Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260830 · dates 20260830 · generated 2026-08-31T21:54:12.876979+00:00

7-7

Winner picks · 50.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

12/28

Starter ER within ±1

17/28

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260830	14	14	0	7	7	14	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	14	applied games: 14formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	14	available games: 14
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	14	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	14	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	14	configured window: 10last 10 games: 14observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	14	settled games: 14metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.0693.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	6	53.6%	50.0%	3.6%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	6	56.7%	50.0%	6.7%	overconfident
0.65-0.70	2	67.6%	50.0%	17.6%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	14	2.4184	2.1848	4.4881	50.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	14	2.3929	2.2143	4.5	35.7%	-0.0255	0.0119
enhanced_prediction	14	2.5	1.8571	4.7143	50.0%	0.0816	0.2262
embedded_savant_run_environment	14	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	50.0%	0.0459	0.1548
fundamental_edge_target_review	14	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	50.0%	0.0459	0.1548
capped_target	14	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	50.0%	0.0459	0.1548
simulation_result	14	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	50.0%	0.0459	0.1548
published_final	14	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	50.0%	0.0459	0.1548

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 14,
  "team_run_mae": 2.5,
  "total_run_mae": 1.8571,
  "margin_mae": 4.7143,
  "winner_hits": 7,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0816,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2262
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=7

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	6.0	-3.0	3.0	9.0	7	4	2	1	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.864	-1.4608	-0.5968	2.3248	7	3	4	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 9.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.864,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.4608,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.5968,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.3248,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=7

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	7	3	0	4	reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction	2.0	-2.0	0.0	4.0	7	2	2	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.3248	-1.1398	0.185	2.4646	7	4	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.3248,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.1398,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.185,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.4646,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=14

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	6	3	3	0.5
[0.550, 0.600)	6	3	3	0.5
[0.600, 1.010)	2	1	1	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 6,
    "hits": 3,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.5
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=14

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260830	14	0.5692	9.2143	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260830",
      "sample_size": 14,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5692,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.2143,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=14

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	14	7	7	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 14,
      "hits": 7,
      "misses": 7,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260830_BAL@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBAL

Published scoreBAL 8 - 6 OAK

Final confidence55.1%

Calibrationraw 65.8% → blended 60.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=416

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0469

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.459582876008495-5.0043650884922934	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.102794,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.551397,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.448603,
    "away_win_probability": 0.551397
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.102794,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 8-6",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 8 - 6 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.55139712,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.657791,
    "sample_size": 416,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5457,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.601746,
    "published_confidence": 0.551397,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3824,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.424,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0469
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015974788274563327
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01577347945837807
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015422587015736783
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015228236850883852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014915391177454097
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022376795280055737,
      "1": 0.03894641553865575,
      "2": 0.061102468139541434,
      "3": 0.08641152479587301,
      "4": 0.11015551353310704,
      "5": 0.12657923471638297,
      "6": 0.13111136753433147,
      "7": 0.12241647907780893,
      "8": 0.10302937768633319,
      "9": 0.07816348676384247,
      "10": 0.05345254989701715,
      "11": 0.032949936818779425,
      "12": 0.018308906218665537,
      "13": 0.009170475808061525,
      "14": 0.004140406619990163,
      "15": 0.001685061571554347
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.016393380028918127,
      "1": 0.028711383273443174,
      "2": 0.04589796101020265,
      "3": 0.06697093075415349,
      "4": 0.08919344591858794,
      "5": 0.10842594526744075,
      "6": 0.12030596396798159,
      "7": 0.1218413671902273,
      "8": 0.11263050619512327,
      "9": 0.09503224181022557,
      "10": 0.07318794935417634,
      "11": 0.051447212561460814,
      "12": 0.033009411829526644,
      "13": 0.019331581675886347,
      "14": 0.010333576464109777,
      "15": 0.005041822966189875,
      "16": 0.002245319732346159
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 8 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 8 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.076,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.494,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
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    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_BOS@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 5 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 54.7% → blended 53.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.1% · weight 50.0% · n=341

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.089

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.457298434073513-3.882857362032676	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.546861,
    "sample_size": 341,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.538831,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0551,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.152,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.089
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026182148416179652
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024483142489400995
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024430465211072967
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02410890154841204
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024069593571179902
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04920334437611725,
      "1": 0.08354074935406167,
      "2": 0.1216723912368558,
      "3": 0.15201122311822196,
      "4": 0.16291054510097433,
      "5": 0.14976580785924606,
      "6": 0.11810440157386531,
      "7": 0.0798931282764572,
      "8": 0.04635992269464221,
      "9": 0.023076286001948658,
      "10": 0.009853239878849226,
      "11": 0.003608960528760506
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04709217975090333,
      "1": 0.08010775877746294,
      "2": 0.11733684122581167,
      "3": 0.14798858805284207,
      "4": 0.16071487821707045,
      "5": 0.15028580546597511,
      "6": 0.12100793949722072,
      "7": 0.08389648997374029,
      "8": 0.050085007103052595,
      "9": 0.025745759668327817,
      "10": 0.011395613339195546,
      "11": 0.004343138928397255
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0323,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.082,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.089,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5422,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.089,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.152,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0323,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-30T16:35:59.492079+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-30T17:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.453388,
      "confidence": 0.546612,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 5,
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.546612,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.546861,
        "sample_size": 341,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.538831
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5082,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5082,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.967409,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 341,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5292,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.089,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.491777,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.967409,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.453388,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546612
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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            "home_margin": -3.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 136,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.5661764705882353,
          "runs_scored": 606,
          "runs_allowed": 504,
          "run_differential": 102,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 136,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.5441176470588235,
          "runs_scored": 608,
          "runs_allowed": 509,
          "run_differential": 99,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7279411764705882,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0221,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0221,
        "quality_edge": 0.089,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0551,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.0551,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.152,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.089
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.15201122311822196,
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          "6": 0.11810440157386531,
          "7": 0.0798931282764572,
          "8": 0.04635992269464221,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.08010775877746294,
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          "8": 0.050085007103052595,
          "9": 0.025745759668327817,
          "10": 0.011395613339195546,
          "11": 0.004343138928397255
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.457298434073513,
      "home_runs": 3.882857362032676,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_CHW@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 7 - 4 MIN

Final confidence68.7%

Calibrationraw 85.1% → blended 70.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=104

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8087

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.144646054776782-3.2149869638769424	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.373348,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.686674,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.313326,
    "away_win_probability": 0.686674
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.373348,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 7 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.6866744,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.851334,
    "sample_size": 104,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.704517,
    "published_confidence": 0.686674,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8908,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.656,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8087
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.019781561946885656
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019414270018485853
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.018454695019687096
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.018414446535584543
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.018189766567636833
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04917387487081112,
      "1": 0.08349291567197355,
      "2": 0.1216123443210738,
      "3": 0.15195623722907323,
      "4": 0.1628816795268574,
      "5": 0.1497748123577581,
      "6": 0.11814576723143212,
      "7": 0.07994851237431665,
      "8": 0.04641041423534641,
      "9": 0.023111777069776268,
      "10": 0.009873339534436087,
      "11": 0.0036183255771454724
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01597135688603828,
      "1": 0.027985294318986432,
      "2": 0.044799845700306616,
      "3": 0.06552118339962465,
      "4": 0.08754785750401581,
      "5": 0.106872972077064,
      "6": 0.11919247195191558,
      "7": 0.1214474335256587,
      "8": 0.1130541297773652,
      "9": 0.09614862908121749,
      "10": 0.07470649072453359,
      "11": 0.05303128508009055,
      "12": 0.034392562989669445,
      "13": 0.020377716057101276,
      "14": 0.011030750121833362,
      "15": 0.005455231207986948,
      "16": 0.0024647895965920256
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1054,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.726,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8087,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.6867,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7016,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6867,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8087,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.656,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1054,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
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        "away": {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_CIN@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreCIN 4 - 7 CHC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 89.9% → blended 72.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=181

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4567

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.247162317123749-4.464241424487028	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 7 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.898786,
    "sample_size": 181,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5525,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.725643,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 12.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.9007,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.632,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4567
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018707660646211335
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01819312026690919
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01767755919259673
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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      "14": 0.01637844727683172,
      "15": 0.008814427347359726,
      "16": 0.004359192040618424,
      "17": 0.0019811092485365485
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045802803162807375,
      "1": 0.07800487476728889,
      "2": 0.11465506587193876,
      "3": 0.14544760374143462,
      "4": 0.15924349886971093,
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      "10": 0.012447173338060306,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "CIN 4 - 7 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "home_runs": 7,
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    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
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    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
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    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.247162317123749,
      "home_runs": 4.464241424487028,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_COL@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreCOL 3 - 6 ATL

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 68.1% → blended 62.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.0% · weight 50.0% · n=263

H2H base featurehome net 18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.7106

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.490538736798864-5.016195990946627	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 6 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.681323,
    "sample_size": 263,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5703,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.625811,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1038,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.2096,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.784,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.7106
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026140884284446036
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025058143067878583
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025050659237056426
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02405932045121474
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024013074549292607
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.033599373828346275,
      "1": 0.05785432175870547,
      "2": 0.0878885139371987,
      "3": 0.11779317495654473,
      "4": 0.13928354959306613,
      "5": 0.14530187423610588,
      "6": 0.13373167932534832,
      "7": 0.10858980971320915,
      "8": 0.07779210758119007,
      "9": 0.04916699833720267,
      "10": 0.02741596548066389,
      "11": 0.013487302114497035,
      "12": 0.005853805910034059,
      "13": 0.0022415232278874225
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06723898679316102,
      "1": 0.1123532571212668,
      "2": 0.1559773843081978,
      "3": 0.17990741290761905,
      "4": 0.17240424026706477,
      "5": 0.13726451726637592,
      "6": 0.0907987961423067,
      "7": 0.049901471598856134,
      "8": 0.022785474407635578,
      "9": 0.008643990019071556,
      "10": 0.0027244691684447137
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 6 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 6 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0198,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.134,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.7106,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7123,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.7106,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.784,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0198,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-30T16:35:58.131076+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-30T17:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.648845,
      "confidence": 0.648845,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        }
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.648845,
      "confidence": 0.648845,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 3,
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.681323,
        "sample_size": 263,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5703,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6277,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.958363,
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        "score_gap": 1.5675,
        "calibration_sample_size": 263,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5703,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5658,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.7106,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 2,
          "probability_before": 0.627691,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.67,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.958363,
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          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.648845
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 18.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.1038,
        "away_run_delta": -0.1038,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 136,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 55,
          "win_pct": 0.5955882352941176,
          "runs_scored": 633,
          "runs_allowed": 517,
          "run_differential": 116,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8529411764705882,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 136,
          "wins": 52,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.38235294117647056,
          "runs_scored": 642,
          "runs_allowed": 783,
          "run_differential": -141,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.036764705882353,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8897,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.2132,
        "quality_edge": 1.7106,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.2096,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.2096,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.784,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.7106
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 2.737,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 2.737,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.7106,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.2096,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 0.583,
          "home_runs": 7.094,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.026140884284446036
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.10858980971320915,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "8": 0.022785474407635578,
          "9": 0.008643990019071556,
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        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.490538736798864,
      "home_runs": 5.016195990946627,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_HOU@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreHOU 4 - 5 NYM

Final confidence54.2%

Calibrationraw 58.0% → blended 55.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.5% · weight 50.0% · n=456

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0931

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.266121825118229-5.93804585155549	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.083296,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.541648,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.541648,
    "away_win_probability": 0.458352
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.083296,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.5416477900000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.579851,
    "sample_size": 456,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5351,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.557475,
    "published_confidence": 0.541648,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1066,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.068,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0931
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02405455636938107
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023892487190907804
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022618180084964582
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02246578858754347
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022054847154431505
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03958473509404075,
      "1": 0.06778988217809125,
      "2": 0.10131149725565837,
      "3": 0.132132394960587,
      "4": 0.15038918246469138,
      "5": 0.14937592531377825,
      "6": 0.12947959643985804,
      "7": 0.09794421373167643,
      "8": 0.0646566128721377,
      "9": 0.0372480750581515,
      "10": 0.018726276702202938,
      "11": 0.008215911590989711,
      "12": 0.0031456963381367277
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.046409789035091985,
      "1": 0.07899541306986005,
      "2": 0.11592074428640795,
      "3": 0.1466518189206167,
      "4": 0.15994871423035123,
      "5": 0.1503976530378102,
      "6": 0.12191815206684932,
      "7": 0.08520453095878391,
      "8": 0.05133623509557784,
      "9": 0.026665660572876407,
      "10": 0.011941192090640653,
      "11": 0.004610096635133618
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0046,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.068,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0931,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5416,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.563,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5416,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0931,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.068,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0046,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "away": {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_KC@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreKC 5 - 6 CLE

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 54.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.1% · weight 50.0% · n=341

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1547

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.938503716777543-5.6118823076946684	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 5 - 6 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.564172,
    "sample_size": 341,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.547486,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5158,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.516,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1547
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021802441035183154
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021560775511333927
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021288681980659193
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021052711133421796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019618781838753624
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03581780269645805,
      "1": 0.061547866370588504,
      "2": 0.09292608392257384,
      "3": 0.1232743836725617,
      "4": 0.1436873764529112,
      "5": 0.14715497913214431,
      "6": 0.1324164311427814,
      "7": 0.1046934151428879,
      "8": 0.07272896816009952,
      "9": 0.04439213742106174,
      "10": 0.023807580272681674,
      "11": 0.011218506125344372,
      "12": 0.004644782395603723,
      "13": 0.001689687092302164
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0373572809100813,
      "1": 0.06410272263301892,
      "2": 0.09637459690202335,
      "3": 0.12695024834150226,
      "4": 0.14651747184152347,
      "5": 0.14815972360408333,
      "6": 0.13126706752378678,
      "7": 0.10189814753570256,
      "8": 0.06930453845128158,
      "9": 0.041299228967418715,
      "10": 0.021562896242530626,
      "11": 0.009864092220957972,
      "12": 0.003953593699542553,
      "13": 0.0013883911265463206
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "KC 5 - 6 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0848,
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      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
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      "home_runs": 6,
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      "model_winner": "CLE",
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      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
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    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 8,
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.938503716777543,
      "home_runs": 5.6118823076946684,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_LAD@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 4 - 3 DET

