Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260824 · dates 20260824 · generated 2026-08-25T06:00:16.937270+00:00

7-3
Winner picks · 70.0%
20
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
9/20
Starter ER within ±1
16/20
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
20260824101007310Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied10
applied games: 10formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored10
available games: 8
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X10
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support10
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1010
configured window: 10last 10 games: 10observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented10
settled games: 10metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2988.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55452.7%75.0%-22.3%underconfident
0.55-0.60256.5%50.0%6.5%overconfident
0.60-0.65363.2%100.0%-36.8%underconfident
0.80-1.00186.1%0.0%86.1%overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml102.7483.41464.456970.0%0.00.0
variance_applied102.753.54.550.0%0.0020.0431
enhanced_prediction102.93.24.670.0%0.1520.1431
embedded_savant_run_environment102.93.24.670.0%0.1520.1431
fundamental_edge_target_review102.93.24.670.0%0.1520.1431
capped_target102.93.24.670.0%0.1520.1431
simulation_result102.93.24.670.0%0.1520.1431
published_final102.93.24.670.0%0.1520.1431
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 10,
  "team_run_mae": 2.9,
  "total_run_mae": 3.2,
  "margin_mae": 4.6,
  "winner_hits": 7,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.7,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.152,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1431
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=3

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction2.03
embedded_savant_run_environment1.03
fundamental_edge_target_review0.03
capped_target0.03
simulation_result0.03
variance_applied-0.15213
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.1521,
      "games": 3
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=7

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction1.07
embedded_savant_run_environment1.07
fundamental_edge_target_review0.07
capped_target0.07
simulation_result0.07
variance_applied-1.17737
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 7
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.1773,
      "games": 7
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=10

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)1010.0
[0.525, 0.550)3301.0
[0.550, 0.600)2110.5
[0.600, 1.010)4310.75
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=10

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260824100.59947.70.7
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260824",
      "sample_size": 10,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5994,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.7,
      "accuracy": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=10

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v10model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v310730.7
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 10,
      "hits": 7,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260824_BOS@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickBOS
Published scoreBOS 4 - 2 MIA
Final confidence64.6%
Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=277
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6136
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.309704462252337-4.0499471364173205Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-2Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.292444,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.646222,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.353778,
    "away_win_probability": 0.646222
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.292444,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.646222,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5632,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.61785,
    "published_confidence": 0.646222,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6533,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.54,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6136
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.034134190044313235
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03359383282980018
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03191841525154368
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031413134594976036
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03129417137257748
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10234247807653453,
      "1": 0.16566735597737697,
      "2": 0.2091040404212142,
      "3": 0.20579384390919067,
      "4": 0.15792351612861624,
      "5": 0.09449431947385419,
      "6": 0.044086849990147,
      "7": 0.016038247401773065,
      "8": 0.0045493486212931184
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049543591680091266,
      "1": 0.08409284604381646,
      "2": 0.12236471051111783,
      "3": 0.15264370400135735,
      "4": 0.1632402223101674,
      "5": 0.14965837728213785,
      "6": 0.11762522281211711,
      "7": 0.07925477895341548,
      "8": 0.04578002565782667,
      "9": 0.022670034300221555,
      "10": 0.009623961910112833,
      "11": 0.0035025245376180633
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 MIA",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 MIA",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0245,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.54,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6136,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.6462,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6536,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6462,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6136,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.54,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0245,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.309704462252337,
      "home_runs": 4.0499471364173205,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_CHC@ARI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCHC
Published scoreCHC 5 - 3 ARI
Final confidence60.4%
Calibrationraw 62.3% → blended 59.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=277
H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5524
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.0868502722386415-3.5130323841702324Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.207444,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.603722,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.396278,
    "away_win_probability": 0.603722
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.207444,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.603722,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6225,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5632,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.59285,
    "published_confidence": 0.603722,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0477,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0477,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8779,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.052,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5524
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032838048595539945
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03257475619366425
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030615883224796168
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0303704079369955
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030307820488588242
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09707185492111939,
      "1": 0.15789180279975892,
      "2": 0.20218121154218194,
      "3": 0.20381538422745388,
      "4": 0.1617514138362092,
      "5": 0.10105880652960741,
      "6": 0.049706730824224984,
      "7": 0.019247361037552323,
      "8": 0.005867351963003208,
      "9": 0.001408082318888752
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04746032840022044,
      "1": 0.08070731962626827,
      "2": 0.11809783224506819,
      "3": 0.14870232001115932,
      "4": 0.1611166336634007,
      "5": 0.1502137993206119,
      "6": 0.12051083589741471,
      "7": 0.08319345935325052,
      "8": 0.049419583937883656,
      "9": 0.02526130617059236,
      "10": 0.011111158350959022,
      "11": 0.004205423023170894
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 ARI",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 ARI",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0878,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.298,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5524,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.6037,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6509,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6037,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5524,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.052,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0878,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.0868502722386415,
      "home_runs": 3.5130323841702324,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_CIN@SF

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCIN
Published scoreCIN 4 - 2 SF
Final confidence57.1%
Calibrationraw 67.4% → blended 63.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 58.6% · weight 50.0% · n=227
H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0484
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.59070568909622-2.4570406454008396Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied6-2Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.14105,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.570525,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.429475,
    "away_win_probability": 0.570525
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.14105,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CIN wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 2 SF",
    "confidence": 0.57052535,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.673691,
    "sample_size": 227,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5859,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.629796,
    "published_confidence": 0.570525,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0205,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0078,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0484
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026806127272081946
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02633898342363383
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02620206521758678
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02574544821137791
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023750984749173278
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06406259171372373,
      "1": 0.10734898653847605,
      "2": 0.15030060457852273,
      "3": 0.1758299452848804,
      "4": 0.17186770945303104,
      "5": 0.14036701732918522,
      "6": 0.09578669503933415,
      "7": 0.05461533989190209,
      "8": 0.02601916931754059,
      "9": 0.010357180579888181,
      "10": 0.003444760273515715
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04090781585108606,
      "1": 0.0699715200950209,
      "2": 0.1041954620090868,
      "3": 0.13507929329496085,
      "4": 0.15245484623595001,
      "5": 0.14979805277741115,
      "6": 0.12813966404885002,
      "7": 0.09542748395822159,
      "8": 0.06186939154725742,
      "9": 0.03492132358173282,
      "10": 0.017160029341546087,
      "11": 0.007341044143601927,
      "12": 0.002734073115274352
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CIN 4 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "CIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CIN 4 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "CIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0947,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2407,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CIN",
      "model_winner": "CIN",
      "simulation_winner": "CIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0484,
      "winner": "CIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5705,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6331,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5705,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0484,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0947,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.59070568909622,
      "home_runs": 2.4570406454008396,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_CLE@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCLE
Published scoreCLE 4 - 2 LAA
Final confidence64.6%
Calibrationraw 70.2% → blended 63.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=277
H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.426
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.492988894950724-3.2777744463323235Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-2Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.292444,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.646222,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.353778,
    "away_win_probability": 0.646222
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.292444,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.646222,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.702157,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5632,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.632678,
    "published_confidence": 0.646222,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0545,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0545,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6145,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.076,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.426
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03608491125650647
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03434478265269864
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.034337723778696934
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032681850083671866
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03233857083873069
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10947358105600043,
      "1": 0.1760214193245611,
      "2": 0.21772913439949287,
      "3": 0.2071869547479214,
      "4": 0.1516711927210833,
      "5": 0.08541588216002337,
      "6": 0.03700573144813901,
      "7": 0.012333722950848216,
      "8": 0.003162381191930359
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052375899089204564,
      "1": 0.0886758630781784,
      "2": 0.12805887115712236,
      "3": 0.15774086801669035,
      "4": 0.16573303961378594,
      "5": 0.14852661279310178,
      "6": 0.11353500158101244,
      "7": 0.07402622039049807,
      "8": 0.041169130383739816,
      "9": 0.019529365037125754,
      "10": 0.007901960692661006,
      "11": 0.0027271681668794624
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0053,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.426,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.426,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.6462,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5622,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6462,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.426,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.076,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0053,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.492988894950724,
      "home_runs": 3.2777744463323235,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_COL@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickWAS
Published scoreCOL 3 - 4 WAS
Final confidence56.0%
Calibrationraw 73.1% → blended 64.5%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=303
H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7936
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.303648419159092-6.491799528386701Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-6Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 4 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.731213,
    "sample_size": 303,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5578,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.644507,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.667,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2382,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.032,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7936
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03126068876138295
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029627742698930343
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029284794002677268
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028485897577891925
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027755061583106224
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04543307716461333,
      "1": 0.07740100918099953,
      "2": 0.11388131720544946,
      "3": 0.14470706266384914,
      "4": 0.15880287553302702,
      "5": 0.1505075838877531,
      "6": 0.12319406724219115,
      "7": 0.08708685180125222,
      "8": 0.053167565674265185,
      "9": 0.028033178934797988,
      "10": 0.012765249564247584,
      "11": 0.0050201611475541455
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0845762029673705,
      "1": 0.13915104720128496,
      "2": 0.18440972119920312,
      "3": 0.196852158101391,
      "4": 0.169260487084196,
      "5": 0.11722764194530848,
      "6": 0.06539785573107676,
      "7": 0.029387052272724663,
      "8": 0.010636716372260442,
      "9": 0.0031011171251839405
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0764,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0847,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7936,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6437,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7936,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.032,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0764,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.303648419159092,
      "home_runs": 6.491799528386701,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_MIN@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIN
Published scoreMIN 4 - 3 OAK
Final confidence52.7%
Calibrationraw 55.7% → blended 53.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.5% · weight 50.0% · n=301
H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6834
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.385402874347451-5.151430056557965Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.053862,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526931,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.473069,
    "away_win_probability": 0.526931
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.053862,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.526931332,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.556751,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535875,
    "published_confidence": 0.526931,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0205,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1527,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.188,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6834
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03224911544998931
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03128844417757943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030678783706088383
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029764891161512395
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028106112322516915
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06858339204266845,
      "1": 0.11447993874152523,
      "2": 0.15843207739886558,
      "3": 0.18178587975414875,
      "4": 0.17293403580160427,
