Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260814 · dates 20260814 · generated 2026-08-15T02:50:32.340950+00:00

4-5
Winner picks · 44.4%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
2026081414954514Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied14
applied games: 11formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored11
available games: 10
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X11
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support14
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1011
configured window: 10last 10 games: 11observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented14
settled games: 9metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2885.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55552.0%60.0%-8.0%underconfident
0.55-0.60257.4%0.0%57.4%overconfident
0.60-0.65161.0%100.0%-39.0%underconfident
0.65-0.70166.0%0.0%66.0%overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml92.50864.81372.879633.3%0.00.0
variance_applied92.44444.66672.888922.2%-0.06420.0093
enhanced_prediction92.27784.33333.022.2%-0.23080.1204
embedded_savant_run_environment92.33334.44443.111122.2%-0.17530.2315
fundamental_edge_target_review92.33334.44442.888944.4%-0.17530.0093
capped_target92.33334.44442.888944.4%-0.17530.0093
simulation_result92.88894.44443.777844.4%0.38030.8982
published_final92.55564.44443.333344.4%0.0470.4537
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "simulation_result",
  "games": 9,
  "team_run_mae": 2.8889,
  "total_run_mae": 4.4444,
  "margin_mae": 3.7778,
  "winner_hits": 4,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4444,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3803,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.8982
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_result9.05
enhanced_prediction4.05
embedded_savant_run_environment1.05
variance_applied0.8165
fundamental_edge_target_review0.05
capped_target0.05
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "simulation_result",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 9.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.816,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction3.04
fundamental_edge_target_review2.04
simulation_result1.04
variance_applied0.73274
embedded_savant_run_environment0.04
capped_target0.04
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.7327,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=9

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)3210.6667
[0.525, 0.550)2110.5
[0.550, 0.600)2020.0
[0.600, 1.010)2110.5
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 2,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 2,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=14

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260814140.54246.57140.4444
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260814",
      "sample_size": 14,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5424,
      "mean_predicted_total": 6.5714,
      "accuracy": 0.4444
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v7model_winner_simulation_score_v19450.4444
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.4444
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260814_ARI@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickATL
Published scoreARI 2 - 3 ATL
Final confidence51.2%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.4% · weight 50.0% · n=216
H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7579
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.263924598693848-4.667601108551025Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result0-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.512,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 2 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.512,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5139,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.512,
    "published_confidence": 0.512,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0937,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0937,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 15.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9959,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.316,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7579
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.047624555745504546
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04585781403206849
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.04456595961056668
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.042912683509388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.03889054522838305
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10697874815629127,
      "1": 0.17241736965492496,
      "2": 0.2147899579000505,
      "3": 0.20682183363497506,
      "4": 0.15393176504215994,
      "5": 0.08855428237485341,
      "6": 0.03937679280967776,
      "7": 0.013533825319982972,
      "8": 0.0035954251070843516
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11298702468904973,
      "1": 0.18106314470474552,
      "2": 0.2217261747761316,
      "3": 0.2074862346744573,
      "4": 0.14837032004974163,
      "5": 0.08107560473617965,
      "6": 0.03385468514422066,
      "7": 0.010802711570462274,
      "8": 0.0026340996550115203
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ARI 2 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 0,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 0 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0368,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.316,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 0,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7579,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.512,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5673,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.512,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7579,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.316,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0368,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.263924598693848,
      "home_runs": 4.667601108551025,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 0,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_BAL@TB

