Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260828 · dates 20260828 · generated 2026-08-29T06:00:19.723216+00:00

7-8

Winner picks · 46.7%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

16/30

Starter ER within ±1

23/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260828	15	15	0	7	8	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 10
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2179.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	6	53.6%	50.0%	3.6%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	5	56.2%	20.0%	36.2%	overconfident
0.60-0.65	1	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	overconfident
0.65-0.70	1	66.5%	100.0%	-33.5%	underconfident
0.80-1.00	2	84.8%	100.0%	-15.2%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.6154	3.8934	3.4913	46.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.6	3.8667	3.4667	33.3%	-0.0154	-0.0246
enhanced_prediction	15	2.3333	3.3333	3.3333	46.7%	-0.2821	-0.158
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.2667	3.3333	3.4667	46.7%	-0.3487	-0.0246
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.2667	3.3333	3.4667	46.7%	-0.3487	-0.0246
capped_target	15	2.2667	3.3333	3.4667	46.7%	-0.3487	-0.0246
simulation_result	15	2.2667	3.3333	3.4667	46.7%	-0.3487	-0.0246
published_final	15	2.2667	3.3333	3.4667	46.7%	-0.3487	-0.0246

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.6,
  "total_run_mae": 3.8667,
  "margin_mae": 3.4667,
  "winner_hits": 5,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.3333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0154,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0246
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=8

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	0.0	8
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	8
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	8
capped_target	0.0	8
simulation_result	0.0	8
variance_applied	-0.0067	8

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.0067,
      "games": 8
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=7

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	8.0	7
embedded_savant_run_environment	4.0	7
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	7
capped_target	0.0	7
simulation_result	0.0	7
variance_applied	-0.7834	7

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.7834,
      "games": 7
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	6	3	3	0.5
[0.550, 0.600)	5	1	4	0.2
[0.600, 1.010)	4	3	1	0.75

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 5,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 4,
    "accuracy": 0.2
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.2
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260828	15	0.5993	9.0667	0.4667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260828",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5993,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.0667,
      "accuracy": 0.4667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	7	8	0.4667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 7,
      "misses": 8,
      "accuracy": 0.4667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260828_ARI@SF

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSF

Published scoreARI 5 - 6 SF

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=324

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4179

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.893933040696609-5.282772891903916	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.067342,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533671,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.533671,
    "away_win_probability": 0.466329
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.067342,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF",
    "confidence": 0.53367139,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 324,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5185,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5143,
    "published_confidence": 0.533671,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6881,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4179
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02145726365954546
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02093245378798768
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020680048511739182
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0201742480622757
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01961854981834089
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03424695537338708,
      "1": 0.058933961424184236,
      "2": 0.08936739126996122,
      "3": 0.11941594125582009,
      "4": 0.14060970956932115,
      "5": 0.14589422310147665,
      "6": 0.1333922689089561,
      "7": 0.10747142393865311,
      "8": 0.07630010330712735,
      "9": 0.047733912021128,
      "10": 0.026314717384949293,
      "11": 0.012783217297857467,
      "12": 0.005472067074492553,
      "13": 0.0020641080726856473
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.035707141168712875,
      "1": 0.06136395581168254,
      "2": 0.09267670799821105,
      "3": 0.1230061515116647,
      "4": 0.14347692007947513,
      "5": 0.14707411440561888,
      "6": 0.13249192825325154,
      "7": 0.1048918104936533,
      "8": 0.07297812898281868,
      "9": 0.04462136483337285,
      "10": 0.023976840666885928,
      "11": 0.011322440491224791,
      "12": 0.004698801713454781,
      "13": 0.0017136935899729547
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0246,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "SF",
      "model_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SF",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SF",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4179,
      "winner": "SF",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SF",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5367,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4179,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.084,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0246,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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    },
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    {
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  ]
}

20260828_BAL@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBAL

Published scoreBAL 6 - 5 OAK

Final confidence54.8%

Calibrationraw 56.2% → blended 54.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.1% · weight 50.0% · n=450

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9243

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.488257498834416-5.363559931207121	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.096282,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548141,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.451859,
    "away_win_probability": 0.548141
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.096282,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 6 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.5481408975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.561628,
    "sample_size": 450,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5311,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.546364,
    "published_confidence": 0.548141,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0273,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0273,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3358,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9243
  },
  "score_distribution": {
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      {
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        "probability": 0.01842928975714047
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017910294501187477
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01777339810593256
      },
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          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.972,
          "home_runs": 4.99,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4165
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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            "away_runs": 7,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.488257498834416,
      "home_runs": 5.363559931207121,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_BOS@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreBOS 4 - 6 NYY

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 53.7% → blended 52.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=324

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.007

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8257389152318337-5.398673519157518	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.537043,
    "sample_size": 324,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5185,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.527772,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.015,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.007
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021025301617435443
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020222769581921877
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019990467818424357
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      {
        "home_runs": 6,
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        "probability": 0.019545267688986838
      },
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        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019271206621477365
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03262531463687374,
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      "2": 0.08565100925673866,
      "3": 0.11531652310153448,
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      "6": 0.13416813120808074,
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      "11": 0.014616654403045812,
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      "13": 0.0025373957011852496
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0340043883194718,
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      "2": 0.08881425250404439,
      "3": 0.1188103080698775,
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      "5": 0.14567742364000116,
      "6": 0.1335238743363808,
      "7": 0.10789235448021059,
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      "13": 0.0021288627107875595
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0056,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.218,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.007,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5155,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.007,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.008,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0056,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 14
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
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        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-28T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546604,
      "confidence": 0.546604,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.537043,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.527772,
        "final_confidence": 0.5082,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5082,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.965789,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 324,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5185,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5175,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.965789,
          "side_flipped": false,
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          "probability_after": 0.546604,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546604
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 133,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 58,
          "win_pct": 0.5639097744360902,
          "runs_scored": 596,
          "runs_allowed": 496,
          "run_differential": 100,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7518796992481203,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 133,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 60,
          "win_pct": 0.5488721804511278,
          "runs_scored": 600,
          "runs_allowed": 499,
          "run_differential": 101,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7593984962406015,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0075,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.015,
        "quality_edge": 0.007,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.015,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.015,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.008,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.007
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.10789235448021059,
          "8": 0.07685771840268499,
          "9": 0.04826689672695782,
          "10": 0.026722454024119283,
          "11": 0.013042726035586363,
          "12": 0.005612100987937738,
          "13": 0.0021288627107875595
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8257389152318337,
      "home_runs": 5.398673519157518,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_CHW@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreCHW 5 - 6 MIN

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=324

H2H base featurehome net -20.0 · absolute 20.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6056

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.17247148708922-4.458934180036708	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.053874,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526937,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.526937,
    "away_win_probability": 0.473063
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.053874,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.526937112,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 324,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5185,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5143,
    "published_confidence": 0.526937,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -20.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 20.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1154,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1154,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -13.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8218,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.204,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6056
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021551920411894656
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02109801385450212
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02084061088858002
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0204016852725977
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019625000270980818
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03464705727974572,
      "1": 0.05960040550837509,
      "2": 0.090277649350246,
      "3": 0.12040913526041978,
      "4": 0.14141217426095726,
      "5": 0.14623870390551613,
      "6": 0.1331637528778967,
      "7": 0.10677212597850552,
      "8": 0.07538378188637175,
      "9": 0.0468647300901805,
      "10": 0.025654436863291406,
      "11": 0.012365936700067552,
      "12": 0.0052485545993460475,
      "13": 0.0019615554390806514
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03612737102999883,
      "1": 0.06206215795428826,
      "2": 0.09362263440498979,
      "3": 0.12402188120096136,
      "4": 0.1442710670366267,
      "5": 0.147374941354918,
      "6": 0.1322000193778526,
      "7": 0.1041364729959383,
      "8": 0.07203402498960297,
      "9": 0.04375583460503439,
      "10": 0.023339832448804394,
      "11": 0.010932587654979205,
      "12": 0.004496883891172319,
      "13": 0.00162429105483298
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.085,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.274,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.6056,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5269,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5067,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5269,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.6056,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.204,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.085,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 6,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260828_CIN@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreCIN 5 - 7 CHC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 72.2% → blended 64.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=209

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.2745

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.351244245909125-4.9504630154265845	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
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  "confidence_calibration": {
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        "home_average_margin": 1.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 134,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 58,
          "win_pct": 0.5671641791044776,
          "runs_scored": 695,
          "runs_allowed": 576,
          "run_differential": 119,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8880597014925373,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 134,
          "wins": 63,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.4701492537313433,
          "runs_scored": 548,
          "runs_allowed": 648,
          "run_differential": -100,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.746268656716418,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.6343,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.097,
        "quality_edge": 1.2745,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.7799,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.7799,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.336,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.2745
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.5353,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.5353,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.2745,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.7799,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.013,
          "home_runs": 7.143,
          "home_win_probability": 0.7661
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.016133975922162282,
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          "13": 0.002956372354398577
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.351244245909125,
      "home_runs": 4.9504630154265845,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_COL@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreCOL 3 - 8 ATL

Final confidence84.8%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 73.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=698

H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.5862

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.110498015909392-5.605047762020917	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.695346,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.847673,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.847673,
    "away_win_probability": 0.152327
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.695346,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 8-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 8 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.847673,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 698,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7315,
    "published_confidence": 0.847673,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 5.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1023,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1023,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.1754,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.492,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.5862
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022279582364814535
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021794710225339072
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020945675083784605
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.020182514496921055
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020078349813700994
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.013060122797543264,
      "1": 0.02295999147229855,
      "2": 0.03712167418636361,
      "3": 0.05519690886971913,
      "4": 0.07548024997182111,
      "5": 0.09492558290049766,
      "6": 0.10979045521055593,
      "7": 0.11678236580819179,
      "8": 0.11424082285486205,
      "9": 0.1027771915921354,
      "10": 0.08503614039489964,
      "11": 0.06470557553317803,
      "12": 0.04528050261013338,
      "13": 0.029141516171498117,
      "14": 0.01724822537440542,
      "15": 0.009388756232801755,
      "16": 0.004700056498583394,
      "17": 0.002163861520511671
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07716174733556531,
      "1": 0.12780723217552215,
      "2": 0.17282159303117436,
      "3": 0.19077865233015956,
      "4": 0.17192963744781906,
      "5": 0.12649137584259018,
      "6": 0.07597317627382365,
      "7": 0.03725193609263106,
      "8": 0.01491168129558589,
      "9": 0.004872968175128856
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 8 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 8 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.089,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.842,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 5,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 8
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 8
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 5,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5862,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 8,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.8477,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.8477,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5862,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.492,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.089,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "default-v1",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
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          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.65-0.70"
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-28T22:39:57.844173+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-28T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.847673,
      "confidence": 0.847673,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "default-v1",
          "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8731,
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        "quality_edge": 1.5862,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.1754,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_HOU@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreHOU 3 - 4 NYM

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 53.7% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 52.7% · weight 50.0% · n=433

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0379

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.912743398536102-4.64202293066315	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.097492,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548746,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.548746,
    "away_win_probability": 0.451254
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.097492,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.5487458,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.537154,
    "sample_size": 433,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5266,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.531877,
    "published_confidence": 0.548746,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1381,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.148,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0379
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030117456689564844
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029349434427798013
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02901513447893573
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02827522242601321
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026184220334537944
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05616715319622808,
      "1": 0.09477473671309171,
      "2": 0.135489473558616,
      "3": 0.1641048130034304,
      "4": 0.1683991427616333,
      "5": 0.14640679336465004,
      "6": 0.10784136482362303,
      "7": 0.06729957428035731,
      "8": 0.03558295840428042,
      "9": 0.01593949593971623,
      "10": 0.00604936665990641,
      "11": 0.0019451272944670868
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06638712358922048,
      "1": 0.11101406063100076,
      "2": 0.1544695366268812,
      "3": 0.1788456651005385,
      "4": 0.17229977542110328,
      "5": 0.13812163913904055,
      "6": 0.09213177851048274,
      "7": 0.05113613561261847,
      "8": 0.02361658370201041,
      "9": 0.00907563376748498,
      "10": 0.0029020678996185796
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0332,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.148,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0379,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5487,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5988,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5487,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.148,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0332,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
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      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
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    "publication_authority": "none",
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-28T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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        "away": {
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260828_KC@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreKC 4 - 5 CLE

Final confidence57.4%

Calibrationraw 62.0% → blended 58.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=297

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3452

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7610705257454047-4.980709764412923	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.147678,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.573839,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.573839,
    "away_win_probability": 0.426161
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.147678,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.57383865,
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        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "CLE",
          "games": 134,
          "wins": 68,
          "losses": 66,
          "win_pct": 0.5074626865671642,
          "runs_scored": 543,
          "runs_allowed": 547,
          "run_differential": -4,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.029850746268656716,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "KC",
          "games": 135,
          "wins": 60,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.4444444444444444,
          "runs_scored": 578,
          "runs_allowed": 659,
          "run_differential": -81,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.6,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5701,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.063,
        "quality_edge": 0.3452,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6647,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.6647,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.248,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3452
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02139386852218836
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.021005102966033123
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020657732016262267
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020282343401160762
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019451343200202177
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.027399440971477996,
          "1": 0.04745679034699741,
          "2": 0.07337545185842512,
          "3": 0.10127423742442532,
          "4": 0.12477941383037308,
          "5": 0.13724061861882045,
          "6": 0.13474670661926327,
          "7": 0.11809986957589355,
          "8": 0.09240095144763705,
          "9": 0.06453558255504972,
          "10": 0.040236277318107146,
          "11": 0.022394022859597414,
          "12": 0.011126080762064536,
          "13": 0.004934555811867925
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.043145188023117016,
          "1": 0.07365565428717231,
          "2": 0.10904599390541847,
          "3": 0.14000490025153475,
          "4": 0.1558858356767456,
          "5": 0.15052199723493068,
          "6": 0.12604429302864623,
          "7": 0.09153270541024865,
          "8": 0.05764469011162813,
          "9": 0.03148271779869686,
          "10": 0.014911283315845705,
          "11": 0.00612474095601543
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7610705257454047,
      "home_runs": 4.980709764412923,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_LAD@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 4 - 1 DET

Final confidence66.5%

Calibrationraw 76.7% → blended 66.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=197