      "5": 0.1363967770426047,
      "6": 0.08919305531251481,
      "7": 0.04835721429308881,
      "8": 0.021736759947392277,
      "9": 0.00810086966558694
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06525728160582474,
      "1": 0.10923460410198373,
      "2": 0.15245317251964166,
      "3": 0.17740165239238453,
      "4": 0.1721170215194635,
      "5": 0.1392306819458255,
      "6": 0.09390550348517725,
      "7": 0.052807074430588706,
      "8": 0.02475928716689425,
      "9": 0.009678969762762913,
      "10": 0.0031547510694531706
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1123,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0713,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6834,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5269,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5888,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5269,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6834,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.188,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1123,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.385402874347451,
      "home_runs": 5.151430056557965,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_PHI@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickPHI
Published scorePHI 7 - 3 SEA
Final confidence86.1%
Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 73.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=651
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9119
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.213449752695225-3.629443363583662Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction7-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment7-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review7-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target7-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result7-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.72116,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.86058,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.13942,
    "away_win_probability": 0.86058
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.72116,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 7-3",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 7 - 3 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.86058,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 651,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5469,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.73345,
    "published_confidence": 0.86058,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7977,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9119
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.023514279441230312
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.022964973093980042
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.022699661854464665
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.022169385416768307
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.022137783758206728
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09116068503472483,
      "1": 0.14908606739487537,
      "2": 0.19404745095649523,
      "3": 0.2010111875632198,
      "4": 0.16571961692784715,
      "5": 0.10873491422329948,
      "6": 0.05678132410991838,
      "7": 0.023598446799796845,
      "8": 0.007805535934293357,
      "9": 0.002054771055529687
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.013152250637709171,
      "1": 0.023119435152279974,
      "2": 0.037367246249297784,
      "3": 0.05553179357473158,
      "4": 0.07588029996837208,
      "5": 0.09533516210916011,
      "6": 0.11013209775323674,
      "7": 0.11697995383383754,
      "8": 0.11424723853620014,
      "9": 0.10259275900396668,
      "10": 0.08470800216085497,
      "11": 0.06430857711828464,
      "12": 0.04489005049878909,
      "13": 0.028811642625778792,
      "14": 0.017002887306668532,
      "15": 0.009226013067157571,
      "16": 0.004603012839032535,
      "17": 0.0021115775646420513
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 7 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 7 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0257,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.124,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9119,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.8606,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.8606,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9119,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0257,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.213449752695225,
      "home_runs": 3.629443363583662,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_PIT@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickPIT
Published scorePIT 5 - 4 SD
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 55.3% → blended 53.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.5% · weight 50.0% · n=301
H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.102
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.845004673972025-3.762981468786797Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
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    "raw_confidence": 0.552836,
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    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
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  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
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      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
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      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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  },
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    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0298,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.236,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
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        "home_runs": 4,
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024150306931306206
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024079494860060786
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0492964708599018,
      "1": 0.08369189219740739,
      "2": 0.1218620575175737,
      "3": 0.1521847683965648,
      "4": 0.16300143608079573,
      "5": 0.14973703710041153,
      "6": 0.11797353738648131,
      "7": 0.07971820842761801,
      "8": 0.04620064298199652,
      "9": 0.02296445120757838,
      "10": 0.00978997729652612,
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.047180395357993905,
      "1": 0.08025146025436394,
      "2": 0.11751938037556946,
      "3": 0.1481600868800659,
      "4": 0.16081188279365657,
      "5": 0.15026928883291504,
      "6": 0.12088920097000848,
      "7": 0.08372785489537529,
      "8": 0.04992494603019992,
      "9": 0.025628927057450967,
      "10": 0.01132683118057619,
      "11": 0.0043097453718243875
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "PIT"
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    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
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    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0273,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3527,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
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    "away_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "winner_quality_edge": -0.102,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.102,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.236,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0273,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.845004673972025,
      "home_runs": 3.762981468786797,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_TB@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickTB
Published scoreTB 5 - 4 DET
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.5% · weight 50.0% · n=301
H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0068
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.996819999671574-3.372533427160897Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51255,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.667,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0955,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0955,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0385,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.052,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0068
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028017158449196822
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.027255580091722752
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026840182065586894
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026110596950491092
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      {
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        "probability": 0.024899207810158815
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05588921709184245,
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      "2": 0.13495214651017395,
      "3": 0.1636557786554775,
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      "8": 0.03597043683051933,
      "9": 0.016180797053569944,
      "10": 0.006169801873989406,
      "11": 0.0019941583155903943
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053420316743232624,
      "1": 0.09036008755521611,
      "2": 0.13012766658608507,
      "3": 0.1595458294537721,
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      "5": 0.14800811533641,
      "6": 0.11198756121514035,
      "7": 0.07214011997426198,
      "8": 0.03956459717326641,
      "9": 0.018473936700510857,
      "10": 0.007344038905980895,
      "11": 0.0024856117970212563
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0951,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.298,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0068,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5601,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0068,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.052,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0951,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.996819999671574,
      "home_runs": 3.372533427160897,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260824_TEX@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCHW
Published scoreTEX 4 - 5 CHW
Final confidence52.0%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.5% · weight 50.0% · n=301
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5955
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.999855855012985-4.434231093776511Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.040396,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520198,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.520198,
    "away_win_probability": 0.479802
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.040396,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.520198499,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51255,
    "published_confidence": 0.520198,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7223,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.36,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5955
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02822714783287561
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02762728452884521
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027197514949720565
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026619532672667617
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024900786013477286
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054345414487439375,
      "1": 0.09184929448155253,
      "2": 0.1319462430136161,
      "3": 0.16111149130284316,
      "4": 0.1672107871247675,
      "5": 0.14750622535407498,
      "6": 0.11060243612885627,
      "7": 0.07048996919749759,
      "8": 0.03818547818550236,
      "9": 0.017582370647323434,
      "10": 0.006881211608021898,
      "11": 0.0022890784685047176
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05686757316429817,
      "1": 0.09589697401822779,
      "2": 0.13683839600307784,
      "3": 0.1652242956564195,
      "4": 0.16881176339307216,
      "5": 0.1459467293049687,
      "6": 0.10676991330690593,
      "7": 0.0660946453136989,
      "8": 0.03462155146215587,
      "9": 0.01534580367548824,
      "10": 0.005755666384597135,
      "11": 0.001826688317089807
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0889,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4767,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5955,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5202,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6492,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5202,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5955,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.36,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0889,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.999855855012985,
      "home_runs": 4.434231093776511,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026082420260824_BOS@MIABOS64.6%67.2%56.3%50.0%4.0-2.04-2hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5632,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.61785,
    "published_confidence": 0.646222,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6533,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.54,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6136
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.034134190044313235
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03359383282980018
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03191841525154368
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031413134594976036
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03129417137257748
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10234247807653453,
      "1": 0.16566735597737697,
      "2": 0.2091040404212142,
      "3": 0.20579384390919067,
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2026082420260824_PIT@SDPIT53.0%55.3%51.5%50.0%5.0-4.03-2hitVariance Applied (-0.082)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.552836,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.533918,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.667,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0341,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0341,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0298,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.236,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.102
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026212567834222628
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024473119138368152
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024150306931306206
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "probability": 0.024079494860060786
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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    "away_distribution": {
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    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0273,
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      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.102,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082420260824_TB@DETTB53.0%51.0%51.5%50.0%5.0-4.04-1hitEnhanced Prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51255,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.667,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0955,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0955,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0385,
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    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0068
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028017158449196822
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.027255580091722752
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026840182065586894
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026110596950491092
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024899207810158815
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05588921709184245,
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      "11": 0.0019941583155903943
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053420316743232624,
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      "5": 0.14800811533641,
      "6": 0.11198756121514035,
      "7": 0.07214011997426198,
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      "9": 0.018473936700510857,
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      "11": 0.0024856117970212563
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0951,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.298,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0068,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082420260824_TEX@CHWCHW52.0%51.0%51.5%50.0%4.0-5.011-2missEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51255,
    "published_confidence": 0.520198,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7223,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.36,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5955
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02822714783287561
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02762728452884521
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027197514949720565
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026619532672667617
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024900786013477286
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054345414487439375,
      "1": 0.09184929448155253,
      "2": 0.1319462430136161,
      "3": 0.16111149130284316,
      "4": 0.1672107871247675,
      "5": 0.14750622535407498,
      "6": 0.11060243612885627,
      "7": 0.07048996919749759,
      "8": 0.03818547818550236,
      "9": 0.017582370647323434,
      "10": 0.006881211608021898,
      "11": 0.0022890784685047176
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05686757316429817,
      "1": 0.09589697401822779,
      "2": 0.13683839600307784,
      "3": 0.1652242956564195,
      "4": 0.16881176339307216,
      "5": 0.1459467293049687,
      "6": 0.10676991330690593,
      "7": 0.0660946453136989,
      "8": 0.03462155146215587,
      "9": 0.01534580367548824,
      "10": 0.005755666384597135,
      "11": 0.001826688317089807
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0889,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4767,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5955,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H
{
  "mae": 2.25,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.05
}
R
{
  "mae": 1.95,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.05
}
ER
{
  "mae": 1.75,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.15
}
BB
{
  "mae": 1.75,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.05
}
SO
{
  "mae": 2.25,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.75
}
HR
{
  "mae": 0.8,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0
}
IP_outs
{
  "mae_outs": 2.25,
  "mae_innings": 0.75,
  "bias_outs": -0.25
}

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

DateGameSidePred starterActual starterMatchPred IPActual IPΔ outsPred ERActual ERΔ ERH P/ABB P/ASO P/AAll context
2026082420260824_BOS@MIAawayRanger SuarezRanger SuarezTrue5.05.000112/42/44/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4147058823529415,
      "WHIP": 1.1823529411764706,
      "IP": 113.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.152,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2585,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.978,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9989,
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
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      "season_WHIP": 1.182,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
