Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260901 · dates 20260901 · generated 2026-09-02T21:46:01.005419+00:00

7-8

Winner picks · 46.7%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

9/30

Starter ER within ±1

23/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260901	15	15	0	7	8	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 14
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2476.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	8	53.5%	62.5%	-9.0%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	3	56.5%	66.7%	-10.2%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	2	62.3%	0.0%	62.3%	overconfident
0.65-0.70	1	69.9%	0.0%	69.9%	overconfident
0.70-0.80	1	74.6%	0.0%	74.6%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	3.0977	4.6893	4.1769	46.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	3.0667	4.6667	4.1333	40.0%	-0.031	-0.0436
enhanced_prediction	15	3.2667	4.6667	4.9333	40.0%	0.169	0.7564
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	3.1667	4.4667	4.8667	40.0%	0.069	0.6898
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	3.1333	4.5333	4.8	46.7%	0.0356	0.6231
capped_target	15	3.1333	4.5333	4.8	46.7%	0.0356	0.6231
simulation_result	15	3.1333	4.5333	4.8	46.7%	0.0356	0.6231
published_final	15	3.1333	4.5333	4.8	46.7%	0.0356	0.6231

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 3.2667,
  "total_run_mae": 4.6667,
  "margin_mae": 4.9333,
  "winner_hits": 6,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.169,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.7564
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=8

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	18.0	0.0	18.0	18.0	8	7	0	1	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	-1.0	1.0	3.0	8	2	1	5	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.1475	-1.4258	-0.2783	2.5733	8	3	5	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 18.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 18.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 18.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 7,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.1475,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.4258,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.2783,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.5733,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 5,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=7

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	2.0	-2.0	0.0	4.0	7	1	2	4	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	7	2	0	5	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	7	1	0	6	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.7386	-0.5871	0.1515	1.3257	7	3	4	0	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.7386,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.5871,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.1515,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.3257,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	8	5	3	0.625
[0.550, 0.600)	3	2	1	0.6667
[0.600, 1.010)	4	0	4	0.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 4,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 4,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 8,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.625
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260901	15	0.5779	10.0667	0.4667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260901",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5779,
      "mean_predicted_total": 10.0667,
      "accuracy": 0.4667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	7	8	0.4667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 7,
      "misses": 8,
      "accuracy": 0.4667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260901_ATL@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scoreATL 7 - 5 WAS

Final confidence53.2%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 49.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=356

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6015

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.765660374094055-4.827524636379607	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.0634,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.5317,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.4683,
    "away_win_probability": 0.5317
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.0634,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 7 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5316995600000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 356,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.4969,
    "published_confidence": 0.5317,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8673,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.108,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6015
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01995821442442453
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019169481076336637
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01892601318297621
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018669595080578926
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018475363545164207
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.030701367665958205,
      "1": 0.05300805068392087,
      "2": 0.08118515301361398,
      "3": 0.11029658394613343,
      "4": 0.13292240141923828,
      "5": 0.14209701805982208,
      "6": 0.13474802804857353,
      "7": 0.1133471333440719,
      "8": 0.0845764266064674,
      "9": 0.05598076020606301,
      "10": 0.032868426981492616,
      "11": 0.017118658054122392,
      "12": 0.007908810731433923,
      "13": 0.0032411812390884033
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.029477664601902584,
      "1": 0.05095441742214846,
      "2": 0.07831240994365389,
      "3": 0.10701368478000918,
      "4": 0.13001936140127993,
      "5": 0.1404548434367724,
      "6": 0.13490417559829712,
      "7": 0.11520572083119515,
      "8": 0.08747474394677326,
      "9": 0.05905426861799452,
      "10": 0.0354470331524716,
      "11": 0.018917705863564664,
      "12": 0.008976706522147179,
      "13": 0.003787263881790155
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 7 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 7 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0428,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.318,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6015,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5317,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6295,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5317,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6015,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.108,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0428,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.765660374094055,
      "home_runs": 4.827524636379607,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_BAL@COL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBAL

Published scoreBAL 7 - 4 COL

Final confidence74.6%

Calibrationraw 91.7% → blended 73.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=189

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0874

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.44042358460392-4.386117632649938	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.49227,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.746135,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.253865,
    "away_win_probability": 0.746135
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.49227,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL",
    "confidence": 0.746135,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.916523,
    "sample_size": 189,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.736061,
    "published_confidence": 0.746135,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0978,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.068,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0874
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.018356756084014436
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.017880158552702367
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.017658520640933154
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01732218725643804
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.01720005143724739
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04360611292579306,
      "1": 0.07441139412635464,
      "2": 0.11002669960575975,
      "3": 0.1409688993995375,
      "4": 0.1565002770286683,
      "5": 0.1505474801525027,
      "6": 0.12548691692791433,
      "7": 0.09063375770558683,
      "8": 0.05672155154401611,
      "9": 0.03075904134943346,
      "10": 0.014453201864840098,
      "11": 0.0058846673695931734
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.013303165485851417,
      "1": 0.023380558471086416,
      "2": 0.03776913057878546,
      "3": 0.05607913615841281,
      "4": 0.07653284584865826,
      "5": 0.0960011931051517,
      "6": 0.11068470666837794,
      "7": 0.11729535840151756,
      "8": 0.11425001215446419,
      "9": 0.10228546020096577,
      "10": 0.0841693110172115,
      "11": 0.06366135250575385,
      "12": 0.04425681643369726,
      "13": 0.028279172658774412,
      "14": 0.016608692672756123,
      "15": 0.008965745742753233,
      "16": 0.004448561598241462,
      "17": 0.002028780297540461
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0404,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.418,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0874,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.7461,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7461,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0874,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.068,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0404,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 10,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.44042358460392,
      "home_runs": 4.386117632649938,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_CHW@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 6 - 5 HOU

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 58.2% → blended 55.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=356

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.363

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.035084040470976-3.4519357143046476	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.58242,
    "sample_size": 356,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.55806,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0062,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6166,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.108,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.363
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020420123922494794
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019357986231151602
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019315780458674554
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019106563184558875
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019102026779953617
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03201666928238433,
      "1": 0.05521059259822213,
      "2": 0.08424490226986137,
      "3": 0.11374696470874855,
      "4": 0.13589734301000828,
      "5": 0.1436670183189985,
      "6": 0.13439346606033292,
      "7": 0.11124338475113955,
      "8": 0.08147890760639724,
      "9": 0.052806959741500833,
      "10": 0.030283920320853443,
      "11": 0.0153676686771063,
      "12": 0.006900472763300857,
      "13": 0.002741729891145646
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.030731400350832307,
      "1": 0.053058397581000984,
      "2": 0.08125534035885541,
      "3": 0.11037626721698753,
      "4": 0.13299199362608494,
      "5": 0.14213508543174408,
      "6": 0.13474203375035665,
      "7": 0.11330025993668197,
      "8": 0.08450545006820802,
      "9": 0.055906787384478504,
      "10": 0.03280729012451865,
      "11": 0.017076630701436866,
      "12": 0.007884243314901365,
      "13": 0.0032288201539127735
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0483,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.283,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.363,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6006,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.363,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.108,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0483,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 12,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.035084040470976,
      "home_runs": 3.4519357143046476,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_DET@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreDET 4 - 3 MIN

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 56.6% → blended 55.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=343

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2973

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.070224373054684-3.71884734747627	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 4 - 3 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.565768,
    "sample_size": 343,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.551084,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7072,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.464,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2973
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.037460644341375894
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03453872039825004
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03430804615753884
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03324625203581389
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03293580872019642
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08106594034054755,
      "1": 0.13380096516144693,
      "2": 0.17902107334572137,
      "3": 0.19416598764774215,
      "4": 0.17071286256736,
      "5": 0.1216699760107084,
      "6": 0.0702950410865888,
      "7": 0.03292229065997544,
      "8": 0.012499121497130198,
      "9": 0.0038467416827792193
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07958457313578719,
      "1": 0.13153210310737498,
      "2": 0.17669441786983225,
      "3": 0.19293103182076032,
      "4": 0.17122593116632542,
      "5": 0.12351655737930847,
      "6": 0.07242174964658647,
      "7": 0.03451445651959928,
      "8": 0.013369687546766349,
      "9": 0.0042094918076591315
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "DET 4 - 3 MIN",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "DET 4 - 3 MIN",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0249,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.534,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "DET",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2973,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5885,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2973,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.464,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0249,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.070224373054684,
      "home_runs": 3.71884734747627,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_MIA@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickKC

Published scoreMIA 3 - 5 KC

Final confidence64.6%

Calibrationraw 71.7% → blended 64.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=296

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2701

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.8416924230503575-5.004629177915491	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.29275,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.646375,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.646375,
    "away_win_probability": 0.353625
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.29275,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 3 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.646375,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.717071,
    "sample_size": 296,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.642335,
    "published_confidence": 0.646375,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7645,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.648,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2701
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027109335693769474
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0265080842413954
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02546754024575726
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024902701780730764
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024351915744688327
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0359891955795098,
      "1": 0.061832638403160174,
      "2": 0.0933119232312548,
      "3": 0.1236887574509407,
      "4": 0.14401145439798038,
      "5": 0.1472778955080502,
      "6": 0.1322975576746181,
      "7": 0.10438541147572651,
      "8": 0.07234383242198224,
      "9": 0.04403894838544408,
      "10": 0.023547569721787193,
      "11": 0.01105933380910322,
      "12": 0.004562318134492354,
      "13": 0.0016531638059503354
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0705748718023704,
      "1": 0.11759304571818498,
      "2": 0.16186714554587087,
      "3": 0.18406927665725423,
      "4": 0.17292167407678094,
      "5": 0.13420326606140473,
      "6": 0.08604433201048936,
      "7": 0.045575031522733574,
      "8": 0.019942390508290674,
      "9": 0.007208966096620134
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIA 3 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIA 3 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.052,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.648,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "KC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2701,
      "winner": "KC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.6464,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6215,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6464,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2701,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.648,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.052,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.8416924230503575,
      "home_runs": 5.004629177915491,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_MIL@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreMIL 6 - 8 CHC

Final confidence69.9%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 91.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 80.0% · weight 5.0% · n=10

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0089

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.47287636671265-4.626778154572825	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.397224,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.698612,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.698612,
    "away_win_probability": 0.301388
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.397224,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 8-6",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 6 - 8 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.698612,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 10,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8,
    "empirical_weight": 0.05,
    "blended_confidence": 0.914,
    "published_confidence": 0.698612,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 14.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2355,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.412,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0089
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015581560425784916
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01543550685174523
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.014799044734638354
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01466032606225877
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014630328593359259
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.008595911281906045,
      "1": 0.015197678074586218,
      "2": 0.02499284155339935,
      "3": 0.03823024751589171,
      "4": 0.054394083358613836,
      "5": 0.07198620750554949,
      "6": 0.0886135232280207,
      "7": 0.10146208748924848,
      "8": 0.1080589295757576,
      "9": 0.10704604046579883,
      "10": 0.09863558693537314,
      "11": 0.08453756559909988,
      "12": 0.0673936410482737,
      "13": 0.049973662824182134,
      "14": 0.034468034809006814,
      "15": 0.022112861319586317,
      "16": 0.013195517908709535,
      "17": 0.007324213870530958,
      "18": 0.0037813656364650036
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03249995980124911,
      "1": 0.056018637793445146,
      "2": 0.08536191515411182,
      "3": 0.11499465188884031,
      "4": 0.13695346412128845,
      "5": 0.14419502846232662,
      "6": 0.13421759069545677,
      "7": 0.11044612327924391,
      "8": 0.080347690990447,
      "9": 0.05167472940176485,
      "10": 0.029380887336167522,
      "11": 0.01476840150435471,
      "12": 0.006562721282205719,
      "13": 0.002578198289098176
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "MIL 6 - 8 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "MIL 6 - 8 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.023,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.482,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 8
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 8
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0089,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 8,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.6986,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6025,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6986,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0089,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.412,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.023,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 13,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.47287636671265,
      "home_runs": 4.626778154572825,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_NYM@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreNYM 5 - 6 TB

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 54.1% → blended 53.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=356

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7945

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.31033280455944-4.116581355764794	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.05389,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526945,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.526945,
    "away_win_probability": 0.473055
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.05389,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 TB",
    "confidence": 0.526944626,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.541062,
    "sample_size": 356,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.537381,
    "published_confidence": 0.526945,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9876,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.436,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7945
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021707201144670774
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0213800652723368
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021113842195222842
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020795648470531076
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01962566319424196
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03535082328807649,
      "1": 0.060771546077787605,
      "2": 0.09187238476230909,
      "3": 0.12213879911319679,
      "4": 0.14279278144253485,
      "5": 0.14680566427087488,
      "6": 0.1327282362560357,
      "7": 0.10552801908148994,
      "8": 0.07378298138413643,
      "9": 0.04536579915725285,
      "10": 0.02452928465672386,
      "11": 0.01166339951673366,
      "12": 0.004876962012383589,
      "13": 0.001793318980464278
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03686665420788944,
      "1": 0.06328923390473773,
      "2": 0.09527975343090501,
      "3": 0.12578999014756484,
      "4": 0.14563515228464138,
      "5": 0.14786351230030378,
      "6": 0.1316529195506429,
      "7": 0.10279562788751802,
      "8": 0.07038716369608537,
      "9": 0.04226559232431143,
      "10": 0.022256410695551312,
      "11": 0.010277748032157258,
      "12": 0.004162128445835985,
      "13": 0.0014781130918554578
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1335,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.086,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7945,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5269,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5862,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5269,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7945,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.436,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1335,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.31033280455944,
      "home_runs": 4.116581355764794,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_NYY@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 6 - 4 LAA

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 58.3% → blended 56.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=478

H2H base featurehome net 20.0 · absolute 20.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.2252

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.301503398733531-2.9775424557496057	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.46,
    "away_win_probability": 0.54
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.583135,
    "sample_size": 478,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5377,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.560417,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 20.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 20.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1154,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1154,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.5833,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.56,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.2252
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025211156709896255
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024590718930941682
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023618614171699873
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023058194535024085
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02303736830950894
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049841585736925625,
      "1": 0.08457611099974932,
      "2": 0.12296959377041473,
      "3": 0.1531940620459376,
      "4": 0.16352354448862796,
      "5": 0.14955909176493176,
      "6": 0.11720321169623794,
      "7": 0.07869739793468836,
      "8": 0.04527676612190654,
      "9": 0.022319506795412888,
      "10": 0.009427313593552632,
      "11": 0.0034118150516148226
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.041912386532269565,
      "1": 0.0716313859191286,
      "2": 0.10640663023980891,
      "3": 0.1373847090915024,
      "4": 0.15417447553951188,
      "5": 0.1503802954359995,
      "6": 0.12748930697710886,
      "7": 0.09394225041825324,
      "8": 0.06016619288019573,
      "9": 0.03349257019759594,
      "10": 0.01620499097981036,
      "11": 0.006814805788814961
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0343,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.49,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2252,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6893,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2252,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.56,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0343,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.301503398733531,
      "home_runs": 2.9775424557496057,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_OAK@TEX

