "predicted_SO": 4.188,
        "predicted_HR": 0.844,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.788,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.62
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4374,
      "form_weight": 0.5626,
      "form_reliability": 0.7931,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.162,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7931,
        "prior_weight": 0.2069
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.695,
          "final": 2.391,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.552,
          "final": 4.3105,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.237,
          "final": 1.6959,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.188,
          "final": 3.2309,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.844,
          "final": 1.3497,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.788,
          "final": 5.788,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.62,
          "final": 1.62,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 6.902255639097745,
        "WHIP": 1.6691729323308273,
        "K9": 9.541353383458647,
        "HR9": 2.43609022556391,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2938284188287656,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.162,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7931,
          "prior_weight": 0.2069
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -0.6667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
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            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
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            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3857,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3857,
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          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
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        },
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 74,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1161
      },
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        "quality_edge": -0.1856,
        "offense_edge": -0.029,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9907,
        "run_prevention": 1.0122,
        "strikeout": 1.0039
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 379.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.8295,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
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            "bb_edge": -0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0812
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.31862708436176,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.278752223051,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.31862708436176,
                "release_spin_rate": 2227.278752223051,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.3186,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.2788,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0812,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.5802,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0641,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "678022",
            "espn_id": 4418686,
            "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 841,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 841,
              "gp_value": 32.0,
              "gp_rank": 201,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 154,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 6.4195,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 236,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 3.0,
              "sv_rank": 66,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 225,
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              "ip_rank": 124,
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              "h_rank": 107,
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              "er_rank": 29,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 46,
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              "bb_rank": 65,
              "k_value": 109.0,
              "k_rank": 81,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.29021,
              "k_per_9_rank": 17,
              "whip_value": 1.4895,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.15,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0221,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0297,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 69,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_OAK@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_OAK@SEA

home

Kade Anderson

True

4.1

5.0

5/7

0/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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    "savant": {
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      "hard_hit_percent": 32.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
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      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
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            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
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          },
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
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            "BB": 5.0,
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            "Pitches": 166.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.254,
        "predicted_H": 4.178,
        "predicted_BB": 1.844,
        "predicted_SO": 4.068,
        "predicted_HR": 0.732,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4844,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3311
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6518,
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      "form_reliability": 0.2857,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 0.6421,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.0237,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.4844,
          "final": 4.4844,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "H": 8,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 8,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.3,
        "K9": 7.2,
        "HR9": 1.8,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2857,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4714,
        "runs_scored": 555.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": -65.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4643,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9643,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4286,
        "offense_index": 0.882,
        "defense_index": 1.015,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1161
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3857,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 805.0,
        "run_differential": -194.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3857,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3643,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.75,
        "offense_index": 0.971,
        "defense_index": 0.7817,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3017
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1856,
        "offense_edge": -0.118,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.029,
        "defense_strength": 0.015,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2183,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.009,
        "run_prevention": 0.9846,
        "strikeout": 1.0079
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "807739",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "807739",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 19.5,
            "bb_percent": 12.2,
            "woba": 0.334,
            "xwoba": 0.235,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.6179,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 91.7814,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9141,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4493,
            "regression_edge": 2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": -0.775,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "807739",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2678,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9772,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9866,
          "walk_factor": 1.0279,
          "homer_factor": 0.9544,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.099,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "807739",
            "espn_id": 5198748,
            "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 374,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 374,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 741,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 270,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 4.5,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 521,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 569,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 10.0,
              "ip_rank": 603,
              "h_value": 8.0,
              "h_rank": 650,
              "er_value": 5.0,
              "er_rank": 640,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 508,
              "bb_value": 5.0,
              "bb_rank": 609,
              "k_value": 8.0,
              "k_rank": 613,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.3,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.12,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0126,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9795,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_OAK@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_SF@PIT