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    "player_form_blend": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          },
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        },
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      "blend_segments": {},
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.1052,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "624133",
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      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7615,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_allowed": 552.0,
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          "run_differential": -2.0
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "624133",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "624133",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.2121
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "624133",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.05893354315086,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 66,
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                "release_speed": 86.05893354315086,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.0589,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.5147,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.1823,
              "whip_rank": null,
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9133,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_BOS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_BOS@MIAhomeSandy AlcantaraSandy AlcantaraTrue6.17.0221-15/64/27/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
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      "WHIP": 1.1773584905660377,
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      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 6.543,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 22,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
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      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63636,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
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            "BB": 20.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
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            "BB": 2.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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            "SO": 131.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4642,
            "WHIP": 1.1774,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38491,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91132,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26604,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74151,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10189
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.81,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.947,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0839
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 5.1302,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 6.749999999999999,
        "HR9": 0.8099999999999999,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7866298590803671,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5115,
        "runs_scored": 573.0,
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        "run_differential": 21.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1603,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
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        "runs_scored": 589.0,
        "runs_allowed": 490.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7615,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5308,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0242,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "645261",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "645261",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "645261",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 103,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1475,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0538,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1178,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.99,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9526,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9411,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "645261",
            "espn_id": 35241,
            "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 22,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 22,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 220,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 1,
              "qs_value": 20.0,
              "qs_rank": 1,
              "era_value": 3.4641,
              "era_rank": 24.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 5,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 176.2,
              "ip_rank": 1,
              "h_value": 161.0,
              "h_rank": 3,
              "er_value": 68.0,
              "er_rank": 16,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 36,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 131.0,
              "k_rank": 37,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.673585,
              "k_per_9_rank": 999,
              "whip_value": 1.1773,
              "whip_rank": 28.0,
              "war_value": 3.08,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9411,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9526,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 123,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_BOS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_CHC@ARIawayKevin GausmanKevin GausmanTrue5.27.0420-21/35/12/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
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      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 179,
      "total_ranked": null,
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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          },
          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.0186,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99767,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12558
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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          },
          {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5725,
        "runs_scored": 684.0,
        "runs_allowed": 569.0,
        "run_differential": 115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8779,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2214,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3435,
        "offense_index": 1.166,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5267,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 589.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0687,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5649,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4962,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0311
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1033,
        "offense_edge": 0.166,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0194,
        "defense_strength": 0.031,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.004,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0043,
        "run_prevention": 0.9948,
        "strikeout": 1.0015
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.2822,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4214,
            "whiff_percent": 27.4,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0127,
            "command_and_miss": 0.325,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0379
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.1682726138402,
              "release_spin_rate": 2002.91926935879,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.1682726138402,
                "release_spin_rate": 2002.91926935879,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1683,
              "release_spin_rate": 2002.9193,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0379,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2709,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1057,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.991,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.02,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.0095,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592332",
            "espn_id": 32667,
            "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 179,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 179,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 234,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 9,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 24,
              "era_value": 4.5837,
              "era_rank": 50.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 92,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 5,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 143.1,
              "ip_rank": 27,
              "h_value": 146.0,
              "h_rank": 9,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 9,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 36,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 67,
              "k_value": 143.0,
              "k_rank": 26,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.97907,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.2976,
              "whip_rank": 43.0,
              "war_value": 0.9,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.991,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.991,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0095,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_CHC@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_CHC@ARIhomeMerrill KellyMerrill KellyTrue4.25.2353-26/53/33/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.372093023255814,
      "WHIP": 1.5193798449612403,
      "IP": 129.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.609,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.1707,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0995,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.936,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.2064,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 14.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.366,
      "xwoba": 0.399,
      "barrel_percent": 12.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 698,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3947,
            "WHIP": 1.6974,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06579,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.63158,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 87.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8937,
            "WHIP": 1.5187,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54375,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20625
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 129.0,
            "ER": 77.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 565.0,
            "Pitches": 2079.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.3478,
            "R": 3.4783,
            "H": 6.0435,
            "BB": 2.4783,
            "SO": 3.6522,
            "HR": 1.1304,
            "BF": 24.5652,
            "Pitches": 90.3913
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3721,
            "WHIP": 1.5194,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5969,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07752,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44186,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65116,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20155
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.194,
        "predicted_H": 5.484,
        "predicted_BB": 2.694,
        "predicted_SO": 4.048,
        "predicted_HR": 0.932,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.46,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5532
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.194,
          "final": 3.9624,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.484,
          "final": 5.7035,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.694,
          "final": 2.8242,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.048,
          "final": 3.6021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.932,
          "final": 0.9609,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.46,
          "final": 5.46,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5532,
          "final": 1.5532,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.89375,
        "WHIP": 1.5187499999999998,
        "K9": 6.75,
        "HR9": 1.85625,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0595829840803672,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5267,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 589.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0687,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5649,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4962,
        "offense_index": 1.0194,
        "defense_index": 0.996,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0311
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5725,
        "runs_scored": 684.0,
        "runs_allowed": 569.0,
        "run_differential": 115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8779,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2214,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3435,
        "offense_index": 1.166,
        "defense_index": 1.031,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1344
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1033,
        "offense_edge": 0.0194,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.166,
        "defense_strength": -0.004,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.031,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9891,
        "run_prevention": 1.0321,
        "strikeout": 0.9836
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "518876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "518876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 513.0,
            "k_percent": 14.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.366,
            "xwoba": 0.399,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2521,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0057,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.5885,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7079,
            "regression_edge": -0.9429,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.5,
            "barrel_edge": -1.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5714,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0354
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "518876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.2138630197874,
              "release_spin_rate": 2318.4380832864795,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.2138630197874,
                "release_spin_rate": 2318.4380832864795,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2139,
              "release_spin_rate": 2318.4381,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0354,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2527,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.1707,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0995,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.936,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.2064,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.033,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "518876",
            "espn_id": 32968,
            "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 698,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 698,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 312,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 60,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 73,
              "era_value": 5.372,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 5,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 129.0,
              "ip_rank": 56,
              "h_value": 139.0,
              "h_rank": 15,
              "er_value": 77.0,
              "er_rank": 5,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 6,
              "bb_value": 57.0,
              "bb_rank": 13,
              "k_value": 84.0,
              "k_rank": 117,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.860465,
              "k_per_9_rank": 56,
              "whip_value": 1.5193,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0995,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0995,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.2,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_CHC@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_CIN@SFawayChase BurnsChase BurnsTrue6.03.2-72531/92/17/5
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.514705882352941,
      "WHIP": 1.1102941176470589,
      "IP": 136.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5667,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9518,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 0.9668,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.27,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 31.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 5,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 136.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.515,
      "season_WHIP": 1.11,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695505",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8588,
            "WHIP": 1.1294,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03529
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 945.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 94.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.253,
            "WHIP": 1.247,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8494,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39759,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15663,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 136.0,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 103.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 159.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 548.0,
            "Pitches": 2238.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.5833,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 4.2917,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.625,
            "HR": 0.5417,
            "BF": 22.8333,
            "Pitches": 93.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5147,
            "WHIP": 1.1103,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75735,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16912,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09559
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.037,
        "predicted_H": 4.818,
        "predicted_BB": 2.033,
        "predicted_SO": 6.593,
        "predicted_HR": 0.431,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2021,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1969
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.037,
          "final": 2.0214,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.818,
          "final": 3.2036,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.033,
          "final": 2.019,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.593,
          "final": 6.3423,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.431,
          "final": 0.2488,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2021,
          "final": 3.2021,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1969,
          "final": 1.1969,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.3973509933774837,
        "WHIP": 1.2119205298013247,
        "K9": 10.192052980132452,
        "HR9": 0.5364238410596027,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8835673590803672,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695505",
