Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260831 · dates 20260831 · generated 2026-09-01T06:00:20.266104+00:00

8-4

Winner picks · 66.7%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

10/24

Starter ER within ±1

16/24

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260831	12	12	0	8	4	12	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	12	applied games: 12formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	12	available games: 10
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	12	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	12	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	12	configured window: 10last 10 games: 12observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	12	settled games: 12metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1661.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	7	53.0%	71.4%	-18.5%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	2	55.5%	50.0%	5.5%	overconfident
0.65-0.70	2	67.0%	50.0%	17.0%	overconfident
0.70-0.80	1	74.9%	100.0%	-25.1%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	12	3.1283	3.991	4.7023	66.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	12	3.125	3.9167	4.75	50.0%	-0.0033	0.0477
enhanced_prediction	12	3.4583	4.25	4.75	66.7%	0.33	0.0477
embedded_savant_run_environment	12	3.4167	4.3333	4.6667	66.7%	0.2884	-0.0356
fundamental_edge_target_review	12	3.4167	4.3333	4.6667	66.7%	0.2884	-0.0356
capped_target	12	3.4167	4.3333	4.6667	66.7%	0.2884	-0.0356
simulation_result	12	3.4167	4.3333	4.6667	66.7%	0.2884	-0.0356
published_final	12	3.4167	4.3333	4.6667	66.7%	0.2884	-0.0356

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 12,
  "team_run_mae": 3.4583,
  "total_run_mae": 4.25,
  "margin_mae": 4.75,
  "winner_hits": 8,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6667,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.33,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0477
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
variance_applied	1.0784	-0.137	0.9414	1.2154	4	3	1	0	reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction	1.0	-1.0	0.0	2.0	4	1	1	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "variance_applied",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0784,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.137,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.9414,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.2154,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=8

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	-2.0	2.0	6.0	8	2	2	4	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.2899	-0.6338	0.6561	1.9237	8	5	3	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	8	1	0	7	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 6.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.2899,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.6338,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6561,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.9237,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=12

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	7	5	2	0.7143
[0.550, 0.600)	2	1	1	0.5
[0.600, 1.010)	3	2	1	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 12,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 2,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.5
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.7143
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=12

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260831	12	0.5755	8.75	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 12,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260831",
      "sample_size": 12,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5755,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.75,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=12

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	12	8	4	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 12,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 12,
      "hits": 8,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260831_BAL@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBAL

Published scoreBAL 7 - 4 COL

Final confidence74.9%

Calibrationraw 89.7% → blended 72.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=183

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0438

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.027581639150671-4.673733324074279	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.498484,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.749242,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.250758,
    "away_win_probability": 0.749242
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.498484,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL",
    "confidence": 0.749242,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.896665,
    "sample_size": 183,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5519,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.724282,
    "published_confidence": 0.749242,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0803,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.976,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0438
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.018633242969318873
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.018134617702405112
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01766870820116892
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.0175955689201072
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.017195893868347967
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04537173085176934,
      "1": 0.07730077615453256,
      "2": 0.11375272861298681,
      "3": 0.14458367267751157,
      "4": 0.15872894978803284,
      "5": 0.15051247394243922,
      "6": 0.12327309691331412,
      "7": 0.08720544047284838,
      "8": 0.05328418340226022,
      "9": 0.028121113280342797,
      "10": 0.012818764420970795,
      "11": 0.00504706948299121
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.013349582253145696,
      "1": 0.023460856576679876,
      "2": 0.0378926411989953,
      "3": 0.05624717496535356,
      "4": 0.07673285829797201,
      "5": 0.09620482662949673,
      "6": 0.11085292848975804,
      "7": 0.1173903247907944,
      "8": 0.1142489616835627,
      "9": 0.10218968101357094,
      "10": 0.0840033584111247,
      "11": 0.06346307030132099,
      "12": 0.04406363621672525,
      "13": 0.028117351568103858,
      "14": 0.016489341531541808,
      "15": 0.008887242682909456,
      "16": 0.004402157634261697,
      "17": 0.002004005754682879
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0247,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.976,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0438,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.7492,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7085,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7492,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0438,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0247,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
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      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
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        "median": 11,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 12
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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    {
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    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260831_CHW@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreCHW 4 - 5 HOU

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5164

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.126404037757112-5.148500968125815	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52085,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0136,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0136,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.676,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.22,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5164
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025649096711986445
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02427511724082185
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02387967287971393
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023698798984377878
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023397986025334404
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04560632840243386,
      "1": 0.07768402487962392,
      "2": 0.11424415512936963,
      "3": 0.14505474001701152,
      "4": 0.1590103973564197,
      "5": 0.15049247471287702,
      "6": 0.12297015145771445,
      "7": 0.08675215965803747,
      "8": 0.0528392379452229,
      "9": 0.027786155319997008,
      "10": 0.012615255058779133,
      "11": 0.004944920062513313
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.047635086967163266,
      "1": 0.080991794116437,
      "2": 0.11845833846876157,
      "3": 0.14903930421139275,
      "4": 0.16130452560592207,
      "5": 0.15017680149674717,
      "6": 0.12027343339672392,
      "7": 0.08286041945396316,
      "8": 0.049106061837434135,
      "9": 0.02503419585370859,
      "10": 0.010978493398499257,
      "11": 0.004141545193247075
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1033,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.5164,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5844,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.5164,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.22,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0587,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T23:38:23.722065+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-01T00:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546614,
      "confidence": 0.546614,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546614,
      "confidence": 0.546614,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "default-v1",
          "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 348,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.52085
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.52085,
        "final_confidence": 0.5082,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5082,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.968033,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 348,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5301,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5164,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.508228,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.968033,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.546614,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546614
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.667,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0136,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0136,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -9.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "HOU",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 69,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5036496350364964,
          "runs_scored": 624,
          "runs_allowed": 667,
          "run_differential": -43,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.31386861313868614,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHW",
          "games": 136,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 64,
          "win_pct": 0.5294117647058824,
          "runs_scored": 652,
          "runs_allowed": 608,
          "run_differential": 44,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.3235294117647059,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6374,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0258,
        "quality_edge": -0.5164,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.676,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.676,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.22,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.5164
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2169,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2169,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.5164,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.676,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.008,
          "home_runs": 4.142,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5114
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.025649096711986445
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02427511724082185
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02387967287971393
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.023698798984377878
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.023397986025334404
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04560632840243386,
          "1": 0.07768402487962392,
          "2": 0.11424415512936963,
          "3": 0.14505474001701152,
          "4": 0.1590103973564197,
          "5": 0.15049247471287702,
          "6": 0.12297015145771445,
          "7": 0.08675215965803747,
          "8": 0.0528392379452229,
          "9": 0.027786155319997008,
          "10": 0.012615255058779133,
          "11": 0.004944920062513313
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.047635086967163266,
          "1": 0.080991794116437,
          "2": 0.11845833846876157,
          "3": 0.14903930421139275,
          "4": 0.16130452560592207,
          "5": 0.15017680149674717,
          "6": 0.12027343339672392,
          "7": 0.08286041945396316,
          "8": 0.049106061837434135,
          "9": 0.02503419585370859,
          "10": 0.010978493398499257,
          "11": 0.004141545193247075
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.126404037757112,
      "home_runs": 5.148500968125815,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_DET@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIN

Published scoreDET 4 - 5 MIN

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4842

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9307691961039697-4.903960824609191	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52085,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8699,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.232,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4842
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028607590099151967
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028345980903973837
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02788669988536642
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027631683049348446
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024861642588352478
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.056216960148374795,
      "1": 0.0948545856673162,
      "2": 0.13558564060929215,
      "3": 0.16418499202135647,
      "4": 0.16842928605705065,
      "5": 0.14637474519344093,
      "6": 0.10776533644815992,
      "7": 0.06721348576497795,
      "8": 0.03551388152630853,
      "9": 0.015896600384894797,
      "10": 0.006028021116493208,
      "11": 0.001936465062334547
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05884764853780254,
      "1": 0.09906188917842697,
      "2": 0.14061172266640654,
      "3": 0.1682960343035144,
      "4": 0.16984926296880434,
      "5": 0.1445409422511864,
      "6": 0.10371833276759673,
      "7": 0.06275633941515281,
      "8": 0.03201821451903244,
      "9": 0.01377444304064879,
      "10": 0.004996759141071236,
      "11": 0.0015284112103570837
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0063,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.302,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "DET",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4842,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4842,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.232,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0063,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "enhanced_shadow"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T23:36:14.064319+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-31T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546614,
      "confidence": 0.546614,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": -11.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 72,
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          "runs_scored": 626,
          "runs_allowed": 682,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.40875912408759124,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.8867,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0112,
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        "season_quality_edge": -0.8699,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.2034,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
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        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 4.358,
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      "score_distribution": {
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9307691961039697,
      "home_runs": 4.903960824609191,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_MIA@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreMIA 3 - 4 WAS

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 49.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0497

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.163927831877548-5.842068906566542	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.49585,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0484,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.052,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0497
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030723701791084728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030381138129417114
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0298242232515188
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029491688611230197
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026392982005147184
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062205794888771704,
      "1": 0.10441015102972723,
      "2": 0.1469131971293138,
      "3": 0.1732946287575155,
      "4": 0.17136242530826415,
      "5": 0.14205361962136334,
      "6": 0.09871774233827373,
      "7": 0.057510127553578025,
      "8": 0.02808663129831301,
      "9": 0.011499029326799538,
      "10": 0.00394665274807999
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06517255747801007,
      "1": 0.10910101756242419,
      "2": 0.15230121207090536,
      "3": 0.17729171418275877,
      "4": 0.17210125590938358,
      "5": 0.13931252415624204,
      "6": 0.09403874047282629,
      "7": 0.05293390909997129,
      "8": 0.02484686794680138,
      "9": 0.009725677344621837,
      "10": 0.003174523776055085
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0621,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.122,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0497,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0497,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.052,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0621,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
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        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T22:35:48.579569+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-31T22:45:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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      "confidence": 0.546614,
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        }
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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      "confidence_governor": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
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            "home_margin": 7.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 139,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0056,
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.163927831877548,
      "home_runs": 5.842068906566542,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_MIL@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 6 - 5 CHC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 54.1% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3922

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.080837099993832-3.943877935848644	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
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    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
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  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
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    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.536471,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
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        "home_margin": 1.0
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      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
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        "home_margin": -4.0
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  },
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3922
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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      "home_runs": 5,
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      "winner": "MIL"
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      "winner": "MIL"
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.35,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
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      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
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      "margin_widening_capped": false,
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1125,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
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      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
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          "shrinkage_weight": 0.968033,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.453386,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546614
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -5.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 60,
          "win_pct": 0.5620437956204379,
          "runs_scored": 725,
          "runs_allowed": 598,
          "run_differential": 127,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.927007299270073,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 85,
          "losses": 52,
          "win_pct": 0.6204379562043796,
          "runs_scored": 683,
          "runs_allowed": 506,
          "run_differential": 177,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2919708029197081,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.365,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0584,
        "quality_edge": -0.3922,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.4526,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.4526,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.28,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.3922
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.021269214483738003
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.12110115648097577,
          "4": 0.14196713183311024,
          "5": 0.14647057787236087,
          "6": 0.132995225586988,
          "7": 0.10627834302313355,
          "8": 0.07474403993143679,
          "9": 0.04626274838103674,
          "10": 0.02520051177489832,
          "11": 0.012081207961340976,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.10875202388767133,
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          "12": 0.0059118318342668355,
          "13": 0.0022687346350080246
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.080837099993832,
      "home_runs": 3.943877935848644,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_NYM@TB

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreNYM 3 - 5 TB

Final confidence66.5%

Calibrationraw 77.6% → blended 66.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=203