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTEX

Published scoreOAK 4 - 5 TEX

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 55.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=515

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9405

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7853162473401714-4.834461439880778	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.09745,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548725,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.548725,
    "away_win_probability": 0.451275
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.09745,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.5487254,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 515,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5398,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5517,
    "published_confidence": 0.548725,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.279,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.312,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9405
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02648999389928902
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025971031771675656
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025438554036147264
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02494019053420773
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02389305549533776
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04381716066119585,
      "1": 0.07475723110688652,
      "2": 0.11047463613895545,
      "3": 0.1414074690725409,
      "4": 0.15677705991920712,
      "5": 0.1505542706255621,
      "6": 0.1252287483081739,
      "7": 0.09022261224895033,
      "8": 0.05630243161433347,
      "9": 0.0304326172057039,
      "10": 0.014247932594372787,
      "11": 0.005777830504117605
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05714048768382886,
      "1": 0.09633386565355899,
      "2": 0.13736198861465929,
      "3": 0.16565581587675815,
      "4": 0.1689660076094058,
      "5": 0.14576207221920026,
      "6": 0.10635116743596952,
      "7": 0.06562850721497075,
      "8": 0.03425274069092834,
      "9": 0.01511996076209137,
      "10": 0.005644929703608048,
      "11": 0.0017824565350206614
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0026,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.242,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9405,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5487,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6048,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5487,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9405,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.312,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0026,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7853162473401714,
      "home_runs": 4.834461439880778,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_PHI@ARI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 4 - 3 ARI

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 58.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=277

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3931

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.976429667891942-3.777059012654999	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.120388,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.560194,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.439806,
    "away_win_probability": 0.560194
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.120388,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.560194365,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.61,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5668,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5884,
    "published_confidence": 0.560194,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2559,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.648,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3931
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027681488284179556
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.026902909443158457
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026671167093089098
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025921004885376978
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024736338103548656
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06637003217483575,
      "1": 0.11098716996137496,
      "2": 0.154439174591913,
      "3": 0.1788241259816426,
      "4": 0.17229738861468033,
      "5": 0.1381386553630662,
      "6": 0.09215856384102589,
      "7": 0.05116112870206501,
      "8": 0.023633523827213693,
      "9": 0.009084494991070781,
      "10": 0.002905741951111771
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04235278072597692,
      "1": 0.0723550086284712,
      "2": 0.10735222632516785,
      "3": 0.13832774502746903,
      "4": 0.15479727990965397,
      "5": 0.1504433995998963,
      "6": 0.1269809986656209,
      "7": 0.09308080357444955,
      "8": 0.05925667727862211,
      "9": 0.03276198845669358,
      "10": 0.015731096544506554,
      "11": 0.006559995263471963
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ARI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ARI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0855,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.648,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3931,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5602,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6016,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5602,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3931,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.648,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0855,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.976429667891942,
      "home_runs": 3.777059012654999,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_SD@CIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSD

Published scoreSD 7 - 4 CIN

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 80.5% → blended 67.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=180

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8428

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.464017985114413-3.812335216003378	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.4,
    "away_win_probability": 0.6
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 7 - 4 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.805086,
    "sample_size": 180,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5444,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.674743,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.05,
    "away_run_delta": 0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0145,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.524,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8428
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02232756870398552
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.022078194221349576
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021661243245329136
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02141931088810875
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.020726965375158623
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05851818026941159,
      "1": 0.09853605622898017,
      "2": 0.13998796933982013,
      "3": 0.16779438547253148,
      "4": 0.16968963277613414,
      "5": 0.1447852660266676,
      "6": 0.10422804714835782,
      "7": 0.06330470754760602,
      "8": 0.032439831262795836,
      "9": 0.014025305827674712,
      "10": 0.005116079296340939,
      "11": 0.0015745388036796297
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022818194618554357,
      "1": 0.03969704440127316,
      "2": 0.06219726653058437,
      "3": 0.0877648584002131,
      "4": 0.11153373521754656,
      "5": 0.12765213107571569,
      "6": 0.1315788615880944,
      "7": 0.1221463270092818,
      "8": 0.10212002959429071,
      "9": 0.07689138510963443,
      "10": 0.052141157618770806,
      "11": 0.03184343327535874,
      "12": 0.01751440288429071,
      "13": 0.008675749771335752,
      "14": 0.003870391807629276,
      "15": 0.0015550310974258986
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 7 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 7 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0764,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.699,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8428,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6429,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8428,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.524,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0764,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.464017985114413,
      "home_runs": 3.812335216003378,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_SEA@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreSEA 3 - 5 BOS

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 68.1% → blended 62.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=266

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9535

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	6.186259693119472-0.9467102083545851	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-1	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 3 - 5 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.680569,
    "sample_size": 266,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.625985,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0437,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0437,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2645,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.376,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9535
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0266381312836227
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02571097073631055
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02525816967515209
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024379039747801857
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02431180187557205
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.034423100198541015,
      "1": 0.05922741987945202,
      "2": 0.08976845669324018,
      "3": 0.11985407810212952,
      "4": 0.14096457446127764,
      "5": 0.14604788280266845,
      "6": 0.13329340385180202,
      "7": 0.10716430787444124,
      "8": 0.07589615601277469,
      "9": 0.047349730255192964,
      "10": 0.02602216043766395,
      "11": 0.012597875238995875,
      "12": 0.005372536417154804,
      "13": 0.0020183177746657013
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06910283398357644,
      "1": 0.11529304602455032,
      "2": 0.15933358343226162,
      "3": 0.1823931355418183,
      "4": 0.17294444253792768,
      "5": 0.13583187252284815,
      "6": 0.08836773433821939,
      "7": 0.04761926724926187,
      "8": 0.021255369152225034,
      "9": 0.007858715217311267
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 3 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 3 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0054,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.551,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9535,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5689,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9535,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.376,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0054,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 6.186259693119472,
      "home_runs": 0.9467102083545851,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_SF@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreSF 5 - 6 PIT

Final confidence54.5%

Calibrationraw 57.8% → blended 55.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=446

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4402

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.2796743912666955-6.151804963939243	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.089044,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.544522,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.544522,
    "away_win_probability": 0.455478
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.089044,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.544521606,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.577649,
    "sample_size": 446,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5404,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.559024,
    "published_confidence": 0.544522,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0409,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8043,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.236,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4402
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020061438161052113
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019825584549489395
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01962204496463589
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01939135710796267
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01814296049504008
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026790694371663985,
      "1": 0.046429901412258626,
      "2": 0.0719153473245707,
      "3": 0.09955324765937965,
      "4": 0.12316840332685079,
      "5": 0.13619250879219222,
      "6": 0.13459135264333807,
      "7": 0.11887516282327452,
      "8": 0.09383721741654986,
      "9": 0.06620170070657933,
      "10": 0.0417419949527815,
      "11": 0.02352270625121118,
      "12": 0.011847082107633125,
      "13": 0.005332680211716408
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036023370752476365,
      "1": 0.06188941095389596,
      "2": 0.09338880096234953,
      "3": 0.12377122763371394,
      "4": 0.14407580224971084,
      "5": 0.14730206777865168,
      "6": 0.1322735742622047,
      "7": 0.1043238926805544,
      "8": 0.07226714989950273,
      "9": 0.043968790538918,
      "10": 0.023496033934999168,
      "11": 0.011027855094590018,
      "12": 0.004546047716136312,
      "13": 0.0016459755422962973
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1715,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3527,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4402,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5445,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5769,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5445,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4402,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.236,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1715,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.2796743912666955,
      "home_runs": 6.151804963939243,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_STL@LAD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreSTL 5 - 7 LAD

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 75.5% → blended 65.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=198

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.1307

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.210663511484838-4.416198534782558	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 7 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.755411,
    "sample_size": 198,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.650455,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0205,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3842,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.66,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.1307
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021266381930905128
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020227860507302672
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02020852052669928
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02002377963453651
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019324549704513673
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.021044768057215727,
      "1": 0.036677653737650556,
      "2": 0.05777716126354273,
      "3": 0.08226367467120052,
      "4": 0.10586618469645287,
      "5": 0.12314128174844466,
      "6": 0.12946349556732367,
      "7": 0.12302354561912776,
      "8": 0.10566384286517917,
      "9": 0.08202794179973483,
      "10": 0.05755651357687372,
      "11": 0.03650265006153096,
      "12": 0.020924330071896095,
      "13": 0.010841165659091295,
      "14": 0.00507688879427598,
      "15": 0.002148901810459535
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.050648361551108516,
      "1": 0.08588321394880175,
      "2": 0.12460038881038393,
      "3": 0.15466737976438874,
      "4": 0.16426546987406326,
      "5": 0.1492663983760929,
      "6": 0.11605024163005237,
      "7": 0.07719661647755743,
      "8": 0.0439358167073342,
      "9": 0.021394757255649738,
      "10": 0.008913827891171242,
      "11": 0.0031775277133960123
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 7 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 7 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0064,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.5433,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1307,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6681,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1307,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.66,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0064,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.210663511484838,
      "home_runs": 4.416198534782558,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260901_TOR@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreTOR 4 - 5 CLE

Final confidence55.5%

Calibrationraw 55.7% → blended 54.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=490

