Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260825 · dates 20260825 · generated 2026-08-27T03:12:00.153414+00:00

5-10

Winner picks · 33.3%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

16/30

Starter ER within ±1

19/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260825	15	15	0	5	10	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 13
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.3355.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	6	53.6%	33.3%	20.2%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	6	56.8%	16.7%	40.1%	overconfident
0.60-0.65	2	62.5%	100.0%	-37.5%	underconfident
0.65-0.70	1	66.4%	0.0%	66.4%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.5107	4.3486	3.1923	26.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.5667	4.3333	3.1333	26.7%	0.056	-0.059
enhanced_prediction	15	2.6	4.1333	3.2	33.3%	0.0893	0.0077
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.7	4.2	3.4	26.7%	0.1893	0.2077
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.7333	4.2667	3.3333	33.3%	0.2226	0.141
capped_target	15	2.7333	4.2667	3.3333	33.3%	0.2226	0.141
simulation_result	15	2.7333	4.2667	3.3333	33.3%	0.2226	0.141
published_final	15	2.7333	4.2667	3.3333	33.3%	0.2226	0.141

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.7333,
  "total_run_mae": 4.2667,
  "margin_mae": 3.3333,
  "winner_hits": 5,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.3333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2226,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.141
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=10

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	10
enhanced_prediction	2.0	10
variance_applied	0.0415	10
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	10
capped_target	0.0	10
simulation_result	0.0	10

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "top_stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "games": 10
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 10
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0415,
      "games": 10
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 10
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 10
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 10
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	1.0	5
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	5
variance_applied	0.9264	5
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	5
capped_target	0.0	5
simulation_result	0.0	5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.9264,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	6	2	4	0.3333
[0.550, 0.600)	6	1	5	0.1667
[0.600, 1.010)	3	2	1	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 6,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 5,
    "accuracy": 0.1667
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.1667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260825	15	0.5688	7.7333	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260825",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5688,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.7333,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v10	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	5	10	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 10,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260825_BAL@STL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSTL

Published scoreBAL 3 - 5 STL

Final confidence57.2%

Calibrationraw 58.1% → blended 57.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.8% · weight 50.0% · n=270

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.209

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6968534848334205-4.504791072356753	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.144378,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.572189,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.572189,
    "away_win_probability": 0.427811
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.144378,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 STL",
    "confidence": 0.5721887999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.580782,
    "sample_size": 270,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5778,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.579291,
    "published_confidence": 0.572189,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2807,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.076,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.209
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032860377848597605
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03140126748365456
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030996004646740873
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029790963411360293
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02961967866959412
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05093610227357938,
      "1": 0.08634895092614667,
      "2": 0.12517960647360643,
      "3": 0.15518697150387925,
      "4": 0.1645212852080669,
      "5": 0.14915371973523014,
      "6": 0.11563551621730832,
      "7": 0.07666436766802977,
      "8": 0.043465134914775994,
      "9": 0.021073354145034345,
      "10": 0.008737183541162251,
      "11": 0.0030978073931803535
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0889394117955931,
      "1": 0.145749256950052,
      "2": 0.19086446743922514,
      "3": 0.19973329169559867,
      "4": 0.16702538176602322,
      "5": 0.1116146304831587,
      "6": 0.05960276640693037,
      "7": 0.02543421560298682,
      "8": 0.00867315121580738,
      "9": 0.002363426644624637
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0179,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.076,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.209,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5722,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5984,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5722,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.209,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.076,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0179,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "away": {
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_BOS@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 4 - 2 MIA

Final confidence60.4%

Calibrationraw 69.7% → blended 63.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=280

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.569

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.77853818323145-3.087748012710602	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.207494,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.603747,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.396253,
    "away_win_probability": 0.603747
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.207494,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.603747,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.697098,
    "sample_size": 280,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5679,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.632499,
    "published_confidence": 0.603747,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6901,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.344,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.569
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.033064299156963524
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03302892262253619
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03067505386035127
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030642233654672644
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03063400692123855
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09857913818434327,
      "1": 0.16011979352833358,
      "2": 0.20417731135164985,
      "3": 0.2043960010669294,
      "4": 0.16063484690015817,
      "5": 0.09910819976583372,
      "6": 0.04800449067957458,
      "7": 0.018253939207821434,
      "8": 0.005449213053553245,
      "9": 0.0012770662618027298
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0480715189780223,
      "1": 0.08170184625421817,
      "2": 0.11935658726587868,
      "3": 0.14987576450288503,
      "4": 0.1617658808605391,
      "5": 0.15007658515934827,
      "6": 0.11967665671364068,
      "7": 0.0820307068836456,
      "8": 0.04832968411020537,
      "9": 0.024474958033644016,
      "10": 0.010653699720382315,
      "11": 0.003986111517590527
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 MIA",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 MIA",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
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      "thresholds": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
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      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
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    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.77853818323145,
      "home_runs": 3.087748012710602,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_CHC@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 5 - 3 ARI

Final confidence66.4%

Calibrationraw 73.4% → blended 64.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=197

H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7546

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.7503794247687265-4.420016629851618	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.327104,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.663552,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.336448,
    "away_win_probability": 0.663552
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.327104,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.663552,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.73367,
    "sample_size": 197,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5533,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.643485,
    "published_confidence": 0.663552,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0875,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0875,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9886,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.32,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7546
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029778872184655577
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02938392862647774
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02879497231057155
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02841307776629699
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.026454790198915067
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09152277517411503,
      "1": 0.14962856746299005,
      "2": 0.19455973993249695,
      "3": 0.2012076818564114,
      "4": 0.16549666989531098,
      "5": 0.10826475131393823,
      "6": 0.05632977640265657,
      "7": 0.023309990334231933,
      "8": 0.007671835479808,
      "9": 0.0020082121480407607
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03708930277790558,
      "1": 0.06365848396316491,
      "2": 0.09577708270582098,
      "3": 0.12631781605102121,
      "4": 0.14603780708257005,
      "5": 0.14800067228997144,
      "6": 0.1314800208164721,
      "7": 0.10238905410706346,
      "8": 0.06989481961439911,
      "9": 0.04182482539617177,
      "10": 0.02193920951456131,
      "11": 0.010088010028284914,
      "12": 0.004066190540960609,
      "13": 0.0014367051116326952
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 ARI",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 ARI",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0688,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.67,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7546,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.6636,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6328,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6636,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7546,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.32,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0688,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
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        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
      {
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        "old_value": 10,
        "new_value": 12,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
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          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-26T01:35:33.013443+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-26T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.336448,
      "confidence": 0.663552,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.336448,
      "confidence": 0.663552,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.73367,
        "sample_size": 197,
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        "score_gap": 1.9546,
        "calibration_sample_size": 197,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5533,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5488,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7546,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.342897,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.33,
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          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.663552
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": -14.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
        "home_average_margin": -3.5,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0875,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0875,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 63,
          "win_pct": 0.5227272727272727,
          "runs_scored": 598,
          "runs_allowed": 596,
          "run_differential": 2,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.015151515151515152,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 132,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 56,
          "win_pct": 0.5757575757575758,
          "runs_scored": 691,
          "runs_allowed": 569,
          "run_differential": 122,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9242424242424242,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.9091,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.053,
        "quality_edge": -0.7546,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.9886,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.32,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.7546
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3169,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3169,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7546,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.9886,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.857,
          "home_runs": 2.855,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4148
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "10": 0.02193920951456131,
          "11": 0.010088010028284914,
          "12": 0.004066190540960609,
          "13": 0.0014367051116326952
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.7503794247687265,
      "home_runs": 4.420016629851618,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_CIN@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSF

Published scoreCIN 4 - 5 SF

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 56.0% → blended 53.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=305

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0841

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.422456394387741-4.279185419453299	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.067332,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533666,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.533666,
    "away_win_probability": 0.466334
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.067332,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 SF",
    "confidence": 0.53366561,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.559597,
    "sample_size": 305,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.518,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.538799,
    "published_confidence": 0.533666,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0125,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0798,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.092,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0841
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0325381643082063
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0314433577718217
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030822939782744904
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029785845138280666
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02844394425360939
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06589620224116408,
      "1": 0.11024133446373151,
      "2": 0.15359572752977102,
      "3": 0.1782232696600713,
      "4": 0.17222661912037038,
      "5": 0.13860750417873666,
      "6": 0.09290173153253109,
      "7": 0.05185748752095493,
      "8": 0.024107364381988475,
      "9": 0.009333372323605744,
      "10": 0.0030093870470749707
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06925518541646128,
      "1": 0.11553138073133706,
      "2": 0.15959725297297642,
      "3": 0.18256967437679142,
      "4": 0.17294565317724278,
      "5": 0.135665194475816,
      "6": 0.08812619383887378,
      "7": 0.04740447770301126,
      "8": 0.021115992512734848,
      "9": 0.007788994794755175
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0472,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.092,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SF",
      "model_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "SF",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "SF",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0841,
      "winner": "SF",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SF",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6059,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0841,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.092,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0472,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-26T01:45:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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        "away": {
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.422456394387741,
      "home_runs": 4.279185419453299,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_CLE@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 4 - 2 LAA

Final confidence64.6%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 62.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=280

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5915

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.839112073479417-3.944914330003079	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.292494,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.646247,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.353753,
    "away_win_probability": 0.646247
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.292494,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.646247,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 280,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5679,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6202,
    "published_confidence": 0.646247,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0625,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0625,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6515,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5915
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03781306446740205
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03659840889531176
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.034805920169492285
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03368786202024998
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03316426463121172
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11642317933595572,
      "1": 0.1859553704650805,
      "2": 0.2254753049748409,
      "3": 0.20754402150906728,
      "4": 0.14502486149806243,
      "5": 0.07692999039128794,
      "6": 0.03097917757701031,
      "7": 0.009470329226792177,
      "8": 0.00219776502190264
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0550702656392126,
      "1": 0.09301443697728973,
      "2": 0.13336208554468537,
      "3": 0.16231670647654964,
      "4": 0.1677037956401537,
      "5": 0.1470860174018271,
      "6": 0.10950872241616987,
      "7": 0.06921095826608806,
      "8": 0.037132128014272486,
      "9": 0.01691116949505472,
      "10": 0.006538020414665777,
      "11": 0.0021456937140307475
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0676,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.83,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
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      "margin_widening_capped": false,
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    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_COL@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickWAS

Published scoreCOL 4 - 5 WAS

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 63.9% → blended 60.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.8% · weight 50.0% · n=263

H2H base featurehome net 21.0 · absolute 21.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.0039

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.55357967676087-4.605245163346889	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.639039,
    "sample_size": 263,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5779,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.60847,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 21.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 21.0,
    "home_average_margin": 5.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1312,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1312,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3916,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.284,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0039
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02460625324587026
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024210891088181957
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023598755093856675
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023219580961190586
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02263319165684961
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.033658564355666463,
      "1": 0.057953053377157136,
      "2": 0.08802397419201242,
      "3": 0.11794228514472889,
      "4": 0.13940617742652486,
      "5": 0.1453578246883359,
      "6": 0.1337022533305028,
      "7": 0.10848831242434574,
      "8": 0.07765529896679016,
      "9": 0.0490346583666849,
      "10": 0.02731361144862953,
      "11": 0.013421436952842987,
      "12": 0.005817854016980384,
      "13": 0.002224695308797785
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057718186726346925,
      "1": 0.0972579611901512,
      "2": 0.13846660837271582,
      "3": 0.16656063160062365,
      "4": 0.16928055506216422,
      "5": 0.14536143469424645,
      "6": 0.10546266414837463,
      "7": 0.06464808821982732,
      "8": 0.03348266716131713,
      "9": 0.014651828143091593,
      "10": 0.005417151696457101,
      "11": 0.0016922229846838084
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0203,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.459,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0039,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6245,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0039,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.284,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0203,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "default-v1",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 10,
        "new_value": 12,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-25T22:35:26.137445+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-25T22:45:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.592896,
      "confidence": 0.592896,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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        "adaptive_configuration": {
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.592896,
      "confidence": 0.592896,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 4,
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.639039,
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        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5779,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.6008,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6008,
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        "score_gap": 1.2373,
        "calibration_sample_size": 263,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5779,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.573,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.0039,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
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          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.592896
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": 21.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 21.0,
        "home_average_margin": 5.25,
        "home_run_delta": 0.1312,
        "away_run_delta": -0.1312,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 10.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 133,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.46616541353383456,
          "runs_scored": 695,
          "runs_allowed": 675,
          "run_differential": 20,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.15037593984962405,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 131,
          "wins": 50,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.3816793893129771,
          "runs_scored": 620,
          "runs_allowed": 766,
          "run_differential": -146,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.1145038167938932,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.2649,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0845,
        "quality_edge": 1.0039,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.3916,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.3916,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.284,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.0039
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.4216,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.4216,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.0039,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.3916,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.251,
          "home_runs": 4.538,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6094
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "8": 0.07765529896679016,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "10": 0.005417151696457101,
          "11": 0.0016922229846838084
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.55357967676087,
      "home_runs": 4.605245163346889,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_HOU@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreHOU 3 - 5 NYY

Final confidence57.1%

Calibrationraw 64.0% → blended 61.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.7% · weight 50.0% · n=230

H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9617

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.449537919646718-5.2025632732270335	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.141092,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.570546,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.570546,
    "away_win_probability": 0.429454
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.141092,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5705457500000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.639535,
    "sample_size": 230,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.587,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.613268,
    "published_confidence": 0.570546,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0682,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0682,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2147,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.492,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9617
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03292392560440035
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03152099579339247
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03102951112499328
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029707304693678927
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029283576978819593
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05331936068530098,
      "1": 0.09019742213485886,
      "2": 0.12992841715155184,
      "3": 0.15937309261396893,
      "4": 0.1664664364970808,
      "5": 0.14806049455112763,
      "6": 0.11213793096704103,
      "7": 0.07232138125320732,
      "8": 0.03971748274796032,
      "9": 0.018573662479866367,
      "10": 0.007396294806480377,
      "11": 0.0025080241115556837
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08590300878474895,
      "1": 0.14116360236871303,
      "2": 0.18640100537946833,
      "3": 0.19778116416264915,
      "4": 0.16862919542877372,
      "5": 0.1155292004001901,
      "6": 0.06360070470861112,
      "7": 0.028134762187374398,
      "8": 0.01000082274775195,
      "9": 0.0028565338317191207
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0307,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.6087,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9617,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5705,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.649,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5705,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9617,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.492,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0307,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
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    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260825_KC@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickKC