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7963

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.2139061294754585-5.82878822930322	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.331,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6655,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.6655,
    "away_win_probability": 0.3345
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.331,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 3 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.6655,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.775884,
    "sample_size": 203,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5567,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.666292,
    "published_confidence": 0.6655,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0204,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.38,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7963
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023897724279938765
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02359555204087538
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023418913292576594
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023122795328240145
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021628281221217387
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026874503996356675,
      "1": 0.046571343151976835,
      "2": 0.07211674682372583,
      "3": 0.09979126998187757,
      "4": 0.12339229160032816,
      "5": 0.13633977350182006,
      "6": 0.13461583970168728,
      "7": 0.11877056407097787,
      "8": 0.09363981168086577,
      "9": 0.06597073189425126,
      "10": 0.041531836057046176,
      "11": 0.023364151724213213,
      "12": 0.011745133641754004,
      "13": 0.0052760021731192396
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06365318114282968,
      "1": 0.10670184997312199,
      "2": 0.14955808795082332,
      "3": 0.17528065117124275,
      "4": 0.17176875603555236,
      "5": 0.14074743264894327,
      "6": 0.0964323858115515,
      "7": 0.05524480696179803,
      "8": 0.026463429646769558,
      "9": 0.010599537459663175,
      "10": 0.003549881197704289
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0457,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.38,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7963,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.6655,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.587,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6655,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7963,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.38,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0457,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T20:45:29.210438+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-31T22:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.6655,
      "confidence": 0.6655,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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      }
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    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.6655,
      "confidence": 0.6655,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "default-v1",
          "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 136,
          "wins": 82,
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          "runs_scored": 616,
          "runs_allowed": 562,
          "run_differential": 54,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.39705882352941174,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "runs_scored": 562,
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          "run_differential": -53,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.38686131386861317,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.7839,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1577,
        "quality_edge": 0.7963,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.0204,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.38,
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          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.3344,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
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          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 6.769,
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.2139061294754585,
      "home_runs": 5.82878822930322,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_NYY@LAA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 5 - 4 LAA

Final confidence55.1%

Calibrationraw 62.3% → blended 58.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=315

H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.3728

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.984330409637457-4.437957822057722	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.101744,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.550872,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.449128,
    "away_win_probability": 0.550872
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.101744,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.550871514,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.623308,
    "sample_size": 315,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5492,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.586254,
    "published_confidence": 0.550872,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0687,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0687,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.7372,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.696,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.3728
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023759591564593934
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022529515884232323
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022494924127844363
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.022201449683153518
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021395374440848807
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.051776978316316453,
      "1": 0.08770864129879474,
      "2": 0.1268650149283232,
      "3": 0.15668779760725737,
      "4": 0.16524270177104372,
      "5": 0.14880009483317114,
      "6": 0.11441367579846937,
      "7": 0.07511842590755752,
      "8": 0.042112287139916174,
      "9": 0.02015881450289312,
      "10": 0.008239767512209476,
      "11": 0.0028758003840479306
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0321235652975285,
      "1": 0.055389376896240454,
      "2": 0.08449230216593112,
      "3": 0.1140238582283131,
      "4": 0.13613263331298459,
      "5": 0.14378602691642411,
      "6": 0.1343566126987884,
      "7": 0.11106809768902194,
      "8": 0.0812283339543396,
      "9": 0.052554956679127955,
      "10": 0.030082071827514396,
      "11": 0.015233150402204644,
      "12": 0.006824324049311278,
      "13": 0.002704689882269927
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0456,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.696,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.3728,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5509,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6576,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5509,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.3728,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.696,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0456,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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        "range": 8
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    }
  ]
}

20260831_OAK@TEX

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTEX

Published scoreOAK 3 - 5 TEX

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8297

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.774801162515579-5.032667751077222	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.48905109489051096,
          "runs_scored": 554,
          "runs_allowed": 605,
          "run_differential": -51,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3722627737226277,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "OAK",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 53,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.38686131386861317,
          "runs_scored": 596,
          "runs_allowed": 787,
          "run_differential": -191,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.3941605839416058,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0219,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1022,
        "quality_edge": 0.8297,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1752,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1752,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.188,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.8297
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3485,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3485,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.8297,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1752,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.397,
          "home_runs": 5.67,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6932
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.022150636078451726
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.022100718028818918
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02190795684024484
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.021858585685708625
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01962198192459631
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.037373076954548716,
          "1": 0.06412890199760642,
          "2": 0.09640978117113683,
          "3": 0.12698743008506944,
          "4": 0.14654557707101665,
          "5": 0.14816889453806828,
          "6": 0.13125435134757585,
          "7": 0.10186915963937225,
          "8": 0.0692698234950146,
          "9": 0.04126841437453921,
          "10": 0.02154089919246787,
          "11": 0.009851043074843961,
          "12": 0.003947052944545781,
          "13": 0.001385594114193953
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0390357625228617,
          "1": 0.06688321728788058,
          "2": 0.10010668213851862,
          "3": 0.1308881721450723,
          "4": 0.1494958584088017,
          "5": 0.14915895875257876,
          "6": 0.13000526713205277,
          "7": 0.09898376670052582,
          "8": 0.06583524072832649,
          "9": 0.038251132939143014,
          "10": 0.01941429395204022,
          "11": 0.008607763426970153,
          "12": 0.0033338838652277707
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.774801162515579,
      "home_runs": 5.032667751077222,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_PHI@ARI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 5 - 4 ARI

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3008

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.602843230722022-4.853866941665452	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.053886,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526943,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.473057,
    "away_win_probability": 0.526943
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.053886,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.526942892,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.534516,
    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.533058,
    "published_confidence": 0.526943,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2323,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.428,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3008
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0265833619851082
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02500185051002798
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024663183763224676
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024619047131147025
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02419111769246428
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05046775629490992,
      "1": 0.08559076602706873,
      "2": 0.12423618524950844,
      "3": 0.15433967460883405,
      "4": 0.16410255061499673,
      "5": 0.14933491549281191,
      "6": 0.11630962837183481,
      "7": 0.07753151207085396,
      "8": 0.04423327731213489,
      "9": 0.021598732242148245,
      "10": 0.009026422991487608,
      "11": 0.0032285787234107
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.048289745781083276,
      "1": 0.08205668730986306,
      "2": 0.11980463205552587,
      "3": 0.15029128840957087,
      "4": 0.16199237541088435,
      "5": 0.1500223307857421,
      "6": 0.11937621684504926,
      "7": 0.08161693528085996,
      "8": 0.047944999980766165,
      "9": 0.024199529985789014,
      "10": 0.010494726078352265,
      "11": 0.003910532076513716
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1097,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3113,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3008,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5269,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6187,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5269,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3008,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.428,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1097,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "enhanced_shadow"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-01T01:35:50.749448+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-01T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.453386,
      "confidence": 0.546614,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "predicted_score": {
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "default-v1",
          "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "runs_scored": 625,
          "runs_allowed": 620,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.1827,
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        "season_quality_edge": -0.2323,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.602843230722022,
      "home_runs": 4.853866941665452,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_SD@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreSD 6 - 4 CIN

Final confidence67.4%

Calibrationraw 80.7% → blended 69.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.7% · weight 50.0% · n=111

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6951

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.793621487145934-3.3402609467933946	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.347006,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.673503,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.326497,
    "away_win_probability": 0.673503
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.347006,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 6 - 4 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.673503,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.806996,
    "sample_size": 111,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5766,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.691798,
    "published_confidence": 0.673503,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0205,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.938,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.244,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6951
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02226352213390304
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.022063007421252667
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021484992655747544
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021291489709414437
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.020797304878197472
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05887013984465986,
      "1": 0.0990977740029935,
      "2": 0.14065424392472767,
      "3": 0.16833014268259894,
      "4": 0.16985997356856802,
      "5": 0.1445241162614951,
      "6": 0.10368351271093282,
      "7": 0.06271900961028108,
      "8": 0.031989598623114374,
      "9": 0.01375746763413221,
      "10": 0.004988710684488505,
      "11": 0.0015253104520080057
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022339256540643546,
      "1": 0.03888255139577179,
      "2": 0.061009198355784555,
      "3": 0.08629594856907762,
      "4": 0.11003732390417367,
      "5": 0.12648649475430782,
      "6": 0.13106985516464736,
      "7": 0.12243793779823087,
      "8": 0.10310594748920517,
      "9": 0.07827191392313995,
      "10": 0.053565197913443656,
      "11": 0.033045627186881324,
      "12": 0.018378066073371706,
      "13": 0.009213828892035128,
      "14": 0.004164232809720804,
      "15": 0.0016966192295649212
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 6 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 6 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0053,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3607,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6951,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.6735,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.581,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6735,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6951,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.244,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0053,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_SEA@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreSEA 2 - 3 BOS

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 58.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=275

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9569

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6626194446511215-5.519012912375697	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.120372,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.560186,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.560186,
    "away_win_probability": 0.439814
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.120372,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 3-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 2 - 3 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5601864175,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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        "away": {
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          "games": 137,
          "wins": 64,
          "losses": 73,
          "win_pct": 0.46715328467153283,
          "runs_scored": 530,
          "runs_allowed": 602,
          "run_differential": -72,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5255474452554745,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.1387,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.073,
        "quality_edge": 0.9569,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.2482,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.2482,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.416,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.9569
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.4019,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.4019,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.9569,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.2482,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 0.742,
          "home_runs": 4.125,
          "home_win_probability": 0.7876
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.0469260779772909
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.04290673534566564
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.04174217246953918
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 1,
            "probability": 0.040964848553026026
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03928980866583976
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07922313320229539,
          "1": 0.1309775290978514,
          "2": 0.17612198670597096,
          "3": 0.19262043628109937,
          "4": 0.17134173191065635,
          "5": 0.12396410420170052,
          "6": 0.07294587603015129,
          "7": 0.03491222644869309,
          "8": 0.013590215746392954,
          "9": 0.00430276037518888
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.13569656017605503,
          "1": 0.21267135172118623,
          "2": 0.2436194148621366,
          "3": 0.2039752864462545,
          "4": 0.12482626020461932,
          "5": 0.05583379123792994,
          "6": 0.018253705067732637,
          "7": 0.004361819518602858,
          "8": 0.0007618107654828837
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6626194446511215,
      "home_runs": 5.519012912375697,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260831_SF@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scoreSF 4 - 5 ATL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 48.3% → blended 50.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.2284