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickTB
Published scoreBAL 2 - 6 TB
Final confidence57.0%
Calibrationraw 76.9% → blended 65.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=155
H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.0145
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.403975486755371-4.707465171813965Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.769158,
    "sample_size": 155,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5484,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.658779,
    "published_confidence": 0.57,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0202,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0145
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029389903797900775
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02861058219334178
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02822666019854988
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027478183909939273
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02698630824333494
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03382873400297187,
      "1": 0.058236845613787815,
      "2": 0.08841309311514538,
      "3": 0.11837008742953199,
      "4": 0.13975713690078645,
      "5": 0.14551664205725548,
      "6": 0.1336158493098784,
      "7": 0.10819568267224962,
      "8": 0.07726245954246418,
      "9": 0.04865570499866261,
      "10": 0.027021263523232062,
      "11": 0.013233788176681286,
      "12": 0.005715698971264662,
      "13": 0.0021770136860881162
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09298787502733552,
      "1": 0.15181952860867434,
      "2": 0.19661381536061395,
      "3": 0.2019693650320554,
      "4": 0.1645667324926692,
      "5": 0.10636130793141972,
      "6": 0.05452684495599211,
      "7": 0.02217288201293058,
      "8": 0.007151859923759431,
      "9": 0.0018297886545497498
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.056,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.004,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0145,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.57,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.57,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0145,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.004,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.056,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2222,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1111,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.403975486755371,
      "home_runs": 4.707465171813965,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_BOS@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickPIT
Published scoreBOS 2 - 3 PIT
Final confidence51.0%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.670187950134277-3.727921485900879Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction1-1Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment1-1Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review1-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target1-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 1 - 2 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "BOS 1 - 2 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 1 - 3 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.536,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
    "fallback": true
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.670187950134277,
      "home_runs": 3.727921485900879,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_CHW@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickDET
Published scoreCHW 1 - 5 DET
Final confidence66.0%
Calibrationraw 88.3% → blended 71.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=157
H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5489
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.091209411621094-5.245654582977295Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 2 - 5 DET",
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.883282,
    "sample_size": 157,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5478,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.715541,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3793,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.864,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5489
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.033105246996850114
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031369108246390234
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030987160126935625
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029426333051564862
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0278831276164983
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.030774907339311323,
      "1": 0.05313132823633978,
      "2": 0.08135699073126035,
      "3": 0.11049162579335343,
      "4": 0.1330926694254259,
      "5": 0.14219004506220848,
      "6": 0.13473317131691895,
      "7": 0.11323225514589412,
      "8": 0.08440264675874866,
      "9": 0.055799750739215094,
      "10": 0.03271890316152024,
      "11": 0.017015922467477483,
      "12": 0.007848787011396042,
      "13": 0.0032109968109301818
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12362481578723111,
      "1": 0.19608327038718182,
      "2": 0.23282394335247936,
      "3": 0.20695072597164432,
      "4": 0.13770778172407866,
      "5": 0.06859654235483366,
      "6": 0.02557986116546786,
      "7": 0.007140791545337519,
      "8": 0.001492267711745596
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 2 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 1 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0429,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.864,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5489,
      "winner": "DET",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.66,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6814,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.66,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5489,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.864,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0429,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.091209411621094,
      "home_runs": 5.245654582977295,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_COL@SF

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickSF
Published scoreCOL 4 - 5 SF
Final confidence51.2%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.4% · weight 50.0% · n=216
H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2624
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.393302917480469-5.410855293273926Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.512,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 4 SF",
    "confidence": 0.512,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5139,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.512,
    "published_confidence": 0.512,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5071,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.192,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2624
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032419643608715264
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031380230674401495
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030764242393924095
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029777903622142766
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02830507490140488
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06563328691332757,
      "1": 0.10982720923534027,
      "2": 0.1531262954302551,
      "3": 0.17788676505797654,
      "4": 0.1721835004978816,
      "5": 0.13886521218303882,
      "6": 0.09331456271463276,
      "7": 0.05224676706365831,
      "8": 0.02437381178195641,
      "9": 0.009474177518042496,
      "10": 0.003068411603890166
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0689786986173557,
      "1": 0.11509880207803198,
      "2": 0.15911849817595897,
      "3": 0.18224876706341311,
      "4": 0.17294284026075502,
      "5": 0.13596735079098982,
      "6": 0.08856471812692021,
      "7": 0.047794829217096685,
      "8": 0.021369538532521753,
      "9": 0.007915957136956971
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 5 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0572,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.192,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SF",
      "model_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2624,
      "winner": "SF",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SF",
    "display_confidence": 0.512,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5798,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.512,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2624,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.192,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0572,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.393302917480469,
      "home_runs": 5.410855293273926,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_KC@LAA