away

Blade Tidwell

True

5.0

5/2

0/5

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.539823008849558,
      "WHIP": 1.2212389380530975,
      "IP": 37.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0569,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9952,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.99,
      "walk_factor": 0.9937,
      "homer_factor": 1.0082,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 367,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.571,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6023,
        "prior_weight": 0.3977
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 452.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2597,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8961,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 138.0,
            "Pitches": 565.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.7,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 13.8,
            "Pitches": 56.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2347,
            "WHIP": 1.3163,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58163,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94898,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36735,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82653,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15306
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 154.0,
            "Pitches": 634.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.4615,
            "R": 1.4615,
            "H": 2.5385,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.3846,
            "HR": 0.3846,
            "BF": 11.8462,
            "Pitches": 48.7692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5398,
            "WHIP": 1.2212,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50442,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87611,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34513,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82301,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13274
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.379,
        "predicted_H": 4.123,
        "predicted_BB": 1.64,
        "predicted_SO": 3.829,
        "predicted_HR": 0.656,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8569,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3074
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.518,
      "form_weight": 0.482,
      "form_reliability": 0.6023,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.571,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6023,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.379,
          "final": 2.1827,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.123,
          "final": 4.5773,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.64,
          "final": 0.7904,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.829,
          "final": 5.9897,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.656,
          "final": 0.3162,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8569,
          "final": 4.8569,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3074,
          "final": 1.3074,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 32.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 27,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.2346938775510194,
        "WHIP": 1.3163265306122447,
        "K9": 7.4387755102040805,
        "HR9": 1.3775510204081631,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0974065606117944,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.571,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6023,
          "prior_weight": 0.3977
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4143,
        "runs_scored": 584.0,
        "runs_allowed": 654.0,
        "run_differential": -70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1714,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6714,
        "offense_index": 0.927,
        "defense_index": 0.9633,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.099
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
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        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4857,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1857,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7143,
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        "defense_index": 0.9545,
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        "recent": {
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0105
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.073,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0889,
        "defense_strength": -0.0367,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0455,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.991,
        "run_prevention": 1.0234,
        "strikeout": 0.9896
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694918",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694918",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 20.1,
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            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.4141,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9119,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.1857,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0215
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694918",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.48410615286664,
              "release_spin_rate": 2488.224804520724,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.48410615286664,
                "release_spin_rate": 2488.224804520724,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4841,
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              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0215,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1536,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0569,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9952,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.99,
          "walk_factor": 0.9937,
          "homer_factor": 1.0082,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694918",
            "espn_id": 4719088,
            "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 367,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 367,
              "gp_value": 13.0,
              "gp_rank": 477,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 215,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 4.5398,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 521,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 420,
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              "sv_rank": 133,
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              "hld_rank": 264,
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              "ip_rank": 372,
              "h_value": 33.0,
              "h_rank": 374,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 321,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 303,
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              "bb_rank": 408,
              "k_value": 31.0,
              "k_rank": 402,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.40708,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.2212,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.13,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9978,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9978,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9972,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0037,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_SF@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_SF@PIT