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.761

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.16656388265571-4.077816572154695	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-1	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-1	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-1	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "confidence": -0.330748,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.665374,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.334626,
    "away_win_probability": 0.665374
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.330748,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-1",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 1
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 1 DET",
    "confidence": 0.665374,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.766528,
    "sample_size": 197,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5533,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.659914,
    "published_confidence": 0.665374,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7744,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.736,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.761
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03480926635895207
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03353202354513695
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0324305864230381
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03132069114068526
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.031240623582985804
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11390692681016366,
      "1": 0.18237661162266036,
      "2": 0.22274533251454023,
      "3": 0.20752410240278982,
      "4": 0.14748536850422625,
      "5": 0.07995576688291361,
      "6": 0.03306519668818116,
      "7": 0.010430686429173358,
      "8": 0.0025100081453514026
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04343504525760348,
      "1": 0.07413097885563866,
      "2": 0.10966310797692515,
      "3": 0.14061210974483934,
      "4": 0.15627383059386804,
      "5": 0.15053973596931855,
      "6": 0.12569482603096524,
      "7": 0.09096723858482304,
      "8": 0.057062918571674934,
      "9": 0.031025894306028135,
      "10": 0.014621636930906219,
      "11": 0.005972677177409179
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 1 DET",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 1 DET",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0343,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.736,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.761,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.6654,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6934,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6654,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.761,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.736,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0343,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
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          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.65-0.70"
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-28T22:36:04.342987+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-28T22:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.334626,
      "confidence": 0.665374,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "default-v1",
          "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.334626,
      "confidence": 0.665374,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.766528,
        "sample_size": 197,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5533,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.659914
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.659914,
        "final_confidence": 0.6607,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 197,
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.761,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 2
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.339251,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.33,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.945581,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.334626,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.665374
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": false,
        "sample_size": 0,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 133,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.46616541353383456,
          "runs_scored": 592,
          "runs_allowed": 522,
          "run_differential": 70,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5263157894736842,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 134,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 54,
          "win_pct": 0.5970149253731343,
          "runs_scored": 661,
          "runs_allowed": 513,
          "run_differential": 148,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.1044776119402986,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5782,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1308,
        "quality_edge": -0.761,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.7744,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7744,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.736,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.761
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3196,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3196,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.761,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7744,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.972,
          "home_runs": 1.505,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2053
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.20752410240278982,
          "4": 0.14748536850422625,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "2": 0.10966310797692515,
          "3": 0.14061210974483934,
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          "5": 0.15053973596931855,
          "6": 0.12569482603096524,
          "7": 0.09096723858482304,
          "8": 0.057062918571674934,
          "9": 0.031025894306028135,
          "10": 0.014621636930906219,
          "11": 0.005972677177409179
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.16656388265571,
      "home_runs": 4.077816572154695,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_MIA@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIA

Published scoreMIA 5 - 4 WAS

Final confidence55.5%

Calibrationraw 65.8% → blended 59.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=392

H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2011

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	6.166310598081833-3.076767596441818	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.10914,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.55457,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44543,
    "away_win_probability": 0.55457
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.10914,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.554570425,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.657583,
    "sample_size": 392,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5383,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.597942,
    "published_confidence": 0.55457,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1199,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.352,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2011
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02458047295874859
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0242732160860329
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023448003384209
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023154902425437787
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021964674434801053
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052738101074247465,
      "1": 0.08926030149263695,
      "2": 0.1287782085197906,
      "3": 0.15837133494340452,
      "4": 0.16602020445966398,
      "5": 0.14835270853719468,
      "6": 0.11300045282557235,
      "7": 0.07336941501651605,
      "8": 0.04060692445681488,
      "9": 0.019157344419019513,
      "10": 0.00770407825456244,
      "11": 0.002640926000576521
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03718314664891857,
      "1": 0.06381407626549705,
      "2": 0.09598646018410699,
      "3": 0.12653964337780818,
      "4": 0.1462063979804957,
      "5": 0.14805711773906788,
      "6": 0.13140604516555499,
      "7": 0.10221733182352956,
      "8": 0.06968781972620028,
      "9": 0.04164015672843329,
      "10": 0.021806751521519164,
      "11": 0.010009047167727889,
      "12": 0.004026406681477381,
      "13": 0.0014195989896631164
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0178,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.702,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2011,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5546,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6045,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5546,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2011,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.352,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0178,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_PHI@LAA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAA

Published scorePHI 4 - 5 LAA

Final confidence56.6%

Calibrationraw 64.7% → blended 59.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=386

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8664

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.853207615205731-5.265170996190255	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.131788,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.565894,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.565894,
    "away_win_probability": 0.434106
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.131788,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.5658936999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.647227,
    "sample_size": 386,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5466,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.596914,
    "published_confidence": 0.565894,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.3639,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3639,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.8664,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.9776,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.271,
          "home_runs": 5.12,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5721
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02193377033951974
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.021232174628069117
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02096776065040137
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020382704232369958
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.0202970646996674
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.029928312467567338,
          "1": 0.05171120298273377,
          "2": 0.07937327904266687,
          "3": 0.10823090066312645,
          "4": 0.13110386417528527,
          "5": 0.14108049720299268,
          "6": 0.13486701337717852,
          "7": 0.11453329846058305,
          "8": 0.0864062317580122,
          "9": 0.057908942272382816,
          "10": 0.034477317532515823,
          "11": 0.018235117845986682,
          "12": 0.008567832141954841,
          "13": 0.0035761900770135764
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04283887246477089,
          "1": 0.07315308260428188,
          "2": 0.10839241139807483,
          "3": 0.13935956145183614,
          "4": 0.15546989679204554,
          "5": 0.15049687978856038,
          "6": 0.12640967884134574,
          "7": 0.0921307923821023,
          "8": 0.05826408508974505,
          "9": 0.03197191888028162,
          "10": 0.01522327595523088,
          "11": 0.006289544351724629
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.853207615205731,
      "home_runs": 5.265170996190255,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_PIT@STL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 5 - 3 STL

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 72.9% → blended 64.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=200

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2925

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.675225032431618-3.393390753422493	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.4,
    "away_win_probability": 0.6
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 5 - 3 STL",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.729251,
    "sample_size": 200,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.555,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.642126,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2519,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.368,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2925
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02850171254337317
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02751036221052742
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.026426071649680437
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.026011856637087966
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025506916532743173
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08230165849849563,
      "1": 0.13568857389386302,
      "2": 0.18093800488181724,
      "3": 0.1951498153671043,
      "4": 0.17023871028131,
      "5": 0.12011585150841324,
      "6": 0.06854790032284624,
      "7": 0.03164024348628534,
      "8": 0.011812377169749028,
      "9": 0.003566864590115951
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.034426039646517484,
      "1": 0.05923231626524501,
      "2": 0.08977514521322397,
      "3": 0.11986137779155051,
      "4": 0.1409704752155494,
      "5": 0.14605042023615258,
      "6": 0.13329173070523279,
      "7": 0.1071591727002884,
      "8": 0.07588942216733838,
      "9": 0.047343339510580826,
      "10": 0.0260173033625696,
      "11": 0.012594804240252526,
      "12": 0.005370890663842962,
      "13": 0.002017562281655726
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 3 STL",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 3 STL",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0909,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.298,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2925,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6039,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2925,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.368,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0909,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.55-0.60",
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.65-0.70"
        ],
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-28T23:39:48.512155+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-29T00:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.337667,
      "confidence": 0.662333,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "default-v1",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
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            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.337667,
      "confidence": 0.662333,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
        "evidence": [
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 135,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.4962962962962963,
          "runs_scored": 600,
          "runs_allowed": 613,
          "run_differential": -13,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.0962962962962963,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PIT",
          "games": 135,
          "wins": 65,
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.17777777777777778,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2741,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0148,
        "quality_edge": -0.2925,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.2519,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.368,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.2925
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.012594804240252526,
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.675225032431618,
      "home_runs": 3.393390753422493,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_SD@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreSD 4 - 5 TB

Final confidence55.7%

Calibrationraw 56.3% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=470

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0625

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8752013471254916-4.6137446436355045	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.114314,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.557157,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.557157,
    "away_win_probability": 0.442843
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.114314,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.5571574,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.56321,
    "sample_size": 470,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5319,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.547555,
    "published_confidence": 0.557157,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3115,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.4,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0625
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024340292685332714
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024294477688807322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02281781916342857
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022774869872752235
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0222428130396346
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03848585035134836,
      "1": 0.06597134804770939,
      "2": 0.09887821543887544,
      "3": 0.12957967021152428,
      "4": 0.14847868428373356,
      "5": 0.14875868826207336,
      "6": 0.13031414511359254,
      "7": 0.09981407076497348,
      "8": 0.06684716079523136,
      "9": 0.03914399559184104,
      "10": 0.02004187416428063,
      "11": 0.008972273377778377,
      "12": 0.0035120254461073717,
      "13": 0.0012019981509307114
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049947105426969285,
      "1": 0.08474717460272839,
      "2": 0.12318345602836854,
      "3": 0.15338814445062612,
      "4": 0.16362266278156185,
      "5": 0.1495227828336901,
      "6": 0.11705326699035926,
      "7": 0.07850041643727139,
      "8": 0.045099594260958,
      "9": 0.022196554310706978,
      "10": 0.00935859690932805,
      "11": 0.0033802449674319576
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0598,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0625,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5572,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6008,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5572,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0625,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.4,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0598,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8752013471254916,
      "home_runs": 4.6137446436355045,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_SEA@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreSEA 2 - 4 TOR

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 63.6% → blended 60.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=260

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0019

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7212552514227735-5.019222505659986	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.635717,
    "sample_size": 260,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5692,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.602459,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0886,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0886,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0503,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.088,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0019
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031582067695270076
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029644403028136035
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028903304340260772
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028813262267223985
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02805739454468105
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.1494509348586945,
          "6": 0.1167628076647045,
          "7": 0.07812039742630932,
          "8": 0.04475879437235909,
          "9": 0.021960707968494888,
          "10": 0.009227165598946171,
          "11": 0.003320047630218039
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0794247302276455,
          "1": 0.13128689669104238,
          "2": 0.17644149627767944,
          "3": 0.19279412533930854,
          "4": 0.17127760261725358,
          "5": 0.12371463255886872,
          "6": 0.07265328885233029,
          "7": 0.03468991235510275,
          "8": 0.013466813369954566,
          "9": 0.004250501710814414
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7212552514227735,
      "home_runs": 5.019222505659986,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260828_TEX@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreTEX 2 - 6 MIL

Final confidence84.8%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 73.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=698