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.846071458174702-4.6063563730195165	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 5 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.482805,
    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.507202,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.6788,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.392,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.2284
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02548648416875394
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024206136956811015
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023816014702625087
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023481050389928287
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023186180487091226
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045173519382161735,
      "1": 0.07697684799046063,
      "2": 0.11333685594277304,
      "3": 0.1441839893927591,
      "4": 0.15848849986707528,
      "5": 0.15052662063782465,
      "6": 0.12352751611283318,
      "7": 0.0875888744962312,
      "8": 0.05366226786646994,
      "9": 0.02840690637339768,
      "10": 0.012993127404730015,
      "11": 0.0051349745332836035
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04717838296670169,
      "1": 0.08024818235455475,
      "2": 0.11751521759853557,
      "3": 0.1481561779537437,
      "4": 0.1608096750876532,
      "5": 0.15026967081270654,
      "6": 0.12089191232820677,
      "7": 0.08373170061452834,
      "8": 0.049928593067118894,
      "9": 0.025631586991270012,
      "10": 0.011328395863425694,
      "11": 0.004310504361554486
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0832,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "SF",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2284,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.564,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2284,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.392,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0832,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-31T21:36:06.111852+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-31T22:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546614,
      "confidence": 0.546614,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546614,
      "confidence": 0.546614,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "default-v1",
          "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.482805,
        "sample_size": 348,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.507202
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.507202,
        "final_confidence": 0.5082,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5082,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.968033,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 348,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5301,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.2284,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.508228,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.968033,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.546614,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546614
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -11.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.2,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 82,
          "losses": 55,
          "win_pct": 0.5985401459854015,
          "runs_scored": 636,
          "runs_allowed": 519,
          "run_differential": 117,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8540145985401459,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SF",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 56,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.40875912408759124,
          "runs_scored": 560,
          "runs_allowed": 634,
          "run_differential": -74,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5401459854014599,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.3942,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1898,
        "quality_edge": 1.2284,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.6788,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.6788,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.392,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.2284
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.5159,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.5159,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.2284,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.6788,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.291,
          "home_runs": 4.904,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6372
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02548648416875394
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.024206136956811015
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.023816014702625087
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.045173519382161735,
          "1": 0.07697684799046063,
          "2": 0.11333685594277304,
          "3": 0.1441839893927591,
          "4": 0.15848849986707528,
          "5": 0.15052662063782465,
          "6": 0.12352751611283318,
          "7": 0.0875888744962312,
          "8": 0.05366226786646994,
          "9": 0.02840690637339768,
          "10": 0.012993127404730015,
          "11": 0.0051349745332836035
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04717838296670169,
          "1": 0.08024818235455475,
          "2": 0.11751521759853557,
          "3": 0.1481561779537437,
          "4": 0.1608096750876532,
          "5": 0.15026967081270654,
          "6": 0.12089191232820677,
          "7": 0.08373170061452834,
          "8": 0.049928593067118894,
          "9": 0.025631586991270012,
          "10": 0.011328395863425694,
          "11": 0.004310504361554486
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.846071458174702,
      "home_runs": 4.6063563730195165,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260831	20260831_BAL@COL	BAL	74.9%	89.7%	55.2%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	2-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.896665, "sample_size": 183, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5519, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.724282, "published_confidence": 0.749242, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0803, "recent_quality_edge": -0.976, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0438 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.018633242969318873 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.018134617702405112 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01766870820116892 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.0175955689201072 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.017195893868347967 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04537173085176934, "1": 0.07730077615453256, "2": 0.11375272861298681, "3": 0.14458367267751157, "4": 0.15872894978803284, "5": 0.15051247394243922, "6": 0.12327309691331412, "7": 0.08720544047284838, "8": 0.05328418340226022, "9": 0.028121113280342797, "10": 0.012818764420970795, "11": 0.00504706948299121 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.013349582253145696, "1": 0.023460856576679876, "2": 0.0378926411989953, "3": 0.05624717496535356, "4": 0.07673285829797201, "5": 0.09620482662949673, "6": 0.11085292848975804, "7": 0.1173903247907944, "8": 0.1142489616835627, "9": 0.10218968101357094, "10": 0.0840033584111247, "11": 0.06346307030132099, "12": 0.04406363621672525, "13": 0.028117351568103858, "14": 0.016489341531541808, "15": 0.008887242682909456, "16": 0.004402157634261697, "17": 0.002004005754682879 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 7 - 4 COL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0247, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.976, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0438, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_CHW@HOU	HOU	53.0%	51.0%	53.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-6	hit	Variance Applied (-0.0221)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52085, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.667, "home_run_delta": -0.0136, "away_run_delta": 0.0136, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.676, "recent_quality_edge": -0.22, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5164 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025649096711986445 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02427511724082185 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02387967287971393 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023698798984377878 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023397986025334404 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04560632840243386, "1": 0.07768402487962392, "2": 0.11424415512936963, "3": 0.14505474001701152, "4": 0.1590103973564197, "5": 0.15049247471287702, "6": 0.12297015145771445, "7": 0.08675215965803747, "8": 0.0528392379452229, "9": 0.027786155319997008, "10": 0.012615255058779133, "11": 0.004944920062513313 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.047635086967163266, "1": 0.080991794116437, "2": 0.11845833846876157, "3": 0.14903930421139275, "4": 0.16130452560592207, "5": 0.15017680149674717, "6": 0.12027343339672392, "7": 0.08286041945396316, "8": 0.049106061837434135, "9": 0.02503419585370859, "10": 0.010978493398499257, "11": 0.004141545193247075 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1033, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.5164, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_DET@MIN	MIN	53.0%	51.0%	53.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-11	hit	Variance Applied (0.0268)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52085, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8699, "recent_quality_edge": 0.232, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4842 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028607590099151967 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028345980903973837 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02788669988536642 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027631683049348446 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024861642588352478 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.056216960148374795, "1": 0.0948545856673162, "2": 0.13558564060929215, "3": 0.16418499202135647, "4": 0.16842928605705065, "5": 0.14637474519344093, "6": 0.10776533644815992, "7": 0.06721348576497795, "8": 0.03551388152630853, "9": 0.015896600384894797, "10": 0.006028021116493208, "11": 0.001936465062334547 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05884764853780254, "1": 0.09906188917842697, "2": 0.14061172266640654, "3": 0.1682960343035144, "4": 0.16984926296880434, "5": 0.1445409422511864, "6": 0.10371833276759673, "7": 0.06275633941515281, "8": 0.03201821451903244, "9": 0.01377444304064879, "10": 0.004996759141071236, "11": 0.0015284112103570837 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0063, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.302, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4842, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_MIA@WAS	WAS	53.0%	46.0%	53.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.49585, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0484, "recent_quality_edge": -0.052, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0497 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030723701791084728 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030381138129417114 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0298242232515188 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029491688611230197 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.026392982005147184 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.062205794888771704, "1": 0.10441015102972723, "2": 0.1469131971293138, "3": 0.1732946287575155, "4": 0.17136242530826415, "5": 0.14205361962136334, "6": 0.09871774233827373, "7": 0.057510127553578025, "8": 0.02808663129831301, "9": 0.011499029326799538, "10": 0.00394665274807999 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06517255747801007, "1": 0.10910101756242419, "2": 0.15230121207090536, "3": 0.17729171418275877, "4": 0.17210125590938358, "5": 0.13931252415624204, "6": 0.09403874047282629, "7": 0.05293390909997129, "8": 0.02484686794680138, "9": 0.009725677344621837, "10": 0.003174523776055085 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0621, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.122, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "MIA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0497, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_MIL@CHC	MIL	53.0%	54.1%	53.2%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	3-17	miss	Variance Applied (-0.137)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.541342, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.536471, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.4526, "recent_quality_edge": -0.28, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3922 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021269214483738003 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02061526226264257 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020372092855562473 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01974572391366086 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019594558512722154 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03492755217629728, "1": 0.060067348462045575, "2": 0.09091422513392214, "3": 0.12110115648097577, "4": 0.14196713183311024, "5": 0.14647057787236087, "6": 0.132995225586988, "7": 0.10627834302313355, "8": 0.07474403993143679, "9": 0.04626274838103674, "10": 0.02520051177489832, "11": 0.012081207961340976, "12": 0.005097232324996353, "13": 0.0018926990574573508 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.033504590851133755, "1": 0.05769619991102804, "2": 0.08767147818356302, "3": 0.11755407173396094, "4": 0.13908658756924797, "5": 0.14521151478130082, "6": 0.13377811979275098, "7": 0.10875202388767133, "8": 0.07801135769471512, "9": 0.04937948462914064, "10": 0.02758058653073007, "11": 0.013593417965482585, "12": 0.0059118318342668355, "13": 0.0022687346350080246 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 CHC", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 CHC", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1125, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.35, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3922, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_NYM@TB	TB	66.5%	77.6%	55.7%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	3-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.775884, "sample_size": 203, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5567, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.666292, "published_confidence": 0.6655, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0204, "recent_quality_edge": 0.38, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7963 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023897724279938765 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02359555204087538 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023418913292576594 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023122795328240145 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021628281221217387 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.026874503996356675, "1": 0.046571343151976835, "2": 0.07211674682372583, "3": 0.09979126998187757, "4": 0.12339229160032816, "5": 0.13633977350182006, "6": 0.13461583970168728, "7": 0.11877056407097787, "8": 0.09363981168086577, "9": 0.06597073189425126, "10": 0.041531836057046176, "11": 0.023364151724213213, "12": 0.011745133641754004, "13": 0.0052760021731192396 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06365318114282968, "1": 0.10670184997312199, "2": 0.14955808795082332, "3": 0.17528065117124275, "4": 0.17176875603555236, "5": 0.14074743264894327, "6": 0.0964323858115515, "7": 0.05524480696179803, "8": 0.026463429646769558, "9": 0.010599537459663175, "10": 0.003549881197704289 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0457, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.38, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7963, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_NYY@LAA	NYY	55.1%	62.3%	54.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-10	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.623308, "sample_size": 315, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5492, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.586254, "published_confidence": 0.550872, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": 2.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0687, "away_run_delta": -0.0687, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.7372, "recent_quality_edge": -0.696, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.3728 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023759591564593934 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022529515884232323 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022494924127844363 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.022201449683153518 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021395374440848807 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.051776978316316453, "1": 0.08770864129879474, "2": 0.1268650149283232, "3": 0.15668779760725737, "4": 0.16524270177104372, "5": 0.14880009483317114, "6": 0.11441367579846937, "7": 0.07511842590755752, "8": 0.042112287139916174, "9": 0.02015881450289312, "10": 0.008239767512209476, "11": 0.0028758003840479306 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0321235652975285, "1": 0.055389376896240454, "2": 0.08449230216593112, "3": 0.1140238582283131, "4": 0.13613263331298459, "5": 0.14378602691642411, "6": 0.1343566126987884, "7": 0.11106809768902194, "8": 0.0812283339543396, "9": 0.052554956679127955, "10": 0.030082071827514396, "11": 0.015233150402204644, "12": 0.006824324049311278, "13": 0.002704689882269927 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 LAA", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 LAA", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0456, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.696, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.3728, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_OAK@TEX	TEX	53.0%	51.0%	53.2%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	1-8	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52085, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.1752, "recent_quality_edge": 0.188, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8297 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022150636078451726 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022100718028818918 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02190795684024484 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021858585685708625 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01962198192459631 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.037373076954548716, "1": 0.06412890199760642, "2": 0.09640978117113683, "3": 0.12698743008506944, "4": 0.14654557707101665, "5": 0.14816889453806828, "6": 0.13125435134757585, "7": 0.10186915963937225, "8": 0.0692698234950146, "9": 0.04126841437453921, "10": 0.02154089919246787, "11": 0.009851043074843961, "12": 0.003947052944545781, "13": 0.001385594114193953 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0390357625228617, "1": 0.06688321728788058, "2": 0.10010668213851862, "3": 0.1308881721450723, "4": 0.1494958584088017, "5": 0.14915895875257876, "6": 0.13000526713205277, "7": 0.09898376670052582, "8": 0.06583524072832649, "9": 0.038251132939143014, "10": 0.01941429395204022, "11": 0.008607763426970153, "12": 0.0033338838652277707 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0056, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.118, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8297, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_PHI@ARI	PHI	52.7%	53.5%	53.2%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	2-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.534516, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.533058, "published_confidence": 0.526943, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.333, "home_run_delta": 0.0068, "away_run_delta": -0.0068, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2323, "recent_quality_edge": -0.428, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3008 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0265833619851082 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02500185051002798 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024663183763224676 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024619047131147025 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02419111769246428 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05046775629490992, "1": 0.08559076602706873, "2": 0.12423618524950844, "3": 0.15433967460883405, "4": 0.16410255061499673, "5": 0.14933491549281191, "6": 0.11630962837183481, "7": 0.07753151207085396, "8": 0.04423327731213489, "9": 0.021598732242148245, "10": 0.009026422991487608, "11": 0.0032285787234107 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.048289745781083276, "1": 0.08205668730986306, "2": 0.11980463205552587, "3": 0.15029128840957087, "4": 0.16199237541088435, "5": 0.1500223307857421, "6": 0.11937621684504926, "7": 0.08161693528085996, "8": 0.047944999980766165, "9": 0.024199529985789014, "10": 0.010494726078352265, "11": 0.003910532076513716 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1097, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3113, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3008, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_SD@CIN	SD	67.4%	80.7%	57.7%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	5-0	hit	Variance Applied (0.5466)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.806996, "sample_size": 111, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5766, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.691798, "published_confidence": 0.673503, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0205, "away_run_delta": 0.0205, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.938, "recent_quality_edge": -0.244, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6951 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02226352213390304 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.022063007421252667 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021484992655747544 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021291489709414437 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.020797304878197472 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05887013984465986, "1": 0.0990977740029935, "2": 0.14065424392472767, "3": 0.16833014268259894, "4": 0.16985997356856802, "5": 0.1445241162614951, "6": 0.10368351271093282, "7": 0.06271900961028108, "8": 0.031989598623114374, "9": 0.01375746763413221, "10": 0.004988710684488505, "11": 0.0015253104520080057 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.022339256540643546, "1": 0.03888255139577179, "2": 0.061009198355784555, "3": 0.08629594856907762, "4": 0.11003732390417367, "5": 0.12648649475430782, "6": 0.13106985516464736, "7": 0.12243793779823087, "8": 0.10310594748920517, "9": 0.07827191392313995, "10": 0.053565197913443656, "11": 0.033045627186881324, "12": 0.018378066073371706, "13": 0.009213828892035128, "14": 0.004164232809720804, "15": 0.0016966192295649212 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 6 - 4 CIN", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 6 - 4 CIN", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0053, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3607, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6951, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_SEA@BOS	BOS	56.0%	61.0%	56.7%	50.0%	2.0-3.0	8-9	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 275, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5673, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.58865, "published_confidence": 0.560186, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0409, "away_run_delta": -0.0409, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2482, "recent_quality_edge": 0.416, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9569 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.0469260779772909 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.04290673534566564 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.04174217246953918 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.040964848553026026 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03928980866583976 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07922313320229539, "1": 0.1309775290978514, "2": 0.17612198670597096, "3": 0.19262043628109937, "4": 0.17134173191065635, "5": 0.12396410420170052, "6": 0.07294587603015129, "7": 0.03491222644869309, "8": 0.013590215746392954, "9": 0.00430276037518888 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.13569656017605503, "1": 0.21267135172118623, "2": 0.2436194148621366, "3": 0.2039752864462545, "4": 0.12482626020461932, "5": 0.05583379123792994, "6": 0.018253705067732637, "7": 0.004361819518602858, "8": 0.0007618107654828837 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SEA 2 - 3 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SEA 2 - 3 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0158, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.5327, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9569, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260831	20260831_SF@ATL	ATL	53.0%	48.3%	53.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	7-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.2397)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.482805, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5316, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.507202, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.6788, "recent_quality_edge": 0.392, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.2284 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02548648416875394 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024206136956811015 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023816014702625087 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023481050389928287 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023186180487091226 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.045173519382161735, "1": 0.07697684799046063, "2": 0.11333685594277304, "3": 0.1441839893927591, "4": 0.15848849986707528, "5": 0.15052662063782465, "6": 0.12352751611283318, "7": 0.0875888744962312, "8": 0.05366226786646994, "9": 0.02840690637339768, "10": 0.012993127404730015, "11": 0.0051349745332836035 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04717838296670169, "1": 0.08024818235455475, "2": 0.11751521759853557, "3": 0.1481561779537437, "4": 0.1608096750876532, "5": 0.15026967081270654, "6": 0.12089191232820677, "7": 0.08373170061452834, "8": 0.049928593067118894, "9": 0.025631586991270012, "10": 0.011328395863425694, "11": 0.004310504361554486 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0832, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "SF", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2284, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.1667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.6667 }
R	{ "mae": 2.4167, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.4167 }
ER	{ "mae": 2.3333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3333 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.4583, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2083 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.25, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.6667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.9167, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0833 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.5833, "mae_innings": 0.8611, "bias_outs": 0.0 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260831