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4158

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.640335215282767-3.6549314150823484	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.110472,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.555236,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.555236,
    "away_win_probability": 0.444764
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.110472,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.55523555,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.557082,
    "sample_size": 490,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.548941,
    "published_confidence": 0.555236,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0136,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0136,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3641,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.512,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4158
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02617202772224236
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02531590214013501
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02523524591981871
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024409763850488396
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0235319882344382
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05497240495260322,
      "1": 0.09285722129126522,
      "2": 0.13317140106637038,
      "3": 0.1621550928779626,
      "4": 0.16763880515151133,
      "5": 0.1471441020916946,
      "6": 0.10965678293811901,
      "7": 0.06938290526006433,
      "8": 0.03727295289655988,
      "9": 0.01700041248618487,
      "10": 0.0065833880736067135,
      "11": 0.0021645309140576425
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.043320787456065546,
      "1": 0.07394364066695928,
      "2": 0.10942000679027582,
      "3": 0.14037315652047316,
      "4": 0.15612153581378832,
      "5": 0.1505334394206114,
      "6": 0.12583300698446948,
      "7": 0.09119007771322374,
      "8": 0.05729174065999602,
      "9": 0.031205264603112775,
      "10": 0.01473516971476851,
      "11": 0.006032173656256115
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1167,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3953,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4158,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5552,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5572,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5552,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4158,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.512,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1167,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.640335215282767,
      "home_runs": 3.6549314150823484,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260901	20260901_ATL@WAS	ATL	53.2%	46.0%	53.4%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	5-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 356, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.4969, "published_confidence": 0.5317, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8673, "recent_quality_edge": -0.108, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6015 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01995821442442453 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019169481076336637 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01892601318297621 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018669595080578926 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018475363545164207 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.030701367665958205, "1": 0.05300805068392087, "2": 0.08118515301361398, "3": 0.11029658394613343, "4": 0.13292240141923828, "5": 0.14209701805982208, "6": 0.13474802804857353, "7": 0.1133471333440719, "8": 0.0845764266064674, "9": 0.05598076020606301, "10": 0.032868426981492616, "11": 0.017118658054122392, "12": 0.007908810731433923, "13": 0.0032411812390884033 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.029477664601902584, "1": 0.05095441742214846, "2": 0.07831240994365389, "3": 0.10701368478000918, "4": 0.13001936140127993, "5": 0.1404548434367724, "6": 0.13490417559829712, "7": 0.11520572083119515, "8": 0.08747474394677326, "9": 0.05905426861799452, "10": 0.0354470331524716, "11": 0.018917705863564664, "12": 0.008976706522147179, "13": 0.003787263881790155 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 7 - 5 WAS", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 7 - 5 WAS", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0428, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.318, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6015, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_BAL@COL	BAL	74.6%	91.7%	55.6%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	2-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.916523, "sample_size": 189, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.736061, "published_confidence": 0.746135, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0083, "away_run_delta": 0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0978, "recent_quality_edge": -1.068, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0874 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.018356756084014436 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.017880158552702367 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017658520640933154 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01732218725643804 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01720005143724739 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04360611292579306, "1": 0.07441139412635464, "2": 0.11002669960575975, "3": 0.1409688993995375, "4": 0.1565002770286683, "5": 0.1505474801525027, "6": 0.12548691692791433, "7": 0.09063375770558683, "8": 0.05672155154401611, "9": 0.03075904134943346, "10": 0.014453201864840098, "11": 0.0058846673695931734 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.013303165485851417, "1": 0.023380558471086416, "2": 0.03776913057878546, "3": 0.05607913615841281, "4": 0.07653284584865826, "5": 0.0960011931051517, "6": 0.11068470666837794, "7": 0.11729535840151756, "8": 0.11425001215446419, "9": 0.10228546020096577, "10": 0.0841693110172115, "11": 0.06366135250575385, "12": 0.04425681643369726, "13": 0.028279172658774412, "14": 0.016608692672756123, "15": 0.008965745742753233, "16": 0.004448561598241462, "17": 0.002028780297540461 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0404, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.418, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0874, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_CHW@HOU	CHW	53.0%	58.2%	53.4%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	5-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.58242, "sample_size": 356, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.55806, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.25, "home_run_delta": 0.0062, "away_run_delta": -0.0062, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6166, "recent_quality_edge": 0.108, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.363 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020420123922494794 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019357986231151602 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019315780458674554 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019106563184558875 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019102026779953617 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03201666928238433, "1": 0.05521059259822213, "2": 0.08424490226986137, "3": 0.11374696470874855, "4": 0.13589734301000828, "5": 0.1436670183189985, "6": 0.13439346606033292, "7": 0.11124338475113955, "8": 0.08147890760639724, "9": 0.052806959741500833, "10": 0.030283920320853443, "11": 0.0153676686771063, "12": 0.006900472763300857, "13": 0.002741729891145646 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.030731400350832307, "1": 0.053058397581000984, "2": 0.08125534035885541, "3": 0.11037626721698753, "4": 0.13299199362608494, "5": 0.14213508543174408, "6": 0.13474203375035665, "7": 0.11330025993668197, "8": 0.08450545006820802, "9": 0.055906787384478504, "10": 0.03280729012451865, "11": 0.017076630701436866, "12": 0.007884243314901365, "13": 0.0032288201539127735 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0483, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.283, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.363, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_DET@MIN	DET	53.0%	56.6%	53.6%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	2-15	miss	Variance Applied (-0.3514)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.565768, "sample_size": 343, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.551084, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7072, "recent_quality_edge": 0.464, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2973 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.037460644341375894 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03453872039825004 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03430804615753884 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03324625203581389 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03293580872019642 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08106594034054755, "1": 0.13380096516144693, "2": 0.17902107334572137, "3": 0.19416598764774215, "4": 0.17071286256736, "5": 0.1216699760107084, "6": 0.0702950410865888, "7": 0.03292229065997544, "8": 0.012499121497130198, "9": 0.0038467416827792193 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07958457313578719, "1": 0.13153210310737498, "2": 0.17669441786983225, "3": 0.19293103182076032, "4": 0.17122593116632542, "5": 0.12351655737930847, "6": 0.07242174964658647, "7": 0.03451445651959928, "8": 0.013369687546766349, "9": 0.0042094918076591315 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "DET 4 - 3 MIN", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "DET 4 - 3 MIN", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0249, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.534, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2973, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_MIA@KC	KC	64.6%	71.7%	56.8%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	6-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.717071, "sample_size": 296, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.642335, "published_confidence": 0.646375, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7645, "recent_quality_edge": 0.648, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2701 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027109335693769474 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0265080842413954 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02546754024575726 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024902701780730764 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024351915744688327 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0359891955795098, "1": 0.061832638403160174, "2": 0.0933119232312548, "3": 0.1236887574509407, "4": 0.14401145439798038, "5": 0.1472778955080502, "6": 0.1322975576746181, "7": 0.10438541147572651, "8": 0.07234383242198224, "9": 0.04403894838544408, "10": 0.023547569721787193, "11": 0.01105933380910322, "12": 0.004562318134492354, "13": 0.0016531638059503354 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0705748718023704, "1": 0.11759304571818498, "2": 0.16186714554587087, "3": 0.18406927665725423, "4": 0.17292167407678094, "5": 0.13420326606140473, "6": 0.08604433201048936, "7": 0.045575031522733574, "8": 0.019942390508290674, "9": 0.007208966096620134 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 3 - 5 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 3 - 5 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.052, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.648, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2701, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_MIL@CHC	CHC	69.9%	92.0%	80.0%	5.0%	6.0-8.0	9-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 10, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8, "empirical_weight": 0.05, "blended_confidence": 0.914, "published_confidence": 0.698612, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 14.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2355, "recent_quality_edge": 0.412, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0089 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015581560425784916 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01543550685174523 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014799044734638354 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01466032606225877 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014630328593359259 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.008595911281906045, "1": 0.015197678074586218, "2": 0.02499284155339935, "3": 0.03823024751589171, "4": 0.054394083358613836, "5": 0.07198620750554949, "6": 0.0886135232280207, "7": 0.10146208748924848, "8": 0.1080589295757576, "9": 0.10704604046579883, "10": 0.09863558693537314, "11": 0.08453756559909988, "12": 0.0673936410482737, "13": 0.049973662824182134, "14": 0.034468034809006814, "15": 0.022112861319586317, "16": 0.013195517908709535, "17": 0.007324213870530958, "18": 0.0037813656364650036 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03249995980124911, "1": 0.056018637793445146, "2": 0.08536191515411182, "3": 0.11499465188884031, "4": 0.13695346412128845, "5": 0.14419502846232662, "6": 0.13421759069545677, "7": 0.11044612327924391, "8": 0.080347690990447, "9": 0.05167472940176485, "10": 0.029380887336167522, "11": 0.01476840150435471, "12": 0.006562721282205719, "13": 0.002578198289098176 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 8 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 8 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.023, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.482, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0089, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_NYM@TB	TB	52.7%	54.1%	53.4%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	2-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.541062, "sample_size": 356, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.537381, "published_confidence": 0.526945, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0083, "away_run_delta": 0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9876, "recent_quality_edge": 0.436, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7945 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021707201144670774 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0213800652723368 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021113842195222842 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020795648470531076 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01962566319424196 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03535082328807649, "1": 0.060771546077787605, "2": 0.09187238476230909, "3": 0.12213879911319679, "4": 0.14279278144253485, "5": 0.14680566427087488, "6": 0.1327282362560357, "7": 0.10552801908148994, "8": 0.07378298138413643, "9": 0.04536579915725285, "10": 0.02452928465672386, "11": 0.01166339951673366, "12": 0.004876962012383589, "13": 0.001793318980464278 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03686665420788944, "1": 0.06328923390473773, "2": 0.09527975343090501, "3": 0.12578999014756484, "4": 0.14563515228464138, "5": 0.14786351230030378, "6": 0.1316529195506429, "7": 0.10279562788751802, "8": 0.07038716369608537, "9": 0.04226559232431143, "10": 0.022256410695551312, "11": 0.010277748032157258, "12": 0.004162128445835985, "13": 0.0014781130918554578 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1335, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.086, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7945, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_NYY@LAA	NYY	54.0%	58.3%	53.8%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	7-3	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.583135, "sample_size": 478, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5377, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.560417, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 20.0, "absolute_net_margin": 20.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.1154, "away_run_delta": -0.1154, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.5833, "recent_quality_edge": -0.56, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.2252 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025211156709896255 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024590718930941682 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023618614171699873 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023058194535024085 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02303736830950894 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.049841585736925625, "1": 0.08457611099974932, "2": 0.12296959377041473, "3": 0.1531940620459376, "4": 0.16352354448862796, "5": 0.14955909176493176, "6": 0.11720321169623794, "7": 0.07869739793468836, "8": 0.04527676612190654, "9": 0.022319506795412888, "10": 0.009427313593552632, "11": 0.0034118150516148226 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.041912386532269565, "1": 0.0716313859191286, "2": 0.10640663023980891, "3": 0.1373847090915024, "4": 0.15417447553951188, "5": 0.1503802954359995, "6": 0.12748930697710886, "7": 0.09394225041825324, "8": 0.06016619288019573, "9": 0.03349257019759594, "10": 0.01620499097981036, "11": 0.006814805788814961 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 LAA", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 LAA", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0343, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.49, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2252, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_OAK@TEX	TEX	54.9%	56.4%	54.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	5-8	hit	Variance Applied (-0.0491)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 515, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5398, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5517, "published_confidence": 0.548725, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.279, "recent_quality_edge": 0.312, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9405 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02648999389928902 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025971031771675656 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025438554036147264 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02494019053420773 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02389305549533776 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04381716066119585, "1": 0.07475723110688652, "2": 0.11047463613895545, "3": 0.1414074690725409, "4": 0.15677705991920712, "5": 0.1505542706255621, "6": 0.1252287483081739, "7": 0.09022261224895033, "8": 0.05630243161433347, "9": 0.0304326172057039, "10": 0.014247932594372787, "11": 0.005777830504117605 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05714048768382886, "1": 0.09633386565355899, "2": 0.13736198861465929, "3": 0.16565581587675815, "4": 0.1689660076094058, "5": 0.14576207221920026, "6": 0.10635116743596952, "7": 0.06562850721497075, "8": 0.03425274069092834, "9": 0.01511996076209137, "10": 0.005644929703608048, "11": 0.0017824565350206614 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0026, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.242, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9405, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_PHI@ARI	PHI	56.0%	61.0%	56.7%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	7-1	hit	Variance Applied (-0.1994)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 277, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5668, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5884, "published_confidence": 0.560194, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2559, "recent_quality_edge": -0.648, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3931 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027681488284179556 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.026902909443158457 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026671167093089098 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.025921004885376978 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024736338103548656 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06637003217483575, "1": 0.11098716996137496, "2": 0.154439174591913, "3": 0.1788241259816426, "4": 0.17229738861468033, "5": 0.1381386553630662, "6": 0.09215856384102589, "7": 0.05116112870206501, "8": 0.023633523827213693, "9": 0.009084494991070781, "10": 0.002905741951111771 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04235278072597692, "1": 0.0723550086284712, "2": 0.10735222632516785, "3": 0.13832774502746903, "4": 0.15479727990965397, "5": 0.1504433995998963, "6": 0.1269809986656209, "7": 0.09308080357444955, "8": 0.05925667727862211, "9": 0.03276198845669358, "10": 0.015731096544506554, "11": 0.006559995263471963 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0855, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.648, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3931, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_SD@CIN	SD	60.0%	80.5%	54.4%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.805086, "sample_size": 180, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5444, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.674743, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.05, "away_run_delta": 0.05, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0145, "recent_quality_edge": -0.524, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8428 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02232756870398552 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.022078194221349576 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021661243245329136 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02141931088810875 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.020726965375158623 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05851818026941159, "1": 0.09853605622898017, "2": 0.13998796933982013, "3": 0.16779438547253148, "4": 0.16968963277613414, "5": 0.1447852660266676, "6": 0.10422804714835782, "7": 0.06330470754760602, "8": 0.032439831262795836, "9": 0.014025305827674712, "10": 0.005116079296340939, "11": 0.0015745388036796297 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.022818194618554357, "1": 0.03969704440127316, "2": 0.06219726653058437, "3": 0.0877648584002131, "4": 0.11153373521754656, "5": 0.12765213107571569, "6": 0.1315788615880944, "7": 0.1221463270092818, "8": 0.10212002959429071, "9": 0.07689138510963443, "10": 0.052141157618770806, "11": 0.03184343327535874, "12": 0.01751440288429071, "13": 0.008675749771335752, "14": 0.003870391807629276, "15": 0.0015550310974258986 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 7 - 4 CIN", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 7 - 4 CIN", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0764, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.699, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8428, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_SEA@BOS	BOS	53.0%	68.1%	57.1%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	9-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (7.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.680569, "sample_size": 266, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.625985, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0437, "away_run_delta": -0.0437, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2645, "recent_quality_edge": 0.376, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9535 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0266381312836227 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02571097073631055 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02525816967515209 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024379039747801857 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02431180187557205 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.034423100198541015, "1": 0.05922741987945202, "2": 0.08976845669324018, "3": 0.11985407810212952, "4": 0.14096457446127764, "5": 0.14604788280266845, "6": 0.13329340385180202, "7": 0.10716430787444124, "8": 0.07589615601277469, "9": 0.047349730255192964, "10": 0.02602216043766395, "11": 0.012597875238995875, "12": 0.005372536417154804, "13": 0.0020183177746657013 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06910283398357644, "1": 0.11529304602455032, "2": 0.15933358343226162, "3": 0.1823931355418183, "4": 0.17294444253792768, "5": 0.13583187252284815, "6": 0.08836773433821939, "7": 0.04761926724926187, "8": 0.021255369152225034, "9": 0.007858715217311267 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 3 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 3 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0054, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.551, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9535, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_SF@PIT	PIT	54.5%	57.8%	54.0%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	12-13	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.577649, "sample_size": 446, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5404, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.559024, "published_confidence": 0.544522, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0409, "away_run_delta": -0.0409, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.8043, "recent_quality_edge": -0.236, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4402 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020061438161052113 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019825584549489395 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01962204496463589 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01939135710796267 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01814296049504008 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.026790694371663985, "1": 0.046429901412258626, "2": 0.0719153473245707, "3": 0.09955324765937965, "4": 0.12316840332685079, "5": 0.13619250879219222, "6": 0.13459135264333807, "7": 0.11887516282327452, "8": 0.09383721741654986, "9": 0.06620170070657933, "10": 0.0417419949527815, "11": 0.02352270625121118, "12": 0.011847082107633125, "13": 0.005332680211716408 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.036023370752476365, "1": 0.06188941095389596, "2": 0.09338880096234953, "3": 0.12377122763371394, "4": 0.14407580224971084, "5": 0.14730206777865168, "6": 0.1322735742622047, "7": 0.1043238926805544, "8": 0.07226714989950273, "9": 0.043968790538918, "10": 0.023496033934999168, "11": 0.011027855094590018, "12": 0.004546047716136312, "13": 0.0016459755422962973 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1715, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3527, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4402, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_STL@LAD	LAD	58.0%	75.5%	54.5%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	13-8	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.755411, "sample_size": 198, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.650455, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0205, "away_run_delta": 0.0205, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3842, "recent_quality_edge": 0.66, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.1307 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021266381930905128 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020227860507302672 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02020852052669928 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02002377963453651 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019324549704513673 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.021044768057215727, "1": 0.036677653737650556, "2": 0.05777716126354273, "3": 0.08226367467120052, "4": 0.10586618469645287, "5": 0.12314128174844466, "6": 0.12946349556732367, "7": 0.12302354561912776, "8": 0.10566384286517917, "9": 0.08202794179973483, "10": 0.05755651357687372, "11": 0.03650265006153096, "12": 0.020924330071896095, "13": 0.010841165659091295, "14": 0.00507688879427598, "15": 0.002148901810459535 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.050648361551108516, "1": 0.08588321394880175, "2": 0.12460038881038393, "3": 0.15466737976438874, "4": 0.16426546987406326, "5": 0.1492663983760929, "6": 0.11605024163005237, "7": 0.07719661647755743, "8": 0.0439358167073342, "9": 0.021394757255649738, "10": 0.008913827891171242, "11": 0.0031775277133960123 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "STL 5 - 7 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "STL 5 - 7 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0064, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.5433, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1307, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260901	20260901_TOR@CLE	CLE	55.5%	55.7%	54.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-6	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.557082, "sample_size": 490, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.548941, "published_confidence": 0.555236, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.667, "home_run_delta": -0.0136, "away_run_delta": 0.0136, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3641, "recent_quality_edge": 0.512, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4158 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02617202772224236 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02531590214013501 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02523524591981871 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024409763850488396 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0235319882344382 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05497240495260322, "1": 0.09285722129126522, "2": 0.13317140106637038, "3": 0.1621550928779626, "4": 0.16763880515151133, "5": 0.1471441020916946, "6": 0.10965678293811901, "7": 0.06938290526006433, "8": 0.03727295289655988, "9": 0.01700041248618487, "10": 0.0065833880736067135, "11": 0.0021645309140576425 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.043320787456065546, "1": 0.07394364066695928, "2": 0.10942000679027582, "3": 0.14037315652047316, "4": 0.15612153581378832, "5": 0.1505334394206114, "6": 0.12583300698446948, "7": 0.09119007771322374, "8": 0.05729174065999602, "9": 0.031205264603112775, "10": 0.01473516971476851, "11": 0.006032173656256115 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1167, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3953, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4158, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.7333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.6 }
R	{ "mae": 2.5667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1667 }
ER	{ "mae": 2.5333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.3, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0333 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.3333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.8667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.1333, "mae_innings": 1.0444, "bias_outs": 1.6 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260901