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4849

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.714661394900432-5.180751040359539	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.695346,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.847673,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.847673,
    "away_win_probability": 0.152327
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.695346,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 2 - 6 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.847673,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 698,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7315,
    "published_confidence": 0.847673,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.8321,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.84,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4849
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031915662489656944
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030676103307559686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030065411963414893
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.02844902402539962
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.027344104177227335
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02019314603186212,
      "1": 0.03522431648416776,
      "2": 0.05563406406566622,
      "3": 0.07956070471914775,
      "4": 0.10301870340017029,
      "5": 0.12077948153241035,
      "6": 0.12821235155383287,
      "7": 0.12323276519311296,
      "8": 0.10724625724342281,
      "9": 0.08450797967894558,
      "10": 0.06029383621201086,
      "11": 0.038950024728080825,
      "12": 0.022782542118770337,
      "13": 0.012065803525996201,
      "14": 0.005785886896963358,
      "15": 0.0025121366154397737
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.14256715764565567,
      "1": 0.22188988565157586,
      "2": 0.24892814228008625,
      "3": 0.20129313615646388,
      "4": 0.11732820081234073,
      "5": 0.049294030811420156,
      "6": 0.014928106679044432,
      "7": 0.0032586191411915905,
      "8": 0.0005127208222214815
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "TEX 2 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "TEX 2 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0474,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.84,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4849,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.8477,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.8477,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4849,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.84,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0474,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "default-v1",
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-28T23:38:41.326746+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-28T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.847673,
      "confidence": 0.847673,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 2,
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.847673,
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.92,
        "sample_size": 698,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.7315
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.7315,
        "final_confidence": 0.8553,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.8553,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.983659,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 4.25,
        "calibration_sample_size": 698,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5419,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.4849,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 2,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 4,
          "probability_before": 0.855347,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.84,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983659,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.847673,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.847673
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": false,
        "sample_size": 0,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 134,
          "wins": 83,
          "losses": 51,
          "win_pct": 0.6194029850746269,
          "runs_scored": 668,
          "runs_allowed": 495,
          "run_differential": 173,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.291044776119403,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 134,
          "wins": 66,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.4925373134328358,
          "runs_scored": 543,
          "runs_allowed": 590,
          "run_differential": -47,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.35074626865671643,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.6418,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1269,
        "quality_edge": 1.4849,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.8321,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.8321,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.84,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.4849
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.6237,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.6237,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.4849,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.8321,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.568,
          "home_runs": 6.385,
          "home_win_probability": 0.9094
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 2,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 2,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.030065411963414893
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 1,
            "probability": 0.02844902402539962
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 1,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.02019314603186212,
          "1": 0.03522431648416776,
          "2": 0.05563406406566622,
          "3": 0.07956070471914775,
          "4": 0.10301870340017029,
          "5": 0.12077948153241035,
          "6": 0.12821235155383287,
          "7": 0.12323276519311296,
          "8": 0.10724625724342281,
          "9": 0.08450797967894558,
          "10": 0.06029383621201086,
          "11": 0.038950024728080825,
          "12": 0.022782542118770337,
          "13": 0.012065803525996201,
          "14": 0.005785886896963358,
          "15": 0.0025121366154397737
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.14256715764565567,
          "1": 0.22188988565157586,
          "2": 0.24892814228008625,
          "3": 0.20129313615646388,
          "4": 0.11732820081234073,
          "5": 0.049294030811420156,
          "6": 0.014928106679044432,
          "7": 0.0032586191411915905,
          "8": 0.0005127208222214815
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.714661394900432,
      "home_runs": 5.180751040359539,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260828	20260828_ARI@SF	SF	53.4%	51.0%	51.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	10-6	miss	Variance Applied (-0.3888)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 324, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5185, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5143, "published_confidence": 0.533671, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0058, "away_run_delta": 0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6881, "recent_quality_edge": 0.084, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4179 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02145726365954546 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02093245378798768 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020680048511739182 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0201742480622757 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01961854981834089 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03424695537338708, "1": 0.058933961424184236, "2": 0.08936739126996122, "3": 0.11941594125582009, "4": 0.14060970956932115, "5": 0.14589422310147665, "6": 0.1333922689089561, "7": 0.10747142393865311, "8": 0.07630010330712735, "9": 0.047733912021128, "10": 0.026314717384949293, "11": 0.012783217297857467, "12": 0.005472067074492553, "13": 0.0020641080726856473 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.035707141168712875, "1": 0.06136395581168254, "2": 0.09267670799821105, "3": 0.1230061515116647, "4": 0.14347692007947513, "5": 0.14707411440561888, "6": 0.13249192825325154, "7": 0.1048918104936533, "8": 0.07297812898281868, "9": 0.04462136483337285, "10": 0.023976840666885928, "11": 0.011322440491224791, "12": 0.004698801713454781, "13": 0.0017136935899729547 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0246, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "SF", "model_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SF", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SF", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4179, "winner": "SF", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_BAL@OAK	BAL	54.8%	56.2%	53.1%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	4-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.561628, "sample_size": 450, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5311, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.546364, "published_confidence": 0.548141, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 1.333, "home_run_delta": 0.0273, "away_run_delta": -0.0273, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3358, "recent_quality_edge": -0.16, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9243 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01842928975714047 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017910294501187477 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01777339810593256 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01727287370045085 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01707316121982972 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.029089057219872066, "1": 0.050301346785701986, "2": 0.07739483185101931, "3": 0.1059562768760649, "4": 0.12906955081994695, "5": 0.13989535298184155, "6": 0.13491652876925778, "7": 0.11577356584774018, "8": 0.08839669779296655, "9": 0.06005443062927916, "10": 0.03630249269924733, "11": 0.01952586221292851, "12": 0.009344721755291654, "13": 0.003979283758841925 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.022975351151283564, "1": 0.03996415829898656, "2": 0.06258621029003256, "3": 0.08824418799911989, "4": 0.11201934761465979, "5": 0.12802637199473121, "6": 0.13173625402362432, "7": 0.12204237564664368, "8": 0.10179242662493404, "9": 0.07643983730185766, "10": 0.051680119845637196, "11": 0.03145768373858931, "12": 0.017239689652603227, "13": 0.008506122182186686, "14": 0.0037786203708634223, "15": 0.00151124326424688 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0098, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0433, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9243, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_BOS@NYY	NYY	53.0%	53.7%	51.8%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	0-1	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.537043, "sample_size": 324, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5185, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.527772, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.015, "recent_quality_edge": -0.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.007 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021025301617435443 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020222769581921877 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019990467818424357 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019545267688986838 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019271206621477365 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03262531463687374, "1": 0.05622811717026068, "2": 0.08565100925673866, "3": 0.11531652310153448, "4": 0.13722419932291574, "5": 0.14432779693711004, "6": 0.13416813120808074, "7": 0.11023737672652556, "8": 0.08005500341986953, "9": 0.051384034666263775, "10": 0.029150636015140338, "11": 0.014616654403045812, "12": 0.006477807434455482, "13": 0.0025373957011852496 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0340043883194718, "1": 0.0585296975575646, "2": 0.08881425250404439, "3": 0.1188103080698775, "4": 0.1401169422043754, "5": 0.14567742364000116, "6": 0.1335238743363808, "7": 0.10789235448021059, "8": 0.07685771840268499, "9": 0.04826689672695782, "10": 0.026722454024119283, "11": 0.013042726035586363, "12": 0.005612100987937738, "13": 0.0021288627107875595 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0056, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.218, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.007, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_CHW@MIN	MIN	52.7%	51.0%	51.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	7-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 324, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5185, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5143, "published_confidence": 0.526937, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -20.0, "absolute_net_margin": 20.0, "home_average_margin": -4.0, "home_run_delta": -0.1154, "away_run_delta": 0.1154, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -13.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8218, "recent_quality_edge": -0.204, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6056 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021551920411894656 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02109801385450212 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02084061088858002 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0204016852725977 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019625000270980818 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03464705727974572, "1": 0.05960040550837509, "2": 0.090277649350246, "3": 0.12040913526041978, "4": 0.14141217426095726, "5": 0.14623870390551613, "6": 0.1331637528778967, "7": 0.10677212597850552, "8": 0.07538378188637175, "9": 0.0468647300901805, "10": 0.025654436863291406, "11": 0.012365936700067552, "12": 0.0052485545993460475, "13": 0.0019615554390806514 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03612737102999883, "1": 0.06206215795428826, "2": 0.09362263440498979, "3": 0.12402188120096136, "4": 0.1442710670366267, "5": 0.147374941354918, "6": 0.1322000193778526, "7": 0.1041364729959383, "8": 0.07203402498960297, "9": 0.04375583460503439, "10": 0.023339832448804394, "11": 0.010932587654979205, "12": 0.004496883891172319, "13": 0.00162429105483298 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.085, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.274, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.6056, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_CIN@CHC	CHC	56.0%	72.2%	56.0%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	10-8	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.72208, "sample_size": 209, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5598, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.64094, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 1.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0462, "away_run_delta": -0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7799, "recent_quality_edge": 0.336, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.2745 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01720524851797749 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016651585822978418 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01627638974098908 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01619349532517428 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016193459540260968 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.015012827529355212, "1": 0.026334020087466808, "2": 0.04229252455494181, "3": 0.06218731959836486, "4": 0.08372050644121058, "5": 0.10319380729036409, "6": 0.1164574309591604, "7": 0.1203296228190216, "8": 0.11383339428908393, "9": 0.09859584123182989, "10": 0.07818785308122692, "11": 0.05676906745513669, "12": 0.03773775081794963, "13": 0.022968468883361265, "14": 0.012799112567785912, "15": 0.006530094293940499, "16": 0.0030503580997999426 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0314242739914561, "1": 0.05421921181978387, "2": 0.0828704100513273, "3": 0.11220290886497057, "4": 0.13457583561627454, "5": 0.14298431354558938, "6": 0.13457613300699572, "7": 0.11220340476589818, "8": 0.0828709594429479, "9": 0.05421969108395135, "10": 0.031424621205677974, "11": 0.016133975922162282, "12": 0.007337888328566308, "13": 0.002956372354398577 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.061, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.546, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2745, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_COL@ATL	ATL	84.8%	92.0%	54.3%	50.0%	3.0-8.0	4-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 698, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.7315, "published_confidence": 0.847673, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": 5.0, "home_run_delta": 0.1023, "away_run_delta": -0.1023, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.1754, "recent_quality_edge": 0.492, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.5862 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022279582364814535 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021794710225339072 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020945675083784605 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.020182514496921055 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020078349813700994 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.013060122797543264, "1": 0.02295999147229855, "2": 0.03712167418636361, "3": 0.05519690886971913, "4": 0.07548024997182111, "5": 0.09492558290049766, "6": 0.10979045521055593, "7": 0.11678236580819179, "8": 0.11424082285486205, "9": 0.1027771915921354, "10": 0.08503614039489964, "11": 0.06470557553317803, "12": 0.04528050261013338, "13": 0.029141516171498117, "14": 0.01724822537440542, "15": 0.009388756232801755, "16": 0.004700056498583394, "17": 0.002163861520511671 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07716174733556531, "1": 0.12780723217552215, "2": 0.17282159303117436, "3": 0.19077865233015956, "4": 0.17192963744781906, "5": 0.12649137584259018, "6": 0.07597317627382365, "7": 0.03725193609263106, "8": 0.01491168129558589, "9": 0.004872968175128856 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 3 - 8 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 3 - 8 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.089, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.842, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 5, "simulation_margin": 5, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 5, "final_margin": 5, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5862, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_HOU@NYM	NYM	54.9%	53.7%	52.7%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-1	miss	Variance Applied (0.2707)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.537154, "sample_size": 433, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5266, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.531877, "published_confidence": 0.548746, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1381, "recent_quality_edge": 0.148, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0379 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030117456689564844 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029349434427798013 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02901513447893573 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02827522242601321 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026184220334537944 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05616715319622808, "1": 0.09477473671309171, "2": 0.135489473558616, "3": 0.1641048130034304, "4": 0.1683991427616333, "5": 0.14640679336465004, "6": 0.10784136482362303, "7": 0.06729957428035731, "8": 0.03558295840428042, "9": 0.01593949593971623, "10": 0.00604936665990641, "11": 0.0019451272944670868 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06638712358922048, "1": 0.11101406063100076, "2": 0.1544695366268812, "3": 0.1788456651005385, "4": 0.17229977542110328, "5": 0.13812163913904055, "6": 0.09213177851048274, "7": 0.05113613561261847, "8": 0.02361658370201041, "9": 0.00907563376748498, "10": 0.0029020678996185796 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0332, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.148, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0379, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_KC@CLE	CLE	57.4%	62.0%	55.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-0	miss	Variance Applied (-0.2196)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.62018, "sample_size": 297, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5522, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.58619, "published_confidence": 0.573839, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0404, "away_run_delta": -0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6647, "recent_quality_edge": -0.248, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3452 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02139386852218836 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021005102966033123 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020657732016262267 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020282343401160762 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019451343200202177 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.027399440971477996, "1": 0.04745679034699741, "2": 0.07337545185842512, "3": 0.10127423742442532, "4": 0.12477941383037308, "5": 0.13724061861882045, "6": 0.13474670661926327, "7": 0.11809986957589355, "8": 0.09240095144763705, "9": 0.06453558255504972, "10": 0.040236277318107146, "11": 0.022394022859597414, "12": 0.011126080762064536, "13": 0.004934555811867925 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.043145188023117016, "1": 0.07365565428717231, "2": 0.10904599390541847, "3": 0.14000490025153475, "4": 0.1558858356767456, "5": 0.15052199723493068, "6": 0.12604429302864623, "7": 0.09153270541024865, "8": 0.05764469011162813, "9": 0.03148271779869686, "10": 0.014911283315845705, "11": 0.00612474095601543 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0787, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.178, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3452, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_LAD@DET	LAD	66.5%	76.7%	55.3%	50.0%	4.0-1.0	2-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.766528, "sample_size": 197, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5533, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.659914, "published_confidence": 0.665374, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7744, "recent_quality_edge": -0.736, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.761 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03480926635895207 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.03353202354513695 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0324305864230381 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03132069114068526 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.031240623582985804 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.11390692681016366, "1": 0.18237661162266036, "2": 0.22274533251454023, "3": 0.20752410240278982, "4": 0.14748536850422625, "5": 0.07995576688291361, "6": 0.03306519668818116, "7": 0.010430686429173358, "8": 0.0025100081453514026 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04343504525760348, "1": 0.07413097885563866, "2": 0.10966310797692515, "3": 0.14061210974483934, "4": 0.15627383059386804, "5": 0.15053973596931855, "6": 0.12569482603096524, "7": 0.09096723858482304, "8": 0.057062918571674934, "9": 0.031025894306028135, "10": 0.014621636930906219, "11": 0.005972677177409179 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 1 DET", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 1 DET", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0343, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.736, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.761, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_MIA@WAS	MIA	55.5%	65.8%	53.8%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	2-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.657583, "sample_size": 392, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5383, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.597942, "published_confidence": 0.55457, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": -2.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0808, "away_run_delta": 0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1199, "recent_quality_edge": -0.352, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2011 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02458047295874859 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0242732160860329 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023448003384209 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023154902425437787 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021964674434801053 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.052738101074247465, "1": 0.08926030149263695, "2": 0.1287782085197906, "3": 0.15837133494340452, "4": 0.16602020445966398, "5": 0.14835270853719468, "6": 0.11300045282557235, "7": 0.07336941501651605, "8": 0.04060692445681488, "9": 0.019157344419019513, "10": 0.00770407825456244, "11": 0.002640926000576521 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03718314664891857, "1": 0.06381407626549705, "2": 0.09598646018410699, "3": 0.12653964337780818, "4": 0.1462063979804957, "5": 0.14805711773906788, "6": 0.13140604516555499, "7": 0.10221733182352956, "8": 0.06968781972620028, "9": 0.04164015672843329, "10": 0.021806751521519164, "11": 0.010009047167727889, "12": 0.004026406681477381, "13": 0.0014195989896631164 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 WAS", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 WAS", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0178, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.702, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2011, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_PHI@LAA	LAA	56.6%	64.7%	54.7%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	5-3	miss	Variance Applied (-0.412)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.647227, "sample_size": 386, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5466, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.596914, "published_confidence": 0.565894, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9776, "recent_quality_edge": -0.66, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8664 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02193377033951974 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021232174628069117 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02096776065040137 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020382704232369958 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0202970646996674 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.029928312467567338, "1": 0.05171120298273377, "2": 0.07937327904266687, "3": 0.10823090066312645, "4": 0.13110386417528527, "5": 0.14108049720299268, "6": 0.13486701337717852, "7": 0.11453329846058305, "8": 0.0864062317580122, "9": 0.057908942272382816, "10": 0.034477317532515823, "11": 0.018235117845986682, "12": 0.008567832141954841, "13": 0.0035761900770135764 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04283887246477089, "1": 0.07315308260428188, "2": 0.10839241139807483, "3": 0.13935956145183614, "4": 0.15546989679204554, "5": 0.15049687978856038, "6": 0.12640967884134574, "7": 0.0921307923821023, "8": 0.05826408508974505, "9": 0.03197191888028162, "10": 0.01522327595523088, "11": 0.006289544351724629 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 LAA", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 LAA", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1043, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.66, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.8664, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_PIT@STL	PIT	60.0%	72.9%	55.5%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	1-4	miss	Variance Applied (0.7182)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.729251, "sample_size": 200, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.555, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.642126, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2519, "recent_quality_edge": -0.368, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2925 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02850171254337317 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02751036221052742 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.026426071649680437 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.026011856637087966 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025506916532743173 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08230165849849563, "1": 0.13568857389386302, "2": 0.18093800488181724, "3": 0.1951498153671043, "4": 0.17023871028131, "5": 0.12011585150841324, "6": 0.06854790032284624, "7": 0.03164024348628534, "8": 0.011812377169749028, "9": 0.003566864590115951 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.034426039646517484, "1": 0.05923231626524501, "2": 0.08977514521322397, "3": 0.11986137779155051, "4": 0.1409704752155494, "5": 0.14605042023615258, "6": 0.13329173070523279, "7": 0.1071591727002884, "8": 0.07588942216733838, "9": 0.047343339510580826, "10": 0.0260173033625696, "11": 0.012594804240252526, "12": 0.005370890663842962, "13": 0.002017562281655726 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 3 STL", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 3 STL", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0909, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.298, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2925, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_SD@TB	TB	55.7%	56.3%	53.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-9	hit	Variance Applied (0.2615)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.56321, "sample_size": 470, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5319, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.547555, "published_confidence": 0.557157, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3115, "recent_quality_edge": -0.4, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0625 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024340292685332714 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024294477688807322 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02281781916342857 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022774869872752235 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0222428130396346 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03848585035134836, "1": 0.06597134804770939, "2": 0.09887821543887544, "3": 0.12957967021152428, "4": 0.14847868428373356, "5": 0.14875868826207336, "6": 0.13031414511359254, "7": 0.09981407076497348, "8": 0.06684716079523136, "9": 0.03914399559184104, "10": 0.02004187416428063, "11": 0.008972273377778377, "12": 0.0035120254461073717, "13": 0.0012019981509307114 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.049947105426969285, "1": 0.08474717460272839, "2": 0.12318345602836854, "3": 0.15338814445062612, "4": 0.16362266278156185, "5": 0.1495227828336901, "6": 0.11705326699035926, "7": 0.07850041643727139, "8": 0.045099594260958, "9": 0.022196554310706978, "10": 0.00935859690932805, "11": 0.0033802449674319576 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0598, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0625, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_SEA@TOR	TOR	53.0%	63.6%	56.9%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	1-8	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.635717, "sample_size": 260, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5692, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.602459, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -4.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0886, "away_run_delta": 0.0886, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0503, "recent_quality_edge": 0.088, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0019 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031582067695270076 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029644403028136035 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028903304340260772 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028813262267223985 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02805739454468105 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05015098724041699, "1": 0.08507760862578068, "2": 0.1235961898744077, "3": 0.15376196227952116, "4": 0.16381239646014698, "5": 0.1494509348586945, "6": 0.1167628076647045, "7": 0.07812039742630932, "8": 0.04475879437235909, "9": 0.021960707968494888, "10": 0.009227165598946171, "11": 0.003320047630218039 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0794247302276455, "1": 0.13128689669104238, "2": 0.17644149627767944, "3": 0.19279412533930854, "4": 0.17127760261725358, "5": 0.12371463255886872, "6": 0.07265328885233029, "7": 0.03468991235510275, "8": 0.013466813369954566, "9": 0.004250501710814414 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0031, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0287, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0019, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260828	20260828_TEX@MIL	MIL	84.8%	92.0%	54.3%	50.0%	2.0-6.0	1-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 698, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.7315, "published_confidence": 0.847673, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.8321, "recent_quality_edge": 0.84, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4849 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.031915662489656944 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030676103307559686 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030065411963414893 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.02844902402539962 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.027344104177227335 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02019314603186212, "1": 0.03522431648416776, "2": 0.05563406406566622, "3": 0.07956070471914775, "4": 0.10301870340017029, "5": 0.12077948153241035, "6": 0.12821235155383287, "7": 0.12323276519311296, "8": 0.10724625724342281, "9": 0.08450797967894558, "10": 0.06029383621201086, "11": 0.038950024728080825, "12": 0.022782542118770337, "13": 0.012065803525996201, "14": 0.005785886896963358, "15": 0.0025121366154397737 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.14256715764565567, "1": 0.22188988565157586, "2": 0.24892814228008625, "3": 0.20129313615646388, "4": 0.11732820081234073, "5": 0.049294030811420156, "6": 0.014928106679044432, "7": 0.0032586191411915905, "8": 0.0005127208222214815 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "TEX 2 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "TEX 2 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0474, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.84, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4849, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.2667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.6667 }
R	{ "mae": 1.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0333 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.7, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.8333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.3, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.7333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0667 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.2, "mae_innings": 0.7333, "bias_outs": -0.6 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260828