home

Lake Bachar

True

5.0

2.1

-8

-1

1/0

1/2

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.106194690265487,
      "WHIP": 1.008849557522124,
      "IP": 75.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 45,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.333,
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      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2842,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9758,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
      "walk_factor": 1.012,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
      "whiff_percent": 29.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 195,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 75.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.106,
      "season_WHIP": 1.009,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.142,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7518,
        "prior_weight": 0.2482
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 45,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 163.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.6,
            "Pitches": 32.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.1379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 79.0,
            "Pitches": 324.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 7.9,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6129,
            "WHIP": 0.9194,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48387,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43548,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87097,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 45,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 75.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 77.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 302.0,
            "Pitches": 1214.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.5778,
            "R": 0.6222,
            "H": 1.0667,
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            "SO": 1.7111,
            "HR": 0.2667,
            "BF": 6.7111,
            "Pitches": 26.9778
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0088,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34513,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63717,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37168,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02212,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15929
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 0.92,
        "predicted_H": 1.729,
        "predicted_BB": 1.451,
        "predicted_SO": 2.662,
        "predicted_HR": 0.418,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.896,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.112
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.7518,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7518,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.92,
          "final": 0.9564,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 1.729,
          "final": 1.3974,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.2459,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 3.7255,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.418,
          "final": 0.2279,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 2.896,
          "final": 2.896,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.112,
          "final": 1.112,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 20.2,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 10,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 18,
        "HR": 4,
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        "WHIP": 0.9193548387096774,
        "K9": 7.838709677419354,
        "HR9": 1.7419354838709677,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8598353590490783,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.142,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7518,
          "prior_weight": 0.2482
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
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          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.6667,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4857,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1857,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7143,
        "offense_index": 1.0889,
        "defense_index": 0.9545,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0105
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4143,
        "runs_scored": 584.0,
        "runs_allowed": 654.0,
        "run_differential": -70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1714,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6714,
        "offense_index": 0.927,
        "defense_index": 0.9633,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.099
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1095,
        "offense_edge": 0.0889,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.073,
        "defense_strength": -0.0455,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0367,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0059,
        "run_prevention": 0.9874,
        "strikeout": 1.0091
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 281.0,
            "k_percent": 25.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.291,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8009,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6949,
            "whiff_percent": 29.2,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3623,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3693,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5714,
            "bb_edge": -0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0055
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 49,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 49,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.77040919616555,
              "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164138592872,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 49,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.77040919616555,
                "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164138592872,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7704,
              "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0055,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0391,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2842,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9758,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
          "walk_factor": 1.012,
          "homer_factor": 0.99,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669199",
            "espn_id": 42592,
            "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 195,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 195,
              "gp_value": 46.0,
              "gp_rank": 119,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 197,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.7035,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 402,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 229,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 88,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 264,
              "ip_value": 75.1,
              "ip_rank": 164,
              "h_value": 52.0,
              "h_rank": 223,
              "er_value": 31.0,
              "er_rank": 177,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 113,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 155,
              "k_value": 77.0,
              "k_rank": 151,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.199116,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.0884,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.85,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9758,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9758,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0406,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 70,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_SF@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_STL@LAD

away

Quinn Mathews

True

4.2

5.0

-2

6/4

1/4

3/4

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.033898305084746,
      "WHIP": 1.5762711864406778,
      "IP": 19.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.917,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.917,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.188,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
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              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1103,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7877,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.188,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.984,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0069,
          "walk_factor": 0.9991,
          "homer_factor": 0.9328,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.044,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687273",
            "espn_id": 4837405,
            "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 512,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 512,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 653,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 230,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 5.0338,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 402,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 318,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 19.2,
              "ip_rank": 508,
              "h_value": 23.0,
              "h_rank": 470,
              "er_value": 11.0,
              "er_rank": 489,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 602,
              "bb_value": 8.0,
              "bb_rank": 516,
              "k_value": 20.0,
              "k_rank": 476,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.152542,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.5762,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.01,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9928,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9928,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9698,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_STL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_STL@LAD

