Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260822 · dates 20260822 · generated 2026-08-23T06:00:19.414628+00:00

9-6

Winner picks · 60.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

13/30

Starter ER within ±1

18/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260822	15	15	0	9	6	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1783.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	6	52.9%	33.3%	19.6%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	5	57.1%	60.0%	-2.9%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	3	63.2%	100.0%	-36.8%	underconfident
0.70-0.80	1	74.6%	100.0%	-25.4%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.0784	3.8296	2.352	60.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	1.9667	3.5333	2.4667	53.3%	-0.1117	0.1147
enhanced_prediction	15	1.8333	3.0	2.7333	53.3%	-0.2451	0.3813
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	1.8667	3.2	2.5333	53.3%	-0.2117	0.1813
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	1.9333	3.2	2.5333	60.0%	-0.1451	0.1813
capped_target	15	1.9333	3.2	2.5333	60.0%	-0.1451	0.1813
simulation_result	15	1.9333	3.2	2.5333	60.0%	-0.1451	0.1813
published_final	15	1.9333	3.2	2.5333	60.0%	-0.1451	0.1813

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 1.9667,
  "total_run_mae": 3.5333,
  "margin_mae": 2.4667,
  "winner_hits": 8,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.1117,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1147
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	5.0	6
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	6
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	6
capped_target	0.0	6
simulation_result	0.0	6
variance_applied	-0.218	6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.218,
      "games": 6
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=9

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	7.0	9
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	9
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	9
capped_target	0.0	9
simulation_result	0.0	9
variance_applied	-1.1404	9

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.1404,
      "games": 9
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	1	0	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	5	1	4	0.2
[0.550, 0.600)	5	3	2	0.6
[0.600, 1.010)	4	4	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 5,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 4,
    "accuracy": 0.2
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.2
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260822	15	0.5784	7.2667	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260822",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5784,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.2667,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v9	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	9	6	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 9,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260822_ATL@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreATL 2 - 4 MIL

Final confidence57.0%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 59.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=212

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5045

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.388582797529444-5.454646344210606	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.140824,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.570412,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.570412,
    "away_win_probability": 0.429588
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.140824,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 2 - 4 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.5704123,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.61,
    "sample_size": 212,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5708,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5904,
    "published_confidence": 0.570412,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.438,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.628,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5045
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.038936878146366746
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03757159984562853
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.036994360971064434
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03569719487332006
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03359162994218574
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06613152125362134,
      "1": 0.11061182166219688,
      "2": 0.15401502332467876,
      "3": 0.1785225726237161,
      "4": 0.17226287728607473,
      "5": 0.13837536092701944,
      "6": 0.09253251066458872,
      "7": 0.05151081659389525,
      "8": 0.023871023101085253,
      "9": 0.00920899295885664,
      "10": 0.0029574796042669904
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10979888694224647,
      "1": 0.17648989286815564,
      "2": 0.21810619001349815,
      "3": 0.20722511684301073,
      "4": 0.15137112721078733,
      "5": 0.08500998641191183,
      "6": 0.03670481998846513,
      "7": 0.012184353771617524,
      "8": 0.003109625950307319
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 2 - 4 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 2 - 4 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0092,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.628,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 19,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8947,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5045,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5704,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6338,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5704,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5045,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.628,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0092,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8947,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0526,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8421,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.388582797529444,
      "home_runs": 5.454646344210606,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_CHC@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreCHC 3 - 4 SEA

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 56.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=330

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9036

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.961634664687325-5.01176731767233	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.070418,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535209,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.535209,
    "away_win_probability": 0.464791
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.070418,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.535209295,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.586278,
    "sample_size": 330,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.561339,
    "published_confidence": 0.535209,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2674,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.228,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9036
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03249968036215316
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03146224764194817
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029898727944298962
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028944321060407133
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028662397087591003
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.055103712443884866,
      "1": 0.09306816383086422,
      "2": 0.1334272243406317,
      "3": 0.16237186417981359,
      "4": 0.16772589630929907,
      "5": 0.14706606939362055,
      "6": 0.10945809072742517,
      "7": 0.06915224295778424,
      "8": 0.037084095680478525,
      "9": 0.01688076539293232,
      "10": 0.006522582706594364,
      "11": 0.002139292036671292
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08057882963631069,
      "1": 0.13305562900261644,
      "2": 0.17825946143202284,
      "3": 0.19376662207379902,
      "4": 0.1708883226638742,
      "5": 0.12227927251681002,
      "6": 0.07099051815483624,
      "7": 0.03343912358503067,
      "8": 0.012779576651398837,
      "9": 0.00396264428330119
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.075,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.122,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.9036,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5352,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5207,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5352,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.9036,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.228,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.075,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.961634664687325,
      "home_runs": 5.01176731767233,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline, projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_CIN@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickARI

Published scoreCIN 3 - 4 ARI

Final confidence58.4%

Calibrationraw 78.1% → blended 66.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=203

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7858

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.834897636056687-5.582973742431542	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.168966,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.584483,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.584483,
    "away_win_probability": 0.415517
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.168966,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.5844833700000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.780914,
    "sample_size": 203,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5517,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.666307,
    "published_confidence": 0.584483,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0812,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0812,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9419,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.496,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7858
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03073347075300155
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030381030802571464
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030253061046900155
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029906130255340065
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027102960868336183
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04016771085540961,
      "1": 0.06875176824327464,
      "2": 0.10258566764158429,
      "3": 0.13343984620907043,
      "4": 0.15131444976340883,
      "5": 0.14957923223452746,
      "6": 0.12890157479582573,
      "7": 0.09683696581548068,
      "8": 0.06341911102167674,
      "9": 0.03620721770986922,
      "10": 0.018020472887169726,
      "11": 0.007818676421205243,
      "12": 0.0029573064014976704
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09540355563926818,
      "1": 0.15541754316009662,
      "2": 0.1999350431779848,
      "3": 0.20310995282377572,
      "4": 0.1629396926591294,
      "5": 0.10322288267967017,
      "6": 0.051639077695081526,
      "7": 0.02040019757169844,
      "8": 0.006364197858838214,
      "9": 0.0015678567344569615
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0724,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.671,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7858,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5845,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6632,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5845,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7858,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.496,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0724,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.834897636056687,
      "home_runs": 5.582973742431542,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_CLE@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 5 - 2 COL

Final confidence74.6%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 72.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 52.7% · weight 50.0% · n=165

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8479

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.442988846947627-4.498747939766708	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.492388,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.746194,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.253806,
    "away_win_probability": 0.746194
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.492388,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-2",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 2 COL",
    "confidence": 0.746194,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 165,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5273,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.72365,
    "published_confidence": 0.746194,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -8.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0667,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0667,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.046,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8479
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03357280733714188
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.0317449455049347
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03147922492143743
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029404997729416443
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.028526208504083612
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12663256609672438,
      "1": 0.2002622666990507,
      "2": 0.2356908558606407,
      "3": 0.20643162223014633,
      "4": 0.13455492654680612,
      "5": 0.06526988801593413,
      "6": 0.023562209746888187,
      "7": 0.006330077888645035,
      "8": 0.0012655869151641697
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0309784574404988,
      "1": 0.05347246629840921,
      "2": 0.08183214639664708,
      "3": 0.11103016106177574,
      "4": 0.13356150286988847,
      "5": 0.14244425060339555,
      "6": 0.1346889143790324,
      "7": 0.11291251482039194,
      "8": 0.08392195805539777,
      "9": 0.05530093017437471,
      "10": 0.03230818526073435,
      "11": 0.016734625310337314,
      "12": 0.007684979643156694,
      "13": 0.0031289076859599427
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 2 COL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 2 COL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0672,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.83,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.7462,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7014,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7462,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.48,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0672,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.442988846947627,
      "home_runs": 4.498747939766708,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_DET@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickKC

Published scoreDET 2 - 4 KC

Final confidence64.6%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=269

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6858

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.039503376559007-3.9618559643089473	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.292302,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.646151,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.646151,
    "away_win_probability": 0.353849
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.292302,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 2 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.646151,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 269,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.61505,
    "published_confidence": 0.646151,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.432,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.7,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6858
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03855178178113829
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.037597653180524986
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03494091312860861
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03407615090472972
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03348384312344559
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0562912377769053,
      "1": 0.09497365202121011,
      "2": 0.13572898582363585,
      "3": 0.16430440072274863,
      "4": 0.1684740101178746,
      "5": 0.14632676012719784,
      "6": 0.1076519066834862,
      "7": 0.06708521586893448,
      "8": 0.0354110694306782,
      "9": 0.01583282421509305,
      "10": 0.005996320851962483,
      "11": 0.0019236163602732626
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11962698937087504,
      "1": 0.1904820926793017,
      "2": 0.22882925238240093,
      "3": 0.20739645898000428,
      "4": 0.14181544756862624,
      "5": 0.07316075020266857,
      "6": 0.028475094089518208,
      "7": 0.008361507676383878,
      "8": 0.0018524070502212004
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 2 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 2 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0093,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.77,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 18,
        "published_winner": "KC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6111,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.6858,
      "winner": "KC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.6462,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.567,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6462,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.6858,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.7,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0093,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6111,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.039503376559007,
      "home_runs": 3.9618559643089473,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_LAA@TEX

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAA

Published scoreLAA 5 - 4 TEX

Final confidence52.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 50.5% · weight 50.0% · n=283

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0325

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.39821241671091-4.967318787558703	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.04039,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520195,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.479805,
    "away_win_probability": 0.520195
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.04039,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.5201945975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 283,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5053,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5077,
    "published_confidence": 0.520195,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3527,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.748,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0325
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0325705482750523
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031460510234559744
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030838877316998078
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029787856417415267
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028481972893989536
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0659682698084132,
      "1": 0.11035481502532454,
      "2": 0.15372422548816045,
      "3": 0.17831512120428752,
      "4": 0.17223795707243866,
      "5": 0.13853655736723713,
      "6": 0.09278862728732384,
      "7": 0.051751142428905446,
      "8": 0.02403476975861776,
      "9": 0.009295116211416437,
      "10": 0.002993398347875195
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06933098382126685,
      "1": 0.11564993276034884,
      "2": 0.15972830964435727,
      "3": 0.18265724216252924,
      "4": 0.17294594596757376,
      "5": 0.1355821028863279,
      "6": 0.08800611191373939,
      "7": 0.04729789280700904,
      "8": 0.02104695344497164,
      "9": 0.007754524591876275
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0602,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.818,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0325,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5202,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5244,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5202,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0325,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.748,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0602,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.25,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.39821241671091,
      "home_runs": 4.967318787558703,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_MIN@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreMIN 3 - 4 SD

Final confidence58.8%

Calibrationraw 69.7% → blended 62.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=269

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4964

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.0449036669863725-4.927278246180792	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.176206,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.588103,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.588103,
    "away_win_probability": 0.411897
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.176206,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 SD",
    "confidence": 0.58810335,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.696621,
    "sample_size": 269,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.62711,
    "published_confidence": 0.588103,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4729,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.54,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4964
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032971808261757524
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03284101488560756
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030651970045411692
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03053037906028708
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03049968315524259
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04781775675157214,
      "1": 0.08128905405487252,
      "2": 0.11883466055961055,
      "3": 0.14939029300654025,
      "4": 0.16149899237011411,
      "5": 0.1501362083994189,
      "6": 0.12002432147881192,
      "7": 0.08251278846121475,
      "8": 0.0487799619760317,
      "9": 0.024798752814402573,
      "10": 0.010841426026368542,
      "11": 0.004075784101041949
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0979524410781988,
      "1": 0.1591943038994671,
      "2": 0.20335120611987725,
      "3": 0.20416107727901253,
      "4": 0.16110392164894694,
      "5": 0.09991857774118157,
      "6": 0.04870721998933199,
      "7": 0.018661536951212854,
      "8": 0.005619639329413302,
      "9": 0.0013300759633575853
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0125,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.89,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 25,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4964,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5881,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5799,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5881,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4964,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.54,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0125,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.04,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.04,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.56,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.0449036669863725,
      "home_runs": 4.927278246180792,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_NYM@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHW

Published scoreNYM 3 - 4 CHW

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 58.7% → blended 56.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=329

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6024

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.922228851965997-3.7221151143816336	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.586901,
    "sample_size": 329,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.538,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56245,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.819,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.2,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6024
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0279674039435213
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02722658475223268
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02659844054183176
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025893883363356036
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02541638292301293
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0450067828136388,
      "1": 0.0767042718165774,
      "2": 0.11298654862186895,
      "3": 0.14384658078247164,
      "4": 0.1582843413566596,
      "5": 0.15053655501169225,
      "6": 0.12374042471091566,
      "7": 0.0879117329288841,
      "8": 0.05398184069610768,
      "9": 0.02864930869589152,
      "10": 0.013141538574906334,
      "11": 0.005210073990385917
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06471266454186911,
      "1": 0.10837553033073438,
      "2": 0.1514745050809554,
      "3": 0.17669090766535642,
      "4": 0.17201060142066388,
      "5": 0.13975346356569818,
      "6": 0.09476245397022619,
      "7": 0.05362611935547079,
      "8": 0.025326944301460222,
      "9": 0.009982873620675679,
      "10": 0.003283936146889661
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0116,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.55,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6024,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6068,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6024,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.2,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0116,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.922228851965997,
      "home_runs": 3.7221151143816336,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_OAK@HOU