20260828_ARI@SF

away

Kohl Drake

True

4.1

4.0

-1

6/4

2/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.3999999999999995,
      "WHIP": 1.5599999999999998,
      "IP": 16.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.167,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6239,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.053,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9774,
      "walk_factor": 0.9874,
      "homer_factor": 1.1372,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.397,
      "xwoba": 0.43,
      "barrel_percent": 16.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 49.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 534,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684442",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 77.0,
            "Pitches": 325.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 19.25,
            "Pitches": 81.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.56,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 77.0,
            "Pitches": 325.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 19.25,
            "Pitches": 81.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.56,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 77.0,
            "Pitches": 325.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 19.25,
            "Pitches": 81.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.56,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.384,
        "predicted_H": 4.699,
        "predicted_BB": 1.596,
        "predicted_SO": 3.804,
        "predicted_HR": 0.707,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9094,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4404
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.384,
          "final": 4.4984,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.699,
          "final": 5.4597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.596,
          "final": 1.8322,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.804,
          "final": 3.9186,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.707,
          "final": 2.0478,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9094,
          "final": 4.9094,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4404,
          "final": 1.4404,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 16.2,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 20,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 13,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 5.4,
        "WHIP": 1.5600000000000003,
        "K9": 7.020000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.6200000000000003,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0640610078251416,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684442",
      "player_name": "Kohl Drake",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5259,
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          "run_differential": -18.0
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "684442",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "684442",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2181
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "684442",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6239,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.053,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "684442",
            "espn_id": 5264737,
            "player_name": "Kohl Drake",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 534,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 534,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 635,
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              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 510,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 404,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "ip_rank": 523,
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              "h_rank": 490,
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              "er_rank": 503,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
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              "bb_rank": 558,
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              "k_rank": 534,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.02,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.56,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.04,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0238,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0238,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.9943,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0617,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_ARI@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_ARI@SF

home

Blade Tidwell

True

5.0

1/7

1/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.167,
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      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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            "R": 11.0,
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            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04412
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "SO": 23.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.80233,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06977
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        },
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            "Pitches": 534.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 2.1667,
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          },
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.06122
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.025,
        "predicted_H": 3.844,
        "predicted_BB": 1.66,
        "predicted_SO": 3.721,
        "predicted_HR": 0.407,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2862,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2942
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    },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.025,
          "final": 1.4789,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.844,
          "final": 2.3288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.66,
          "final": 1.3084,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.721,
          "final": 3.8696,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.407,
          "final": 0.7229,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2862,
          "final": 4.2862,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2942,
          "final": 1.2942,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.2,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 24,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.0813953488372094,
        "WHIP": 1.2209302325581395,
        "K9": 7.220930232558139,
        "HR9": 0.627906976744186,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9633522830260896,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.559,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5674,
          "prior_weight": 0.4326
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4104,
        "runs_scored": 546.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": -69.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5149,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0746,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5896,
        "offense_index": 0.9102,
        "defense_index": 0.9754,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1744
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5259,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 0.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4889,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4889,
        "offense_index": 1.0027,
        "defense_index": 0.9973,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.022
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1964,
        "offense_edge": -0.0898,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0027,
        "defense_strength": -0.0246,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0027,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9913,
        "run_prevention": 1.0127,
        "strikeout": 0.9939
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694918",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694918",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 110.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.278,
            "xwoba": 0.28,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 23.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.677,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7767,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7216,
            "command_and_miss": -0.08,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0286,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0206
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694918",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.48410615286664,
              "release_spin_rate": 2488.224804520724,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.48410615286664,
                "release_spin_rate": 2488.224804520724,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4841,
              "release_spin_rate": 2488.2248,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0206,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1472,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1692,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9969,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 0.9789,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694918",
            "espn_id": 4719088,
            "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 264,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 264,
              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 478,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 222,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 205,
              "era_value": 3.5816,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 510,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 556,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 130,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 253,
              "ip_value": 32.2,
              "ip_rank": 397,
              "h_value": 26.0,
              "h_rank": 430,
              "er_value": 13.0,
              "er_rank": 426,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 490,
              "bb_value": 12.0,
              "bb_rank": 420,
              "k_value": 27.0,
              "k_rank": 421,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4387755,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.1632,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 72,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_ARI@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_BAL@OAK

away

Brandon Young

True

5.1

7.0

-3

7/5

0/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.502702702702703,
      "WHIP": 1.3621621621621622,
      "IP": 123.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.606,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1992,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0169,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9691,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 1.0224,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 87,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 92.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.6364,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20779,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 931.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 93.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0179,
            "WHIP": 1.4821,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44643,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.89286,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.9973,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.8027,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12973
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 22.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.3531,
          "final": 4.3531,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4937,
          "final": 1.4937,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
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      "pitching": {
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      },
      "fielding": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9602418825467438,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "player_name": "Brandon Young",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4851,
        "runs_scored": 609.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1791,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5448,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7239,
        "offense_index": 1.0152,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 134,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.3955,
        "runs_scored": 585.0,
        "runs_allowed": 770.0,
        "run_differential": -185.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3806,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3657,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
        "offense_index": 0.9752,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2237,
        "offense_edge": 0.0152,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0248,
        "defense_strength": -0.0523,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0084,
        "run_prevention": 0.9901,
        "strikeout": 1.0087
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687064",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687064",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 503.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.625,
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            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
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            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.2821,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0747
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687064",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.51860048115898,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.9819103388677,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "release_speed": 88.51860048115898,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5186,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1992,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "687064",
            "espn_id": 4414339,
            "player_name": "Brandon Young",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 87,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 87,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 338,
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              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 51,
              "era_value": 3.5027,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 30,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 220,
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              "h_value": 123.0,
              "h_rank": 54,
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              "er_rank": 99,
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              "hr_rank": 68,
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              "bb_rank": 44,
              "k_value": 99.0,
              "k_rank": 92,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.224324,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.3621,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.73,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0169,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0169,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0224,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9691,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_BAL@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_BAL@OAK

home

Jacob Lopez

True

5.0

-5

4/3

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.9787234042553195,
      "WHIP": 1.4787234042553192,
      "IP": 94.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.741,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.361,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9693,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
      "walk_factor": 1.04,
      "homer_factor": 0.9048,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 11.2,
      "woba": 0.337,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 168,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.361,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9693,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
          "walk_factor": 1.04,
          "homer_factor": 0.9048,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.052,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682052",
            "espn_id": 42239,
            "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 168,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 168,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 351,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 104,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 4.9787,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 125,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 164,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 253,
              "ip_value": 94.0,
              "ip_rank": 122,
              "h_value": 92.0,
              "h_rank": 111,
              "er_value": 52.0,
              "er_rank": 80,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 75,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 39,
              "k_value": 90.0,
              "k_rank": 108,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.617022,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.4787,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.99,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9693,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9693,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.04,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9048,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9954,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_BAL@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_BOS@NYY

away

Patrick Sandoval

True

5.0

5.1

-3

6/3

2/4

3/7

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.53781512605042,
      "WHIP": 1.7647058823529413,
      "IP": 39.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.958,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1078,
      "sample_weight": 0.636,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0092,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0051,
      "walk_factor": 1.0076,
      "homer_factor": 0.9943,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.378,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 613,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663776",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2597,
            "WHIP": 1.8312,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 184.0,
            "Pitches": 672.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.875,
            "H": 6.5,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 5.125,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5378,
            "WHIP": 1.7647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5042,
            "H_per_IP": 1.31092,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45378,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03361,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12605
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 184.0,
            "Pitches": 672.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.875,
            "H": 6.5,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 5.125,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5378,
            "WHIP": 1.7647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5042,
            "H_per_IP": 1.31092,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45378,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03361,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12605
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.685,
        "predicted_H": 5.857,
        "predicted_BB": 2.299,
        "predicted_SO": 5.113,
        "predicted_HR": 0.733,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8327,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6311
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.685,
          "final": 2.8464,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.857,
          "final": 4.9053,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.299,
          "final": 2.1458,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.113,
          "final": 3.5176,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.733,
          "final": 0.8698,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8327,
          "final": 4.8327,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6311,
          "final": 1.6311,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 39.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.53781512605042,
        "WHIP": 1.764705882352941,
        "K9": 9.30252100840336,
        "HR9": 1.134453781512605,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0258012312862395,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663776",
      "player_name": "Patrick Sandoval",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "before": 4.0,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "boosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5489,
        "runs_scored": 600.0,
        "runs_allowed": 499.0,
        "run_differential": 101.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7594,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5113,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7519,
        "offense_index": 1.0095,
        "defense_index": 1.191,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.205
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5639,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 496.0,
        "run_differential": 100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4812,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7293,
        "offense_index": 1.0028,
        "defense_index": 1.1982,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2169
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0119,
        "offense_edge": 0.0095,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0028,
        "defense_strength": 0.191,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1982,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0051,
        "run_prevention": 0.9819,
        "strikeout": 0.9994
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663776",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663776",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 159.0,
            "k_percent": 22.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.378,
            "xwoba": 0.339,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.5494,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4087,
            "whiff_percent": 26.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5098,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0443,
            "regression_edge": 1.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1571,
            "bb_edge": -0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0871
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663776",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.29745412076173,
              "release_spin_rate": 2185.3833510165955,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.29745412076173,
                "release_spin_rate": 2185.3833510165955,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2975,
              "release_spin_rate": 2185.3834,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0871,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6219,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1078,
          "sample_weight": 0.636,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0092,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0051,
          "walk_factor": 1.0076,
          "homer_factor": 0.9943,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.039,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663776",
            "espn_id": 40975,
            "player_name": "Patrick Sandoval",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 613,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 613,
              "gp_value": 8.0,
              "gp_rank": 535,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 179,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 174,
              "era_value": 4.5378,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 391,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 306,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 39.2,
              "ip_rank": 351,
              "h_value": 52.0,
              "h_rank": 206,
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": 291,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 291,
              "bb_value": 18.0,
              "bb_rank": 306,
              "k_value": 41.0,
              "k_rank": 319,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.302522,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.7647,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.16,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0048,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9964,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0032,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_BOS@NYY

home

Cam Schlittler

True

6.0

5.2

-1

-2

6/2

3/5

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.1645569620253164,
      "WHIP": 0.9620253164556962,
      "IP": 158.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.852,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6471,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.945,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0703,
      "walk_factor": 0.934,
      "homer_factor": 0.9801,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.255,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
      "whiff_percent": 28.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 3,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 158.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.165,
      "season_WHIP": 0.962,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6024,
            "WHIP": 1.1205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68675,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3012,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 947.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 7.5,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 94.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1034,
            "WHIP": 1.0345,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74138,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2931,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13793
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 158.0,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 193.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 627.0,
            "Pitches": 2482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4074,
            "R": 1.6667,
            "H": 4.2593,
            "BB": 1.3704,
            "SO": 7.1481,
            "HR": 0.5185,
            "BF": 23.2222,
            "Pitches": 91.9259
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1646,
            "WHIP": 0.962,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24051,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72785,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23418,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22152,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08861
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.909,
        "predicted_H": 4.36,
        "predicted_BB": 2.012,
        "predicted_SO": 7.099,
        "predicted_HR": 0.613,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9755,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1034
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.909,
          "final": 2.7788,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.36,
          "final": 5.8742,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.012,
          "final": 2.423,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 7.099,
          "final": 6.6418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.613,
          "final": 0.358,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9755,
          "final": 2.9755,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1034,
          "final": 1.1034,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 75,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.103448275862069,
        "WHIP": 1.0344827586206897,
        "K9": 11.637931034482758,
        "HR9": 1.2413793103448276,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8461793825467439,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5639,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 496.0,
        "run_differential": 100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4812,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7293,
        "offense_index": 1.0028,
        "defense_index": 1.1982,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2169
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5489,
        "runs_scored": 600.0,
        "runs_allowed": 499.0,
        "run_differential": 101.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7594,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5113,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7519,
        "offense_index": 1.0095,
        "defense_index": 1.191,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.205
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0119,
        "offense_edge": 0.0028,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0095,
        "defense_strength": 0.1982,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.191,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.006,
        "run_prevention": 0.9811,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
            "k_percent": 30.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.255,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3309,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8079,
            "whiff_percent": 28.7,
            "swing_percent": 52.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7511,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9057,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.86598593414776,
              "release_spin_rate": 2500.592351861234,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.86598593414776,
                "release_spin_rate": 2500.592351861234,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.866,
              "release_spin_rate": 2500.5924,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6471,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.945,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0703,
          "walk_factor": 0.934,
          "homer_factor": 0.9801,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_id": 5134581,
            "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 3,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 3,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 226,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 5,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 8,
              "era_value": 2.1645,
              "era_rank": 3.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 19,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 99,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 158.0,
              "ip_rank": 6,
              "h_value": 115.0,
              "h_rank": 74,
              "er_value": 38.0,
              "er_rank": 143,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 90,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 85,
              "k_value": 193.0,
              "k_rank": 6,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.993671,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 0.962,
              "whip_rank": 4.0,
              "war_value": 5.5,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.945,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.945,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9801,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0703,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_CHW@MIN