      "player_name": "Chase Burns",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
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              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 1.0,
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            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4733,
        "runs_scored": 537.0,
        "runs_allowed": 631.0,
        "run_differential": -94.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7176,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0992,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8168,
        "offense_index": 0.9154,
        "defense_index": 0.9297,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1808
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 523.0,
        "runs_allowed": 603.0,
        "run_differential": -80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6154,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0231,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6385,
        "offense_index": 0.8984,
        "defense_index": 0.9654,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2656
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0848,
        "offense_edge": -0.0846,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1016,
        "defense_strength": -0.0703,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0346,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0053,
        "run_prevention": 0.9865,
        "strikeout": 1.0107
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695505",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695505",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 518.0,
            "k_percent": 29.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.274,
            "xwoba": 0.27,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5583,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6168,
            "whiff_percent": 31.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5915,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7836,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9143,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2543
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695505",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.38654324653888,
              "release_spin_rate": 2640.7238055362604,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.38654324653888,
                "release_spin_rate": 2640.7238055362604,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.3865,
              "release_spin_rate": 2640.7238,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2543,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.8164,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5667,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9518,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 0.9668,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695505",
            "espn_id": 4927516,
            "player_name": "Chase Burns",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 5,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 5,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 292,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 40,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 37,
              "era_value": 2.5147,
              "era_rank": 5.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 4,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 297,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 136.0,
              "ip_rank": 43,
              "h_value": 103.0,
              "h_rank": 88,
              "er_value": 38.0,
              "er_rank": 139,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 102,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 26,
              "k_value": 159.0,
              "k_rank": 13,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.522059,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8,
              "whip_value": 1.1102,
              "whip_rank": 16.0,
              "war_value": 5.03,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9518,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9518,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9668,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 8",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +8."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_CIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_CIN@SFhomeCarson WhisenhuntCarson WhisenhuntTrue4.12.2-540-47/22/18/3
Last 10 before this game (7 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 7.03125,
      "WHIP": 1.84375,
      "IP": 32.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.571,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4735,
      "sample_weight": 0.52,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0402,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
      "walk_factor": 1.0406,
      "homer_factor": 1.0694,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.0,
      "bb_percent": 13.1,
      "woba": 0.382,
      "xwoba": 0.378,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.7,
      "whiff_percent": 28.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 788,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687931",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 398.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.8594,
            "WHIP": 2.0625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.98438,
            "H_per_IP": 1.40625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79688,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 153.0,
            "Pitches": 570.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5714,
            "R": 3.7143,
            "H": 5.5714,
            "BB": 2.8571,
            "SO": 3.2857,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 21.8571,
            "Pitches": 81.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0312,
            "WHIP": 1.8438,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78125,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15625
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 153.0,
            "Pitches": 570.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5714,
            "R": 3.7143,
            "H": 5.5714,
            "BB": 2.8571,
            "SO": 3.2857,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 21.8571,
            "Pitches": 81.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0312,
            "WHIP": 1.8438,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78125,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71875,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.7318,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 20,
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        "HR": 5,
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        "WHIP": 1.84375,
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        "HR9": 1.40625,
        "games_pitched": 7,
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        "struggling_form": true
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.308176734080367,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2,
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          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687931",
      "player_name": "Carson Whisenhunt",
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      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 523.0,
        "runs_allowed": 603.0,
        "run_differential": -80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6154,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0231,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6385,
        "offense_index": 0.8984,
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        "recent": {
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 131,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4733,
        "runs_scored": 537.0,
        "runs_allowed": 631.0,
        "run_differential": -94.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7176,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0992,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8168,
        "offense_index": 0.9154,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -18.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1808
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.1016,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0846,
        "defense_strength": -0.0346,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0703,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.999,
        "run_prevention": 0.9942,
        "strikeout": 1.0042
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687931",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687931",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 15.0,
            "bb_percent": 13.1,
            "woba": 0.382,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 82.0546,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.3731,
            "whiff_percent": 28.0,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.3854,
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            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -1.4143,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687931",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.19700184278912,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 81,
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                "release_speed": 87.19700184278912,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.197,
              "release_spin_rate": 2172.2024,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0595,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4735,
          "sample_weight": 0.52,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0402,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Carson Whisenhunt",
            "team": "SF",
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            "espn_rank": 788,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 7.0,
              "gp_rank": 559,
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              "era_value": 7.0312,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 224,
              "l_value": 4.0,
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              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "ip_value": 32.0,
              "ip_rank": 395,
              "h_value": 39.0,
              "h_rank": 303,
              "er_value": 25.0,
              "er_rank": 215,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
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              "bb_value": 20.0,
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              "k_value": 23.0,
              "k_rank": 435,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.46875,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.8437,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.78,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0209,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_CIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_CLE@LAAawayParker MessickParker MessickTrue6.06.001104/30/16/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5369127516778525,
      "WHIP": 1.0268456375838926,
      "IP": 149.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.96,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6212,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9472,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 0.8929,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.267,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 7,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0106,
            "WHIP": 0.9255,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2234,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79787,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12766,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09574
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 939.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 93.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3102,
            "WHIP": 0.9305,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25668,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73797,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19251,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97861,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09626
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.0,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 152.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 591.0,
            "Pitches": 2305.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.68,
            "R": 1.84,
            "H": 4.52,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.08,
            "HR": 0.56,
            "BF": 23.64,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5369,
            "WHIP": 1.0268,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28188,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75839,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26846,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02013,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09396
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.8,
        "predicted_H": 4.998,
        "predicted_BB": 1.306,
        "predicted_SO": 6.497,
        "predicted_HR": 0.648,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6037,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0132
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.8,
          "final": 1.4637,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.998,
          "final": 4.5784,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.306,
          "final": 0.7569,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.497,
          "final": 5.4472,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.648,
          "final": 0.796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6037,
          "final": 2.6037,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0132,
          "final": 1.0132,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.310160427807487,
        "WHIP": 0.93048128342246,
        "K9": 8.807486631016044,
        "HR9": 0.8663101604278075,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7542224392942709,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 527.0,
        "runs_allowed": 536.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0687,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0229,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0916,
        "offense_index": 0.8984,
        "defense_index": 1.0944,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0233
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.3969,
        "runs_scored": 537.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": -70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5344,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0992,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6336,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1533
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1766,
        "offense_edge": -0.1016,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0846,
        "defense_strength": 0.0944,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0336,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9682,
        "strikeout": 1.0121
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 25.7,
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            "woba": 0.267,
            "xwoba": 0.267,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.9394,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2731,
            "whiff_percent": 26.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.3914,
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            "xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
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            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0004
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.83896253181611,
              "release_spin_rate": 2094.965578953152,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.83896253181611,
                "release_spin_rate": 2094.965578953152,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.839,
              "release_spin_rate": 2094.9656,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0004,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0027,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6212,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9472,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 0.8929,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_id": 4619898,
            "player_name": "Parker Messick",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 7,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 7,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 265,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 26,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 48,
              "era_value": 2.5369,
              "era_rank": 6.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 28,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 149.0,
              "ip_rank": 14,
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": 74,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 126,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 85,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 67,
              "k_value": 152.0,
              "k_rank": 19,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.181209,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.0268,
              "whip_rank": 7.0,
              "war_value": 4.8,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9472,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9472,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8929,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0251,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_CLE@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_CLE@LAAhomeGeorge KlassenGeorge KlassenTrue4.15.132204/62/33/3
Last 10 before this game (5 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.738461538461538,
      "WHIP": 1.6153846153846152,
      "IP": 21.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1957,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0166,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0172,
      "walk_factor": 1.0774,
      "homer_factor": 1.0441,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.8,
      "bb_percent": 17.8,
      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 33.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 282,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691946",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7385,
            "WHIP": 1.6154,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41538,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.83077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7385,
            "WHIP": 1.6154,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41538,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.83077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7385,
            "WHIP": 1.6154,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41538,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.83077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.064,
        "predicted_H": 3.959,
        "predicted_BB": 2.694,
        "predicted_SO": 4.311,
        "predicted_HR": 0.539,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1283,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4784
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.064,
          "final": 2.0281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.959,
          "final": 3.4208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.694,