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickHOU

Published scoreOAK 3 - 4 HOU

Final confidence55.4%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 56.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=330

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9904

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.524965208974671-5.126581430604945	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.10889,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554445,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.554445,
    "away_win_probability": 0.445555
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.10889,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.5544454325,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 330,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5614,
    "published_confidence": 0.554445,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3256,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.368,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9904
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027702583586588676
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027104959793227402
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02644013806834924
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025869748827937297
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025106405166027426
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.044570958607581646,
      "1": 0.07599142764507613,
      "2": 0.11206885543768588,
      "3": 0.14295948444565698,
      "4": 0.15774249802637436,
      "5": 0.1505539515485037,
      "6": 0.1242920375285704,
      "7": 0.08875690712580664,
      "8": 0.05482374726791946,
      "9": 0.029291592072316717,
      "10": 0.01353707832902261,
      "11": 0.0054114619654854436
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06390490079671034,
      "1": 0.10709978912027032,
      "2": 0.1500149059279087,
      "3": 0.17561902425278467,
      "4": 0.17183042066885162,
      "5": 0.14051409621571972,
      "6": 0.09603534104086493,
      "7": 0.05485719778290722,
      "8": 0.026189517841644302,
      "9": 0.01044991443369975,
      "10": 0.0034848919186382704
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.019,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.438,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 11,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8182,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9904,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5544,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6415,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5544,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9904,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.368,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.019,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8182,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1818,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0909,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6364,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.524965208974671,
      "home_runs": 5.126581430604945,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_PIT@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scorePIT 3 - 4 LAD

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 63.7% → blended 60.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=212

H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7643

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.074953001819129-4.909929089963168	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.1197,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.55985,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.55985,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44015
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.1197,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.559850455,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.636598,
    "sample_size": 212,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5708,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.603699,
    "published_confidence": 0.55985,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0687,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0687,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0811,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.176,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7643
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026301969549896335
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026015370485576762
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025932163465679038
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02564959398847899
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023184530028156604
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04009710752842986,
      "1": 0.06863532703943634,
      "2": 0.10243164330576855,
      "3": 0.13328225853063752,
      "4": 0.15120366473492702,
      "5": 0.14955607599627718,
      "6": 0.1289726361532676,
      "7": 0.09697122061935678,
      "8": 0.06356820063098145,
      "9": 0.03633195311590572,
      "10": 0.01810461702061484,
      "11": 0.007865778456246714,
      "12": 0.0029795168681505343
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06267833236675618,
      "1": 0.10515900136669919,
      "2": 0.14778010132037944,
      "3": 0.1739506089088908,
      "4": 0.17150486075281537,
      "5": 0.14163396058070524,
      "6": 0.09797129592620683,
      "7": 0.05676371258412969,
      "8": 0.027547565133476025,
      "9": 0.011197888307701064,
      "10": 0.003812672752240227
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0702,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.351,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7643,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5599,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5894,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5599,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7643,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.176,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0702,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.074953001819129,
      "home_runs": 4.909929089963168,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_SF@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreSF 3 - 6 BOS

Final confidence64.7%

Calibrationraw 88.2% → blended 70.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.0% · weight 50.0% · n=166

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.245

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.1716536116515295-4.331036828727558	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.293728,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.646864,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.646864,
    "away_win_probability": 0.353136
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.293728,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 6 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.6468638,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.881506,
    "sample_size": 166,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5301,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.705803,
    "published_confidence": 0.646864,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.5664,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.648,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.245
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026293962636321975
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025764467741318273
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02491299508961129
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.024411309440260775
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024123543752285963
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.023725158030160756,
      "1": 0.041237562792297504,
      "2": 0.06443577612347277,
      "3": 0.09051307847622732,
      "4": 0.11429988841006508,
      "5": 0.12975690402166873,
      "6": 0.1324235850864895,
      "7": 0.12149276215429146,
      "8": 0.10020414082506389,
      "9": 0.07429697459676288,
      "10": 0.049522982091279,
      "11": 0.029675131044245875,
      "12": 0.015985591128761415,
      "13": 0.007741318819723412,
      "14": 0.003370166871923536,
      "15": 0.0013189795275670203
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08706948778450631,
      "1": 0.14292856417653907,
      "2": 0.18813110272871655,
      "3": 0.19855951354246046,
      "4": 0.16803870581365649,
      "5": 0.11402930696524267,
      "6": 0.062045768832153125,
      "7": 0.02707050670151134,
      "8": 0.009470417567181904,
      "9": 0.002656625888032016
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 3 - 6 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 3 - 6 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0697,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.998,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8214,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.245,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.6469,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6469,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.245,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.648,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0697,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8214,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1071,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.1716536116515295,
      "home_runs": 4.331036828727558,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_STL@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSTL

Published scoreSTL 5 - 3 PHI

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 55.5% → blended 53.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 50.5% · weight 50.0% · n=283

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.143

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.858706202285253-3.5691479333332494	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 3 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.554632,
    "sample_size": 283,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5053,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.529966,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0375,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0375,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1188,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.188,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.143
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03219042361691482
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03125659452384547
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03064909961548368
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02975998360887481
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0280378609740872
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06844800740655842,
      "1": 0.11426788635932,
      "2": 0.15819647179604643,
      "3": 0.18162624625760493,
      "4": 0.17292971911716712,
      "5": 0.1365431380577329,
      "6": 0.08940860895798024,
      "7": 0.04855098120072575,
      "8": 0.021863812754982663,
      "9": 0.008165128091881572
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06512847933392342,
      "1": 0.10903151027436492,
      "2": 0.15222211204181565,
      "3": 0.1772344266326925,
      "4": 0.17209293903213463,
      "5": 0.13935502845825842,
      "6": 0.09410806911810905,
      "7": 0.05299998015342958,
      "8": 0.024892537892384017,
      "9": 0.009750059647345849,
      "10": 0.0031848574155418767
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0393,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.188,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.7143,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.143,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.604,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.143,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.188,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0393,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7143,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1071,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0357,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5357,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.858706202285253,
      "home_runs": 3.5691479333332494,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_TB@BAL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 3 BAL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 50.5% · weight 50.0% · n=283

H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4328

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.649520826764157-4.319801544661875	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 283,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5053,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5077,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7692,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.192,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4328
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03232341502141375
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.031328573947751306
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030716163010647217
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029770789492160426
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028192679586589643
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06875526916681657,
      "1": 0.11474907271968113,
      "2": 0.1587308073537907,
      "3": 0.18198773007802954,
      "4": 0.17293855798686986,
      "5": 0.13621044163486556,
      "6": 0.08891966361926329,
      "7": 0.0481120723183659,
      "8": 0.021576408624130104,
      "9": 0.008019976498187495
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06542078153626509,
      "1": 0.10949233944235001,
      "2": 0.15274612537703744,
      "3": 0.17761315560974728,
      "4": 0.17214662732657188,
      "5": 0.1390722134853032,
      "6": 0.09364846771853098,
      "7": 0.05256291535961989,
      "8": 0.024591027447978805,
      "9": 0.009589420531287899,
      "10": 0.003116926165307681
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0238,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.402,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5357,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4328,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5439,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4328,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.192,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0238,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5357,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1429,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0357,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6429,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.649520826764157,
      "home_runs": 4.319801544661875,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_TOR@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreTOR 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 59.3% → blended 57.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=326

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8821

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.020147226693671-3.469234544762476	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.593365,
    "sample_size": 326,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5491,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.571232,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2709,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8821
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029653355504526916
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02786174997977177
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02764546548875774
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02736946382243815
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02607376838472053
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.047465853544034355,
      "1": 0.0807163148594036,
      "2": 0.11810923718289851,
      "3": 0.14871299198712018,
      "4": 0.161122601748619,
      "5": 0.15021265722930763,
      "6": 0.12050334414127846,
      "7": 0.08318292314933891,
      "8": 0.04940964851234205,
      "9": 0.02525409785179553,
      "10": 0.011106940907530583,
      "11": 0.004203388886331202
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07055060985324824,
      "1": 0.1175551884254167,
      "2": 0.16182564147890574,
      "3": 0.18404218391899868,
      "4": 0.17292266682263013,
      "5": 0.13423042854094866,
      "6": 0.08608243322996255,
      "7": 0.0456081648399422,
      "8": 0.019963430239584804,
      "9": 0.007219252650362391
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0181,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 15,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TOR",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8821,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5777,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8821,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.16,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0181,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.020147226693671,
      "home_runs": 3.469234544762476,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260822_WAS@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIA

Published scoreWAS 3 - 5 MIA

Final confidence60.4%

Calibrationraw 69.0% → blended 62.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=269