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 60.1% → blended 57.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=494

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7494

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.9280559513983215-3.0357429419284796	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.09742,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54871,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.45129,
    "away_win_probability": 0.54871
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.09742,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 DET",
    "confidence": 0.5487095049999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.600721,
    "sample_size": 494,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5385,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56961,
    "published_confidence": 0.54871,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7631,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.724,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7494
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.031931378178701196
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031235986536132517
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029079397105689568
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02871033118242309
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02844611502168229
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07550388632419937,
      "1": 0.12524840959374825,
      "2": 0.1701231467974005,
      "3": 0.18920946967913116,
      "4": 0.17231004794607901,
      "5": 0.12848919605262143,
      "6": 0.07845324180003305,
      "7": 0.03922323860200375,
      "8": 0.01605699526828851,
      "9": 0.0053823679364951174
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.056780962662013816,
      "1": 0.09575827999033754,
      "2": 0.1366719966446983,
      "3": 0.1650868034729114,
      "4": 0.16876205103714778,
      "5": 0.14600470405022967,
      "6": 0.10690266174228419,
      "7": 0.06624297158031475,
      "8": 0.03473927179782402,
      "9": 0.015418113271913402,
      "10": 0.005791237427519727,
      "11": 0.0018409463228052985
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 DET",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 DET",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1443,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.724,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7494,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5487,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6507,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5487,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7494,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.724,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1443,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
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        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-30T16:39:23.719710+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-30T17:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.432582,
      "confidence": 0.567418,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.432582,
      "confidence": 0.567418,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.600721,
        "sample_size": 494,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5385,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.5498,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5498,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.977148,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.6,
        "calibration_sample_size": 494,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5385,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5371,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7494,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.450165,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.977148,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.432582,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.567418
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 2,
        "sample_weight": 0.03,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 135,
          "wins": 63,
          "losses": 72,
          "win_pct": 0.4666666666666667,
          "runs_scored": 595,
          "runs_allowed": 525,
          "run_differential": 70,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5185185185185185,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 136,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 55,
          "win_pct": 0.5955882352941176,
          "runs_scored": 664,
          "runs_allowed": 516,
          "run_differential": 148,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.088235294117647,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5697,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1289,
        "quality_edge": -0.7494,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.7631,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7631,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.724,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.7494
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3147,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3147,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7494,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7631,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.849,
          "home_runs": 0.814,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.031235986536132517
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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            "probability": 0.029079397105689568
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          {
            "home_runs": 2,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07550388632419937,
          "1": 0.12524840959374825,
          "2": 0.1701231467974005,
          "3": 0.18920946967913116,
          "4": 0.17231004794607901,
          "5": 0.12848919605262143,
          "6": 0.07845324180003305,
          "7": 0.03922323860200375,
          "8": 0.01605699526828851,
          "9": 0.0053823679364951174
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.056780962662013816,
          "1": 0.09575827999033754,
          "2": 0.1366719966446983,
          "3": 0.1650868034729114,
          "4": 0.16876205103714778,
          "5": 0.14600470405022967,
          "6": 0.10690266174228419,
          "7": 0.06624297158031475,
          "8": 0.03473927179782402,
          "9": 0.015418113271913402,
          "10": 0.005791237427519727,
          "11": 0.0018409463228052985
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.9280559513983215,
      "home_runs": 3.0357429419284796,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_MIA@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickWAS

Published scoreMIA 3 - 4 WAS

Final confidence57.5%

Calibrationraw 57.4% → blended 56.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=307

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0638

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.204317444177802-5.243817095593349	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.149876,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.574938,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.574938,
    "away_win_probability": 0.425062
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.149876,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5749377,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.573874,
    "sample_size": 307,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5505,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.562187,
    "published_confidence": 0.574938,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0206,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.144,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0638
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029799131155775933
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02838312570463284
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02725562971046783
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02704939863507081
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026710240282901733
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.044821962088532535,
      "1": 0.07640204032622509,
      "2": 0.1125977418666246,
      "3": 0.1434713010653857,
      "4": 0.15805601356305538,
      "5": 0.1505454530832458,
      "6": 0.12397522170239059,
      "7": 0.08826992868301618,
      "8": 0.05433770471260349,
      "9": 0.0289201429027867,
      "10": 0.013307920917488003,
      "11": 0.005294569088645739
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07481619086889425,
      "1": 0.12418460949430729,
      "2": 0.16899224319766779,
      "3": 0.1885352571155907,
      "4": 0.17244285172100954,
      "5": 0.12930777143334787,
      "6": 0.07949336283013361,
      "7": 0.04006488716397119,
      "8": 0.01655479435979969,
      "9": 0.0056080318152780615
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0222,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.074,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0638,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5749,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5883,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5749,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0638,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.144,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0222,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
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      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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        "away": {
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.204317444177802,
      "home_runs": 5.243817095593349,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_PHI@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 5 - 2 LAA

Final confidence66.5%

Calibrationraw 74.0% → blended 64.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=201

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9531

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.680763707853413-2.633079104625021	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.330918,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.665459,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.334541,
    "away_win_probability": 0.665459
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.330918,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-2",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 2 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.665459,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.74,
    "sample_size": 201,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5572,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6486,
    "published_confidence": 0.665459,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.03,
    "away_run_delta": 0.03,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0441,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.784,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9531
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023402898953381903
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02325604089687419
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02317116754690778
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.023025763653153765
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021069310480940944
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06200359930040207,
      "1": 0.10408952641929643,
      "2": 0.14654124391660475,
      "3": 0.17301168041019804,
      "4": 0.17129854905336186,
      "5": 0.1422311278643383,
      "6": 0.09903719533440072,
      "7": 0.05783153521842706,
      "8": 0.028320037191467765,
      "9": 0.011630158320323611,
      "10": 0.004005346971179426
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026276375926669836,
      "1": 0.04556146066029357,
      "2": 0.07067675501117741,
      "3": 0.09808494543303006,
      "4": 0.12177969967684928,
      "5": 0.13526773971500272,
      "6": 0.13441890652547747,
      "7": 0.11950147719073037,
      "8": 0.09504581081312458,
      "9": 0.06763001388829981,
      "10": 0.04305194372186616,
      "11": 0.024518440408919404,
      "12": 0.012492222478560898,
      "13": 0.005694208549998519
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0063,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.134,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0063,
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        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_PIT@STL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 5 - 4 STL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 60.8% → blended 58.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=269

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3024

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.222458089020154-3.5855479909829073	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.119498,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.559749,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.440251,
    "away_win_probability": 0.559749
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.119498,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 STL",
    "confidence": 0.5597485825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.608325,
    "sample_size": 269,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5688,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.588562,
    "published_confidence": 0.559749,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2628,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.376,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3024
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02506983626598207
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02478648665269185
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024651357948160174
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02437273814914824
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02221744885492926
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057615857002140135,
      "1": 0.09709434307924866,
      "2": 0.13827131040000873,
      "3": 0.16640120962105256,
      "4": 0.1692260153957358,
      "5": 0.14543335657229003,
      "6": 0.10562024633317586,
      "7": 0.06482112643751699,
      "8": 0.033618026938729936,
      "9": 0.014733777845092985,
      "10": 0.005456853106231504,
      "11": 0.0017078772687768296
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03733046551180832,
      "1": 0.06405827885591543,
      "2": 0.0963148587453102,
      "3": 0.12688710379289153,
      "4": 0.146469717405616,
      "5": 0.14814410306450898,
      "6": 0.13128861305972167,
      "7": 0.10194734459868317,
      "8": 0.06936349096298274,
      "9": 0.04135158235417735,
      "10": 0.02160028540830046,
      "11": 0.00988628241771397,
      "12": 0.0039647216464833825,
      "13": 0.0013931521758870436
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 STL",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 STL",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0559,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.446,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3024,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5597,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5966,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5597,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3024,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.376,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0559,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-30T17:45:14.035100+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-30T18:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.417303,
      "confidence": 0.582697,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.417303,
      "confidence": 0.582697,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.608325,
        "sample_size": 269,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5688,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.588562
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.5804,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5804,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.959233,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.986,
        "calibration_sample_size": 269,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5688,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5645,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3024,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.419605,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.959233,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.417303,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.582697
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -9.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "STL",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 68,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.49635036496350365,
          "runs_scored": 606,
          "runs_allowed": 620,
          "run_differential": -14,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.10218978102189781,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PIT",
          "games": 137,
          "wins": 66,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.48175182481751827,
          "runs_scored": 664,
          "runs_allowed": 639,
          "run_differential": 25,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.18248175182481752,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2847,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0146,
        "quality_edge": -0.3024,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.2628,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.2628,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.376,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.3024
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02506983626598207
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02478648665269185
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.024651357948160174
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02437273814914824
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 6,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.057615857002140135,
          "1": 0.09709434307924866,
          "2": 0.13827131040000873,
          "3": 0.16640120962105256,
          "4": 0.1692260153957358,
          "5": 0.14543335657229003,
          "6": 0.10562024633317586,
          "7": 0.06482112643751699,
          "8": 0.033618026938729936,
          "9": 0.014733777845092985,
          "10": 0.005456853106231504,
          "11": 0.0017078772687768296
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03733046551180832,
          "1": 0.06405827885591543,
          "2": 0.0963148587453102,
          "3": 0.12688710379289153,
          "4": 0.146469717405616,
          "5": 0.14814410306450898,
          "6": 0.13128861305972167,
          "7": 0.10194734459868317,
          "8": 0.06936349096298274,
          "9": 0.04135158235417735,
          "10": 0.02160028540830046,
          "11": 0.00988628241771397,
          "12": 0.0039647216464833825,
          "13": 0.0013931521758870436
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.222458089020154,
      "home_runs": 3.5855479909829073,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_SD@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreSD 3 - 4 TB

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.1% · weight 50.0% · n=341

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2854

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.192596656611255-4.77642851500639	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.067354,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533677,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.533677,
    "away_win_probability": 0.466323
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.067354,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 3 - 4 TB",
    "confidence": 0.53367717,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 341,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52045,
    "published_confidence": 0.533677,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.045,
    "away_run_delta": -0.045,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4176,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2854
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0368149958441047
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03383497190628602
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03331348925322261
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.033252596095916284
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03251350239950454
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07651494507663306,
      "1": 0.12680989183039168,
      "2": 0.1717734989048726,
      "3": 0.19017584762612963,
      "4": 0.17208805571901434,
      "5": 0.12727475327553026,
      "6": 0.0769360647314199,
      "7": 0.03801139792631751,
      "8": 0.01534948764782659,
      "9": 0.005066057261864534
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08035867715029149,
      "1": 0.13271853755925647,
      "2": 0.1779141375134178,
      "3": 0.19358397138042477,
      "4": 0.17096546593773287,
      "5": 0.12255399043060448,
      "6": 0.07130608337940449,
      "7": 0.03367485792373399,
      "8": 0.012908180359994583,
      "9": 0.004016098365139059
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0871,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.39,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2854,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6024,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2854,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.04,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0871,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-30T16:38:48.613541+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-30T17:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546612,
      "confidence": 0.546612,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
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          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3117,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.192596656611255,
      "home_runs": 4.77642851500639,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_SEA@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreSEA 5 - 4 TOR

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 58.4% → blended 55.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.1% · weight 50.0% · n=341

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1184

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.136523084471295-2.50667909824074	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.584053,
    "sample_size": 341,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.557426,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0896,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.172,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1184
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022365772326329334
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022237854050450433
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02219253230915121
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02206560485818045
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019685100906079753
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03970866125539919,
      "1": 0.06799443606327596,
      "2": 0.10158280819789958,
      "3": 0.1324115167689592,
      "4": 0.15058787816299926,
      "5": 0.1494214598422215,
      "6": 0.12935840257757888,
      "7": 0.09770910163991263,
      "8": 0.06439232469526862,
      "9": 0.037024729638900356,
      "10": 0.018574126334368914,
      "11": 0.008129870016247627,
      "12": 0.003104684806968335
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03801596168215889,
      "1": 0.06519377344523054,
      "2": 0.09783831808265976,
      "3": 0.12849154735478757,
      "4": 0.14767359977261746,
      "5": 0.14852305908793126,
      "6": 0.1307216832205592,
      "7": 0.10068484333077503,
      "8": 0.06786459903369775,
      "9": 0.040029963852521305,
      "10": 0.020662831301320593,
      "11": 0.009333771906052944,
      "12": 0.003689667738109463,
      "13": 0.001276380191577947
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0941,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.242,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1184,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.608,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1184,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.172,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0941,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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      {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
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    },
    "champion_reference": {
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "away": {
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    },
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  "score_evolution": [
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260830_TEX@MIL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreTEX 4 - 5 MIL

Final confidence57.7%

Calibrationraw 68.1% → blended 62.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.0% · weight 50.0% · n=263