          "final": 2.3045,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.311,
          "final": 3.5752,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.539,
          "final": 1.359,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1283,
          "final": 4.1283,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4784,
          "final": 1.4784,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 21.2,
        "ER": 9,
        "H": 17,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.738461538461538,
        "WHIP": 1.6153846153846152,
        "K9": 8.723076923076922,
        "HR9": 0.8307692307692307,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9519344321015246,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691946",
      "player_name": "George Klassen",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.3969,
        "runs_scored": 537.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": -70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5344,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0992,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6336,
        "offense_index": 0.9154,
        "defense_index": 0.9664,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1533
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 527.0,
        "runs_allowed": 536.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0687,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0229,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0916,
        "offense_index": 0.8984,
        "defense_index": 1.0944,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0233
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1766,
        "offense_edge": -0.0846,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1016,
        "defense_strength": -0.0336,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0944,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.996,
        "run_prevention": 0.9959,
        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691946",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691946",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 76.0,
            "k_percent": 20.8,
            "bb_percent": 17.8,
            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.35,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3977,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9026,
            "whiff_percent": 33.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5847,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1136,
            "regression_edge": -0.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.1429,
            "bb_edge": -2.15,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1342
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691946",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.24205647578503,
              "release_spin_rate": 2131.9984500472365,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.24205647578503,
                "release_spin_rate": 2131.9984500472365,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.2421,
              "release_spin_rate": 2131.9985,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1342,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9586,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1957,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0166,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0172,
          "walk_factor": 1.0774,
          "homer_factor": 1.0441,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.031,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "691946",
            "espn_id": 5134517,
            "player_name": "George Klassen",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 282,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 282,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 597,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 207,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 152,
              "era_value": 3.7384,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 292,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 400,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 21.2,
              "ip_rank": 470,
              "h_value": 17.0,
              "h_rank": 511,
              "er_value": 9.0,
              "er_rank": 520,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 482,
              "bb_value": 18.0,
              "bb_rank": 296,
              "k_value": 21.0,
              "k_rank": 456,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.723077,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.6153,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0348,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0198,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0077,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 75,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_CLE@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_COL@WASawayRyan FeltnerRyan FeltnerTrue4.25.234514/60/44/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.967391304347826,
      "WHIP": 1.5217391304347827,
      "IP": 92.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.842,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5895,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0501,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9549,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 1.1171,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.376,
      "xwoba": 0.358,
      "barrel_percent": 11.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 238,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663372",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 7.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1772,
            "WHIP": 1.7848,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79747,
            "H_per_IP": 1.36709,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.53165,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18987
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 862.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.7059,
            "WHIP": 1.7059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7451,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2549,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45098,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60784,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23529
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 92.0,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 101.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 408.0,
            "Pitches": 1511.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2105,
            "R": 3.3684,
            "H": 5.3158,
            "BB": 2.0526,
            "SO": 3.3684,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.4737,
            "Pitches": 79.5263
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9674,
            "WHIP": 1.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66304,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09783,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42391,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69565,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20652
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.584,
        "predicted_H": 6.202,
        "predicted_BB": 2.136,
        "predicted_SO": 3.405,
        "predicted_HR": 1.005,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.3012,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6289
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.584,
          "final": 2.8902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.202,
          "final": 4.3615,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.136,
          "final": 1.2004,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.405,
          "final": 3.6656,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.005,
          "final": 1.0028,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.3012,
          "final": 6.3012,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6289,
          "final": 1.6289,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 38,
        "H": 64,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 12,
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 130,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3846,
        "runs_scored": 617.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7923,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 132,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4621,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 672.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0758,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0909,
        "offense_index": 1.1526,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": -6.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1279
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1686,
        "offense_edge": 0.0588,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1526,
        "defense_strength": -0.2261,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1195,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9804,
        "run_prevention": 1.0555,
        "strikeout": 0.9827
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 382.0,
            "k_percent": 15.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.6,
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            "xwoba": 0.358,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6905,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7169,
            "whiff_percent": 23.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9063,
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            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.3429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
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            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0216
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.46014709994553,
              "release_spin_rate": 2337.685073262126,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.46014709994553,
                "release_spin_rate": 2337.685073262126,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4601,
              "release_spin_rate": 2337.6851,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0216,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1542,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5895,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0501,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9549,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 1.1171,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "663372",
            "espn_id": 4019484,
            "player_name": "Ryan Feltner",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 238,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 238,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 374,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 96,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 100,
              "era_value": 5.9673,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 120,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 68,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 92.0,
              "ip_rank": 122,
              "h_value": 102.0,
              "h_rank": 91,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 38,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 28,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 70,
              "k_value": 64.0,
              "k_rank": 178,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.2608695,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39,
              "whip_value": 1.5326,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.54,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0501,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0501,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1171,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9549,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_COL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_COL@WAShomeCade CavalliCade CavalliTrue6.06.000222/50/17/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.2172897196261685,
      "WHIP": 1.2196261682242993,
      "IP": 142.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.284,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.178,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9849,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0314,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.0119,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 38,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676917",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 0.9688,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 73.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 908.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.3,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1236,
            "WHIP": 0.927,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23596,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70787,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2191,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23034,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13483
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 142.2,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 162.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 600.0,
            "Pitches": 2342.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8889,
            "R": 2.2963,
            "H": 4.8889,
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            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 22.2222,
            "Pitches": 86.7407
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2173,
            "WHIP": 1.2196,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35748,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92523,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29439,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13551,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10514
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.753,
        "predicted_H": 4.753,
        "predicted_BB": 1.603,
        "predicted_SO": 6.725,
        "predicted_HR": 0.913,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6234,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.057
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.753,
          "final": 1.0238,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.753,
          "final": 3.6078,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.603,
          "final": 0.9362,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 6.725,
          "final": 6.0074,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.913,
          "final": 0.5332,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6234,
          "final": 2.6234,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.057,
          "final": 1.057,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "H": 42,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 73,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 2.1235955056179776,
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        "K9": 11.073033707865168,
        "HR9": 1.2134831460674156,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7331460107657604,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676917",
      "player_name": "Cade Cavalli",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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        "win_pct": 0.4621,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0758,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0462,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "676917",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.6146666671157,
                "release_spin_rate": 2232.2971242981594,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6147,
              "release_spin_rate": 2232.2971,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0991,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7076,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.178,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9849,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0314,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.0119,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676917",
            "espn_id": 4308037,
            "player_name": "Cade Cavalli",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 38,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 38,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 220,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 1,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 12,
              "era_value": 3.2172,
              "era_rank": 16.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 17,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 121,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 142.2,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 23,
              "er_value": 51.0,
              "er_rank": 81,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 68,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 54,
              "k_value": 162.0,
              "k_rank": 11,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.219626,
              "k_per_9_rank": 10,
              "whip_value": 1.2196,
              "whip_rank": 33.0,
              "war_value": 2.71,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9849,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9849,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0314,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_COL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_MIN@OAKawayZebby MatthewsZebby MatthewsTrue5.07.0631-24/63/14/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.120689655172414,
      "WHIP": 1.3344827586206895,
      "IP": 96.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.686,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4071,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0346,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.964,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.1242,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 11.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 279,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3875,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 925.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 92.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.4625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20625
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 96.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 98.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 81.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 410.0,
            "Pitches": 1570.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2353,
            "R": 3.5294,
            "H": 5.7647,
            "BB": 1.8235,
            "SO": 4.7647,
            "HR": 1.1176,
            "BF": 24.1176,
            "Pitches": 92.3529
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1207,
            "WHIP": 1.3345,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56897,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01379,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32069,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83793,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19655
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.875,
        "predicted_H": 5.321,
        "predicted_BB": 2.019,
        "predicted_SO": 4.754,
        "predicted_HR": 0.925,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8043,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3631
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.875,
          "final": 2.9308,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.321,