H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1736

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6401498038249875-5.490038480280598	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.207302,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.603651,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.603651,
    "away_win_probability": 0.396349
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.207302,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.603651,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.69005,
    "sample_size": 269,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.623825,
    "published_confidence": 0.603651,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0452,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.412,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1736
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03299090823906561
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03287955558878764
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03065686635872331
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03055339168947431
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03052730717747823
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.047869700917840936,
      "1": 0.08137356591788458,
      "2": 0.11894157784734266,
      "3": 0.14948986743113138,
      "4": 0.16155393171163876,
      "5": 0.15012430874350174,
      "6": 0.1199533063723154,
      "7": 0.08241402776842062,
      "8": 0.048687533046205,
      "9": 0.024732163773617966,
      "10": 0.010802746161679914,
      "11": 0.004057270308420982
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09808062131239863,
      "1": 0.15938369704205246,
      "2": 0.20352061531671725,
      "3": 0.20420987523814538,
      "4": 0.16100853388524292,
      "5": 0.09975274909270739,
      "6": 0.04856290673533346,
      "7": 0.018577543901722796,
      "8": 0.005584390009171966,
      "9": 0.0013190674665077026
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0323,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.762,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1736,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.6037,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6103,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6037,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1736,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.412,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0323,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6401498038249875,
      "home_runs": 5.490038480280598,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260822	20260822_ATL@MIL	MIL	57.0%	61.0%	57.1%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	1-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 212, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5708, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5904, "published_confidence": 0.570412, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.025, "away_run_delta": -0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.438, "recent_quality_edge": 0.628, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.5045 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.038936878146366746 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03757159984562853 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.036994360971064434 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03569719487332006 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03359162994218574 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06613152125362134, "1": 0.11061182166219688, "2": 0.15401502332467876, "3": 0.1785225726237161, "4": 0.17226287728607473, "5": 0.13837536092701944, "6": 0.09253251066458872, "7": 0.05151081659389525, "8": 0.023871023101085253, "9": 0.00920899295885664, "10": 0.0029574796042669904 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.10979888694224647, "1": 0.17648989286815564, "2": 0.21810619001349815, "3": 0.20722511684301073, "4": 0.15137112721078733, "5": 0.08500998641191183, "6": 0.03670481998846513, "7": 0.012184353771617524, "8": 0.003109625950307319 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 2 - 4 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 2 - 4 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0092, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.628, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 19, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8947, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5045, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_CHC@SEA	SEA	53.5%	58.6%	53.6%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-5	hit	Variance Applied (-0.0501)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.586278, "sample_size": 330, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.561339, "published_confidence": 0.535209, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0083, "away_run_delta": -0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2674, "recent_quality_edge": -0.228, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9036 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03249968036215316 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03146224764194817 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029898727944298962 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028944321060407133 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028662397087591003 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.055103712443884866, "1": 0.09306816383086422, "2": 0.1334272243406317, "3": 0.16237186417981359, "4": 0.16772589630929907, "5": 0.14706606939362055, "6": 0.10945809072742517, "7": 0.06915224295778424, "8": 0.037084095680478525, "9": 0.01688076539293232, "10": 0.006522582706594364, "11": 0.002139292036671292 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08057882963631069, "1": 0.13305562900261644, "2": 0.17825946143202284, "3": 0.19376662207379902, "4": 0.1708883226638742, "5": 0.12227927251681002, "6": 0.07099051815483624, "7": 0.03343912358503067, "8": 0.012779576651398837, "9": 0.00396264428330119 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.075, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.122, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.9036, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_CIN@ARI	ARI	58.4%	78.1%	55.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	11-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.780914, "sample_size": 203, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5517, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.666307, "published_confidence": 0.584483, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 3.25, "home_run_delta": 0.0812, "away_run_delta": -0.0812, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9419, "recent_quality_edge": 0.496, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7858 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03073347075300155 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030381030802571464 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030253061046900155 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029906130255340065 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027102960868336183 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04016771085540961, "1": 0.06875176824327464, "2": 0.10258566764158429, "3": 0.13343984620907043, "4": 0.15131444976340883, "5": 0.14957923223452746, "6": 0.12890157479582573, "7": 0.09683696581548068, "8": 0.06341911102167674, "9": 0.03620721770986922, "10": 0.018020472887169726, "11": 0.007818676421205243, "12": 0.0029573064014976704 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09540355563926818, "1": 0.15541754316009662, "2": 0.1999350431779848, "3": 0.20310995282377572, "4": 0.1629396926591294, "5": 0.10322288267967017, "6": 0.051639077695081526, "7": 0.02040019757169844, "8": 0.006364197858838214, "9": 0.0015678567344569615 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0724, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.671, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7858, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_CLE@COL	CLE	74.6%	92.0%	52.7%	50.0%	5.0-2.0	4-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 165, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5273, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.72365, "published_confidence": 0.746194, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -8.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0667, "away_run_delta": 0.0667, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.046, "recent_quality_edge": -0.48, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8479 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.03357280733714188 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.0317449455049347 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03147922492143743 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.029404997729416443 }, { "home_runs": 1, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.028526208504083612 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.12663256609672438, "1": 0.2002622666990507, "2": 0.2356908558606407, "3": 0.20643162223014633, "4": 0.13455492654680612, "5": 0.06526988801593413, "6": 0.023562209746888187, "7": 0.006330077888645035, "8": 0.0012655869151641697 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0309784574404988, "1": 0.05347246629840921, "2": 0.08183214639664708, "3": 0.11103016106177574, "4": 0.13356150286988847, "5": 0.14244425060339555, "6": 0.1346889143790324, "7": 0.11291251482039194, "8": 0.08392195805539777, "9": 0.05530093017437471, "10": 0.03230818526073435, "11": 0.016734625310337314, "12": 0.007684979643156694, "13": 0.0031289076859599427 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 2 COL", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 2 COL", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0672, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.83, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_DET@KC	KC	64.6%	67.2%	55.8%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	1-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 269, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.61505, "published_confidence": 0.646151, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.432, "recent_quality_edge": 0.7, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6858 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03855178178113829 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.037597653180524986 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03494091312860861 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03407615090472972 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03348384312344559 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0562912377769053, "1": 0.09497365202121011, "2": 0.13572898582363585, "3": 0.16430440072274863, "4": 0.1684740101178746, "5": 0.14632676012719784, "6": 0.1076519066834862, "7": 0.06708521586893448, "8": 0.0354110694306782, "9": 0.01583282421509305, "10": 0.005996320851962483, "11": 0.0019236163602732626 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.11962698937087504, "1": 0.1904820926793017, "2": 0.22882925238240093, "3": 0.20739645898000428, "4": 0.14181544756862624, "5": 0.07316075020266857, "6": 0.028475094089518208, "7": 0.008361507676383878, "8": 0.0018524070502212004 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 2 - 4 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 2 - 4 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0093, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.77, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 18, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6111, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.6858, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_LAA@TEX	LAA	52.0%	51.0%	50.5%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-0	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 283, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5053, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5077, "published_confidence": 0.520195, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3527, "recent_quality_edge": -0.748, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0325 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0325705482750523 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031460510234559744 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030838877316998078 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029787856417415267 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028481972893989536 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0659682698084132, "1": 0.11035481502532454, "2": 0.15372422548816045, "3": 0.17831512120428752, "4": 0.17223795707243866, "5": 0.13853655736723713, "6": 0.09278862728732384, "7": 0.051751142428905446, "8": 0.02403476975861776, "9": 0.009295116211416437, "10": 0.002993398347875195 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06933098382126685, "1": 0.11564993276034884, "2": 0.15972830964435727, "3": 0.18265724216252924, "4": 0.17294594596757376, "5": 0.1355821028863279, "6": 0.08800611191373939, "7": 0.04729789280700904, "8": 0.02104695344497164, "9": 0.007754524591876275 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0602, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.818, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0325, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_MIN@SD	SD	58.8%	69.7%	55.8%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	5-7	hit	Variance Applied (0.1176)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.696621, "sample_size": 269, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.62711, "published_confidence": 0.588103, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0333, "away_run_delta": -0.0333, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4729, "recent_quality_edge": 0.54, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4964 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.032971808261757524 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03284101488560756 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030651970045411692 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03053037906028708 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03049968315524259 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04781775675157214, "1": 0.08128905405487252, "2": 0.11883466055961055, "3": 0.14939029300654025, "4": 0.16149899237011411, "5": 0.1501362083994189, "6": 0.12002432147881192, "7": 0.08251278846121475, "8": 0.0487799619760317, "9": 0.024798752814402573, "10": 0.010841426026368542, "11": 0.004075784101041949 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0979524410781988, "1": 0.1591943038994671, "2": 0.20335120611987725, "3": 0.20416107727901253, "4": 0.16110392164894694, "5": 0.09991857774118157, "6": 0.04870721998933199, "7": 0.018661536951212854, "8": 0.005619639329413302, "9": 0.0013300759633575853 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0125, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.89, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 25, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4964, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_NYM@CHW	CHW	53.0%	58.7%	53.8%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	10-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.586901, "sample_size": 329, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.538, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.56245, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0167, "away_run_delta": -0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.819, "recent_quality_edge": 0.2, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6024 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0279674039435213 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02722658475223268 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02659844054183176 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025893883363356036 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02541638292301293 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0450067828136388, "1": 0.0767042718165774, "2": 0.11298654862186895, "3": 0.14384658078247164, "4": 0.1582843413566596, "5": 0.15053655501169225, "6": 0.12374042471091566, "7": 0.0879117329288841, "8": 0.05398184069610768, "9": 0.02864930869589152, "10": 0.013141538574906334, "11": 0.005210073990385917 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06471266454186911, "1": 0.10837553033073438, "2": 0.1514745050809554, "3": 0.17669090766535642, "4": 0.17201060142066388, "5": 0.13975346356569818, "6": 0.09476245397022619, "7": 0.05362611935547079, "8": 0.025326944301460222, "9": 0.009982873620675679, "10": 0.003283936146889661 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0116, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.55, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6024, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_OAK@HOU	HOU	55.4%	58.6%	53.6%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 330, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5364, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5614, "published_confidence": 0.554445, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3256, "recent_quality_edge": 0.368, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9904 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027702583586588676 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027104959793227402 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02644013806834924 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025869748827937297 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025106405166027426 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.044570958607581646, "1": 0.07599142764507613, "2": 0.11206885543768588, "3": 0.14295948444565698, "4": 0.15774249802637436, "5": 0.1505539515485037, "6": 0.1242920375285704, "7": 0.08875690712580664, "8": 0.05482374726791946, "9": 0.029291592072316717, "10": 0.01353707832902261, "11": 0.0054114619654854436 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06390490079671034, "1": 0.10709978912027032, "2": 0.1500149059279087, "3": 0.17561902425278467, "4": 0.17183042066885162, "5": 0.14051409621571972, "6": 0.09603534104086493, "7": 0.05485719778290722, "8": 0.026189517841644302, "9": 0.01044991443369975, "10": 0.0034848919186382704 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.019, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.438, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 11, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8182, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9904, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_PIT@LAD	LAD	56.0%	63.7%	57.1%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-4	hit	Variance Applied (0.165)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.636598, "sample_size": 212, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5708, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.603699, "published_confidence": 0.55985, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": 2.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0687, "away_run_delta": -0.0687, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0811, "recent_quality_edge": 0.176, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7643 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026301969549896335 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026015370485576762 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025932163465679038 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02564959398847899 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023184530028156604 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04009710752842986, "1": 0.06863532703943634, "2": 0.10243164330576855, "3": 0.13328225853063752, "4": 0.15120366473492702, "5": 0.14955607599627718, "6": 0.1289726361532676, "7": 0.09697122061935678, "8": 0.06356820063098145, "9": 0.03633195311590572, "10": 0.01810461702061484, "11": 0.007865778456246714, "12": 0.0029795168681505343 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06267833236675618, "1": 0.10515900136669919, "2": 0.14778010132037944, "3": 0.1739506089088908, "4": 0.17150486075281537, "5": 0.14163396058070524, "6": 0.09797129592620683, "7": 0.05676371258412969, "8": 0.027547565133476025, "9": 0.011197888307701064, "10": 0.003812672752240227 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0702, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.351, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7643, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_SF@BOS	BOS	64.7%	88.2%	53.0%	50.0%	3.0-6.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.881506, "sample_size": 166, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5301, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.705803, "published_confidence": 0.646864, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0167, "away_run_delta": -0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.5664, "recent_quality_edge": 0.648, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.245 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026293962636321975 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025764467741318273 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02491299508961129 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.024411309440260775 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024123543752285963 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.023725158030160756, "1": 0.041237562792297504, "2": 0.06443577612347277, "3": 0.09051307847622732, "4": 0.11429988841006508, "5": 0.12975690402166873, "6": 0.1324235850864895, "7": 0.12149276215429146, "8": 0.10020414082506389, "9": 0.07429697459676288, "10": 0.049522982091279, "11": 0.029675131044245875, "12": 0.015985591128761415, "13": 0.007741318819723412, "14": 0.003370166871923536, "15": 0.0013189795275670203 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08706948778450631, "1": 0.14292856417653907, "2": 0.18813110272871655, "3": 0.19855951354246046, "4": 0.16803870581365649, "5": 0.11402930696524267, "6": 0.062045768832153125, "7": 0.02707050670151134, "8": 0.009470417567181904, "9": 0.002656625888032016 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 3 - 6 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 3 - 6 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0697, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.998, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 28, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8214, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.245, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_STL@PHI	STL	53.0%	55.5%	50.5%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	3-12	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.554632, "sample_size": 283, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5053, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.529966, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0375, "away_run_delta": 0.0375, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1188, "recent_quality_edge": 0.188, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.143 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03219042361691482 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03125659452384547 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03064909961548368 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02975998360887481 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0280378609740872 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06844800740655842, "1": 0.11426788635932, "2": 0.15819647179604643, "3": 0.18162624625760493, "4": 0.17292971911716712, "5": 0.1365431380577329, "6": 0.08940860895798024, "7": 0.04855098120072575, "8": 0.021863812754982663, "9": 0.008165128091881572 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06512847933392342, "1": 0.10903151027436492, "2": 0.15222211204181565, "3": 0.1772344266326925, "4": 0.17209293903213463, "5": 0.13935502845825842, "6": 0.09410806911810905, "7": 0.05299998015342958, "8": 0.024892537892384017, "9": 0.009750059647345849, "10": 0.0031848574155418767 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "STL 5 - 3 PHI", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "STL 5 - 3 PHI", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0393, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.188, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 28, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.7143, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.143, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_TB@BAL	TB	53.0%	51.0%	50.5%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	2-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.6703)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 283, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5053, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5077, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": 2.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0635, "away_run_delta": -0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7692, "recent_quality_edge": 0.192, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4328 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03232341502141375 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.031328573947751306 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030716163010647217 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029770789492160426 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028192679586589643 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06875526916681657, "1": 0.11474907271968113, "2": 0.1587308073537907, "3": 0.18198773007802954, "4": 0.17293855798686986, "5": 0.13621044163486556, "6": 0.08891966361926329, "7": 0.0481120723183659, "8": 0.021576408624130104, "9": 0.008019976498187495 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06542078153626509, "1": 0.10949233944235001, "2": 0.15274612537703744, "3": 0.17761315560974728, "4": 0.17214662732657188, "5": 0.1390722134853032, "6": 0.09364846771853098, "7": 0.05256291535961989, "8": 0.024591027447978805, "9": 0.009589420531287899, "10": 0.003116926165307681 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 BAL", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 BAL", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0238, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.402, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 28, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5357, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4328, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_TOR@NYY	NYY	53.0%	59.3%	54.9%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.593365, "sample_size": 326, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5491, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.571232, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2709, "recent_quality_edge": 0.16, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8821 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029653355504526916 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02786174997977177 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02764546548875774 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02736946382243815 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02607376838472053 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.047465853544034355, "1": 0.0807163148594036, "2": 0.11810923718289851, "3": 0.14871299198712018, "4": 0.161122601748619, "5": 0.15021265722930763, "6": 0.12050334414127846, "7": 0.08318292314933891, "8": 0.04940964851234205, "9": 0.02525409785179553, "10": 0.011106940907530583, "11": 0.004203388886331202 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07055060985324824, "1": 0.1175551884254167, "2": 0.16182564147890574, "3": 0.18404218391899868, "4": 0.17292266682263013, "5": 0.13423042854094866, "6": 0.08608243322996255, "7": 0.0456081648399422, "8": 0.019963430239584804, "9": 0.007219252650362391 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0181, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 15, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4667, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8821, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260822	20260822_WAS@MIA	MIA	60.4%	69.0%	55.8%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	2-4	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.69005, "sample_size": 269, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.623825, "published_confidence": 0.603651, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0865, "away_run_delta": -0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0452, "recent_quality_edge": 0.412, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1736 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03299090823906561 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03287955558878764 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03065686635872331 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03055339168947431 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03052730717747823 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.047869700917840936, "1": 0.08137356591788458, "2": 0.11894157784734266, "3": 0.14948986743113138, "4": 0.16155393171163876, "5": 0.15012430874350174, "6": 0.1199533063723154, "7": 0.08241402776842062, "8": 0.048687533046205, "9": 0.024732163773617966, "10": 0.010802746161679914, "11": 0.004057270308420982 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09808062131239863, "1": 0.15938369704205246, "2": 0.20352061531671725, "3": 0.20420987523814538, "4": 0.16100853388524292, "5": 0.09975274909270739, "6": 0.04856290673533346, "7": 0.018577543901722796, "8": 0.005584390009171966, "9": 0.0013190674665077026 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0323, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.762, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1736, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.2333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.8333 }
R	{ "mae": 1.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0667 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.7667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2333 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.2667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1333 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.5333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5333 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.7, "mae_innings": 1.2333, "bias_outs": -0.7667 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260822