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.522

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.237670085050836-4.772112674657303	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.153656,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.576828,
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        "away_run_delta": -0.0525,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 136,
          "wins": 85,
          "losses": 51,
          "win_pct": 0.625,
          "runs_scored": 679,
          "runs_allowed": 499,
          "run_differential": 180,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3235294117647058,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 136,
          "wins": 66,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.4852941176470588,
          "runs_scored": 547,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": -54,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.39705882352941174,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.7206,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1397,
        "quality_edge": 1.522,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.9301,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.9301,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.764,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.522
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 2.4352,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 2.4352,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.522,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.9301,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.376,
          "home_runs": 7.448,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.022433481628931672
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.022211727776144028
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.021249205253006394
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02103915791343283
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020256781902618207
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0266144770997481,
          "1": 0.04613244064409691,
          "2": 0.0714914917110688,
          "3": 0.09905165125568029,
          "4": 0.12269546601277172,
          "5": 0.13587975108696626,
          "6": 0.13453658648961278,
          "7": 0.11909279827081003,
          "8": 0.09425188155597009,
          "9": 0.06668896716921033,
          "10": 0.04218687806242778,
          "11": 0.023859438422601912,
          "12": 0.01206430980067283,
          "13": 0.00545386241836215
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05160469348074884,
          "1": 0.08743022205532225,
          "2": 0.12652057688022822,
          "3": 0.1563824269843297,
          "4": 0.1650980477184839,
          "5": 0.148875464684235,
          "6": 0.11466517171468465,
          "7": 0.07543399781804057,
          "8": 0.04238673136377964,
          "9": 0.020343231129649565,
          "10": 0.008339444883753004,
          "11": 0.0029199912867447163
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.237670085050836,
      "home_runs": 4.772112674657303,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260830	20260830_BAL@OAK	BAL	55.1%	65.8%	54.6%	50.0%	8.0-6.0	8-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.657791, "sample_size": 416, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5457, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.601746, "published_confidence": 0.551397, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3824, "recent_quality_edge": -0.424, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0469 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015974788274563327 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01577347945837807 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015422587015736783 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015228236850883852 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014915391177454097 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.022376795280055737, "1": 0.03894641553865575, "2": 0.061102468139541434, "3": 0.08641152479587301, "4": 0.11015551353310704, "5": 0.12657923471638297, "6": 0.13111136753433147, "7": 0.12241647907780893, "8": 0.10302937768633319, "9": 0.07816348676384247, "10": 0.05345254989701715, "11": 0.032949936818779425, "12": 0.018308906218665537, "13": 0.009170475808061525, "14": 0.004140406619990163, "15": 0.001685061571554347 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.016393380028918127, "1": 0.028711383273443174, "2": 0.04589796101020265, "3": 0.06697093075415349, "4": 0.08919344591858794, "5": 0.10842594526744075, "6": 0.12030596396798159, "7": 0.1218413671902273, "8": 0.11263050619512327, "9": 0.09503224181022557, "10": 0.07318794935417634, "11": 0.051447212561460814, "12": 0.033009411829526644, "13": 0.019331581675886347, "14": 0.010333576464109777, "15": 0.005041822966189875, "16": 0.002245319732346159 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 8 - 6 OAK", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 8 - 6 OAK", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.076, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.494, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "OAK", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0469, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_BOS@NYY	BOS	53.0%	54.7%	53.1%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-16	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.546861, "sample_size": 341, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.538831, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0551, "recent_quality_edge": 0.152, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.089 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026182148416179652 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024483142489400995 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024430465211072967 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02410890154841204 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024069593571179902 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04920334437611725, "1": 0.08354074935406167, "2": 0.1216723912368558, "3": 0.15201122311822196, "4": 0.16291054510097433, "5": 0.14976580785924606, "6": 0.11810440157386531, "7": 0.0798931282764572, "8": 0.04635992269464221, "9": 0.023076286001948658, "10": 0.009853239878849226, "11": 0.003608960528760506 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04709217975090333, "1": 0.08010775877746294, "2": 0.11733684122581167, "3": 0.14798858805284207, "4": 0.16071487821707045, "5": 0.15028580546597511, "6": 0.12100793949722072, "7": 0.08389648997374029, "8": 0.050085007103052595, "9": 0.025745759668327817, "10": 0.011395613339195546, "11": 0.004343138928397255 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 NYY", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 NYY", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0323, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.082, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.089, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_CHW@MIN	CHW	68.7%	85.1%	55.8%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	1-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.851334, "sample_size": 104, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.704517, "published_confidence": 0.686674, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8908, "recent_quality_edge": -0.656, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8087 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.019781561946885656 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019414270018485853 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.018454695019687096 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.018414446535584543 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.018189766567636833 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04917387487081112, "1": 0.08349291567197355, "2": 0.1216123443210738, "3": 0.15195623722907323, "4": 0.1628816795268574, "5": 0.1497748123577581, "6": 0.11814576723143212, "7": 0.07994851237431665, "8": 0.04641041423534641, "9": 0.023111777069776268, "10": 0.009873339534436087, "11": 0.0036183255771454724 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01597135688603828, "1": 0.027985294318986432, "2": 0.044799845700306616, "3": 0.06552118339962465, "4": 0.08754785750401581, "5": 0.106872972077064, "6": 0.11919247195191558, "7": 0.1214474335256587, "8": 0.1130541297773652, "9": 0.09614862908121749, "10": 0.07470649072453359, "11": 0.05303128508009055, "12": 0.034392562989669445, "13": 0.020377716057101276, "14": 0.011030750121833362, "15": 0.005455231207986948, "16": 0.0024647895965920256 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 4 MIN", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 4 MIN", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1054, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.726, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8087, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_CIN@CHC	CHC	56.0%	89.9%	55.2%	50.0%	4.0-7.0	7-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.898786, "sample_size": 181, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5525, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.725643, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 12.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.9007, "recent_quality_edge": 0.632, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4567 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018707660646211335 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01819312026690919 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01767755919259673 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01767732074961149 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017191119107644415 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.013393019302852737, "1": 0.023535993405363272, "2": 0.03800818196948158, "3": 0.056404296082539565, "4": 0.07691973771674335, "5": 0.0963948717305825, "6": 0.11100961306470708, "7": 0.11747833210772064, "8": 0.11424717741095572, "9": 0.10209952236777126, "10": 0.08384795321827732, "11": 0.06327785441422033, "12": 0.04388352931628209, "13": 0.02796674197915618, "14": 0.01637844727683172, "15": 0.008814427347359726, "16": 0.004359192040618424, "17": 0.0019811092485365485 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.045802803162807375, "1": 0.07800487476728889, "2": 0.11465506587193876, "3": 0.14544760374143462, "4": 0.15924349886971093, "5": 0.15047303134506915, "6": 0.1227149422047698, "7": 0.08637300759879563, "8": 0.05246871836087079, "9": 0.027508359261394062, "10": 0.012447173338060306, "11": 0.004860921477859774 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.037, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.702, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "CIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4567, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_COL@ATL	ATL	58.0%	68.1%	57.0%	50.0%	3.0-6.0	2-3	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.681323, "sample_size": 263, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5703, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.625811, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 18.0, "absolute_net_margin": 18.0, "home_average_margin": 3.6, "home_run_delta": 0.1038, "away_run_delta": -0.1038, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.2096, "recent_quality_edge": 0.784, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.7106 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026140884284446036 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025058143067878583 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025050659237056426 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02405932045121474 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024013074549292607 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.033599373828346275, "1": 0.05785432175870547, "2": 0.0878885139371987, "3": 0.11779317495654473, "4": 0.13928354959306613, "5": 0.14530187423610588, "6": 0.13373167932534832, "7": 0.10858980971320915, "8": 0.07779210758119007, "9": 0.04916699833720267, "10": 0.02741596548066389, "11": 0.013487302114497035, "12": 0.005853805910034059, "13": 0.0022415232278874225 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06723898679316102, "1": 0.1123532571212668, "2": 0.1559773843081978, "3": 0.17990741290761905, "4": 0.17240424026706477, "5": 0.13726451726637592, "6": 0.0907987961423067, "7": 0.049901471598856134, "8": 0.022785474407635578, "9": 0.008643990019071556, "10": 0.0027244691684447137 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "COL 3 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "COL 3 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0198, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.134, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.7106, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_HOU@NYM	NYM	54.2%	58.0%	53.5%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.579851, "sample_size": 456, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5351, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.557475, "published_confidence": 0.541648, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.015, "away_run_delta": -0.015, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1066, "recent_quality_edge": -0.068, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0931 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02405455636938107 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023892487190907804 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022618180084964582 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02246578858754347 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022054847154431505 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03958473509404075, "1": 0.06778988217809125, "2": 0.10131149725565837, "3": 0.132132394960587, "4": 0.15038918246469138, "5": 0.14937592531377825, "6": 0.12947959643985804, "7": 0.09794421373167643, "8": 0.0646566128721377, "9": 0.0372480750581515, "10": 0.018726276702202938, "11": 0.008215911590989711, "12": 0.0031456963381367277 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.046409789035091985, "1": 0.07899541306986005, "2": 0.11592074428640795, "3": 0.1466518189206167, "4": 0.15994871423035123, "5": 0.1503976530378102, "6": 0.12191815206684932, "7": 0.08520453095878391, "8": 0.05133623509557784, "9": 0.026665660572876407, "10": 0.011941192090640653, "11": 0.004610096635133618 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0046, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.068, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0931, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_KC@CLE	CLE	53.0%	56.4%	53.1%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	1-11	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.564172, "sample_size": 341, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.547486, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5158, "recent_quality_edge": -0.516, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1547 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021802441035183154 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021560775511333927 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021288681980659193 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021052711133421796 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019618781838753624 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03581780269645805, "1": 0.061547866370588504, "2": 0.09292608392257384, "3": 0.1232743836725617, "4": 0.1436873764529112, "5": 0.14715497913214431, "6": 0.1324164311427814, "7": 0.1046934151428879, "8": 0.07272896816009952, "9": 0.04439213742106174, "10": 0.023807580272681674, "11": 0.011218506125344372, "12": 0.004644782395603723, "13": 0.001689687092302164 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0373572809100813, "1": 0.06410272263301892, "2": 0.09637459690202335, "3": 0.12695024834150226, "4": 0.14651747184152347, "5": 0.14815972360408333, "6": 0.13126706752378678, "7": 0.10189814753570256, "8": 0.06930453845128158, "9": 0.041299228967418715, "10": 0.021562896242530626, "11": 0.009864092220957972, "12": 0.003953593699542553, "13": 0.0013883911265463206 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "KC 5 - 6 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "KC 5 - 6 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0848, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.586, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1547, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_LAD@DET	LAD	54.9%	60.1%	53.8%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	6-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.600721, "sample_size": 494, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5385, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.56961, "published_confidence": 0.54871, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7631, "recent_quality_edge": -0.724, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7494 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.031931378178701196 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031235986536132517 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029079397105689568 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02871033118242309 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02844611502168229 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07550388632419937, "1": 0.12524840959374825, "2": 0.1701231467974005, "3": 0.18920946967913116, "4": 0.17231004794607901, "5": 0.12848919605262143, "6": 0.07845324180003305, "7": 0.03922323860200375, "8": 0.01605699526828851, "9": 0.0053823679364951174 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.056780962662013816, "1": 0.09575827999033754, "2": 0.1366719966446983, "3": 0.1650868034729114, "4": 0.16876205103714778, "5": 0.14600470405022967, "6": 0.10690266174228419, "7": 0.06624297158031475, "8": 0.03473927179782402, "9": 0.015418113271913402, "10": 0.005791237427519727, "11": 0.0018409463228052985 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1443, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.724, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7494, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_MIA@WAS	WAS	57.5%	57.4%	55.0%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	6-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.573874, "sample_size": 307, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5505, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.562187, "published_confidence": 0.574938, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0206, "recent_quality_edge": 0.144, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0638 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029799131155775933 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02838312570463284 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02725562971046783 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02704939863507081 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.026710240282901733 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.044821962088532535, "1": 0.07640204032622509, "2": 0.1125977418666246, "3": 0.1434713010653857, "4": 0.15805601356305538, "5": 0.1505454530832458, "6": 0.12397522170239059, "7": 0.08826992868301618, "8": 0.05433770471260349, "9": 0.0289201429027867, "10": 0.013307920917488003, "11": 0.005294569088645739 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07481619086889425, "1": 0.12418460949430729, "2": 0.16899224319766779, "3": 0.1885352571155907, "4": 0.17244285172100954, "5": 0.12930777143334787, "6": 0.07949336283013361, "7": 0.04006488716397119, "8": 0.01655479435979969, "9": 0.0056080318152780615 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0222, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.074, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0638, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_PHI@LAA	PHI	66.5%	74.0%	55.7%	50.0%	5.0-2.0	5-2	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.74, "sample_size": 201, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5572, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6486, "published_confidence": 0.665459, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.03, "away_run_delta": 0.03, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0441, "recent_quality_edge": -0.784, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9531 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023402898953381903 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02325604089687419 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02317116754690778 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.023025763653153765 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021069310480940944 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06200359930040207, "1": 0.10408952641929643, "2": 0.14654124391660475, "3": 0.17301168041019804, "4": 0.17129854905336186, "5": 0.1422311278643383, "6": 0.09903719533440072, "7": 0.05783153521842706, "8": 0.028320037191467765, "9": 0.011630158320323611, "10": 0.004005346971179426 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.026276375926669836, "1": 0.04556146066029357, "2": 0.07067675501117741, "3": 0.09808494543303006, "4": 0.12177969967684928, "5": 0.13526773971500272, "6": 0.13441890652547747, "7": 0.11950147719073037, "8": 0.09504581081312458, "9": 0.06763001388829981, "10": 0.04305194372186616, "11": 0.024518440408919404, "12": 0.012492222478560898, "13": 0.005694208549998519 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 2 LAA", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 2 LAA", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0063, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.134, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9531, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_PIT@STL	PIT	56.0%	60.8%	56.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	5-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.608325, "sample_size": 269, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5688, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.588562, "published_confidence": 0.559749, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2628, "recent_quality_edge": -0.376, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3024 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02506983626598207 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02478648665269185 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024651357948160174 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02437273814914824 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02221744885492926 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.057615857002140135, "1": 0.09709434307924866, "2": 0.13827131040000873, "3": 0.16640120962105256, "4": 0.1692260153957358, "5": 0.14543335657229003, "6": 0.10562024633317586, "7": 0.06482112643751699, "8": 0.033618026938729936, "9": 0.014733777845092985, "10": 0.005456853106231504, "11": 0.0017078772687768296 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03733046551180832, "1": 0.06405827885591543, "2": 0.0963148587453102, "3": 0.12688710379289153, "4": 0.146469717405616, "5": 0.14814410306450898, "6": 0.13128861305972167, "7": 0.10194734459868317, "8": 0.06936349096298274, "9": 0.04135158235417735, "10": 0.02160028540830046, "11": 0.00988628241771397, "12": 0.0039647216464833825, "13": 0.0013931521758870436 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 STL", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 STL", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0559, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.446, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3024, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_SD@TB	TB	53.4%	51.0%	53.1%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-5	hit	Variance Applied (0.4162)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 341, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52045, "published_confidence": 0.533677, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.045, "away_run_delta": -0.045, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4176, "recent_quality_edge": 0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2854 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0368149958441047 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03383497190628602 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03331348925322261 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.033252596095916284 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03251350239950454 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07651494507663306, "1": 0.12680989183039168, "2": 0.1717734989048726, "3": 0.19017584762612963, "4": 0.17208805571901434, "5": 0.12727475327553026, "6": 0.0769360647314199, "7": 0.03801139792631751, "8": 0.01534948764782659, "9": 0.005066057261864534 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08035867715029149, "1": 0.13271853755925647, "2": 0.1779141375134178, "3": 0.19358397138042477, "4": 0.17096546593773287, "5": 0.12255399043060448, "6": 0.07130608337940449, "7": 0.03367485792373399, "8": 0.012908180359994583, "9": 0.004016098365139059 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0871, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.39, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2854, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_SEA@TOR	SEA	53.0%	58.4%	53.1%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	0-7	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.584053, "sample_size": 341, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5308, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.557426, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0896, "recent_quality_edge": 0.172, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1184 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022365772326329334 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022237854050450433 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02219253230915121 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02206560485818045 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019685100906079753 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03970866125539919, "1": 0.06799443606327596, "2": 0.10158280819789958, "3": 0.1324115167689592, "4": 0.15058787816299926, "5": 0.1494214598422215, "6": 0.12935840257757888, "7": 0.09770910163991263, "8": 0.06439232469526862, "9": 0.037024729638900356, "10": 0.018574126334368914, "11": 0.008129870016247627, "12": 0.003104684806968335 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03801596168215889, "1": 0.06519377344523054, "2": 0.09783831808265976, "3": 0.12849154735478757, "4": 0.14767359977261746, "5": 0.14852305908793126, "6": 0.1307216832205592, "7": 0.10068484333077503, "8": 0.06786459903369775, "9": 0.040029963852521305, "10": 0.020662831301320593, "11": 0.009333771906052944, "12": 0.003689667738109463, "13": 0.001276380191577947 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 TOR", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 TOR", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0941, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.242, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1184, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260830	20260830_TEX@MIL	MIL	57.7%	68.1%	57.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	7-4	miss	Variance Applied (0.4656)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.681296, "sample_size": 263, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5703, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.625798, "published_confidence": 0.576828, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 3.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0525, "away_run_delta": -0.0525, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.9301, "recent_quality_edge": 0.764, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.522 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022433481628931672 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022211727776144028 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021249205253006394 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02103915791343283 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020256781902618207 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0266144770997481, "1": 0.04613244064409691, "2": 0.0714914917110688, "3": 0.09905165125568029, "4": 0.12269546601277172, "5": 0.13587975108696626, "6": 0.13453658648961278, "7": 0.11909279827081003, "8": 0.09425188155597009, "9": 0.06668896716921033, "10": 0.04218687806242778, "11": 0.023859438422601912, "12": 0.01206430980067283, "13": 0.00545386241836215 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05160469348074884, "1": 0.08743022205532225, "2": 0.12652057688022822, "3": 0.1563824269843297, "4": 0.1650980477184839, "5": 0.148875464684235, "6": 0.11466517171468465, "7": 0.07543399781804057, "8": 0.04238673136377964, "9": 0.020343231129649565, "10": 0.008339444883753004, "11": 0.0029199912867447163 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0249, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.114, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.522, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.5 }
R	{ "mae": 1.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0357 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.7857, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1429 }
BB	{ "mae": 0.8929, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.25 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.1429, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2143 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8929, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0357 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.3571, "mae_innings": 1.119, "bias_outs": -0.9286 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260830