Published scoreKC 4 - 3 TOR

Final confidence58.8%

Calibrationraw 71.6% → blended 64.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=280

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0444

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.664478159176429-4.00088790763632	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.17637,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.588185,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.411815,
    "away_win_probability": 0.588185
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.17637,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.58818495,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.715792,
    "sample_size": 280,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5679,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.641846,
    "published_confidence": 0.588185,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3409,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.76,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0444
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03280441192792689
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03250876290391831
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030606332337006936
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030330493455828427
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03025999390577589
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09685491322842547,
      "1": 0.15757054627037012,
      "2": 0.2018913163138783,
      "3": 0.20372740496481895,
      "4": 0.16190881030941923,
      "5": 0.10133995910833614,
      "6": 0.04995514023692455,
      "7": 0.01939406536297428,
      "8": 0.005929891432322624,
      "9": 0.001427952772530246
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04737211731917978,
      "1": 0.08056369549533045,
      "2": 0.11791568408703564,
      "3": 0.14853177907509005,
      "4": 0.1610211053029011,
      "5": 0.15023178812046542,
      "6": 0.12063032054466645,
      "7": 0.0833617339930649,
      "8": 0.04957841176038614,
      "9": 0.025376638490531976,
      "10": 0.011178697087947395,
      "11": 0.004238028723400762
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0116,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.76,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "KC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
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    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6004,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5882,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.76,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0116,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c7e288f75d707709",
      "config_hash": "sha256:094c7e5cc53db7146b4d8767bb156c4be84dcaa677cf97909e0fcc95b20e9325",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
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        "parameter": "confidence.sparse_sample_max",
        "old_value": 10,
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        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-25T23:07:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
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    },
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    },
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        "home": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2727,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0455,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
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    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
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    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260825_LAD@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 4 - 3 ATL

Final confidence55.5%

Calibrationraw 64.3% → blended 59.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=359

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5034

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.3644085142610205-3.46100581609176	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.109018,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554509,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.445491,
    "away_win_probability": 0.554509
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.109018,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5545090125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.643361,
    "sample_size": 359,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5487,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.59603,
    "published_confidence": 0.554509,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.667,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0545,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0545,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3588,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.772,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5034
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03277413624496572
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031883410207923985
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030329283434524876
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02950500290313179
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02866714816800411
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08187947427330511,
      "1": 0.13504418494939824,
      "2": 0.1802855262204993,
      "3": 0.19481839760908765,
      "4": 0.17040534122301154,
      "5": 0.12064812332428403,
      "6": 0.0691420210074287,
      "7": 0.032073599348937706,
      "8": 0.012043076948380206,
      "9": 0.003660255095667512
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05589002052989666,
      "1": 0.09433031626036734,
      "2": 0.13495370146229044,
      "3": 0.16365708064132403,
      "4": 0.16822916442793343,
      "5": 0.14658322239730162,
      "6": 0.1082639156627012,
      "7": 0.06777970669056961,
      "8": 0.03596931180997597,
      "9": 0.016180094771960498,
      "10": 0.0061694504761495685,
      "11": 0.0019940148695295904
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.014,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.6553,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5034,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5545,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.557,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5545,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5034,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.772,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.014,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c7e288f75d707709",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
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    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.sparse_sample_max",
        "old_value": 10,
        "new_value": 12,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
        ],
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-25T22:38:09.067450+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-25T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.424555,
      "confidence": 0.575445,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.424555,
      "confidence": 0.575445,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-25T06:01:43.820174+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.643361,
        "sample_size": 359,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5487,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.59603
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
        "final_confidence": 0.5659,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5659,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.968966,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.8,
        "calibration_sample_size": 359,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5487,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5464,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5034,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.43411,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.968966,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.424555,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.575445
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": 8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.667,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0545,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0545,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 131,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 55,
          "win_pct": 0.5801526717557252,
          "runs_scored": 614,
          "runs_allowed": 504,
          "run_differential": 110,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8396946564885496,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 131,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 51,
          "win_pct": 0.6106870229007634,
          "runs_scored": 653,
          "runs_allowed": 502,
          "run_differential": 151,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.1526717557251909,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.313,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0305,
        "quality_edge": -0.5034,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.3588,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.3588,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.772,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.5034
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2114,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2114,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.5034,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.3588,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 7.403,
          "home_runs": 1.291,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.031883410207923985
          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02866714816800411
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.13504418494939824,
          "2": 0.1802855262204993,
          "3": 0.19481839760908765,
          "4": 0.17040534122301154,
          "5": 0.12064812332428403,
          "6": 0.0691420210074287,
          "7": 0.032073599348937706,
          "8": 0.012043076948380206,
          "9": 0.003660255095667512
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05589002052989666,
          "1": 0.09433031626036734,
          "2": 0.13495370146229044,
          "3": 0.16365708064132403,
          "4": 0.16822916442793343,
          "5": 0.14658322239730162,
          "6": 0.1082639156627012,
          "7": 0.06777970669056961,
          "8": 0.03596931180997597,
          "9": 0.016180094771960498,
          "10": 0.0061694504761495685,
          "11": 0.0019940148695295904
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.3644085142610205,
      "home_runs": 3.46100581609176,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_MIL@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 5 - 3 NYM

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 67.0% → blended 61.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=281

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.3361

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.082091925925116-3.5152077798425205	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.669577,
    "sample_size": 281,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5694,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.619489,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0136,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0136,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.7863,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.5,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.3361
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03082340974520707
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029753911023117585
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029028053855695783
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.028020849696258527
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0276897045682477
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08573796979043784,
      "1": 0.1409135541617035,
      "2": 0.186154669845856,
      "3": 0.19766814865257276,
      "4": 0.16871008610621105,
      "5": 0.11574093659694924,
      "6": 0.06382260562878538,
      "7": 0.028288092412494567,
      "8": 0.010078000751851035,
      "9": 0.0028859360531383023
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.043181795184233,
      "1": 0.07371569790482344,
      "2": 0.10912400404280921,
      "3": 0.140081772187364,
      "4": 0.15593513651702776,
      "5": 0.15052455960122293,
      "6": 0.12600035498046247,
      "7": 0.09146126316018442,
      "8": 0.05757098294435122,
      "9": 0.03142469830555025,
      "10": 0.014874405344475058,
      "11": 0.006105329827496271
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 NYM",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 NYM",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0793,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.6167,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.3361,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6661,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.3361,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.5,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0793,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c7e288f75d707709",
      "config_hash": "sha256:094c7e5cc53db7146b4d8767bb156c4be84dcaa677cf97909e0fcc95b20e9325",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.sparse_sample_max",
        "old_value": 10,
        "new_value": 12,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
        ],
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-25T22:38:09.658373+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-25T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.397165,
      "confidence": 0.602835,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.5344,
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.5612,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 3.5152077798425205,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_MIN@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 4 - 3 OAK

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 61.9% → blended 58.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=438

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7931

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.962252414944236-4.764311747203395	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.097314,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548657,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.451343,
    "away_win_probability": 0.548657
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.097314,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.548657485,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.619243,
    "sample_size": 438,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5411,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.580171,
    "published_confidence": 0.548657,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0375,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0375,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2008,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.036,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7931
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032594095305745086
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032293030557376416
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029693025800994824
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029418757616612817
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02914296172758954
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07840990636671027,
      "1": 0.1297283372988025,
      "2": 0.17482721845621943,
      "3": 0.19190819617344007,
      "4": 0.1715885396980943,
      "5": 0.12496641539773136,
      "6": 0.07413249656928082,
      "7": 0.035820712436149,
      "8": 0.014098408555762533,
      "9": 0.004519769047809475
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058832681255455516,
      "1": 0.09903800810813103,
      "2": 0.1405834218418469,
      "3": 0.16827332652426727,
      "4": 0.16984212220038614,
      "5": 0.14455212906650405,
      "6": 0.10374150279433511,
      "7": 0.06278118870585511,
      "8": 0.03203726925903829,
      "9": 0.013785750224181648,
      "10": 0.005002121968071948,
      "11": 0.001530478051927054
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0915,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.211,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
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    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_PHI@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 5 - 3 SEA

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 83.2% → blended 70.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.4% · weight 50.0% · n=101

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7925

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.244231857771786-4.082537864264773	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.831998,
    "sample_size": 101,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5743,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.703149,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 7.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0583,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0583,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6742,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.012,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7925
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02755266752336056
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.026980162915982674
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02641497345050305
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.025866108481571976
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025105482877434346
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08965082723184853,
      "1": 0.14681959353848636,
      "2": 0.19189144447705392,
      "3": 0.20015621746358336,
      "4": 0.16661896667158402,
      "5": 0.11069338461103469,
      "6": 0.05868954943255939,
      "7": 0.024833718986872668,
      "8": 0.008386188653374581,
      "9": 0.002260108933602497
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027648886022510595,
      "1": 0.04787726539666624,
      "2": 0.07397191790763638,
      "3": 0.10197419008295869,
      "4": 0.12542944303991987,
      "5": 0.13765581640437186,
      "6": 0.13479552750286897,
      "7": 0.11777205205390266,
      "8": 0.0918110269854288,
      "9": 0.06386064372887067,
      "10": 0.03963305793550705,
      "11": 0.021946623625288212,
      "12": 0.01084335541253448,
      "13": 0.004780193901535711
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0015,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.662,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7925,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6633,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7925,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.012,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0015,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c7e288f75d707709",
      "config_hash": "sha256:094c7e5cc53db7146b4d8767bb156c4be84dcaa677cf97909e0fcc95b20e9325",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
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    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.sparse_sample_max",
        "old_value": 10,
        "new_value": 12,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
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          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-26T01:35:32.078730+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-26T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.314257,
      "confidence": 0.685743,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
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        "adaptive_configuration": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.314257,
      "confidence": 0.685743,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.831998,
        "sample_size": 101,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5743,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.703149
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.7015,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.7015,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.901681,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.6289,
        "calibration_sample_size": 101,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5743,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.563,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7925,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.298515,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.33,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.901681,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.314257,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.685743
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
        "sample_weight": 0.0167,
        "home_net_margin": 7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": 7.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0583,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0583,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "SEA",
          "games": 132,
          "wins": 63,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.4772727272727273,
          "runs_scored": 522,
          "runs_allowed": 576,
          "run_differential": -54,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4090909090909091,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 132,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.553030303030303,
          "runs_scored": 601,
          "runs_allowed": 581,
          "run_differential": 20,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.15151515151515152,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5606,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0758,
        "quality_edge": -0.7925,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.6742,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6742,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.012,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.7925
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3328,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3328,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7925,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6742,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.538,
          "home_runs": 3.807,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2679
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02755266752336056
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.026980162915982674
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02641497345050305
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.025866108481571976
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.025105482877434346
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08965082723184853,
          "1": 0.14681959353848636,
          "2": 0.19189144447705392,
          "3": 0.20015621746358336,
          "4": 0.16661896667158402,
          "5": 0.11069338461103469,
          "6": 0.05868954943255939,
          "7": 0.024833718986872668,
          "8": 0.008386188653374581,
          "9": 0.002260108933602497
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.027648886022510595,
          "1": 0.04787726539666624,
          "2": 0.07397191790763638,
          "3": 0.10197419008295869,
          "4": 0.12542944303991987,
          "5": 0.13765581640437186,
          "6": 0.13479552750286897,
          "7": 0.11777205205390266,
          "8": 0.0918110269854288,
          "9": 0.06386064372887067,
          "10": 0.03963305793550705,
          "11": 0.021946623625288212,
          "12": 0.01084335541253448,
          "13": 0.004780193901535711
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.244231857771786,
      "home_runs": 4.082537864264773,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_PIT@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 5 - 4 SD

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 55.1% → blended 53.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=305

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0987

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.709893573803723-3.741546405354732	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.067332,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533666,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.466334,
    "away_win_probability": 0.533666
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.067332,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD",
    "confidence": 0.53366561,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.550942,
    "sample_size": 305,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.518,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.534471,
    "published_confidence": 0.533666,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0032,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.276,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0987
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02634715615469837
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024663110522047796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024541366552837222
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024334682620827656
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024121988408391297
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049713698875496475,
      "1": 0.08436874435829485,
      "2": 0.12271016966497374,
      "3": 0.15295827959421956,
      "4": 0.16340257138369668,
      "5": 0.14960229140768105,
      "6": 0.11738458454287136,
      "7": 0.07893640647860073,
      "8": 0.04549221663831857,
      "9": 0.022469339609620418,
      "10": 0.009511236502592639,
      "11": 0.003450460943633879
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04757559728938392,
      "1": 0.0808949656883757,
      "2": 0.1183356712585293,
      "3": 0.14892472263294887,
      "4": 0.16124076831588421,
      "5": 0.15018959827266104,
      "6": 0.12035434955569002,
      "7": 0.0829737392712572,
      "8": 0.04921261835599746,
      "9": 0.02511130135586746,
      "10": 0.011023484743897485,
      "11": 0.004163183259507422
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0226,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.276,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0987,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5111,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0987,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.276,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0226,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c7e288f75d707709",
      "config_hash": "sha256:094c7e5cc53db7146b4d8767bb156c4be84dcaa677cf97909e0fcc95b20e9325",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.sparse_sample_max",
        "old_value": 10,
        "new_value": 12,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
        ],
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-26T01:35:32.628118+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-26T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0819,
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.709893573803723,
      "home_runs": 3.741546405354732,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_TB@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 3 DET

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=305

H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.144

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.851271255070269-4.0084869048664205	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.067332,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533666,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.466334,
    "away_win_probability": 0.533666
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.067332,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 DET",
    "confidence": 0.53366561,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 305,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.518,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51405,
    "published_confidence": 0.533666,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0687,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0687,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0191,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.376,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.144
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03234532671791657
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03134036798436294
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030727143972485566
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029772461648154478
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02821824479673556
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06880606290156342,
      "1": 0.11482859176929883,
      "2": 0.15881900720863712,
      "3": 0.1820472079033348,
      "4": 0.1729396897368885,
      "5": 0.13615526381596654,
      "6": 0.08883892689388574,
      "7": 0.04803980981418988,
      "8": 0.02152922330163827,
      "9": 0.007996216654597077
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06546909522072306,
      "1": 0.10956848452798412,
      "2": 0.1528326165443093,
      "3": 0.17767548917911227,
      "4": 0.17215516977884304,
      "5": 0.13902525360026569,
      "6": 0.09357253618098511,
      "7": 0.05249091983183196,
      "8": 0.024541496603114,
      "9": 0.009563106265716995,
      "10": 0.003105832267114462
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 DET",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 DET",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0429,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.201,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.144,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6217,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.144,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.376,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0429,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c7e288f75d707709",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
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      {
        "parameter": "confidence.sparse_sample_max",
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        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
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          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-25T22:35:26.001238+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-25T22:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.453404,
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      "predicted_score": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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        "away": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260825_TEX@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreTEX 5 - 4 CHW