20260822_ATL@MIL

away

Martín Pérez

True

5.2

4.0

-5

-2

3/4

4/3

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1526946107784433,
      "WHIP": 1.194610778443114,
      "IP": 111.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.1,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.1949,
              "release_spin_rate": 1968.0743,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2646,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8901,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.191,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0162,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9554,
          "walk_factor": 1.016,
          "homer_factor": 0.9728,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "527048",
            "espn_id": 31098,
            "player_name": "Martin Perez",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 43,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 43,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 287,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 85,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 116,
              "era_value": 3.1526,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 64,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 111.1,
              "ip_rank": 93,
              "h_value": 88.0,
              "h_rank": 110,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 133,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 130,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 41,
              "k_value": 83.0,
              "k_rank": 115,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.709581,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.1946,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.53,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0162,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0162,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9728,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9554,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_ATL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_ATL@MIL

home

Logan Henderson

True

6.0

4/5

1/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.6999999999999997,
      "WHIP": 0.8684210526315789,
      "IP": 63.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.278,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6222,
      "sample_weight": 0.86,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9471,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.058,
      "walk_factor": 0.9295,
      "homer_factor": 0.9814,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.3,
      "bb_percent": 5.0,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.256,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 69,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 63.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.7,
      "season_WHIP": 0.868,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4,
            "WHIP": 0.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 210.0,
            "Pitches": 832.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 83.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4398,
            "WHIP": 0.8675,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27108,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66867,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1988,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15663,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18072
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 943.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5833,
            "R": 1.5833,
            "H": 3.5833,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.25,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 78.5833
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 0.8684,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18947,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.99,
        "predicted_H": 4.362,
        "predicted_BB": 1.377,
        "predicted_SO": 6.548,
        "predicted_HR": 1.075,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0758,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9855
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.99,
          "final": 1.5205,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.362,
          "final": 4.1903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.377,
          "final": 1.1982,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.548,
          "final": 6.7624,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.075,
          "final": 1.0394,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0758,
          "final": 3.0758,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9855,
          "final": 0.9855,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 2.4397590361445785,
        "WHIP": 0.8674698795180724,
        "K9": 10.409638554216869,
        "HR9": 1.6265060240963858,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7669478796174927,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 49,
        "win_pct": 0.6202,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 484.0,
        "run_differential": 160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2403,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9922,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7519,
        "offense_index": 1.1123,
        "defense_index": 1.1962,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2892
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.5814,
        "runs_scored": 609.0,
        "runs_allowed": 498.0,
        "run_differential": 111.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8605,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7209,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8605,
        "offense_index": 1.0519,
        "defense_index": 1.1626,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1396
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1496,
        "offense_edge": 0.1123,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0519,
        "defense_strength": 0.1962,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1626,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0098,
        "run_prevention": 0.9812,
        "strikeout": 1.0003
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701656",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701656",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 215.0,
            "k_percent": 31.3,
            "bb_percent": 5.0,
            "woba": 0.262,
            "xwoba": 0.256,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1739,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.928,
            "whiff_percent": 28.1,
            "swing_percent": 53.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8459,
            "command_and_miss": 0.925,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0987
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701656",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.15725958542238,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.4135705444573,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.15725958542238,
                "release_spin_rate": 2417.4135705444573,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1573,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.4136,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0987,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7051,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6222,
          "sample_weight": 0.86,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9471,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.058,
          "walk_factor": 0.9295,
          "homer_factor": 0.9814,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "701656",
            "espn_id": 4917878,
            "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 69,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 69,
              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 468,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 145,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 116,
              "era_value": 2.7,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 67,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 295,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 63.1,
              "ip_rank": 184,
              "h_value": 43.0,
              "h_rank": 257,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 299,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 143,
              "bb_value": 12.0,
              "bb_rank": 412,
              "k_value": 75.0,
              "k_rank": 136,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.657895,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 0.8684,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.04,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9545,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9545,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9394,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0499,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_ATL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_CHC@SEA

away

David Peterson

True

4.2

6.0

-1

3/4

3/2

3/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.287833827893175,
      "WHIP": 1.5311572700296736,
      "IP": 112.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.021,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3934,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0334,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 1.0324,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 799,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 384.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 76.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.4143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 794.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 79.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.469,
            "WHIP": 1.4069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49655,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01379,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3931,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76552,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12414
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 112.1,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 125.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 95.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 507.0,
            "Pitches": 1852.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.64,
            "R": 2.92,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.88,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.44,
            "BF": 20.28,
            "Pitches": 74.08
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2878,
            "WHIP": 1.5312,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58754,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11276,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4184,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8457,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09792
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.073,
        "predicted_H": 4.861,
        "predicted_BB": 1.842,
        "predicted_SO": 4.062,
        "predicted_HR": 0.516,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9507,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4195
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.073,
          "final": 2.0423,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.861,
          "final": 3.6581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.842,
          "final": 2.3289,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.062,
          "final": 3.6155,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.516,
          "final": 0.2991,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9507,
          "final": 3.9507,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4195,
          "final": 1.4195,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.468965517241379,
        "WHIP": 1.406896551724138,
        "K9": 6.889655172413794,
        "HR9": 1.1172413793103448,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0087192755460341,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "player_name": "David Peterson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          "pitcher_id": "656849",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 91,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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  "findings": [
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      "title": "Earned runs within one",
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    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
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      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
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  "provenance": {
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    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
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}

20260822

20260822_CHC@SEA

home

Kade Anderson

True

0.0

5.2

5/5

2/2

0/5

Last 10 before this game (0 available)

No pregame recent-game rows were available.

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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 0.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.167,
        "predicted_H": 0.325,
        "predicted_BB": 0.122,
        "predicted_SO": 0.317,
        "predicted_HR": 0.049,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5204,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3414
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7725,
      "form_weight": 0.2275,
      "form_reliability": 0.0,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 0.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.0,
        "prior_weight": 1.0
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 0.1,
          "form": 0.1,
          "final": 0.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.167,
          "final": 1.583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 0.325,
          "final": 3.9364,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.122,
          "final": 1.5728,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.317,
          "final": 2.3896,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.049,
          "final": 0.0111,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5204,
          "final": 4.5204,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3414,
          "final": 1.3414,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": null,
    "recent_form_boost": null,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 0.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 0.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.0,
          "prior_weight": 1.0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.1,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 0.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 0.1,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -0.1,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": -0.1,
            "percent_delta": -1.0,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -1.0,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -1.0,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4729,
        "runs_scored": 506.0,
        "runs_allowed": 551.0,
        "run_differential": -45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3488,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9225,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2713,
        "offense_index": 0.8782,
        "defense_index": 1.0457,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.0,
          "run_differential": -26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.066
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5736,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 562.0,
        "run_differential": 99.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7674,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.124,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3566,
        "offense_index": 1.1473,
        "defense_index": 1.0252,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1571
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2231,
        "offense_edge": -0.1218,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1473,
        "defense_strength": 0.0457,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0252,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9866,
        "run_prevention": 1.0302,
        "strikeout": 0.9815
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 0.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 0,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 7,
      "Pitches": 23,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "NO_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "No prior appearances in the source dataset",
      "detail": "The model had no row-level pitching history before this game; any precise box-score line should carry a strong uncertainty warning."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +17 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_CHC@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_CIN@ARI

away

Rhett Lowder

True

4.2

6.0

-1

4/6

6/1

8/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.1683168316831685,
      "WHIP": 1.4851485148514851,
      "IP": 101.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.947,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5535,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.047,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9451,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 1.075,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.338,
      "xwoba": 0.346,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 19.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 199,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.1034,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13793
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 193.0,
            "Pitches": 690.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.3,
            "Pitches": 69.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6512,
            "WHIP": 1.5116,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2093,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30233,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7907,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 101.0,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 82.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 452.0,
            "Pitches": 1702.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6364,
            "R": 2.6818,
            "H": 4.9091,
            "BB": 1.9091,
            "SO": 3.7273,
            "HR": 0.5909,
            "BF": 20.5455,
            "Pitches": 77.3636
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1683,
            "WHIP": 1.4851,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57426,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06931,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41584,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81188,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12871
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.619,
        "predicted_H": 5.142,
        "predicted_BB": 1.571,
        "predicted_SO": 4.046,
        "predicted_HR": 0.702,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6565,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3261
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.619,
          "final": 3.2104,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.142,
          "final": 4.6529,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 1.571,
          "final": 3.4677,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.046,
          "final": 5.7393,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.702,
          "final": 0.4014,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6565,
          "final": 4.6565,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3261,
          "final": 1.3261,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.651162790697675,
        "WHIP": 1.5116279069767442,
        "K9": 7.116279069767442,
        "HR9": 1.255813953488372,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.144334752691183,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 6.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 6,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4729,
        "runs_scored": 523.0,
        "runs_allowed": 621.0,
        "run_differential": -98.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7597,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0543,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.814,
        "offense_index": 0.9076,
        "defense_index": 0.9279,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1516
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5271,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 575.0,
        "run_differential": 13.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1008,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5581,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4574,
        "offense_index": 1.0204,
        "defense_index": 1.0022,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0354
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.187,
        "offense_edge": -0.0924,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0204,
        "defense_strength": -0.0721,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0022,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9895,
        "run_prevention": 1.0198,
        "strikeout": 0.9928
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695076",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695076",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 412.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.338,
            "xwoba": 0.346,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4007,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2569,
            "whiff_percent": 19.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.687,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5486,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7857,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0416
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695076",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.17736124988288,
              "release_spin_rate": 2344.0188135457474,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.17736124988288,
                "release_spin_rate": 2344.0188135457474,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1774,
              "release_spin_rate": 2344.0188,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0416,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2971,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5535,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.047,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9451,
          "walk_factor": 1.004,
          "homer_factor": 1.075,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695076",
            "espn_id": 4758873,
            "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 199,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 199,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 329,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 92,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 98,
              "era_value": 5.1683,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 164,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 34,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 101.0,
              "ip_rank": 103,
              "h_value": 108.0,
              "h_rank": 81,
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": 51,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 98,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 50,
              "k_value": 82.0,
              "k_rank": 120,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3069305,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.4851,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.77,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.047,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.047,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.075,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9451,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 6,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_CIN@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_CIN@ARI

home

Michael Soroka

True

6.0

3.1

-8

5/6

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9347826086956523,
      "WHIP": 1.108695652173913,
      "IP": 92.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.412,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0094,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9992,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
      "walk_factor": 0.93,
      "homer_factor": 0.9877,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.281,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 46,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 92.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.935,
      "season_WHIP": 1.109,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 95.0,
            "Pitches": 359.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 71.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.44,
            "WHIP": 0.88,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 807.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 80.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1273,
            "WHIP": 0.8909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23636,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1185,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.8462,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0094,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9992,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
          "walk_factor": 0.93,
          "homer_factor": 0.9877,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.031,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "647336",
            "espn_id": 34984,
            "player_name": "Michael Soroka",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 46,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 46,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 400,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 106,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 73,
              "era_value": 2.9347,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 214,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 92.0,
              "ip_rank": 117,
              "h_value": 81.0,
              "h_rank": 126,
              "er_value": 30.0,
              "er_rank": 174,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 245,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 239,
              "k_value": 88.0,
              "k_rank": 105,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.608696,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.1086,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.45,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9992,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9992,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.93,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9877,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_CIN@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_CLE@COL

away

Tanner Bibee

True

6.0

5/5

1/1

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.011086474501108,
      "WHIP": 1.1507760532150775,
      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.782,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1896,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0161,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 1.0382,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.304,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 80,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 497.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 26.2,
            "Pitches": 99.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5957,
            "WHIP": 1.1489,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51064,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89362,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25532,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79787,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15957
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 249.0,
            "Pitches": 928.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.9,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9836,
            "WHIP": 1.1148,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44262,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86885,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2459,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63934,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14754
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
            "HR": 25.0,
            "BF": 613.0,
            "Pitches": 2343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5769,
            "R": 2.7308,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6538,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.9615,
            "BF": 23.5769,
            "Pitches": 90.1154
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0111,
            "WHIP": 1.1508,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44568,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86475,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28603,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77827,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1663
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.904,
        "predicted_H": 5.43,
        "predicted_BB": 1.673,
        "predicted_SO": 4.69,
        "predicted_HR": 0.943,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3058,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1703
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.904,
          "final": 2.526,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.43,
          "final": 5.2502,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.673,
          "final": 1.3916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.69,
          "final": 5.2378,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.943,
          "final": 1.385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3058,
          "final": 4.3058,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1703,
          "final": 1.1703,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 3.9836065573770494,
        "WHIP": 1.1147540983606556,
        "K9": 5.754098360655738,
        "HR9": 1.3278688524590163,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9468128312272102,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4884,
        "runs_scored": 516.0,
        "runs_allowed": 531.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1163,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1163,
        "offense_index": 0.8954,
        "defense_index": 1.0852,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.3906,
        "runs_scored": 612.0,
        "runs_allowed": 742.0,
        "run_differential": -130.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0156,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7812,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7969,
        "offense_index": 1.0703,
        "defense_index": 0.7706,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.253
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2288,
        "offense_edge": -0.1046,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0703,
        "defense_strength": 0.0852,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2294,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0089,
        "run_prevention": 0.9913,
        "strikeout": 1.0012
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676440",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676440",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 555.0,
            "k_percent": 19.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.304,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0936,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9976,
            "whiff_percent": 23.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1577,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1743,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.525,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1278
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676440",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.6372863328271,
              "release_spin_rate": 2305.080718513442,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.6372863328271,
                "release_spin_rate": 2305.080718513442,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.6373,
              "release_spin_rate": 2305.0807,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1278,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9131,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1896,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0161,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
          "walk_factor": 0.958,
          "homer_factor": 1.0382,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676440",
            "espn_id": 4345278,
            "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 80,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 80,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 229,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 6,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 10,
              "era_value": 4.011,
              "era_rank": 40.0,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 164,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 1,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 150.1,
              "ip_rank": 9,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 22,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 17,
              "hr_value": 25.0,
              "hr_rank": 9,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 47,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 54,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.004435,
              "k_per_9_rank": 162,
              "whip_value": 1.1507,
              "whip_rank": 23.0,
              "war_value": 1.82,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0161,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0161,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0382,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_CLE@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_CLE@COL