20260901_ATL@WAS

away

AJ Smith-Shawver

True

4.1

4.0

-1

6/6

2/3

2/5

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.926829268292683,
      "WHIP": 1.6097560975609757,
      "IP": 13.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.556,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2037,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0173,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9722,
      "walk_factor": 1.0315,
      "homer_factor": 1.0064,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.9,
      "bb_percent": 12.7,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 20.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 582,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700363",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 234.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 2.6667,
            "SO": 3.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9268,
            "WHIP": 1.6098,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65854,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02439,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07317
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 234.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 2.6667,
            "SO": 3.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9268,
            "WHIP": 1.6098,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65854,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02439,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07317
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 234.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 2.6667,
            "SO": 3.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9268,
            "WHIP": 1.6098,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65854,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02439,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07317
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.605,
        "predicted_H": 4.629,
        "predicted_BB": 2.107,
        "predicted_SO": 4.019,
        "predicted_HR": 0.556,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0248,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4433
      }
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 3,
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      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.375,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "700363",
      "player_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 138,
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        "win_pct": 0.5942,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 526.0,
        "run_differential": 113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6304,
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          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4714,
        "runs_scored": 726.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 19.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1357,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1857,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.05,
        "offense_index": 1.1611,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2585,
        "offense_edge": 0.0368,
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.009,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700363",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 40.0,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700363",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.03730434782608,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0373,
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            "components": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2037,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver",
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            "espn_rank": 582,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 3.0,
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              "k_per_9_value": 6.585366,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.6097,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0078,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_ATL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_ATL@WAS

home

Jake Irvin

True

5.0

4.0

-3

5/5

1/1

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.620408163265306,
      "WHIP": 1.3959183673469386,
      "IP": 81.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.804,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5216,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0443,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9949,
      "walk_factor": 1.032,
      "homer_factor": 1.1436,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.337,
      "xwoba": 0.351,
      "barrel_percent": 11.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 735,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663623",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.76,
            "WHIP": 1.56,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 860.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1277,
            "WHIP": 1.4681,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68085,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95745,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51064,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91489,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21277
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 81.2,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 75.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 82.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 362.0,
            "Pitches": 1477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2353,
            "H": 4.4118,
            "BB": 2.2941,
            "SO": 4.8235,
            "HR": 0.8235,
            "BF": 21.2941,
            "Pitches": 86.8824
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6204,
            "WHIP": 1.3959,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62449,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91837,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47755,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00408,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17143
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.995,
        "predicted_H": 4.643,
        "predicted_BB": 2.453,
        "predicted_SO": 4.547,
        "predicted_HR": 0.908,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5477,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4606
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.995,
          "final": 2.5512,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.643,
          "final": 4.8022,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.453,
          "final": 1.8049,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.547,
          "final": 5.6411,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.908,
          "final": 0.503,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5477,
          "final": 5.5477,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4606,
          "final": 1.4606,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.0,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.127659574468085,
        "WHIP": 1.4680851063829787,
        "K9": 8.23404255319149,
        "HR9": 1.9148936170212767,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.200999411697313,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663623",
      "player_name": "Jake Irvin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 140,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4714,
        "runs_scored": 726.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 19.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1357,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1857,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.05,
        "offense_index": 1.1611,
        "defense_index": 0.8844,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0076
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5942,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 526.0,
        "run_differential": 113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8116,
        "offense_index": 1.0368,
        "defense_index": 1.1717,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2509
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2585,
        "offense_edge": 0.1611,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0368,
        "defense_strength": -0.1156,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1717,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9847,
        "run_prevention": 1.0304,
        "strikeout": 0.9893
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663623",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663623",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 313.0,
            "k_percent": 22.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.8,
            "woba": 0.337,
            "xwoba": 0.351,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4818,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6495,
            "whiff_percent": 23.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7863,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1136,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2429,
            "bb_edge": -0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1465
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663623",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.2489732816989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2375.958323028785,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.2489732816989,
                "release_spin_rate": 2375.958323028785,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.249,
              "release_spin_rate": 2375.9583,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1465,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0463,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5216,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0443,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9949,
          "walk_factor": 1.032,
          "homer_factor": 1.1436,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "663623",
            "espn_id": 41290,
            "player_name": "Jake Irvin",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 735,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 735,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 414,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 113,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 5.6204,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 299,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 44,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 81.2,
              "ip_rank": 148,
              "h_value": 75.0,
              "h_rank": 152,
              "er_value": 51.0,
              "er_rank": 88,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 95,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 78,
              "k_value": 82.0,
              "k_rank": 140,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.036735,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.3959,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0443,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0443,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1436,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_ATL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_BAL@COL

away

Kyle Bradish

True

5.1

5.0

-1

6/6

2/2

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.027972027972028,
      "WHIP": 1.4125874125874125,
      "IP": 143.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0917,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0078,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9931,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 1.0248,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 139,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680694",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.64,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 904.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.3519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98148,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72222,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09259
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.0,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 133.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 610.0,
            "Pitches": 2393.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4615,
            "R": 2.8077,
            "H": 5.3846,
            "BB": 2.3846,
            "SO": 5.1154,
            "HR": 0.6154,
            "BF": 23.4615,
            "Pitches": 92.0385
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.028,
            "WHIP": 1.4126,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44755,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97902,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43357,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93007,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11189
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.781,
        "predicted_H": 5.609,
        "predicted_BB": 2.043,
        "predicted_SO": 4.199,
        "predicted_HR": 0.677,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8068,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4694
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.781,
          "final": 2.8726,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.609,
          "final": 5.7725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.043,
          "final": 2.025,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.199,
          "final": 3.2795,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.677,
          "final": 0.8121,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8068,
          "final": 4.8068,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4694,
          "final": 1.4694,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.666666666666667,
        "WHIP": 1.3518518518518519,
        "K9": 6.5,
        "HR9": 0.8333333333333334,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0337318782063754,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680694",
      "player_name": "Kyle Bradish",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 645.0,
        "run_differential": -17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1232,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5507,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6739,
        "offense_index": 1.0186,
        "defense_index": 0.9558,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 2,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0898
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 645.0,
        "runs_allowed": 788.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0362,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6739,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7101,
        "offense_index": 1.0462,
        "defense_index": 0.7824,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3373
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4271,
        "offense_edge": 0.0186,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0462,
        "defense_strength": -0.0442,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0139,
        "run_prevention": 0.9905,
        "strikeout": 1.0091
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680694",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680694",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 555.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9014,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0185,
            "whiff_percent": 24.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
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            "woba": 0.317,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.1114,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1571,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0364
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680694",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.5144544635341,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5145,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0364,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2599,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0917,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0078,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9931,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.0248,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680694",
            "espn_id": 4311625,
            "player_name": "Kyle Bradish",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 139,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 139,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 273,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 33,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 30,
              "era_value": 4.0279,
              "era_rank": 38.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 76,
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": 7,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 143.0,
              "ip_rank": 42,
              "h_value": 140.0,
              "h_rank": 21,
              "er_value": 64.0,
              "er_rank": 39,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 73,
              "bb_value": 62.0,
              "bb_rank": 12,
              "k_value": 133.0,
              "k_rank": 42,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.370629,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.4125,
              "whip_rank": 47.0,
              "war_value": 1.19,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0078,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0078,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0248,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9931,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_BAL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_BAL@COL

home

Gabriel Hughes

True

4.1

4.2

-4

7/4

0/2

9/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.608391608391608,
      "WHIP": 1.4475524475524477,
      "IP": 47.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.963,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0828,
      "sample_weight": 0.648,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.993,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9615,
      "walk_factor": 0.9974,
      "homer_factor": 0.9271,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.334,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 4.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 28.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 595,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687312",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 427.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 5.2,
            "R": 5.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.0286,
            "WHIP": 1.7143,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.11429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 820.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6084,
            "WHIP": 1.4476,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73427,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3986,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7972,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1049
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 820.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6084,
            "WHIP": 1.4476,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73427,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3986,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7972,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1049
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.724,
        "predicted_H": 5.04,
        "predicted_BB": 2.02,
        "predicted_SO": 3.821,
        "predicted_HR": 0.746,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.1828,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5129
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.724,
          "final": 4.3503,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.04,
          "final": 6.002,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.02,
          "final": 1.0285,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 3.821,
          "final": 6.363,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.746,
          "final": 0.8707,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.1828,
          "final": 7.1828,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5129,
          "final": 1.5129,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 6.608391608391608,
        "WHIP": 1.4475524475524477,
        "K9": 7.174825174825175,
        "HR9": 0.9440559440559441,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2545684490429463,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687312",
      "player_name": "Gabriel Hughes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.5667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3768,
        "runs_scored": 645.0,
        "runs_allowed": 788.0,
        "run_differential": -143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0362,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6739,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7101,
        "offense_index": 1.0462,
        "defense_index": 0.7824,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3373
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 645.0,
        "run_differential": -17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1232,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5507,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6739,
        "offense_index": 1.0186,
        "defense_index": 0.9558,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0898
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4271,
        "offense_edge": 0.0462,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0186,
        "defense_strength": -0.2176,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0442,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9756,
        "run_prevention": 1.0461,
        "strikeout": 0.9857
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687312",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687312",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 162.0,
            "k_percent": 18.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.334,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 28.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7927,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.6569,
            "whiff_percent": 18.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2965,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5657,
            "regression_edge": 1.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9286,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0324
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687312",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.28619381193431,
              "release_spin_rate": 2171.9113714304062,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.28619381193431,
                "release_spin_rate": 2171.9113714304062,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2862,
              "release_spin_rate": 2171.9114,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0324,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2314,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0828,
          "sample_weight": 0.648,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.993,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9615,
          "walk_factor": 0.9974,
          "homer_factor": 0.9271,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.039,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687312",
            "espn_id": 4634930,
            "player_name": "Gabriel Hughes",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 595,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 595,
              "gp_value": 10.0,
              "gp_rank": 509,
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": 174,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 6.6083,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 517,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 102,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 133,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 47.2,
              "ip_rank": 298,
              "h_value": 50.0,
              "h_rank": 227,
              "er_value": 35.0,
              "er_rank": 158,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 299,
              "bb_value": 19.0,
              "bb_rank": 297,
              "k_value": 38.0,
              "k_rank": 350,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.174825,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.4475,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.12,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9983,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9528,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9751,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_BAL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_CHW@HOU

away

Sean Burke

True

5.0

5.2

-4

7/1

1/4

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3221476510067114,
      "WHIP": 1.1543624161073827,
      "IP": 149.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.391,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1835,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9844,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.028,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 0.9936,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7432,
            "WHIP": 1.4189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52703,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52703,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85135,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2027
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 931.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 93.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.716,
            "WHIP": 1.0473,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30178,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74556,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30178,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1716,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12426
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.0,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 161.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 613.0,
            "Pitches": 2446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.037,
            "R": 2.1111,
            "H": 4.5185,
            "BB": 1.8519,
            "SO": 5.963,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 22.7037,
            "Pitches": 90.5926
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3221,
            "WHIP": 1.1544,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81879,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33557,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08054,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12081
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.28,
        "predicted_H": 4.507,
        "predicted_BB": 2.144,
        "predicted_SO": 5.3,
        "predicted_HR": 0.833,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8641,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2527
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.28,
          "final": 2.9955,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.507,
          "final": 5.5441,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.144,
          "final": 1.6681,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.3,
          "final": 4.7592,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.833,
          "final": 0.4865,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8641,
          "final": 3.8641,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2527,
          "final": 1.2527,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.715976331360947,
        "WHIP": 1.047337278106509,
        "K9": 10.544378698224852,
        "HR9": 1.1183431952662723,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8066663511408483,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "player_name": "Sean Burke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5255,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2993,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.781,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4818,
        "offense_index": 1.0721,
        "defense_index": 0.9951,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0936
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5072,
        "runs_scored": 630.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2899,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5652,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8551,
        "offense_index": 1.0237,
        "defense_index": 0.9186,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0054
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0882,
        "offense_edge": 0.0721,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0237,
        "defense_strength": -0.0049,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0814,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0024,
        "run_prevention": 0.9999,
        "strikeout": 1.0008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 546.0,
            "k_percent": 26.3,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.299,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0384,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8038,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1582,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3579,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0119
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.65202320477285,
              "release_spin_rate": 2508.661669048999,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.65202320477285,
                "release_spin_rate": 2508.661669048999,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.652,
              "release_spin_rate": 2508.6617,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0119,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0851,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1835,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9844,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.028,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 0.9936,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680732",
            "espn_id": 4867679,
            "player_name": "Sean Burke",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 12,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 12,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 71,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 54,
              "era_value": 3.3221,
              "era_rank": 20.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 76,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 102,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 149.0,
              "ip_rank": 31,
              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 62,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 71,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 46,
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": 27,
              "k_value": 161.0,
              "k_rank": 18,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.724833,
              "k_per_9_rank": 15,
              "whip_value": 1.1543,
              "whip_rank": 23.0,
              "war_value": 3.96,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.028,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_CHW@HOU

