Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260812 · dates 20260812 · generated 2026-08-13T02:38:35.022776+00:00

8-5
Winner picks · 61.5%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
20260812151328515Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied15
applied games: 13formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored13
available games: 13
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X13
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support15
simulation flip candidates: 1published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1013
configured window: 10last 10 games: 13observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented15
settled games: 13metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1567.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55952.1%55.6%-3.4%underconfident
0.55-0.60158.0%0.0%58.0%overconfident
0.60-0.65260.0%100.0%-40.0%underconfident
0.65-0.70165.2%100.0%-34.8%underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml132.20032.98963.53646.2%0.00.0
variance_applied132.23083.07693.538523.1%0.03050.0025
enhanced_prediction132.65384.07693.461561.5%0.4535-0.0745
embedded_savant_run_environment132.65384.07693.461561.5%0.4535-0.0745
fundamental_edge_target_review132.65384.07693.461561.5%0.4535-0.0745
capped_target132.65384.07693.461561.5%0.4535-0.0745
simulation_result132.84624.61543.230869.2%0.6459-0.3052
published_final132.80774.84623.307761.5%0.6074-0.2283
simulation_winner_disagreement13.06.06.00.0%0.79972.464
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
  "games": 1,
  "team_run_mae": 3.0,
  "total_run_mae": 6.0,
  "margin_mae": 6.0,
  "winner_hits": 0,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.7997,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 2.464
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction6.05
simulation_winner_disagreement4.01
variance_applied0.61195
embedded_savant_run_environment0.05
fundamental_edge_target_review0.05
capped_target0.05
simulation_result-1.05
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6119,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "games": 5
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=8

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_result10.08
enhanced_prediction9.08
variance_applied0.57988
embedded_savant_run_environment0.08
fundamental_edge_target_review0.08
capped_target0.08
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "simulation_result",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 10.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 9.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.5798,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=13

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)4220.5
[0.525, 0.550)5320.6
[0.550, 0.600)1010.0
[0.600, 1.010)3301.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 13,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260812150.54857.06670.6154
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260812",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5485,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.0667,
      "accuracy": 0.6154
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=13