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickLAA
Published scoreKC 4 - 5 LAA
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 50.1% → blended 50.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.4% · weight 50.0% · n=212
H2H base featurehome net -16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1838
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.125767230987549-4.503369331359863Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 3 - 4 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.501354,
    "sample_size": 212,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5142,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.507777,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1091,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1091,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1708,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.208,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1838
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03216395129818688
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030951123005053677
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030868919154163284
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029704923531190145
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027855787449441602
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06657146267282063,
      "1": 0.11130403536762551,
      "2": 0.15479673250689963,
      "3": 0.1790773819321052,
      "4": 0.1723247875927486,
      "5": 0.13793765399836902,
      "6": 0.09184298429607568,
      "7": 0.05086712672236227,
      "8": 0.023434543323518468,
      "9": 0.008980568932553586,
      "10": 0.002862722654921339
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06699787164348359,
      "1": 0.11197441937711997,
      "2": 0.1555516791059786,
      "3": 0.17960923345630223,
      "4": 0.17237754327828414,
      "5": 0.1375088930330477,
      "6": 0.09117566858150432,
      "7": 0.05024874262949382,
      "8": 0.023018102135897445,
      "9": 0.008764192303243525,
      "10": 0.0027736544556447354
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "KC 3 - 5 LAA",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0581,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.142,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1838,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5496,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1838,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.208,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0581,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 14
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.125767230987549,
      "home_runs": 4.503369331359863,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_MIA@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCIN
Published scoreMIA 2 - 3 CIN
Final confidence51.0%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.092471599578857-4.5252156257629395Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction1-1Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment1-1Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review1-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target1-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CIN",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 1 - 2 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "MIA 1 - 2 CIN",
      "winner": "CIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIA 2 - 3 CIN",
      "winner": "CIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CIN",
      "model_winner": "CIN",
      "simulation_winner": "CIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "CIN",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1111,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5556,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
    "fallback": true
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.092471599578857,
      "home_runs": 4.5252156257629395,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_MIL@LAD

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickLAD
Published scoreMIL 3 - 4 LAD
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 54.7% → blended 53.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.4% · weight 50.0% · n=216
H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0402
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.0854082107543945-4.960665225982666Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.546742,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5139,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.530321,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0437,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0437,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0868,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.276,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0402
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028140862298956276
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027472715884439277
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027048991589308992
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02640676938038373
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02490184888671091
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05395744604296718,
      "1": 0.09122504726788952,
      "2": 0.13118515087204008,
      "3": 0.16045864897342305,
      "4": 0.16693578873462964,
      "5": 0.1477214784924279,
      "6": 0.11118487395519829,
      "7": 0.07117961596322857,
      "8": 0.03875907849381044,
      "9": 0.017951432717168467,
      "10": 0.007071843779936808,
      "11": 0.0023695947072800766
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05645723830092144,
      "1": 0.09523969208282605,
      "2": 0.13604904149458721,
      "3": 0.16457055789343905,
      "4": 0.16857297355027057,
      "5": 0.1462186955396899,
      "6": 0.10739820277122393,
      "7": 0.06679904810716375,
      "8": 0.035182175037701435,
      "9": 0.015691130970978233,
      "10": 0.005926045218918288,
      "11": 0.0018951990322801442
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 2 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.2051,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.276,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0402,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5511,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0402,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.276,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.2051,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 14
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.0854082107543945,
      "home_runs": 4.960665225982666,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_NYY@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickNYY
Published scoreNYY 5 - 3 TOR
Final confidence57.8%
Calibrationraw 59.3% → blended 57.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.4% · weight 50.0% · n=165
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9073
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.234112739562988-3.6584625244140625Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.578084,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 3 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.578084,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.592567,
    "sample_size": 165,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5636,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578084,
    "published_confidence": 0.578084,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3549,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.076,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9073
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030812891204690225
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02856664511887493
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.028562452798038318
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027854780052536977
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02784932949854227
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07670199652446172,
      "1": 0.12709844394210298,
      "2": 0.17207721735857015,
      "3": 0.19035140709332354,
      "4": 0.17204354571719646,
      "5": 0.1270487081946609,
      "6": 0.07665697876756027,
      "7": 0.037790507115921995,
      "8": 0.015221705561100696,
      "9": 0.005009489725101171
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.048175091157379654,
      "1": 0.08187027348851282,
      "2": 0.11956932443490055,
      "3": 0.1500732017434973,
      "4": 0.16187372436697353,
      "5": 0.15005117763082787,
      "6": 0.11953423202654781,
      "7": 0.08183423396577488,
      "8": 0.04814681748609978,
      "9": 0.02434389060668118,
      "10": 0.010577967500845912,
      "11": 0.00395006559195886
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 5 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 5 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0218,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.126,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9073,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5781,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6299,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5781,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9073,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.076,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0218,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.234112739562988,
      "home_runs": 3.6584625244140625,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_SD@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickSD
Published scoreSD 4 - 3 CLE
Final confidence61.0%
Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=243
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4567
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.6452364921569824-4.716177463531494Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-2Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.6099,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 2 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.6099,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 243,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5473,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6099,
    "published_confidence": 0.6099,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3279,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.696,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4567
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0399983764356656
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03963065989147239
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03506834028054704
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03474594697242626
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03404057850730118
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12642690634974732,
      "1": 0.19997748499553258,
      "2": 0.2354985959353465,
      "3": 0.20647200296079604,
      "4": 0.13477199221811367,
      "5": 0.0654943376283877,
      "6": 0.02369591531459545,
      "7": 0.006382764965554963,
      "8": 0.001279999631925867
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05883975545067583,
      "1": 0.09904929543165644,
      "2": 0.14059679847493572,
      "3": 0.168284060183325,
      "4": 0.16984549855510267,
      "5": 0.1445468427193793,
      "6": 0.10373055178795813,
      "7": 0.06276944309868339,
      "8": 0.03202826198332897,
      "9": 0.013780404899749316,
      "10": 0.004999586580419791,
      "11": 0.001529500834785286
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 2 CLE",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 CLE",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0492,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.696,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4567,
      "winner": "SD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.6099,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5964,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6099,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4567,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.696,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0492,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2222,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2222,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6452364921569824,
      "home_runs": 4.716177463531494,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_SEA@HOU