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=305

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2785

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.046955721103227-3.704126929264164	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.067332,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533666,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.466334,
    "away_win_probability": 0.533666
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.067332,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.53366561,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 305,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.518,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51405,
    "published_confidence": 0.533666,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0625,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0625,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5685,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.26,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2785
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027963584374406405
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027163052453067688
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02675114545602626
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02598532282101655
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024896650162351937
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    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05565003741112012,
      "1": 0.0939452922387032,
      "2": 0.1344888101238067,
      "3": 0.1632671640438827,
      "4": 0.16807886835249813,
      "5": 0.14673338959888613,
      "6": 0.10862914294269127,
      "7": 0.06819700850013194,
      "8": 0.03630662372804224,
      "9": 0.016391095193812717,
      "10": 0.006275258911557251,
      "11": 0.0020373089548677654
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053194120813677116,
      "1": 0.08999558896429034,
      "2": 0.12968102490106026,
      "3": 0.15915829109417406,
      "4": 0.16637180300238966,
      "5": 0.14812480834972197,
      "6": 0.11232424348267475,
      "7": 0.07254656026994369,
      "8": 0.03990779856389937,
      "9": 0.01869805099166072,
      "10": 0.007461609741068461,
      "11": 0.0025360998254395327
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0955,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.26,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5187,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2785,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.26,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0955,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
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    "changes": [
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        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-25T23:37:16.517497+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-25T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 305,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.518,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.517,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2785,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.491808,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.963777,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.453404,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546596
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": -10.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.5,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0625,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0625,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -9.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -10.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "CHW",
          "games": 131,
          "wins": 68,
          "losses": 63,
          "win_pct": 0.5190839694656488,
          "runs_scored": 620,
          "runs_allowed": 586,
          "run_differential": 34,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.2595419847328244,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 132,
          "wins": 66,
          "losses": 66,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 532,
          "runs_allowed": 569,
          "run_differential": -37,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2803030303030303,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5398,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0191,
        "quality_edge": 0.2785,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5685,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.5685,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.26,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.2785
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.027963584374406405
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.027163052453067688
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02675114545602626
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02598532282101655
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.024896650162351937
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05565003741112012,
          "1": 0.0939452922387032,
          "2": 0.1344888101238067,
          "3": 0.1632671640438827,
          "4": 0.16807886835249813,
          "5": 0.14673338959888613,
          "6": 0.10862914294269127,
          "7": 0.06819700850013194,
          "8": 0.03630662372804224,
          "9": 0.016391095193812717,
          "10": 0.006275258911557251,
          "11": 0.0020373089548677654
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.053194120813677116,
          "1": 0.08999558896429034,
          "2": 0.12968102490106026,
          "3": 0.15915829109417406,
          "4": 0.16637180300238966,
          "5": 0.14812480834972197,
          "6": 0.11232424348267475,
          "7": 0.07254656026994369,
          "8": 0.03990779856389937,
          "9": 0.01869805099166072,
          "10": 0.007461609741068461,
          "11": 0.0025360998254395327
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.046955721103227,
      "home_runs": 3.704126929264164,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260825	20260825_BAL@STL	STL	57.2%	58.1%	57.8%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	13-1	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.580782, "sample_size": 270, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5778, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.579291, "published_confidence": 0.572189, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2807, "recent_quality_edge": 0.076, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.209 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.032860377848597605 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03140126748365456 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030996004646740873 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029790963411360293 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02961967866959412 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05093610227357938, "1": 0.08634895092614667, "2": 0.12517960647360643, "3": 0.15518697150387925, "4": 0.1645212852080669, "5": 0.14915371973523014, "6": 0.11563551621730832, "7": 0.07666436766802977, "8": 0.043465134914775994, "9": 0.021073354145034345, "10": 0.008737183541162251, "11": 0.0030978073931803535 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0889394117955931, "1": 0.145749256950052, "2": 0.19086446743922514, "3": 0.19973329169559867, "4": 0.16702538176602322, "5": 0.1116146304831587, "6": 0.05960276640693037, "7": 0.02543421560298682, "8": 0.00867315121580738, "9": 0.002363426644624637 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0179, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.076, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.209, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_BOS@MIA	BOS	60.4%	69.7%	56.8%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	7-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.697098, "sample_size": 280, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5679, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.632499, "published_confidence": 0.603747, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0167, "away_run_delta": 0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6901, "recent_quality_edge": -0.344, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.569 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.033064299156963524 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03302892262253619 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.03067505386035127 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030642233654672644 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03063400692123855 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09857913818434327, "1": 0.16011979352833358, "2": 0.20417731135164985, "3": 0.2043960010669294, "4": 0.16063484690015817, "5": 0.09910819976583372, "6": 0.04800449067957458, "7": 0.018253939207821434, "8": 0.005449213053553245, "9": 0.0012770662618027298 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0480715189780223, "1": 0.08170184625421817, "2": 0.11935658726587868, "3": 0.14987576450288503, "4": 0.1617658808605391, "5": 0.15007658515934827, "6": 0.11967665671364068, "7": 0.0820307068836456, "8": 0.04832968411020537, "9": 0.024474958033644016, "10": 0.010653699720382315, "11": 0.003986111517590527 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 MIA", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 MIA", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0562, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.694, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.569, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_CHC@ARI	CHC	66.4%	73.4%	55.3%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	4-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.73367, "sample_size": 197, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5533, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.643485, "published_confidence": 0.663552, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": -3.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0875, "away_run_delta": 0.0875, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9886, "recent_quality_edge": -0.32, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7546 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.029778872184655577 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02938392862647774 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02879497231057155 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02841307776629699 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.026454790198915067 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09152277517411503, "1": 0.14962856746299005, "2": 0.19455973993249695, "3": 0.2012076818564114, "4": 0.16549666989531098, "5": 0.10826475131393823, "6": 0.05632977640265657, "7": 0.023309990334231933, "8": 0.007671835479808, "9": 0.0020082121480407607 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03708930277790558, "1": 0.06365848396316491, "2": 0.09577708270582098, "3": 0.12631781605102121, "4": 0.14603780708257005, "5": 0.14800067228997144, "6": 0.1314800208164721, "7": 0.10238905410706346, "8": 0.06989481961439911, "9": 0.04182482539617177, "10": 0.02193920951456131, "11": 0.010088010028284914, "12": 0.004066190540960609, "13": 0.0014367051116326952 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 ARI", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 ARI", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0688, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.67, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7546, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_CIN@SF	SF	53.4%	56.0%	51.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.559597, "sample_size": 305, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.518, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.538799, "published_confidence": 0.533666, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0125, "away_run_delta": -0.0125, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0798, "recent_quality_edge": 0.092, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0841 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0325381643082063 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0314433577718217 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030822939782744904 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029785845138280666 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02844394425360939 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06589620224116408, "1": 0.11024133446373151, "2": 0.15359572752977102, "3": 0.1782232696600713, "4": 0.17222661912037038, "5": 0.13860750417873666, "6": 0.09290173153253109, "7": 0.05185748752095493, "8": 0.024107364381988475, "9": 0.009333372323605744, "10": 0.0030093870470749707 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06925518541646128, "1": 0.11553138073133706, "2": 0.15959725297297642, "3": 0.18256967437679142, "4": 0.17294565317724278, "5": 0.135665194475816, "6": 0.08812619383887378, "7": 0.04740447770301126, "8": 0.021115992512734848, "9": 0.007788994794755175 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0472, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.092, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SF", "model_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "SF", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "SF", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0841, "winner": "SF", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_CLE@LAA	CLE	64.6%	67.2%	56.8%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	8-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 280, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5679, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6202, "published_confidence": 0.646247, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0625, "away_run_delta": 0.0625, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6515, "recent_quality_edge": -0.48, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5915 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03781306446740205 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03659840889531176 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.034805920169492285 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03368786202024998 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.03316426463121172 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.11642317933595572, "1": 0.1859553704650805, "2": 0.2254753049748409, "3": 0.20754402150906728, "4": 0.14502486149806243, "5": 0.07692999039128794, "6": 0.03097917757701031, "7": 0.009470329226792177, "8": 0.00219776502190264 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0550702656392126, "1": 0.09301443697728973, "2": 0.13336208554468537, "3": 0.16231670647654964, "4": 0.1677037956401537, "5": 0.1470860174018271, "6": 0.10950872241616987, "7": 0.06921095826608806, "8": 0.037132128014272486, "9": 0.01691116949505472, "10": 0.006538020414665777, "11": 0.0021456937140307475 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 LAA", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 LAA", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0676, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.83, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5915, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_COL@WAS	WAS	56.0%	63.9%	57.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.639039, "sample_size": 263, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5779, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.60847, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 21.0, "absolute_net_margin": 21.0, "home_average_margin": 5.25, "home_run_delta": 0.1312, "away_run_delta": -0.1312, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3916, "recent_quality_edge": 0.284, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.0039 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02460625324587026 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024210891088181957 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023598755093856675 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023219580961190586 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02263319165684961 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.033658564355666463, "1": 0.057953053377157136, "2": 0.08802397419201242, "3": 0.11794228514472889, "4": 0.13940617742652486, "5": 0.1453578246883359, "6": 0.1337022533305028, "7": 0.10848831242434574, "8": 0.07765529896679016, "9": 0.0490346583666849, "10": 0.02731361144862953, "11": 0.013421436952842987, "12": 0.005817854016980384, "13": 0.002224695308797785 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.057718186726346925, "1": 0.0972579611901512, "2": 0.13846660837271582, "3": 0.16656063160062365, "4": 0.16928055506216422, "5": 0.14536143469424645, "6": 0.10546266414837463, "7": 0.06464808821982732, "8": 0.03348266716131713, "9": 0.014651828143091593, "10": 0.005417151696457101, "11": 0.0016922229846838084 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0203, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.459, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0039, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_HOU@NYY	NYY	57.1%	64.0%	58.7%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	9-7	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.639535, "sample_size": 230, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.587, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.613268, "published_confidence": 0.570546, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": 3.333, "home_run_delta": 0.0682, "away_run_delta": -0.0682, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2147, "recent_quality_edge": 0.492, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9617 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03292392560440035 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03152099579339247 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03102951112499328 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029707304693678927 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029283576978819593 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05331936068530098, "1": 0.09019742213485886, "2": 0.12992841715155184, "3": 0.15937309261396893, "4": 0.1664664364970808, "5": 0.14806049455112763, "6": 0.11213793096704103, "7": 0.07232138125320732, "8": 0.03971748274796032, "9": 0.018573662479866367, "10": 0.007396294806480377, "11": 0.0025080241115556837 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08590300878474895, "1": 0.14116360236871303, "2": 0.18640100537946833, "3": 0.19778116416264915, "4": 0.16862919542877372, "5": 0.1155292004001901, "6": 0.06360070470861112, "7": 0.028134762187374398, "8": 0.01000082274775195, "9": 0.0028565338317191207 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0307, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.6087, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9617, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_KC@TOR	KC	58.8%	71.6%	56.8%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	5-3	hit	Variance Applied (0.3364)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.715792, "sample_size": 280, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5679, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.641846, "published_confidence": 0.588185, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3409, "recent_quality_edge": -0.76, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0444 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03280441192792689 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03250876290391831 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030606332337006936 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030330493455828427 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03025999390577589 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09685491322842547, "1": 0.15757054627037012, "2": 0.2018913163138783, "3": 0.20372740496481895, "4": 0.16190881030941923, "5": 0.10133995910833614, "6": 0.04995514023692455, "7": 0.01939406536297428, "8": 0.005929891432322624, "9": 0.001427952772530246 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04737211731917978, "1": 0.08056369549533045, "2": 0.11791568408703564, "3": 0.14853177907509005, "4": 0.1610211053029011, "5": 0.15023178812046542, "6": 0.12063032054466645, "7": 0.0833617339930649, "8": 0.04957841176038614, "9": 0.025376638490531976, "10": 0.011178697087947395, "11": 0.004238028723400762 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0116, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.76, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0444, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_LAD@ATL	LAD	55.5%	64.3%	54.9%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.643361, "sample_size": 359, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5487, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.59603, "published_confidence": 0.554509, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 2.667, "home_run_delta": 0.0545, "away_run_delta": -0.0545, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3588, "recent_quality_edge": -0.772, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5034 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03277413624496572 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031883410207923985 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030329283434524876 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02950500290313179 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02866714816800411 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08187947427330511, "1": 0.13504418494939824, "2": 0.1802855262204993, "3": 0.19481839760908765, "4": 0.17040534122301154, "5": 0.12064812332428403, "6": 0.0691420210074287, "7": 0.032073599348937706, "8": 0.012043076948380206, "9": 0.003660255095667512 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05589002052989666, "1": 0.09433031626036734, "2": 0.13495370146229044, "3": 0.16365708064132403, "4": 0.16822916442793343, "5": 0.14658322239730162, "6": 0.1082639156627012, "7": 0.06777970669056961, "8": 0.03596931180997597, "9": 0.016180094771960498, "10": 0.0061694504761495685, "11": 0.0019940148695295904 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.014, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.6553, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5034, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_MIL@NYM	MIL	56.0%	67.0%	56.9%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	2-3	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.669577, "sample_size": 281, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5694, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.619489, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.667, "home_run_delta": -0.0136, "away_run_delta": 0.0136, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.7863, "recent_quality_edge": -0.5, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.3361 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03082340974520707 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.029753911023117585 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029028053855695783 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.028020849696258527 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0276897045682477 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08573796979043784, "1": 0.1409135541617035, "2": 0.186154669845856, "3": 0.19766814865257276, "4": 0.16871008610621105, "5": 0.11574093659694924, "6": 0.06382260562878538, "7": 0.028288092412494567, "8": 0.010078000751851035, "9": 0.0028859360531383023 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.043181795184233, "1": 0.07371569790482344, "2": 0.10912400404280921, "3": 0.140081772187364, "4": 0.15593513651702776, "5": 0.15052455960122293, "6": 0.12600035498046247, "7": 0.09146126316018442, "8": 0.05757098294435122, "9": 0.03142469830555025, "10": 0.014874405344475058, "11": 0.006105329827496271 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 NYM", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 NYM", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0793, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.6167, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.3361, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_MIN@OAK	MIN	54.9%	61.9%	54.1%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	2-4	miss	Variance Applied (-0.1979)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.619243, "sample_size": 438, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5411, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.580171, "published_confidence": 0.548657, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0375, "away_run_delta": 0.0375, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2008, "recent_quality_edge": -0.036, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7931 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.032594095305745086 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.032293030557376416 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029693025800994824 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029418757616612817 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02914296172758954 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07840990636671027, "1": 0.1297283372988025, "2": 0.17482721845621943, "3": 0.19190819617344007, "4": 0.1715885396980943, "5": 0.12496641539773136, "6": 0.07413249656928082, "7": 0.035820712436149, "8": 0.014098408555762533, "9": 0.004519769047809475 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.058832681255455516, "1": 0.09903800810813103, "2": 0.1405834218418469, "3": 0.16827332652426727, "4": 0.16984212220038614, "5": 0.14455212906650405, "6": 0.10374150279433511, "7": 0.06278118870585511, "8": 0.03203726925903829, "9": 0.013785750224181648, "10": 0.005002121968071948, "11": 0.001530478051927054 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0915, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.211, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7931, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_PHI@SEA	PHI	53.0%	83.2%	57.4%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	1-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.831998, "sample_size": 101, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5743, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.703149, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 7.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0583, "away_run_delta": -0.0583, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6742, "recent_quality_edge": -1.012, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7925 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02755266752336056 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.026980162915982674 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02641497345050305 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.025866108481571976 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025105482877434346 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08965082723184853, "1": 0.14681959353848636, "2": 0.19189144447705392, "3": 0.20015621746358336, "4": 0.16661896667158402, "5": 0.11069338461103469, "6": 0.05868954943255939, "7": 0.024833718986872668, "8": 0.008386188653374581, "9": 0.002260108933602497 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.027648886022510595, "1": 0.04787726539666624, "2": 0.07397191790763638, "3": 0.10197419008295869, "4": 0.12542944303991987, "5": 0.13765581640437186, "6": 0.13479552750286897, "7": 0.11777205205390266, "8": 0.0918110269854288, "9": 0.06386064372887067, "10": 0.03963305793550705, "11": 0.021946623625288212, "12": 0.01084335541253448, "13": 0.004780193901535711 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 SEA", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 SEA", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0015, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.662, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7925, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_PIT@SD	PIT	53.4%	55.1%	51.8%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-0	hit	Variance Applied (0.0317)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.550942, "sample_size": 305, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.518, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.534471, "published_confidence": 0.533666, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.025, "away_run_delta": -0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0032, "recent_quality_edge": 0.276, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0987 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02634715615469837 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024663110522047796 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024541366552837222 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024334682620827656 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024121988408391297 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.049713698875496475, "1": 0.08436874435829485, "2": 0.12271016966497374, "3": 0.15295827959421956, "4": 0.16340257138369668, "5": 0.14960229140768105, "6": 0.11738458454287136, "7": 0.07893640647860073, "8": 0.04549221663831857, "9": 0.022469339609620418, "10": 0.009511236502592639, "11": 0.003450460943633879 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04757559728938392, "1": 0.0808949656883757, "2": 0.1183356712585293, "3": 0.14892472263294887, "4": 0.16124076831588421, "5": 0.15018959827266104, "6": 0.12035434955569002, "7": 0.0829737392712572, "8": 0.04921261835599746, "9": 0.02511130135586746, "10": 0.011023484743897485, "11": 0.004163183259507422 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0226, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.276, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0987, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_TB@DET	TB	53.4%	51.0%	51.8%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	1-4	miss	Variance Applied (0.1572)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 305, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.518, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.51405, "published_confidence": 0.533666, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": 2.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0687, "away_run_delta": -0.0687, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0191, "recent_quality_edge": -0.376, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.144 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03234532671791657 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03134036798436294 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030727143972485566 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029772461648154478 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02821824479673556 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06880606290156342, "1": 0.11482859176929883, "2": 0.15881900720863712, "3": 0.1820472079033348, "4": 0.1729396897368885, "5": 0.13615526381596654, "6": 0.08883892689388574, "7": 0.04803980981418988, "8": 0.02152922330163827, "9": 0.007996216654597077 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06546909522072306, "1": 0.10956848452798412, "2": 0.1528326165443093, "3": 0.17767548917911227, "4": 0.17215516977884304, "5": 0.13902525360026569, "6": 0.09357253618098511, "7": 0.05249091983183196, "8": 0.024541496603114, "9": 0.009563106265716995, "10": 0.003105832267114462 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0429, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.201, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.144, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260825	20260825_TEX@CHW	TEX	53.4%	51.0%	51.8%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-11	miss	Variance Applied (-0.3428)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 305, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.518, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.51405, "published_confidence": 0.533666, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0625, "away_run_delta": 0.0625, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5685, "recent_quality_edge": -0.26, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2785 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027963584374406405 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027163052453067688 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02675114545602626 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02598532282101655 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024896650162351937 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05565003741112012, "1": 0.0939452922387032, "2": 0.1344888101238067, "3": 0.1632671640438827, "4": 0.16807886835249813, "5": 0.14673338959888613, "6": 0.10862914294269127, "7": 0.06819700850013194, "8": 0.03630662372804224, "9": 0.016391095193812717, "10": 0.006275258911557251, "11": 0.0020373089548677654 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.053194120813677116, "1": 0.08999558896429034, "2": 0.12968102490106026, "3": 0.15915829109417406, "4": 0.16637180300238966, "5": 0.14812480834972197, "6": 0.11232424348267475, "7": 0.07254656026994369, "8": 0.03990779856389937, "9": 0.01869805099166072, "10": 0.007461609741068461, "11": 0.0025360998254395327 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0955, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.26, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2785, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.4333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.9667 }
R	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1333 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.9667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0667 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.2667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.6, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2667 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.6, "mae_innings": 1.2, "bias_outs": 0.1333 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260825