          "final": 4.7318,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.019,
          "final": 2.4566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.754,
          "final": 4.4177,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.925,
          "final": 0.5124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8043,
          "final": 4.8043,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3631,
          "final": 1.3631,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 5.3999999999999995,
        "WHIP": 1.4625,
        "K9": 7.9312499999999995,
        "HR9": 1.85625,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.115129859080367,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4809,
        "runs_scored": 600.0,
        "runs_allowed": 654.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4122,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9924,
        "offense_index": 1.0228,
        "defense_index": 0.897,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1019
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 51,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3893,
        "runs_scored": 568.0,
        "runs_allowed": 755.0,
        "run_differential": -187.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4275,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3359,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7634,
        "offense_index": 0.9683,
        "defense_index": 0.777,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3044
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2025,
        "offense_edge": 0.0228,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0317,
        "defense_strength": -0.103,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.223,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9951,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805673",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805673",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 386.0,
            "k_percent": 19.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.343,
            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9108,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6586,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2679,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0009
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805673",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.82883122218665,
              "release_spin_rate": 2240.8029745219283,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.82883122218665,
                "release_spin_rate": 2240.8029745219283,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8288,
              "release_spin_rate": 2240.803,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0009,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0067,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4071,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0346,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.964,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.1242,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "805673",
            "espn_id": 4791597,
            "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 279,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 279,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 403,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 108,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 67,
              "era_value": 5.1206,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 72,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 96.2,
              "ip_rank": 110,
              "h_value": 98.0,
              "h_rank": 99,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 63,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 28,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 131,
              "k_value": 81.0,
              "k_rank": 130,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.5413795,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.3344,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0346,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0346,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1242,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_MIN@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_MIN@OAKhomeJeffrey SpringsJeffrey SpringsTrue4.04.224406/72/26/3
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.0175953079178885,
      "WHIP": 1.4780058651026393,
      "IP": 113.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.942,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4344,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0369,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.0584,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.37,
      "xwoba": 0.344,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 700,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 97.0,
            "Pitches": 377.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 75.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.082,
            "WHIP": 1.918,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78689,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22951,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.68852,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.44262,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2459
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.2,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 209.0,
            "Pitches": 818.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.5,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 2.9,
            "HR": 1.5,
            "BF": 20.9,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.6565,
            "WHIP": 1.855,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.96183,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25954,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59542,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.34351
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 113.2,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 89.0,
            "HR": 29.0,
            "BF": 504.0,
            "Pitches": 1960.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.3043,
            "R": 3.6087,
            "H": 5.2609,
            "BB": 2.0435,
            "SO": 3.8696,
            "HR": 1.2609,
            "BF": 21.913,
            "Pitches": 85.2174
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0176,
            "WHIP": 1.478,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66862,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06452,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41349,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78299,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25513
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.358,
        "predicted_H": 5.104,
        "predicted_BB": 2.448,
        "predicted_SO": 2.856,
        "predicted_HR": 1.129,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.9019,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7246
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.358,
          "final": 2.7802,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.104,
          "final": 4.6343,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.448,
          "final": 2.2574,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.856,
          "final": 4.1936,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.129,
          "final": 1.0741,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.9019,
          "final": 6.9019,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7246,
          "final": 1.7246,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.2,
        "ER": 42,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 29,
        "HR": 15,
        "ERA": 8.656488549618322,
        "WHIP": 1.8549618320610688,
        "K9": 5.977099236641222,
        "HR9": 3.0916030534351147,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.4261348101455824,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "player_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 51,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3893,
        "runs_scored": 568.0,
        "runs_allowed": 755.0,
        "run_differential": -187.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4275,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3359,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7634,
        "offense_index": 0.9683,
        "defense_index": 0.777,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3044
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4809,
        "runs_scored": 600.0,
        "runs_allowed": 654.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4122,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9924,
        "offense_index": 1.0228,
        "defense_index": 0.897,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1019
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2025,
        "offense_edge": -0.0317,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0228,
        "defense_strength": -0.223,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.103,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9843,
        "run_prevention": 1.0361,
        "strikeout": 0.9921
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605488",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605488",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 470.0,
            "k_percent": 17.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.37,
            "xwoba": 0.344,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.521,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5142,
            "whiff_percent": 23.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6968,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3879,
            "regression_edge": 0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2204
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605488",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.90929812279681,
              "release_spin_rate": 2006.840505280605,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.90929812279681,
                "release_spin_rate": 2006.840505280605,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9093,
              "release_spin_rate": 2006.8405,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2204,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5745,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4344,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0369,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 1.0584,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605488",
            "espn_id": 35397,
            "player_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 700,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 700,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 312,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 60,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 117,
              "era_value": 6.0175,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 224,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 5,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 113.2,
              "ip_rank": 91,
              "h_value": 121.0,
              "h_rank": 52,
              "er_value": 76.0,
              "er_rank": 6,
              "hr_value": 29.0,
              "hr_rank": 4,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 89.0,
              "k_rank": 107,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.046921,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.478,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0369,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0369,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0584,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9634,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_MIN@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_PHI@SEAawayZack WheelerZack WheelerTrue5.04.0-32865/92/59/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9168975069252077,
      "WHIP": 1.005540166204986,
      "IP": 120.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.73,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7911,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9328,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0783,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 0.9154,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.271,
      "xwoba": 0.26,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 10,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 120.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.917,
      "season_WHIP": 1.006,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 398.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6393,
            "WHIP": 1.623,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7377,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08197,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32787,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19672
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0106,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0754,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7911,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9328,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0783,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 0.9154,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_id": 31267,
            "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 10,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 10,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 347,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 80,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 24,
              "era_value": 2.9168,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 22,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 159,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 120.1,
              "ip_rank": 78,
              "h_value": 88.0,
              "h_rank": 113,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 136,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 68,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 113,
              "k_value": 144.0,
              "k_rank": 23,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.770083,
              "k_per_9_rank": 7,
              "whip_value": 1.0055,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 4.53,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9328,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9328,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9154,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0783,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_PHI@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_PHI@SEAhomeLogan GilbertLogan GilbertTrue6.05.0-332-18/54/26/5
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.352549889135255,
      "WHIP": 1.0110864745011086,
      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.013,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1604,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9864,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0633,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.283,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 29.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 19,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2637,
            "WHIP": 1.1209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36264,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72527,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3956,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16484
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 958.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2513,
            "WHIP": 0.9895,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36126,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72251,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26702,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02094,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10995
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 157.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 594.0,
            "Pitches": 2357.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.24,
            "R": 2.24,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.48,
            "SO": 6.28,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.76,
            "Pitches": 94.28
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3525,
            "WHIP": 1.0111,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37251,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76497,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24612,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04435,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13304
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.36,
        "predicted_H": 4.711,
        "predicted_BB": 2.002,
        "predicted_SO": 5.95,
        "predicted_HR": 0.857,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.484,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.101
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.36,
          "final": 3.4699,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.711,
          "final": 6.0938,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.002,
          "final": 2.842,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.95,
          "final": 5.1302,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.857,
          "final": 0.9171,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.484,
          "final": 3.484,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.101,
          "final": 1.101,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 63.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.25130890052356,
        "WHIP": 0.9895287958115182,
        "K9": 9.18848167539267,
        "HR9": 0.9895287958115182,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8615778302845556,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "percent_delta": -0.4,
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            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            },
            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4733,
        "runs_scored": 513.0,
        "runs_allowed": 574.0,
        "run_differential": -61.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4656,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.916,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3817,
        "offense_index": 0.8745,
        "defense_index": 1.022,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.9,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0449
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5573,
        "runs_scored": 599.0,
        "runs_allowed": 572.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2061,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5725,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3664,
        "offense_index": 1.0211,
        "defense_index": 1.0256,
        "current_streak": "W9",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.214
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2589,
        "offense_edge": -0.1255,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0211,
        "defense_strength": 0.022,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0256,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9895,
        "run_prevention": 1.0141,
        "strikeout": 0.9905
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 567.0,
            "k_percent": 26.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.2,
            "woba": 0.283,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.4303,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4636,