home

Ronel Blanco

True

4.1

4.0

-1

-4

5/3

3/3

4/3

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 7.714285714285714,
      "WHIP": 1.4571428571428573,
      "IP": 23.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2309,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0196,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9961,
      "walk_factor": 1.0243,
      "homer_factor": 1.05,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 19.8,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.387,
      "xwoba": 0.354,
      "barrel_percent": 11.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 736,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669854",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 390.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.7143,
            "WHIP": 1.4571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 390.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.7143,
            "WHIP": 1.4571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 390.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.7143,
            "WHIP": 1.4571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.275,
        "predicted_H": 4.629,
        "predicted_BB": 2.14,
        "predicted_SO": 4.341,
        "predicted_HR": 1.08,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0989,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4003
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.275,
          "final": 2.5594,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.629,
          "final": 4.8372,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.14,
          "final": 2.6227,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.341,
          "final": 4.1496,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.08,
          "final": 1.0351,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0989,
          "final": 6.0989,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4003,
          "final": 1.4003,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 23.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 22,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 20,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 7.7142857142857135,
        "WHIP": 1.457142857142857,
        "K9": 7.7142857142857135,
        "HR9": 2.6999999999999997,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2888016566449854,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669854",
      "player_name": "Ronel Blanco",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5072,
        "runs_scored": 630.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2899,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5652,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8551,
        "offense_index": 1.0237,
        "defense_index": 0.9186,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0054
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5255,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2993,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.781,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4818,
        "offense_index": 1.0721,
        "defense_index": 0.9951,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0936
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0882,
        "offense_edge": 0.0237,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0721,
        "defense_strength": -0.0814,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0049,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9911,
        "run_prevention": 1.0241,
        "strikeout": 0.9916
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669854",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669854",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 80.0,
            "k_percent": 19.8,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.387,
            "xwoba": 0.354,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8897,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5115,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9539,
            "command_and_miss": -0.24,
            "regression_edge": 0.9429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": -0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1342
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669854",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.46770737139919,
              "release_spin_rate": 2022.1533803616999,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.46770737139919,
                "release_spin_rate": 2022.1533803616999,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4677,
              "release_spin_rate": 2022.1534,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1342,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9588,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2309,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0196,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9961,
          "walk_factor": 1.0243,
          "homer_factor": 1.05,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.033,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669854",
            "espn_id": 41829,
            "player_name": "Ronel Blanco",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 736,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 736,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 609,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 228,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 7.7142,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 517,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 413,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 23.1,
              "ip_rank": 469,
              "h_value": 22.0,
              "h_rank": 472,
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": 301,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 218,
              "bb_value": 12.0,
              "bb_rank": 429,
              "k_value": 20.0,
              "k_rank": 471,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.714286,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.4571,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0109,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0225,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_DET@MIN

away

Troy Melton

True

6.0

5.1

-2

2/6

4/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.8556701030927836,
      "WHIP": 1.0103092783505154,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.062,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2963,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9748,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 0.9494,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.287,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 13,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "report_date": "20260901",
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        },
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675512",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 92,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "675512",
            "espn_id": 5294127,
            "player_name": "Troy Melton",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 13,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 13,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 428,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 120,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 62,
              "era_value": 1.8556,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 76,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 225,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 97.0,
              "ip_rank": 117,
              "h_value": 70.0,
              "h_rank": 155,
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": 301,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 149,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 169,
              "k_value": 80.0,
              "k_rank": 141,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4226804,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.0103,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.76,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9748,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9748,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9494,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9937,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_DET@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_DET@MIN

home

Andrew Morris

True

4.2

1.0

-11

1/2

1/0

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 63.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 53,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.5,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5169,
      "sample_weight": 0.98,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9561,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9826,
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      "homer_factor": 0.8672,
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      "woba": 0.299,
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      "barrel_percent": 3.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 281,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "season_year": 2026,
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 0.8,
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            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "H_per_IP": 1.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 212.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 1.4,
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            "BF": 6.3,
            "Pitches": 21.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.8,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 53,
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            "IP": 63.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 0.6226,
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            "SO": 1.1132,
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.42408,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.34555,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9267,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06283
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.0,
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        "predicted_H": 2.606,
        "predicted_BB": 0.582,
        "predicted_SO": 1.697,
        "predicted_HR": 0.283,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5329
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 6.300000000000001,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.108501983722757,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702193",
      "player_name": "Andrew Morris",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4783,
        "runs_scored": 637.0,
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        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6159,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4599,
        "runs_scored": 597.0,
        "runs_allowed": 542.0,
        "run_differential": 55.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4015,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3577,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9562,
        "offense_index": 0.9771,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
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          "avg_runs_scored": 2.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -27.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0896
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0399,
        "offense_edge": 0.035,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0229,
        "defense_strength": -0.0989,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1273,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9964,
        "run_prevention": 1.0082,
        "strikeout": 1.0006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702193",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702193",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8193,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1007,
            "regression_edge": 0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.9333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.221
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702193",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 22,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 22,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.81125595054272,
              "release_spin_rate": 2063.7543945439807,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 22,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.81125595054272,
                "release_spin_rate": 2063.7543945439807,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.8113,
              "release_spin_rate": 2063.7544,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.221,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.5786,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5169,
          "sample_weight": 0.98,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9561,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9826,
          "walk_factor": 0.9765,
          "homer_factor": 0.8672,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "702193",
            "espn_id": 5007765,
            "player_name": "Andrew Morris",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 281,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 281,
              "gp_value": 53.0,
              "gp_rank": 69,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 269,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.8167,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 178,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 76,
              "sv_value": 4.0,
              "sv_rank": 52,
              "hld_value": 20.0,
              "hld_rank": 14,
              "ip_value": 63.2,
              "ip_rank": 193,
              "h_value": 63.0,
              "h_rank": 170,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 202,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 359,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 236,
              "k_value": 59.0,
              "k_rank": 218,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.340314,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.335,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.38,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.977,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8699,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_DET@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_MIA@KC

away

Tyler Phillips

True

5.0

-4

6/1

2/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.588607594936709,
      "WHIP": 1.3670886075949367,
      "IP": 105.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.578,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3303,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0281,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 1.0689,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.32,
      "xwoba": 0.334,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
      "whiff_percent": 26.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 135,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 105.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.589,
      "season_WHIP": 1.367,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 92.0,
            "Pitches": 344.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 18.4,
            "Pitches": 68.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.381,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04762,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09524,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19048
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 175.0,
            "Pitches": 656.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 17.5,
            "Pitches": 65.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5378,
            "WHIP": 1.4622,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5042,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08403,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37815,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90756,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 105.1,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 99.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 86.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 454.0,
            "Pitches": 1701.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.3125,
            "R": 1.4062,
            "H": 3.0938,
            "BB": 1.4062,
            "SO": 2.6875,
            "HR": 0.4375,
            "BF": 14.1875,
            "Pitches": 53.1562
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5886,
            "WHIP": 1.3671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39873,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93987,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42722,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81646,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13291
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.891,
        "predicted_H": 4.273,
        "predicted_BB": 1.528,
        "predicted_SO": 4.021,
        "predicted_HR": 0.707,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1014,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3981
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.891,
          "final": 2.7495,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.273,
          "final": 4.976,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.528,
          "final": 1.7201,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.021,
          "final": 4.0125,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.707,
          "final": 0.8263,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1014,
          "final": 4.1014,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3981,
          "final": 1.3981,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 39.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.53781512605042,
        "WHIP": 1.46218487394958,
        "K9": 8.168067226890757,
        "HR9": 1.5882352941176472,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0219944054394907,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 597.0,
        "runs_allowed": 585.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.087,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3261,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2391,
        "offense_index": 0.9687,
        "defense_index": 1.0535,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0107
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4493,
        "runs_scored": 590.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -83.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6014,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2754,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8768,
        "offense_index": 0.9573,
        "defense_index": 0.9158,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0122
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0229,
        "offense_edge": -0.0313,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0427,
        "defense_strength": 0.0535,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0842,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0042,
        "run_prevention": 0.9867,
        "strikeout": 1.0041
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663969",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663969",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 421.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.32,
            "xwoba": 0.334,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7988,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5285,
            "whiff_percent": 26.4,
            "swing_percent": 45.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4322,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1679,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0573
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663969",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 67,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 67,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.84117592259537,
              "release_spin_rate": 2059.5043972880403,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 67,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.84117592259537,
                "release_spin_rate": 2059.5043972880403,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8412,
              "release_spin_rate": 2059.5044,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0573,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4094,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3303,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0281,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 1.0689,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663969",
            "espn_id": 41247,
            "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 135,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 135,
              "gp_value": 32.0,
              "gp_rank": 198,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 128,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 3.5886,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 234,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 102,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 86,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 105.1,
              "ip_rank": 107,
              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": 104,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 134,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 95,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 49,
              "k_value": 86.0,
              "k_rank": 122,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.348101,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.367,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.23,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0689,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_MIA@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_MIA@KC

home

Randy Dobnak

True

5.2

6.0

1/7

1/2

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.9161290322580646,
      "WHIP": 1.3741935483870968,
      "IP": 51.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.25,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2067,
      "sample_weight": 0.696,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0176,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9519,
      "walk_factor": 1.0042,
      "homer_factor": 0.9723,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 3.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
      "whiff_percent": 19.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 68,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 51.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.916,
      "season_WHIP": 1.374,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8052,
            "WHIP": 1.5584,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31169,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12987,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77922,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03896
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 897.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 89.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9161,
            "WHIP": 1.3742,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2129,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96774,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40645,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65806,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05806
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 897.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 89.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9161,
            "WHIP": 1.3742,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2129,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96774,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40645,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65806,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05806
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.835,
        "predicted_H": 5.479,
        "predicted_BB": 2.143,
        "predicted_SO": 4.24,
        "predicted_HR": 0.428,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1053,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.433
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.835,
          "final": 1.4252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.479,
          "final": 3.2806,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.143,
          "final": 1.582,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.24,
          "final": 4.613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.428,
          "final": 0.2179,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1053,
          "final": 3.1053,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.433,
          "final": 1.433,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 1.9161290322580646,
        "WHIP": 1.3741935483870968,
        "K9": 5.922580645161291,
        "HR9": 0.5225806451612903,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7248549367487886,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "player_name": "Randy Dobnak",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4493,
        "runs_scored": 590.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -83.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6014,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2754,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8768,
        "offense_index": 0.9573,
        "defense_index": 0.9158,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0122
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 597.0,
        "runs_allowed": 585.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.087,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3261,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2391,
        "offense_index": 0.9687,
        "defense_index": 1.0535,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0107
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0229,
        "offense_edge": -0.0427,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0313,
        "defense_strength": -0.0842,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0535,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9978,
        "run_prevention": 1.0046,
        "strikeout": 1.0018
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677976",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677976",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 174.0,
            "k_percent": 15.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.328,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0473,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5056,
            "whiff_percent": 19.6,
            "swing_percent": 45.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0363,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7129,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1409
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677976",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.34840198382811,
              "release_spin_rate": 2038.5773448044797,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.34840198382811,
                "release_spin_rate": 2038.5773448044797,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3484,
              "release_spin_rate": 2038.5773,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1409,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0066,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2067,
          "sample_weight": 0.696,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0176,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9519,
          "walk_factor": 1.0042,
          "homer_factor": 0.9723,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "677976",
            "espn_id": 42214,
            "player_name": "Randy Dobnak",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 68,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 68,
              "gp_value": 10.0,
              "gp_rank": 509,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 182,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 1.9161,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 299,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 314,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 51.2,
              "ip_rank": 275,
              "h_value": 50.0,
              "h_rank": 227,
              "er_value": 11.0,
              "er_rank": 482,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 423,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 252,
              "k_value": 34.0,
              "k_rank": 372,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.9225807,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.3741,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.0,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0122,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0122,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0029,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9807,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9665,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_MIA@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_MIL@CHC

away

Robert Gasser

True

5.0

4.1

-2

-3

8/3

1/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.591093117408907,
      "WHIP": 1.299595141700405,
      "IP": 82.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0032,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0003,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9834,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.9598,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 298,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 431.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.32,
            "WHIP": 1.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 842.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6433,
            "WHIP": 1.3185,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51592,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07006,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24841,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89809,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13376
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 82.1,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 82.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 358.0,
            "Pitches": 1375.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.625,
            "R": 2.6875,
            "H": 5.125,
            "BB": 1.5625,
            "SO": 4.875,
            "HR": 0.8125,
            "BF": 22.375,
            "Pitches": 85.9375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5911,
            "WHIP": 1.2996,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51012,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99595,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30364,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.537,
        "predicted_H": 5.427,
        "predicted_BB": 1.79,
        "predicted_SO": 4.906,
        "predicted_HR": 0.621,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4865,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4181
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.537,
          "final": 3.6468,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.427,
          "final": 6.5864,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.79,
          "final": 1.434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.906,
          "final": 4.4978,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.621,
          "final": 0.7918,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4865,
          "final": 4.4865,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4181,
          "final": 1.4181,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 27,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 13,
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        "HR": 7,
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        "WHIP": 1.318471337579618,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0302699768145378,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.6159,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 523.0,
        "run_differential": 163.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1812,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.971,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7899,
        "offense_index": 1.1131,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.279
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5652,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0217,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3768,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3551,
        "offense_index": 1.2039,
        "defense_index": 1.0255,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 8.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1462
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1328,
        "offense_edge": 0.1131,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.2039,
        "defense_strength": 0.1784,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0255,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0025,
        "run_prevention": 1.0081,
        "strikeout": 0.9877
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "688107",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "688107",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 312.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.3091,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0515,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0582,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0214,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0985
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "688107",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.10672773196258,
              "release_spin_rate": 2274.4345249885405,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.10672773196258,
                "release_spin_rate": 2274.4345249885405,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1067,
              "release_spin_rate": 2274.4345,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0985,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7032,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0032,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0003,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9834,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.9598,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "688107",
            "espn_id": 4918251,
            "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 298,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 298,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 428,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 128,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 121,
              "era_value": 4.591,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 178,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 129,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 82.1,
              "ip_rank": 147,
              "h_value": 82.0,
              "h_rank": 131,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 134,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 111,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 205,
              "k_value": 78.0,
              "k_rank": 145,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.526316,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.2995,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.32,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9598,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9834,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_MIL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_MIL@CHC

home

Matthew Boyd

True

6.0

5.1

-2

-1

3/7

3/1

8/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9896907216494846,
      "WHIP": 1.2164948453608246,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.706,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3772,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0321,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0778,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 226,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.8,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2258,
            "WHIP": 1.2581,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90323,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35484,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51613,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.29032
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 256.0,
            "Pitches": 929.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 92.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4105,
            "WHIP": 1.1211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37895,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61579,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17368
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.0,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 88.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 401.0,
            "Pitches": 1511.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5294,
            "R": 2.7059,
            "H": 5.1765,
            "BB": 1.7647,
            "SO": 4.4706,
            "HR": 0.8824,
            "BF": 23.5882,
            "Pitches": 88.8824
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9897,
            "WHIP": 1.2165,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4433,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90722,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30928,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78351,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15464
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.992,
        "predicted_H": 5.496,
        "predicted_BB": 2.098,
        "predicted_SO": 4.188,
        "predicted_HR": 1.263,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3751,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.234
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.992,
          "final": 2.9956,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.496,
          "final": 4.3827,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.098,
          "final": 2.5003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.188,
          "final": 5.4422,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.263,
          "final": 1.5917,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3751,
          "final": 4.3751,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.234,
          "final": 1.234,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 63.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 3.4105263157894736,
        "WHIP": 1.1210526315789473,
        "K9": 5.542105263157895,
        "HR9": 1.563157894736842,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8866461082258685,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5652,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0217,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3768,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3551,
        "offense_index": 1.2039,
        "defense_index": 1.0255,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 8.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1462
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.6159,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 523.0,
        "run_differential": 163.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1812,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.971,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7899,
        "offense_index": 1.1131,
        "defense_index": 1.1784,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.279
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1328,
        "offense_edge": 0.2039,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1131,
        "defense_strength": 0.0255,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1784,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9909,
        "run_prevention": 1.0222,
        "strikeout": 0.987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 354.0,
            "k_percent": 19.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.341,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0835,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0922,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4017,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2314,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2582
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.25414106885589,
              "release_spin_rate": 2219.1498721779217,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.25414106885589,
                "release_spin_rate": 2219.1498721779217,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.2541,
              "release_spin_rate": 2219.1499,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2582,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8443,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3772,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0321,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0778,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_id": 34401,
            "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 226,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 226,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 414,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 113,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 75,
              "era_value": 3.9896,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 58,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 225,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 97.0,
              "ip_rank": 117,
              "h_value": 88.0,
              "h_rank": 122,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 129,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 78,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 150,
              "k_value": 76.0,
              "k_rank": 151,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0515466,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.2164,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.64,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0321,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0321,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0778,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9686,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_MIL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_NYM@TB