home

Gabriel Hughes

True

4.1

5.0

-1

5/4

1/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.690265486725664,
      "WHIP": 1.3805309734513276,
      "IP": 37.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.952,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1281,
      "sample_weight": 0.568,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9891,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9747,
      "walk_factor": 0.9864,
      "homer_factor": 0.9299,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.328,
      "xwoba": 0.287,
      "barrel_percent": 4.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 28.4,
      "whiff_percent": 19.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 602,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687312",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 410.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.6,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.8714,
            "WHIP": 1.5429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.98571,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12857
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 164.0,
            "Pitches": 639.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.875,
            "BB": 1.625,
            "SO": 4.125,
            "HR": 0.375,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 79.875
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6903,
            "WHIP": 1.3805,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74336,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34513,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87611,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07965
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 164.0,
            "Pitches": 639.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.875,
            "BB": 1.625,
            "SO": 4.125,
            "HR": 0.375,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 79.875
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6903,
            "WHIP": 1.3805,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74336,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34513,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87611,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07965
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.511,
        "predicted_H": 5.046,
        "predicted_BB": 1.644,
        "predicted_SO": 4.102,
        "predicted_HR": 0.59,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.7709,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4336
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.511,
          "final": 3.7616,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.046,
          "final": 4.5099,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.644,
          "final": 1.314,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.102,
          "final": 4.5622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.59,
          "final": 0.8001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.7709,
          "final": 6.7709,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4336,
          "final": 1.4336,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 37.2,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 6.690265486725664,
        "WHIP": 1.3805309734513276,
        "K9": 7.88495575221239,
        "HR9": 0.7168141592920354,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2579563826561961,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687312",
      "player_name": "Gabriel Hughes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.3906,
        "runs_scored": 612.0,
        "runs_allowed": 742.0,
        "run_differential": -130.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0156,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7812,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7969,
        "offense_index": 1.0703,
        "defense_index": 0.7706,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.253
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4884,
        "runs_scored": 516.0,
        "runs_allowed": 531.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1163,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1163,
        "offense_index": 0.8954,
        "defense_index": 1.0852,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2288,
        "offense_edge": 0.0703,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1046,
        "defense_strength": -0.2294,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0852,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9881,
        "run_prevention": 1.0176,
        "strikeout": 1.0015
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687312",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687312",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 142.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.328,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 28.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0144,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.5379,
            "whiff_percent": 19.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3658,
            "command_and_miss": -0.36,
            "regression_edge": 1.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.3286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.037
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687312",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.25935377448579,
              "release_spin_rate": 2175.6094685836038,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.25935377448579,
                "release_spin_rate": 2175.6094685836038,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2594,
              "release_spin_rate": 2175.6095,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.037,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2643,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1281,
          "sample_weight": 0.568,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9891,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9747,
          "walk_factor": 0.9864,
          "homer_factor": 0.9299,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.041,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687312",
            "espn_id": 4634930,
            "player_name": "Gabriel Hughes",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 602,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 602,
              "gp_value": 8.0,
              "gp_rank": 528,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 187,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 172,
              "era_value": 6.6902,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 498,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 153,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 123,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 37.2,
              "ip_rank": 352,
              "h_value": 39.0,
              "h_rank": 296,
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": 186,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 404,
              "bb_value": 13.0,
              "bb_rank": 383,
              "k_value": 33.0,
              "k_rank": 365,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.8849564,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.3805,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.14,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9938,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9938,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9923,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9602,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9856,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_CLE@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_DET@KC

away

Drew Anderson

True

4.1

5.0

1/5

0/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.008733624454149,
      "WHIP": 1.296943231441048,
      "IP": 76.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 43,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2596,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9779,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0417,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.005,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.292,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 28.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 215,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.311,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7538,
        "prior_weight": 0.2462
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 43,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 238.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 12.6,
            "Pitches": 47.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.2391,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84783,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84783,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 89.0,
            "Pitches": 345.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 1.9,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 8.9,
            "Pitches": 34.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3231,
            "WHIP": 1.2462,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83077,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41538,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87692,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 43,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 327.0,
            "Pitches": 1271.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.7907,
            "R": 0.8605,
            "H": 1.6279,
            "BB": 0.6744,
            "SO": 2.0233,
            "HR": 0.2558,
            "BF": 7.6047,
            "Pitches": 29.5581
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0087,
            "WHIP": 1.2969,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44541,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91703,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37991,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13974,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1441
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.205,
        "predicted_H": 2.534,
        "predicted_BB": 1.116,
        "predicted_SO": 2.648,
        "predicted_HR": 0.363,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7886,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2749
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.454,
      "form_weight": 0.546,
      "form_reliability": 0.7538,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.311,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7538,
        "prior_weight": 0.2462
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.205,
          "final": 1.1119,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.534,
          "final": 1.8375,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.116,
          "final": 0.6093,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.648,
          "final": 3.2618,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.363,
          "final": 0.6522,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7886,
          "final": 3.7886,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2749,
          "final": 1.2749,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9121694727664557,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 15.311,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7538,
          "prior_weight": 0.2462
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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              "before": 4.3333,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4766,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 500.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.6172,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9062,
        "offense_index": 1.0128,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0139
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4308,
        "runs_scored": 546.0,
        "runs_allowed": 643.0,
        "run_differential": -97.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9462,
        "offense_index": 0.9404,
        "defense_index": 0.903,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0807
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0668,
        "offense_edge": 0.0128,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0596,
        "defense_strength": 0.1434,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0094,
        "run_prevention": 0.9728,
        "strikeout": 1.0068
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "623454",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "623454",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 284.0,
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            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.292,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4439,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0262,
            "whiff_percent": 28.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1298,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4264,
            "regression_edge": 0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.022
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "623454",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 37,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 37,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.31300835952231,
              "release_spin_rate": 2143.3167063093374,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 37,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.31300835952231,
                "release_spin_rate": 2143.3167063093374,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.313,
              "release_spin_rate": 2143.3167,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.022,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1572,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2596,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9779,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0417,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.005,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "623454",
            "espn_id": 28617,
            "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 215,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 215,
              "gp_value": 43.0,
              "gp_rank": 115,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 204,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 4.0087,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 164,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 153,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 82,
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": 134,
              "ip_value": 76.1,
              "ip_rank": 148,
              "h_value": 70.0,
              "h_rank": 150,
              "er_value": 34.0,
              "er_rank": 151,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 130,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 145,
              "k_value": 87.0,
              "k_rank": 108,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.257642,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.2969,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.65,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9779,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9779,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.005,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0417,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 60,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_DET@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_DET@KC

home

Michael Wacha

True

6.0

7.0

-1

5/3

1/1

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.584582441113491,
      "WHIP": 1.1498929336188437,
      "IP": 155.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.227,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1145,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0097,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.9991,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.314,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 36,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2637,
            "WHIP": 1.0549,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36264,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89011,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16484,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62637,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1978
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 250.0,
            "Pitches": 973.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 97.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5027,
            "WHIP": 1.1189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38919,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90811,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21081,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77838,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17838
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.2,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 632.0,
            "Pitches": 2338.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.48,
            "R": 2.64,
            "H": 5.52,
            "BB": 1.64,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.84,
            "BF": 25.28,
            "Pitches": 93.52
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5846,
            "WHIP": 1.1499,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39829,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88651,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26338,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77088,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1349
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.42,
        "predicted_H": 5.504,
        "predicted_BB": 1.382,
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        "predicted_HR": 1.05,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5964,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1372
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.42,
          "final": 2.2434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.504,
          "final": 5.2921,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.382,
          "final": 1.2214,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.535,
          "final": 4.3101,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.05,
          "final": 1.029,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5964,
          "final": 3.5964,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1372,
          "final": 1.1372,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 3.502702702702703,
        "WHIP": 1.118918918918919,
        "K9": 7.005405405405406,
        "HR9": 1.6054054054054054,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8928152680903028,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4308,
        "runs_scored": 546.0,
        "runs_allowed": 643.0,
        "run_differential": -97.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9462,
        "offense_index": 0.9404,
        "defense_index": 0.903,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0807
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4766,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 500.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.6172,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9062,
        "offense_index": 1.0128,
        "defense_index": 1.1434,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0139
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0668,
        "offense_edge": -0.0596,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0128,
        "defense_strength": -0.097,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1434,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9939,
        "run_prevention": 1.0151,
        "strikeout": 0.997
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608379",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608379",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 584.0,
            "k_percent": 19.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.314,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.1776,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6861,
            "whiff_percent": 21.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0209,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2907,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1615
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608379",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.03665415181123,
              "release_spin_rate": 1985.1515583535293,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.03665415181123,
                "release_spin_rate": 1985.1515583535293,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0367,
              "release_spin_rate": 1985.1516,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1615,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1534,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1145,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0097,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.9991,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608379",
            "espn_id": 32640,
            "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 36,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 36,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 253,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 19,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 4,
              "era_value": 3.5845,
              "era_rank": 28.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 90,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 34,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 155.2,
              "ip_rank": 5,
              "h_value": 138.0,
              "h_rank": 15,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 33,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 19,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 61,
              "k_value": 120.0,
              "k_rank": 50,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.937901,
              "k_per_9_rank": 270,
              "whip_value": 1.1498,
              "whip_rank": 22.0,
              "war_value": 2.71,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9571,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_DET@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_LAA@TEX

away

Ryan Johnson

True

4.1

7.0

-3

6/1

1/2

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.414364640883978,
      "WHIP": 1.5414364640883977,
      "IP": 60.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.611,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6247,
      "sample_weight": 0.996,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0531,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9596,
      "walk_factor": 1.0319,
      "homer_factor": 1.1177,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.37,
      "xwoba": 0.359,
      "barrel_percent": 11.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 804,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
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              "release_spin_rate": 2258.6257183078797,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.09651588030943,
                "release_spin_rate": 2258.6257183078797,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0965,
              "release_spin_rate": 2258.6257,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1581,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1294,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6247,
          "sample_weight": 0.996,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0531,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9596,
          "walk_factor": 1.0319,
          "homer_factor": 1.1177,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696270",
            "espn_id": 5007859,
            "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 804,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 804,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 428,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 145,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 172,
              "era_value": 6.4143,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 287,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 64,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 60.1,
              "ip_rank": 191,
              "h_value": 64.0,
              "h_rank": 160,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 118,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 60,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 145,
              "k_value": 47.0,
              "k_rank": 277,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0110497,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39,
              "whip_value": 1.5414,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.99,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0529,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0529,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0318,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1172,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9598,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_LAA@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_LAA@TEX

home

Cody Bradford

True

5.1

1/7

0/0

7/3

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.934782608695652,
      "WHIP": 1.434782608695652,
      "IP": 15.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.356,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0303,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9727,
      "walk_factor": 0.9739,
      "homer_factor": 1.0582,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.369,
      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 249,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 65.0,
            "Pitches": 226.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.6667,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 3.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 21.6667,
            "Pitches": 75.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9348,
            "WHIP": 1.4348,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 65.0,
            "Pitches": 226.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.6667,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 3.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 21.6667,
            "Pitches": 75.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9348,
            "WHIP": 1.4348,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 65.0,
            "Pitches": 226.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.6667,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 3.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9348,
            "WHIP": 1.4348,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.181,
        "predicted_H": 5.248,
        "predicted_BB": 1.634,
        "predicted_SO": 4.194,
        "predicted_HR": 0.585,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9258,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3764
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6141,
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      "form_reliability": 0.375,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.181,
          "final": 2.0699,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.248,
          "final": 2.6395,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.634,
          "final": 0.6306,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.194,
          "final": 5.9171,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.585,
          "final": 0.2258,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9258,
          "final": 3.9258,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3764,
          "final": 1.3764,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 15.1,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.9347826086956523,
        "WHIP": 1.4347826086956523,
        "K9": 5.869565217391305,
        "HR9": 0.5869565217391305,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9183432820498811,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.375,
          "prior_weight": 0.625
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.02,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 0.02,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 129,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.4961,
        "runs_scored": 516.0,
        "runs_allowed": 561.0,
        "run_differential": -45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3488,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3488,
        "offense_index": 0.8956,
        "defense_index": 1.027,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0813
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 51,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.3953,
        "runs_scored": 531.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": -71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5504,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1163,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6667,
        "offense_index": 0.9216,
        "defense_index": 0.9571,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.3,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1218
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0405,
        "offense_edge": -0.1044,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0784,
        "defense_strength": 0.027,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0429,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0056,
        "run_prevention": 0.9827,
        "strikeout": 1.0075
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 45.0,
            "k_percent": 15.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.2,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.369,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 84.0241,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.2644,
            "whiff_percent": 21.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.0059,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4821,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.94495238095239,
              "release_spin_rate": 1876.9509523809525,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 83.94495238095239,
                "release_spin_rate": 1876.9509523809525,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.945,
              "release_spin_rate": 1876.951,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.356,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0303,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9727,
          "walk_factor": 0.9739,
          "homer_factor": 1.0582,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "674003",
            "espn_id": 4142539,
            "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 249,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 249,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 663,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 239,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 172,
              "era_value": 2.9347,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 498,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 393,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 15.1,
              "ip_rank": 528,
              "h_value": 18.0,
              "h_rank": 498,
              "er_value": 5.0,
              "er_rank": 612,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 578,
              "bb_value": 4.0,
              "bb_rank": 612,
              "k_value": 10.0,
              "k_rank": 555,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.869565,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.4347,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.46,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0136,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0136,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9883,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0262,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9877,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_LAA@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_MIN@SD