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickHOU
Published scoreSEA 2 - 3 HOU
Final confidence51.2%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.4% · weight 50.0% · n=216
H2H base featurehome net -18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2614
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.76818585395813-4.460901737213135Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.512,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 2 - 3 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.512,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5139,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.512,
    "published_confidence": 0.512,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1038,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0533,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.648,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2614
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.0590909581629017
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.052135940348622796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.05089169050137743
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.050602515378460465
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.04860581347597373
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.13118731248590973,
      "1": 0.20653281830287476,
      "2": 0.23980775653878175,
      "3": 0.2053592641817456,
      "4": 0.12970069150012817,
      "5": 0.060415336966444355,
      "6": 0.02075530077192347,
      "7": 0.005258813619495045,
      "8": 0.000982705632696924
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.13921099149395574,
      "1": 0.21740723111344132,
      "2": 0.2464097034048417,
      "3": 0.20268657768837928,
      "4": 0.12099726016848623,
      "5": 0.05242150023304544,
      "6": 0.01648263789675559,
      "7": 0.003761208013096531,
      "8": 0.0006228899879979247
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 3 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0417,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3855,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2614,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.512,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6095,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.512,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2614,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.648,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0417,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.625,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.125,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.76818585395813,
      "home_runs": 4.460901737213135,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_STL@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCHC
Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 CHC
Final confidence54.0%
Calibrationraw 56.6% → blended 54.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.4% · weight 50.0% · n=216
H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7099
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.281154155731201-5.128968238830566Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.539925,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 3 - 4 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.539925,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.565949,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5139,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.539925,
    "published_confidence": 0.539925,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0103,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.152,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7099
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032799434167467514
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03158055174211245
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03095027509060885
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029800110542792798
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028751807822257825
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06648050959874285,
      "1": 0.11116097391919616,
      "2": 0.1546353562470364,
      "3": 0.1789631882079324,
      "4": 0.17231261357367486,
      "5": 0.13802853677949423,
      "6": 0.09198545296827376,
      "7": 0.0509997293423987,
      "8": 0.023524209802651488,
      "9": 0.009027358080127721,
      "10": 0.0028820714804713805
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06986987412210408,
      "1": 0.11649230035538032,
      "2": 0.16065766435079315,
      "3": 0.18327475329372628,
      "4": 0.1729421307282958,
      "5": 0.13498823979379662,
      "6": 0.08715414171269903,
      "7": 0.04654543500553122,
      "8": 0.020561894369632423,
      "9": 0.00751356626804106
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "STL 3 - 4 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 3 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1013,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.152,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7099,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.5399,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.574,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5399,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7099,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.152,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1013,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.281154155731201,
      "home_runs": 5.128968238830566,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_TEX@OAK