20260831_BAL@COL

away

Cade Povich

True

4.2

5.0

-1

1/5

3/3

6/4

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.447058823529412,
      "WHIP": 1.411764705882353,
      "IP": 28.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.178,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0151,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9843,
      "walk_factor": 0.9928,
      "homer_factor": 1.0311,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.351,
      "xwoba": 0.342,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 286,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700249",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 366.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 73.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.4559,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30882,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 453.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 75.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4471,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74118,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 453.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 75.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4471,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74118,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.396,
        "predicted_H": 4.955,
        "predicted_BB": 1.587,
        "predicted_SO": 4.093,
        "predicted_HR": 0.761,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.62,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4019
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 1.4019,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 6,
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      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-09T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700249",
      "player_name": "Cade Povich",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4964,
        "runs_scored": 626.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": -18.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1314,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5693,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7007,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 137,
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        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.3796,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 786.0,
        "run_differential": -142.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0365,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7007,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7372,
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        "defense_index": 0.779,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -20.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3349
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3857,
        "offense_edge": 0.0224,
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        "defense_strength": -0.0493,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0119,
        "run_prevention": 0.9939,
        "strikeout": 1.0074
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700249",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700249",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.9742,
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            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8571,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1529
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700249",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.13418334175628,
              "release_spin_rate": 2348.0338622360287,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.13418334175628,
                "release_spin_rate": 2348.0338622360287,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.1342,
              "release_spin_rate": 2348.0339,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1529,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0923,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.178,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0151,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9843,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "700249",
            "espn_id": 5085743,
            "player_name": "Cade Povich",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 286,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 286,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 589,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 210,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 4.447,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 297,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 409,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 28.1,
              "ip_rank": 432,
              "h_value": 30.0,
              "h_rank": 396,
              "er_value": 14.0,
              "er_rank": 417,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 298,
              "bb_value": 10.0,
              "bb_rank": 466,
              "k_value": 21.0,
              "k_rank": 462,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.6705885,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.4117,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0068,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0068,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9968,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9929,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_BAL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_BAL@COL

home

Tanner Gordon

True

5.0

-1

2/3

4/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.378486055776892,
      "WHIP": 1.4342629482071712,
      "IP": 83.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.048,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2436,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0207,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.964,
      "walk_factor": 0.9,
      "homer_factor": 1.0801,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.1,
      "woba": 0.375,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 226,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 341.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 3.2,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2078,
            "WHIP": 1.2468,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46753,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16883,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.07792,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62338,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3448,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14483,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70345,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.59761,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25498,
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.478,
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5775,
          "final": 4.5775,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3239,
          "final": 1.3239,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ERA": 4.655172413793104,
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        "K9": 6.331034482758621,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0306180712320754,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 19.0,
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          "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "685299",
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      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 137,
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        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.3796,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 786.0,
        "run_differential": -142.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0365,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7372,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -20.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 137,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4964,
        "runs_scored": 626.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": -18.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1314,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5693,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7007,
        "offense_index": 1.0224,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 13.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0508
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0518,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0224,
        "defense_strength": -0.221,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.977,
        "run_prevention": 1.045,
        "strikeout": 0.9866
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "685299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "685299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.375,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.312,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6401,
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
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            "bb_edge": 1.25,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "685299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 51,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 51,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.68522008751086,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 51,
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                "release_speed": 88.68522008751086,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6852,
              "release_spin_rate": 2169.6933,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -0.4719,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2436,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0207,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
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              "ip_rank": 143,
              "h_value": 105.0,
              "h_rank": 97,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 91,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 56,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 364,
              "k_value": 69.0,
              "k_rank": 168,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.422311,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.4342,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.64,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0207,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0207,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0801,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_BAL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_CHW@HOU

away

Anthony Kay

True

5.1

4.2

-2

4/6

0/2

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3409090909090908,
      "IP": 132.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 69,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
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            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
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            "HR": 0.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4941,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.38824,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21176,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74118,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 850.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6346,
            "WHIP": 1.2115,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40385,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30769,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82692,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13462
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
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            "IP": 132.0,
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            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 108.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 588.0,
            "Pitches": 2345.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2222,
            "R": 2.3704,
            "H": 4.8148,
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            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.7778,
            "Pitches": 86.8519
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0909,
            "WHIP": 1.3409,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98485,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35606,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.277,
        "predicted_H": 5.335,
        "predicted_BB": 1.563,
        "predicted_SO": 4.379,
        "predicted_HR": 0.753,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7931,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2765
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.277,
          "final": 2.1618,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.335,
          "final": 4.7796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.563,
          "final": 0.9128,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.379,
          "final": 4.2213,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.753,
          "final": 0.4398,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7931,
          "final": 3.7931,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2765,
          "final": 1.2765,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.6346153846153846,
        "WHIP": 1.2115384615384615,
        "K9": 7.4423076923076925,
        "HR9": 1.2115384615384615,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9124731773328711,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "games": 136,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5294,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
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        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3235,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7941,
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        "offense_index": 1.073,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1354,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "primary_pitch": {
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                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.07512309635388,
                "release_spin_rate": 2281.5022496307865,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0751,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.5022,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0118,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0841,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3368,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0286,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.058,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641743",
            "espn_id": 40947,
            "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 69,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 69,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 236,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 86,
              "era_value": 4.0909,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 32,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 101,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 132.0,
              "ip_rank": 59,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 40,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 58,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 43,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 41,
              "k_value": 108.0,
              "k_rank": 79,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.363636,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.3409,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.03,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0286,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0286,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.058,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9686,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_CHW@HOU

home

Peter Lambert

True

5.1

4.2

-2

3/3

3/5

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.65625,
      "WHIP": 1.2265625,
      "IP": 128.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.565,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2293,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9805,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
      "walk_factor": 1.006,
      "homer_factor": 0.9625,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.292,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 38,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.12,
            "WHIP": 1.56,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 937.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 93.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37267,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06211,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0559
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.0,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 106.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 542.0,
            "Pitches": 2166.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2609,
            "R": 2.3478,
            "H": 4.6087,
            "BB": 2.2174,
            "SO": 5.4348,
            "HR": 0.5652,
            "BF": 23.5652,
            "Pitches": 94.1739
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6562,
            "WHIP": 1.2266,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82812,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39844,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97656,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10156
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.793,
        "predicted_H": 5.115,
        "predicted_BB": 2.191,
        "predicted_SO": 5.281,
        "predicted_HR": 0.466,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7749,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3878
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.793,
          "final": 2.0302,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.115,
          "final": 4.2152,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.191,
          "final": 2.5352,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.281,
          "final": 6.0124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.466,
          "final": 0.6932,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7749,
          "final": 4.7749,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3878,
          "final": 1.3878,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
        "WHIP": 1.2857142857142858,
        "K9": 9.559006211180124,
        "HR9": 0.5031055900621119,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9393619135966074,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "direction": "no_change",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3139,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5547,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8686,
        "offense_index": 1.0194,
        "defense_index": 0.9177,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0356
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5294,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3235,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7941,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4706,
        "offense_index": 1.073,
        "defense_index": 0.9994,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0998
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1354,
        "offense_edge": 0.0194,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.073,
        "defense_strength": -0.0823,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0006,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9892,
        "run_prevention": 1.0267,
        "strikeout": 0.9901
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663567",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663567",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.292,
            "xwoba": 0.292,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.1172,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5808,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3759,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0807,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.028
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663567",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.36448787171314,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.202787194397,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.36448787171314,
                "release_spin_rate": 2218.202787194397,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3645,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.2028,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.028,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2002,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2293,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9805,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
          "walk_factor": 1.006,
          "homer_factor": 0.9625,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663567",
            "espn_id": 39898,
            "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 38,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 38,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 330,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 70,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 71,
              "era_value": 3.6562,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 56,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 75,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 128.0,
              "ip_rank": 70,
              "h_value": 106.0,
              "h_rank": 94,
              "er_value": 52.0,
              "er_rank": 83,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 111,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 25,
              "k_value": 125.0,
              "k_rank": 53,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.7890625,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.2265,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.81,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9805,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9805,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9625,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_DET@MIN

away

Jackson Jobe

True

4.2

5.0

3/6

3/2

6/4

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9272727272727277,
      "WHIP": 1.4181818181818182,
      "IP": 18.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.583,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.583,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2713,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0231,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9751,
      "walk_factor": 1.0081,
      "homer_factor": 1.0432,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.345,
      "xwoba": 0.361,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
      "whiff_percent": 18.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 296,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 80.0,
            "Pitches": 317.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.75,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 79.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9273,
            "WHIP": 1.4182,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 80.0,
            "Pitches": 317.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.75,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 79.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9273,
            "WHIP": 1.4182,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 80.0,
            "Pitches": 317.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.75,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 79.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9273,
            "WHIP": 1.4182,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.201,
        "predicted_H": 4.561,
        "predicted_BB": 1.866,
        "predicted_SO": 4.132,
        "predicted_HR": 0.607,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2442,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3771
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.201,
          "final": 2.6682,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.561,
          "final": 3.6482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.866,
          "final": 2.5291,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.132,
          "final": 5.2243,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.607,
          "final": 0.8368,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2442,
          "final": 4.2442,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3771,
          "final": 1.3771,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 18.1,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 15,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.9272727272727277,
        "WHIP": 1.4181818181818182,
        "K9": 7.363636363636364,
        "HR9": 0.9818181818181819,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9704081910347343,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4632,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 531.0,
        "run_differential": 65.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4779,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3824,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9044,
        "offense_index": 0.9809,
        "defense_index": 1.1443,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0775
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4745,
        "runs_scored": 626.0,
        "runs_allowed": 682.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4088,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5693,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9781,
        "offense_index": 1.0227,
        "defense_index": 0.8975,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.142
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0645,
        "offense_edge": -0.0191,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "defense_strength": 0.1443,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1025,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.006,
        "run_prevention": 0.986,
        "strikeout": 1.0001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695549",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695549",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 60.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.345,
            "xwoba": 0.361,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1966,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0423,
            "whiff_percent": 18.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7503,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5757,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9286,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1583
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695549",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.69191136764016,
              "release_spin_rate": 2460.5256165107135,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.69191136764016,
                "release_spin_rate": 2460.5256165107135,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6919,
              "release_spin_rate": 2460.5256,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1583,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1308,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2713,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0231,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9751,
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          "homer_factor": 1.0432,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695549",
            "espn_id": 4872647,
            "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 296,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 296,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 643,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 227,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.9272,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 396,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 409,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 18.1,
              "ip_rank": 518,
              "h_value": 18.0,
              "h_rank": 511,
              "er_value": 8.0,
              "er_rank": 562,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 500,
              "bb_value": 8.0,
              "bb_rank": 510,
              "k_value": 15.0,
              "k_rank": 517,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.363636,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.4181,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.33,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0104,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0104,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0036,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0194,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9888,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_DET@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_DET@MIN