home

Tarik Skubal

True

6.0

5.2

-1

3/10

0/1

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.8421052631578947,
      "WHIP": 0.9394736842105262,
      "IP": 126.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.032,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7539,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9359,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0897,
      "walk_factor": 0.902,
      "homer_factor": 0.9579,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.2,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 31.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 19,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 937.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 93.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5082,
            "WHIP": 0.9672,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27869,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7541,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21311,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27869,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04918
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 126.2,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 98.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 153.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 495.0,
            "Pitches": 1909.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9048,
            "R": 2.0952,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 7.2857,
            "HR": 0.5714,
            "BF": 23.5714,
            "Pitches": 90.9048
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8421,
            "WHIP": 0.9395,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77368,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16579,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20789,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09474
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.08,
        "predicted_H": 4.896,
        "predicted_BB": 1.459,
        "predicted_SO": 7.113,
        "predicted_HR": 0.49,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1197,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0591
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.08,
          "final": 1.183,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.896,
          "final": 4.0784,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.459,
          "final": 0.8298,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 7.113,
          "final": 6.633,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.49,
          "final": 0.2787,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1197,
          "final": 3.1197,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0591,
          "final": 1.0591,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 78,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.5081967213114753,
        "WHIP": 0.9672131147540983,
        "K9": 11.508196721311476,
        "HR9": 0.4426229508196721,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7819477951383921,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5899,
        "runs_scored": 684.0,
        "runs_allowed": 538.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0504,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9209,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8705,
        "offense_index": 1.0948,
        "defense_index": 1.1613,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1699
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": -8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5071,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5643,
        "offense_index": 1.0027,
        "defense_index": 0.9848,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.0,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.042
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2119,
        "offense_edge": 0.0948,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0027,
        "defense_strength": 0.1613,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0152,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0132,
        "run_prevention": 0.9737,
        "strikeout": 1.0061
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 444.0,
            "k_percent": 30.9,
            "bb_percent": 4.2,
            "woba": 0.264,
            "xwoba": 0.267,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2343,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5847,
            "whiff_percent": 31.9,
            "swing_percent": 53.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.802,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1586,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9571,
            "bb_edge": 1.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1516
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.57479172715446,
              "release_spin_rate": 2164.2997542296353,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.57479172715446,
                "release_spin_rate": 2164.2997542296353,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5748,
              "release_spin_rate": 2164.2998,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1516,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0827,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7539,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9359,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0897,
          "walk_factor": 0.902,
          "homer_factor": 0.9579,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669373",
            "espn_id": 42409,
            "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 19,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 19,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 363,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 89,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 24,
              "era_value": 2.8421,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 58,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 79,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 126.2,
              "ip_rank": 79,
              "h_value": 98.0,
              "h_rank": 112,
              "er_value": 40.0,
              "er_rank": 141,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 126,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 261,
              "k_value": 153.0,
              "k_rank": 24,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.871053,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8,
              "whip_value": 0.9394,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.47,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9359,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9359,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.902,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9579,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0897,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_STL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_TB@TEX

away

Shane McClanahan

True

5.1

5.0

-1

3/6

1/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.185840707964602,
      "WHIP": 1.1061946902654867,
      "IP": 113.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.913,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0406,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0034,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0131,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.0478,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.1,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 103,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 113.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.186,
      "season_WHIP": 1.106,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663556",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 331.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 17.6,
            "Pitches": 66.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2727,
            "WHIP": 0.9091,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.59091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31818,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 198.0,
            "Pitches": 730.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 73.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1224,
            "WHIP": 1.0204,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34694,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69388,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32653,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7551,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12245
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 113.0,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 87.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 103.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 466.0,
            "Pitches": 1758.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7391,
            "R": 2.087,
            "H": 3.7826,
            "BB": 1.6522,
            "SO": 4.4783,
            "HR": 0.3913,
            "BF": 20.2609,
            "Pitches": 76.4348
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1858,
            "WHIP": 1.1062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35398,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76991,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33628,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9115,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07965
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.857,
        "predicted_H": 3.499,
        "predicted_BB": 1.622,
        "predicted_SO": 4.078,
        "predicted_HR": 0.527,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4305,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0511
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.857,
          "final": 1.9178,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.499,
          "final": 3.2867,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.622,
          "final": 1.3574,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.078,
          "final": 4.4703,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.527,
          "final": 0.3028,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4305,
          "final": 3.4305,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0511,
          "final": 1.0511,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.1224489795918373,
        "WHIP": 1.0204081632653064,
        "K9": 6.79591836734694,
        "HR9": 1.1020408163265307,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.852381050407713,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663556",
      "player_name": "Shane McClanahan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5971,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": 51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3669,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.518,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1511,
        "offense_index": 1.006,
        "defense_index": 1.0819,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 9.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1975
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4929,
        "runs_scored": 572.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3429,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0857,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4286,
        "offense_index": 0.9097,
        "defense_index": 1.0141,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.048
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2455,
        "offense_edge": 0.006,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0903,
        "defense_strength": 0.0819,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0141,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0159,
        "run_prevention": 0.9651,
        "strikeout": 1.0146
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663556",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663556",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 421.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.268,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8008,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4896,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0933,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1629,
            "regression_edge": -1.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0106
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663556",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.67791963059732,
              "release_spin_rate": 2098.2361334703396,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.67791963059732,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6779,
              "release_spin_rate": 2098.2361,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0106,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0761,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0406,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0034,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0131,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.047,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663556",
            "espn_id": 41199,
            "player_name": "Shane McClanahan",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 103,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 103,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 336,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 72,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 121,
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              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 26,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 105,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 113.0,
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              "h_value": 87.0,
              "h_rank": 126,
              "er_value": 40.0,
              "er_rank": 141,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 171,
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              "bb_rank": 89,
              "k_value": 103.0,
              "k_rank": 88,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.20354,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.1061,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.63,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0478,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0131,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_TB@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_TB@TEX