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickOAK
Published scoreTEX 0 - 4 OAK
Final confidence51.0%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.595421314239502-4.5631890296936035Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction1-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment1-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review1-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target1-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result0-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "OAK",
    "away_runs": 0,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 1 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 1 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "OAK"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 0,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 0 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "OAK"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 0,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "OAK",
      "model_winner": "OAK",
      "simulation_winner": "OAK",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 0,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "OAK",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "OAK",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.572,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
    "fallback": true
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.595421314239502,
      "home_runs": 4.5631890296936035,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 0,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260814_WAS@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickWAS
Published scoreWAS 3 - 2 NYM
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 55.8% → blended 54.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.0% · weight 50.0% · n=253
H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3834
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.212968349456787-4.46631383895874Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 3 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.558414,
    "sample_size": 253,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5296,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.544007,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6523,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.116,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3834
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03232928394015658
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03168989706003177
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030296663151221252
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02969747608087633
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028479827498243657
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07096549953973919,
      "1": 0.11820232850776008,
      "2": 0.16253420874968183,
      "3": 0.18450303412059627,
      "4": 0.1729028791815212,
      "5": 0.133764515126588,
      "6": 0.08543180766190042,
      "7": 0.04504413521941894,
      "8": 0.01960635640402909,
      "9": 0.007045235488765062
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06361088369860671,
      "1": 0.10663496471354468,
      "2": 0.14948123511325037,
      "3": 0.17522358965124263,
      "4": 0.1717581350955908,
      "5": 0.14078646562727104,
      "6": 0.09649911803571894,
      "7": 0.055310123636027164,
      "8": 0.026509696877479307,
      "9": 0.010624872860548272,
      "10": 0.0035609146907200784
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 3 NYM",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 1 NYM",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2255,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.066,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3834,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6253,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3834,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.116,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.2255,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.212968349456787,
      "home_runs": 4.46631383895874,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026081420260814_ARI@ATLATL51.2%51.0%51.4%50.0%2.0-3.02-0missSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5139,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.512,
    "published_confidence": 0.512,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0937,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0937,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 15.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9959,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.316,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7579
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.047624555745504546
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04585781403206849
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.04456595961056668
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.042912683509388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.03889054522838305
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10697874815629127,
      "1": 0.17241736965492496,
      "2": 0.2147899579000505,
      "3": 0.20682183363497506,
      "4": 0.15393176504215994,
      "5": 0.08855428237485341,
      "6": 0.03937679280967776,
      "7": 0.013533825319982972,
      "8": 0.0035954251070843516
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11298702468904973,
      "1": 0.18106314470474552,
      "2": 0.2217261747761316,
      "3": 0.2074862346744573,
      "4": 0.14837032004974163,
      "5": 0.08107560473617965,
      "6": 0.03385468514422066,
      "7": 0.010802711570462274,
      "8": 0.0026340996550115203
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ARI 2 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 0,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 0 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0368,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.316,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 0,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7579,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081420260814_BAL@TBTB57.0%76.9%54.8%50.0%2.0-6.06-5missSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.769158,
    "sample_size": 155,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5484,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.658779,
    "published_confidence": 0.57,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0202,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0145
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029389903797900775
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02861058219334178
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02822666019854988
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027478183909939273
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02698630824333494
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03382873400297187,
      "1": 0.058236845613787815,
      "2": 0.08841309311514538,
      "3": 0.11837008742953199,
      "4": 0.13975713690078645,
      "5": 0.14551664205725548,
      "6": 0.1336158493098784,
      "7": 0.10819568267224962,
      "8": 0.07726245954246418,
      "9": 0.04865570499866261,
      "10": 0.027021263523232062,
      "11": 0.013233788176681286,
      "12": 0.005715698971264662,
      "13": 0.0021770136860881162
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09298787502733552,
      "1": 0.15181952860867434,
      "2": 0.19661381536061395,
      "3": 0.2019693650320554,
      "4": 0.1645667324926692,
      "5": 0.10636130793141972,
      "6": 0.05452684495599211,
      "7": 0.02217288201293058,
      "8": 0.007151859923759431,
      "9": 0.0018297886545497498
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.056,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.004,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0145,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081420260814_BOS@PITPIT51.0%———2.0-3.04-8hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "BOS 1 - 2 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 1 - 3 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081420260814_CHW@DETDET66.0%88.3%54.8%50.0%1.0-5.09-5missEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.883282,
    "sample_size": 157,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5478,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.715541,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3793,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.864,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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2026081420260814_COL@SFSF51.2%51.0%51.4%50.0%4.0-5.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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2026081420260814_KC@LAALAA51.0%50.1%51.4%50.0%4.0-5.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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2026081420260814_MIA@CINCIN51.0%———2.0-3.00-1hitEnhanced Prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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2026081420260814_MIL@LADLAD53.0%54.7%51.4%50.0%3.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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2026081420260814_NYY@TORNYY57.8%59.3%56.4%50.0%5.0-3.01-3missEmbedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081420260814_SD@CLESD61.0%67.2%54.7%50.0%4.0-3.07-5hitEnhanced Prediction (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081420260814_SEA@HOUHOU51.2%51.0%51.4%50.0%2.0-3.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081420260814_STL@CHCCHC54.0%56.6%51.4%50.0%4.0-5.00-3hitSimulation Result (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081420260814_TEX@OAKOAK51.0%———0.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (4.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081420260814_WAS@NYMWAS53.0%55.8%53.0%50.0%3.0-2.01-4missSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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