home

Taj Bradley

True

5.1

7.0

-3

4/4

3/3

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2760180995475112,
      "IP": 147.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0149,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9987,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0366,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.0728,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.0,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.305,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.2,
      "whiff_percent": 26.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 27,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.6,
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            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 93.4
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.575,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.525,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 972.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 6.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 97.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.142,
            "WHIP": 1.2614,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46023,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83523,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42614,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14205,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.1,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 125.0,
            "BB": 63.0,
            "SO": 169.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 627.0,
            "Pitches": 2517.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.8077,
            "BB": 2.4231,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.7692,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9706,
            "WHIP": 1.276,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84842,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4276,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14706,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13575
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.883,
        "predicted_H": 5.254,
        "predicted_BB": 2.54,
        "predicted_SO": 6.164,
        "predicted_HR": 0.72,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6454,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3956
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.883,
          "final": 3.3501,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.254,
          "final": 4.7296,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.54,
          "final": 2.7323,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.164,
          "final": 6.0954,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.72,
          "final": 0.8371,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6454,
          "final": 4.6454,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3956,
          "final": 1.3956,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 67,
        "HR": 8,
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        "WHIP": 1.2613636363636362,
        "K9": 10.27840909090909,
        "HR9": 1.227272727272727,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9708046895706334,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4745,
        "runs_scored": 626.0,
        "runs_allowed": 682.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4088,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5693,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9781,
        "offense_index": 1.0227,
        "defense_index": 0.8975,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.142
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4632,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 531.0,
        "run_differential": 65.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4779,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3824,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9044,
        "offense_index": 0.9809,
        "defense_index": 1.1443,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0775
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0645,
        "offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0191,
        "defense_strength": -0.1025,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1443,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9951,
        "run_prevention": 1.0104,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671737",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671737",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
            "k_percent": 27.0,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.305,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.7516,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8508,
            "whiff_percent": 26.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1632,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3464,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1672
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671737",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.84991659997009,
              "release_spin_rate": 2176.795721962065,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.84991659997009,
                "release_spin_rate": 2176.795721962065,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8499,
              "release_spin_rate": 2176.7957,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1672,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.194,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0149,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9987,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0366,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.0728,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671737",
            "espn_id": 42480,
            "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 27,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 27,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 269,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 31,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 39,
              "era_value": 3.9705,
              "era_rank": 35.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 32,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 101,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 147.1,
              "ip_rank": 34,
              "h_value": 125.0,
              "h_rank": 56,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 35,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 27,
              "bb_value": 63.0,
              "bb_rank": 10,
              "k_value": 169.0,
              "k_rank": 13,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.323529,
              "k_per_9_rank": 10,
              "whip_value": 1.276,
              "whip_rank": 40.0,
              "war_value": 3.16,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0728,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0366,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_DET@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_MIA@WAS

away

Ryan Gusto

True

4.2

4.1

-1

-3

2/4

2/2

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9789473684210526,
      "WHIP": 1.3263157894736841,
      "IP": 63.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.154,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.288,
      "sample_weight": 0.948,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0245,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9605,
      "walk_factor": 0.9488,
      "homer_factor": 1.0613,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.321,
      "xwoba": 0.326,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 241,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 364.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 72.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8493,
            "WHIP": 1.1507,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20548,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94521,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20548,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16438
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 165.0,
            "Pitches": 585.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 16.5,
            "Pitches": 58.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94872,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20513,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79487,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12821
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 280.0,
            "Pitches": 1009.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.5556,
            "R": 1.7222,
            "H": 3.6667,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.9444,
            "HR": 0.4444,
            "BF": 15.5556,
            "Pitches": 56.0556
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9789,
            "WHIP": 1.3263,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44211,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04211,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83684,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12632
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.518,
        "predicted_H": 4.301,
        "predicted_BB": 1.127,
        "predicted_SO": 3.68,
        "predicted_HR": 0.643,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0736,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2211
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.518,
          "final": 2.6147,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.301,
          "final": 3.2843,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.127,
          "final": 1.5127,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.68,
          "final": 3.3795,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.643,
          "final": 1.2426,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0736,
          "final": 3.0736,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2211,
          "final": 1.2211,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 39.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.9999999999999996,
        "WHIP": 1.1538461538461537,
        "K9": 7.153846153846152,
        "HR9": 1.1538461538461537,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8396366388713327,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
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        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 594.0,
        "runs_allowed": 579.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1095,
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          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4676,
        "runs_scored": 720.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1151,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0293,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9892
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687473",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687473",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.3542,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.312,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0458
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687473",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 73,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 73,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.04680825756294,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.111446962792,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 73,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.04680825756294,
                "release_spin_rate": 2247.111446962792,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0468,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.1114,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3272,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.288,
          "sample_weight": 0.948,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0245,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "687473",
            "espn_id": 5131986,
            "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 241,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 241,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 399,
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              "gs_rank": 147,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 3.9789,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 396,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 224,
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              "hld_value": 1.0,
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              "h_value": 66.0,
              "h_rank": 161,
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              "er_rank": 195,
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              "hr_rank": 195,
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              "bb_rank": 314,
              "k_value": 53.0,
              "k_rank": 254,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.531579,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35,
              "whip_value": 1.3263,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.56,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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            "factor": 1.0232,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0232,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9515,
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          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0581,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9626,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 73,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_MIA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_MIA@WAS

home

Will Dion

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-1

0/2

2/1

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 34.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.333,
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      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9778,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0284,
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      "homer_factor": 0.9605,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.276,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 336,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 34.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.67,
      "season_WHIP": 1.136,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702021",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 52.0,
            "Pitches": 223.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.2,
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            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 10.4,
            "Pitches": 44.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 0.7857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
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            "Pitches": 299.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.3,
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            "Pitches": 29.9
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 0.8,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 139.0,
            "Pitches": 535.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 0.7778,
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            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 7.7222,
            "Pitches": 29.7222
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1359,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40777,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87379,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26214,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19417,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17476
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.314,
        "predicted_H": 2.487,
        "predicted_BB": 1.169,
        "predicted_SO": 3.657,
        "predicted_HR": 0.514,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4435,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0641
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_weight": 0.4723,
      "form_reliability": 0.5795,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.89,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5795,
        "prior_weight": 0.4205
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.314,
          "final": 1.1483,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.487,
          "final": 1.1747,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.169,
          "final": 1.6075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.657,
          "final": 5.421,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.514,
          "final": 0.2428,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4435,
          "final": 3.4435,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0641,
          "final": 1.0641,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 20.0,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 10,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.2500000000000004,
        "WHIP": 0.8000000000000002,
        "K9": 10.350000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.3500000000000003,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8344105887174091,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.89,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5795,
          "prior_weight": 0.4205
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702021",
      "player_name": "Will Dion",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4676,
        "runs_scored": 720.0,
        "runs_allowed": 704.0,
        "run_differential": 16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1151,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1799,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0647,
        "offense_index": 1.1596,
        "defense_index": 0.8819,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0484
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 594.0,
        "runs_allowed": 579.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1095,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2263,
        "offense_index": 0.9707,
        "defense_index": 1.0569,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0165
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0649,
        "offense_edge": 0.1596,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0293,
        "defense_strength": -0.1181,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0569,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.995,
        "run_prevention": 1.0104,
        "strikeout": 1.0004
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702021",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702021",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 114.0,
            "k_percent": 29.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.276,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.2099,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5754,
            "whiff_percent": 28.6,
            "swing_percent": 51.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5364,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7821,
            "regression_edge": 0.8571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4857,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2021
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702021",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 31,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 31,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.25508831777174,
              "release_spin_rate": 2215.150387818154,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 31,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.25508831777174,
                "release_spin_rate": 2215.150387818154,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.2551,
              "release_spin_rate": 2215.1504,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2021,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.4439,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2614,
          "sample_weight": 0.456,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9778,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0284,
          "walk_factor": 0.9763,
          "homer_factor": 0.9605,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.03,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "702021",
            "espn_id": 4420174,
            "player_name": "Will Dion",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 336,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 336,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 399,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 351,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.6699,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 396,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 409,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 34.1,
              "ip_rank": 385,
              "h_value": 30.0,
              "h_rank": 396,
              "er_value": 14.0,
              "er_rank": 417,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 256,
              "bb_value": 9.0,
              "bb_rank": 489,
              "k_value": 41.0,
              "k_rank": 327,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.747573,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.1359,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.21,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9899,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9899,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9892,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.013,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_MIA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_MIL@CHC

away

Kyle Harrison

True

5.2

3.2

-6

4/10

1/2

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.7870967741935484,
      "WHIP": 1.1225806451612903,
      "IP": 103.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.921,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5064,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.957,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.068,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9523,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.28,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
      "whiff_percent": 29.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 51,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 103.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.787,
      "season_WHIP": 1.123,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690986",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 398.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.662,
            "WHIP": 1.2676,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29577,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97183,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29577,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1831,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21127
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 194.0,
            "Pitches": 798.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 79.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3043,
            "WHIP": 1.2391,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47826,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23913,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21739
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 103.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 127.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 423.0,
            "Pitches": 1785.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.5238,
            "R": 1.7619,
            "H": 4.2381,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "stats": {
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      "total_change": {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.292,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690986",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690986",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690986",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9645,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
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              "w_value": 10.0,
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              "l_rank": 224,
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              "k_per_9_value": 11.06129,
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              "whip_value": 1.1225,
              "whip_rank": null,
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 25,
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      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_MIL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_MIL@CHC