away

Dean Kremer

True

5.0

5.1

4/3

3/3

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.3999999999999995,
      "WHIP": 1.18125,
      "IP": 53.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0671,
      "sample_weight": 0.776,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9943,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0231,
      "walk_factor": 0.9736,
      "homer_factor": 0.9895,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 450,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5854,
            "WHIP": 1.2439,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91463,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32927,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87805,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14634
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 86.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.1812,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24375
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 86.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.1812,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24375
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.29,
        "predicted_H": 4.934,
        "predicted_BB": 1.776,
        "predicted_SO": 4.992,
        "predicted_HR": 0.935,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5514,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2581
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.29,
          "final": 2.6568,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.934,
          "final": 4.4756,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.776,
          "final": 2.3768,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.992,
          "final": 4.5051,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.935,
          "final": 0.4761,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5514,
          "final": 5.5514,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2581,
          "final": 1.2581,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 5.4,
        "WHIP": 1.1812500000000001,
        "K9": 8.943750000000001,
        "HR9": 2.19375,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.107819491063276,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
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            {
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4884,
        "runs_scored": 594.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3488,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
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          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5349,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0543,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2016,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
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        },
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "665152",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665152",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1853
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "665152",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.6105820856605,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            },
            "components": {
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              "extension_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0671,
          "sample_weight": 0.776,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9943,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "665152",
            "espn_id": 38295,
            "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 450,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 450,
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              "k_rank": 230,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.94375,
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              "whip_value": 1.1812,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 4,
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      "predicted_BB": 3,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_MIN@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_MIN@SD

home

Casey Mize

True

5.2

2.2

-9

5/4

3/1

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 102.0,
      "games_started": null,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "woba": 0.273,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 35,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 102.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.176,
      "season_WHIP": 1.069,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      },
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
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      "player_id": "663554",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2973,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01351,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28378,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 50.0,
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            "SO": 46.0,
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            "Pitches": 867.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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          },
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            "H_per_IP": 0.92025,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23926,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84663,
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            "SO": 95.0,
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          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.93137,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06863
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        }
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        "predicted_SO": 4.439,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        },
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
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          "final": 4.106,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "player_name": "Casey Mize",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5349,
        "runs_scored": 549.0,
        "runs_allowed": 542.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0543,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2558,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2016,
        "offense_index": 0.9516,
        "defense_index": 1.0645,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1063
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4884,
        "runs_scored": 594.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": -45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3488,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6047,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9535,
        "offense_index": 1.0296,
        "defense_index": 0.9029,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0528
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1591,
        "offense_edge": -0.0484,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0296,
        "defense_strength": 0.0645,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0971,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0071,
        "run_prevention": 0.9903,
        "strikeout": 1.0024
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663554",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663554",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 385.0,
            "k_percent": 23.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.273,
            "xwoba": 0.283,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7065,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4434,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2157,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0063
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663554",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.03228158969657,
              "release_spin_rate": 2098.5726027069522,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.03228158969657,
                "release_spin_rate": 2098.5726027069522,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0323,
              "release_spin_rate": 2098.5726,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0063,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0449,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2763,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9765,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 0.9821,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663554",
            "espn_id": 41167,
            "player_name": "Casey Mize",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 35,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 35,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 368,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 92,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 48,
              "era_value": 3.1764,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 117,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 64,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 102.0,
              "ip_rank": 101,
              "h_value": 84.0,
              "h_rank": 118,
              "er_value": 36.0,
              "er_rank": 146,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 207,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 191,
              "k_value": 95.0,
              "k_rank": 93,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.382353,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.0686,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.74,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9765,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9765,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9821,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_MIN@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_NYM@CHW

away

Christian Scott

True

5.0

4.2

-1

4/5

3/4

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5078740157480315,
      "WHIP": 1.2874015748031495,
      "IP": 84.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.704,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.187,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9841,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0434,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 0.9715,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.304,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 86,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681035",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
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        },
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    },
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "681035",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0126
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681035",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.14585132299509,
              "release_spin_rate": 2347.464230297421,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 86,
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            "metrics": {
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
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      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_NYM@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_NYM@CHW

home

Luis Castillo

True

5.1

2.2

-8

3/8

4/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 115.1,
      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.2,
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    },
    "savant": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "622491",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "622491",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "622491",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.83201706477074,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 91,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.832,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Luis Castillo",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
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              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 46,
              "er_value": 64.0,
              "er_rank": 24,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 27,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 81,
              "k_value": 102.0,
              "k_rank": 79,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.9595375,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.3699,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.65,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0295,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0295,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0955,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9851,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_NYM@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_OAK@HOU

away

Jacob Lopez

True

4.2

6.0

-2

4/3

3/1

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.215909090909091,
      "WHIP": 1.5340909090909092,
      "IP": 88.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3175,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.973,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
      "walk_factor": 1.05,
      "homer_factor": 0.898,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 11.6,
      "woba": 0.347,
      "xwoba": 0.288,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 28.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 224,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 461.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2235,
            "WHIP": 1.1294,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24706,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77647,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12941,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 185.0,
            "Pitches": 767.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.5,
            "Pitches": 76.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2955,
            "WHIP": 1.2727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47727,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90909,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11364,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 88.0,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 81.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 396.0,
            "Pitches": 1598.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.55,
            "R": 2.65,
            "H": 4.45,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.05,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 79.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2159,
            "WHIP": 1.5341,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57955,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01136,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92045,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17045
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.084,
        "predicted_H": 4.466,
        "predicted_BB": 1.934,
        "predicted_SO": 5.293,
        "predicted_HR": 0.668,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7418,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2767
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.084,
          "final": 2.0475,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.466,
          "final": 4.2635,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.934,
          "final": 2.3972,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.293,
          "final": 5.6002,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.668,
          "final": 0.3778,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7418,
          "final": 3.7418,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2767,
          "final": 1.2767,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 49,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.295454545454546,
        "WHIP": 1.272727272727273,
        "K9": 10.022727272727275,
        "HR9": 0.8181818181818183,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.985845059245094,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 49,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3798,
        "runs_scored": 557.0,
        "runs_allowed": 746.0,
        "run_differential": -189.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4651,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3178,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7829,
        "offense_index": 0.9668,
        "defense_index": 0.7723,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.2,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3876
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5039,
        "runs_scored": 587.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3256,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5504,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.876,
        "offense_index": 1.0188,
        "defense_index": 0.916,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0368
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3508,
        "offense_edge": -0.0332,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0188,
        "defense_strength": -0.2277,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.084,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9784,
        "run_prevention": 1.0433,
        "strikeout": 0.988
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682052",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682052",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 370.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 11.6,
            "woba": 0.347,
            "xwoba": 0.288,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 28.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 72.4829,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.4219,
            "whiff_percent": 24.4,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.438,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2843,
            "regression_edge": 1.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1429,
            "bb_edge": -0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682052",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.44575706164146,
              "release_spin_rate": 2261.9043301766055,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.44575706164146,
                "release_spin_rate": 2261.9043301766055,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.4458,
              "release_spin_rate": 2261.9043,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3175,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.973,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
          "walk_factor": 1.05,
          "homer_factor": 0.898,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.059,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682052",
            "espn_id": 42239,
            "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 224,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 224,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 359,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 106,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 149,
              "era_value": 5.2159,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 117,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 153,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 250,
              "ip_value": 88.0,
              "ip_rank": 128,
              "h_value": 89.0,
              "h_rank": 108,
              "er_value": 51.0,
              "er_rank": 78,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 66,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 34,
              "k_value": 81.0,
              "k_rank": 125,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.284091,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.534,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.62,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.973,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.973,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.05,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.898,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9846,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_OAK@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_OAK@HOU

home

Hunter Brown

True

5.2

-2

5/7

1/3

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.669902912621359,
      "WHIP": 1.2961165048543688,
      "IP": 68.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.282,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1907,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9838,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0189,
      "walk_factor": 1.092,
      "homer_factor": 0.9755,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.7,
      "bb_percent": 13.7,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 133,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 466.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1395,
            "WHIP": 1.0814,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66279,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01163,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 926.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 3.1,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4713,
            "WHIP": 1.3758,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78344,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59236,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9172,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 68.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 291.0,
            "Pitches": 1198.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1538,
            "R": 2.3077,
            "H": 3.7692,
            "BB": 3.0769,
            "SO": 5.5385,
            "HR": 0.6923,
            "BF": 22.3846,
            "Pitches": 92.1538
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6699,
            "WHIP": 1.2961,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40777,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71359,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58252,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04854,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13107
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.421,
        "predicted_H": 4.358,
        "predicted_BB": 2.61,
        "predicted_SO": 5.403,
        "predicted_HR": 0.824,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9364,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.259
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4674,
      "form_weight": 0.5326,
      "form_reliability": 0.7222,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.421,
          "final": 2.6916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.358,
          "final": 4.6581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.61,
          "final": 1.8575,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.403,
          "final": 5.682,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.824,
          "final": 0.9063,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9364,
          "final": 3.9364,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.259,
          "final": 1.259,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 31,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.471337579617834,
        "WHIP": 1.375796178343949,
        "K9": 8.254777070063694,
        "HR9": 1.5477707006369426,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0082086232288807,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7222,
          "prior_weight": 0.2778
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5039,
        "runs_scored": 587.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3256,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5504,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.876,
        "offense_index": 1.0188,
        "defense_index": 0.916,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0368
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 49,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3798,
        "runs_scored": 557.0,
        "runs_allowed": 746.0,
        "run_differential": -189.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4651,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3178,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7829,
        "offense_index": 0.9668,
        "defense_index": 0.7723,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.2,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3876
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3508,
        "offense_edge": 0.0188,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0332,
        "defense_strength": -0.084,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2277,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0128,
        "run_prevention": 0.9855,
        "strikeout": 1.0132
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 269.0,
            "k_percent": 24.7,
            "bb_percent": 13.7,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 73.3848,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3964,
            "whiff_percent": 26.2,
            "swing_percent": 40.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3406,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0293,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1298
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.23767469659295,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.4427614314823,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.23767469659295,
                "release_spin_rate": 2203.4427614314823,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.2377,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.4428,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1298,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.927,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1907,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9838,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0189,
          "walk_factor": 1.092,
          "homer_factor": 0.9755,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_id": 4717803,
            "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 133,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 133,
              "gp_value": 13.0,
              "gp_rank": 460,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 141,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 98,
              "era_value": 3.6699,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 223,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 214,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 68.2,
              "ip_rank": 164,
              "h_value": 49.0,
              "h_rank": 213,
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": 186,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 157,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 65,
              "k_value": 72.0,
              "k_rank": 147,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.436893,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.2961,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9838,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9838,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.092,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9755,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_OAK@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_PIT@LAD

away

Jared Jones

True

4.2

4.0

-2

5/3

2/5

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.78125,
      "WHIP": 1.203125,
      "IP": 64.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.571,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2615,
      "sample_weight": 0.992,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9778,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0578,
      "walk_factor": 0.9742,
      "homer_factor": 1.0225,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 31.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 212,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 397.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 79.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0,
            "WHIP": 1.375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 191.0,
            "Pitches": 747.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 19.1,
            "Pitches": 74.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2429,
            "WHIP": 1.05,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.0,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 269.0,
            "Pitches": 1048.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4286,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.1429,
            "HR": 0.7857,
            "BF": 19.2143,
            "Pitches": 74.8571
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7812,
            "WHIP": 1.2031,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32812,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17188
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.581,
        "predicted_H": 4.224,
        "predicted_BB": 1.643,
        "predicted_SO": 4.881,
        "predicted_HR": 0.867,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9779,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.257
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.581,
          "final": 3.2354,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.224,
          "final": 4.5819,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.643,
          "final": 1.8076,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.881,
          "final": 5.3971,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.867,
          "final": 0.4671,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9779,
          "final": 4.9779,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.257,
          "final": 1.257,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.242857142857143,
        "WHIP": 1.05,
        "K9": 10.414285714285715,
        "HR9": 1.35,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9743596696347043,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4846,
        "runs_scored": 650.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": 30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7692,
        "offense_index": 1.1195,
        "defense_index": 0.9365,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0153
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6047,
        "runs_scored": 645.0,
        "runs_allowed": 499.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1318,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8682,
        "offense_index": 1.1195,
        "defense_index": 1.1546,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2984
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2831,
        "offense_edge": 0.1195,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1195,
        "defense_strength": -0.0635,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1546,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.982,
        "run_prevention": 1.0396,
        "strikeout": 0.9819
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 248.0,
            "k_percent": 26.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2219,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2793,
            "whiff_percent": 31.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0413,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6407,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2092
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.65496253351449,
              "release_spin_rate": 2507.2309948935354,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.65496253351449,
                "release_spin_rate": 2507.2309948935354,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.655,
              "release_spin_rate": 2507.231,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2092,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.494,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2615,
          "sample_weight": 0.992,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9778,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0578,
          "walk_factor": 0.9742,
          "homer_factor": 1.0225,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683003",
            "espn_id": 4918156,
            "player_name": "Jared Jones",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 212,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 212,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 446,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 132,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 131,
              "era_value": 4.7812,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 287,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 120,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 64.0,
              "ip_rank": 179,
              "h_value": 56.0,
              "h_rank": 182,
              "er_value": 34.0,
              "er_rank": 151,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 130,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 239,
              "k_value": 72.0,
              "k_rank": 147,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.125,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.2031,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.67,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9744,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0573,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_PIT@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_PIT@LAD