away

Luis Castillo

True

5.0

4.0

-3

5/8

4/1

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.186440677966102,
      "WHIP": 1.4152542372881356,
      "IP": 118.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.079,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.359,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0305,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.0983,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 803,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "622491",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5571,
            "WHIP": 1.7571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.45714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 891.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 89.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4351,
            "WHIP": 1.461,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6039,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23377,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77922,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23377
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 118.0,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 105.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 525.0,
            "Pitches": 2121.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8333,
            "R": 3.25,
            "H": 5.4167,
            "BB": 1.5417,
            "SO": 4.375,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 21.875,
            "Pitches": 88.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1864,
            "WHIP": 1.4153,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57627,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10169,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31356,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88983,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17797
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.063,
        "predicted_H": 6.088,
        "predicted_BB": 1.438,
        "predicted_SO": 4.245,
        "predicted_HR": 1.142,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6535,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5437
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.063,
          "final": 2.6135,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.088,
          "final": 5.628,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.438,
          "final": 2.5213,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.245,
          "final": 4.5642,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.142,
          "final": 1.082,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6535,
          "final": 5.6535,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5437,
          "final": 1.5437,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 5.4350649350649345,
        "WHIP": 1.461038961038961,
        "K9": 7.012987012987013,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.119150161767523,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "622491",
      "player_name": "Luis Castillo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "after": 2.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5263,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 597.0,
        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8195,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4887,
        "offense_index": 1.08,
        "defense_index": 0.9941,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0631
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4776,
        "runs_scored": 615.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4179,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5896,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0075,
        "offense_index": 1.0285,
        "defense_index": 0.8911,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1055
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1686,
        "offense_edge": 0.08,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0285,
        "defense_strength": -0.0059,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1089,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0054,
        "run_prevention": 0.9967,
        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "622491",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "622491",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 502.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.346,
            "xwoba": 0.339,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8594,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.529,
            "whiff_percent": 24.8,
            "swing_percent": 52.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6747,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0386,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0571,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1105
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "622491",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.82478399959184,
              "release_spin_rate": 2186.058161203955,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.82478399959184,
                "release_spin_rate": 2186.058161203955,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.8248,
              "release_spin_rate": 2186.0582,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1105,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.789,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.359,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0305,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.0983,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "622491",
            "espn_id": 35124,
            "player_name": "Luis Castillo",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 803,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 803,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 304,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 83,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 105,
              "era_value": 5.1864,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 176,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 253,
              "ip_value": 118.0,
              "ip_rank": 88,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 34,
              "er_value": 68.0,
              "er_rank": 20,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 22,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 85,
              "k_value": 105.0,
              "k_rank": 79,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.008475,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.4152,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.84,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0305,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0305,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0983,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_CHW@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_CHW@MIN

home

Dean Kremer

True

5.0

4.0

-3

5/7

2/3

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.215909090909091,
      "WHIP": 1.1761363636363638,
      "IP": 58.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0247,
      "sample_weight": 0.868,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9979,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0258,
      "walk_factor": 0.9774,
      "homer_factor": 0.9977,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.331,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 365,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 11,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.1625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 884.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3665,
            "WHIP": 1.1739,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59627,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81988,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35404,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "summary": {
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          },
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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      "team": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4179,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "665152",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665152",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "665152",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.5973,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.0247,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
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            "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
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            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.1761,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_CHW@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_CIN@CHC

away

Rhett Lowder

True

5.0

5/6

3/0

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.130841121495327,
      "WHIP": 1.4672897196261683,
      "IP": 107.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5578,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0474,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9389,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 1.0715,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.346,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 19.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 211,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 193.0,
            "Pitches": 700.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 2.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 19.3,
            "Pitches": 70.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8722,
            "WHIP": 1.3534,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54135,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06015,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29323,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60902,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 107.0,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 478.0,
            "Pitches": 1794.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6522,
            "R": 2.7391,
            "H": 4.9565,
            "BB": 1.8696,
            "SO": 3.6087,
            "HR": 0.6522,
            "BF": 20.7826,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1308,
            "WHIP": 1.4673,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57009,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06542,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40187,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7757,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14019
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.616,
        "predicted_H": 5.366,
        "predicted_BB": 1.521,
        "predicted_SO": 3.631,
        "predicted_HR": 0.884,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4919,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3139
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.616,
          "final": 2.3539,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.366,
          "final": 5.2103,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.521,
          "final": 2.1503,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.631,
          "final": 3.3625,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.884,
          "final": 0.5079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4919,
          "final": 4.4919,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3139,
          "final": 1.3139,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 27,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.87218045112782,
        "WHIP": 1.3533834586466165,
        "K9": 5.481203007518797,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0531342697647887,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "delta": -0.6667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4701,
        "runs_scored": 548.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": -100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7463,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0896,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8358,
        "offense_index": 0.9113,
        "defense_index": 0.928,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 576.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8881,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1866,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2985,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 12.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1557,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9791
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695076",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695076",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 17.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.339,
            "xwoba": 0.346,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.1735,
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            "whiff_percent": 19.1,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.5907,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0,
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            "whiff_edge": -0.8714,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0372
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695076",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.18784850252824,
              "release_spin_rate": 2345.0409152257157,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.18784850252824,
                "release_spin_rate": 2345.0409152257157,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1878,
              "release_spin_rate": 2345.0409,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0372,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2658,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5578,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0474,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9389,
          "walk_factor": 0.996,
          "homer_factor": 1.0715,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695076",
            "espn_id": 4758873,
            "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 211,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 211,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 321,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 89,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 5.1308,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 125,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 107.0,
              "ip_rank": 99,
              "h_value": 114.0,
              "h_rank": 75,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 48,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 75,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 53,
              "k_value": 83.0,
              "k_rank": 128,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.981308,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.4672,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.71,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0715,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9389,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_CIN@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_CIN@CHC

home

David Peterson

True

4.2

5.0

-2

8/6

1/3

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.171830985915493,
      "WHIP": 1.504225352112676,
      "IP": 118.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.078,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3377,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0287,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0301,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.338,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 795,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 396.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 79.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.662,
            "WHIP": 1.4366,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29577,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05634,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09859,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08451
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 813.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 81.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9338,
            "WHIP": 1.3113,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43709,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93377,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37748,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11921
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 118.1,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 103.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 532.0,
            "Pitches": 1950.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6154,
            "R": 2.8846,
            "H": 4.9615,
            "BB": 1.8846,
            "SO": 3.9615,
            "HR": 0.4615,
            "BF": 20.4615,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1718,
            "WHIP": 1.5042,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57465,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09014,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41408,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87042,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10141
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.033,
        "predicted_H": 4.935,
        "predicted_BB": 1.868,
        "predicted_SO": 4.609,
        "predicted_HR": 0.524,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7555,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3963
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.033,
          "final": 2.8555,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.935,
          "final": 6.2166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.868,
          "final": 1.505,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.609,
          "final": 4.7725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.524,
          "final": 0.3049,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7555,
          "final": 3.7555,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3963,
          "final": 1.3963,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.9337748344370866,
        "WHIP": 1.3112582781456954,
        "K9": 7.152317880794703,
        "HR9": 1.0728476821192054,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9465105083745583,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "player_name": "David Peterson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5672,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 576.0,
        "run_differential": 119.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8881,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1866,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2985,
        "offense_index": 1.1557,
        "defense_index": 1.044,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.131
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4701,
        "runs_scored": 548.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": -100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7463,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0896,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8358,
        "offense_index": 0.9113,
        "defense_index": 0.928,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1519
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2829,
        "offense_edge": 0.1557,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0887,
        "defense_strength": 0.044,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.072,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0162,
        "run_prevention": 0.9673,
        "strikeout": 1.0156
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656849",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656849",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 503.0,
            "k_percent": 19.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.338,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2137,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4862,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4173,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3171,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0545
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656849",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.87843836354706,
              "release_spin_rate": 2125.964579008083,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.87843836354706,
                "release_spin_rate": 2125.964579008083,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8784,
              "release_spin_rate": 2125.9646,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0545,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3895,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3377,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0287,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0301,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656849",
            "espn_id": 40921,
            "player_name": "David Peterson",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 795,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 795,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 249,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 110,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 5.1718,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 74,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 70,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 130,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 253,
              "ip_value": 118.1,
              "ip_rank": 83,
              "h_value": 129.0,
              "h_rank": 38,
              "er_value": 68.0,
              "er_rank": 20,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 121,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 28,
              "k_value": 103.0,
              "k_rank": 83,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.8338027,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.5042,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.79,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0287,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0287,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0301,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_CIN@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_COL@ATL

away

Tomoyuki Sugano

True

5.1

4.0

-4

-2

7/10

4/1

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.956164383561644,
      "WHIP": 1.3150684931506849,
      "IP": 121.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.29,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.1563,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0983,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9126,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 1.21,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 13.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.36,
      "xwoba": 0.395,
      "barrel_percent": 13.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
      "whiff_percent": 18.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 102,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.961,
            "WHIP": 1.4026,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66234,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24675,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15584,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23377
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.9,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 87.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.075,
            "WHIP": 1.35,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.675,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2625
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 121.2,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 516.0,
            "Pitches": 1992.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.913,
            "R": 3.0435,
            "H": 5.7391,
            "BB": 1.2174,
            "SO": 3.087,
            "HR": 1.1304,
            "BF": 22.4348,
            "Pitches": 86.6087
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9562,
            "WHIP": 1.3151,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55068,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08493,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23014,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58356,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2137
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.225,
        "predicted_H": 6.035,
        "predicted_BB": 1.065,
        "predicted_SO": 3.401,
        "predicted_HR": 1.163,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5708,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3628
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.225,
          "final": 5.2566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.035,
          "final": 6.4456,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.065,
          "final": 2.3137,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.401,
          "final": 3.2304,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.163,
          "final": 1.5191,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5708,
          "final": 5.5708,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3628,
          "final": 1.3628,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 64,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 32,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 6.075,
        "WHIP": 1.35,
        "K9": 5.4,
        "HR9": 2.3625000000000003,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1883668825467437,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 8.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 8.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.3881,
        "runs_scored": 637.0,
        "runs_allowed": 775.0,
        "run_differential": -138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0299,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7537,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7836,
        "offense_index": 1.0638,
        "defense_index": 0.7726,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.6,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3269
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5896,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 512.0,
        "run_differential": 113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8433,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6642,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8209,
        "offense_index": 1.0438,
        "defense_index": 1.1695,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.18
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5069,
        "offense_edge": 0.0638,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0438,
        "defense_strength": -0.2274,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1695,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9712,
        "run_prevention": 1.0551,
        "strikeout": 0.9813
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 487.0,
            "k_percent": 13.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.4,
            "woba": 0.36,
            "xwoba": 0.395,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 13.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4348,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1656,
            "whiff_percent": 18.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.5523,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6921,
            "regression_edge": -1.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.4,
            "barrel_edge": -1.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": -1.0143,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0885
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.27152055516693,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.6362856997916,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.27152055516693,
                "release_spin_rate": 2295.6362856997916,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2715,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.6363,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0885,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6323,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.1563,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0983,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9126,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 1.21,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608372",
            "espn_id": 4142423,
            "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 102,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 102,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 321,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 66,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 73,
              "era_value": 4.9561,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 13,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 70,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 121.2,
              "ip_rank": 80,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 30,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 24,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 7,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 162,
              "k_value": 71.0,
              "k_rank": 160,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.2520547,
              "k_per_9_rank": 54,
              "whip_value": 1.315,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.59,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0983,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0983,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.2,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9126,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 8,
      "predicted_ER": 8,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_COL@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_COL@ATL

home

Grant Holmes

True

5.0

5/8

2/1

2/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.795755968169761,
      "WHIP": 1.3527851458885942,
      "IP": 125.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4078,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0347,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9949,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 1.0869,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 64,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 377.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 75.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0759,
            "WHIP": 1.1772,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75949,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64557,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 761.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 76.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8609,
            "WHIP": 1.1722,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31788,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83444,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33775,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69536,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09934
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 125.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 102.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 542.0,
            "Pitches": 2026.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0385,
            "R": 2.1154,
            "H": 4.3462,
            "BB": 2.1923,
            "SO": 3.9231,
            "HR": 0.7308,
            "BF": 20.8462,
            "Pitches": 77.9231
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7958,
            "WHIP": 1.3528,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42175,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8992,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45358,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81167,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15119
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.896,
        "predicted_H": 4.257,
        "predicted_BB": 1.99,
        "predicted_SO": 3.731,
        "predicted_HR": 0.687,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.366,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2322
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.896,
          "final": 2.3576,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.257,
          "final": 4.5677,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.99,
          "final": 1.9942,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.731,
          "final": 3.0072,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.687,
          "final": 0.8179,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.366,
          "final": 3.366,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2322,
          "final": 1.2322,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.860927152317881,
        "WHIP": 1.1721854304635764,
        "K9": 6.258278145695365,
        "HR9": 0.8940397350993379,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8223383229440948,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5896,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 512.0,
        "run_differential": 113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8433,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6642,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8209,
        "offense_index": 1.0438,
        "defense_index": 1.1695,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.18
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.3881,
        "runs_scored": 637.0,
        "runs_allowed": 775.0,
        "run_differential": -138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0299,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7537,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7836,
        "offense_index": 1.0638,
        "defense_index": 0.7726,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.6,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3269
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5069,
        "offense_edge": 0.0438,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0638,
        "defense_strength": 0.1695,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2274,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0228,
        "run_prevention": 0.9679,
        "strikeout": 1.0101
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656550",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656550",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 505.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.0172,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7258,
            "whiff_percent": 27.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5529,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1393,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0239
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656550",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.4253815918858,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5893886602285,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.4253815918858,
                "release_spin_rate": 2458.5893886602285,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4254,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5894,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0239,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1707,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4078,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0347,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9949,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.0869,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656550",
            "espn_id": 33840,
            "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 64,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 64,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 281,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 55,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 71,
              "era_value": 3.6388,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 49,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 127,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 123.2,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 86,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 87,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 32,
              "bb_value": 54.0,
              "bb_rank": 17,
              "k_value": 100.0,
              "k_rank": 88,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.277628,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.318,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.1,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0347,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0347,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0869,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_COL@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_HOU@NYM