home

Clay Holmes

True

6.0

-2

1/5

0/2

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.2599118942731278,
      "WHIP": 1.0572687224669604,
      "IP": 75.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0496,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0042,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9526,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 0.9874,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.251,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
      "whiff_percent": 20.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 42,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 75.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.26,
      "season_WHIP": 1.057,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 424.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9634,
            "WHIP": 1.1341,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32927,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80488,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32927,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65854,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03659
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 896.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4971,
            "WHIP": 1.0405,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27746,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74566,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2948,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74566,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05202
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 75.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 303.0,
            "Pitches": 1157.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4615,
            "R": 1.4615,
            "H": 4.2308,
            "BB": 1.9231,
            "SO": 4.2308,
            "HR": 0.3077,
            "BF": 23.3077,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2599,
            "WHIP": 1.0573,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2511,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72687,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3304,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72687,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05286
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.99,
        "predicted_H": 4.665,
        "predicted_BB": 1.877,
        "predicted_SO": 4.342,
        "predicted_HR": 0.415,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1702,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1577
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4674,
      "form_weight": 0.5326,
      "form_reliability": 0.7222,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.99,
          "final": 1.9947,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.665,
          "final": 2.9521,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.877,
          "final": 0.9997,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.342,
          "final": 4.6495,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.415,
          "final": 0.221,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1702,
          "final": 3.1702,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1577,
          "final": 1.1577,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.497109826589595,
        "WHIP": 1.0404624277456647,
        "K9": 6.710982658959537,
        "HR9": 0.4682080924855491,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7802269012101499,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7222,
          "prior_weight": 0.2778
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.562,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": 127.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.927,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.292,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.365,
        "offense_index": 1.1844,
        "defense_index": 1.0236,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0968
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 52,
        "win_pct": 0.6204,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 506.0,
        "run_differential": 177.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.292,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9854,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6934,
        "offense_index": 1.1158,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3314
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2346,
        "offense_edge": 0.1844,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1158,
        "defense_strength": 0.0236,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2097,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0279,
        "strikeout": 0.9837
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605280",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605280",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 277.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.251,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.7262,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3103,
            "whiff_percent": 20.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.4293,
            "regression_edge": -1.6286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6429,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0416
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605280",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.12254093725541,
              "release_spin_rate": 2162.3889026804495,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.12254093725541,
                "release_spin_rate": 2162.3889026804495,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1225,
              "release_spin_rate": 2162.3889,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0416,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2969,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0496,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0042,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9526,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 0.9874,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.057,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605280",
            "espn_id": 32827,
            "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 42,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 42,
              "gp_value": 13.0,
              "gp_rank": 474,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 147,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 86,
              "era_value": 2.2599,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 128,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 101,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 75.2,
              "ip_rank": 161,
              "h_value": 55.0,
              "h_rank": 195,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 314,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 359,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 203,
              "k_value": 55.0,
              "k_rank": 237,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.54185,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39,
              "whip_value": 1.0572,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.7,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0042,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0042,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9874,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9526,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_MIL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_NYM@TB

away

Robert Stock

True

4.0

5.1

-4

5/5

3/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 7.403225806451612,
      "WHIP": 1.9354838709677418,
      "IP": 20.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1262,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0107,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9933,
      "walk_factor": 1.0306,
      "homer_factor": 1.0037,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.2,
      "bb_percent": 12.5,
      "woba": 0.383,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 752,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "476594",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 404.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.4032,
            "WHIP": 1.9355,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.82258,
            "H_per_IP": 1.30645,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62903,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01613,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 404.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.4032,
            "WHIP": 1.9355,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.82258,
            "H_per_IP": 1.30645,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62903,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01613,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 404.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.4032,
            "WHIP": 1.9355,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.82258,
            "H_per_IP": 1.30645,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62903,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01613,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.755,
        "predicted_H": 4.75,
        "predicted_BB": 2.083,
        "predicted_SO": 4.074,
        "predicted_HR": 0.507,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.9505,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6399
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.755,
          "final": 3.4538,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.75,
          "final": 4.8903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.083,
          "final": 2.5977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.074,
          "final": 4.5937,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.507,
          "final": 0.7837,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.9505,
          "final": 5.9505,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6399,
          "final": 1.6399,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 20.2,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 27,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 7.403225806451614,
        "WHIP": 1.9354838709677422,
        "K9": 9.145161290322582,
        "HR9": 0.870967741935484,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.23923025637781,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "476594",
      "player_name": "Robert Stock",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4453,
        "runs_scored": 562.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3869,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1022,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4891,
        "offense_index": 0.9163,
        "defense_index": 0.9973,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.129
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.6029,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 562.0,
        "run_differential": 54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3971,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5294,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1324,
        "offense_index": 1.0117,
        "defense_index": 1.0834,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1712
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3002,
        "offense_edge": -0.0837,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0117,
        "defense_strength": -0.0027,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0834,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9874,
        "run_prevention": 1.0172,
        "strikeout": 0.9901
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "476594",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "476594",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 81.0,
            "k_percent": 20.2,
            "bb_percent": 12.5,
            "woba": 0.383,
            "xwoba": 0.339,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2956,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3172,
            "whiff_percent": 24.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5832,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3257,
            "regression_edge": 1.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0638
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "476594",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.00453080177854,
              "release_spin_rate": 2252.021749497992,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.00453080177854,
                "release_spin_rate": 2252.021749497992,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0045,
              "release_spin_rate": 2252.0217,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0638,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4559,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1262,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0107,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9933,
          "walk_factor": 1.0306,
          "homer_factor": 1.0037,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.044,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "476594",
            "espn_id": 30577,
            "player_name": "Robert Stock",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 752,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 752,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 605,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 210,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 7.4032,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 516,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 224,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 20.2,
              "ip_rank": 486,
              "h_value": 27.0,
              "h_rank": 425,
              "er_value": 17.0,
              "er_rank": 352,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 500,
              "bb_value": 13.0,
              "bb_rank": 400,
              "k_value": 21.0,
              "k_rank": 462,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.145161,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.9354,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.47,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0048,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0048,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.997,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_NYM@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_NYM@TB

home

Ian Seymour

True

5.0

6.1

3/6

3/0

6/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7850467289719627,
      "WHIP": 1.102803738317757,
      "IP": 107.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 40,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.697,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3054,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.974,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.06,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0163,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 29.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 249,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.474,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8111,
        "prior_weight": 0.1889
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 40,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.2209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0814,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13953,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32558,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24419
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 850.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4118,
            "WHIP": 1.2157,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4902,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21569,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21569
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 40,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 107.0,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 86.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 128.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 441.0,
            "Pitches": 1713.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.125,
            "R": 1.225,
            "H": 2.15,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.475,
            "BF": 11.025,
            "Pitches": 42.825
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.785,
            "WHIP": 1.1028,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42056,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80374,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29907,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19626,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17757
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.211,
        "predicted_H": 4.83,
        "predicted_BB": 1.122,
        "predicted_SO": 6.002,
        "predicted_HR": 1.007,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0911,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2236
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4298,
      "form_weight": 0.5702,
      "form_reliability": 0.8111,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.474,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8111,
        "prior_weight": 0.1889
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.211,
          "final": 1.2607,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.83,
          "final": 4.0434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.122,
          "final": 1.9292,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.002,
          "final": 5.5713,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.007,
          "final": 0.5742,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0911,
          "final": 4.0911,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2236,
          "final": 1.2236,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 68,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.411764705882352,
        "WHIP": 1.2156862745098038,
        "K9": 11.999999999999998,
        "HR9": 1.941176470588235,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0000061712996886,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.474,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8111,
          "prior_weight": 0.1889
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "player_name": "Ian Seymour",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.6029,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 562.0,
        "run_differential": 54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3971,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5294,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1324,
        "offense_index": 1.0117,
        "defense_index": 1.0834,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1712
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4453,
        "runs_scored": 562.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3869,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1022,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4891,
        "offense_index": 0.9163,
        "defense_index": 0.9973,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.129
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3002,
        "offense_edge": 0.0117,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0837,
        "defense_strength": 0.0834,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0027,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0179,
        "run_prevention": 0.9633,
        "strikeout": 1.0157
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693855",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693855",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 390.0,
            "k_percent": 28.7,
            "bb_percent": 7.2,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.2147,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7525,
            "whiff_percent": 29.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1677,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7157,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5429,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.218
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693855",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.97248769813585,
              "release_spin_rate": 1969.909917192974,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.97248769813585,
                "release_spin_rate": 1969.909917192974,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9725,
              "release_spin_rate": 1969.9099,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.218,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.557,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3054,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.974,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.06,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 1.0163,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693855",
            "espn_id": 4669425,
            "player_name": "Ian Seymour",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 249,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 249,
              "gp_value": 41.0,
              "gp_rank": 149,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 159,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 120,
              "era_value": 4.2056,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 32,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 128,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 86,
              "hld_value": 10.0,
              "hld_rank": 79,
              "ip_value": 107.0,
              "ip_rank": 104,
              "h_value": 91.0,
              "h_rank": 117,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 91,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 36,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 128,
              "k_value": 128.0,
              "k_rank": 46,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.766355,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11,
              "whip_value": 1.1495,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.51,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0163,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_NYM@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_NYY@LAA

away

Elmer Rodríguez

True

4.2

3.2

-3

5/4

2/3

4/5

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.695652173913044,
      "WHIP": 1.5217391304347827,
      "IP": 23.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.206,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0175,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9887,
      "walk_factor": 1.0297,
      "homer_factor": 1.009,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.2,
      "bb_percent": 12.4,
      "woba": 0.33,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 360,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695684",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 406.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 81.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69565,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08696
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 406.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 81.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69565,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08696
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 406.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 81.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69565,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08696
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.383,
        "predicted_H": 4.504,
        "predicted_BB": 2.184,
        "predicted_SO": 3.815,
        "predicted_HR": 0.546,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5967,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.433
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
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      },
      {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 555.0,
        "runs_allowed": 637.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5985,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 3.0
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0144,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695684",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695684",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 79,
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            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.206,
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            "player_name": "Elmer Rodriguez",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.5217,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_NYY@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_NYY@LAA

home

Walbert Ureña

True

5.2

7.0

-1

5/5

2/0

8/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.9398280802292263,
      "WHIP": 1.2893982808022924,
      "IP": 116.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.212,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3641,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9691,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0131,
      "walk_factor": 1.074,
      "homer_factor": 0.9197,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 12.8,
      "woba": 0.283,
      "xwoba": 0.288,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 45,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 116.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.94,
      "season_WHIP": 1.289,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 423.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 84.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.913,
            "WHIP": 1.3913,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43478,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04348
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 880.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 2.9,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6735,
            "WHIP": 1.2653,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40816,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67347,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59184,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97959,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04082
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 116.1,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 86.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 112.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 500.0,
            "Pitches": 2025.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.5833,
            "R": 1.875,
            "H": 3.5833,
            "BB": 2.6667,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.2917,
            "BF": 20.8333,
            "Pitches": 84.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9398,
            "WHIP": 1.2894,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32665,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73926,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55014,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96275,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06017
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.098,
        "predicted_H": 3.796,
        "predicted_BB": 2.841,
        "predicted_SO": 4.959,
        "predicted_HR": 0.316,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7833,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3298
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.098,
          "final": 2.0566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.796,
          "final": 4.3051,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
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          "final": 6.2449,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.316,
          "final": 1.0281,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7833,
          "final": 3.7833,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3298,
          "final": 1.3298,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 29,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.673469387755102,
        "WHIP": 1.2653061224489797,
        "K9": 8.816326530612244,
        "HR9": 0.3673469387755102,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9181884442088523,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "player_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "700712",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700712",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.87892413530693,
              "release_spin_rate": 2097.4669612279217,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.87892413530693,
                "release_spin_rate": 2097.4669612279217,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.8789,
              "release_spin_rate": 2097.467,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2248,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.6056,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3641,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9691,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0131,
          "walk_factor": 1.074,
          "homer_factor": 0.9197,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "700712",
            "espn_id": 5197476,
            "player_name": "Walbert Urena",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 45,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 45,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 312,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 79,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 53,
              "era_value": 2.9398,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 56,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 25,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 258,
              "ip_value": 116.1,
              "ip_rank": 91,
              "h_value": 86.0,
              "h_rank": 125,
              "er_value": 38.0,
              "er_rank": 148,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 217,
              "bb_value": 64.0,
              "bb_rank": 8,
              "k_value": 112.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.664756,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.2893,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.63,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9691,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9691,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.074,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9197,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_NYY@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_OAK@TEX