away

Sean Manaea

True

6.0

5.2

-1

5/11

3/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.548913043478261,
      "WHIP": 1.3206521739130435,
      "IP": 122.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.69,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3547,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0301,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.1153,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 11.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 352,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
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            "BB": 2.0,
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.93548,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32258,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03226,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22581
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.2,
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            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
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            "Pitches": 949.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3743,
            "WHIP": 1.2737,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48603,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30168,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93855,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
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            "IP": 122.2,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
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            "R": 2.4643,
            "H": 4.3571,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5489,
            "WHIP": 1.3207,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50543,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99457,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97826,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16304
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.01,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.895,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.6348,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.01,
          "final": 2.5919,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.622,
          "final": 5.3645,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.895,
          "final": 2.3525,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.734,
          "final": 5.8441,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.203,
          "final": 0.7049,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6348,
          "final": 4.6348,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2863,
          "final": 1.2863,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 4.374301675977653,
        "WHIP": 1.2737430167597765,
        "K9": 8.446927374301675,
        "HR9": 2.1117318435754187,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9988880958765594,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4493,
        "runs_scored": 565.0,
        "runs_allowed": 617.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3768,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0942,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.471,
        "offense_index": 0.9167,
        "defense_index": 0.9989,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1245
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5985,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 565.0,
        "run_differential": 53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3869,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5109,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1241,
        "offense_index": 1.0101,
        "defense_index": 1.0829,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1664
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2909,
        "offense_edge": -0.0833,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0101,
        "defense_strength": -0.0011,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0829,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9879,
        "run_prevention": 1.0163,
        "strikeout": 0.9905
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "640455",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 479.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.346,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7213,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6707,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6375,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0214,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2585
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.24923102451848,
              "release_spin_rate": 2111.7826014761895,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.24923102451848,
                "release_spin_rate": 2111.7826014761895,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.2492,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3547,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0301,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 352,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 352,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
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              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 139,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
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              "w_rank": 178,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 102,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 47,
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              "k_value": 120.0,
              "k_rank": 61,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.804348,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18,
              "whip_value": 1.3206,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_NYM@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_NYM@TB

home

Freddy Peralta

True

5.1

6.0

-3

5/3

2/0

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.1063829787234045,
      "WHIP": 1.4113475177304964,
      "IP": 141.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0903,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9923,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0029,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 0.9784,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 779,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 424.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5976,
            "WHIP": 1.1341,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62195,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91463,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21951,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18293
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 910.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1611,
            "WHIP": 1.4899,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68456,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10738,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38255,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90604,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20134
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 141.0,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 88.0,
            "H": 145.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 133.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 621.0,
            "Pitches": 2517.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.963,
            "R": 3.2593,
            "H": 5.3704,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.9259,
            "HR": 0.8148,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 93.2222
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1064,
            "WHIP": 1.4113,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56738,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02837,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38298,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94326,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15603
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.203,
        "predicted_H": 5.234,
        "predicted_BB": 1.669,
        "predicted_SO": 4.456,
        "predicted_HR": 0.933,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5071,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3187
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.203,
          "final": 3.5345,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.234,
          "final": 5.1367,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.669,
          "final": 1.8067,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.456,
          "final": 4.2663,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.933,
          "final": 1.3769,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5071,
          "final": 5.5071,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3187,
          "final": 1.3187,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.161073825503356,
        "WHIP": 1.4899328859060403,
        "K9": 8.154362416107382,
        "HR9": 1.8120805369127517,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2053047094268576,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5985,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 565.0,
        "run_differential": 53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3869,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5109,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1241,
        "offense_index": 1.0101,
        "defense_index": 1.0829,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1664
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4493,
        "runs_scored": 565.0,
        "runs_allowed": 617.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3768,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0942,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.471,
        "offense_index": 0.9167,
        "defense_index": 0.9989,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1245
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2909,
        "offense_edge": 0.0101,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0833,
        "defense_strength": 0.0829,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0011,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0175,
        "run_prevention": 0.9638,
        "strikeout": 1.0154
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1024,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5759,
            "whiff_percent": 26.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0219,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0429,
            "regression_edge": 0.9429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": 0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0354
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.23342464094252,
              "release_spin_rate": 2302.228094715452,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.23342464094252,
                "release_spin_rate": 2302.228094715452,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2334,
              "release_spin_rate": 2302.2281,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0354,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2525,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0903,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9923,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0029,
          "walk_factor": 0.99,
          "homer_factor": 0.9784,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.033,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "642547",
            "espn_id": 39825,
            "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 779,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 779,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 13,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 88,
              "era_value": 5.1063,
              "era_rank": 51.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 98,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 9,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 141.0,
              "ip_rank": 47,
              "h_value": 145.0,
              "h_rank": 15,
              "er_value": 80.0,
              "er_rank": 7,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 19,
              "bb_value": 54.0,
              "bb_rank": 22,
              "k_value": 133.0,
              "k_rank": 42,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.489362,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.4113,
              "whip_rank": 46.0,
              "war_value": -0.58,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9923,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9923,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9784,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0029,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_NYM@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_NYY@LAA

away

Gerrit Cole

True

6.0

5.1

-2

9/8

0/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1925675675675675,
      "WHIP": 1.0743243243243243,
      "IP": 98.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.804,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.279,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9763,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.008,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 1.0115,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.282,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 46,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3478,
            "WHIP": 1.0435,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81522,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22826,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 7.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6557,
            "WHIP": 0.9836,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29508,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80328,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18033,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16393,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09836
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 98.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 85.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 105.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 402.0,
            "Pitches": 1505.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0588,
            "R": 2.1176,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2353,
            "SO": 6.1765,
            "HR": 0.7647,
            "BF": 23.6471,
            "Pitches": 88.5294
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1926,
            "WHIP": 1.0743,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35473,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86149,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21284,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06419,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13176
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.014,
        "predicted_H": 5.085,
        "predicted_BB": 1.46,
        "predicted_SO": 6.279,
        "predicted_HR": 0.613,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0471,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1002
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.014,
          "final": 1.5617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.085,
          "final": 6.8312,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.46,
          "final": 0.8088,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.279,
          "final": 4.8165,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.613,
          "final": 0.7856,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0471,
          "final": 3.0471,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1002,
          "final": 1.1002,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 71,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.6557377049180326,
        "WHIP": 0.983606557377049,
        "K9": 10.475409836065573,
        "HR9": 0.8852459016393441,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7982962376477839,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5652,
        "runs_scored": 623.0,
        "runs_allowed": 515.0,
        "run_differential": 108.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7826,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5145,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7319,
        "offense_index": 1.0093,
        "defense_index": 1.1985,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1517
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.3841,
        "runs_scored": 565.0,
        "runs_allowed": 638.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.529,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0942,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6232,
        "offense_index": 0.9154,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2686
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4203,
        "offense_edge": 0.0093,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0846,
        "defense_strength": 0.1985,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0325,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0262,
        "run_prevention": 0.9456,
        "strikeout": 1.0194
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543037",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543037",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 348.0,
            "k_percent": 26.1,
            "bb_percent": 5.2,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.282,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6862,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0829,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3017,
            "command_and_miss": 0.33,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1242
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543037",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.0825980662545,
              "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792056180953,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.0825980662545,
                "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792056180953,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.0826,
              "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1242,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8871,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.279,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9763,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.008,
          "walk_factor": 0.92,
          "homer_factor": 1.0115,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "543037",
            "espn_id": 32081,
            "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 46,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 46,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 414,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 113,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 40,
              "era_value": 3.1925,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 76,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 76,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 98.2,
              "ip_rank": 113,
              "h_value": 85.0,
              "h_rank": 126,
              "er_value": 35.0,
              "er_rank": 158,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 111,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 252,
              "k_value": 105.0,
              "k_rank": 83,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.5777025,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.0743,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.6,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9763,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9763,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0115,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_NYY@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_NYY@LAA

home

Grayson Rodriguez

True

5.0

6.0

4/7

3/2

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.027906976744186,
      "WHIP": 1.5209302325581395,
      "IP": 71.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5738,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0488,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 1.1109,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.359,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 818,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 461.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9277,
            "WHIP": 1.1566,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04819,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03614
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 852.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0276,
            "WHIP": 1.3862,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55862,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01379,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37241,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12414
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 71.2,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 78.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 322.0,
            "Pitches": 1299.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.5333,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0667,
            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.4667,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0279,
            "WHIP": 1.5209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66977,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08837,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43256,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.489,
        "predicted_H": 4.865,
        "predicted_BB": 1.951,
        "predicted_SO": 4.926,
        "predicted_HR": 0.529,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3329,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3182
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.489,
          "final": 2.7218,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.865,
          "final": 3.5596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.951,
          "final": 2.429,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.926,
          "final": 6.3266,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.529,
          "final": 0.288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3329,
          "final": 4.3329,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3182,
          "final": 1.3182,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.027586206896551,
        "WHIP": 1.3862068965517238,
        "K9": 7.820689655172412,
        "HR9": 1.1172413793103446,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.075194202599734,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.3841,
        "runs_scored": 565.0,
        "runs_allowed": 638.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.529,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0942,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6232,
        "offense_index": 0.9154,
        "defense_index": 0.9675,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2686
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5652,
        "runs_scored": 623.0,
        "runs_allowed": 515.0,
        "run_differential": 108.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7826,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5145,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7319,
        "offense_index": 1.0093,
        "defense_index": 1.1985,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1517
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4203,
        "offense_edge": -0.0846,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0093,
        "defense_strength": -0.0325,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1985,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9818,
        "run_prevention": 1.0258,
        "strikeout": 0.9866
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 259.0,
            "k_percent": 20.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.6,
            "woba": 0.359,
            "xwoba": 0.355,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.9417,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9599,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9367,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2343,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0025
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.90981092943103,
              "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226176168993,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.90981092943103,
                "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226176168993,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9098,
              "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0025,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.018,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5738,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0488,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 1.1109,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680570",
            "espn_id": 41196,
            "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 818,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 818,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 445,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 128,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 6.0279,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 178,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 129,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 71.2,
              "ip_rank": 168,
              "h_value": 78.0,
              "h_rank": 144,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 105,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 149,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 139,
              "k_value": 65.0,
              "k_rank": 182,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.16279,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.5209,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.9,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0488,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0488,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1109,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9783,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_NYY@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_OAK@TEX

away

Brady Basso

True

4.1

2.1

-6

-2

5/4

0/0

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.3928571428571428,
      "IP": 28.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.889,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0498,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9958,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9774,
      "walk_factor": 0.9469,
      "homer_factor": 0.9752,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 3.3,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 5.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 20.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 291,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.618,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5291,
        "prior_weight": 0.4709
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669620",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 32.0,
            "Pitches": 102.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 6.4,
            "Pitches": 20.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 56.0,
            "Pitches": 196.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.3,
            "BB": 0.1,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 5.6,
            "Pitches": 19.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2143,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.07143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 427.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 0.75,
            "H": 1.75,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.1,
            "HR": 0.15,
            "BF": 6.15,
            "Pitches": 21.35
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3929,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.328,
        "predicted_H": 2.895,
        "predicted_BB": 0.647,
        "predicted_SO": 2.09,
        "predicted_HR": 0.383,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3516,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2899
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.549,
      "form_weight": 0.451,
      "form_reliability": 0.5291,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.618,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5291,
        "prior_weight": 0.4709
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
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        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.3516,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2899,
          "final": 1.2899,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9367334732575803,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 5.618,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5291,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669620",
      "player_name": "Brady Basso",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "before": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "before": 5.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.3841,
        "runs_scored": 597.0,
        "runs_allowed": 795.0,
        "run_differential": -198.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4348,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3261,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7609,
        "offense_index": 0.97,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4928,
        "runs_scored": 562.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0725,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3913,
        "offense_index": 0.9132,
        "defense_index": 1.0156,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0454
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2651,
        "offense_edge": -0.03,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9861,
        "run_prevention": 1.022,
        "strikeout": 0.999
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669620",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669620",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 100.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.209,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9309,
            "whiff_percent": 20.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0763,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2021,
            "regression_edge": 1.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 1.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1353
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669620",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 29,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 29,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.4492706156902,
              "release_spin_rate": 2216.2276490722184,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 29,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.4492706156902,
                "release_spin_rate": 2216.2276490722184,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4493,
              "release_spin_rate": 2216.2276,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1353,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.9662,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0498,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9958,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9774,
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          "homer_factor": 0.9752,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.046,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669620",
            "espn_id": 4179551,
            "player_name": "Brady Basso",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 291,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 291,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 376,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 248,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 4.5,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 517,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 413,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 3.0,
              "hld_rank": 202,
              "ip_value": 28.0,
              "ip_rank": 434,
              "h_value": 35.0,
              "h_rank": 353,
              "er_value": 14.0,
              "er_rank": 420,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 423,
              "bb_value": 4.0,
              "bb_rank": 631,
              "k_value": 22.0,
              "k_rank": 452,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0714283,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.3928,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9761,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9888,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 70,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_OAK@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_OAK@TEX