20260825_BAL@STL

away

Chris Bassitt

True

5.0

6.2

-2

5/6

2/0

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.079207920792079,
      "WHIP": 1.618811881188119,
      "IP": 67.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.75,
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      "effective_weights": {
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "per_game": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      "total_change": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605135",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.9714,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605135",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 72,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.9575,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.6188,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9679,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9346,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_BAL@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_BAL@STL

home

Matthew Liberatore

True

5.1

4.0

-4

3/8

2/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.44,
      "IP": 125.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3431,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0292,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9957,
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      "bb_percent": 8.1,
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      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 727,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      },
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
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      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 441.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11538
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 881.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 88.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7848,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.53165,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32278,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10127,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11392
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 125.0,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.44,
            "BB": 1.76,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.84,
            "BF": 21.64,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.04,
            "WHIP": 1.44,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56,
            "H_per_IP": 1.088,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.352,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.168
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.714,
        "predicted_H": 5.051,
        "predicted_BB": 1.57,
        "predicted_SO": 5.63,
        "predicted_HR": 0.674,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6769,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2678
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "model_weight": 0.4204,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.6769,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2678,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 6,
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        "K9": 9.911392405063292,
        "HR9": 1.0253164556962027,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.040659967796073,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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    },
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        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 585.0,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "669461",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669461",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.1964,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
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          "components": {
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            "whiff_edge": -0.2643,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0543
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669461",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.87728695994706,
              "release_spin_rate": 2373.177135487591,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 87,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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            "summary": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3431,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0292,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9957,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0757,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669461",
            "espn_id": 41173,
            "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 727,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 727,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 270,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 30,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 83,
              "era_value": 5.04,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 120,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 7,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 125.0,
              "ip_rank": 66,
              "h_value": 136.0,
              "h_rank": 19,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 11,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 20,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 44,
              "k_value": 125.0,
              "k_rank": 44,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18,
              "whip_value": 1.44,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0292,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0292,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0757,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9957,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_BAL@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_BOS@MIA

away

Payton Tolle

True

6.0

5.1

-2

3/4

0/2

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.075,
      "WHIP": 1.0833333333333333,
      "IP": 120.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.714,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7655,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9349,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0431,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 0.915,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.283,
      "xwoba": 0.255,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 63,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.022,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79121,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25275,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13187
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 860.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0719,
            "WHIP": 1.0778,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34132,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80838,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26946,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29341,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12575
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 120.0,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 97.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 134.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 483.0,
            "Pitches": 1811.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9524,
            "R": 2.1429,
            "H": 4.619,
            "BB": 1.5714,
            "SO": 6.381,
            "HR": 0.619,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 86.2381
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.075,
            "WHIP": 1.0833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34167,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80833,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.275,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10833
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.014,
        "predicted_H": 4.884,
        "predicted_BB": 1.61,
        "predicted_SO": 6.923,
        "predicted_HR": 0.757,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0976,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1096
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.014,
          "final": 2.008,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.884,
          "final": 4.0715,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.61,
          "final": 0.9157,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 6.923,
          "final": 7.3875,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.757,
          "final": 0.4305,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0976,
          "final": 3.0976,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1096,
          "final": 1.1096,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 72,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.07185628742515,
        "WHIP": 1.0778443113772456,
        "K9": 11.640718562874252,
        "HR9": 1.131736526946108,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8430949712069727,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5496,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 492.0,
        "run_differential": 101.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.771,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5267,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7557,
        "offense_index": 1.0123,
        "defense_index": 1.1906,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.207
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5076,
        "runs_scored": 575.0,
        "runs_allowed": 556.0,
        "run_differential": 19.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1439,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3561,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2121,
        "offense_index": 0.9741,
        "defense_index": 1.0616,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0242
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1828,
        "offense_edge": 0.0123,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0259,
        "defense_strength": 0.1906,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0616,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0141,
        "run_prevention": 0.9677,
        "strikeout": 1.0076
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "801139",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "801139",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 456.0,
            "k_percent": 27.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.283,
            "xwoba": 0.255,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1641,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3052,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 55.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9308,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5789,
            "regression_edge": 0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2643,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1719
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "801139",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.9164359638128,
              "release_spin_rate": 2253.1406726268187,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.9164359638128,
                "release_spin_rate": 2253.1406726268187,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.9164,
              "release_spin_rate": 2253.1407,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1719,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2275,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7655,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9349,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0431,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 0.915,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "801139",
            "espn_id": 4966140,
            "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 63,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 63,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 348,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 81,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 37,
              "era_value": 3.075,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 96,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 120.0,
              "ip_rank": 79,
              "h_value": 97.0,
              "h_rank": 102,
              "er_value": 41.0,
              "er_rank": 131,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 104,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 116,
              "k_value": 134.0,
              "k_rank": 37,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.05,
              "k_per_9_rank": 12,
              "whip_value": 1.0833,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.09,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9349,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9349,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.915,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0431,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_BOS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_BOS@MIA

home

Tyler Phillips

True

5.0

4.2

-1

1/3

0/3

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.6655629139072845,
      "WHIP": 1.3708609271523178,
      "IP": 100.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.571,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3767,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.032,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9814,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 1.0746,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.321,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 142,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 100.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.666,
      "season_WHIP": 1.371,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 92.0,
            "Pitches": 336.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 18.4,
            "Pitches": 67.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2188,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98438,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 182.0,
            "Pitches": 669.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 66.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4646,
            "WHIP": 1.3701,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49606,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08661,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28346,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70866,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16535
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 100.2,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 96.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 79.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 434.0,
            "Pitches": 1617.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.3226,
            "R": 1.4194,
            "H": 3.0968,
            "BB": 1.3548,
            "SO": 2.5484,
            "HR": 0.4194,
            "BF": 14.0,
            "Pitches": 52.1613
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6656,
            "WHIP": 1.3709,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40728,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41722,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78477,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12914
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.004,
        "predicted_H": 4.369,
        "predicted_BB": 1.35,
        "predicted_SO": 3.664,
        "predicted_HR": 0.703,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2398,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3443
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.004,
          "final": 1.185,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.369,
          "final": 2.9921,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.35,
          "final": 0.7983,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.664,
          "final": 3.8013,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.703,
          "final": 0.4157,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2398,
          "final": 4.2398,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3443,
          "final": 1.3443,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 30,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.464566929133858,
        "WHIP": 1.3700787401574803,
        "K9": 6.377952755905511,
        "HR9": 1.4881889763779528,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0070807791187084,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5076,
        "runs_scored": 575.0,
        "runs_allowed": 556.0,
        "run_differential": 19.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1439,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3561,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2121,
        "offense_index": 0.9741,
        "defense_index": 1.0616,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0242
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5496,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 492.0,
        "run_differential": 101.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.771,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5267,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7557,
        "offense_index": 1.0123,
        "defense_index": 1.1906,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.207
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1828,
        "offense_edge": -0.0259,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0123,
        "defense_strength": 0.0616,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1906,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.994,
        "run_prevention": 1.0049,
        "strikeout": 0.9935
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663969",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663969",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 411.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.321,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.06,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5686,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4761,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2418,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0786,
            "bb_edge": -0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0541
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663969",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.88192254718405,
              "release_spin_rate": 2054.5891137790895,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.88192254718405,
                "release_spin_rate": 2054.5891137790895,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8819,
              "release_spin_rate": 2054.5891,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0541,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3863,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3767,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.032,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9814,
          "walk_factor": 1.01,
          "homer_factor": 1.0746,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663969",
            "espn_id": 41247,
            "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 142,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 142,
              "gp_value": 31.0,
              "gp_rank": 195,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 135,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 152,
              "era_value": 3.6655,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 224,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 96,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 84,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 100.2,
              "ip_rank": 106,
              "h_value": 96.0,
              "h_rank": 105,
              "er_value": 41.0,
              "er_rank": 131,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 104,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 56,
              "k_value": 79.0,
              "k_rank": 133,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.062914,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.3708,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.16,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0746,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9814,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 66,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_BOS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_CHC@ARI