20260830_BAL@OAK

away

Chris Bassitt

True

5.0

5.2

7/8

1/3

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.743243243243243,
      "WHIP": 1.554054054054054,
      "IP": 74.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.897,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3277,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0279,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9354,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 0.9782,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.355,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 5.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 20.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 266,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 418.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 83.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.35,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 822.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 82.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9304,
            "WHIP": 1.3481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43671,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10127,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24684,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77848,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09494
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 74.0,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 335.0,
            "Pitches": 1261.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 5.9333,
            "BB": 1.7333,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.5333,
            "BF": 22.3333,
            "Pitches": 84.0667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7432,
            "WHIP": 1.5541,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52703,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2027,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35135,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68919,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10811
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.314,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.005,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.3783,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9499502677912441,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "player_name": "Chris Bassitt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4926,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": -21.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1544,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5441,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6985,
        "offense_index": 1.0174,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.3897,
        "runs_scored": 591.0,
        "runs_allowed": 779.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3824,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3456,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7279,
        "offense_index": 0.973,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -9.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.299
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3087,
        "offense_edge": 0.0174,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.027,
        "defense_strength": -0.0494,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2203,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0119,
        "run_prevention": 0.9852,
        "strikeout": 1.0114
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605135",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605135",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 309.0,
            "k_percent": 15.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.355,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4363,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5708,
            "whiff_percent": 20.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3478,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5936,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6286,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2679
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605135",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.07424126102447,
              "release_spin_rate": 2163.0290515294796,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.07424126102447,
                "release_spin_rate": 2163.0290515294796,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0742,
              "release_spin_rate": 2163.0291,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2679,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9138,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3277,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0279,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9354,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 0.9782,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "605135",
            "espn_id": 33148,
            "player_name": "Chris Bassitt",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 266,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 266,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 441,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 146,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 4.7432,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 127,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 168,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 74.0,
              "ip_rank": 163,
              "h_value": 89.0,
              "h_rank": 117,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 142,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 193,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 191,
              "k_value": 51.0,
              "k_rank": 265,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.2027025,
              "k_per_9_rank": 43,
              "whip_value": 1.554,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.4,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9782,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9354,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_BAL@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_BAL@OAK

home

Jeffrey Springs

True

4.0

4.2

5/6

1/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.084507042253521,
      "WHIP": 1.495774647887324,
      "IP": 118.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.931,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3794,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0323,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9617,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.0436,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.372,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 745,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 97.0,
            "Pitches": 374.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 74.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0968,
            "WHIP": 1.8387,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67742,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25806,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58065,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.3871,
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                "release_speed": 85.87226981566755,
                "release_spin_rate": 2002.2499973783792,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8723,
              "release_spin_rate": 2002.25,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2232,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5946,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3794,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0323,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9617,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 1.0436,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.032,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605488",
            "espn_id": 35397,
            "player_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 745,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 745,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 310,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 59,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 119,
              "era_value": 6.0845,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 232,
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": 4,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 118.1,
              "ip_rank": 87,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 42,
              "er_value": 80.0,
              "er_rank": 3,
              "hr_value": 30.0,
              "hr_rank": 2,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 92.0,
              "k_rank": 106,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.997183,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.4957,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.45,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0436,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9617,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_BAL@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_BOS@NYY

away

Ranger Suarez

True

5.0

5.1

5/9

0/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3464788732394366,
      "WHIP": 1.2,
      "IP": 118.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.145,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2582,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9781,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9095,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 4.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 81,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 118.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.346,
      "season_WHIP": 1.2,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 402.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 80.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.3913,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47826,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6087,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08696
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 810.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5379,
            "WHIP": 1.2414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3931,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91034,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33103,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97241,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06207
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 118.1,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 105.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 491.0,
            "Pitches": 1912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.913,
            "R": 2.0435,
            "H": 4.5652,
            "BB": 1.6087,
            "SO": 5.087,
            "HR": 0.3043,
            "BF": 21.3478,
            "Pitches": 83.1304
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3465,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37183,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88732,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31268,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98873,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05915
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.18,
        "predicted_H": 4.393,
        "predicted_BB": 1.861,
        "predicted_SO": 3.991,
        "predicted_HR": 0.41,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1046,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3081
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.18,
          "final": 2.5289,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.393,
          "final": 4.6513,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.861,
          "final": 1.0692,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.991,
          "final": 4.4203,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.41,
          "final": 0.661,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1046,
          "final": 4.1046,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3081,
          "final": 1.3081,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.5379310344827584,
        "WHIP": 1.2413793103448276,
        "K9": 8.751724137931035,
        "HR9": 0.5586206896551724,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.903131738764618,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5441,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 509.0,
        "run_differential": 99.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7279,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4706,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7426,
        "offense_index": 1.0008,
        "defense_index": 1.1936,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1621
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5662,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 504.0,
        "run_differential": 102.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4559,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7059,
        "offense_index": 0.9975,
        "defense_index": 1.2054,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1836
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0215,
        "offense_edge": 0.0008,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0025,
        "defense_strength": 0.1936,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2054,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.005,
        "run_prevention": 0.9813,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "624133",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "624133",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 467.0,
            "k_percent": 23.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.9011,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0261,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 45.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4956,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0793,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3286,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2143
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "624133",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.0327454593224,
              "release_spin_rate": 1975.9626802659607,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.0327454593224,
                "release_spin_rate": 1975.9626802659607,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.0327,
              "release_spin_rate": 1975.9627,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2143,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5304,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2582,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9781,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
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          "homer_factor": 0.9095,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "624133",
            "espn_id": 39817,
            "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 81,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 81,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 326,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 68,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 75,
              "era_value": 3.3464,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 127,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 223,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 118.1,
              "ip_rank": 87,
              "h_value": 105.0,
              "h_rank": 93,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 120,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 214,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 90,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 63,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.898591,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.2,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.85,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9781,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9781,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9095,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_BOS@NYY

home

Will Warren

True

5.0

7.0

-4

4/6

3/1

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.393700787401575,
      "WHIP": 1.4173228346456692,
      "IP": 127.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.053,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2674,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0227,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0679,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 323,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701542",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.32,
            "WHIP": 1.44,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 192.0,
            "Pitches": 768.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 76.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6512,
            "WHIP": 1.5349,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16279,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37209,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97674,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25581
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 135.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 126.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 559.0,
            "Pitches": 2192.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3846,
            "R": 2.8846,
            "H": 5.1923,
            "BB": 1.7308,
            "SO": 4.8462,
            "HR": 0.7692,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 84.3077
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3937,
            "WHIP": 1.4173,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48819,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06299,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35433,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99213,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15748
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.536,
        "predicted_H": 5.209,
        "predicted_BB": 1.749,
        "predicted_SO": 4.646,
        "predicted_HR": 0.963,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7507,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4483
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.536,
          "final": 3.5663,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.209,
          "final": 4.7035,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
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          "final": 2.2721,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.646,
          "final": 4.3759,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.963,
          "final": 0.9785,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7507,
          "final": 4.7507,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4483,
          "final": 1.4483,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 11,
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        "WHIP": 1.5348837209302324,
        "K9": 8.790697674418603,
        "HR9": 2.3023255813953485,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1482079216034313,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701542",
      "player_name": "Will Warren",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5662,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 504.0,
        "run_differential": 102.0,
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        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4559,
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        "offense_index": 0.9975,
        "defense_index": 1.2054,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1836
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5441,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 509.0,
        "run_differential": 99.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7279,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4706,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7426,
        "offense_index": 1.0008,
        "defense_index": 1.1936,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1621
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0215,
        "offense_edge": -0.0025,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0008,
        "defense_strength": 0.2054,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1936,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.007,
        "run_prevention": 0.9785,
        "strikeout": 1.0006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701542",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701542",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 532.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.343,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.7798,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.175,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 43.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5174,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0643,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0242
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701542",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.29017897188778,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.6864996074655,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.29017897188778,
                "release_spin_rate": 2501.6864996074655,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2902,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.6865,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0242,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1726,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2674,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0227,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0679,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "701542",
            "espn_id": 5132011,
            "player_name": "Will Warren",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 323,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 323,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 259,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 4.3937,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 54,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 101,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 257,
              "ip_value": 127.0,
              "ip_rank": 67,
              "h_value": 135.0,
              "h_rank": 27,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 42,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 27,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 47,
              "k_value": 126.0,
              "k_rank": 49,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.929134,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.4173,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0227,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0227,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0679,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9857,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_CHW@MIN