home

MacKenzie Gore

True

5.1

-2

3/5

3/4

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.399553571428571,
      "WHIP": 1.279017857142857,
      "IP": 149.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1049,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9911,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.032,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.0421,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 123,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 484.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.3875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 917.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 91.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5562,
            "WHIP": 1.2937,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.975,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16875
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.1,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 135.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 165.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 639.0,
            "Pitches": 2552.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6071,
            "R": 2.6071,
            "H": 4.8214,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.8929,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 22.8214,
            "Pitches": 91.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3996,
            "WHIP": 1.279,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48884,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90402,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10491,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12054
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.258,
        "predicted_H": 5.057,
        "predicted_BB": 2.06,
        "predicted_SO": 5.785,
        "predicted_HR": 0.648,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8099,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3346
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.258,
          "final": 2.5652,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.057,
          "final": 4.2054,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.06,
          "final": 2.4492,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.785,
          "final": 5.046,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.648,
          "final": 0.3797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8099,
          "final": 3.8099,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3346,
          "final": 1.3346,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.55625,
        "WHIP": 1.2937500000000002,
        "K9": 10.293750000000001,
        "HR9": 1.51875,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0198574569100791,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4928,
        "runs_scored": 562.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0725,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3913,
        "offense_index": 0.9132,
        "defense_index": 1.0156,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0454
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.3841,
        "runs_scored": 597.0,
        "runs_allowed": 795.0,
        "run_differential": -198.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4348,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3261,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7609,
        "offense_index": 0.97,
        "defense_index": 0.7741,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3105
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2651,
        "offense_edge": -0.0868,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.03,
        "defense_strength": 0.0156,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2259,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0123,
        "run_prevention": 0.9804,
        "strikeout": 1.0104
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 595.0,
            "k_percent": 25.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4859,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5361,
            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0222,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3557,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2429,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0248
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.30705137786757,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.388338902536,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30705137786757,
                "release_spin_rate": 2168.388338902536,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3071,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.3883,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0248,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1769,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1049,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9911,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.032,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0421,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669022",
            "espn_id": 39636,
            "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 123,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 123,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 223,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 3,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 62,
              "era_value": 4.3995,
              "era_rank": 44.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 76,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 149.1,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 135.0,
              "h_rank": 32,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 13,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 46,
              "bb_value": 56.0,
              "bb_rank": 16,
              "k_value": 165.0,
              "k_rank": 16,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.944197,
              "k_per_9_rank": 14,
              "whip_value": 1.279,
              "whip_rank": 39.0,
              "war_value": 1.33,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9911,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9911,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0421,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_OAK@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_PHI@ARI

away

Jesús Luzardo

True

6.2

5/6

4/1

9/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0920245398773005,
      "WHIP": 1.1226993865030674,
      "IP": 163.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.037,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.867,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7593,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9355,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0869,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9151,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.282,
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                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5673,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.6618,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0393,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.281,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7593,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9355,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0869,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 0.9151,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "666200",
            "espn_id": 39667,
            "player_name": "Jesus Luzardo",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 6,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 6,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 13,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 14,
              "era_value": 3.092,
              "era_rank": 14.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 13,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 129,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 163.0,
              "ip_rank": 5,
              "h_value": 133.0,
              "h_rank": 38,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 65,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 95,
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": 27,
              "k_value": 203.0,
              "k_rank": 4,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.20859,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.1226,
              "whip_rank": 19.0,
              "war_value": 5.18,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9355,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9355,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9151,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.0869,
            "adjusted": 10
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 30,
      "Pitches": 127,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_PHI@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_PHI@ARI

home

Eduardo Rodriguez

True

6.0

5.0

-3

5/8

1/3

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5,
      "WHIP": 1.1851851851851851,
      "IP": 162.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1947,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0166,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9543,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 0.9977,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 7,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 516.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 103.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5851,
            "WHIP": 1.0851,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28723,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8617,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2234,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98936,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03191
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 976.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 97.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 162.0,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 119.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 661.0,
            "Pitches": 2574.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.8148,
            "H": 5.1852,
            "BB": 1.9259,
            "SO": 4.4074,
            "HR": 0.5185,
            "BF": 24.4815,
            "Pitches": 95.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1852,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27778,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8642,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32099,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73457,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08642
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.035,
        "predicted_H": 5.578,
        "predicted_BB": 1.629,
        "predicted_SO": 5.407,
        "predicted_HR": 0.455,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9898,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1763
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.035,
          "final": 1.6044,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.578,
          "final": 5.3376,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.629,
          "final": 1.3673,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.407,
          "final": 4.4057,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.455,
          "final": 0.6817,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9898,
          "final": 2.9898,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1763,
          "final": 1.1763,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.0,
        "WHIP": 1.2,
        "K9": 7.2,
        "HR9": 0.75,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8424355819100791,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5252,
        "runs_scored": 626.0,
        "runs_allowed": 622.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0288,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5036,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4748,
        "offense_index": 1.0069,
        "defense_index": 0.9995,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.025
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5652,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 593.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2246,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5217,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2971,
        "offense_index": 1.011,
        "defense_index": 1.0409,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.188
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.163,
        "offense_edge": 0.0069,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.011,
        "defense_strength": -0.0005,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0409,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.993,
        "run_prevention": 1.01,
        "strikeout": 0.9942
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "593958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "593958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 610.0,
            "k_percent": 18.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0943,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3432,
            "whiff_percent": 21.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0144,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3907,
            "regression_edge": -0.9429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5857,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0867
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "593958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 104,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 104,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.31573743838237,
              "release_spin_rate": 2174.324470429921,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 104,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.31573743838237,
                "release_spin_rate": 2174.324470429921,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3157,
              "release_spin_rate": 2174.3245,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0867,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6196,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1947,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0166,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9543,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.9977,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.033,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "593958",
            "espn_id": 32675,
            "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 7,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 7,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 13,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 2.5,
              "era_rank": 6.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 5,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 169,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 162.0,
              "ip_rank": 7,
              "h_value": 140.0,
              "h_rank": 21,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 116,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 95,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 24,
              "k_value": 119.0,
              "k_rank": 63,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.611111,
              "k_per_9_rank": 243,
              "whip_value": 1.1851,
              "whip_rank": 28.0,
              "war_value": 5.16,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0166,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0166,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9977,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9543,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_PHI@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_SD@CIN

away

Randy Vásquez

True

5.0

4.2

-1

2/5

0/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.024390243902439,
      "WHIP": 1.2845528455284554,
      "IP": 123.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.063,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.7777,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0661,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9229,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 1.1293,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 14.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.361,
      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 175,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681190",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 387.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 77.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 0.6429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 163.0,
            "Pitches": 590.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 16.3,
            "Pitches": 59.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2143,
            "WHIP": 0.9524,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7619,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19048,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04762
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 123.0,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 516.0,
            "Pitches": 1971.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.1154,
            "R": 2.2692,
            "H": 4.7692,
            "BB": 1.3077,
            "SO": 2.9231,
            "HR": 0.5769,
            "BF": 19.8462,
            "Pitches": 75.8077
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0244,
            "WHIP": 1.2846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44715,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00813,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27642,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61789,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12195
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.84,
        "predicted_H": 3.692,
        "predicted_BB": 1.08,
        "predicted_SO": 2.643,
        "predicted_HR": 0.358,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3123,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9544
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.84,
          "final": 2.3251,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.692,
          "final": 2.9845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.08,
          "final": 0.6284,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.643,
          "final": 3.6286,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.358,
          "final": 0.2083,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3123,
          "final": 3.3123,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9544,
          "final": 0.9544,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 1,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0.0,
        "OBP": 0.0,
        "SLG": 0.0,
        "OPS": 0.0,
        "games_played": 1,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.0,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.2142857142857144,
        "WHIP": 0.9523809523809523,
        "K9": 3.4285714285714284,
        "HR9": 0.42857142857142855,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8603522485767456,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681190",
      "player_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.529,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 573.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1087,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2609,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1522,
        "offense_index": 0.9541,
        "defense_index": 1.0756,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.038
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.471,
        "runs_scored": 570.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.8188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9493,
        "offense_index": 0.9249,
        "defense_index": 0.9024,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.1,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1605
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1985,
        "offense_edge": -0.0459,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0751,
        "defense_strength": 0.0756,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0976,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0132,
        "run_prevention": 0.9705,
        "strikeout": 1.012
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681190",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681190",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 451.0,
            "k_percent": 14.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.361,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.954,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7985,
            "whiff_percent": 18.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9163,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6479,
            "regression_edge": -1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.085
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681190",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.38308720522035,
              "release_spin_rate": 2598.7911471091766,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.38308720522035,
                "release_spin_rate": 2598.7911471091766,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.3831,
              "release_spin_rate": 2598.7911,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.085,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.6073,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.7777,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0661,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9229,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.1293,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.036,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "681190",
            "espn_id": 4722847,
            "player_name": "Randy Vasquez",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 175,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 175,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 273,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 87,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 88,
              "era_value": 4.0243,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 26,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 102,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 262,
              "ip_value": 123.0,
              "ip_rank": 85,
              "h_value": 124.0,
              "h_rank": 60,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 71,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 78,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 121,
              "k_value": 76.0,
              "k_rank": 151,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.5609756,
              "k_per_9_rank": 47,
              "whip_value": 1.2845,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.98,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0661,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0661,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1293,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9229,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_SD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_SD@CIN

home

Nick Lodolo

True

4.0

6.0

-4

6/5

2/2

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.2405063291139244,
      "WHIP": 1.5443037974683544,
      "IP": 79.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.938,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.8604,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0731,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9583,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.1162,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.376,
      "xwoba": 0.384,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 231,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 407.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 81.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.7812,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35938,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42188,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.32812
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 861.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 86.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0504,
            "WHIP": 1.5755,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56115,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16547,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41007,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84173,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 79.0,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 359.0,
            "Pitches": 1416.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.875,
            "R": 2.875,
            "H": 5.5625,
            "BB": 2.0625,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.9375,
            "BF": 22.4375,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2405,
            "WHIP": 1.5443,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58228,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12658,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81013,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18987
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.827,
        "predicted_H": 5.432,
        "predicted_BB": 1.869,
        "predicted_SO": 3.962,
        "predicted_HR": 0.997,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5271,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.586
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.827,
          "final": 3.8061,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.432,
          "final": 5.6879,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.869,
          "final": 1.928,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.962,
          "final": 3.0779,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.997,
          "final": 0.9984,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5271,
          "final": 5.5271,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.586,
          "final": 1.586,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.0503597122302155,
        "WHIP": 1.5755395683453237,
        "K9": 7.575539568345324,
        "HR9": 1.3597122302158273,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0824895387446114,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "direction": "no_change",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -0.6667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.471,
        "runs_scored": 570.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.8188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9493,
        "offense_index": 0.9249,
        "defense_index": 0.9024,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.1,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1605
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.529,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 573.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1087,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2609,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1522,
        "offense_index": 0.9541,
        "defense_index": 1.0756,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.038
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1985,
        "offense_edge": -0.0751,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0459,
        "defense_strength": -0.0976,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0756,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.991,
        "run_prevention": 1.0123,
        "strikeout": 0.9977
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666157",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666157",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 307.0,
            "k_percent": 17.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.376,
            "xwoba": 0.384,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7568,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7172,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2979,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4236,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4571,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0074
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666157",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.73344991310856,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813049186448,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.73344991310856,
                "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813049186448,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7334,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0074,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0525,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.8604,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0731,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9583,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.1162,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "666157",
            "espn_id": 42433,
            "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 231,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 231,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 428,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 120,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 134,
              "era_value": 5.2405,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 234,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 225,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 79.0,
              "ip_rank": 154,
              "h_value": 89.0,
              "h_rank": 121,
              "er_value": 46.0,
              "er_rank": 113,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 78,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 127,
              "k_value": 64.0,
              "k_rank": 193,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.291139,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.5443,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.62,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0731,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0731,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1162,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9583,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_SD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_SEA@BOS

away

Bryan Woo

True

5.2

6.0

3/5

2/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.362997658079625,
      "WHIP": 1.0960187353629975,
      "IP": 142.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.693,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1471,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9875,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0114,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 1.027,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 163,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 425.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3333,
            "WHIP": 0.9259,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7037,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03704,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 897.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 89.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 1.2562,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 142.1,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 142.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 581.0,
            "Pitches": 2194.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.76,
            "R": 2.92,
            "H": 5.04,
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          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.21077,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.075873081910079,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "693433",
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      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          },
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4638,
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        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.529,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.8986,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4275,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -27.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 138,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5435,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 533.0,
        "run_differential": 85.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.6159,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4783,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8623,
        "offense_index": 1.0027,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2787,
        "offense_edge": -0.1271,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0027,
        "defense_strength": 0.0087,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1563,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9914
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693433",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693433",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 561.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.4569,
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            "whiff_percent": 24.7,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1195,
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            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693433",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.73481894159748,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.1822599774046,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.73481894159748,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.7348,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1607,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.148,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1471,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Bryan Woo",
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            "espn_rank": 163,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 25.0,
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              "era_value": 4.3629,
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              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 34,
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              "l_rank": 25,
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              "hld_rank": 344,
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              "h_rank": 53,
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              "er_rank": 23,
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              "k_rank": 31,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.978923,
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              "whip_value": 1.096,
              "whip_rank": 12.0,
              "war_value": 1.05,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9875,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0114,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_SEA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_SEA@BOS

home

Jedixson Paez

True

3.0

3.2

6/10

2/2

2/3

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0608,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9331,
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      "bb_percent": 18.8,
      "woba": 0.499,
      "xwoba": 0.492,
      "barrel_percent": 23.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.2,
      "whiff_percent": 16.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 656,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
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      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
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            "R": 6.0,
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            "R": 2.0,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.33333,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_BB": 1.613,
        "predicted_SO": 3.082,
        "predicted_HR": 0.745,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.9366,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "games_pitched": 3,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 3,
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      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-03-31T00:00:00"
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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      },
      {
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        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.9277,
            "command_and_miss": -2.03,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.5,
            "barrel_edge": -2.5,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2,
            "whiff_edge": -1.2143,
            "bb_edge": -2.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0273
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "699151",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.37777777777778,
              "release_spin_rate": 2233.6944444444443,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.37777777777778,
                "release_spin_rate": 2233.6944444444443,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3778,
              "release_spin_rate": 2233.6944,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0273,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1948,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.7153,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0608,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9331,
          "walk_factor": 1.0864,
          "homer_factor": 1.1454,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "699151",
            "espn_id": 5332994,
            "player_name": "Jedixson Paez",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 656,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 656,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 691,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 353,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 18.0,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 517,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 564,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 3.0,
              "ip_rank": 750,
              "h_value": 4.0,
              "h_rank": 732,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 611,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 504,
              "bb_value": 3.0,
              "bb_rank": 664,
              "k_value": 0.0,
              "k_rank": 789,
              "k_per_9_value": 0.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 2.3333,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.21,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0389,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0654,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9699,
            "adjusted": 0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 74,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_SEA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_SF@PIT