away

Clay Holmes

True

6.0

7.0

0/2

1/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.4902912621359223,
      "WHIP": 1.1067961165048543,
      "IP": 68.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.722,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0799,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0068,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9471,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 0.9825,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 57,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 68.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.49,
      "season_WHIP": 1.107,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8077,
            "WHIP": 1.3077,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96154,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03846
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 884.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7321,
            "WHIP": 1.1429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30357,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73214,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05357
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 68.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 278.0,
            "Pitches": 1064.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.5833,
            "R": 1.5833,
            "H": 4.4167,
            "BB": 1.9167,
            "SO": 4.1667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 23.1667,
            "Pitches": 88.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4903,
            "WHIP": 1.1068,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2767,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77184,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33495,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72816,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05825
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.242,
        "predicted_H": 5.119,
        "predicted_BB": 1.951,
        "predicted_SO": 4.492,
        "predicted_HR": 0.436,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5663,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2493
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.242,
          "final": 1.1787,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 5.119,
          "final": 2.6913,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.951,
          "final": 1.5,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.492,
          "final": 5.2072,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.436,
          "final": 0.2292,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5663,
          "final": 3.5663,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2493,
          "final": 1.2493,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.7321428571428568,
        "WHIP": 1.1428571428571428,
        "K9": 6.5892857142857135,
        "HR9": 0.4821428571428571,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8065025310872121,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 0,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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        {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5758,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605280",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "605280",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0376
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605280",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.17575290406722,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 89,
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                "release_speed": 89.17575290406722,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
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            "espn_rank": 57,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_CHC@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_CHC@ARI

home

Brandon Pfaadt

True

6.1

6.2

5/6

3/2

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "player_id": "694297",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
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            "SO": 4.8,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.72,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "SO": 38.0,
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            "Pitches": 854.0
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            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
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          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "Pitches": 1481.0
          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.70169,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.594,
        "predicted_H": 4.79,
        "predicted_BB": 1.106,
        "predicted_SO": 4.411,
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        "predicted_ERA": 2.3777,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.594,
          "final": 2.1922,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 4.8793,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.411,
          "final": 5.0871,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.586,
          "final": 0.3367,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3777,
          "final": 2.3777,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9776,
          "final": 0.9776,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 1.7900552486187844,
        "WHIP": 0.9116022099447514,
        "K9": 5.668508287292817,
        "HR9": 0.5966850828729282,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6947363018054442,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5227,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0152,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5303,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5152,
        "offense_index": 1.0129,
        "defense_index": 0.9906,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0212
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5758,
        "runs_scored": 691.0,
        "runs_allowed": 569.0,
        "run_differential": 122.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9242,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2348,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3106,
        "offense_index": 1.1704,
        "defense_index": 1.0376,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1781
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1569,
        "offense_edge": 0.0129,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1704,
        "defense_strength": -0.0094,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0376,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9866,
        "run_prevention": 1.036,
        "strikeout": 0.9817
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694297",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694297",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 376.0,
            "k_percent": 17.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.293,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.328,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4472,
            "whiff_percent": 21.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3629,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3375,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5214,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.041
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694297",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.11465507139849,
              "release_spin_rate": 2451.253692155381,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.11465507139849,
                "release_spin_rate": 2451.253692155381,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1147,
              "release_spin_rate": 2451.2537,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.041,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2932,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1065,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9909,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9511,
          "walk_factor": 0.936,
          "homer_factor": 0.9686,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694297",
            "espn_id": 4721302,
            "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 94,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 94,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 314,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 142,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 83,
              "era_value": 3.3864,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 402,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 221,
              "ip_value": 98.1,
              "ip_rank": 107,
              "h_value": 88.0,
              "h_rank": 114,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 144,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 134,
              "bb_value": 24.0,
              "bb_rank": 205,
              "k_value": 69.0,
              "k_rank": 162,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.315254,
              "k_per_9_rank": 40,
              "whip_value": 1.1389,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.65,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9686,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9511,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 118,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_CHC@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_CIN@SF

away

Brady Singer

True

5.0

5.2

5/6

2/2

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.716455696202532,
      "WHIP": 1.420253164556962,
      "IP": 131.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4515,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0384,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9769,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 1.0855,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.351,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 125,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663903",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 500.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 100.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.5529,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38824,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67059,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 254.0,
            "Pitches": 977.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 97.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6023,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51136,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00568,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.2,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 144.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.9072,
          "source": "form_only"
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.4259,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.021133212905394,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 132,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4697,
        "runs_scored": 537.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": -99.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0682,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8182,
        "offense_index": 0.9096,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -19.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 131,
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        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4046,
        "runs_scored": 528.0,
        "runs_allowed": 603.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5725,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0305,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6031,
        "offense_index": 0.9011,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -11.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2215
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0904,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0989,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9897,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663903",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663903",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 545.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.9576,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1423
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663903",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.30662066127576,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.30662066127576,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3066,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.986,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0164,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4515,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0384,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Brady Singer",
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            "espn_rank": 125,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 25.0,
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              "era_value": 4.7164,
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              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 120,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 7,
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              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 131.2,
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              "h_value": 144.0,
              "h_rank": 11,
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              "er_rank": 13,
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              "bb_rank": 49,
              "k_value": 107.0,
              "k_rank": 76,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.313924,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37,
              "whip_value": 1.4202,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.31,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0384,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_CIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_CIN@SF

home

Adrian Houser

True

4.2

1.2

-9

-3

3/1

2/0

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3394495412844036,
      "IP": 109.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.562,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5012,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0426,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9214,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0793,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
      "whiff_percent": 17.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 223,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605288",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 82.0,
            "Pitches": 305.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 16.4,
            "Pitches": 61.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.0476,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.09524,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80952,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2381,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 153.0,
            "Pitches": 557.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 2.9,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 15.3,
            "Pitches": 55.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5882,
            "WHIP": 0.958,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73109,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22689,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60504,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07563
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 109.0,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 111.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 471.0,
            "Pitches": 1734.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.9615,
            "R": 2.1538,
            "H": 4.2692,
            "BB": 1.3462,
            "SO": 2.8846,
            "HR": 0.6154,
            "BF": 18.1154,
            "Pitches": 66.6923
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.211,
            "WHIP": 1.3394,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46789,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01835,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3211,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68807,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14679
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.061,
        "predicted_H": 3.639,
        "predicted_BB": 1.156,
        "predicted_SO": 3.067,
        "predicted_HR": 0.303,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.2256,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1181
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.061,
          "final": 1.8718,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.639,
          "final": 3.3718,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.156,
          "final": 1.5089,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.067,
          "final": 3.8753,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.303,
          "final": 0.5945,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.2256,
          "final": 2.2256,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1181,
          "final": 1.1181,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 39.2,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 29,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 24,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 1.588235294117647,
        "WHIP": 0.9579831932773109,
        "K9": 5.4453781512605035,
        "HR9": 0.6806722689075629,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6911517307309413,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605288",
      "player_name": "Adrian Houser",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 131,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4046,
        "runs_scored": 528.0,
        "runs_allowed": 603.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5725,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6031,
        "offense_index": 0.9011,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 70,
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        "runs_scored": 537.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": -99.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0682,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8182,
        "offense_index": 0.9096,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.188
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0335,
        "offense_edge": -0.0989,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0904,
        "defense_strength": -0.0283,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0014,
        "run_prevention": 0.99,
        "strikeout": 1.0062
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605288",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605288",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.327,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.7062,
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            "whiff_percent": 17.8,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8571,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6286,
            "whiff_edge": -1.0643,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1418
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605288",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 55,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 55,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.37988652271751,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 55,
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                "release_speed": 92.37988652271751,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3799,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.0129,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0426,
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          "homer_factor": 1.0793,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605288",
            "espn_id": 32157,
            "player_name": "Adrian Houser",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 223,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 223,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 270,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 121,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 4.0833,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 172,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 69,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 251,
              "ip_value": 108.0,
              "ip_rank": 97,
              "h_value": 108.0,
              "h_rank": 84,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 89,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 70,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 109,
              "k_value": 73.0,
              "k_rank": 151,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.0833335,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42,
              "whip_value": 1.3148,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.63,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0426,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0426,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0793,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9214,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_CIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_CLE@LAA

away

Gavin Williams

True

5.2

1.1

-13

3/6

2/1

8/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.724137931034483,
      "WHIP": 1.0862068965517242,
      "IP": 154.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.949,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1466,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9875,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0951,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 1.1314,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 32.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 11.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.7,
      "whiff_percent": 31.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 42,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4941,
            "WHIP": 1.0235,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38824,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63529,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38824,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.58824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 90.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 945.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 94.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.569,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39655,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7069,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2931,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.55172,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.2,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 201.0,
            "HR": 25.0,
            "BF": 621.0,
            "Pitches": 2457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4615,
            "R": 2.5769,
            "H": 4.6154,
            "BB": 1.8462,
            "SO": 7.7308,
            "HR": 0.9615,
            "BF": 23.8846,
            "Pitches": 94.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.0862,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31034,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29957,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16164
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.366,
        "predicted_H": 4.206,
        "predicted_BB": 1.968,
        "predicted_SO": 8.157,
        "predicted_HR": 0.962,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7206,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0788
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.366,
          "final": 1.3767,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.206,
          "final": 3.7017,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.968,
          "final": 1.9814,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 8.157,
          "final": 7.6732,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.962,
          "final": 0.5597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7206,
          "final": 3.7206,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0788,
          "final": 1.0788,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 90,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.5689655172413794,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 13.96551724137931,
        "HR9": 1.5517241379310345,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8970736517768674,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 531.0,
        "runs_allowed": 538.0,
        "run_differential": -7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.053,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0227,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0758,
        "offense_index": 0.8994,
        "defense_index": 1.0974,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0635
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3939,
        "runs_scored": 539.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": -72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5455,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0833,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6288,
        "offense_index": 0.9129,
        "defense_index": 0.9663,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1923
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2558,
        "offense_edge": -0.1006,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0871,
        "defense_strength": 0.0974,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0337,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0166,
        "run_prevention": 0.9635,
        "strikeout": 1.0146
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 593.0,
            "k_percent": 32.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2423,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0535,
            "whiff_percent": 31.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1659,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0561,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.4143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8929,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0615
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.94628314658443,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.2769819363643,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.94628314658443,
                "release_spin_rate": 2281.2769819363643,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9463,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.277,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0615,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4395,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1466,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9875,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0951,
          "walk_factor": 0.97,
          "homer_factor": 1.1314,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_id": 4345076,
            "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 42,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 42,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 235,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 10,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 59,
              "era_value": 3.7241,
              "era_rank": 33.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 12,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 69,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 154.2,
              "ip_rank": 11,
              "h_value": 120.0,
              "h_rank": 57,
              "er_value": 64.0,
              "er_rank": 29,
              "hr_value": 25.0,
              "hr_rank": 10,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 30,
              "k_value": 201.0,
              "k_rank": 3,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.696121,
              "k_per_9_rank": 7,
              "whip_value": 1.0862,
              "whip_rank": 13.0,
              "war_value": 2.6,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9875,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9875,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1314,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0951,
            "adjusted": 9
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_CLE@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_CLE@LAA

home

Walbert Ureña

True

5.2

3.2

-6

1/5

2/5

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.79585798816568,
      "WHIP": 1.242603550295858,
      "IP": 112.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.286,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4227,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9641,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0186,
      "walk_factor": 1.062,
      "homer_factor": 0.9222,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 12.3,
      "woba": 0.276,
      "xwoba": 0.283,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 37,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 112.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.796,
      "season_WHIP": 1.243,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 425.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8421,
            "WHIP": 1.0263,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55263,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02632,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07895
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 207.0,
            "Pitches": 881.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.7,
            "Pitches": 88.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0397,
            "WHIP": 1.1126,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33775,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63576,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47682,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01325,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03974
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 112.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 81.0,
            "BB": 59.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 479.0,
            "Pitches": 1936.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.5217,
            "R": 1.8261,
            "H": 3.5217,
            "BB": 2.5652,
            "SO": 4.7391,
            "HR": 0.3043,
            "BF": 20.8261,
            "Pitches": 84.1739
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7959,
            "WHIP": 1.2426,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71893,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52367,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96746,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06213
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.815,
        "predicted_H": 3.479,
        "predicted_BB": 2.374,
        "predicted_SO": 5.111,
        "predicted_HR": 0.395,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1915,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1434
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.815,
          "final": 1.8937,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.479,
          "final": 2.4243,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.374,
          "final": 2.2149,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.111,
          "final": 5.0638,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.395,
          "final": 0.2269,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1915,
          "final": 3.1915,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1434,
          "final": 1.1434,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.039735099337748,
        "WHIP": 1.1125827814569536,
        "K9": 9.119205298013245,
        "HR9": 0.3576158940397351,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8403497992991328,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "player_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 132,
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        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3939,
        "runs_scored": 539.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": -72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5455,
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          "run_differential": 11.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.053,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0758,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0871,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9928,
        "run_prevention": 1.0001,
        "strikeout": 1.0004
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700712",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700712",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.2253
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700712",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.87027755344951,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 85,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.8703,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.6091,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4227,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "700712",
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            "player_name": "Walbert Urena",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 37,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 23.0,
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              "era_value": 2.7958,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 18,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 251,
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              "ip_rank": 93,
              "h_value": 81.0,
              "h_rank": 128,
              "er_value": 35.0,
              "er_rank": 153,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 210,
              "bb_value": 59.0,
              "bb_rank": 11,
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              "k_rank": 73,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.707101,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.2426,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.75,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9641,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9641,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.062,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.9222,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0186,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_CLE@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_COL@WAS

away

Mason Adams

True

0.1

4.0

-2

9/3

0/3

1/5

Last 10 before this game (0 available)

No pregame recent-game rows were available.