            "whiff_percent": 29.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0631,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6514,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6429,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0185
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.51467279604242,
              "release_spin_rate": 1931.4983267194737,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.51467279604242,
                "release_spin_rate": 1931.4983267194737,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5147,
              "release_spin_rate": 1931.4983,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0185,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1324,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1604,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9864,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 1.0633,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_id": 41221,
            "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 19,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 19,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 265,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 26,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 24,
              "era_value": 3.3525,
              "era_rank": 20.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 22,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 68,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 150.1,
              "ip_rank": 11,
              "h_value": 115.0,
              "h_rank": 67,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 57,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 25,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 80,
              "k_value": 157.0,
              "k_rank": 17,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.399114,
              "k_per_9_rank": 41,
              "whip_value": 1.011,
              "whip_rank": 6.0,
              "war_value": 3.26,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9864,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9864,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0633,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0503,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 30,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_PHI@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_PIT@SDawayBraxton AshcraftBraxton AshcraftTrue6.16.0-131-25/44/18/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.736607142857143,
      "WHIP": 1.0848214285714286,
      "IP": 149.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.973,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 8.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3568,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9697,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
      "walk_factor": 0.926,
      "homer_factor": 0.9894,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 26,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677952",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 409.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 0.7879,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15152,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87879,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15152
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 858.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 85.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6023,
            "WHIP": 1.0568,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51136,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86932,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05682,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22159
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.1,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 159.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 602.0,
            "Pitches": 2184.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.48,
            "R": 2.68,
            "H": 5.16,
            "BB": 1.32,
            "SO": 6.36,
            "HR": 0.84,
            "BF": 24.08,
            "Pitches": 87.36
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7366,
            "WHIP": 1.0848,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41518,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86384,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06473,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14062
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.693,
        "predicted_H": 5.036,
        "predicted_BB": 1.321,
        "predicted_SO": 6.136,
        "predicted_HR": 1.068,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8431,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0081
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.693,
          "final": 3.2425,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.036,
          "final": 5.0209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.321,
          "final": 2.4473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.136,
          "final": 6.4993,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.068,
          "final": 1.0394,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8431,
          "final": 3.8431,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0081,
          "final": 1.0081,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.2,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 62,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 4.602272727272727,
        "WHIP": 1.0568181818181817,
        "K9": 9.511363636363635,
        "HR9": 1.9943181818181817,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0152434954440033,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677952",
      "player_name": "Braxton Ashcraft",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            },
            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4773,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1894,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.947,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7576,
        "offense_index": 1.1047,
        "defense_index": 0.9412,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.004
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.542,
        "runs_scored": 564.0,
        "runs_allowed": 548.0,
        "run_differential": 16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1221,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3053,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1832,
        "offense_index": 0.9614,
        "defense_index": 1.0705,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1207
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1167,
        "offense_edge": 0.1047,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0386,
        "defense_strength": -0.0588,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0705,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9951,
        "run_prevention": 1.0055,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677952",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677952",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
            "k_percent": 26.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.292,
            "xwoba": 0.285,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.073,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.425,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 52.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3549,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4864,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.925,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1447
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677952",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.4297135756092,
              "release_spin_rate": 2476.156103232497,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.4297135756092,
                "release_spin_rate": 2476.156103232497,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.4297,
              "release_spin_rate": 2476.1561,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1447,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.0336,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3568,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9697,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "677952",
            "espn_id": 41282,
            "player_name": "Braxton Ashcraft",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 26,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 26,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 265,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 26,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 24,
              "era_value": 3.6763,
              "era_rank": 31.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 5,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 121,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 149.1,
              "ip_rank": 12,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 32,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 38,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 20,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 113,
              "k_value": 159.0,
              "k_rank": 13,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.582589,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.0781,
              "whip_rank": 11.0,
              "war_value": 3.02,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9697,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9697,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.926,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9894,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 123,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_PIT@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_PIT@SDhomeRobbie RayRobbie RayTrue5.25.1-132-15/52/26/5
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3147699757869251,
      "IP": 137.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.472,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2648,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0225,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 1.052,
      "homer_factor": 1.045,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.2,
      "bb_percent": 11.8,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 24.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 55,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 137.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.203,
      "season_WHIP": 1.315,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 433.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81481,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 904.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0172,
            "WHIP": 1.2931,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22414,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74138,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06897
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 68.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 578.0,
            "Pitches": 2328.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.96,
            "R": 2.28,
            "H": 4.52,
            "BB": 2.72,
            "SO": 4.68,
            "HR": 0.72,
            "BF": 23.12,
            "Pitches": 93.12
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3148,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35593,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82082,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84988,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13075
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.77,
        "predicted_H": 4.606,
        "predicted_BB": 2.708,
        "predicted_SO": 4.474,
        "predicted_HR": 0.599,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8753,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3199
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.77,
          "final": 2.2871,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.606,
          "final": 4.7716,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.708,
          "final": 2.4103,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.474,
          "final": 5.1156,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.599,
          "final": 0.3472,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8753,
          "final": 2.8753,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3199,
          "final": 1.3199,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 30,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.0172413793103448,
        "WHIP": 1.293103448275862,
        "K9": 6.672413793103448,
        "HR9": 0.6206896551724138,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7303346004596774,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.542,
        "runs_scored": 564.0,
        "runs_allowed": 548.0,
        "run_differential": 16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1221,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3053,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1832,
        "offense_index": 0.9614,
        "defense_index": 1.0705,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1207
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4773,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1894,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.947,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7576,
        "offense_index": 1.1047,
        "defense_index": 0.9412,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.004
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1167,
        "offense_edge": -0.0386,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1047,
        "defense_strength": 0.0705,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0588,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0026,
        "run_prevention": 1.0039,
        "strikeout": 0.9951
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 527.0,
            "k_percent": 20.2,
            "bb_percent": 11.8,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.5489,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0713,
            "whiff_percent": 24.8,
            "swing_percent": 47.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2369,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2771,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
            "bb_edge": -0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0729
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.54415307196537,
              "release_spin_rate": 2137.0276995025624,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.54415307196537,
                "release_spin_rate": 2137.0276995025624,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5442,
              "release_spin_rate": 2137.0277,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0729,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5206,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2648,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0225,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 1.052,
          "homer_factor": 1.045,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592662",
            "espn_id": 32175,
            "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 55,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 55,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 265,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 40,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 48,
              "era_value": 3.2033,
              "era_rank": 14.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 17,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 68,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 137.2,
              "ip_rank": 38,
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": 74,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 88,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 36,
              "bb_value": 68.0,
              "bb_rank": 1,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 55,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6489105,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39,
              "whip_value": 1.3147,
              "whip_rank": 45.0,
              "war_value": 2.24,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0225,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0225,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.052,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.045,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_PIT@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_TB@DETawayDrew RasmussenDrew RasmussenTrue6.06.0031-24/32/07/5
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0148883374689825,
      "WHIP": 0.945409429280397,
      "IP": 134.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.597,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5287,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9551,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0211,
      "walk_factor": 0.91,
      "homer_factor": 0.9216,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 4.7,
      "woba": 0.255,
      "xwoba": 0.275,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 27,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 134.1,
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                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.4228,
              "release_spin_rate": 2377.6035,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1443,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0309,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5287,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9551,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0211,
          "walk_factor": 0.91,
          "homer_factor": 0.9216,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656876",
            "espn_id": 42584,
            "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 27,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 27,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 292,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 40,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 18,
              "era_value": 3.0148,
              "era_rank": 12.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 5,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 121,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 134.1,
              "ip_rank": 48,
              "h_value": 102.0,
              "h_rank": 91,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 107,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 102,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 195,
              "k_value": 138.0,
              "k_rank": 29,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.245657,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16,
              "whip_value": 0.9454,
              "whip_rank": 3.0,
              "war_value": 2.99,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9551,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9551,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.91,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9216,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0211,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_TB@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_TB@DEThomeFramber ValdezFramber ValdezTrue6.06.001324/82/22/0
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.3485576923076925,
      "WHIP": 1.3990384615384617,
      "IP": 138.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.547,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2577,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
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      "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