away

Jordan Hicks

True

4.1

0.2

-11

4/1

1/2

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.825,
      "WHIP": 1.5,
      "IP": 40.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 42,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3898,
      "sample_weight": 0.64,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9669,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0223,
      "walk_factor": 1.0614,
      "homer_factor": 0.9028,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 27.4,
      "bb_percent": 14.0,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.27,
      "barrel_percent": 1.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 214,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.03,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6163,
        "prior_weight": 0.3837
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663855",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 42,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 103.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 20.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 47.0,
            "Pitches": 183.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.3,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.7,
            "Pitches": 18.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.7,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.3,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.4,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 42,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 178.0,
            "Pitches": 695.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.4048,
            "R": 0.4048,
            "H": 0.8333,
            "BB": 0.5952,
            "SO": 1.1667,
            "HR": 0.0714,
            "BF": 4.2381,
            "Pitches": 16.5476
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.825,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.425,
            "H_per_IP": 0.875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.225,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.466,
        "predicted_H": 2.73,
        "predicted_BB": 1.165,
        "predicted_SO": 3.23,
        "predicted_HR": 0.406,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0235,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4827
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5121,
      "form_weight": 0.4879,
      "form_reliability": 0.6163,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.03,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6163,
        "prior_weight": 0.3837
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.466,
          "final": 2.2516,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.73,
          "final": 3.3804,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.165,
          "final": 1.0805,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.23,
          "final": 4.6486,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.406,
          "final": 1.2223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0235,
          "final": 5.0235,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4827,
          "final": 1.4827,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 10.0,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 13,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 14,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 5.4,
        "WHIP": 1.7,
        "K9": 12.6,
        "HR9": 1.8,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0405254352671764,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.03,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6163,
          "prior_weight": 0.3837
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663855",
      "player_name": "Jordan Hicks",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 4.1,
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            "percent_delta": -0.18,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.18,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5333,
        "runs_scored": 651.0,
        "runs_allowed": 603.0,
        "run_differential": 48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3556,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8222,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4667,
        "offense_index": 1.0805,
        "defense_index": 0.9992,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1421
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 136,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4706,
        "runs_scored": 621.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": -60.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4412,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5662,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0074,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1494
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2915,
        "offense_edge": 0.0805,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0231,
        "defense_strength": -0.0008,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0107,
        "run_prevention": 0.9892,
        "strikeout": 1.0069
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663855",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663855",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 160.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.27,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2783,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5261,
            "whiff_percent": 25.9,
            "swing_percent": 44.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7781,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1407,
            "regression_edge": 1.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2,
            "barrel_edge": 1.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -1.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663855",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 20,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 20,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.97291791079823,
              "release_spin_rate": 2066.0942966264947,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 20,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.97291791079823,
                "release_spin_rate": 2066.0942966264947,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.9729,
              "release_spin_rate": 2066.0943,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3898,
          "sample_weight": 0.64,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9669,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0223,
          "walk_factor": 1.0614,
          "homer_factor": 0.9028,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.04,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663855",
            "espn_id": 37909,
            "player_name": "Jordan Hicks",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 214,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 214,
              "gp_value": 43.0,
              "gp_rank": 133,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 292,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.825,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 296,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 408,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 132,
              "hld_value": 8.0,
              "hld_rank": 105,
              "ip_value": 40.0,
              "ip_rank": 352,
              "h_value": 36.0,
              "h_rank": 335,
              "er_value": 17.0,
              "er_rank": 351,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 417,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 199,
              "k_value": 49.0,
              "k_rank": 278,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.025,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.525,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.69,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9788,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9788,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0393,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9378,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0143,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_CHW@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_CHW@MIN

home

Zebby Matthews

True

5.2

8.1

-3

7/5

1/0

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3118971061093248,
      "IP": 103.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.759,
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      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0274,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9749,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.11,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.338,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 11.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 209,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
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            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 1.3012,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01205,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04819,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14458
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4172,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57055,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03067,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3865,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90184,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16564
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 103.2,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 61.0,
            "H": 104.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 88.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 437.0,
            "Pitches": 1675.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1111,
            "R": 3.3889,
            "H": 5.7778,
            "BB": 1.7778,
            "SO": 4.8889,
            "HR": 1.0556,
            "BF": 24.2778,
            "Pitches": 93.0556
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8617,
            "WHIP": 1.3119,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54019,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00322,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30868,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84887,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18328
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.799,
        "predicted_H": 5.617,
        "predicted_BB": 1.874,
        "predicted_SO": 5.315,
        "predicted_HR": 0.874,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5185,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3436
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.799,
          "final": 3.3297,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.617,
          "final": 6.2281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.874,
          "final": 1.4878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.315,
          "final": 6.5014,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.874,
          "final": 0.9297,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5185,
          "final": 4.5185,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3436,
          "final": 1.3436,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 49,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.134969325153374,
        "WHIP": 1.4171779141104295,
        "K9": 8.116564417177914,
        "HR9": 1.4907975460122698,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0871935115592024,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4706,
        "runs_scored": 621.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": -60.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4412,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5662,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0074,
        "offense_index": 1.0231,
        "defense_index": 0.8913,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1494
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5333,
        "runs_scored": 651.0,
        "runs_allowed": 603.0,
        "run_differential": 48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3556,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8222,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4667,
        "offense_index": 1.0805,
        "defense_index": 0.9992,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1421
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2915,
        "offense_edge": 0.0231,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0805,
        "defense_strength": -0.1087,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0008,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9819,
        "run_prevention": 1.0383,
        "strikeout": 0.9848
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805673",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805673",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 409.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.338,
            "xwoba": 0.328,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.3688,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7723,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5559,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1536,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0014
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805673",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.8834097777443,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.73417209907,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.8834097777443,
                "release_spin_rate": 2245.73417209907,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8834,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.7342,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0014,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0099,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3225,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0274,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9749,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 1.11,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "805673",
            "espn_id": 4791597,
            "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 209,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 209,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 397,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 105,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 60,
              "era_value": 4.8617,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 54,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 103.2,
              "ip_rank": 107,
              "h_value": 104.0,
              "h_rank": 98,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 64,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 35,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 128,
              "k_value": 88.0,
              "k_rank": 117,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6398716,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.3118,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.74,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.11,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9749,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_CHW@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_CIN@CHC

away

Chase Burns

True

5.2

-2

3/6

1/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.7708830548926016,
      "WHIP": 1.152744630071599,
      "IP": 139.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.587,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4878,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9585,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 0.9878,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.277,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 31.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 10,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 139.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.771,
      "season_WHIP": 1.153,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695505",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.2963,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03704
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 913.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 91.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3148,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94444,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14815,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.2,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 112.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 164.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 567.0,
            "Pitches": 2302.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.72,
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          "rates": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.2855,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "695505",
      "player_name": "Chase Burns",
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      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
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              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": -1.0,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
          "run_differential": -21.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 136,
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        "losses": 59,
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        "runs_scored": 720.0,
        "runs_allowed": 591.0,
        "run_differential": 129.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9485,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2941,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3456,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 27.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1376
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0767,
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        "defense_strength": -0.094,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9766
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695505",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695505",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 1.0,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695505",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.3649,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 1.8025,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.4878,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Chase Burns",
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            "espn_rank": 10,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
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              "w_rank": 4,
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              "h_rank": 82,
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              "er_rank": 125,
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              "hr_rank": 91,
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              "k_value": 164.0,
              "k_rank": 14,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.568019,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8,
              "whip_value": 1.1527,
              "whip_rank": 23.0,
              "war_value": 4.51,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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            "factor": 0.9585,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9878,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_CIN@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_CIN@CHC

home

Shota Imanaga

True

5.1

5.0

-1

5/8

1/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.59,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "quality_score": 0.1728,
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
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      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.313,
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      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 29.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 103,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
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            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.0,
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            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.6,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.0274,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20548,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27397,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.32877
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        },
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            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
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            "H": 5.5,
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            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
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            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
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            "H_per_IP": 1.03125,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.05,
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        },
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            "H": 129.0,
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            "SO": 144.0,
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            "Pitches": 2328.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.3462,
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.88761,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23394,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99083,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20642
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 5.245,
        "predicted_BB": 1.247,
        "predicted_SO": 5.825,
        "predicted_HR": 1.249,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6861,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2333
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 5.1426,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.1437,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "H": 55,
        "BB": 11,
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        "K9": 9.45,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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      "total_change": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "movement_score": -0.1872,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3373,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1728,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.036,
          "walk_factor": 0.93,
          "homer_factor": 1.0271,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_id": 5134630,
            "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 103,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 103,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 259,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 38,
              "era_value": 3.7775,
              "era_rank": 32.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 54,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 23,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 145.1,
              "ip_rank": 32,
              "h_value": 129.0,
              "h_rank": 40,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 49,
              "hr_value": 30.0,
              "hr_rank": 2,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 118,
              "k_value": 144.0,
              "k_rank": 27,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.917432,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.1215,
              "whip_rank": 18.0,
              "war_value": 1.6,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9853,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9853,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.93,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0271,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.036,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_CIN@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_COL@ATL

away

Mason Adams

True

3.2

5.0

-2

4/5

1/2

4/5

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.25,
      "WHIP": 1.5,
      "IP": 4.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0299,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
      "walk_factor": 0.9991,
      "homer_factor": 0.9979,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.3075,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 341,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.75,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.75,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.75,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.83,
        "predicted_H": 3.746,
        "predicted_BB": 1.729,
        "predicted_SO": 3.965,
        "predicted_HR": 0.653,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1174,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3688
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7021,
      "form_weight": 0.2979,
      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.83,
          "final": 3.3535,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.746,
          "final": 3.9243,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.729,
          "final": 1.2172,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.965,
          "final": 3.9896,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.653,
          "final": 0.8966,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1174,
          "final": 4.1174,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3688,
          "final": 1.3688,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 4.0,
        "ER": 1,
        "H": 3,
        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.25,
        "WHIP": 1.5,
        "K9": 11.25,
        "HR9": 2.25,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9692603785480646,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "player_name": "Mason Adams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.3824,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 783.0,
        "run_differential": -141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0368,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7206,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7574,
        "offense_index": 1.0567,
        "defense_index": 0.7759,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3326
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5956,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 517.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8529,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6544,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8015,
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        "current_streak": "W6",
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          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2563
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5889,
        "offense_edge": 0.0567,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0419,
        "defense_strength": -0.2241,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1751,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.968,
        "run_prevention": 1.0586,
        "strikeout": 0.979
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690279",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690279",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 22.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3075,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8771,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.087,
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            "regression_edge": -0.0143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
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            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "690279",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0299,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.0005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690279",
            "espn_id": 4758424,
            "player_name": "Mason Adams",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 341,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 341,
              "gp_value": 1.0,
              "gp_rank": 767,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 292,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 2.25,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 514,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 560,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 4.0,
              "ip_rank": 716,
              "h_value": 3.0,
              "h_rank": 753,
              "er_value": 1.0,
              "er_rank": 757,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 588,
              "bb_value": 3.0,
              "bb_rank": 655,
              "k_value": 5.0,
              "k_rank": 664,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.25,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.5,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.2,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 66,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_COL@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_COL@ATL

home

Tyler Mahle

True

5.2

6.2

-2

6/5

2/0

4/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.3183098591549296,
      "IP": 118.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.379,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.12,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0102,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 1.01,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 173,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
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            "SO": 6.4,
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            "Pitches": 90.8
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0568,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23864,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 897.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
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            "Pitches": 89.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1607,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91071,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08929
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 118.1,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 112.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 497.0,
            "Pitches": 1933.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6364,
            "R": 2.6818,
            "H": 5.1818,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4113,
            "WHIP": 1.3183,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49014,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96338,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35493,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94648,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13521
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.217,
        "predicted_H": 5.086,
        "predicted_BB": 1.692,
        "predicted_SO": 5.665,
        "predicted_HR": 0.642,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4797,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.182
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "final": 2.5523,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 5.4774,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.8239,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.4797,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.214285714285714,
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        "K9": 8.196428571428571,
        "HR9": 0.8035714285714285,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.864705014626687,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8015,
        "offense_index": 1.0419,
        "defense_index": 1.1751,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2563
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.3824,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 783.0,
        "run_differential": -141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0368,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7206,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7574,
        "offense_index": 1.0567,
        "defense_index": 0.7759,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3326
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5889,
        "offense_edge": 0.0419,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0567,
        "defense_strength": 0.1751,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2241,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0265,
        "run_prevention": 0.9621,
        "strikeout": 1.0131
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641816",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641816",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 446.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.319,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6986,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1022,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2046,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0593,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0183
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641816",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.53121594004485,
              "release_spin_rate": 2152.2110299296696,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.53121594004485,
                "release_spin_rate": 2152.2110299296696,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5312,
              "release_spin_rate": 2152.211,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0183,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.131,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.12,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0102,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
          "walk_factor": 0.986,
          "homer_factor": 1.01,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641816",
            "espn_id": 34973,
            "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 173,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 173,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 344,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 77,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 4.4112,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 127,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 118.1,
              "ip_rank": 87,
              "h_value": 114.0,
              "h_rank": 79,
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": 59,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 70,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 60,
              "k_value": 112.0,
              "k_rank": 70,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.51831,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.3183,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.98,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0102,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0102,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_COL@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_HOU@NYM

away

Ethan Pecko

True

3.2

5.0

-2

2/3

2/2

3/4

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 7.875,
      "WHIP": 1.875,
      "IP": 8.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6134,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0521,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9758,
      "walk_factor": 1.0783,
      "homer_factor": 1.0699,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 12.8,
      "bb_percent": 17.9,
      "woba": 0.396,
      "xwoba": 0.428,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 50.0,
      "whiff_percent": 25.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 636,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 39.0,
            "Pitches": 177.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.5,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.875,
            "WHIP": 1.875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 39.0,
            "Pitches": 177.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.5,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.875,
            "WHIP": 1.875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 39.0,
            "Pitches": 177.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.5,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.875,
            "WHIP": 1.875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.57,
        "predicted_H": 4.159,
        "predicted_BB": 2.176,
        "predicted_SO": 3.6,
        "predicted_HR": 0.745,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4578,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4947
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6518,
      "form_weight": 0.3482,
      "form_reliability": 0.2857,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.57,
          "final": 3.5021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.159,
          "final": 2.7518,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.176,
          "final": 2.0613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.6,
          "final": 2.5571,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.745,
          "final": 1.563,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4578,
          "final": 5.4578,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4947,
          "final": 1.4947,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.0,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 7.875,
        "WHIP": 1.875,
        "K9": 5.625,
        "HR9": 2.25,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1063152438323836,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2857,
          "prior_weight": 0.7143
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "player_name": "Ethan Pecko",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2615,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -1.1333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3382,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5441,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8824,
        "offense_index": 1.0189,
        "defense_index": 0.9134,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0417
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4485,
        "runs_scored": 559.0,
        "runs_allowed": 609.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3676,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1103,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4779,
        "offense_index": 0.9217,
        "defense_index": 0.9959,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1241
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0824,
        "offense_edge": 0.0189,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0783,
        "defense_strength": -0.0866,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0038,
        "run_prevention": 0.992,
        "strikeout": 1.0087
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "814490",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "814490",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 18.0,
            "k_percent": 12.8,
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            "xwoba": 0.428,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 46.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 50.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.27,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.2959,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 42.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.7953,
            "command_and_miss": -1.0379,
            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.5,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": -2.175,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.045
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "814490",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.66179775280898,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.494382022472,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.66179775280898,
                "release_spin_rate": 2286.494382022472,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6618,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.4944,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.045,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3212,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6134,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0521,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9758,
          "walk_factor": 1.0783,
          "homer_factor": 1.0699,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "814490",
            "espn_id": 4944276,
            "player_name": "Ethan Pecko",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 636,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 636,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 734,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 268,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 7.875,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 514,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 560,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 8.0,
              "ip_rank": 634,
              "h_value": 8.0,
              "h_rank": 641,
              "er_value": 7.0,
              "er_rank": 573,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 496,
              "bb_value": 7.0,
              "bb_rank": 538,
              "k_value": 5.0,
              "k_rank": 664,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.625,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.875,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.17,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0352,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0315,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 66,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_HOU@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_HOU@NYM