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": null,
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      "projection_source": "league_average_stable_fallback"
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690279",
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      "windows": {
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        },
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 7.0267,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 2.3892,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.049,
          "final": 0.7836,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.5229,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": null,
    "recent_form_boost": null,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 0.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 0.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.0,
          "prior_weight": 1.0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "player_name": "Mason Adams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.3817,
        "runs_scored": 620.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1145,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7328,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8473,
        "offense_index": 1.0584,
        "defense_index": 0.7647,
        "current_streak": "L7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.3,
          "run_differential": -30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3426
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
        "run_differential": 20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1504,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2256,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0752,
        "offense_index": 1.1686,
        "defense_index": 0.8811,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1152
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2274,
        "offense_edge": 0.0584,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1686,
        "defense_strength": -0.2353,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1189,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9771,
        "run_prevention": 1.0619,
        "strikeout": 0.9797
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 0.1,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 10,
      "Pitches": 31,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "NO_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "No prior appearances in the source dataset",
      "detail": "The model had no row-level pitching history before this game; any precise box-score line should carry a strong uncertainty warning."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_COL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_COL@WAS

home

Andrew Alvarez

True

5.0

4.2

-1

4/5

7/2

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6,
      "WHIP": 1.3375,
      "IP": 80.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.848,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1286,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0109,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0049,
      "walk_factor": 1.028,
      "homer_factor": 1.0042,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.304,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 103,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 382.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 76.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3625,
            "WHIP": 1.0125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 202.0,
            "Pitches": 755.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 75.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7762,
            "WHIP": 1.3007,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41958,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7972,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5035,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77622,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04196
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 80.0,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 71.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 339.0,
            "Pitches": 1311.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6842,
            "R": 1.6842,
            "H": 3.7368,
            "BB": 1.8947,
            "SO": 3.8947,
            "HR": 0.2105,
            "BF": 17.8421,
            "Pitches": 69.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.3375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.925,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.859,
        "predicted_H": 3.832,
        "predicted_BB": 2.137,
        "predicted_SO": 3.997,
        "predicted_HR": 0.379,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4002,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2129
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.859,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.832,
          "final": 3.9056,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 4.267,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.4002,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 20,
        "H": 38,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 2,
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        "K9": 6.986013986013985,
        "HR9": 0.3776223776223776,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9279076884298695,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 7.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 7.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
        "run_differential": 20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1504,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2256,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0752,
        "offense_index": 1.1686,
        "defense_index": 0.8811,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1152
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.3817,
        "runs_scored": 620.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1145,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7328,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8473,
        "offense_index": 1.0584,
        "defense_index": 0.7647,
        "current_streak": "L7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.3,
          "run_differential": -30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3426
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2274,
        "offense_edge": 0.1686,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0584,
        "defense_strength": -0.1189,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2353,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0032,
        "run_prevention": 1.0099,
        "strikeout": 1.0022
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674841",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674841",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 302.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.304,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3467,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8073,
            "whiff_percent": 26.3,
            "swing_percent": 44.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0919,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0304,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.15,
            "bb_edge": -0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1518
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674841",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.13661568408875,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.9833130374473,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.13661568408875,
                "release_spin_rate": 2504.9833130374473,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.1366,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.9833,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1518,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0844,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1286,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0109,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0049,
          "walk_factor": 1.028,
          "homer_factor": 1.0042,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "674841",
            "espn_id": 4300668,
            "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 103,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 103,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 376,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 154,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 173,
              "era_value": 3.6,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 293,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 121,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 128,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 221,
              "ip_value": 80.0,
              "ip_rank": 145,
              "h_value": 71.0,
              "h_rank": 150,
              "er_value": 32.0,
              "er_rank": 165,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 346,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 88,
              "k_value": 74.0,
              "k_rank": 146,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.325,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.3375,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.56,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0109,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0109,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.028,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0042,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0049,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 7,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_COL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_HOU@NYY

away

Ethan Pecko

True

3.1

4.1

3/5

4/4

2/1

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.909090909090909,
      "WHIP": 1.6363636363636365,
      "IP": 3.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0342,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9971,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0037,
      "walk_factor": 0.9991,
      "homer_factor": 0.9971,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 461,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.6364,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.6364,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.6364,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.01,
        "predicted_H": 3.749,
        "predicted_BB": 1.745,
        "predicted_SO": 3.823,
        "predicted_HR": 0.485,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5873,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3928
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7021,
      "form_weight": 0.2979,
      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.01,
          "final": 2.003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.749,
          "final": 3.2232,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.745,
          "final": 3.3282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.823,
          "final": 2.5431,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.485,
          "final": 0.8466,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5873,
          "final": 4.5873,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3928,
          "final": 1.3928,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 3.2,
        "ER": 2,
        "H": 3,
        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 4,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 4.909090909090909,
        "WHIP": 1.6363636363636365,
        "K9": 9.818181818181818,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0076315544134151,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "player_name": "Ethan Pecko",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
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            },
            {
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            }
          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 131,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3359,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5496,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8855,
        "offense_index": 1.0174,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 130,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5692,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 479.0,
        "run_differential": 100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6846,
        "offense_index": 0.996,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 6,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2679,
        "offense_edge": 0.0174,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.004,
        "defense_strength": -0.0847,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2136,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9869,
        "run_prevention": 1.0212,
        "strikeout": 0.9923
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "814490",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "814490",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8717,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0888,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0904,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0786,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "814490",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0342,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9971,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0037,
          "walk_factor": 0.9991,
          "homer_factor": 0.9971,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "814490",
            "espn_id": 4944276,
            "player_name": "Ethan Pecko",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 461,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 461,
              "gp_value": 1.0,
              "gp_rank": 758,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 289,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 4.909,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 502,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 552,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 3.2,
              "ip_rank": 715,
              "h_value": 3.0,
              "h_rank": 744,
              "er_value": 2.0,
              "er_rank": 709,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 713,
              "bb_value": 3.0,
              "bb_rank": 646,
              "k_value": 4.0,
              "k_rank": 672,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.818182,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.6363,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.02,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_HOU@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_HOU@NYY

home

Will Warren

True

4.2

5.0

4/7

1/2

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.426229508196721,
      "WHIP": 1.401639344262295,
      "IP": 122.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.056,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2799,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0238,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9883,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.0659,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 352,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701542",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 418.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 83.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2609,
            "WHIP": 1.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69565,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13043,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08696,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21739
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 195.0,
            "Pitches": 761.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 76.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1832,
            "WHIP": 1.5344,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68702,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14504,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38931,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87023,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25191
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 122.0,
            "ER": 60.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 122.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 535.0,
            "Pitches": 2095.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.88,
            "H": 5.12,
            "BB": 1.72,
            "SO": 4.88,
            "HR": 0.76,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4262,
            "WHIP": 1.4016,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4918,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04918,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35246,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15574
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.9,
        "predicted_H": 5.067,
        "predicted_BB": 1.759,
        "predicted_SO": 4.558,
        "predicted_HR": 0.951,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6427,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4758
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.9,
          "final": 1.6808,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.067,
          "final": 4.6184,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.759,
          "final": 1.4399,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.558,
          "final": 5.1643,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.951,
          "final": 0.5512,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6427,
          "final": 5.6427,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4758,
          "final": 1.4758,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.2,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 6.183206106870229,
        "WHIP": 1.534351145038168,
        "K9": 7.8320610687022905,
        "HR9": 2.267175572519084,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2045344967360672,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701542",
      "player_name": "Will Warren",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5692,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 479.0,
        "run_differential": 100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6846,
        "offense_index": 0.996,
        "defense_index": 1.2136,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3359,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5496,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8855,
        "offense_index": 1.0174,
        "defense_index": 0.9153,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0795
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2679,
        "offense_edge": -0.004,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0174,
        "defense_strength": 0.2136,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0847,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0164,
        "run_prevention": 0.968,
        "strikeout": 1.0066
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701542",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701542",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 514.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.342,
            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4541,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0645,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 43.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5407,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0311,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4071,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0292
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701542",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.36851976238309,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.9632519059246,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.36851976238309,
                "release_spin_rate": 2504.9632519059246,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.9633,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0292,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2083,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2799,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0238,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9883,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.0659,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "701542",
            "espn_id": 5132011,
            "player_name": "Will Warren",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 352,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 352,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 270,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 83,
              "era_value": 4.4262,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 96,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 251,
              "ip_value": 122.0,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 33,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 47,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 28,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 49,
              "k_value": 122.0,
              "k_rank": 49,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 17,
              "whip_value": 1.4016,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.17,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0238,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0238,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0659,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9883,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_HOU@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_KC@TOR

away

Seth Lugo

True

5.2

5.0

-2

-1

4/6

0/1

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.706422018348624,
      "WHIP": 1.3830275229357798,
      "IP": 145.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.59,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5579,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0474,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9374,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 1.0724,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.347,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 361,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1807,
            "WHIP": 1.4458,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68675,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15663,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61446,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03614
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5636,
            "WHIP": 1.4,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61818,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10909,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29091,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76364,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.1,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 84.0,
            "H": 155.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6894,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4167,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.947,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607625",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607625",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
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          "components": {
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            "bb_edge": 0.45,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2342
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607625",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.66495773113361,
              "release_spin_rate": 2512.8015132364526,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5579,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 361,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.383,
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              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0474,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_KC@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_KC@TOR

home

Max Scherzer

True

4.1

5.0

-2

6/4

1/5

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.511111111111111,
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.091,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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    "savant": {
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      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.2,
      "whiff_percent": 17.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "453286",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 83,
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              "release_speed": 87.69537803907868,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.5111,
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0172,
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_KC@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_LAD@ATL

away

Tyler Glasnow

True

5.2

5.0

-2

2/6

0/0

6/7

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.722689075630252,
      "WHIP": 0.8319327731092437,
      "IP": 39.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4139,
      "sample_weight": 0.572,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9648,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0512,
      "walk_factor": 0.9954,
      "homer_factor": 0.9822,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.1,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.235,
      "xwoba": 0.252,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 29.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 123,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 408.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6024,
            "WHIP": 0.7952,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "H_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22892,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18072
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 148.0,
            "Pitches": 599.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7143,
            "R": 1.7143,
            "H": 2.8571,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 21.1429,
            "Pitches": 85.5714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7227,
            "WHIP": 0.8319,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30252,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5042,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32773,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12605
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 148.0,
            "Pitches": 599.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7143,
            "R": 1.7143,
            "H": 2.8571,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 21.1429,
            "Pitches": 85.5714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7227,
            "WHIP": 0.8319,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30252,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5042,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32773,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12605
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.153,
        "predicted_H": 3.795,
        "predicted_BB": 2.036,
        "predicted_SO": 6.298,
        "predicted_HR": 0.903,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4193,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.029
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.153,
          "final": 2.0725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.795,
          "final": 2.8507,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.036,
          "final": 0.965,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.298,
          "final": 5.0891,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.903,
          "final": 0.428,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4193,
          "final": 3.4193,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.029,
          "final": 1.029,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 39.2,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 20,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 49,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.7226890756302518,
        "WHIP": 0.8319327731092436,
        "K9": 11.117647058823527,
        "HR9": 1.134453781512605,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7976658714233467,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6107,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 502.0,
        "run_differential": 151.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1527,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9847,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8321,
        "offense_index": 1.1147,
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        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "run_differential": 9.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 614.0,
        "runs_allowed": 504.0,
        "run_differential": 110.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8397,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.687,
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        "offense_index": 1.0482,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 2.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1015
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2044,
        "offense_edge": 0.1147,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0482,
        "defense_strength": 0.1669,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1623,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0113,
        "run_prevention": 0.9808,
        "strikeout": 1.0023
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607192",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607192",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 33.1,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.235,
            "xwoba": 0.252,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.8224,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8526,
            "whiff_percent": 29.8,
            "swing_percent": 43.1
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.316,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9295,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9611,
            "regression_edge": -0.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.65,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0224
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607192",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.24801416590935,
              "release_spin_rate": 2625.2769823048557,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.24801416590935,
                "release_spin_rate": 2625.2769823048557,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.248,
              "release_spin_rate": 2625.277,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0224,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1601,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4139,
          "sample_weight": 0.572,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9648,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0512,
          "walk_factor": 0.9954,
          "homer_factor": 0.9822,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607192",
            "espn_id": 33190,
            "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 123,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 123,
              "gp_value": 7.0,
              "gp_rank": 561,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 192,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 117,
              "era_value": 2.7226,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 224,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 552,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 39.2,
              "ip_rank": 346,
              "h_value": 20.0,
              "h_rank": 485,
              "er_value": 12.0,
              "er_rank": 441,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 288,
              "bb_value": 13.0,
              "bb_rank": 389,
              "k_value": 49.0,
              "k_rank": 265,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.117647,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 0.8319,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.31,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9799,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9799,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_LAD@ATL

home

Bryce Elder

True

5.2

6.0

-1

7/8

4/0

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.9225181598062955,
      "WHIP": 1.234866828087167,
      "IP": 137.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.736,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0918,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0078,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9649,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0038,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 120,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693821",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4138,
            "WHIP": 1.2414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37931,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7931,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44828,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 840.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.5,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9434,
            "WHIP": 1.5283,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66038,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13208,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39623,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28302
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 137.2,
            "ER": 60.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 113.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 579.0,
            "Pitches": 2063.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.75,
            "H": 5.1667,
            "BB": 1.9167,
            "SO": 4.7083,
            "HR": 0.9167,
            "BF": 24.125,
            "Pitches": 85.9583
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9225,
            "WHIP": 1.2349,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43584,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90073,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33414,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82082,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15981
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.737,
        "predicted_H": 5.24,
        "predicted_BB": 2.23,
        "predicted_SO": 4.588,
        "predicted_HR": 1.103,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4219,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3411
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.737,
          "final": 3.271,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.24,
          "final": 5.9842,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.23,
          "final": 2.9784,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.588,
          "final": 3.9165,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.103,
          "final": 1.0594,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4219,
          "final": 4.4219,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3411,
          "final": 1.3411,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 15,
        "ERA": 5.943396226415095,
        "WHIP": 1.528301886792453,
        "K9": 7.132075471698113,
        "HR9": 2.547169811320755,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1774046537287217,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693821",
      "player_name": "Bryce Elder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 614.0,
        "runs_allowed": 504.0,
        "run_differential": 110.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8397,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.687,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8473,
        "offense_index": 1.0482,
        "defense_index": 1.1623,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1015
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6107,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 502.0,
        "run_differential": 151.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1527,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9847,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8321,
        "offense_index": 1.1147,
        "defense_index": 1.1669,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3059
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2044,
        "offense_edge": 0.0482,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1147,
        "defense_strength": 0.1623,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1669,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9921,
        "run_prevention": 1.0123,
        "strikeout": 0.9847
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693821",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693821",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 554.0,
            "k_percent": 19.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.1908,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3747,
            "whiff_percent": 21.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0092,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2782,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5214,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0724
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693821",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.55423108441673,
              "release_spin_rate": 2159.7667053455843,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.55423108441673,
                "release_spin_rate": 2159.7667053455843,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5542,
              "release_spin_rate": 2159.7667,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0724,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5174,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0918,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0078,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9649,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0038,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693821",
            "espn_id": 4301067,
            "player_name": "Bryce Elder",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 120,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 120,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 295,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 14,
              "era_value": 3.9225,
              "era_rank": 37.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 69,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 137.2,
              "ip_rank": 41,
              "h_value": 124.0,
              "h_rank": 47,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 47,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 16,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 36,
              "k_value": 113.0,
              "k_rank": 65,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.387409,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42,
              "whip_value": 1.2348,
              "whip_rank": 38.0,
              "war_value": 1.35,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0078,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0078,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0038,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9649,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 120,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_MIL@NYM