home

Cal Quantrill

True

5.2

7.0

-3

3/2

1/2

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.011152416356877,
      "WHIP": 1.104089219330855,
      "IP": 89.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.121,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0691,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0059,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9497,
      "walk_factor": 0.938,
      "homer_factor": 0.9934,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.285,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 134,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "615698",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 95.0,
            "Pitches": 370.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 74.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.44,
            "WHIP": 0.84,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 198.0,
            "Pitches": 746.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 74.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7365,
            "WHIP": 1.0541,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30405,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85135,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2027,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83108,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12162
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 89.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 77.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 368.0,
            "Pitches": 1399.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.0714,
            "R": 1.2857,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "615698",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "615698",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 68,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 68,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.0691,
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            "player_name": "Cal Quantrill",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.104,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_TB@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_TOR@CLE

away

José Soriano

True

6.0

4.2

-4

3/6

2/3

10/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.449339207048458,
      "WHIP": 1.275330396475771,
      "IP": 151.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.605,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0398,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0034,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0383,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 1.0295,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 32,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 469.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1294,
            "WHIP": 1.3765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45882,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02353,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07059
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 910.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6746,
            "WHIP": 1.2071,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40828,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86982,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33728,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83432,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0355
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.1,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 67.0,
            "SO": 149.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 630.0,
            "Pitches": 2511.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1481,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 2.4815,
            "SO": 5.5185,
            "HR": 0.5185,
            "BF": 23.3333,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4493,
            "WHIP": 1.2753,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38326,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8326,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98458,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09251
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.5,
        "predicted_H": 5.364,
        "predicted_BB": 2.094,
        "predicted_SO": 4.884,
        "predicted_HR": 0.433,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9348,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3043
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.5,
          "final": 1.46,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.364,
          "final": 4.3806,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.094,
          "final": 2.0549,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.884,
          "final": 6.1802,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.433,
          "final": 0.2529,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9348,
          "final": 3.9348,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3043,
          "final": 1.3043,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.6745562130177514,
        "WHIP": 1.2071005917159763,
        "K9": 7.50887573964497,
        "HR9": 0.3195266272189349,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9191604248793951,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4929,
        "runs_scored": 560.0,
        "runs_allowed": 604.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3143,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3143,
        "offense_index": 0.8893,
        "defense_index": 1.0426,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0095
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 563.0,
        "runs_allowed": 571.0,
        "run_differential": -8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0576,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0504,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1079,
        "offense_index": 0.9005,
        "defense_index": 1.0949,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.066
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0755,
        "offense_edge": -0.1107,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0995,
        "defense_strength": 0.0426,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0949,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0022,
        "run_prevention": 0.9836,
        "strikeout": 1.0057
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 572.0,
            "k_percent": 23.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7583,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.244,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6451,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9069,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0676,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2857,
            "regression_edge": -0.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1542
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.62248350722385,
              "release_spin_rate": 2056.682557815389,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.62248350722385,
                "release_spin_rate": 2056.682557815389,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6225,
              "release_spin_rate": 2056.6826,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1542,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1018,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0398,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0034,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0383,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 1.0295,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.031,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "667755",
            "espn_id": 40973,
            "player_name": "Jose Soriano",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 32,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 32,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 251,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 19,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 54,
              "era_value": 3.4493,
              "era_rank": 24.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 20,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 79,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 151.1,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 126.0,
              "h_rank": 59,
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": 63,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 101,
              "bb_value": 67.0,
              "bb_rank": 6,
              "k_value": 149.0,
              "k_rank": 26,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.861233,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.2753,
              "whip_rank": 36.0,
              "war_value": 3.05,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0295,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0383,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_TOR@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260903