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v7model_winner_simulation_score_v113850.6154
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 13,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 13,
      "hits": 8,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.6154
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260812_BAL@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIN
Published scoreBAL 2 - 3 MIN
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 54.7% → blended 53.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.5% · weight 50.0% · n=200
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0057
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.663102626800537-4.442725658416748Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.547424,
    "sample_size": 200,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.531212,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0087,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.0,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0057
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03842347276572365
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03597078700619629
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03565538502471051
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03347905424966663
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.033379394625982536
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0824880396128442,
      "1": 0.13597288138046026,
      "2": 0.1812252476120958,
      "3": 0.19529457783891718,
      "4": 0.17016363424514397,
      "5": 0.11988046030651073,
      "6": 0.06828654409189805,
      "7": 0.03145045618022792,
      "8": 0.011711805381827875,
      "9": 0.00352635335007389
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08442904604062614,
      "1": 0.13892750576283744,
      "2": 0.18418733077098384,
      "3": 0.1967462342831458,
      "4": 0.16932779864489464,
      "5": 0.1174154521960041,
      "6": 0.06559902836228412,
      "7": 0.029528726514282514,
      "8": 0.010709450489308023,
      "9": 0.0031294269356333055
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 2 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0371,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.07,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0057,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5641,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0057,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0371,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.663102626800537,
      "home_runs": 4.442725658416748,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_BOS@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickBOS
Published scoreBOS 5 - 4 TOR
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 62.9% → blended 59.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=206
H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9543
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.514300346374512-4.234213352203369Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.628671,
    "sample_size": 206,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5534,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.591035,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2312,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.44,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9543
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024245022378240697
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02339797670540724
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02314918383711623
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02242241633576165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02234042335453348
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054602081080025226,
      "1": 0.09226203829996953,
      "2": 0.1324484986300458,
      "3": 0.1615404095409448,
      "4": 0.16738844104436024,
      "5": 0.14736009568469224,
      "6": 0.11021595555268136,
      "7": 0.07003565437999454,
      "8": 0.037809771836655244,
      "9": 0.01734199543507001,
      "10": 0.006757782715570218,
      "11": 0.002237275799990675
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.033127737174566615,
      "1": 0.05706725823163944,
      "2": 0.08680708258368543,
      "3": 0.11659937734006354,
      "4": 0.13829619113891728,
      "5": 0.1448428710308344,
      "6": 0.1339543889402698,
      "7": 0.10939303912889381,
      "8": 0.07888516636481377,
      "9": 0.05023124252551328,
      "10": 0.028243948684995926,
      "11": 0.014023287050986584,
      "12": 0.006148188179173457,
      "13": 0.002380221625646805
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 6 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1338,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2809,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9543,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6545,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9543,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.44,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1338,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.514300346374512,
      "home_runs": 4.234213352203369,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_CHC@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCHC
Published scoreCHC 4 - 3 WAS
Final confidence60.0%
Calibrationraw 72.7% → blended 64.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=182
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8176
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.416531562805176-5.024113655090332Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.727478,
    "sample_size": 182,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.641189,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.25,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0062,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8701,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.72,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8176
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03028831040152395
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03024486777445017
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029728568343365007
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029685928556237324
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02650141368543806
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09477478018043468,
      "1": 0.15448275921989152,
      "2": 0.19907840837070062,
      "3": 0.20282674084165503,
      "4": 0.16337408737434025,
      "5": 0.10403944987433765,
      "6": 0.05238052293206768,
      "7": 0.020849638176270925,
      "8": 0.006561212832467893,
      "9": 0.001632400197833833
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03893584753919016,
      "1": 0.0667181089198108,
      "2": 0.09988688280929958,
      "3": 0.1306603536371344,
      "4": 0.14933095249590267,
      "5": 0.14911676660062323,
      "6": 0.13009893987066742,
      "7": 0.09917259427714137,
      "8": 0.06605112629790776,
      "9": 0.03843610913177064,
      "10": 0.019542010617679552,
      "11": 0.008680999053703484,
      "12": 0.003369308749168963
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 WAS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 WAS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0996,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.72,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8176,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6736,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8176,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.72,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0996,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8889,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5556,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1111,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2222,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.416531562805176,
      "home_runs": 5.024113655090332,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_CIN@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCHW
Published scoreCIN 4 - 5 CHW
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 50.5% → blended 51.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.5% · weight 50.0% · n=200
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5523
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.8392252922058105-5.0226874351501465Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.510193,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.510193,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.505386,
    "sample_size": 200,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.510193,
    "published_confidence": 0.510193,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9746,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.232,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5523
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03217728010064363
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031115031656959728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03078996181990125
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029773512047826738
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027926620345017042
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06579094974905353,
      "1": 0.1100755724415907,
      "2": 0.15340792272277953,
      "3": 0.1780888238103713,
      "4": 0.17220968873934087,
      "5": 0.13871088343365962,
      "6": 0.09306696115043969,
      "7": 0.05201307967388943,
      "8": 0.02421372714622112,
      "9": 0.009389506335277707,
      "10": 0.0030328847973764205
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06765601641766673,
      "1": 0.11302633217627883,
      "2": 0.15681287431463561,
      "3": 0.1806810748264919,
      "4": 0.17289103920797608,
      "5": 0.13739191389120492,
      "6": 0.09067315580272084,
      "7": 0.04969642617594287,
      "8": 0.02262040908658127,
      "9": 0.008550758100501162
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 6 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0792,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.582,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5523,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5102,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5521,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5102,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5523,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.232,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0792,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.8392252922058105,
      "home_runs": 5.0226874351501465,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_CLE@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickDET
Published scoreCLE 3 - 5 DET
Final confidence58.0%
Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 77.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 57.5% · weight 43.5% · n=87
H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.1804
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.067048072814941-4.781002044677734Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-6Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-6Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-6Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-6Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 3 - 6 DET",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 87,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5747,
    "empirical_weight": 0.435,
    "blended_confidence": 0.769794,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0083,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.5,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.1804
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0264126739395275
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025561210690373842
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025524495781962815
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02470166466076405
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02463272012386364
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022464629016719646,
      "1": 0.03909582930540391,
      "2": 0.06132060240473473,
      "3": 0.08668165593690118,
      "4": 0.11043145389478279,
      "5": 0.12679530843179432,
      "6": 0.1312074160946763,
      "7": 0.12236532985017799,
      "8": 0.10284973842058037,
      "9": 0.07790992775795447,
      "10": 0.053189660184100346,
      "11": 0.03272701787788506,
      "12": 0.01814807041279973,
      "13": 0.00906983280845277,
      "14": 0.004085196123802641,
      "15": 0.0016583314792336565
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09170388712333884,
      "1": 0.14989976650956668,
      "2": 0.1948152890376978,
      "3": 0.20130473357137613,
      "4": 0.16538411990900367,
      "5": 0.10802953209646753,
      "6": 0.05610480443174312,
      "7": 0.023166822965168643,
      "8": 0.007605745273553612,
      "9": 0.0019852990820839545
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 6 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0012,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.25,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1804,
      "winner": "DET",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.625,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1804,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.5,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0012,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.067048072814941,
      "home_runs": 4.781002044677734,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_COL@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickARI
Published scoreCOL 3 - 4 ARI
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 55.2% → blended 53.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.2% · weight 50.0% · n=201
H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9403
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.061887264251709-5.2347235679626465Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.552111,
    "sample_size": 201,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5124,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.532255,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3368,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.204,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9403
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03257392976151883
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0314622988807419
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03084053898821554
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029788062490289098
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028485945898934287
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06597580073922454,
      "1": 0.1103666726684865,
      "2": 0.15373764887897412,
      "3": 0.17832470991182345,
      "4": 0.17223912994665294,
      "5": 0.13852913598410732,
      "6": 0.09277680953922196,
      "7": 0.05174003849943426,
      "8": 0.02402719466987927,
      "9": 0.009291126910929029,
      "10": 0.0029917322512665995
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06933890488451787,
      "1": 0.11566232068917413,
      "2": 0.15974200049460216,
      "3": 0.18266638301346863,
      "4": 0.17294596471495913,
      "5": 0.13557341336001238,
      "6": 0.08799356662040715,
      "7": 0.04728676515188358,
      "8": 0.021039750374085325,
      "9": 0.007750930696889502
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0458,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3207,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9403,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6208,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9403,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.204,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0458,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.061887264251709,
      "home_runs": 5.2347235679626465,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_HOU@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickHOU
Published scoreHOU 5 - 4 SF
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 57.8% → blended 54.5%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.2% · weight 50.0% · n=201
H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4356
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.735074520111084-4.725418567657471Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.577749,
    "sample_size": 201,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5124,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.545074,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4375,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.432,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4356
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03601725838064601
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03304813910276886
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032751984217536605
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03228563927980197
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.032210425289857715
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07800784506967787,
      "1": 0.12911000843226314,
      "2": 0.17418359167363123,
      "3": 0.1915491710459177,
      "4": 0.1717034477020809,
      "5": 0.12545947266655538,
      "6": 0.07472288017315978,
      "7": 0.03627684022414429,
      "8": 0.014355919174538255,
      "9": 0.004630823838031457
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0743112036851418,
      "1": 0.12340255623271296,
      "2": 0.16815747681902685,
      "3": 0.1880313978075741,
      "4": 0.17253083854300075,
      "5": 0.12990481771161044,
      "6": 0.08026125545349669,
      "7": 0.04069197844759751,
      "8": 0.016929098389819056,
      "9": 0.005779376910019817
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "HOU 6 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1668,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.432,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4356,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6449,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4356,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.432,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1668,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.735074520111084,
      "home_runs": 4.725418567657471,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_KC@LAD