away

Hunter Brown

True

5.1

6.2

-2

6/5

2/1

6/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5112107623318387,
      "WHIP": 1.3318385650224216,
      "IP": 74.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.31,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2033,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9827,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0103,
      "walk_factor": 1.09,
      "homer_factor": 0.9698,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.1,
      "bb_percent": 13.7,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.5,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 110,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.622,
            "WHIP": 1.4268,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40244,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87805,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54878,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95122,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18293
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 942.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2545,
            "WHIP": 1.3818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58182,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16364
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 74.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 315.0,
            "Pitches": 1299.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0714,
            "R": 2.2143,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.0714,
            "SO": 5.4286,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 92.7857
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5112,
            "WHIP": 1.3318,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39013,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75336,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57848,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02242,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13453
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.373,
        "predicted_H": 4.614,
        "predicted_BB": 2.744,
        "predicted_SO": 5.009,
        "predicted_HR": 0.861,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0044,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3796
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.0044,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.984361200728562,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 613.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3284,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5746,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.903,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
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          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 134,
        "wins": 60,
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        "win_pct": 0.4478,
        "runs_scored": 552.0,
        "runs_allowed": 604.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3881,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1194,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5075,
        "offense_index": 0.9218,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0921
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0237,
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        "defense_strength": -0.0886,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0011,
        "run_prevention": 0.9955,
        "strikeout": 1.0068
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 291.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 73.0056,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2371,
            "whiff_percent": 24.9,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
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            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3515,
            "command_and_miss": -0.105,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0429,
            "bb_edge": -1.125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1369
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.29605869429095,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.9095575606843,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.29605869429095,
                "release_spin_rate": 2200.9095575606843,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.2961,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1369,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.9775,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2033,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9827,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_id": 4717803,
            "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 110,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 110,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 455,
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              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 105,
              "era_value": 3.5112,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 229,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 220,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 74.1,
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              "h_value": 56.0,
              "h_rank": 189,
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": 182,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 146,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 53,
              "k_value": 76.0,
              "k_rank": 143,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.201794,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.3318,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.49,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9827,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9827,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.09,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9698,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0103,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_HOU@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_HOU@NYM

home

Christian Scott

True

5.2

5.1

-1

2/1

0/5

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.7276119402985075,
      "WHIP": 1.3208955223880599,
      "IP": 89.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.702,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1504,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9872,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0474,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 0.9822,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 95,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681035",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1923,
            "WHIP": 1.4615,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07692,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11538
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2534,
            "WHIP": 1.2945,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4726,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88356,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41096,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12329
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 89.1,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 390.0,
            "Pitches": 1627.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9474,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.1579,
            "BB": 2.0526,
            "SO": 5.8421,
            "HR": 0.5263,
            "BF": 20.5263,
            "Pitches": 85.6316
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7276,
            "WHIP": 1.3209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41418,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88433,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43657,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24254,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11194
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.602,
        "predicted_H": 4.99,
        "predicted_BB": 2.039,
        "predicted_SO": 6.212,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.5596,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3687
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.602,
          "final": 2.3383,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.99,
          "final": 3.6804,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.039,
          "final": 1.1459,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.212,
          "final": 6.5571,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.635,
          "final": 0.3569,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5596,
          "final": 4.5596,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3687,
          "final": 1.3687,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.2534246575342465,
        "WHIP": 1.2945205479452053,
        "K9": 11.835616438356164,
        "HR9": 1.1095890410958904,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9820526702179765,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681035",
      "player_name": "Christian Scott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.025,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.1333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.1333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.1333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4478,
        "runs_scored": 552.0,
        "runs_allowed": 604.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3881,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1194,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5075,
        "offense_index": 0.9218,
        "defense_index": 0.9914,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0921
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 613.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3284,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5746,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.903,
        "offense_index": 1.0237,
        "defense_index": 0.9114,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0754
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0167,
        "offense_edge": -0.0782,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0237,
        "defense_strength": -0.0086,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0886,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9981,
        "run_prevention": 1.0055,
        "strikeout": 0.9976
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681035",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681035",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 367.0,
            "k_percent": 28.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.971,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1339,
            "whiff_percent": 27.0,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.024,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4679,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2571,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0123
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681035",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.07194600258177,
              "release_spin_rate": 2347.3186219792724,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.07194600258177,
                "release_spin_rate": 2347.3186219792724,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0719,
              "release_spin_rate": 2347.3186,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0123,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0879,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1504,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9872,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0474,
          "walk_factor": 1.016,
          "homer_factor": 0.9822,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "681035",
            "espn_id": 4414215,
            "player_name": "Christian Scott",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 95,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 95,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 381,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 97,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 3.7276,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 176,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 220,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 89.1,
              "ip_rank": 131,
              "h_value": 79.0,
              "h_rank": 137,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 147,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 146,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 72,
              "k_value": 111.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.182836,
              "k_per_9_rank": 14,
              "whip_value": 1.3208,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.63,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9872,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9872,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9822,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_HOU@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_KC@CLE

away

Michael Wacha

True

6.0

8.0

-2

5/4

3/0

7/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4856557377049184,
      "WHIP": 1.125,
      "IP": 162.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.256,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0949,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0081,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
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      "pitching": {
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        {
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      "opponent": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "608379",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608379",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "release_speed": 86.9836,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "metrics": {
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              "war_rank": 1.0
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_KC@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_KC@CLE

home

Tanner Bibee

True

6.0

-1

3/7

1/2

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.1449893390191896,
      "IP": 156.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.79,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1779,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0151,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9777,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 1.0387,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 76,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "676440",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 486.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 97.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 0.9894,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47872,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76596,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2234,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82979,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19149
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 935.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 93.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2787,
            "WHIP": 1.1475,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47541,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90164,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2459,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68852,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16393
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.1,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 135.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 123.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 637.0,
            "Pitches": 2439.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5556,
            "R": 2.7037,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6296,
            "SO": 4.5556,
            "HR": 0.963,
            "BF": 23.5926,
            "Pitches": 90.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9723,
            "WHIP": 1.145,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44136,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28145,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78678,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16631
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.884,
        "predicted_H": 5.191,
        "predicted_BB": 1.594,
        "predicted_SO": 4.847,
        "predicted_HR": 1.045,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2755,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1179
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.884,
          "final": 2.5163,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.191,
          "final": 4.2796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.594,
          "final": 1.3469,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.847,
          "final": 5.7426,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.045,
          "final": 1.0263,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2755,
          "final": 4.2755,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1179,
          "final": 1.1179,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.278688524590164,
        "WHIP": 1.1475409836065573,
        "K9": 6.19672131147541,
        "HR9": 1.4754098360655739,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9812203661533012,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5075,
        "runs_scored": 543.0,
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        "run_differential": -4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0299,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0522,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0821,
        "offense_index": 0.9068,
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        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 60,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8815,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0189
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0932,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0419,
        "defense_strength": 0.0947,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9794,
        "strikeout": 1.006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676440",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676440",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.8848,
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            "whiff_percent": 24.0,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1243
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676440",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.63291987951403,
              "release_spin_rate": 2307.0595731062376,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 99,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.6329,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0151,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9777,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 1.0387,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676440",
            "espn_id": 4345278,
            "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 76,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 76,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 226,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 5,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 8,
              "era_value": 3.9722,
              "era_rank": 37.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 125,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 2,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 156.1,
              "ip_rank": 8,
              "h_value": 135.0,
              "h_rank": 24,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 15,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 7,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 49,
              "k_value": 123.0,
              "k_rank": 52,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.081023,
              "k_per_9_rank": 175,
              "whip_value": 1.1449,
              "whip_rank": 22.0,
              "war_value": 1.88,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0151,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0151,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0387,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9777,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_KC@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_LAD@DET

away

Tarik Skubal

True

6.0

2/4

2/0

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.908839779005525,
      "WHIP": 0.9530386740331491,
      "IP": 120.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.033,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7649,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.935,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0914,
      "walk_factor": 0.904,
      "homer_factor": 0.9527,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.4,
      "woba": 0.265,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 32.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 22,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.0435,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 80.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 941.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 94.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5082,
            "WHIP": 0.918,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27869,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70492,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21311,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31148,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06557
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 120.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 146.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 473.0,
            "Pitches": 1826.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.95,
            "R": 2.15,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.05,
            "SO": 7.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.65,
            "Pitches": 91.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9088,
            "WHIP": 0.953,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3232,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77901,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17403,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20994,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09945
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.226,
        "predicted_H": 4.793,
        "predicted_BB": 1.532,
        "predicted_SO": 7.031,
        "predicted_HR": 0.523,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3389,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0541
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.226,
          "final": 1.6933,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.793,
          "final": 3.5794,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.532,
          "final": 1.7353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 7.031,
          "final": 5.2795,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.523,
          "final": 0.7303,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3389,
          "final": 3.3389,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0541,
          "final": 1.0541,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 80,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.5081967213114753,
        "WHIP": 0.9180327868852459,
        "K9": 11.80327868852459,
        "HR9": 0.5901639344262295,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7763023333664159,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.3333,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4286,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "direction": "boost",
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.597,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 513.0,
        "run_differential": 148.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1045,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9328,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8284,
        "offense_index": 1.1039,
        "defense_index": 1.1673,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2534
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 522.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5263,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4511,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9248,
        "offense_index": 0.9961,
        "defense_index": 1.1386,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.069
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3224,
        "offense_edge": 0.1039,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0039,
        "defense_strength": 0.1673,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1386,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0181,
        "run_prevention": 0.9665,
        "strikeout": 1.01
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 444.0,
            "k_percent": 30.9,
            "bb_percent": 4.4,
            "woba": 0.265,
            "xwoba": 0.267,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.1297,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4737,
            "whiff_percent": 32.3,
            "swing_percent": 53.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8124,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1671,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0143,
            "bb_edge": 1.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1525
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.57479172715446,
              "release_spin_rate": 2164.2997542296353,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.57479172715446,
                "release_spin_rate": 2164.2997542296353,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5748,
              "release_spin_rate": 2164.2998,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1525,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.089,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7649,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.935,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0914,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669373",
            "espn_id": 42409,
            "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 22,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 22,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 368,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 89,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 27,
              "era_value": 2.9088,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 49,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 70,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 120.2,
              "ip_rank": 81,
              "h_value": 94.0,
              "h_rank": 108,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 139,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 121,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 246,
              "k_value": 146.0,
              "k_rank": 24,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.889503,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8,
              "whip_value": 0.953,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.24,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.935,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.935,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.904,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9527,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0914,
            "adjusted": 8
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_LAD@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_LAD@DET

home

Drew Anderson

True

4.1

4.2

-1

4/4

1/5

10/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.2909836065573772,
      "IP": 81.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 44,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.167,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9834,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0201,
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      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 8.9,
      "woba": 0.321,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 28.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 231,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.33,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.7656,
        "prior_weight": 0.2344
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "623454",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 44,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 77.0,
            "Pitches": 283.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
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            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36842,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89474,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21053
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 2.3,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 10.6,
            "Pitches": 40.1
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3026,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90789,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82895,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 81.1,
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            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 75.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 348.0,
            "Pitches": 1346.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8409,
            "R": 0.9091,
            "H": 1.7045,
            "BB": 0.6818,
            "SO": 2.0682,
            "HR": 0.2955,
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            "Pitches": 30.5909
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0943,
            "WHIP": 1.291,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45492,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92213,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36885,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11885,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15984
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.421,
        "predicted_H": 3.04,
        "predicted_BB": 1.18,
        "predicted_SO": 2.925,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.8752,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.279
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.449,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7656,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.7656,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.421,
          "final": 1.232,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.04,
          "final": 3.4711,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.18,
          "final": 1.0992,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 10.0,
          "form": 2.925,
          "final": 6.1019,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.573,
          "final": 0.3157,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8752,
          "final": 3.8752,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.279,
          "final": 1.279,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 25.1,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 23,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 4,
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        "K9": 7.460526315789474,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.953153052662185,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 10.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7656,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
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              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 10.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 522.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5263,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4511,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9248,
        "offense_index": 0.9961,
        "defense_index": 1.1386,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.069
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.597,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 513.0,
        "run_differential": 148.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1045,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9328,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8284,
        "offense_index": 1.1039,
        "defense_index": 1.1673,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2534
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3224,
        "offense_edge": -0.0039,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1039,
        "defense_strength": 0.1386,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1673,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9871,
        "run_prevention": 1.0189,
        "strikeout": 0.982
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "623454",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "623454",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 305.0,
            "k_percent": 26.1,
            "bb_percent": 8.9,
            "woba": 0.321,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.5709,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2164,
            "whiff_percent": 28.2,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0283,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4286,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0251
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "623454",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 47,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 47,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.30111562509353,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939147176737,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 47,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30111562509353,
                "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939147176737,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3011,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0251,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1796,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.195,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9834,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
          "walk_factor": 0.994,
          "homer_factor": 1.0201,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "623454",
            "espn_id": 28617,
            "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 231,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 231,
              "gp_value": 44.0,
              "gp_rank": 120,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 197,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 205,
              "era_value": 4.0942,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 176,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 127,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 84,
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": 138,
              "ip_value": 81.1,
              "ip_rank": 147,
              "h_value": 75.0,
              "h_rank": 148,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 147,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 109,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 141,
              "k_value": 91.0,
              "k_rank": 104,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.069673,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.2909,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.59,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9834,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9834,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0201,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0406,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_LAD@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_MIA@WAS