home

Zac Thornton

True

5.2

5.0

-2

2/6

1/0

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.8757396449704142,
      "WHIP": 1.1538461538461537,
      "IP": 56.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.633,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1931,
      "sample_weight": 0.72,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0164,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9605,
      "walk_factor": 0.9582,
      "homer_factor": 1.0271,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 95,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 56.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.876,
      "season_WHIP": 1.154,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 425.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 827.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 82.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8757,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31953,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90533,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24852,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71006,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10651
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 827.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 82.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8757,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31953,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90533,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24852,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71006,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10651
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.217,
        "predicted_H": 5.678,
        "predicted_BB": 1.628,
        "predicted_SO": 4.286,
        "predicted_HR": 0.754,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6013,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3184
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.217,
          "final": 1.1289,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.678,
          "final": 3.8728,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.628,
          "final": 1.3198,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.286,
          "final": 5.1273,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.754,
          "final": 0.3839,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6013,
          "final": 3.6013,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3184,
          "final": 1.3184,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8264468785320126,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "804267",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4485,
        "runs_scored": 559.0,
        "runs_allowed": 609.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3676,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1103,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4779,
        "offense_index": 0.9217,
        "defense_index": 0.9959,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1241
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3382,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5441,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8824,
        "offense_index": 1.0189,
        "defense_index": 0.9134,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0417
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0824,
        "offense_edge": -0.0783,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0189,
        "defense_strength": -0.0041,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0866,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9958,
        "run_prevention": 1.0076,
        "strikeout": 0.996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804267",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804267",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 180.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1854,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1596,
            "whiff_percent": 19.7,
            "swing_percent": 51.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1134,
            "command_and_miss": -0.395,
            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7714,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1325
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804267",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.4931944684895,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.422462840988,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.4931944684895,
                "release_spin_rate": 2355.422462840988,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4932,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.4225,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1325,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9462,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1931,
          "sample_weight": 0.72,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0164,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9605,
          "walk_factor": 0.9582,
          "homer_factor": 1.0271,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "804267",
            "espn_id": 5129576,
            "player_name": "Zac Thornton",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 95,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 95,
              "gp_value": 10.0,
              "gp_rank": 507,
              "gs_value": 10.0,
              "gs_rank": 167,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 2.8757,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 232,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 168,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 56.1,
              "ip_rank": 232,
              "h_value": 51.0,
              "h_rank": 219,
              "er_value": 18.0,
              "er_rank": 335,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 253,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 376,
              "k_value": 40.0,
              "k_rank": 333,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.3905325,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38,
              "whip_value": 1.1538,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.64,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0118,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0118,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9699,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0195,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9716,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_HOU@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_KC@CLE

away

Seth Lugo

True

5.1

3.2

-5

8/9

2/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.609756097560975,
      "WHIP": 1.3835920177383592,
      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.568,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5109,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0434,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0678,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.344,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 313,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
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            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 3.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7125,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0375
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 911.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 3.6,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.3889,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59259,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07407,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31481,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74074,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.8519,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6098,
            "WHIP": 1.3836,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5122,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07095,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31264,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77162,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10643
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 1.633,
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        "predicted_ERA": 5.4894,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.287,
          "final": 2.7516,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.959,
          "final": 6.808,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.633,
          "final": 1.7857,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.207,
          "final": 4.5369,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.414,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4894,
          "final": 5.4894,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4087,
          "final": 1.4087,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 5.333333333333333,
        "WHIP": 1.3888888888888886,
        "K9": 6.666666666666666,
        "HR9": 0.6666666666666666,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1088022368489092,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4526,
        "runs_scored": 589.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5328,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2993,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8321,
        "offense_index": 0.9624,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 33.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0341
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 546.0,
        "runs_allowed": 558.0,
        "run_differential": -12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0147,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1029,
        "offense_index": 0.8987,
        "defense_index": 1.0888,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0591
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0376,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1013,
        "defense_strength": -0.0755,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0008,
        "run_prevention": 0.9926,
        "strikeout": 1.0074
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607625",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607625",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 614.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
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            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.344,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.314,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5893,
            "whiff_percent": 18.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6418,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4771,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9143,
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            "whiff_edge": -0.9,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.2355
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607625",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.65388563891052,
              "release_spin_rate": 2512.4854293940252,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.65388563891052,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.6539,
              "release_spin_rate": 2512.4854,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2355,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.6819,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5109,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0434,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "607625",
            "espn_id": 34873,
            "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 313,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 313,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
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              "qs_rank": 16,
              "era_value": 4.6097,
              "era_rank": 50.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 98,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 73,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 150.1,
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              "h_value": 161.0,
              "h_rank": 5,
              "er_value": 77.0,
              "er_rank": 9,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 70,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 40,
              "k_value": 116.0,
              "k_rank": 67,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.944568,
              "k_per_9_rank": 78,
              "whip_value": 1.3835,
              "whip_rank": 46.0,
              "war_value": 0.26,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0434,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0678,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +7; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_KC@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_KC@CLE

home

Parker Messick

True

6.0

-1

3/5

1/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.496774193548387,
      "WHIP": 1.0129032258064516,
      "IP": 155.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.962,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6424,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9454,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0246,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.8848,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.263,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1236,
            "WHIP": 0.9101,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23596,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74157,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16854,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14607,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2253,
            "WHIP": 0.956,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24725,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1978,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90659,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08242
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.0,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 116.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 156.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 612.0,
            "Pitches": 2399.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6538,
            "R": 1.8077,
            "H": 4.4615,
            "BB": 1.5769,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 23.5385,
            "Pitches": 92.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4968,
            "WHIP": 1.0129,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27742,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74839,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26452,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00645,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09032
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.732,
        "predicted_H": 4.71,
        "predicted_BB": 1.353,
        "predicted_SO": 6.114,
        "predicted_HR": 0.606,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5979,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0106
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.732,
          "final": 1.8441,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.71,
          "final": 3.995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.353,
          "final": 1.2054,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.114,
          "final": 5.23,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.606,
          "final": 0.7708,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5979,
          "final": 2.5979,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0106,
          "final": 1.0106,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.2,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.2252747252747254,
        "WHIP": 0.9560439560439561,
        "K9": 8.159340659340659,
        "HR9": 0.7417582417582418,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7483245201211927,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        ],
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "games": 136,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 546.0,
        "runs_allowed": 558.0,
        "run_differential": -12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0147,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1029,
        "offense_index": 0.8987,
        "defense_index": 1.0888,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9839,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.91564892850265,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.092261917475,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.91564892850265,
                "release_spin_rate": 2099.092261917475,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9156,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.0923,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0032,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0228,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6424,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9454,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0246,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.8848,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_id": 4619898,
            "player_name": "Parker Messick",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 8,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 8,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 259,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 38,
              "era_value": 2.4967,
              "era_rank": 5.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 24,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 155.0,
              "ip_rank": 16,
              "h_value": 116.0,
              "h_rank": 75,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 125,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 91,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 70,
              "k_value": 156.0,
              "k_rank": 19,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.058065,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.0129,
              "whip_rank": 7.0,
              "war_value": 5.04,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9454,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9454,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8848,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0246,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_KC@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_LAD@DET

away

Tyler Glasnow

True

5.2

7.0

-2

8/2

2/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0223880597014925,
      "WHIP": 0.873134328358209,
      "IP": 44.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.583,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4916,
      "sample_weight": 0.588,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9582,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0548,
      "walk_factor": 0.9824,
      "homer_factor": 0.9664,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.237,
      "xwoba": 0.246,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 130,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 44.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.022,
      "season_WHIP": 0.873,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 397.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 79.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3625,
            "WHIP": 0.825,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.275,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 169.0,
            "Pitches": 688.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.875,
            "R": 1.875,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 1.625,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 21.125,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0224,
            "WHIP": 0.8731,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33582,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58209,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29104,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25373,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11194
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 169.0,
            "Pitches": 688.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.875,
            "R": 1.875,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 1.625,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 21.125,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0224,
            "WHIP": 0.8731,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33582,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58209,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29104,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25373,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11194
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.033,
        "predicted_H": 3.83,
        "predicted_BB": 1.882,
        "predicted_SO": 6.31,
        "predicted_HR": 0.692,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3103,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0335
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.033,
          "final": 2.5286,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.83,
          "final": 5.9671,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.882,
          "final": 1.9425,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.31,
          "final": 5.6386,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.692,
          "final": 0.8498,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3103,
          "final": 3.3103,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0335,
          "final": 1.0335,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.2,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 26,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.022388059701492,
        "WHIP": 0.8731343283582088,
        "K9": 11.283582089552237,
        "HR9": 1.007462686567164,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8359270295520602,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5956,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 516.0,
        "run_differential": 148.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8824,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7941,
        "offense_index": 1.0929,
        "defense_index": 1.1774,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2502
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4667,
        "runs_scored": 595.0,
        "runs_allowed": 525.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5185,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4074,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8889,
        "offense_index": 0.9866,
        "defense_index": 1.1487,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0695
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3197,
        "offense_edge": 0.0929,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0134,
        "defense_strength": 0.1774,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1487,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0186,
        "run_prevention": 0.9641,
        "strikeout": 1.0107
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607192",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607192",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 147.0,
            "k_percent": 33.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.237,
            "xwoba": 0.246,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.4658,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7016,
            "whiff_percent": 30.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.048,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0471,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.033
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607192",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.4479219166441,
              "release_spin_rate": 2625.6509472387484,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.4479219166441,
                "release_spin_rate": 2625.6509472387484,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.4479,
              "release_spin_rate": 2625.6509,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.033,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2357,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4916,
          "sample_weight": 0.588,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9582,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0548,
          "walk_factor": 0.9824,
          "homer_factor": 0.9664,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607192",
            "espn_id": 33190,
            "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 130,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 130,
              "gp_value": 8.0,
              "gp_rank": 540,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 180,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 119,
              "era_value": 3.0223,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 232,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 560,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 44.2,
              "ip_rank": 313,
              "h_value": 26.0,
              "h_rank": 434,
              "er_value": 15.0,
              "er_rank": 395,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 296,
              "bb_value": 13.0,
              "bb_rank": 399,
              "k_value": 56.0,
              "k_rank": 231,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.283582,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 0.8731,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.29,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9754,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9754,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9802,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0322,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_LAD@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_LAD@DET

home

Framber Valdez

True

5.0

6.0

5/6

0/1

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.35483870967742,
      "WHIP": 1.4101382488479264,
      "IP": 144.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.564,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2824,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.024,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.0274,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.326,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
      "whiff_percent": 19.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 193,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 136.0,
            "Pitches": 468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 27.2,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.734,
            "WHIP": 1.5319,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41489,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05319,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47872,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60638,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06383
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 869.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 86.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0727,
            "WHIP": 1.5455,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56364,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.2,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 639.0,
            "Pitches": 2302.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6923,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6923,
            "BB": 2.1538,
            "SO": 4.2692,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 24.5769,
            "Pitches": 88.5385
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3548,
            "WHIP": 1.4101,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48387,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76728,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.841,
        "predicted_H": 6.241,
        "predicted_BB": 2.482,
        "predicted_SO": 4.119,
        "predicted_HR": 0.532,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3532,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4849
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.841,
          "final": 2.9075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.241,
          "final": 5.7221,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.482,
          "final": 1.4442,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.119,
          "final": 3.2329,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.532,
          "final": 0.7277,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3532,
          "final": 4.3532,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4849,
          "final": 1.4849,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.072727272727272,
        "WHIP": 1.5454545454545454,
        "K9": 5.890909090909091,
        "HR9": 0.8181818181818182,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.083398196444869,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4667,
        "runs_scored": 595.0,
        "runs_allowed": 525.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5185,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4074,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8889,
        "offense_index": 0.9866,
        "defense_index": 1.1487,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0695
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5956,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 516.0,
        "run_differential": 148.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8824,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7941,
        "offense_index": 1.0929,
        "defense_index": 1.1774,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2502
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3197,
        "offense_edge": -0.0134,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0929,
        "defense_strength": 0.1487,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1774,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.988,
        "run_prevention": 1.016,
        "strikeout": 0.983
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664285",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664285",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 611.0,
            "k_percent": 17.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.324,
            "xwoba": 0.326,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5674,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8282,
            "whiff_percent": 19.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2265,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5471,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0953
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664285",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.15669735231863,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.472783096767,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.15669735231863,
                "release_spin_rate": 2286.472783096767,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1567,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.4728,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0953,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6808,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2824,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.024,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0274,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664285",
            "espn_id": 36581,
            "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 193,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 193,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 259,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 22,
              "era_value": 4.3548,
              "era_rank": 44.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 54,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 23,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 144.2,
              "ip_rank": 34,
              "h_value": 148.0,
              "h_rank": 11,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 18,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 91,
              "bb_value": 56.0,
              "bb_rank": 15,
              "k_value": 111.0,
              "k_rank": 73,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.90553,
              "k_per_9_rank": 57,
              "whip_value": 1.4101,
              "whip_rank": 48.0,
              "war_value": 0.85,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9429,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_LAD@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_MIA@WAS