20260903_TOR@CLE

home

Tanner Bibee

True

6.0

4.0

-6

7/4

1/5

9/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.8809034907597533,
      "WHIP": 1.1581108829568787,
      "IP": 162.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.798,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1648,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.014,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.0331,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.305,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 60,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "report_date": "20260903",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 937.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 93.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2,
            "WHIP": 1.2333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 162.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 128.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 664.0,
            "Pitches": 2532.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6429,
            "H": 5.0714,
            "BB": 1.6429,
            "SO": 4.5714,
            "HR": 0.9286,
            "BF": 23.7143,
            "Pitches": 90.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8809,
            "WHIP": 1.1581,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43121,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87474,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28337,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7885,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16016
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.766,
        "predicted_H": 5.553,
        "predicted_BB": 1.725,
        "predicted_SO": 5.083,
        "predicted_HR": 1.012,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.188,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2245
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.766,
          "final": 2.4489,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.553,
          "final": 6.1521,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.725,
          "final": 1.4248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.083,
          "final": 6.2907,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.012,
          "final": 0.593,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.188,
          "final": 4.188,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2245,
          "final": 1.2245,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.2,
        "WHIP": 1.2333333333333334,
        "K9": 6.750000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.35,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9789286694553321,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.125,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 563.0,
        "runs_allowed": 571.0,
        "run_differential": -8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0576,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0504,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1079,
        "offense_index": 0.9005,
        "defense_index": 1.0949,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
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        },
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 69,
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        "runs_scored": 560.0,
        "runs_allowed": 604.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3143,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3143,
        "offense_index": 0.8893,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0095
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0755,
        "offense_edge": -0.0995,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1107,
        "defense_strength": 0.0949,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0426,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0103,
        "run_prevention": 0.969,
        "strikeout": 1.0111
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676440",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676440",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.9158,
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          "league_medians": {
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          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.1271,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1252
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676440",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.63291987951403,
              "release_spin_rate": 2307.0595731062376,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.63291987951403,
                "release_spin_rate": 2307.0595731062376,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.6329,
              "release_spin_rate": 2307.0596,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1252,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.8941,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1648,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.014,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.0331,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676440",
            "espn_id": 4345278,
            "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 60,
            "espn_total_ranked": 851,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 60,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 229,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 6,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 3.8809,
              "era_rank": 30.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 136,
              "l_value": 14.0,
              "l_rank": 1,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 162.1,
              "ip_rank": 9,
              "h_value": 142.0,
              "h_rank": 22,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 21,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 8,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 46,
              "k_value": 128.0,
              "k_rank": 50,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0965095,
              "k_per_9_rank": 150,
              "whip_value": 1.1581,
              "whip_rank": 23.0,
              "war_value": 2.23,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0331,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9771,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260903_TOR@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}