away

Eury Pérez

True

5.2

3.0

-8

4/2

2/4

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1723237597911225,
      "WHIP": 1.112271540469974,
      "IP": 127.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.551,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2325,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9802,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0457,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.0287,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.6,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.284,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 28.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 57,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 488.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 97.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.1034,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48276,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 962.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 96.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7901,
            "WHIP": 0.9945,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.1989,
            "H_per_IP": 0.59669,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39779,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.01657
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 90.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 515.0,
            "Pitches": 2093.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9565,
            "R": 2.2174,
            "H": 3.913,
            "BB": 2.2609,
            "SO": 5.9565,
            "HR": 0.5652,
            "BF": 22.3913,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1723,
            "WHIP": 1.1123,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35248,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70496,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40731,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07311,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10183
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.62,
        "predicted_H": 3.982,
        "predicted_BB": 2.453,
        "predicted_SO": 6.02,
        "predicted_HR": 0.275,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5308,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1167
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.62,
          "final": 1.3562,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.982,
          "final": 3.9897,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.453,
          "final": 2.2603,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.02,
          "final": 5.1606,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.275,
          "final": 0.158,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5308,
          "final": 2.5308,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1167,
          "final": 1.1167,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 1.7900552486187844,
        "WHIP": 0.994475138121547,
        "K9": 9.546961325966851,
        "HR9": 0.14917127071823205,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6974224764693957,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "player_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            },
            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5075,
        "runs_scored": 582.0,
        "runs_allowed": 563.0,
        "run_differential": 19.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1418,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3433,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2015,
        "offense_index": 0.9719,
        "defense_index": 1.0636,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0238
      },
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        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4632,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 692.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1765,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0882,
        "offense_index": 1.1584,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0904
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1142,
        "offense_edge": -0.0281,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1584,
        "defense_strength": 0.0636,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1218,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0001,
        "run_prevention": 1.0133,
        "strikeout": 0.9908
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691587",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691587",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 26.6,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.284,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7544,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0177,
            "whiff_percent": 28.6,
            "swing_percent": 51.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2621,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4207,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4857,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1686
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691587",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.86224536987449,
              "release_spin_rate": 2522.012850884775,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.86224536987449,
                "release_spin_rate": 2522.012850884775,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8622,
              "release_spin_rate": 2522.0129,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1686,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.204,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2325,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9802,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0457,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.0287,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "691587",
            "espn_id": 4917854,
            "player_name": "Eury Perez",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 57,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 57,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 321,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 66,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 37,
              "era_value": 3.1723,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 74,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 20,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 127.2,
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              "h_value": 90.0,
              "h_rank": 114,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 112,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 109,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 20,
              "k_value": 137.0,
              "k_rank": 33,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.657964,
              "k_per_9_rank": 14,
              "whip_value": 1.1122,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.27,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9802,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9802,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0287,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0457,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_MIA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_MIA@WAS

home

Jackson Kent

True

3.2

7.0

-2

3/3

0/4

1/3

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 2.108108108108108,
      "IP": 12.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.111,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0263,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9964,
      "walk_factor": 1.0792,
      "homer_factor": 1.0573,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.0,
      "bb_percent": 18.0,
      "woba": 0.388,
      "xwoba": 0.372,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 686,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 61.0,
            "Pitches": 252.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.6667,
            "R": 3.6667,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.6667,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 20.3333,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.027,
            "WHIP": 2.1081,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21622,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13514,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 61.0,
            "Pitches": 252.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.6667,
            "R": 3.6667,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.6667,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 20.3333,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 2.1081,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21622,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13514,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
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            "BF": 61.0,
            "Pitches": 252.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.6667,
            "R": 3.6667,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.6667,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
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            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.027,
            "WHIP": 2.1081,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.21622,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13514,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.863,
        "predicted_H": 4.707,
        "predicted_BB": 2.497,
        "predicted_SO": 4.482,
        "predicted_HR": 0.54,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.631
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6141,
      "form_weight": 0.3859,
      "form_reliability": 0.375,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.863,
          "final": 2.9471,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.707,
          "final": 3.6588,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.497,
          "final": 0.9637,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.482,
          "final": 2.3438,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.54,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.8333,
          "final": 5.8333,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.631,
          "final": 1.631,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 12.1,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 15,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 14,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 8.027027027027026,
        "WHIP": 2.108108108108108,
        "K9": 10.216216216216216,
        "HR9": 0.7297297297297297,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1719785478041846,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.375,
          "prior_weight": 0.625
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
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          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.3143,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -1.4667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.3143,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 4.6667,
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            "delta": -1.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.3143,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4632,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 692.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1765,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0882,
        "offense_index": 1.1584,
        "defense_index": 0.8782,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0904
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5075,
        "runs_scored": 582.0,
        "runs_allowed": 563.0,
        "run_differential": 19.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1418,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3433,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2015,
        "offense_index": 0.9719,
        "defense_index": 1.0636,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0238
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1142,
        "offense_edge": 0.1584,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0281,
        "defense_strength": -0.1218,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0636,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9929,
        "run_prevention": 1.0134,
        "strikeout": 0.9988
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800600",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800600",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 41.0,
            "k_percent": 23.0,
            "bb_percent": 18.0,
            "woba": 0.388,
            "xwoba": 0.372,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.7214,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.3611,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 45.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.069,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4957,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.7429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -1.3429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": -2.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0631
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800600",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.72623626373627,
              "release_spin_rate": 2092.4313186813188,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.72623626373627,
                "release_spin_rate": 2092.4313186813188,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7262,
              "release_spin_rate": 2092.4313,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0631,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4504,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3091,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0263,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9964,
          "walk_factor": 1.0792,
          "homer_factor": 1.0573,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "800600",
            "espn_id": 5007807,
            "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 686,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 686,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 680,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 246,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 205,
              "era_value": 8.027,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 510,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 306,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 12.1,
              "ip_rank": 567,
              "h_value": 15.0,
              "h_rank": 539,
              "er_value": 11.0,
              "er_rank": 472,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 587,
              "bb_value": 11.0,
              "bb_rank": 436,
              "k_value": 14.0,
              "k_rank": 520,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.216216,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 2.1081,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.3,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0118,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0118,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0356,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0258,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9984,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 61,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_MIA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_PHI@LAA

away

Andrew Painter

True

5.0

6.0

6/2

1/3

9/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.04332129963899,
      "WHIP": 1.483754512635379,
      "IP": 92.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.843,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2242,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0191,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.976,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.0412,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.356,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 327,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.622,
            "WHIP": 1.061,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40244,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69512,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36585,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95122,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10976
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 824.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2877,
            "WHIP": 1.4795,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69863,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06849,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41096,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20548
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 92.1,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 103.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 79.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 410.0,
            "Pitches": 1576.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2632,
            "R": 3.2632,
            "H": 5.4211,
            "BB": 1.7895,
            "SO": 4.1579,
            "HR": 0.8947,
            "BF": 21.5789,
            "Pitches": 82.9474
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0433,
            "WHIP": 1.4838,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67148,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36823,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8556,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18412
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.842,
        "predicted_H": 4.791,
        "predicted_BB": 1.969,
        "predicted_SO": 4.72,
        "predicted_HR": 0.808,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9305,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.303
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.842,
          "final": 2.9112,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.791,
          "final": 5.3206,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.969,
          "final": 1.5446,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.72,
          "final": 6.5947,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.808,
          "final": 0.8921,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9305,
          "final": 4.9305,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.303,
          "final": 1.303,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.287671232876712,
        "WHIP": 1.4794520547945205,
        "K9": 7.767123287671232,
        "HR9": 1.8493150684931505,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2155286976152369,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.3333,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.3333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5522,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 585.0,
        "run_differential": 23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5373,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3657,
        "offense_index": 1.0135,
        "defense_index": 1.0254,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 16.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.3881,
        "runs_scored": 548.0,
        "runs_allowed": 623.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5597,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0896,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6493,
        "offense_index": 0.9135,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2339
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4044,
        "offense_edge": 0.0135,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0865,
        "defense_strength": 0.0254,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0204,
        "run_prevention": 0.9634,
        "strikeout": 1.0191
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691725",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691725",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 19.3,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.356,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.306,
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            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.2036,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0196
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691725",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.20186596189707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2299.9389803815907,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.20186596189707,
                "release_spin_rate": 2299.9389803815907,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2019,
              "release_spin_rate": 2299.939,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0196,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1399,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2242,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0191,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.976,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 1.0412,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "691725",
            "espn_id": 4872683,
            "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 327,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 327,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 381,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 110,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 117,
              "era_value": 6.0433,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 229,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 92.1,
              "ip_rank": 126,
              "h_value": 103.0,
              "h_rank": 96,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 40,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 53,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 114,
              "k_value": 79.0,
              "k_rank": 137,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.7003613,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.4837,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.23,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0191,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0191,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0412,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_PHI@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_PHI@LAA

home

Reid Detmers

True

5.2

6.0

-2

5/8

3/0

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6241610738255035,
      "WHIP": 1.0604026845637584,
      "IP": 149.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.731,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3806,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9677,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0606,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 0.9998,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.273,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 29.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 32,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 0.8966,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65517,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24138,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13793
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 890.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1091,
            "WHIP": 1.0727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18182
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.0,
            "ER": 60.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 172.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 603.0,
            "Pitches": 2399.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3077,
            "R": 2.4231,
            "H": 4.3846,
            "BB": 1.6923,
            "SO": 6.6154,
            "HR": 0.6538,
            "BF": 23.1923,
            "Pitches": 92.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6242,
            "WHIP": 1.0604,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40268,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7651,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2953,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15436,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11409
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.827,
        "predicted_H": 4.246,
        "predicted_BB": 1.591,
        "predicted_SO": 6.555,
        "predicted_HR": 0.826,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.952,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0481
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.827,
          "final": 2.7356,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.246,
          "final": 4.9794,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.591,
          "final": 2.1802,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.555,
          "final": 6.7411,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.826,
          "final": 1.3169,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.952,
          "final": 2.952,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0481,
          "final": 1.0481,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 68,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.1090909090909093,
        "WHIP": 1.072727272727273,
        "K9": 11.127272727272729,
        "HR9": 1.6363636363636365,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8477702916376529,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 4,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.3881,
        "runs_scored": 548.0,
        "runs_allowed": 623.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5597,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0896,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6493,
        "offense_index": 0.9135,
        "defense_index": 0.9629,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2339
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5522,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 585.0,
        "run_differential": 23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5373,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3657,
        "offense_index": 1.0135,
        "defense_index": 1.0254,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1705
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4044,
        "offense_edge": -0.0865,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0135,
        "defense_strength": -0.0371,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0254,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9822,
        "run_prevention": 1.0261,
        "strikeout": 0.9868
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 576.0,
            "k_percent": 28.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.273,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.1888,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3708,
            "whiff_percent": 29.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4169,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7179,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5857,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1015
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.03966004092277,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.6453988776,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.03966004092277,
                "release_spin_rate": 2234.6453988776,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0397,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.6454,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1015,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.725,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3806,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9677,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0606,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 0.9998,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "672282",
            "espn_id": 4326697,
            "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 32,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 32,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 249,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 18,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 37,
              "era_value": 3.6241,
              "era_rank": 28.0,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 176,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 149.0,
              "ip_rank": 21,
              "h_value": 114.0,
              "h_rank": 75,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 56,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 53,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 49,
              "k_value": 172.0,
              "k_rank": 9,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.389262,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11,
              "whip_value": 1.0604,
              "whip_rank": 9.0,
              "war_value": 2.84,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9677,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9677,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9998,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0606,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_PHI@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_PIT@STL

away

Jared Jones

True

5.0

4.2

-1

2/7

0/1

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.764705882352941,
      "WHIP": 1.25,
      "IP": 68.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2577,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9781,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.06,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 1.015,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 31.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 206,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.9545,
            "WHIP": 1.7273,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77273,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22727
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 199.0,
            "Pitches": 789.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 19.9,
            "Pitches": 78.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3427,
            "WHIP": 1.1329,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48252,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75524,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37762,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17483,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14685
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 68.0,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 77.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 289.0,
            "Pitches": 1135.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4667,
            "H": 3.9333,
            "BB": 1.7333,
            "SO": 5.1333,
            "HR": 0.7333,
            "BF": 19.2667,
            "Pitches": 75.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86765,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38235,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16176
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.648,
        "predicted_H": 4.273,
        "predicted_BB": 2.004,
        "predicted_SO": 4.838,
        "predicted_HR": 0.788,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3311,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.404
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.648,
          "final": 2.3528,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.273,
          "final": 3.2374,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.004,
          "final": 1.0909,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.838,
          "final": 4.4562,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.788,
          "final": 0.8846,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3311,
          "final": 5.3311,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.404,
          "final": 1.404,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.3426573426573425,
        "WHIP": 1.132867132867133,
        "K9": 10.573426573426573,
        "HR9": 1.3216783216783217,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9880500119173732,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
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              "delta": 0.6667,
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              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
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              "delta": 0.6667,
              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.6667,
            "percent_delta": 0.1539,
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4815,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": 24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1778,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6889,
        "offense_index": 1.0906,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0062
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4963,
        "runs_scored": 600.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": -13.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0963,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5407,
        "offense_index": 0.996,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.1,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.085
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0912,
        "offense_edge": 0.0906,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.004,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0173,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0024,
        "run_prevention": 0.9996,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.5499,
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            "swing_percent": 47.9
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0436,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6007,
            "regression_edge": 0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8429,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2137
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.66750722649874,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.3321423171064,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.66750722649874,
                "release_spin_rate": 2505.3321423171064,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.6675,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.3321,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2137,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.5261,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2577,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9781,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.06,
          "walk_factor": 0.996,
          "homer_factor": 1.015,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683003",
            "espn_id": 4918156,
            "player_name": "Jared Jones",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 206,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 206,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 436,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 124,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 4.7647,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 294,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 127,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 68.0,
              "ip_rank": 172,
              "h_value": 59.0,
              "h_rank": 181,
              "er_value": 36.0,
              "er_rank": 152,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 135,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 187,
              "k_value": 77.0,
              "k_rank": 141,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.191176,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.25,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.75,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9781,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9781,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.015,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_PIT@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_PIT@STL