away

Janson Junk

True

5.0

4.2

-1

5/4

3/2

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.2101694915254235,
      "WHIP": 1.3016949152542374,
      "IP": 98.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.123,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2165,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0184,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9109,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0096,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 15.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 241,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 80.0,
            "Pitches": 293.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 58.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7458,
            "WHIP": 1.1695,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30508,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9661,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20339,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.35593,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05085
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 185.0,
            "Pitches": 699.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.5,
            "Pitches": 69.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1154,
            "WHIP": 1.3385,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64615,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 98.1,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 102.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 417.0,
            "Pitches": 1561.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.55,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.85,
            "Pitches": 78.05
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2102,
            "WHIP": 1.3017,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4678,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03729,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26441,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69153,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12203
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "data_weight": 0.8,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4326,
          "final": 3.4326,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2726,
          "final": 1.2726,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
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      "pitching": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8580223223189948,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "data_weight": 0.8,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0809,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3235,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2426,
        "offense_index": 0.966,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
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          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 138,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.471,
        "runs_scored": 718.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1449,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2029,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.058,
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        "defense_index": 0.8849,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0418
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0167,
        "offense_edge": -0.034,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1625,
        "defense_strength": 0.0549,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9958,
        "run_prevention": 1.0197,
        "strikeout": 0.9875
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676083",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676083",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 372.0,
            "k_percent": 16.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.2,
            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2547,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5675,
            "whiff_percent": 15.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.074,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7129,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -1.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0861
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676083",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.32055855990507,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.610368540037,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.32055855990507,
                "release_spin_rate": 2207.610368540037,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3206,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.6104,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0861,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6153,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2165,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0184,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9109,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "676083",
            "espn_id": 4881980,
            "player_name": "Janson Junk",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 241,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 241,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 372,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 98,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 4.2101,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 98,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 257,
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              "h_value": 102.0,
              "h_rank": 100,
              "er_value": 46.0,
              "er_rank": 108,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 124,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 191,
              "k_value": 68.0,
              "k_rank": 168,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.2237287,
              "k_per_9_rank": 40,
              "whip_value": 1.3016,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.55,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0184,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0184,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0096,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9109,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_MIA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_MIA@WAS

home

Andrew Alvarez

True

5.0

6.0

1/2

2/3

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7204724409448815,
      "WHIP": 1.3464566929133857,
      "IP": 84.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1749,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0149,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0074,
      "walk_factor": 1.028,
      "homer_factor": 1.0195,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 117,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 383.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 76.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81481,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 202.0,
            "Pitches": 748.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 74.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9375,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77083,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47917,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79167,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 84.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 76.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 80.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 359.0,
            "Pitches": 1392.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 17.95,
            "Pitches": 69.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7205,
            "WHIP": 1.3465,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41339,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89764,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44882,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94488,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05906
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.01,
        "predicted_H": 3.842,
        "predicted_BB": 2.032,
        "predicted_SO": 4.202,
        "predicted_HR": 0.473,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.676,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.194
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.01,
          "final": 1.1367,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.842,
          "final": 2.6072,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.032,
          "final": 2.0181,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.202,
          "final": 5.8522,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.473,
          "final": 0.2675,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.676,
          "final": 3.676,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.194,
          "final": 1.194,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.9375,
        "WHIP": 1.25,
        "K9": 7.125,
        "HR9": 0.5625,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.948298764626687,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.471,
        "runs_scored": 718.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1449,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2029,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.058,
        "offense_index": 1.1625,
        "defense_index": 0.8849,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0418
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0809,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3235,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2426,
        "offense_index": 0.966,
        "defense_index": 1.0549,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0251
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0167,
        "offense_edge": 0.1625,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.034,
        "defense_strength": -0.1151,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0549,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9972,
        "run_prevention": 1.0069,
        "strikeout": 1.0022
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674841",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674841",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 302.0,
            "k_percent": 22.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.1601,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7395,
            "whiff_percent": 26.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1824,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0021,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1571,
            "bb_edge": -0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1524
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674841",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.13661568408875,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.9833130374473,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.13661568408875,
                "release_spin_rate": 2504.9833130374473,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.1366,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.9833,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1524,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0888,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1749,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0149,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0074,
          "walk_factor": 1.028,
          "homer_factor": 1.0195,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "674841",
            "espn_id": 4300668,
            "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 117,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 117,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 372,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 151,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 174,
              "era_value": 3.7204,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 296,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 101,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 132,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 223,
              "ip_value": 84.2,
              "ip_rank": 140,
              "h_value": 76.0,
              "h_rank": 148,
              "er_value": 35.0,
              "er_rank": 157,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 296,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 82,
              "k_value": 80.0,
              "k_rank": 140,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.503937,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.3464,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.44,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0149,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0149,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.028,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0195,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0074,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_MIA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_PHI@LAA

away

Zack Wheeler

True

5.1

6.0

4/4

3/3

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4021447721179627,
      "WHIP": 1.0857908847184987,
      "IP": 124.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.652,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6572,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9441,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.9445,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 30.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0103,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0737,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6572,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9441,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.9445,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_id": 31267,
            "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 13,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 13,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 344,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 77,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 29,
              "era_value": 3.4021,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 24,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 128,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 124.1,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 97.0,
              "h_rank": 108,
              "er_value": 47.0,
              "er_rank": 106,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 35,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 82,
              "k_value": 148.0,
              "k_rank": 25,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.713137,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8,
              "whip_value": 1.0857,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.66,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9441,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9441,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9445,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_PHI@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_PHI@LAA

home

Yusei Kikuchi

True

4.1

7.0

-3

6/6

0/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.5833333333333333,
      "IP": 36.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2973,
      "sample_weight": 0.568,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0253,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0039,
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      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.365,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 670,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
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      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
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            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.0,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4531,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42188,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98438,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 165.0,
            "Pitches": 656.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.125,
            "R": 3.125,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 1.875,
            "SO": 4.625,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 20.625,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.25,
            "WHIP": 1.5833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13889
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
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            "IP": 36.0,
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            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 42.0,
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            "BF": 165.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.125,
            "R": 3.125,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 1.875,
            "SO": 4.625,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.25,
            "WHIP": 1.5833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13889
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.653,
        "predicted_H": 4.555,
        "predicted_BB": 1.761,
        "predicted_SO": 4.291,
        "predicted_HR": 0.713,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4292,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4361
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.555,
          "final": 5.2956,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.4292,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 36.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 6.25,
        "WHIP": 1.5833333333333333,
        "K9": 9.25,
        "HR9": 1.25,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2167883479600203,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.3824,
        "runs_scored": 553.0,
        "runs_allowed": 632.0,
        "run_differential": -79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5809,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0662,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6471,
        "offense_index": 0.9104,
        "defense_index": 0.9611,
        "current_streak": "L6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5588,
        "runs_scored": 617.0,
        "runs_allowed": 590.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1985,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5368,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3382,
        "offense_index": 1.0158,
        "defense_index": 1.0295,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1794
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4559,
        "offense_edge": -0.0896,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0158,
        "defense_strength": -0.0389,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0295,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.98,
        "run_prevention": 1.0292,
        "strikeout": 0.9851
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "579328",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "579328",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.3485,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.653,
            "whiff_percent": 26.0,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.0137,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0693,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1286,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0291
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "579328",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33948369974534,
              "release_spin_rate": 2182.3887540174815,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.33948369974534,
                "release_spin_rate": 2182.3887540174815,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3395,
              "release_spin_rate": 2182.3888,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0291,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2077,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2973,
          "sample_weight": 0.568,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0253,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0039,
          "walk_factor": 0.9989,
          "homer_factor": 1.0755,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "579328",
            "espn_id": 41415,
            "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 670,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 670,
              "gp_value": 8.0,
              "gp_rank": 540,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 180,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 174,
              "era_value": 6.25,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 514,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 168,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 36.0,
              "ip_rank": 373,
              "h_value": 42.0,
              "h_rank": 285,
              "er_value": 25.0,
              "er_rank": 220,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 296,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 363,
              "k_value": 37.0,
              "k_rank": 356,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.25,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.5833,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.23,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0144,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0144,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0429,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0022,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_PHI@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_PIT@STL

away

Braxton Ashcraft

True

6.1

5.0

-4

4/6

0/1

9/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.650214592274678,
      "WHIP": 1.075107296137339,
      "IP": 155.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.974,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3323,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9718,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
      "walk_factor": 0.926,
      "homer_factor": 0.9878,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.287,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677952",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 407.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 81.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1818,
            "WHIP": 0.6667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24242,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12121,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78788,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15152
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 86.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6023,
            "WHIP": 1.0568,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51136,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85227,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20455,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92045,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22159
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.1,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 133.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 161.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 623.0,
            "Pitches": 2275.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4231,
            "R": 2.6154,
            "H": 5.1154,
            "BB": 1.3077,
            "SO": 6.1923,
            "HR": 0.8077,
            "BF": 23.9615,
            "Pitches": 87.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6502,
            "WHIP": 1.0751,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40558,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85622,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21888,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03648,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13519
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.46,
        "predicted_H": 4.771,
        "predicted_BB": 1.274,
        "predicted_SO": 5.63,
        "predicted_HR": 1.062,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5111,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9587
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.46,
          "final": 1.4314,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.771,
          "final": 4.4486,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.274,
          "final": 0.7413,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.63,
          "final": 7.0392,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.062,
          "final": 0.6179,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5111,
          "final": 3.5111,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9587,
          "final": 0.9587,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.2,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 4.6022727272727275,
        "WHIP": 1.0568181818181819,
        "K9": 8.28409090909091,
        "HR9": 1.9943181818181819,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0182561509903234,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677952",
      "player_name": "Braxton Ashcraft",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4818,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1825,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8467,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6642,
        "offense_index": 1.086,
        "defense_index": 0.9569,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.007
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4964,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": -14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1022,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5255,
        "offense_index": 0.9911,
        "defense_index": 0.9862,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0857
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0927,
        "offense_edge": 0.086,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0089,
        "defense_strength": -0.0431,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0138,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0028,
        "run_prevention": 0.9983,
        "strikeout": 1.0035
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677952",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677952",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 599.0,
            "k_percent": 25.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.29,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3625,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4435,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 52.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3491,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4479,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.925,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1471
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677952",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.48482503258485,
              "release_spin_rate": 2475.2218591031974,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.48482503258485,
                "release_spin_rate": 2475.2218591031974,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.4848,
              "release_spin_rate": 2475.2219,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1471,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0504,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3323,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9718,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
          "walk_factor": 0.926,
          "homer_factor": 0.9878,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "677952",
            "espn_id": 41282,
            "player_name": "Braxton Ashcraft",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 17,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 17,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 259,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 22,
              "era_value": 3.5922,
              "era_rank": 27.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 8,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 128,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 155.1,
              "ip_rank": 13,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 34,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 42,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 23,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 118,
              "k_value": 161.0,
              "k_rank": 16,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.328325,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.0686,
              "whip_rank": 10.0,
              "war_value": 3.47,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9718,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9718,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.926,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9878,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_PIT@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_PIT@STL

home

Matthew Liberatore

True

5.0

5.2

5/6

1/2

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.441860465116279,
      "WHIP": 1.4651162790697674,
      "IP": 129.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.962,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3725,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0317,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9989,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.0882,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.354,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 810,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1519,
            "WHIP": 1.1013,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68354,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91139,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18987,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21519,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 874.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 87.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2597,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97403,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31169,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20779,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 129.0,
            "ER": 78.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 132.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 563.0,
            "Pitches": 2200.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.1923,
            "H": 5.5385,
            "BB": 1.7308,
            "SO": 5.0769,
            "HR": 0.8846,
            "BF": 21.6538,
            "Pitches": 84.6154
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4419,
            "WHIP": 1.4651,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60465,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11628,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02326,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17829
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.134,
        "predicted_H": 4.994,
        "predicted_BB": 1.441,
        "predicted_SO": 5.825,
        "predicted_HR": 0.744,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.503,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2554
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.134,
          "final": 2.6598,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.994,
          "final": 4.9965,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.441,
          "final": 1.2566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.825,
          "final": 5.8982,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.744,
          "final": 0.4329,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.503,
          "final": 5.503,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2554,
          "final": 1.2554,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 62,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.25974025974026,
        "WHIP": 1.2857142857142858,
        "K9": 10.87012987012987,
        "HR9": 1.051948051948052,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0979436509903233,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4964,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": -14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1022,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5255,
        "offense_index": 0.9911,
        "defense_index": 0.9862,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0857
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4818,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1825,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8467,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6642,
        "offense_index": 1.086,
        "defense_index": 0.9569,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.007
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0927,
        "offense_edge": -0.0089,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.086,
        "defense_strength": -0.0138,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0431,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9924,
        "run_prevention": 1.0198,
        "strikeout": 0.9903
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669461",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669461",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 540.0,
            "k_percent": 23.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8289,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6356,
            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7605,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0686,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0548
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669461",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.88051548154917,
              "release_spin_rate": 2373.4956500680873,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.88051548154917,
                "release_spin_rate": 2373.4956500680873,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8805,
              "release_spin_rate": 2373.4957,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0548,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3913,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3725,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0317,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9989,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.0882,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669461",
            "espn_id": 41173,
            "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 810,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 810,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 259,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 5.4418,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 127,
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": 4,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 129.0,
              "ip_rank": 64,
              "h_value": 144.0,
              "h_rank": 16,
              "er_value": 78.0,
              "er_rank": 7,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 15,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 47,
              "k_value": 132.0,
              "k_rank": 43,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.209303,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18,
              "whip_value": 1.4651,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.86,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0317,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0317,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0882,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_PIT@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_SD@TB