away

Logan Webb

True

6.0

2.0

-12

6/9

0/2

8/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.71783295711061,
      "WHIP": 1.1038374717832957,
      "IP": 147.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.153,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0488,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9959,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.9701,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 20.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 63,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "657277",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 443.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8256,
            "WHIP": 1.0465,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83721,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87209,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06977
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7093,
            "WHIP": 1.1686,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52326,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92442,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24419,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73256,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10465
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.2,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 127.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 603.0,
            "Pitches": 2232.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.5417,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 5.2917,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.9167,
            "HR": 0.4583,
            "BF": 25.125,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7178,
            "WHIP": 1.1038,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41309,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86005,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24379,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7991,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07449
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.443,
        "predicted_H": 5.141,
        "predicted_BB": 1.462,
        "predicted_SO": 4.803,
        "predicted_HR": 0.543,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8047,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1425
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.443,
          "final": 2.2557,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.141,
          "final": 5.5042,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.462,
          "final": 0.8438,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.803,
          "final": 5.732,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.543,
          "final": 0.3134,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8047,
          "final": 3.8047,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1425,
          "final": 1.1425,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.709302325581396,
        "WHIP": 1.1686046511627908,
        "K9": 6.593023255813954,
        "HR9": 0.9418604651162792,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.033947209817056,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657277",
      "player_name": "Logan Webb",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.413,
        "runs_scored": 567.0,
        "runs_allowed": 637.0,
        "run_differential": -70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5072,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1087,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6159,
        "offense_index": 0.92,
        "defense_index": 0.9675,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1364
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4855,
        "runs_scored": 669.0,
        "runs_allowed": 643.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1884,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8478,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6594,
        "offense_index": 1.0855,
        "defense_index": 0.9585,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0109
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1473,
        "offense_edge": -0.08,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0855,
        "defense_strength": -0.0325,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0415,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9897,
        "run_prevention": 1.0243,
        "strikeout": 0.9887
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657277",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657277",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 558.0,
            "k_percent": 19.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.28,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.5574,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8347,
            "whiff_percent": 20.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3275,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2129,
            "regression_edge": -0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6429,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0622
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657277",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.75348866858918,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.9391366774676,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.75348866858918,
                "release_spin_rate": 2029.9391366774676,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.9391,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0622,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4445,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0488,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9959,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
          "walk_factor": 0.936,
          "homer_factor": 0.9701,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "657277",
            "espn_id": 41216,
            "player_name": "Logan Webb",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 63,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 63,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 315,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 60,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 10,
              "era_value": 3.7178,
              "era_rank": 29.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 58,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 44,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 147.2,
              "ip_rank": 36,
              "h_value": 127.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 51,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 136,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 104,
              "k_value": 118.0,
              "k_rank": 65,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.1918736,
              "k_per_9_rank": 48,
              "whip_value": 1.1038,
              "whip_rank": 15.0,
              "war_value": 2.11,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9959,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9959,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9701,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +7; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_SF@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_SF@PIT

home

Paul Skenes

True

5.1

4.2

-2

2/8

0/3

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.786206896551724,
      "WHIP": 1.1172413793103448,
      "IP": 145.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.37,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5412,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.954,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0623,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 0.9766,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.275,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 28.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 47,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4384,
            "WHIP": 1.3973,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49315,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53425,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06849,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12329
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 889.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 88.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0192,
            "WHIP": 1.3846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55769,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98077,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40385,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09615
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.0,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 175.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 594.0,
            "Pitches": 2441.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2593,
            "R": 2.5556,
            "H": 4.4815,
            "BB": 1.5185,
            "SO": 6.4815,
            "HR": 0.5185,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 90.4074
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7862,
            "WHIP": 1.1172,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28276,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09655
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.607,
        "predicted_H": 4.738,
        "predicted_BB": 2.227,
        "predicted_SO": 5.741,
        "predicted_HR": 0.596,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5069,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3379
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.607,
          "final": 1.9385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.738,
          "final": 3.599,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.227,
          "final": 1.3006,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.741,
          "final": 5.4327,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.596,
          "final": 0.3481,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5069,
          "final": 4.5069,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3379,
          "final": 1.3379,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.019230769230769,
        "WHIP": 1.3846153846153846,
        "K9": 10.557692307692308,
        "HR9": 0.8653846153846154,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0742144280639252,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4855,
        "runs_scored": 669.0,
        "runs_allowed": 643.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1884,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8478,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6594,
        "offense_index": 1.0855,
        "defense_index": 0.9585,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0109
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.413,
        "runs_scored": 567.0,
        "runs_allowed": 637.0,
        "run_differential": -70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5072,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1087,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6159,
        "offense_index": 0.92,
        "defense_index": 0.9675,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1364
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1473,
        "offense_edge": 0.0855,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.08,
        "defense_strength": -0.0415,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0325,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0078,
        "run_prevention": 0.984,
        "strikeout": 1.0108
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694973",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694973",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 572.0,
            "k_percent": 29.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.275,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0007,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9998,
            "whiff_percent": 28.5,
            "swing_percent": 51.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5061,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7686,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4714,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1532
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694973",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.6007202524121,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.096720068865,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.6007202524121,
                "release_spin_rate": 2107.096720068865,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6007,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0967,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1532,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0944,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5412,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.954,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0623,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 0.9766,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694973",
            "espn_id": 4719507,
            "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 47,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 47,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 13,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 40,
              "era_value": 3.7862,
              "era_rank": 30.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 34,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 9,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 145.0,
              "ip_rank": 39,
              "h_value": 121.0,
              "h_rank": 66,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 51,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 95,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 71,
              "k_value": 175.0,
              "k_rank": 10,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.862069,
              "k_per_9_rank": 6,
              "whip_value": 1.1172,
              "whip_rank": 16.0,
              "war_value": 2.6,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9766,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0623,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_SF@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_STL@LAD

away

Michael McGreevy

True

5.2

5.0

-2

6/5

1/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8571428571428568,
      "WHIP": 1.2505854800936766,
      "IP": 142.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.474,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6118,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.052,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9354,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 1.1097,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.32,
      "xwoba": 0.353,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
      "whiff_percent": 19.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 92,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 469.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1266,
            "WHIP": 1.481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56962,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13924,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83544,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18987
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 898.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 89.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0943,
            "WHIP": 1.434,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56604,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11321,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32075,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77358,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15094
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 142.1,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.8005,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0838978460610225,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4928,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 625.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1087,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4203,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.529,
        "offense_index": 0.9883,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5985,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 517.0,
        "run_differential": 153.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1168,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8905,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7737,
        "offense_index": 1.0934,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2561
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3456,
        "offense_edge": -0.0117,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9821,
        "run_prevention": 1.0335,
        "strikeout": 0.9822
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700241",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700241",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 511.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.9605,
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            "whiff_percent": 19.1,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6677,
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            "regression_edge": -0.9429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8714,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1559
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700241",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.08161246517682,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.006727677546,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.08161246517682,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0816,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1559,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.1133,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6118,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.052,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.033,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "700241",
            "espn_id": 4424141,
            "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 92,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 92,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
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              "qs_rank": 18,
              "era_value": 3.8571,
              "era_rank": 32.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 131,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 25,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 142.1,
              "ip_rank": 43,
              "h_value": 140.0,
              "h_rank": 21,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 51,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 28,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
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              "k_value": 98.0,
              "k_rank": 95,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.1967216,
              "k_per_9_rank": 59,
              "whip_value": 1.2505,
              "whip_rank": 34.0,
              "war_value": 1.73,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.052,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
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            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1097,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9354,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_STL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_STL@LAD

home

Eric Lauer

True

5.1

3.0

-7

6/8

2/1

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.784810126582279,
      "WHIP": 1.2626582278481013,
      "IP": 105.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.137,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4454,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0379,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.928,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.0709,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 10.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.4,
      "whiff_percent": 18.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 330,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.93987,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.4769,
          "final": 4.4769,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.2785,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 5.810126582278481,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9671824173531169,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641778",
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      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5985,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 517.0,
        "run_differential": 153.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1168,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8905,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 138,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4928,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 625.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1087,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4203,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.529,
        "offense_index": 0.9883,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -24.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0895
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0934,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0117,
        "defense_strength": 0.1852,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0124,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9623,
        "strikeout": 1.0113
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641778",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641778",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.9324,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.317,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4779,
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641778",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.67996357341568,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.68,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4454,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0379,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Eric Lauer",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
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              "k_per_9_value": 5.9810123,
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              "whip_value": 1.2626,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0709,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_STL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_TOR@CLE

away

Spencer Miles

True

5.0

1.0

-12

-2

3/1

3/0

2/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9160000000000004,
      "WHIP": 1.092,
      "IP": 83.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 42,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.2,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.2,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5061,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.957,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 0.8858,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.26,
      "xwoba": 0.269,
      "barrel_percent": 3.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 18.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 70,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 83.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.916,
      "season_WHIP": 1.092,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.721,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7698,
        "prior_weight": 0.2302
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693686",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 42,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.4,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 15.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.5625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 133.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.1,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 3.8,
            "Pitches": 13.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9286,
            "WHIP": 1.0714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 42,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 83.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 77.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 336.0,
            "Pitches": 1294.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.6429,
            "R": 0.6905,
            "H": 1.6667,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.8333,
            "HR": 0.119,
            "BF": 8.0,
            "Pitches": 30.8095
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.916,
            "WHIP": 1.092,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.324,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.252,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.924,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.495,
        "predicted_H": 1.655,
        "predicted_BB": 0.486,
        "predicted_SO": 1.764,
        "predicted_HR": 0.096,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.0007,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9609
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4473,
      "form_weight": 0.5527,
      "form_reliability": 0.7698,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
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          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 0.495,
          "final": 2.0626,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.655,
          "final": 2.2566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.486,
          "final": 1.6104,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.764,
          "final": 1.8696,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.096,
          "final": 0.0531,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.0007,
          "final": 2.0007,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9609,
          "final": 0.9609,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.1,
        "ER": 2,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.9285714285714288,
        "WHIP": 1.0714285714285716,
        "K9": 5.7857142857142865,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9143043169806131,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.721,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7698,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693686",
      "player_name": "Spencer Miles",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 138,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4928,
        "runs_scored": 548.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3623,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.971,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3333,
        "offense_index": 0.8892,
        "defense_index": 1.0306,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0157
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 557.0,
        "runs_allowed": 559.0,
        "run_differential": -2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0146,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0657,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0803,
        "offense_index": 0.9104,
        "defense_index": 1.0945,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1063
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.122,
        "offense_edge": -0.1108,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0896,
        "defense_strength": 0.0306,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0945,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9996,
        "run_prevention": 0.9887,
        "strikeout": 1.0035
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693686",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693686",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 317.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.26,
            "xwoba": 0.269,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6438,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0096,
            "whiff_percent": 18.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9964,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1207,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.7778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0647
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693686",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 10,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 10,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.01993422348478,
              "release_spin_rate": 2457.7211257707427,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 10,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.01993422348478,
                "release_spin_rate": 2457.7211257707427,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0199,
              "release_spin_rate": 2457.7211,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0647,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4621,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5061,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.957,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693686",
            "espn_id": 4833671,
            "player_name": "Spencer Miles",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 70,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 70,
              "gp_value": 42.0,
              "gp_rank": 144,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 213,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 2.916,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 131,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 314,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 133,
              "hld_value": 4.0,
              "hld_rank": 185,
              "ip_value": 83.1,
              "ip_rank": 144,
              "h_value": 70.0,
              "h_rank": 155,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 202,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 299,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 252,
              "k_value": 77.0,
              "k_rank": 146,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.316,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.092,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.97,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8858,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_TOR@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260901

20260901_TOR@CLE

home

Gavin Williams

True

5.1

7.0

-3

5/2

2/1

7/13

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.1217948717948718,
      "IP": 156.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
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      "last_start_IP": 1.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.108,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9908,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.096,
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      "homer_factor": 1.1378,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 32.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 12.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.6,
      "whiff_percent": 31.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 61,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20260901",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
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            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92647,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48529,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.58824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26471
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 904.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 8.7,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3067,
            "WHIP": 1.0307,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47853,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7546,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27607,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.60123,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22086
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.0,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 204.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 632.0,
            "Pitches": 2519.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5556,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 1.8148,
            "SO": 7.5556,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4074,
            "Pitches": 93.2963
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9808,
            "WHIP": 1.1218,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44231,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3141,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17308
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.714,
        "predicted_H": 4.432,
        "predicted_BB": 1.935,
        "predicted_SO": 7.414,
        "predicted_HR": 1.119,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7548,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2396
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.714,
          "final": 2.833,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.432,
          "final": 4.6683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.935,
          "final": 1.962,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 7.414,
          "final": 7.2418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.119,
          "final": 1.0695,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7548,
          "final": 4.7548,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2396,
          "final": 1.2396,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 87,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 4.306748466257669,
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        "K9": 14.411042944785276,
        "HR9": 1.987730061349693,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9852116555297109,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 557.0,
        "runs_allowed": 559.0,
        "run_differential": -2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0146,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0657,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0803,
        "offense_index": 0.9104,
        "defense_index": 1.0945,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1063
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4928,
        "runs_scored": 548.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3623,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.971,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3333,
        "offense_index": 0.8892,
        "defense_index": 1.0306,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0157
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.122,
        "offense_edge": -0.0896,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1108,
        "defense_strength": 0.0945,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0306,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0121,
        "run_prevention": 0.9667,
        "strikeout": 1.0125
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 593.0,
            "k_percent": 32.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3547,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0648,
            "whiff_percent": 31.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2664,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0586,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.4,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9143,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0606
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.94628314658443,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.2769819363643,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.94628314658443,
                "release_spin_rate": 2281.2769819363643,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9463,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.277,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0606,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4326,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.108,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9908,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.096,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 1.1378,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_id": 4345076,
            "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 61,
            "espn_total_ranked": 841,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 61,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 13,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 62,
              "era_value": 3.9807,
              "era_rank": 35.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 13,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 76,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 344,
              "ip_value": 156.0,
              "ip_rank": 14,
              "h_value": 126.0,
              "h_rank": 53,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 23,
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": 5,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 35,
              "k_value": 204.0,
              "k_rank": 3,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.76923,
              "k_per_9_rank": 5,
              "whip_value": 1.1217,
              "whip_rank": 18.0,
              "war_value": 2.16,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9908,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9908,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1378,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.096,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260901_TOR@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}