      "whiff_percent": 20.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 151,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4835,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3956,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95604,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52747,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06593
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52727,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07273
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3486,
            "WHIP": 1.399,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48317,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00962,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38942,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80048,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09375
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.681,
          "final": 1.9743,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.762,
          "final": 5.0212,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.533,
          "final": 2.3089,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.651,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.197,
          "final": 4.197,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4426,
          "final": 1.4426,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 22,
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        "HR": 4,
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        "K9": 7.2,
        "HR9": 0.6545454545454545,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0417491772621852,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.8333,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4692,
        "runs_scored": 587.0,
        "runs_allowed": 514.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5615,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9538,
        "offense_index": 1.0073,
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        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0623
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 77,
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        "win_pct": 0.5923,
        "runs_scored": 587.0,
        "runs_allowed": 543.0,
        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3385,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1769,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.05
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1123,
        "offense_edge": 0.0073,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0073,
        "defense_strength": 0.1337,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0732,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9992,
        "run_prevention": 0.9934,
        "strikeout": 0.996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664285",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664285",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 585.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.32,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6583,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7684,
            "whiff_percent": 20.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 22.1,
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            "woba": 0.316,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.207,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4721,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6714,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0956
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664285",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.139142159581,
              "release_spin_rate": 2287.8440741527656,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.139142159581,
                "release_spin_rate": 2287.8440741527656,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1391,
              "release_spin_rate": 2287.8441,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0956,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6826,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2577,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0219,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0271,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664285",
            "espn_id": 36581,
            "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 151,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 151,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 265,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 26,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 24,
              "era_value": 4.3485,
              "era_rank": 49.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 138.2,
              "ip_rank": 34,
              "h_value": 140.0,
              "h_rank": 13,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 21,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 102,
              "bb_value": 54.0,
              "bb_rank": 15,
              "k_value": 111.0,
              "k_rank": 67,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2043266,
              "k_per_9_rank": 53,
              "whip_value": 1.399,
              "whip_rank": 50.0,
              "war_value": 1.09,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0219,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0219,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0271,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9503,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_TB@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_TEX@CHWawayKumar RockerKumar RockerTrue5.05.2242-25/51/33/8
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.462809917355372,
      "WHIP": 1.396694214876033,
      "IP": 121.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.924,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2332,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.331,
      "xwoba": 0.333,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 190,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
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            "BF": 117.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.2,
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            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.72,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 850.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53846,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17308
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 121.0,
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            "R": 61.0,
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            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5417,
            "H": 5.0417,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.5417,
            "HR": 0.7083,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 84.5417
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4628,
            "WHIP": 1.3967,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49587,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39669,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90083,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1405
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.079,
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        "predicted_ERA": 5.0665,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "final": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.869,
          "final": 3.3472,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.587,
          "final": 5.3388,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.079,
          "final": 1.6228,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.843,
          "final": 4.0637,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.883,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0665,
          "final": 5.0665,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5041,
          "final": 1.5041,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.846153846153846,
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        "K9": 9.173076923076923,
        "HR9": 1.5576923076923077,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0508750513880594,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "player_name": "Kumar Rocker",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 521.0,
        "runs_allowed": 567.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3511,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9771,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3282,
        "offense_index": 0.8889,
        "defense_index": 1.0338,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0464
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5231,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 575.0,
        "run_differential": 43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4231,
        "offense_index": 1.0624,
        "defense_index": 1.0116,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0953
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1417,
        "offense_edge": -0.1111,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0624,
        "defense_strength": 0.0338,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0116,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9928,
        "run_prevention": 1.0137,
        "strikeout": 0.9908
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 505.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.331,
            "xwoba": 0.333,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4481,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.37,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0664,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0379
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.16820735292713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2133.529685003887,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.16820735292713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2133.529685003887,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1682,
              "release_spin_rate": 2133.5297,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0379,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.271,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2332,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0198,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 1.0473,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "677958",
            "espn_id": 4414525,
            "player_name": "Kumar Rocker",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 190,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 190,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 292,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 70,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 83,
              "era_value": 4.4628,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 171,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 121.0,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 121.0,
              "h_rank": 52,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 46,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 49,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 26,
              "k_value": 109.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.107438,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.3966,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.83,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0198,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0198,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0473,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9943,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_TEX@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082420260824_TEX@CHWhomeJosé UrquidyJosé UrquidyTrue3.03.004514/60/42/2
Last 10 before this game (5 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 8.526315789473685,
      "WHIP": 2.6842105263157894,
      "IP": 6.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.267,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.267,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2397,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9796,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0098,
      "walk_factor": 0.9424,
      "homer_factor": 0.9757,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 2.8,
      "woba": 0.359,
      "xwoba": 0.257,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 672,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.27,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2026,
        "prior_weight": 0.7974
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664353",
      "report_date": "20260824",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 36.0,
            "Pitches": 131.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.2,
            "Pitches": 26.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.5263,
            "WHIP": 2.6842,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "H_per_IP": 2.36842,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 36.0,
            "Pitches": 131.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.2,
            "Pitches": 26.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.5263,
            "WHIP": 2.6842,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "H_per_IP": 2.36842,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 36.0,
            "Pitches": 131.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.2,
            "Pitches": 26.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.5263,
            "WHIP": 2.6842,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "H_per_IP": 2.36842,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.049,
        "predicted_H": 4.349,
        "predicted_BB": 1.233,
        "predicted_SO": 3.276,
        "predicted_HR": 0.517,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3301,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6135
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6869,
      "form_weight": 0.3131,
      "form_reliability": 0.2026,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.27,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2026,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.049,
          "final": 3.3891,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.349,
          "final": 4.1093,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.233,
          "final": 0.3861,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.276,
          "final": 2.3995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.517,
          "final": 0.8488,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3301,
          "final": 5.3301,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6135,
          "final": 1.6135,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 6.1,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 15,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 8.526315789473685,
        "WHIP": 2.6842105263157894,
        "K9": 8.526315789473685,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-04-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.10281135320576,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.27,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2026,
          "prior_weight": 0.7974
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664353",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Urquidy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5231,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 575.0,
        "run_differential": 43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4231,
        "offense_index": 1.0624,
        "defense_index": 1.0116,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0953
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 521.0,
        "runs_allowed": 567.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3511,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9771,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3282,
        "offense_index": 0.8889,
        "defense_index": 1.0338,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0464
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1417,
        "offense_edge": 0.0624,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1111,
        "defense_strength": 0.0116,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0338,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0105,
        "run_prevention": 0.974,
        "strikeout": 1.0131
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664353",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664353",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 26.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 2.8,
            "woba": 0.359,
            "xwoba": 0.257,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6385,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9472,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.5,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6311,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9182,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3661,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5357,
            "regression_edge": 2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 1.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1449
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664353",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 25,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 25,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.25754521016617,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.128360215054,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 25,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.25754521016617,
                "release_spin_rate": 2309.128360215054,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2575,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.1284,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1449,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0352,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2397,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9796,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0098,
          "walk_factor": 0.9424,
          "homer_factor": 0.9757,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.102,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664353",
            "espn_id": 35759,
            "player_name": "Jose Urquidy",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 672,
            "espn_total_ranked": 828,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 672,
              "gp_value": 7.0,
              "gp_rank": 559,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 346,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 5.0625,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 292,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 400,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 127,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 329,
              "ip_value": 16.0,
              "ip_rank": 526,
              "h_value": 22.0,
              "h_rank": 454,
              "er_value": 9.0,
              "er_rank": 520,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 482,
              "bb_value": 2.0,
              "bb_rank": 685,
              "k_value": 17.0,
              "k_rank": 489,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.5625,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.5,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.27,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9908,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 0.9908,
            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9741,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0044,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 13,
      "Pitches": 50,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260824_TEX@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}