away

Robbie Ray

True

5.2

6.0

4/3

1/3

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2097902097902096,
      "WHIP": 1.3146853146853146,
      "IP": 143.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2474,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.021,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9891,
      "walk_factor": 1.05,
      "homer_factor": 1.0401,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.3,
      "bb_percent": 11.7,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 53,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 143.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.21,
      "season_WHIP": 1.315,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 452.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4177,
            "WHIP": 1.3291,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53165,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79747,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 90.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4398,
            "WHIP": 1.3735,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27108,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75904,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09036
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.0,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 70.0,
            "SO": 122.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 600.0,
            "Pitches": 2427.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9615,
            "R": 2.2692,
            "H": 4.5385,
            "BB": 2.6923,
            "SO": 4.6923,
            "HR": 0.7308,
            "BF": 23.0769,
            "Pitches": 93.3462
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2098,
            "WHIP": 1.3147,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35664,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82517,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48951,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85315,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13287
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.992,
        "predicted_H": 4.668,
        "predicted_BB": 2.692,
        "predicted_SO": 4.489,
        "predicted_HR": 0.711,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2689,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3419
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.992,
          "final": 1.5772,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.668,
          "final": 4.3887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.692,
          "final": 1.9845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.489,
          "final": 4.2845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.711,
          "final": 0.4137,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2689,
          "final": 3.2689,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3419,
          "final": 1.3419,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
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      "player_id": "592662",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5294,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 568.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0809,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2574,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1765,
        "offense_index": 0.953,
        "defense_index": 1.0696,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.035
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.6,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 558.0,
        "run_differential": 53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3926,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5259,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1333,
        "offense_index": 1.0131,
        "defense_index": 1.0808,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1683
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1333,
        "offense_edge": -0.047,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0131,
        "defense_strength": 0.0696,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0808,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9962,
        "run_prevention": 1.0018,
        "strikeout": 0.995
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 551.0,
            "k_percent": 20.3,
            "bb_percent": 11.7,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4058,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9995,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.22,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2457,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": -0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0753
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.51374193206205,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.8108860159628,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.51374193206205,
                "release_spin_rate": 2134.8108860159628,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.8109,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0753,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.538,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2474,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.021,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9891,
          "walk_factor": 1.05,
          "homer_factor": 1.0401,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592662",
            "espn_id": 32175,
            "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 53,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 53,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 259,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 52,
              "era_value": 3.2097,
              "era_rank": 17.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 20,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 73,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 143.0,
              "ip_rank": 38,
              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 69,
              "er_value": 51.0,
              "er_rank": 85,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 35,
              "bb_value": 70.0,
              "bb_rank": 1,
              "k_value": 122.0,
              "k_rank": 53,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6783214,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37,
              "whip_value": 1.3146,
              "whip_rank": 43.0,
              "war_value": 2.35,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.021,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.021,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.05,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0401,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_SD@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_SD@TB

home

Drew Rasmussen

True

6.0

4/4

2/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9501187648456053,
      "WHIP": 0.9263657957244655,
      "IP": 140.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.613,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5108,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9566,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
      "walk_factor": 0.906,
      "homer_factor": 0.9291,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.0,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.25,
      "xwoba": 0.276,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 26,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 140.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.95,
      "season_WHIP": 0.926,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
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      {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "TB",
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      "steps": [
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "profile": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5108,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9566,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
          "walk_factor": 0.906,
          "homer_factor": 0.9291,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656876",
            "espn_id": 42584,
            "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 26,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 26,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 288,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 16,
              "era_value": 2.9501,
              "era_rank": 11.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 4,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 128,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 140.1,
              "ip_rank": 45,
              "h_value": 105.0,
              "h_rank": 93,
              "er_value": 46.0,
              "er_rank": 108,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 111,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 199,
              "k_value": 143.0,
              "k_rank": 28,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.171021,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16,
              "whip_value": 0.9263,
              "whip_rank": 3.0,
              "war_value": 3.14,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9566,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9566,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.906,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9291,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_SD@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_SEA@TOR

away

Logan Gilbert

True

6.0

5.0

-3

3/6

1/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.360515021459227,
      "WHIP": 1.0236051502145922,
      "IP": 155.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.974,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1674,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9858,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 1.0607,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.284,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 24,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 488.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 97.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0337,
            "WHIP": 1.1461,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74157,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40449,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97753,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 966.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 96.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4652,
            "WHIP": 1.0428,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38503,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77005,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99465,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1123
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.1,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 162.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 616.0,
            "Pitches": 2459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2308,
            "R": 2.2308,
            "H": 4.6154,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.2308,
            "HR": 0.8077,
            "BF": 23.6923,
            "Pitches": 94.5769
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3605,
            "WHIP": 1.0236,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37339,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77253,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25107,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04292,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13519
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.338,
        "predicted_H": 4.833,
        "predicted_BB": 2.039,
        "predicted_SO": 6.021,
        "predicted_HR": 0.948,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4502,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1269
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.338,
          "final": 1.7785,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.833,
          "final": 4.0665,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.039,
          "final": 1.6045,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.021,
          "final": 5.5941,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.948,
          "final": 0.5516,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4502,
          "final": 3.4502,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1269,
          "final": 1.1269,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 62,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.46524064171123,
        "WHIP": 1.0427807486631016,
        "K9": 8.95187165775401,
        "HR9": 1.0106951871657754,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.889989105535778,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4706,
        "runs_scored": 530.0,
        "runs_allowed": 595.0,
        "run_differential": -65.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4779,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.8971,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.375,
        "offense_index": 0.8724,
        "defense_index": 1.0211,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0838
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4891,
        "runs_scored": 541.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4161,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9489,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.365,
        "offense_index": 0.884,
        "defense_index": 1.0234,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0605
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0233,
        "offense_edge": -0.1276,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.116,
        "defense_strength": 0.0211,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0234,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0043,
        "run_prevention": 0.9805,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 590.0,
            "k_percent": 26.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.284,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2177,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4277,
            "whiff_percent": 29.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0734,
            "command_and_miss": 0.645,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6571,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0172
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.55212588420072,
              "release_spin_rate": 1933.4323936506946,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.55212588420072,
                "release_spin_rate": 1933.4323936506946,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5521,
              "release_spin_rate": 1933.4324,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0172,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1226,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1674,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9858,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_id": 41221,
            "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 24,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 24,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 259,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 29,
              "era_value": 3.3605,
              "era_rank": 22.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 20,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 73,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
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              "ip_rank": 13,
              "h_value": 120.0,
              "h_rank": 65,
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": 59,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 23,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 75,
              "k_value": 162.0,
              "k_rank": 15,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.386266,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.0236,
              "whip_rank": 8.0,
              "war_value": 3.31,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0607,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0503,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_SEA@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_SEA@TOR

home

Max Scherzer

True

4.2

7.0

-4

7/1

2/1

4/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.54,
      "IP": 50.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3485,
      "sample_weight": 0.804,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9417,
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      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.362,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
      "whiff_percent": 18.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 796,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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            "HR": 0.6,
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          },
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.51316,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.0,
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            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 194.0,
            "Pitches": 806.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
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            "Pitches": 80.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.09524,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2381
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        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 50.0,
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            "H": 52.0,
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            "Pitches": 925.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.25,
            "R": 3.25,
            "H": 4.3333,
            "BB": 2.0833,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.02,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.24
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.079,
        "predicted_SO": 3.585,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.903,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.445,
          "final": 5.6567,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.079,
          "final": 2.0415,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.585,
          "final": 3.7818,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.6849,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.4194,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "H": 46,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4891,
        "runs_scored": 541.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4161,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9489,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.365,
        "offense_index": 0.884,
        "defense_index": 1.0234,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0605
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4706,
        "runs_scored": 530.0,
        "runs_allowed": 595.0,
        "run_differential": -65.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4779,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.8971,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.375,
        "offense_index": 0.8724,
        "defense_index": 1.0211,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0838
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0233,
        "offense_edge": -0.116,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1276,
        "defense_strength": 0.0234,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0211,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0067,
        "run_prevention": 0.9761,
        "strikeout": 1.0109
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 201.0,
            "k_percent": 16.0,
            "bb_percent": 11.1,
            "woba": 0.362,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8987,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.339,
            "whiff_percent": 18.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5097,
            "command_and_miss": -0.8171,
            "regression_edge": 0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9429,
            "bb_edge": -0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1224
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.67251054611137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263033136295,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.67251054611137,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263033136295,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.6725,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1224,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.8745,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3485,
          "sample_weight": 0.804,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0296,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9417,
          "walk_factor": 1.0306,
          "homer_factor": 1.025,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_id": 28976,
            "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 796,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 796,
              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 483,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 151,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 7.02,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 395,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 73,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 50.0,
              "ip_rank": 280,
              "h_value": 52.0,
              "h_rank": 214,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 142,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 124,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 199,
              "k_value": 36.0,
              "k_rank": 359,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.48,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.54,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.75,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0238,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0238,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0246,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0201,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9531,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_SEA@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_TEX@MIL

away

Kumar Rocker

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-1

5/4

2/4

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.405263157894737,
      "WHIP": 1.3973684210526316,
      "IP": 126.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.957,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1709,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0145,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0006,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0383,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.33,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 184,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0,
            "WHIP": 1.875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "H_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54167,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20833
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 867.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 86.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7848,
            "WHIP": 1.4241,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53165,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02532,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39873,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98734,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18987
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 126.2,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 553.0,
            "Pitches": 2122.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.48,
            "R": 2.52,
            "H": 5.04,
            "BB": 2.04,
            "SO": 4.68,
            "HR": 0.72,
            "BF": 22.12,
            "Pitches": 84.88
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4053,
            "WHIP": 1.3974,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48947,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99474,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40263,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92368,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14211
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.833,
        "predicted_H": 5.604,
        "predicted_BB": 2.228,
        "predicted_SO": 4.84,
        "predicted_HR": 0.903,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1282,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5751
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.833,
          "final": 2.9032,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.604,
          "final": 5.3501,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.228,
          "final": 2.1321,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.84,
          "final": 4.9073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.903,
          "final": 1.3642,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1282,
          "final": 5.1282,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5751,
          "final": 1.5751,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.784810126582278,
        "WHIP": 1.4240506329113922,
        "K9": 8.886075949367088,
        "HR9": 1.7088607594936707,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.047972419689978,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "player_name": "Kumar Rocker",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4853,
        "runs_scored": 547.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3971,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0221,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4191,
        "offense_index": 0.9012,
        "defense_index": 1.0099,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0964
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.625,
        "runs_scored": 679.0,
        "runs_allowed": 499.0,
        "run_differential": 180.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3235,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9926,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6691,
        "offense_index": 1.1187,
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        "recent": {
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          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3393
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4357,
        "offense_edge": -0.0988,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0099,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2164,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9781,
        "run_prevention": 1.0398,
        "strikeout": 0.9774
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 527.0,
            "k_percent": 21.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.33,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9327,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4142,
            "whiff_percent": 26.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3013,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0079,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.038
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.18085451032329,
              "release_spin_rate": 2133.619480737421,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.18085451032329,
                "release_spin_rate": 2133.619480737421,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1809,
              "release_spin_rate": 2133.6195,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.038,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2712,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1709,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0145,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0006,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "677958",
            "espn_id": 4414525,
            "player_name": "Kumar Rocker",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 184,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 184,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 288,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 68,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 4.4052,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 127,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 126.2,
              "ip_rank": 68,
              "h_value": 126.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 42,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 43,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 24,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 63,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.313158,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.3973,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.92,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0145,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0145,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0383,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0006,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_TEX@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260830

20260830_TEX@MIL

home

Dustin May

True

4.2

4.1

-1

2/6

3/3

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 124.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.973,
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      "last_start_IP": 0.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0091,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 264,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20260830",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 63.4
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1803,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4918,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7377,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44262,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7377,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09836
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 182.0,
            "Pitches": 703.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.1,
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            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 70.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0902,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56557,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0082,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4918,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0082,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04918
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 124.1,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 524.0,
            "Pitches": 1998.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.52,
            "R": 2.64,
            "H": 4.76,
            "BB": 1.68,
            "SO": 4.72,
            "HR": 0.36,
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            "Pitches": 79.92
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2949,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5067,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3378,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07239
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.212,
        "predicted_H": 3.818,
        "predicted_BB": 1.827,
        "predicted_SO": 3.788,
        "predicted_HR": 0.375,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.653,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3197
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.212,
          "final": 2.5433,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.818,
          "final": 3.0537,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.827,
          "final": 2.3202,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.788,
          "final": 3.8771,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.375,
          "final": 0.6378,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.653,
          "final": 4.653,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.3197,
          "final": 1.3197,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 40.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 5.09016393442623,
        "WHIP": 1.5,
        "K9": 9.073770491803279,
        "HR9": 0.4426229508196722,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0842234572496379,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.625,
        "runs_scored": 679.0,
        "runs_allowed": 499.0,
        "run_differential": 180.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3235,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9926,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6691,
        "offense_index": 1.1187,
        "defense_index": 1.2164,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3393
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4853,
        "runs_scored": 547.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3971,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0221,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4191,
        "offense_index": 0.9012,
        "defense_index": 1.0099,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0964
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4357,
        "offense_edge": 0.1187,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0988,
        "defense_strength": 0.2164,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0099,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0279,
        "run_prevention": 0.9408,
        "strikeout": 1.021
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 520.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9675,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6291,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 120.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8989,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1518,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0543,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1488
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669160",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.51580093046432,
              "release_spin_rate": 2533.5004535710195,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.51580093046432,
                "release_spin_rate": 2533.5004535710195,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5158,
              "release_spin_rate": 2533.5005,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1488,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0628,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1072,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0091,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.0387,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_id": 40937,
            "player_name": "Dustin May",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 264,
            "espn_total_ranked": 840,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 264,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 288,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 29,
              "era_value": 4.5603,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 98,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 341,
              "ip_value": 124.1,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 119.0,
              "h_rank": 67,
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": 37,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 168,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 60,
              "k_value": 118.0,
              "k_rank": 59,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.541555,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.2949,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.41,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0387,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260830_TEX@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}