away

Gage Jump

True

5.0

4.1

-2

6/6

2/3

8/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.686792452830189,
      "WHIP": 1.4603773584905662,
      "IP": 88.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.196,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0295,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0166,
      "walk_factor": 1.036,
      "homer_factor": 0.9862,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 10.9,
      "woba": 0.33,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 119,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695611",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 469.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 3.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3947,
            "WHIP": 1.6184,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.67105,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14474,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07895
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 900.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1448,
            "WHIP": 1.7379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68276,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07586,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66207,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14483
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 88.1,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 87.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 97.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 385.0,
            "Pitches": 1539.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7059,
            "R": 2.8235,
            "H": 5.1176,
            "BB": 2.4706,
            "SO": 5.7059,
            "HR": 0.5294,
            "BF": 22.6471,
            "Pitches": 90.5294
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6868,
            "WHIP": 1.4604,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52075,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98491,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47547,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09811,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10189
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.105,
        "predicted_H": 4.931,
        "predicted_BB": 2.829,
        "predicted_SO": 5.458,
        "predicted_HR": 0.574,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.632,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.564
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.105,
          "final": 2.6121,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.931,
          "final": 5.4078,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.829,
          "final": 2.4592,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.458,
          "final": 6.5918,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.574,
          "final": 0.764,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.632,
          "final": 5.632,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.564,
          "final": 1.564,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 32,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 6.1448275862068975,
        "WHIP": 1.7379310344827588,
        "K9": 10.613793103448277,
        "HR9": 1.3034482758620691,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.208031864335524,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695611",
      "player_name": "Gage Jump",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.3869,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 787.0,
        "run_differential": -191.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3942,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3504,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7445,
        "offense_index": 0.9737,
        "defense_index": 0.7778,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3028
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4891,
        "runs_scored": 554.0,
        "runs_allowed": 605.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3723,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0438,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4161,
        "offense_index": 0.9051,
        "defense_index": 1.0117,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0551
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2477,
        "offense_edge": -0.0263,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0949,
        "defense_strength": -0.2222,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0117,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9872,
        "run_prevention": 1.0194,
        "strikeout": 1.0002
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695611",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695611",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 337.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 10.9,
            "woba": 0.33,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3887,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.198,
            "whiff_percent": 24.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1704,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1007,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0429,
            "bb_edge": -0.45,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0686
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695611",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.08991637091822,
              "release_spin_rate": 2304.151617914787,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.08991637091822,
                "release_spin_rate": 2304.151617914787,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0899,
              "release_spin_rate": 2304.1516,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0686,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.49,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0295,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0166,
          "walk_factor": 1.036,
          "homer_factor": 0.9862,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695611",
            "espn_id": 5023852,
            "player_name": "Gage Jump",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 119,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 119,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 411,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 112,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 86,
              "era_value": 4.6867,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 98,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 43,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 88.1,
              "ip_rank": 136,
              "h_value": 87.0,
              "h_rank": 122,
              "er_value": 46.0,
              "er_rank": 111,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 169,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 62,
              "k_value": 97.0,
              "k_rank": 96,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.883019,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.4603,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.036,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9862,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0166,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_OAK@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_OAK@TEX

home

Jacob deGrom

True

5.0

7.0

-1

3/1

2/0

8/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.212276214833759,
      "WHIP": 1.1815856777493605,
      "IP": 130.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.213,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2738,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9767,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0891,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.045,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.5,
      "whiff_percent": 33.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 117,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 413.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.8,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 867.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 86.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2867,
            "WHIP": 1.4476,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58741,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3986,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27972,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04196
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 130.1,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 61.0,
            "H": 117.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 159.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 540.0,
            "Pitches": 2205.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.44,
            "R": 2.44,
            "H": 4.68,
            "BB": 1.48,
            "SO": 6.36,
            "HR": 0.68,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2123,
            "WHIP": 1.1816,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46803,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8977,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28389,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21995,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.9,
        "predicted_H": 4.808,
        "predicted_BB": 2.15,
        "predicted_SO": 5.68,
        "predicted_HR": 0.354,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6936,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5182
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.9,
          "final": 2.1012,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.808,
          "final": 4.0479,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.15,
          "final": 2.0869,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.68,
          "final": 6.6554,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.354,
          "final": 0.6256,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6936,
          "final": 5.6936,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5182,
          "final": 1.5182,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 5.286713286713287,
        "WHIP": 1.4475524475524477,
        "K9": 11.517482517482518,
        "HR9": 0.37762237762237766,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.104234540969235,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4891,
        "runs_scored": 554.0,
        "runs_allowed": 605.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3723,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0438,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4161,
        "offense_index": 0.9051,
        "defense_index": 1.0117,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0551
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.3869,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 787.0,
        "run_differential": -191.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3942,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3504,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7445,
        "offense_index": 0.9737,
        "defense_index": 0.7778,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3028
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2477,
        "offense_edge": -0.0949,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0263,
        "defense_strength": 0.0117,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2222,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0113,
        "run_prevention": 0.9822,
        "strikeout": 1.0095
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "594798",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "594798",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 29.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.3709,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6422,
            "whiff_percent": 33.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0319,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9957,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1778
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "594798",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.0397745860885,
              "release_spin_rate": 2438.3276886434514,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.0397745860885,
                "release_spin_rate": 2438.3276886434514,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.0398,
              "release_spin_rate": 2438.3277,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1778,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.27,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2738,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9767,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0891,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.045,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "594798",
            "espn_id": 32796,
            "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 117,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 117,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 292,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 61,
              "era_value": 4.2122,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 32,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 25,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 130.1,
              "ip_rank": 63,
              "h_value": 117.0,
              "h_rank": 73,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 50,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 56,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 92,
              "k_value": 159.0,
              "k_rank": 19,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.97954,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8,
              "whip_value": 1.1815,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.44,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9767,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9767,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.045,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0891,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_OAK@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_PHI@ARI

away

Aaron Nola

True

5.1

5.0

-1

-3

7/5

2/2

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.034965034965035,
      "WHIP": 1.3986013986013985,
      "IP": 143.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.296,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0038,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9997,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0337,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.067,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 24.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.353,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 99,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 483.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 96.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7931,
            "WHIP": 1.2069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31034,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27586,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 940.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.569,
            "WHIP": 1.2586,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39655,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91379,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22414
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.0,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 82.0,
            "H": 151.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 153.0,
            "HR": 32.0,
            "BF": 616.0,
            "Pitches": 2458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.963,
            "R": 3.037,
            "H": 5.5926,
            "BB": 1.8148,
            "SO": 5.6667,
            "HR": 1.1852,
            "BF": 22.8148,
            "Pitches": 91.037
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.035,
            "WHIP": 1.3986,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55944,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05594,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34266,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06993,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22378
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.286,
        "predicted_H": 5.204,
        "predicted_BB": 1.955,
        "predicted_SO": 6.44,
        "predicted_HR": 1.153,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6668,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.276
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.286,
          "final": 2.999,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.204,
          "final": 5.9511,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.955,
          "final": 1.9737,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.44,
          "final": 4.593,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.153,
          "final": 0.6734,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6668,
          "final": 3.6668,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.276,
          "final": 1.276,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 3.5689655172413794,
        "WHIP": 1.2586206896551724,
        "K9": 10.241379310344827,
        "HR9": 2.0172413793103448,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9062646229562134,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.562,
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        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": 30.0,
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        },
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      },
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      "edges": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.312,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 1.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
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            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2204
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.92905472584206,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.2152889944855,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.92905472584206,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9291,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.2153,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0038,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9997,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0337,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_id": 33709,
            "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 99,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 99,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
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              "hld_rank": 343,
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              "hr_rank": 3,
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              "bb_rank": 34,
              "k_value": 153.0,
              "k_rank": 22,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.629371,
              "k_per_9_rank": 14,
              "whip_value": 1.3986,
              "whip_rank": 46.0,
              "war_value": 1.64,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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            "factor": 0.9997,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.067,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0337,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_PHI@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_PHI@ARI

home

Brandon Pfaadt

True

6.1

6.0

-1

3/5

0/1

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 21.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 106,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
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            "HR": 4.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15152,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69697,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12121
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 891.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 89.1
          },
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82703,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.63243,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06486
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 45.0,
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            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 431.0,
            "Pitches": 1584.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.7083,
            "R": 1.875,
            "H": 3.9167,
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            "Pitches": 66.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.39048,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89524,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.68571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11429
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.947,
        "predicted_H": 4.847,
        "predicted_BB": 1.199,
        "predicted_SO": 4.331,
        "predicted_HR": 0.652,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9053,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0028
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.947,
          "final": 1.5466,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.847,
          "final": 4.066,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.199,
          "final": 0.692,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.331,
          "final": 4.191,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.652,
          "final": 0.3763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9053,
          "final": 2.9053,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0028,
          "final": 1.0028,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.2,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.189189189189189,
        "WHIP": 0.9567567567567566,
        "K9": 5.691891891891891,
        "HR9": 0.5837837837837837,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7434931877278816,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.529,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0362,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.529,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4928,
        "offense_index": 1.0119,
        "defense_index": 0.9962,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0641
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.562,
        "runs_scored": 622.0,
        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": 30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.219,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5401,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3212,
        "offense_index": 1.0144,
        "defense_index": 1.0357,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1846
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1205,
        "offense_edge": 0.0119,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0144,
        "defense_strength": -0.0038,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0357,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9945,
        "run_prevention": 1.0087,
        "strikeout": 0.9952
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694297",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694297",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 400.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8841,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.413,
            "whiff_percent": 21.2,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2782,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3857,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.775,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0453
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694297",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.05610692018405,
              "release_spin_rate": 2453.8790078891307,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.05610692018405,
                "release_spin_rate": 2453.8790078891307,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0561,
              "release_spin_rate": 2453.879,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0453,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3235,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0347,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.997,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9469,
          "walk_factor": 0.938,
          "homer_factor": 0.9762,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694297",
            "espn_id": 4721302,
            "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 106,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 106,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 312,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 138,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 86,
              "era_value": 3.5142,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 76,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 409,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 224,
              "ip_value": 105.0,
              "ip_rank": 107,
              "h_value": 94.0,
              "h_rank": 112,
              "er_value": 41.0,
              "er_rank": 136,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 124,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 195,
              "k_value": 72.0,
              "k_rank": 162,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.171428,
              "k_per_9_rank": 40,
              "whip_value": 1.1428,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.57,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.997,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.997,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9762,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9469,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_PHI@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_SD@CIN

away

Michael King

True

6.0

-3

5/4

0/3

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.230769230769231,
      "WHIP": 1.1666666666666667,
      "IP": 156.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0384,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
      "walk_factor": 1.006,
      "homer_factor": 0.9901,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.6,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6413,
            "WHIP": 1.1413,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29348,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81522,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84783,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16304
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 944.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7151,
            "WHIP": 1.1397,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30168,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78771,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35196,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87151,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13408
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.0,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 135.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 636.0,
            "Pitches": 2508.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0741,
            "R": 2.1481,
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            "Pitches": 92.8889
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.35897,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78205,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11538
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 2.084,
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    },
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0526,
          "final": 3.0526,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.1768,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
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        "games_played": 0,
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        "cold_streak": true,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8072290325112123,
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_SO": 6,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.073,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 137,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4745,
        "runs_scored": 570.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7883,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.6,
          "run_differential": -20.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0473,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.5715,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7946,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Michael King",
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            "espn_rank": 18,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 27.0,
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              "era_value": 3.2307,
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              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 56,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 25,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "h_value": 122.0,
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              "er_rank": 65,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
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              "k_value": 135.0,
              "k_rank": 40,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.788461,
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              "whip_value": 1.1666,
              "whip_rank": 26.0,
              "war_value": 3.45,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0033,
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            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_SD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_SD@CIN

home

Brady Singer

True

5.0

4.1

-2

8/10

1/0

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.4199029126213591,
      "IP": 137.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.282,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0399,
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      "walk_factor": 0.966,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.351,
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      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.7
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 139,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "player_id": "663903",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 132.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
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            "Pitches": 98.2
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.53933,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07865,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70787,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16854
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 258.0,
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
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            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
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            "Pitches": 97.0
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            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78333,
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            "R": 77.0,
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            "SO": 112.0,
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            "BF": 611.0,
            "Pitches": 2363.0
          },
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            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 2.9615,
            "H": 5.7692,
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            "SO": 4.3077,
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            "Pitches": 90.8846
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            "H_per_IP": 1.09223,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.81553,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.97,
        "predicted_H": 5.959,
        "predicted_BB": 1.908,
        "predicted_SO": 4.582,
        "predicted_HR": 0.894,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5818,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3484
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "H": 56,
        "BB": 20,
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        "K9": 7.049999999999999,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 1,
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          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663903",
      "player_name": "Brady Singer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.30662066127576,
                "release_spin_rate": 2382.9859605092684,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3066,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.986,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1433,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0233,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4695,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0399,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.976,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0897,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663903",
            "espn_id": 41172,
            "player_name": "Brady Singer",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 139,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 139,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 269,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 31,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 53,
              "era_value": 4.7184,
              "era_rank": 49.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 128,
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": 6,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 137.1,
              "ip_rank": 52,
              "h_value": 150.0,
              "h_rank": 11,
              "er_value": 72.0,
              "er_rank": 16,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 8,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 49,
              "k_value": 112.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.339806,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37,
              "whip_value": 1.4199,
              "whip_rank": 50.0,
              "war_value": 1.18,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0399,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0399,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0897,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_SD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_SEA@BOS