home

Quinn Mathews

True

4.1

5.2

-1

4/5

1/1

7/7

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 6.428571428571429,
      "WHIP": 1.7857142857142858,
      "IP": 14.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2213,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
      "walk_factor": 1.0126,
      "homer_factor": 0.9225,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 19.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.351,
      "xwoba": 0.275,
      "barrel_percent": 2.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 28.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 637,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 291.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3333,
            "R": 3.3333,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4286,
            "WHIP": 1.7857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 291.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3333,
            "R": 3.3333,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4286,
            "WHIP": 1.7857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 291.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3333,
            "R": 3.3333,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4286,
            "WHIP": 1.7857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.835,
        "predicted_H": 5.322,
        "predicted_BB": 2.04,
        "predicted_SO": 4.569,
        "predicted_HR": 0.579,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.2339,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5101
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6141,
      "form_weight": 0.3859,
      "form_reliability": 0.375,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.835,
          "final": 2.3223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.322,
          "final": 4.5102,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.04,
          "final": 1.4014,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.569,
          "final": 6.0618,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.579,
          "final": 0.8375,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.2339,
          "final": 5.2339,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5101,
          "final": 1.5101,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 14.0,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 13,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 6.428571428571429,
        "WHIP": 1.7857142857142858,
        "K9": 8.357142857142858,
        "HR9": 0.6428571428571429,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1093042224569867,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.375,
          "prior_weight": 0.625
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.18,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.18,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4963,
        "runs_scored": 600.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": -13.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0963,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5407,
        "offense_index": 0.996,
        "defense_index": 0.9827,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.1,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.085
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4815,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": 24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1778,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6889,
        "offense_index": 1.0906,
        "defense_index": 0.9517,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0062
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0912,
        "offense_edge": -0.004,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0906,
        "defense_strength": -0.0173,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0483,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9922,
        "run_prevention": 1.0208,
        "strikeout": 0.99
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687273",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687273",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 41.0,
            "k_percent": 19.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.351,
            "xwoba": 0.275,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 2.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 28.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6207,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.039,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.6264,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1929,
            "regression_edge": 2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 1.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.3571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": -0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1094
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687273",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.8989365165491,
              "release_spin_rate": 2078.2117200217035,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.8989365165491,
                "release_spin_rate": 2078.2117200217035,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.8989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2078.2117,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1094,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7813,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2213,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
          "walk_factor": 1.0126,
          "homer_factor": 0.9225,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.076,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687273",
            "espn_id": 4837405,
            "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 637,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 637,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 680,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 246,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 205,
              "era_value": 6.4285,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 510,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 306,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 14.0,
              "ip_rank": 550,
              "h_value": 18.0,
              "h_rank": 508,
              "er_value": 10.0,
              "er_rank": 503,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 587,
              "bb_value": 7.0,
              "bb_rank": 534,
              "k_value": 13.0,
              "k_rank": 534,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.357142,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.7857,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9915,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9915,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9651,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9979,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_PIT@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_SD@TB

away

Casey Mize

True

5.0

5/6

2/1

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4394904458598723,
      "WHIP": 1.089171974522293,
      "IP": 104.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.233,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1871,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9841,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0034,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.284,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 50,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 378.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 75.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.625,
            "WHIP": 1.2917,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.625,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.20833
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.47771,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9172,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24841,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "ERA": 4.2993630573248405,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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        {
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          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1269,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663554",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "663554",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.29,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663554",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0485,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
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              "k_rank": 97,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.16879,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.0891,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9841,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9841,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_SD@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_SD@TB

home

Shane McClanahan

True

5.1

5.2

2/3

1/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1024844720496896,
      "WHIP": 1.1180124223602486,
      "IP": 107.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.879,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0503,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0043,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.012,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0563,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.314,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 99,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 107.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.102,
      "season_WHIP": 1.118,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663556",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 89.0,
            "Pitches": 338.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 17.8,
            "Pitches": 67.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2188,
            "WHIP": 1.0781,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70312,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79688,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 724.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 72.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4225,
            "WHIP": 1.1408,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82394,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3169,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10563
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 107.1,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 84.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 99.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 443.0,
            "Pitches": 1678.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6818,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8182,
            "BB": 1.6364,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.3636,
            "BF": 20.1364,
            "Pitches": 76.2727
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1025,
            "WHIP": 1.118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34472,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3354,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92236,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07453
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.054,
        "predicted_H": 3.832,
        "predicted_BB": 1.679,
        "predicted_SO": 4.105,
        "predicted_HR": 0.497,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.865,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1519
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.2,
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          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.054,
          "final": 2.0309,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.832,
          "final": 3.0475,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.679,
          "final": 1.3882,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.105,
          "final": 4.4883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.497,
          "final": 0.7124,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.865,
          "final": 3.865,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1519,
          "final": 1.1519,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.4225352112676055,
        "WHIP": 1.1408450704225352,
        "K9": 7.605633802816901,
        "HR9": 0.9507042253521126,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8847357205749128,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663556",
      "player_name": "Shane McClanahan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
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          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.594,
        "runs_scored": 595.0,
        "runs_allowed": 548.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3534,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4737,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1203,
        "offense_index": 1.0011,
        "defense_index": 1.0845,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1234
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5373,
        "runs_scored": 569.0,
        "runs_allowed": 552.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1269,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2463,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1194,
        "offense_index": 0.9502,
        "defense_index": 1.0848,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.0,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0823
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0411,
        "offense_edge": 0.0011,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0498,
        "defense_strength": 0.0845,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0848,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0062,
        "run_prevention": 0.9815,
        "strikeout": 1.0052
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663556",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663556",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 421.0,
            "k_percent": 22.3,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.27,
            "xwoba": 0.314,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2835,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6169,
            "whiff_percent": 27.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0597,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1643,
            "regression_edge": -1.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0098
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663556",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.67791963059732,
              "release_spin_rate": 2098.2361334703396,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.67791963059732,
                "release_spin_rate": 2098.2361334703396,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6779,
              "release_spin_rate": 2098.2361,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0098,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0697,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0503,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0043,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.012,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0563,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.044,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663556",
            "espn_id": 41199,
            "player_name": "Shane McClanahan",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 99,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 99,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 338,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 75,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 117,
              "era_value": 3.1024,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 30,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 99,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 107.1,
              "ip_rank": 98,
              "h_value": 84.0,
              "h_rank": 127,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 147,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 191,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 95,
              "k_value": 99.0,
              "k_rank": 92,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.301242,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.118,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.61,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0563,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_SD@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_SEA@TOR

away

Emerson Hancock

True

5.2

5.0

-2

4/8

0/0

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3665835411471323,
      "WHIP": 1.1221945137157108,
      "IP": 133.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.569,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.059,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.995,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9971,
      "walk_factor": 0.934,
      "homer_factor": 1.0353,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 38,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676106",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 7.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1294,
            "WHIP": 1.5529,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45882,
            "H_per_IP": 1.34118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21176,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 857.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 85.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5,
            "WHIP": 1.2778,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38889,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27778,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92593,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12963
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 133.2,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 543.0,
            "Pitches": 2104.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0833,
            "R": 2.125,
            "H": 4.9167,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 5.2083,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 22.625,
            "Pitches": 87.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3666,
            "WHIP": 1.1222,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37406,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88279,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2394,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93516,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13466
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.406,
        "predicted_H": 6.146,
        "predicted_BB": 1.463,
        "predicted_SO": 5.311,
        "predicted_HR": 0.841,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8877,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.366
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.406,
          "final": 1.8115,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.146,
          "final": 5.2386,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.463,
          "final": 0.8444,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.311,
          "final": 6.0252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.841,
          "final": 0.4854,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8877,
          "final": 3.8877,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.366,
          "final": 1.366,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.5,
        "WHIP": 1.2777777777777777,
        "K9": 8.333333333333334,
        "HR9": 1.1666666666666667,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8968738269911882,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676106",
      "player_name": "Emerson Hancock",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4776,
        "runs_scored": 526.0,
        "runs_allowed": 583.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4254,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9254,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3507,
        "offense_index": 0.8784,
        "defense_index": 1.0271,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.3,
          "run_differential": -33.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0364
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4815,
        "runs_scored": 529.0,
        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
        "run_differential": -65.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4815,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9185,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
        "offense_index": 0.8769,
        "defense_index": 1.0156,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.11
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0736,
        "offense_edge": -0.1216,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1231,
        "defense_strength": 0.0271,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0156,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0087,
        "run_prevention": 0.9739,
        "strikeout": 1.0121
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676106",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676106",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 491.0,
            "k_percent": 23.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9862,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3663,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 51.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0778,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1543,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0128
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676106",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.08052790026855,
              "release_spin_rate": 2358.8930894925725,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.08052790026855,
                "release_spin_rate": 2358.8930894925725,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0805,
              "release_spin_rate": 2358.8931,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0128,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0913,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.059,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.995,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9971,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676106",
            "espn_id": 4297897,
            "player_name": "Emerson Hancock",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 38,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 38,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 304,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 55,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 27,
              "era_value": 3.3665,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 74,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 70,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 133.2,
              "ip_rank": 54,
              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 65,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 87,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 40,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 125,
              "k_value": 125.0,
              "k_rank": 50,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.416459,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.1221,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.7,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.995,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.995,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0353,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9971,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_SEA@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_SEA@TOR

home

Dylan Cease

True

6.0

4/4

0/1

8/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.0600461893764432,
      "IP": 144.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.014,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9155,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1354,
      "walk_factor": 1.038,
      "homer_factor": 0.8779,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 36.1,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.246,
      "xwoba": 0.255,
      "barrel_percent": 4.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.3,
      "whiff_percent": 34.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 4,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656302",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
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            "Pitches": 519.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 103.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0323,
            "WHIP": 0.9677,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22581,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45161,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51613,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35484,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 65.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 1067.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.0,
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            "SO": 9.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 106.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9188,
            "WHIP": 0.8985,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2132,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45685,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44162,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.38579,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06091
          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 144.1,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 209.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 579.0,
            "Pitches": 2458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.5833,
            "R": 1.7917,
            "H": 3.7083,
            "BB": 2.6667,
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            "Pitches": 102.4167
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.06,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.61663,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44342,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44804,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06236
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.743,
        "predicted_H": 3.606,
        "predicted_BB": 2.888,
        "predicted_SO": 8.264,
        "predicted_HR": 0.489,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4836,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0279
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.743,
          "final": 1.4288,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.606,
          "final": 3.7726,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.888,
          "final": 1.6668,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 8.264,
          "final": 7.3067,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.489,
          "final": 0.7051,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4836,
          "final": 2.4836,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0279,
          "final": 1.0279,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 65.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 30,
        "BB": 29,
        "SO": 91,
        "HR": 4,
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        "K9": 12.472081218274111,
        "HR9": 0.5482233502538071,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7095042556431904,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656302",
      "player_name": "Dylan Cease",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4815,
        "runs_scored": 529.0,
        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
        "run_differential": -65.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4815,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9185,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
        "offense_index": 0.8769,
        "defense_index": 1.0156,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.11
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4776,
        "runs_scored": 526.0,
        "runs_allowed": 583.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4254,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9254,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3507,
        "offense_index": 0.8784,
        "defense_index": 1.0271,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.3,
          "run_differential": -33.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0364
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0736,
        "offense_edge": -0.1231,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1216,
        "defense_strength": 0.0156,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0271,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0024,
        "run_prevention": 0.9827,
        "strikeout": 1.0075
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 549.0,
            "k_percent": 36.1,
            "bb_percent": 11.1,
            "woba": 0.246,
            "xwoba": 0.255,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 73.5718,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1717,
            "whiff_percent": 34.8,
            "swing_percent": 45.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.2131,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2914,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7857,
            "whiff_edge": 1.3714,
            "bb_edge": -0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0624
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 105,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 105,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.9657064009816,
              "release_spin_rate": 2491.7307751389935,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 105,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.9657064009816,
                "release_spin_rate": 2491.7307751389935,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9657,
              "release_spin_rate": 2491.7308,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0624,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4454,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.9944,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9155,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1354,
          "walk_factor": 1.038,
          "homer_factor": 0.8779,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656302",
            "espn_id": 34943,
            "player_name": "Dylan Cease",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 4,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 4,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 304,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 55,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 21,
              "era_value": 2.3695,
              "era_rank": 4.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 49,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 127,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 144.1,
              "ip_rank": 33,
              "h_value": 89.0,
              "h_rank": 115,
              "er_value": 38.0,
              "er_rank": 143,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 163,
              "bb_value": 64.0,
              "bb_rank": 7,
              "k_value": 209.0,
              "k_rank": 2,
              "k_per_9_value": 13.032332,
              "k_per_9_rank": 1,
              "whip_value": 1.06,
              "whip_rank": 9.0,
              "war_value": 5.48,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9155,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9155,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.038,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8779,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.1354,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_SEA@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_TEX@MIL

away

Cody Bradford

True

5.0

5.2

4/9

4/2

5/0

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0483870967741935,
      "WHIP": 1.4032258064516128,
      "IP": 20.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.167,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2734,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0232,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9751,
      "walk_factor": 0.9586,
      "homer_factor": 1.0595,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.6,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.349,
      "barrel_percent": 11.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 247,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 306.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 6.25,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 76.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0484,
            "WHIP": 1.4032,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20968,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62903,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04839
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 306.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 6.25,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 76.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0484,
            "WHIP": 1.4032,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20968,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62903,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04839
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 306.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 6.25,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 76.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0484,
            "WHIP": 1.4032,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20968,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.04839
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "cold_streak": true,
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      },
      "pitching": {
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 4,
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      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8982097658352289,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4925,
        "runs_scored": 543.0,
        "runs_allowed": 590.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3507,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0522,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.403,
        "offense_index": 0.9081,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0496
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6194,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 495.0,
        "run_differential": 173.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.291,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9851,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.694,
        "offense_index": 1.1171,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 6.6,
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          "run_differential": 41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3306
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3802,
        "offense_edge": -0.0919,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1171,
        "defense_strength": 0.0135,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.208,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9805,
        "run_prevention": 1.0364,
        "strikeout": 0.9792
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 63.0,
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            "woba": 0.343,
            "xwoba": 0.349,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.7365,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9527,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
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            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6508,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8489,
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            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4,
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            "bb_edge": 1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.26618224573781,
              "release_spin_rate": 1896.6627748383305,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.26618224573781,
                "release_spin_rate": 1896.6627748383305,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.2662,
              "release_spin_rate": 1896.6628,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2734,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0232,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9751,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "674003",
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            "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 247,
            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 247,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 635,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 222,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 174,
              "era_value": 3.0483,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 510,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 306,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 20.2,
              "ip_rank": 480,
              "h_value": 25.0,
              "h_rank": 438,
              "er_value": 7.0,
              "er_rank": 570,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 587,
              "bb_value": 4.0,
              "bb_rank": 618,
              "k_value": 13.0,
              "k_rank": 534,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.66129,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.4032,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.51,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0104,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0104,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9814,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0268,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9888,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_TEX@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260828

20260828_TEX@MIL

home

Logan Henderson

True

6.0

7.0

-1

2/1

2/0

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.5961538461538463,
      "WHIP": 0.8942307692307693,
      "IP": 69.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6538,
      "sample_weight": 0.956,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9444,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0535,
      "walk_factor": 0.9254,
      "homer_factor": 0.9664,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.257,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 54,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "report_date": "20260828",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.6129,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.03226,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16129
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.24852,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67456,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21302,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11834,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.13942,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 10.06508875739645,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7449959505940812,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.6194,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.291,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
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          "run_differential": 41.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 68,
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        "runs_allowed": 590.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3507,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -3.0
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1171,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0188
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701656",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701656",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.257,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.5429,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701656",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.19496107158342,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 88,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.195,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6538,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 833,
            "metrics": {
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              "era_value": 2.5961,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 49,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 306,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 337,
              "ip_value": 69.1,
              "ip_rank": 170,
              "h_value": 48.0,
              "h_rank": 236,
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": 291,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 146,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 371,
              "k_value": 79.0,
              "k_rank": 137,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.254807,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 0.8942,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.28,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9468,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9468,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9287,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9679,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0511,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260828_TEX@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}