home

Tarik Skubal

True

6.0

7.0

4/5

1/1

7/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.850439882697947,
      "WHIP": 0.9589442815249266,
      "IP": 113.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.982,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7028,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9403,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0834,
      "walk_factor": 0.908,
      "homer_factor": 0.961,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.3,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.27,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 31.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9032,
            "WHIP": 1.0323,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32258,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74194,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19355,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 0.9,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 113.2,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 135.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 446.0,
            "Pitches": 1720.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8947,
            "R": 2.1053,
            "H": 4.6842,
            "BB": 1.0526,
            "SO": 7.1053,
            "HR": 0.6316,
            "BF": 23.4737,
            "Pitches": 90.5263
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8504,
            "WHIP": 0.9589,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31672,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78299,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17595,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18768,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10557
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.159,
        "predicted_H": 4.806,
        "predicted_BB": 1.609,
        "predicted_SO": 7.168,
        "predicted_HR": 0.629,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1754,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0484
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.159,
          "final": 2.5274,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.609,
          "final": 1.3423,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 7.168,
          "final": 6.6564,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.629,
          "final": 0.7915,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1754,
          "final": 3.1754,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0484,
          "final": 1.0484,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "H": 42,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 78,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.7,
        "WHIP": 0.9,
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        "HR9": 1.05,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7970382410632759,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "669373",
      "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
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      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6047,
        "runs_scored": 645.0,
        "runs_allowed": 499.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1318,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8682,
        "offense_index": 1.1195,
        "defense_index": 1.1546,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2984
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4846,
        "runs_scored": 650.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": 30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7692,
        "offense_index": 1.1195,
        "defense_index": 0.9365,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0153
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2831,
        "offense_edge": 0.1195,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1195,
        "defense_strength": 0.1546,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0635,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0112,
        "run_prevention": 0.9895,
        "strikeout": 0.9989
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 417.0,
            "k_percent": 30.3,
            "bb_percent": 4.5,
            "woba": 0.268,
            "xwoba": 0.27,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7007,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5327,
            "whiff_percent": 31.9,
            "swing_percent": 53.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7446,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0757,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9286,
            "bb_edge": 1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1488
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.57660227672623,
              "release_spin_rate": 2164.27053568276,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.57660227672623,
                "release_spin_rate": 2164.27053568276,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5766,
              "release_spin_rate": 2164.2705,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1488,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0626,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7028,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9403,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0834,
          "walk_factor": 0.908,
          "homer_factor": 0.961,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669373",
            "espn_id": 42409,
            "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 18,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 18,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 368,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 92,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 35,
              "era_value": 2.8504,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 67,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 64,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 113.2,
              "ip_rank": 87,
              "h_value": 89.0,
              "h_rank": 108,
              "er_value": 36.0,
              "er_rank": 146,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 115,
              "bb_value": 20.0,
              "bb_rank": 253,
              "k_value": 135.0,
              "k_rank": 32,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.689149,
              "k_per_9_rank": 9,
              "whip_value": 0.9589,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9403,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9403,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.908,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.961,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0834,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_PIT@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_SF@BOS

away

Blade Tidwell

True

5.0

5.2

-3

5/3

3/2

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.333333333333333,
      "WHIP": 1.2222222222222223,
      "IP": 27.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0243,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9979,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9941,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0022,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 390,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "effective_weights": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.875,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0403511502933973,
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
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      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4062,
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        "run_differential": -78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6094,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 484.0,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694918",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694918",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.01
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694918",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 55,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 55,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 55,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7409,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -0.0716,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.0243,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
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            "espn_rank": 390,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
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              "w_rank": 498,
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              "l_rank": 550,
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              "er_rank": 413,
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              "k_per_9_value": 6.6666665,
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              "whip_value": 1.2222,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9991,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_SF@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_SF@BOS

home

Patrick Sandoval

True

5.0

5.2

-1

7/5

1/2

7/6

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.764705882352941,
      "WHIP": 1.8529411764705883,
      "IP": 34.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.857,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0682,
      "sample_weight": 0.54,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9994,
      "walk_factor": 1.0097,
      "homer_factor": 0.9799,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.383,
      "xwoba": 0.334,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.4,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 673,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663776",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 438.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 87.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7432,
            "WHIP": 1.9054,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52703,
            "H_per_IP": 1.33784,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56757,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01351,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 160.0,
            "Pitches": 579.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5714,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.7143,
            "BB": 2.2857,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 22.8571,
            "Pitches": 82.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.8529,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 1.38235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47059,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02941,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 160.0,
            "Pitches": 579.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5714,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.7143,
            "BB": 2.2857,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 22.8571,
            "Pitches": 82.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.8529,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 1.38235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47059,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02941,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.585,
        "predicted_H": 5.964,
        "predicted_BB": 2.351,
        "predicted_SO": 4.948,
        "predicted_HR": 0.55,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6534,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6631
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.585,
          "final": 2.8033,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.964,
          "final": 5.9829,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.351,
          "final": 1.6403,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.948,
          "final": 6.0275,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.55,
          "final": 0.2607,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6534,
          "final": 4.6534,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6631,
          "final": 1.6631,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 34.0,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.764705882352941,
        "WHIP": 1.8529411764705883,
        "K9": 9.264705882352942,
        "HR9": 0.7941176470588235,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0531411822397463,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663776",
      "player_name": "Patrick Sandoval",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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        "games": 128,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5391,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 484.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7578,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7812,
        "offense_index": 1.0163,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663776",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663776",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0143,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0816
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663776",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.46294741055159,
              "release_spin_rate": 2188.7206510923947,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.46294741055159,
                "release_spin_rate": 2188.7206510923947,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4629,
              "release_spin_rate": 2188.7207,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0816,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5828,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0682,
          "sample_weight": 0.54,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9994,
          "walk_factor": 1.0097,
          "homer_factor": 0.9799,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.049,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663776",
            "espn_id": 40975,
            "player_name": "Patrick Sandoval",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 673,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 673,
              "gp_value": 7.0,
              "gp_rank": 555,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 187,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 172,
              "era_value": 4.7647,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 383,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 295,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 34.0,
              "ip_rank": 379,
              "h_value": 47.0,
              "h_rank": 223,
              "er_value": 18.0,
              "er_rank": 317,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 404,
              "bb_value": 16.0,
              "bb_rank": 330,
              "k_value": 35.0,
              "k_rank": 354,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.264707,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.8529,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.29,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0052,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9997,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_SF@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_STL@PHI

away

Quinn Mathews

True

4.2

5.0

2/10

1/1

7/3

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0,
      "WHIP": 1.5555555555555556,
      "IP": 9.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.5,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.25,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9788,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0113,
      "walk_factor": 1.0495,
      "homer_factor": 0.9253,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 14.6,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.273,
      "barrel_percent": 4.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 24.0,
      "whiff_percent": 27.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 331,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 192.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.5556,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 192.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.5556,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 192.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.5556,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.902,
        "predicted_H": 3.983,
        "predicted_BB": 1.894,
        "predicted_SO": 4.176,
        "predicted_HR": 0.576,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.086,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4026
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6518,
      "form_weight": 0.3482,
      "form_reliability": 0.2857,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.902,
          "final": 1.9659,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.983,
          "final": 2.6905,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.894,
          "final": 1.3113,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.176,
          "final": 6.0167,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.576,
          "final": 0.2006,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.086,
          "final": 4.086,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4026,
          "final": 1.4026,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.0,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 3.0,
        "WHIP": 1.5555555555555556,
        "K9": 10.0,
        "HR9": 1.0,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9551129011341117,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2857,
          "prior_weight": 0.7143
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.2,
              "percent_delta": 0.05,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.2,
              "percent_delta": 0.05,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": 0.2,
            "percent_delta": 0.05,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": 0.2,
            "percent_delta": 0.05,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5077,
        "runs_scored": 578.0,
        "runs_allowed": 569.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3769,
        "offense_index": 0.9942,
        "defense_index": 1.0218,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0501
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5504,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 565.0,
        "run_differential": 16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.124,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5039,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3798,
        "offense_index": 1.0071,
        "defense_index": 1.0211,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1631
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.113,
        "offense_edge": -0.0058,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0071,
        "defense_strength": 0.0218,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0211,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9959,
        "run_prevention": 1.0046,
        "strikeout": 0.996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687273",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687273",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 24.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 14.6,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.273,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 24.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.5309,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.3386,
            "whiff_percent": 27.6,
            "swing_percent": 45.3
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8134,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0236,
            "regression_edge": 1.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.6889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.9571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -1.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1019
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687273",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.10103092783504,
              "release_spin_rate": 2106.8865979381444,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.10103092783504,
                "release_spin_rate": 2106.8865979381444,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.101,
              "release_spin_rate": 2106.8866,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1019,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7276,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.25,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9788,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0113,
          "walk_factor": 1.0495,
          "homer_factor": 0.9253,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.04,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687273",
            "espn_id": 4837405,
            "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 331,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 331,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 715,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 262,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 3.0,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 498,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 393,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 9.0,
              "ip_rank": 600,
              "h_value": 8.0,
              "h_rank": 628,
              "er_value": 3.0,
              "er_rank": 673,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 578,
              "bb_value": 6.0,
              "bb_rank": 545,
              "k_value": 10.0,
              "k_rank": 555,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.5555,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9664,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0051,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 8",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +8."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_STL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_STL@PHI

home

Andrew Painter

True

4.1

7.0

-3

5/5

3/0

3/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 6.43359375,
      "WHIP": 1.546875,
      "IP": 85.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.708,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3274,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0278,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 1.0388,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.9,
      "woba": 0.369,
      "xwoba": 0.344,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 661,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4328,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71642,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53731,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9403,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22388
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 790.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6084,
            "WHIP": 1.5105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73427,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77622,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20979
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 85.1,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 61.0,
            "H": 98.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 383.0,
            "Pitches": 1473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3889,
            "R": 3.3889,
            "H": 5.4444,
            "BB": 1.8889,
            "SO": 3.9444,
            "HR": 0.9444,
            "BF": 21.2778,
            "Pitches": 81.8333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4336,
            "WHIP": 1.5469,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71484,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14844,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39844,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83203,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19922
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.069,
        "predicted_H": 4.524,
        "predicted_BB": 2.082,
        "predicted_SO": 4.007,
        "predicted_HR": 0.908,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0706,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4521
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.069,
          "final": 2.5967,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.524,
          "final": 4.2925,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.082,
          "final": 2.4876,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.007,
          "final": 3.5621,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.908,
          "final": 0.5068,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0706,
          "final": 6.0706,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4521,
          "final": 1.4521,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.608391608391608,
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        "K9": 6.986013986013987,
        "HR9": 1.8881118881118881,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2519945347695693,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          {
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          },
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5504,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 565.0,
        "run_differential": 16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.124,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5039,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3798,
        "offense_index": 1.0071,
        "defense_index": 1.0211,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1631
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5077,
        "runs_scored": 578.0,
        "runs_allowed": 569.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3769,
        "offense_index": 0.9942,
        "defense_index": 1.0218,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0501
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.113,
        "offense_edge": 0.0071,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0058,
        "defense_strength": 0.0211,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0218,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0054,
        "run_prevention": 0.9913,
        "strikeout": 1.0039
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691725",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691725",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 357.0,
            "k_percent": 18.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.9,
            "woba": 0.369,
            "xwoba": 0.344,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.5421,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6631,
            "whiff_percent": 22.9,
            "swing_percent": 48.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5508,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3529,
            "regression_edge": 0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0171
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691725",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.22481677567575,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.247030541709,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.22481677567575,
                "release_spin_rate": 2288.247030541709,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2248,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.247,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0171,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1219,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3274,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0278,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
          "walk_factor": 0.996,
          "homer_factor": 1.0388,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "691725",
            "espn_id": 4872683,
            "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 661,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 661,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 381,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 114,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 131,
              "era_value": 6.4335,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 287,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 34,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 85.1,
              "ip_rank": 132,
              "h_value": 98.0,
              "h_rank": 97,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 37,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 48,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 103,
              "k_value": 71.0,
              "k_rank": 155,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4882812,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.5468,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.24,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0278,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0278,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0388,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9646,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_STL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_TB@BAL