away

George Kirby

True

5.2

5.0

-2

5/7

0/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.022573363431151,
      "WHIP": 1.3340857787810385,
      "IP": 147.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.907,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 7.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.046,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9749,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 1.001,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.331,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 105,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2289,
            "WHIP": 1.4819,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46988,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15663,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 891.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 89.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9017,
            "WHIP": 1.3699,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43353,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14451,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22543,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81503,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13873
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 163.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 126.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 617.0,
            "Pitches": 2282.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.64,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.52,
            "BB": 1.36,
            "SO": 5.04,
            "HR": 0.68,
            "BF": 24.68,
            "Pitches": 91.28
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0226,
            "WHIP": 1.3341,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44695,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10384,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23025,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85327,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11512
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.635,
        "predicted_H": 6.373,
        "predicted_BB": 1.647,
        "predicted_SO": 4.543,
        "predicted_HR": 0.636,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1439,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4017
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.635,
          "final": 2.368,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.373,
          "final": 5.7957,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.647,
          "final": 0.9546,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.543,
          "final": 4.7351,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.636,
          "final": 0.789,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1439,
          "final": 4.1439,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4017,
          "final": 1.4017,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 66,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.9017341040462425,
        "WHIP": 1.3699421965317917,
        "K9": 7.3352601156069355,
        "HR9": 1.2485549132947975,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9464841266436759,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "player_name": "George Kirby",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4672,
        "runs_scored": 530.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": -72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5255,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.8686,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3942,
        "offense_index": 0.8641,
        "defense_index": 1.0189,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1274
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5401,
        "runs_scored": 609.0,
        "runs_allowed": 525.0,
        "run_differential": 84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.6131,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4453,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8321,
        "offense_index": 0.9929,
        "defense_index": 1.1683,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1444
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2718,
        "offense_edge": -0.1359,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0071,
        "defense_strength": 0.0189,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1683,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.99,
        "run_prevention": 1.0106,
        "strikeout": 0.9924
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669923",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669923",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 564.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.331,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.125,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1659,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0379,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0629,
            "regression_edge": 0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1169
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669923",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.95180614765201,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.8919829070005,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.95180614765201,
                "release_spin_rate": 2266.8919829070005,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.9518,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.892,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1169,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8348,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.046,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9749,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
          "homer_factor": 1.001,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669923",
            "espn_id": 42406,
            "player_name": "George Kirby",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 105,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 105,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 292,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 17,
              "era_value": 4.0225,
              "era_rank": 40.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 32,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 147.2,
              "ip_rank": 32,
              "h_value": 163.0,
              "h_rank": 5,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 31,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 56,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 120,
              "k_value": 126.0,
              "k_rank": 50,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.679458,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42,
              "whip_value": 1.334,
              "whip_rank": 44.0,
              "war_value": 1.58,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.001,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9749,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_SEA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_SEA@BOS

home

Payton Tolle

True

6.0

5.2

-1

2/6

3/2

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0877659574468086,
      "WHIP": 1.0851063829787235,
      "IP": 125.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.697,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7616,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9353,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0463,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 0.9143,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.283,
      "xwoba": 0.256,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
      "whiff_percent": 27.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 57,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.022,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25275,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 869.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 86.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38889,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27778,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14815
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 125.1,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 101.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 141.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 505.0,
            "Pitches": 1908.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9545,
            "R": 2.1364,
            "H": 4.5909,
            "BB": 1.5909,
            "SO": 6.4091,
            "HR": 0.6364,
            "BF": 22.9545,
            "Pitches": 86.7273
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0878,
            "WHIP": 1.0851,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34309,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80585,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27926,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1117
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.049,
        "predicted_H": 4.853,
        "predicted_BB": 1.67,
        "predicted_SO": 6.889,
        "predicted_HR": 0.713,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2046,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1332
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.049,
          "final": 1.1715,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.853,
          "final": 3.6312,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.67,
          "final": 2.2396,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.889,
          "final": 6.08,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.713,
          "final": 0.4077,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2046,
          "final": 3.2046,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1332,
          "final": 1.1332,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 72,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.5,
        "WHIP": 1.1666666666666667,
        "K9": 12.0,
        "HR9": 1.3333333333333333,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8962071516918455,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5401,
        "runs_scored": 609.0,
        "runs_allowed": 525.0,
        "run_differential": 84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.6131,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4453,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8321,
        "offense_index": 0.9929,
        "defense_index": 1.1683,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1444
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4672,
        "runs_scored": 530.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": -72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5255,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.8686,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3942,
        "offense_index": 0.8641,
        "defense_index": 1.0189,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1274
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2718,
        "offense_edge": -0.0071,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1359,
        "defense_strength": 0.1683,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0189,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0214,
        "run_prevention": 0.9478,
        "strikeout": 1.019
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "801139",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "801139",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 478.0,
            "k_percent": 27.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.283,
            "xwoba": 0.256,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4733,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3571,
            "whiff_percent": 27.4,
            "swing_percent": 55.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9199,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5993,
            "regression_edge": 0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1695
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "801139",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.89223250197915,
              "release_spin_rate": 2257.467793172286,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.89223250197915,
                "release_spin_rate": 2257.467793172286,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8922,
              "release_spin_rate": 2257.4678,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1695,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2109,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7616,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9353,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0463,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 0.9143,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "801139",
            "espn_id": 4966140,
            "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 57,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 57,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 346,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 79,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 39,
              "era_value": 3.0877,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 56,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 101,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 125.1,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 101.0,
              "h_rank": 101,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 128,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 93,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 111,
              "k_value": 141.0,
              "k_rank": 32,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.125,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11,
              "whip_value": 1.0851,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.26,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9353,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9353,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9143,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0463,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_SEA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_SF@ATL

away

Anthony Molina

True

3.0

5.0

-1

4/6

2/0

2/6

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.892857142857143,
      "WHIP": 0.9642857142857142,
      "IP": 9.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2075,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0176,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
      "walk_factor": 0.9694,
      "homer_factor": 1.0002,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 8.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.251,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
      "whiff_percent": 18.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 344,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.873,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2725,
        "prior_weight": 0.7275
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 35.0,
            "Pitches": 140.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.75,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.75,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 0.75,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 8.75,
            "Pitches": 35.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8929,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 35.0,
            "Pitches": 140.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.75,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.75,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 0.75,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 8.75,
            "Pitches": 35.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8929,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 35.0,
            "Pitches": 140.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.75,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.75,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 0.75,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 8.75,
            "Pitches": 35.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8929,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.709,
        "predicted_H": 3.458,
        "predicted_BB": 1.243,
        "predicted_SO": 2.92,
        "predicted_HR": 0.515,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0604,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2407
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6574,
      "form_weight": 0.3426,
      "form_reliability": 0.2725,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.873,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2725,
        "prior_weight": 0.7275
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.709,
          "final": 3.215,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.458,
          "final": 3.8143,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.243,
          "final": 1.7406,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.92,
          "final": 2.3152,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.515,
          "final": 1.4912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0604,
          "final": 4.0604,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2407,
          "final": 1.2407,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.1,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 3,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.8928571428571432,
        "WHIP": 0.9642857142857144,
        "K9": 2.8928571428571432,
        "HR9": 0.9642857142857144,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9460150951252848,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.873,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2725,
          "prior_weight": 0.7275
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.3077,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.3077,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.3077,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.3077,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4088,
        "runs_scored": 560.0,
        "runs_allowed": 634.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5401,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0876,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6277,
        "offense_index": 0.9143,
        "defense_index": 0.9661,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.179
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5985,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 519.0,
        "run_differential": 117.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.854,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7883,
        "offense_index": 1.0383,
        "defense_index": 1.1802,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.3,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2938
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4728,
        "offense_edge": -0.0857,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0383,
        "defense_strength": -0.0339,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1802,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9785,
        "run_prevention": 1.0332,
        "strikeout": 0.9828
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683627",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683627",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 12.0,
            "k_percent": 8.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.251,
            "xwoba": 0.355,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 72.3713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.751,
            "whiff_percent": 18.6,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0087,
            "command_and_miss": -1.0214,
            "regression_edge": -2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0037
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683627",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 27,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 27,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.79893899204244,
              "release_spin_rate": 2093.420424403183,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 27,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.79893899204244,
                "release_spin_rate": 2093.420424403183,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2093.4204,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0037,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0264,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2075,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0176,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
          "walk_factor": 0.9694,
          "homer_factor": 1.0002,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.104,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683627",
            "espn_id": 5016983,
            "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 344,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 344,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 643,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 351,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 2.8928,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 396,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 563,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 9.1,
              "ip_rank": 608,
              "h_value": 7.0,
              "h_rank": 666,
              "er_value": 3.0,
              "er_rank": 690,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 591,
              "bb_value": 2.0,
              "bb_rank": 701,
              "k_value": 3.0,
              "k_rank": 707,
              "k_per_9_value": 2.8928573,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 0.9642,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0079,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0079,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9862,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0001,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
            "adjusted": 1
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 69,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_SF@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260831

20260831_SF@ATL

home

Bryce Elder

True

6.0

5.1

-2

1/8

4/3

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.946635730858469,
      "WHIP": 1.2389791183294665,
      "IP": 143.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.747,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0553,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0047,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 0.9887,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 121,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693821",
      "report_date": "20260831",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 86.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2364,
            "WHIP": 1.4,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58182,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23636
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.2,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 606.0,
            "Pitches": 2161.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.52,
            "R": 2.76,
            "H": 5.28,
            "BB": 1.84,
            "SO": 4.72,
            "HR": 0.88,
            "BF": 24.24,
            "Pitches": 86.44
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9466,
            "WHIP": 1.239,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43852,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91879,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32019,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82135,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15313
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.809,
        "predicted_H": 5.523,
        "predicted_BB": 1.888,
        "predicted_SO": 4.497,
        "predicted_HR": 0.971,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3972,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2889
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.809,
          "final": 2.0484,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.523,
          "final": 4.0418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.888,
          "final": 2.7759,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.497,
          "final": 5.1289,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.971,
          "final": 0.5628,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3972,
          "final": 4.3972,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2889,
          "final": 1.2889,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 5.236363636363636,
        "WHIP": 1.4,
        "K9": 7.363636363636363,
        "HR9": 2.1272727272727274,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.097381394116088,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693821",
      "player_name": "Bryce Elder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": -1.0,
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            "direction": "deboost",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5985,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 519.0,
        "run_differential": 117.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.854,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7883,
        "offense_index": 1.0383,
        "defense_index": 1.1802,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.3,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2938
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4088,
        "runs_scored": 560.0,
        "runs_allowed": 634.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5401,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0876,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6277,
        "offense_index": 0.9143,
        "defense_index": 0.9661,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.179
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4728,
        "offense_edge": 0.0383,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0857,
        "defense_strength": 0.1802,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0339,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0277,
        "run_prevention": 0.9446,
        "strikeout": 1.021
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693821",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693821",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 576.0,
            "k_percent": 19.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8892,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2347,
            "whiff_percent": 21.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9028,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0388,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2507,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4714,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0762
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693821",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.50424923367713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2157.9408704006296,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.50424923367713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2157.9408704006296,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5042,
              "release_spin_rate": 2157.9409,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0762,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5443,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0553,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0047,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
          "walk_factor": 0.97,
          "homer_factor": 0.9887,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693821",
            "espn_id": 4301067,
            "player_name": "Bryce Elder",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 121,
            "espn_total_ranked": 842,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 121,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 292,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 14,
              "era_value": 3.9466,
              "era_rank": 34.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 56,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 75,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 343,
              "ip_value": 143.2,
              "ip_rank": 39,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 37,
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": 41,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 18,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 43,
              "k_value": 118.0,
              "k_rank": 63,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3921113,
              "k_per_9_rank": 43,
              "whip_value": 1.2389,
              "whip_rank": 35.0,
              "war_value": 1.37,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0047,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0047,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9887,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260831_SF@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}