away

Kyle Harrison

True

5.1

5.0

-1

5/6

3/1

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8372881355932207,
      "WHIP": 1.1084745762711865,
      "IP": 98.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.917,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5401,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9541,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0694,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9503,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.276,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 29.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 50,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 98.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.837,
      "season_WHIP": 1.108,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690986",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 93.0,
            "Pitches": 380.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 18.6,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7969,
            "WHIP": 1.3594,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42188,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32812,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 814.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 81.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2429,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 98.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 83.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 122.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 402.0,
            "Pitches": 1695.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.55,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.15,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.65,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 84.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8373,
            "WHIP": 1.1085,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31525,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84407,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26441,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24068,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1322
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.087,
        "predicted_H": 4.635,
        "predicted_BB": 1.468,
        "predicted_SO": 5.723,
        "predicted_HR": 0.855,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9134,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2716
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.087,
          "final": 2.0492,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.635,
          "final": 4.7936,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.468,
          "final": 2.1337,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.723,
          "final": 5.8434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.855,
          "final": 0.4835,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9134,
          "final": 3.9134,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2716,
          "final": 1.2716,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.242857142857142,
        "WHIP": 1.2,
        "K9": 11.764285714285712,
        "HR9": 1.9285714285714284,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9778864596586406,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690986",
      "player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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        {
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        {
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      ],
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "games": 131,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0164
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690986",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690986",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
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            "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.942,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7825,
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            "swing_percent": 48.4
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          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.55,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0077
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690986",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.98577717440415,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.9811603582148,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 78,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0077,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0553,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5401,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "690986",
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            "player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 50,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 20.0,
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              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 217,
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              "bb_rank": 180,
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              "k_per_9_value": 11.166101,
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              "whip_value": 1.1084,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_MIL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_MIL@NYM

home

Zac Thornton

True

6.0

1/7

3/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.1324503311258278,
      "IP": 50.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.593,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.628,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9654,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0497,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 19.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 126,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 50.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.04,
      "season_WHIP": 1.132,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 417.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3704,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07407,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7037,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 738.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8889,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.7778,
            "BB": 1.5556,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 22.2222,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1325,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33775,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8543,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27815,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71523,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 9,
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      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "804267",
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      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4504,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3053,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 50,
        "win_pct": 0.6183,
        "runs_scored": 650.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.229,
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        "available": true,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804267",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804267",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.1523,
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0152,
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_MIL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_MIN@OAK

away

Taj Bradley

True

5.1

6.2

2/7

2/1

5/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.902843601895735,
      "WHIP": 1.2796208530805688,
      "IP": 140.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.627,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0371,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0032,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0294,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 1.0745,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 25,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8462,
            "WHIP": 1.5385,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61538,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 970.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 6.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7895,
            "WHIP": 1.2807,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42105,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80702,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17544,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12281
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 140.2,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 61.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 158.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 599.0,
            "Pitches": 2418.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.44,
            "R": 2.44,
            "H": 4.72,
            "BB": 2.48,
            "SO": 6.32,
            "HR": 0.76,
            "BF": 23.96,
            "Pitches": 96.72
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9028,
            "WHIP": 1.2796,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43365,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83886,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44076,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12322,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13507
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.638,
        "predicted_H": 4.851,
        "predicted_BB": 2.763,
        "predicted_SO": 6.067,
        "predicted_HR": 0.613,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3269,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3878
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.638,
          "final": 2.3698,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.851,
          "final": 3.6524,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.763,
          "final": 2.4422,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.067,
          "final": 5.6184,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.613,
          "final": 0.3553,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3269,
          "final": 4.3269,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3878,
          "final": 1.3878,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 67,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.789473684210526,
        "WHIP": 1.280701754385965,
        "K9": 10.578947368421053,
        "HR9": 1.105263157894737,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9288983644205455,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4848,
        "runs_scored": 609.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3864,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6136,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
        "offense_index": 1.0315,
        "defense_index": 0.8945,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0954
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 51,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.3864,
        "runs_scored": 574.0,
        "runs_allowed": 764.0,
        "run_differential": -190.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4394,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3485,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7879,
        "offense_index": 0.9722,
        "defense_index": 0.7728,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3436
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2482,
        "offense_edge": 0.0315,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0278,
        "defense_strength": -0.1055,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2272,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0079,
        "run_prevention": 0.9937,
        "strikeout": 1.0097
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671737",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671737",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 578.0,
            "k_percent": 26.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.4,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.8393,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8475,
            "whiff_percent": 26.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1906,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2604,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1071,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1676
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671737",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.84063282193854,
              "release_spin_rate": 2176.0954490135146,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.84063282193854,
                "release_spin_rate": 2176.0954490135146,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8406,
              "release_spin_rate": 2176.0954,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1676,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.1972,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0371,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0032,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0294,
          "walk_factor": 1.024,
          "homer_factor": 1.0745,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671737",
            "espn_id": 42480,
            "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 25,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 25,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 270,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 30,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 37,
              "era_value": 3.9028,
              "era_rank": 36.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 121,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 140.2,
              "ip_rank": 33,
              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 61,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 41,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 28,
              "bb_value": 62.0,
              "bb_rank": 8,
              "k_value": 158.0,
              "k_rank": 16,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.109004,
              "k_per_9_rank": 13,
              "whip_value": 1.2796,
              "whip_rank": 42.0,
              "war_value": 3.06,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0032,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0032,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0745,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0294,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_MIN@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_MIN@OAK

home

Gage Jump

True

4.2

6.1

-2

6/3

0/2

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 82.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.125,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1207,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.01,
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      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.34,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 149,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "695611",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
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            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.8,
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            "SO": 5.4,
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            "Pitches": 93.0
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.72,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.76,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.2,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 897.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 89.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.77143,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19286
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 82.0,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 84.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 88.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 361.0,
            "Pitches": 1445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.75,
            "R": 2.875,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.5625,
            "BF": 22.5625,
            "Pitches": 90.3125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8293,
            "WHIP": 1.5122,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53659,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02439,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4878,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07317,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10976
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.077,
        "predicted_H": 5.209,
        "predicted_BB": 2.916,
        "predicted_SO": 5.214,
        "predicted_HR": 0.642,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6391,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6545
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.077,
          "final": 2.5917,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.209,
          "final": 3.763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.916,
          "final": 1.6021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.214,
          "final": 5.1176,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.642,
          "final": 0.3527,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6391,
          "final": 5.6391,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6545,
          "final": 1.6545,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.2,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 30,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 9,
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        "WHIP": 1.9285714285714286,
        "K9": 10.221428571428572,
        "HR9": 1.7357142857142858,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.2998507453729264,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 16.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695611",
      "player_name": "Gage Jump",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.2,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 3,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 51,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.3864,
        "runs_scored": 574.0,
        "runs_allowed": 764.0,
        "run_differential": -190.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4394,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3485,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7879,
        "offense_index": 0.9722,
        "defense_index": 0.7728,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3436
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4848,
        "runs_scored": 609.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3864,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6136,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
        "offense_index": 1.0315,
        "defense_index": 0.8945,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0954
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2482,
        "offense_edge": -0.0278,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0315,
        "defense_strength": -0.2272,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1055,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.982,
        "run_prevention": 1.0402,
        "strikeout": 0.99
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695611",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695611",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 337.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 11.1,
            "woba": 0.34,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3723,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2998,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3144,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0268,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0929,
            "bb_edge": -0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0696
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695611",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.08991637091822,
              "release_spin_rate": 2304.151617914787,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.08991637091822,
                "release_spin_rate": 2304.151617914787,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0899,
              "release_spin_rate": 2304.1516,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0696,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4969,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1207,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0103,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.01,
          "walk_factor": 1.038,
          "homer_factor": 0.9976,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695611",
            "espn_id": 5023852,
            "player_name": "Gage Jump",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 149,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 149,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 418,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 116,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 100,
              "era_value": 4.8292,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 120,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 37,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 82.0,
              "ip_rank": 140,
              "h_value": 84.0,
              "h_rank": 120,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 114,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 163,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 70,
              "k_value": 88.0,
              "k_rank": 111,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.658537,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.5121,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.12,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0103,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0103,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.038,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_MIN@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_PHI@SEA

away

Aaron Nola

True

5.1

6.0

-1

4/3

2/3

3/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.124087591240876,
      "WHIP": 1.416058394160584,
      "IP": 137.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.269,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0031,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0003,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0311,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 1.0683,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 24.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.357,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 98,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 484.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5116,
            "WHIP": 1.2907,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18605,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2093
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 934.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4734,
            "WHIP": 1.3669,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49704,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02959,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33728,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13609,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24852
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 137.0,
            "ER": 78.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 146.0,
            "HR": 31.0,
            "BF": 593.0,
            "Pitches": 2366.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0769,
            "H": 5.6923,
            "BB": 1.7692,
            "SO": 5.6154,
            "HR": 1.1923,
            "BF": 22.8077,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1241,
            "WHIP": 1.4161,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56934,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08029,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33577,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06569,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22628
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.4,
        "predicted_H": 5.591,
        "predicted_BB": 1.943,
        "predicted_SO": 6.241,
        "predicted_HR": 1.199,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8501,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3427
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.4,
          "final": 2.6509,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.591,
          "final": 4.9257,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.943,
          "final": 1.9668,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.241,
          "final": 4.8858,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.199,
          "final": 1.1158,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8501,
          "final": 3.8501,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3427,
          "final": 1.3427,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 4.4733727810650885,
        "WHIP": 1.3668639053254437,
        "K9": 10.224852071005916,
        "HR9": 2.2366863905325443,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0079910665901708,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.553,
        "runs_scored": 601.0,
        "runs_allowed": 581.0,
        "run_differential": 20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1515,
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        "offense_index": 1.018,
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          "win_pct": 0.9,
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          "run_differential": 27.0
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4091,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 8.1,
          "run_differential": -28.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2383,
        "offense_edge": 0.018,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1158,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0147,
        "run_prevention": 0.9679,
        "strikeout": 1.0164
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 24.6,
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            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.1595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5064,
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            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.3796,
            "regression_edge": 1.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4071,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2193
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.93139033941883,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.4834260359225,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.93139033941883,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9314,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2193,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5665,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0031,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0003,
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          "walk_factor": 0.972,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.042,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_id": 33709,
            "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 98,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 98,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 235,
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              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 68,
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              "era_rank": 52.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 120,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 18,
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              "hld_rank": 330,
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              "ip_rank": 44,
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              "h_rank": 9,
              "er_value": 78.0,
              "er_rank": 6,
              "hr_value": 31.0,
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              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 36,
              "k_value": 146.0,
              "k_rank": 22,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.591241,
              "k_per_9_rank": 13,
              "whip_value": 1.416,
              "whip_rank": 52.0,
              "war_value": 1.61,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
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            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0683,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0311,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_PHI@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_PHI@SEA

home

George Kirby

True

5.1

7.2

-4

5/6

1/1

4/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3571428571428572,
      "IP": 140.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0359,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0031,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9671,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 1.0192,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.337,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 133,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.125,
            "WHIP": 1.7083,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79167,
            "H_per_IP": 1.375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.54167,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 891.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 89.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3393,
            "WHIP": 1.4286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48214,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76786,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16071
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 140.0,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 157.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 587.0,
            "Pitches": 2190.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7083,
            "R": 2.875,
            "H": 6.5417,
            "BB": 1.375,
            "SO": 4.875,
            "HR": 0.7083,
            "BF": 24.4583,
            "Pitches": 91.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1786,
            "WHIP": 1.3571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12143
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.164,
        "predicted_H": 6.445,
        "predicted_BB": 1.527,
        "predicted_SO": 3.839,
        "predicted_HR": 0.98,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3818,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5064
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.164,
          "final": 3.9403,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.445,
          "final": 5.834,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.527,
          "final": 1.3042,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.839,
          "final": 3.9071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.98,
          "final": 0.9885,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3818,
          "final": 5.3818,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5064,
          "final": 1.5064,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 68,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.339285714285714,
        "WHIP": 1.4285714285714286,
        "K9": 6.910714285714286,
        "HR9": 1.4464285714285714,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9944489596586408,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "player_name": "George Kirby",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4773,
        "runs_scored": 522.0,
        "runs_allowed": 576.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4091,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9545,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3636,
        "offense_index": 0.8842,
        "defense_index": 1.025,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 8.1,
          "run_differential": -28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0346
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.553,
        "runs_scored": 601.0,
        "runs_allowed": 581.0,
        "run_differential": 20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1515,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.553,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4015,
        "offense_index": 1.018,
        "defense_index": 1.0162,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 27.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2037
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2383,
        "offense_edge": -0.1158,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.018,
        "defense_strength": 0.025,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0162,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9905,
        "run_prevention": 1.0123,
        "strikeout": 0.9914
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669923",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669923",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 564.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.337,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5255,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3261,
            "whiff_percent": 21.6,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.16,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1375,
            "regression_edge": 0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5214,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1178
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669923",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.95180614765201,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.8919829070005,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.95180614765201,
                "release_spin_rate": 2266.8919829070005,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.9518,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.892,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1178,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8417,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0359,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0031,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9671,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
          "homer_factor": 1.0192,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669923",
            "espn_id": 42406,
            "player_name": "George Kirby",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 133,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 133,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 295,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 19,
              "era_value": 4.1785,
              "era_rank": 45.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 140.0,
              "ip_rank": 35,
              "h_value": 157.0,
              "h_rank": 4,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 26,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 51,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 116,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 56,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.5214286,
              "k_per_9_rank": 43,
              "whip_value": 1.3571,
              "whip_rank": 47.0,
              "war_value": 1.24,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0192,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9671,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_PHI@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_PIT@SD