away

Shane McClanahan

True

5.0

-3

4/4

2/1

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.254071661237785,
      "WHIP": 1.1237785016286646,
      "IP": 102.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.873,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0685,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0086,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 1.0536,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.272,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 123,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 102.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.254,
      "season_WHIP": 1.124,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663556",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
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            "Pitches": 349.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
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            "H": 3.0,
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30882,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.1,
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            "Pitches": 731.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
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            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.6,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1831,
            "WHIP": 1.2465,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90845,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33803,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8662,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
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            "IP": 102.1,
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            "H": 80.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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            "R": 2.0952,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1238,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36156,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34202,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07818
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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        "predicted_H": 3.881,
        "predicted_BB": 1.596,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.137,
          "final": 2.5092,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.881,
          "final": 3.9323,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
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          "final": 1.7702,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.061,
          "final": 4.4659,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.522,
          "final": 0.2969,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0207,
          "final": 4.0207,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1446,
          "final": 1.1446,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.1,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.183098591549296,
        "WHIP": 1.2464788732394365,
        "K9": 7.795774647887324,
        "HR9": 1.1408450704225352,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9725488044435575,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663556",
      "player_name": "Shane McClanahan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 52,
        "win_pct": 0.5938,
        "runs_scored": 582.0,
        "runs_allowed": 539.0,
        "run_differential": 43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3359,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2109,
        "offense_index": 1.018,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0861
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4806,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2636,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4884,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7519,
        "offense_index": 1.0049,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 3.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.049
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1351,
        "offense_edge": 0.018,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0049,
        "defense_strength": 0.0606,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.007,
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        "strikeout": 1.0037
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663556",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663556",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 407.0,
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            "woba": 0.272,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.4276,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0454,
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            "regression_edge": -1.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0127
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663556",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.69374543668859,
              "release_spin_rate": 2097.702326108769,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 72,
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                "release_speed": 89.69374543668859,
                "release_spin_rate": 2097.702326108769,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6937,
              "release_spin_rate": 2097.7023,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.0905,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0685,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Shane McClanahan",
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            "espn_rank": 123,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 342,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
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              "qs_value": 4.0,
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              "era_value": 3.254,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 28,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 94,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
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              "h_value": 80.0,
              "h_rank": 131,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 140,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 185,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 91,
              "k_value": 94.0,
              "k_rank": 97,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.267101,
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              "whip_value": 1.1237,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.3,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0058,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0086,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_TB@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_TB@BAL

home

Brandon Young

True

5.1

5.2

0/6

5/3

8/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "k_percent": 18.9,
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      "woba": 0.319,
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      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 87,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "player_id": "687064",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
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            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
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            "H": 5.8,
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            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
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            "WHIP": 1.481,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.10127,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37975,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83544,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22785
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        },
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            "IP": 55.1,
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            "R": 25.0,
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            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
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            "Pitches": 942.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
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            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.9,
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            "HR": 0.9,
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            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4639,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.93976,
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        },
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            "IP": 117.2,
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            "R": 55.0,
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            "SO": 96.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.1905,
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            "H": 5.5714,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.99433,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.81586,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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        "predicted_H": 5.839,
        "predicted_BB": 1.991,
        "predicted_SO": 4.845,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 3.321,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.991,
          "final": 3.2886,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.975,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.156,
          "final": 4.156,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4284,
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          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
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        "SO": 52,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9465412531114686,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "player_name": "Brandon Young",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "687064",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "687064",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 87,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 342,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 77,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 48,
              "era_value": 3.5184,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 28,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 214,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 117.2,
              "ip_rank": 79,
              "h_value": 117.0,
              "h_rank": 61,
              "er_value": 46.0,
              "er_rank": 100,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 66,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 50,
              "k_value": 96.0,
              "k_rank": 92,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3427763,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.3512,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.72,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0262,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9697,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_TB@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_TOR@NYY

away

Dylan Cease

True

6.1

6.2

-2

4/2

3/5

4/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.4188861985472156,
      "WHIP": 1.0605326876513317,
      "IP": 137.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.986,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.009,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9142,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1343,
      "walk_factor": 1.032,
      "homer_factor": 0.8817,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 36.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.248,
      "xwoba": 0.254,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.4,
      "whiff_percent": 34.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 5,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656302",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 528.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 9.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 105.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.62,
            "WHIP": 0.81,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18,
            "H_per_IP": 0.39,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.38,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 250.0,
            "Pitches": 1066.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 9.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 106.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0876,
            "WHIP": 0.9124,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23196,
            "H_per_IP": 0.47938,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43299,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.40722,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06186
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 137.2,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 87.0,
            "BB": 59.0,
            "SO": 201.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 553.0,
            "Pitches": 2347.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6087,
            "R": 1.8261,
            "H": 3.7826,
            "BB": 2.5652,
            "SO": 8.7391,
            "HR": 0.3913,
            "BF": 24.0435,
            "Pitches": 102.0435
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4189,
            "WHIP": 1.0605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63196,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.46005,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06538
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.71,
        "predicted_H": 3.585,
        "predicted_BB": 2.66,
        "predicted_SO": 8.478,
        "predicted_HR": 0.494,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4037,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9755
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.71,
          "final": 1.8334,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.585,
          "final": 3.7616,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.66,
          "final": 2.8047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 8.478,
          "final": 6.5728,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.494,
          "final": 0.2838,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4037,
          "final": 2.4037,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9755,
          "final": 0.9755,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 64.2,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 91,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.0876288659793816,
        "WHIP": 0.9123711340206186,
        "K9": 12.664948453608249,
        "HR9": 0.5567010309278352,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7284557668364717,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656302",
      "player_name": "Dylan Cease",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 6.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4846,
        "runs_scored": 514.0,
        "runs_allowed": 565.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3923,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3462,
        "offense_index": 0.8796,
        "defense_index": 1.0342,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0261
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5703,
        "runs_scored": 568.0,
        "runs_allowed": 472.0,
        "run_differential": 96.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4375,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6875,
        "offense_index": 0.9872,
        "defense_index": 1.2189,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.3,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2215
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2476,
        "offense_edge": -0.1204,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0128,
        "defense_strength": 0.0342,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2189,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9916,
        "run_prevention": 1.0069,
        "strikeout": 0.9936
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 525.0,
            "k_percent": 36.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.248,
            "xwoba": 0.254,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 73.317,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1692,
            "whiff_percent": 34.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.2216,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2964,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.3429,
            "bb_edge": -0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0624
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 105,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 105,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.03372802060663,
              "release_spin_rate": 2491.2390796033537,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 105,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.03372802060663,
                "release_spin_rate": 2491.2390796033537,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0337,
              "release_spin_rate": 2491.2391,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0624,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4455,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.009,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9142,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1343,
          "walk_factor": 1.032,
          "homer_factor": 0.8817,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656302",
            "espn_id": 34943,
            "player_name": "Dylan Cease",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 5,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 5,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 309,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 59,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 23,
              "era_value": 2.4188,
              "era_rank": 4.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 67,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 120,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 137.2,
              "ip_rank": 37,
              "h_value": 87.0,
              "h_rank": 114,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 140,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 157,
              "bb_value": 59.0,
              "bb_rank": 9,
              "k_value": 201.0,
              "k_rank": 2,
              "k_per_9_value": 13.140436,
              "k_per_9_rank": 1,
              "whip_value": 1.0605,
              "whip_rank": 10.0,
              "war_value": 5.07,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9142,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9142,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8817,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.1343,
            "adjusted": 10
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_TOR@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_TOR@NYY

home

Ryan Weathers

True

6.0

3.1

-8

-1

4/8

0/0

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 134.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.583,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0233,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.0468,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 57,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677960",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 98.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.8526,
            "WHIP": 0.9474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.09474,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03158
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.2937,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0375
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 134.0,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 551.0,
            "Pitches": 2209.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2083,
            "R": 2.4583,
            "H": 5.0833,
            "BB": 1.5833,
            "SO": 5.8333,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 22.9583,
            "Pitches": 92.0417
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5597,
            "WHIP": 1.194,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39552,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91045,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28358,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04478,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13433
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.611,
        "predicted_H": 5.016,
        "predicted_BB": 1.779,
        "predicted_SO": 5.334,
        "predicted_HR": 0.414,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4681,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1564
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.611,
          "final": 2.1983,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.016,
          "final": 4.5864,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.779,
          "final": 1.0268,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.334,
          "final": 4.7699,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.414,
          "final": 1.5075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4681,
          "final": 2.4681,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1564,
          "final": 1.1564,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 2.7,
        "WHIP": 1.2937500000000002,
        "K9": 8.606250000000001,
        "HR9": 0.3375,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8068819910632758,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677960",
      "player_name": "Ryan Weathers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5703,
        "runs_scored": 568.0,
        "runs_allowed": 472.0,
        "run_differential": 96.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4375,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6875,
        "offense_index": 0.9872,
        "defense_index": 1.2189,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.3,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2215
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4846,
        "runs_scored": 514.0,
        "runs_allowed": 565.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3923,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3462,
        "offense_index": 0.8796,
        "defense_index": 1.0342,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0261
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2476,
        "offense_edge": -0.0128,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1204,
        "defense_strength": 0.2189,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0342,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0213,
        "run_prevention": 0.9465,
        "strikeout": 1.0171
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677960",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677960",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 522.0,
            "k_percent": 25.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9811,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6062,
            "whiff_percent": 27.0,
            "swing_percent": 44.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0631,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3957,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0526
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677960",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.98110493934767,
              "release_spin_rate": 2338.785642417081,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.98110493934767,
                "release_spin_rate": 2338.785642417081,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9811,
              "release_spin_rate": 2338.7856,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0526,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3756,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0233,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.0468,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "677960",
            "espn_id": 41178,
            "player_name": "Ryan Weathers",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 57,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 57,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 287,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 37,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 59,
              "era_value": 3.5597,
              "era_rank": 26.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 117,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 64,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 134.0,
              "ip_rank": 48,
              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 46,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 70,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 36,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 73,
              "k_value": 140.0,
              "k_rank": 25,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.402985,
              "k_per_9_rank": 14,
              "whip_value": 1.194,
              "whip_rank": 29.0,
              "war_value": 2.16,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0468,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_TOR@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_WAS@MIA

away

Jake Irvin

True

4.2

6.0

3/6

0/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.80373831775701,
      "WHIP": 1.3598130841121496,
      "IP": 71.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.756,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5275,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0448,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 1.1616,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.333,
      "xwoba": 0.351,
      "barrel_percent": 12.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 718,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663623",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 410.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8378,
            "WHIP": 1.1351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64865,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85135,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2027
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 207.0,
            "Pitches": 848.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.7,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7042,
            "WHIP": 1.3944,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6338,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97183,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42254,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99296,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16901
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 71.1,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 313.0,
            "Pitches": 1279.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0667,
            "R": 3.3333,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0667,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.8667,
            "Pitches": 85.2667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8037,
            "WHIP": 1.3598,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64486,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92523,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43458,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00935,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16822
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.954,
        "predicted_H": 4.298,
        "predicted_BB": 1.967,
        "predicted_SO": 4.557,
        "predicted_HR": 0.851,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4683,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2884
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.954,
          "final": 1.6081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.298,
          "final": 2.7953,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.967,
          "final": 1.0708,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.557,
          "final": 3.8476,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.851,
          "final": 0.4633,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4683,
          "final": 5.4683,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2884,
          "final": 1.2884,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.704225352112677,
        "WHIP": 1.3943661971830987,
        "K9": 8.93661971830986,
        "HR9": 1.5211267605633805,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1473727481055294,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663623",
      "player_name": "Jake Irvin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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        {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 130,
        "wins": 61,
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        "win_pct": 0.4692,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1231,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2154,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5039,
        "runs_scored": 563.0,
        "runs_allowed": 548.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1163,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3643,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
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          "run_differential": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "663623",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "663623",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.8978,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.1429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1525
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663623",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.19634892426923,
              "release_spin_rate": 2379.0697775891504,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 77,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0895,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5275,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Jake Irvin",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 718,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 718,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 428,
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              "k_per_9_value": 9.084112,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.3598,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.41,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0448,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
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      "predicted_SO": 5,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_WAS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260822

20260822_WAS@MIA

home

Eury Pérez

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

5/3

1/3

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "IP": 122.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.576,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2346,
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9801,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 1.0365,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.285,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 55,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "report_date": "20260822",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
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            "SO": 5.8,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0968,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25806,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70968,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93548,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.2,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.08424,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "H": 36,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 61,
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        "ERA": 1.8,
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        "K9": 9.15,
        "HR9": 0.3,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.6970382410632758,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 22.0,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "691587",
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      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5039,
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        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1163,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 0.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 130,
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        "losses": 69,
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        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1231,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -8.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0278,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0006,
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        "strikeout": 0.9911
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691587",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691587",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.8992,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.4221,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691587",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 97,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8911,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.2346,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Eury Perez",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
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              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 110,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 98,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 20,
              "k_value": 133.0,
              "k_rank": 34,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.758152,
              "k_per_9_rank": 13,
              "whip_value": 1.1086,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.23,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9801,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9801,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0365,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0451,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260822_WAS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}