away

Paul Skenes

True

5.1

6.0

-4

5/3

0/0

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.949640287769784,
      "WHIP": 1.143884892086331,
      "IP": 139.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.346,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5165,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9561,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0631,
      "walk_factor": 0.96,
      "homer_factor": 0.9813,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.277,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 66,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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            "IP": 23.2,
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            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
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            "R": 3.6,
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.71831,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01408,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6338,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.39437,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "IP": 51.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8235,
            "WHIP": 1.5098,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64706,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2549,
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        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 139.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9496,
            "WHIP": 1.1439,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43885,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84892,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29496,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23022,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10072
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 2.368,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4738
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 3.036,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.898,
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        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.3778,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 6.179,
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.578,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5414,
          "final": 5.5414,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.4738,
          "final": 1.4738,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 33,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.823529411764706,
        "WHIP": 1.5098039215686274,
        "K9": 11.294117647058824,
        "HR9": 0.8823529411764706,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1634571879499573,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4812,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 630.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1955,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9323,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7368,
        "offense_index": 1.1028,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 1.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5379,
        "runs_scored": 566.0,
        "runs_allowed": 551.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1136,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2879,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1742,
        "offense_index": 0.9587,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0812
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0731,
        "offense_edge": 0.1028,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0413,
        "defense_strength": -0.0558,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0715,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9971,
        "run_prevention": 1.0026,
        "strikeout": 1.0011
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694973",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694973",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 552.0,
            "k_percent": 29.8,
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            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.277,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.1359,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9975,
            "whiff_percent": 28.5,
            "swing_percent": 51.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4542,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7639,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
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            "whiff_edge": 0.4643,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.152
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694973",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.56124288966909,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.685774056805,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.56124288966909,
                "release_spin_rate": 2107.685774056805,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5612,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.6858,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.152,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.0854,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5165,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9561,
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          "walk_factor": 0.96,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "694973",
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            "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
            "team": "PIT",
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            "espn_rank": 66,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 66,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 235,
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              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 49,
              "era_value": 3.9496,
              "era_rank": 38.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 7,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "ip_value": 139.0,
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              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 61,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 41,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 85,
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              "k_value": 171.0,
              "k_rank": 8,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.071942,
              "k_per_9_rank": 5,
              "whip_value": 1.1438,
              "whip_rank": 22.0,
              "war_value": 2.05,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9561,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_PIT@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_PIT@SD

home

Michael King

True

6.0

7.0

-1

5/5

2/2

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.174496644295302,
      "IP": 149.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.731,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0828,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9917,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 29,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
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            "Pitches": 95.6
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1798,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4382,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8427,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23596
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 936.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.193,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38596,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40351,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87719,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14035
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        },
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          "games": 26,
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            "IP": 149.0,
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            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 117.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 128.0,
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            "Pitches": 2410.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1538,
            "R": 2.2308,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.2308,
            "SO": 4.9231,
            "HR": 0.6923,
            "BF": 23.4615,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3826,
            "WHIP": 1.1745,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37584,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78523,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38926,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12081
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.472,
        "predicted_H": 4.98,
        "predicted_BB": 2.09,
        "predicted_SO": 5.098,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.8051,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2093
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.472,
          "final": 1.8565,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.98,
          "final": 4.9884,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.09,
          "final": 2.0524,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 5.8933,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 1.019,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.8051,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2093,
          "final": 1.2093,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 8,
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        "K9": 7.894736842105262,
        "HR9": 1.263157894736842,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8911790661749315,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "data_weight": 0.8387,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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    },
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.9793,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0643,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0586
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "player_name": "Michael King",
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            "espn_rank": 29,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
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              "ip_value": 149.0,
              "ip_rank": 16,
              "h_value": 117.0,
              "h_rank": 66,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 58,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 38,
              "bb_value": 58.0,
              "bb_rank": 12,
              "k_value": 128.0,
              "k_rank": 41,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.7315435,
              "k_per_9_rank": 69,
              "whip_value": 1.1744,
              "whip_rank": 27.0,
              "war_value": 2.97,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0008,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9917,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_PIT@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_TB@DET

away

Casey Legumina

True

5.0

2.1

-8

-1

5/1

1/0

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6745562130177514,
      "WHIP": 1.2248520710059172,
      "IP": 56.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 43,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.6,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.6,
      "last_start_IP": 1.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.158,
      "sample_weight": 0.888,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0134,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9602,
      "walk_factor": 0.9414,
      "homer_factor": 1.0008,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 307,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 56.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.675,
      "season_WHIP": 1.225,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.306,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6934,
        "prior_weight": 0.3066
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668984",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 43,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 27.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.4,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 23.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 54.0,
            "Pitches": 213.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.3,
            "BB": 0.1,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 21.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.0769,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.07692,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 43,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 896.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.5349,
            "R": 0.5349,
            "H": 1.3023,
            "BB": 0.3023,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.0698,
            "BF": 5.5116,
            "Pitches": 20.8372
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6746,
            "WHIP": 1.2249,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40828,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99408,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76331,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05325
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.023,
        "predicted_H": 2.476,
        "predicted_BB": 0.516,
        "predicted_SO": 2.558,
        "predicted_HR": 0.129,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7469,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2178
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4795,
      "form_weight": 0.5205,
      "form_reliability": 0.6934,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6934,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.023,
          "final": 1.012,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.476,
          "final": 3.6864,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.516,
          "final": 0.7481,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.558,
          "final": 4.2086,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.129,
          "final": 0.5467,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7469,
          "final": 3.7469,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2178,
          "final": 1.2178,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 13.0,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 13,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 4.153846153846154,
        "WHIP": 1.076923076923077,
        "K9": 8.307692307692308,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9850575889805393,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 11.306,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6934,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668984",
      "player_name": "Casey Legumina",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.5954,
        "runs_scored": 591.0,
        "runs_allowed": 544.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3588,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5115,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1527,
        "offense_index": 1.0089,
        "defense_index": 1.0768,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0902
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 61,
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        "win_pct": 0.4656,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 518.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5344,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4885,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9542,
        "offense_index": 1.0038,
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        "current_streak": "L6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1035
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1937,
        "offense_edge": 0.0089,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0038,
        "defense_strength": 0.0768,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1309,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0099,
        "run_prevention": 0.9832,
        "strikeout": 1.0055
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668984",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668984",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 222.0,
            "k_percent": 18.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6764,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3787,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1609,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2846,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.55,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0055
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668984",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 17,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 17,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.94667005905687,
              "release_spin_rate": 2320.9697362465054,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9467,
              "release_spin_rate": 2320.9697,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0055,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0396,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.158,
          "sample_weight": 0.888,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0134,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9602,
          "walk_factor": 0.9414,
          "homer_factor": 1.0008,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "668984",
            "espn_id": 4346117,
            "player_name": "Casey Legumina",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 307,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 307,
              "gp_value": 44.0,
              "gp_rank": 114,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 208,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 3.994,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 293,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 299,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 7.0,
              "hld_rank": 119,
              "ip_value": 56.1,
              "ip_rank": 223,
              "h_value": 57.0,
              "h_rank": 184,
              "er_value": 25.0,
              "er_rank": 216,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 346,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 370,
              "k_value": 43.0,
              "k_rank": 303,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.8698225,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.2603,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.24,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0007,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9647,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_TB@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_TB@DET

home

Jackson Jobe

True

4.2

4.1

-1

-2

6/4

2/3

3/4

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.3571428571428572,
      "IP": 14.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.357,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0303,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9749,
      "walk_factor": 0.991,
      "homer_factor": 1.0728,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.353,
      "xwoba": 0.378,
      "barrel_percent": 12.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.5,
      "whiff_percent": 19.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 341,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 61.0,
            "Pitches": 231.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 3.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.3333,
            "Pitches": 77.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 61.0,
            "Pitches": 231.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 3.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.3333,
            "Pitches": 77.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 61.0,
            "Pitches": 231.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 3.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.3333,
            "Pitches": 77.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.445,
        "predicted_H": 4.804,
        "predicted_BB": 1.772,
        "predicted_SO": 4.316,
        "predicted_HR": 0.711,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5143,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.349
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6141,
      "form_weight": 0.3859,
      "form_reliability": 0.375,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.445,
          "final": 2.7858,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.804,
          "final": 5.5384,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.772,
          "final": 1.912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.316,
          "final": 3.5079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.711,
          "final": 0.2744,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5143,
          "final": 4.5143,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.349,
          "final": 1.349,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 14.0,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 14,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 11,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.3571428571428572,
        "K9": 7.071428571428571,
        "HR9": 1.2857142857142858,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0049108969187424,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.375,
          "prior_weight": 0.625
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4656,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 518.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5344,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4885,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9542,
        "offense_index": 1.0038,
        "defense_index": 1.1309,
        "current_streak": "L6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 1,
          "losses": 9,
          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1035
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.5954,
        "runs_scored": 591.0,
        "runs_allowed": 544.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3588,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5115,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1527,
        "offense_index": 1.0089,
        "defense_index": 1.0768,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0902
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1937,
        "offense_edge": 0.0038,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0089,
        "defense_strength": 0.1309,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0768,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9958,
        "run_prevention": 0.998,
        "strikeout": 0.9935
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695549",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695549",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 38.0,
            "k_percent": 18.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.353,
            "xwoba": 0.378,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0987,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9757,
            "whiff_percent": 19.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.0781,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4946,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -1.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8214,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.13
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695549",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.16868100494861,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.427959649791,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.16868100494861,
                "release_spin_rate": 2501.427959649791,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.1687,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.428,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.13,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9284,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.357,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0303,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9749,
          "walk_factor": 0.991,
          "homer_factor": 1.0728,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695549",
            "espn_id": 4872647,
            "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 341,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 341,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 671,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 244,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 4.5,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 386,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 402,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 14.0,
              "ip_rank": 546,
              "h_value": 14.0,
              "h_rank": 551,
              "er_value": 7.0,
              "er_rank": 566,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 483,
              "bb_value": 5.0,
              "bb_rank": 592,
              "k_value": 11.0,
              "k_rank": 548,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0714283,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.3571,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0136,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0136,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0328,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9887,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_TB@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_TEX@CHW

away

Jacob deGrom

True

5.0

3.2

-4

2/6

1/5

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7657894736842104,
      "WHIP": 1.1289473684210527,
      "IP": 126.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.278,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2891,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9754,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0946,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0602,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.285,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.9,
      "whiff_percent": 33.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 62,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 416.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 83.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7969,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42188,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35938,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04688
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.68,
            "WHIP": 1.34,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 126.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 111.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 157.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 518.0,
            "Pitches": 2118.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2083,
            "R": 2.2083,
            "H": 4.625,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 6.5417,
            "HR": 0.7083,
            "BF": 21.5833,
            "Pitches": 88.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7658,
            "WHIP": 1.1289,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41842,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87632,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25263,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13421
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.229,
        "predicted_H": 4.913,
        "predicted_BB": 1.65,
        "predicted_SO": 6.096,
        "predicted_HR": 0.424,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1727,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3654
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.229,
          "final": 1.2865,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.913,
          "final": 3.6813,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.65,
          "final": 1.3752,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.096,
          "final": 6.0554,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.424,
          "final": 0.2447,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1727,
          "final": 4.1727,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3654,
          "final": 1.3654,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 68,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.68,
        "WHIP": 1.34,
        "K9": 12.24,
        "HR9": 0.72,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.030565031087212,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 532.0,
        "runs_allowed": 569.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2803,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0303,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3106,
        "offense_index": 0.903,
        "defense_index": 1.0354,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0005
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5191,
        "runs_scored": 620.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2595,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7328,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4733,
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        "defense_index": 0.9978,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0482
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0477,
        "offense_edge": -0.097,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0604,
        "defense_strength": 0.0354,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0022,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9967,
        "run_prevention": 1.0085,
        "strikeout": 0.9937
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "594798",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "594798",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.8519,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0277,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0961,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -1.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.1786,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1788
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "594798",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.0397745860885,
              "release_spin_rate": 2438.3276886434514,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.0397745860885,
                "release_spin_rate": 2438.3276886434514,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.0398,
              "release_spin_rate": 2438.3277,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1788,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.2769,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2891,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9754,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "594798",
            "espn_id": 32796,
            "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 62,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 62,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 295,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 59,
              "era_value": 3.7657,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 37,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 126.2,
              "ip_rank": 59,
              "h_value": 111.0,
              "h_rank": 80,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 73,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 51,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 121,
              "k_value": 157.0,
              "k_rank": 18,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.155263,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8,
              "whip_value": 1.1289,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.11,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9754,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9754,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0602,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0946,
            "adjusted": 8
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 8",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +8; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_TEX@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260825

20260825_TEX@CHW

home

Anthony Kay

True

5.1

4.2

-2

5/6

3/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "IP": 127.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.014,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
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    },
    "savant": {
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9694,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.333,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 72,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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      "player_id": "641743",
      "report_date": "20260825",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
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            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 449.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
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            "H": 5.8,
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            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 89.8
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1034,
            "WHIP": 1.1724,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17241,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06897
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 824.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5294,
            "WHIP": 1.2353,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39216,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29412,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80392,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09804
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.1,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 565.0,
            "Pitches": 2246.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1538,
            "R": 2.3077,
            "H": 4.7692,
            "BB": 1.7308,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6154,
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            "Pitches": 86.3846
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9581,
            "WHIP": 1.3272,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43979,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97382,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3534,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12565
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.123,
        "predicted_H": 5.171,
        "predicted_BB": 1.432,
        "predicted_SO": 4.445,
        "predicted_HR": 0.529,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6008,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2445
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.123,
          "final": 2.9079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.171,
          "final": 5.0995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.432,
          "final": 2.0877,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.445,
          "final": 5.5134,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.529,
          "final": 1.1441,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6008,
          "final": 3.6008,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2445,
          "final": 1.2445,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.5294117647058827,
        "WHIP": 1.235294117647059,
        "K9": 7.23529411764706,
        "HR9": 0.8823529411764707,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8985062075578005,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5191,
        "runs_scored": 620.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2595,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7328,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4733,
        "offense_index": 1.0604,
        "defense_index": 0.9978,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0482
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 532.0,
        "runs_allowed": 569.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2803,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0303,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3106,
        "offense_index": 0.903,
        "defense_index": 1.0354,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0005
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0477,
        "offense_edge": 0.0604,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.097,
        "defense_strength": -0.0022,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0354,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0057,
        "run_prevention": 0.9823,
        "strikeout": 1.0092
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 531.0,
            "k_percent": 18.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.333,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4246,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3173,
            "whiff_percent": 23.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9078,
            "whiff_percent": 25.25,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4098,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2589,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.25,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0127
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641743",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.07512309635388,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.5022496307865,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.07512309635388,
                "release_spin_rate": 2281.5022496307865,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0751,
              "release_spin_rate": 2281.5022,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0127,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.091,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3072,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0261,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9694,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.0509,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641743",
            "espn_id": 40947,
            "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 72,
            "espn_total_ranked": 830,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 72,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 235,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 83,
              "era_value": 3.9581,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 96,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 330,
              "ip_value": 127.1,
              "ip_rank": 58,
              "h_value": 124.0,
              "h_rank": 47,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 58,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 64,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 42,
              "k_value": 104.0,
              "k_rank": 78,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3507853,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.3272,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.96,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0509,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9694,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260825_TEX@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}