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickLAD
Published scoreKC 4 - 5 LAD
Final confidence58.0%
Calibrationraw 67.3% → blended 61.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=236
H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.5413
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.389464855194092-4.54222297668457Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.673273,
    "sample_size": 236,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5466,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.609937,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.3755,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.5413
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025948816438617493
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025070423393814194
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02493200584603287
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024088032843258132
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023814688230136948
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.033877889272312556,
      "1": 0.05831880649104114,
      "2": 0.08852540520790841,
      "3": 0.1184934192999919,
      "4": 0.13985807715340492,
      "5": 0.14556195734605007,
      "6": 0.13359039478986598,
      "7": 0.10811092728847402,
      "8": 0.0771491177763064,
      "9": 0.04854665917559951,
      "10": 0.02693734233423365,
      "11": 0.013180052956996393,
      "12": 0.005686520086786975,
      "13": 0.0021634308210279154
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06593008207864424,
      "1": 0.11029468493169932,
      "2": 0.15365614550577741,
      "3": 0.17826647093600403,
      "4": 0.172231974967287,
      "5": 0.1385741675716405,
      "6": 0.09284855675357799,
      "7": 0.051807474106039655,
      "8": 0.024073213193644624,
      "9": 0.00931536953069621,
      "10": 0.003001860424989033
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "KC 3 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.179,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.342,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5413,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6024,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5413,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.008,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.179,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.389464855194092,
      "home_runs": 4.54222297668457,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_MIL@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickSD
Published scoreMIL 1 - 3 SD
Final confidence51.0%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.225728988647461-4.610283851623535Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction1-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment1-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review1-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target1-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 1 - 3 SD",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 1 - 3 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 1 - 3 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "SD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.511,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.375,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.125,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.125,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
    "fallback": true
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.225728988647461,
      "home_runs": 4.610283851623535,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_NYM@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickATL
Published scoreNYM 2 - 3 ATL
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 64.4% → blended 60.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=153
H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.0924
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.325535774230957-4.138214111328125Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.644108,
    "sample_size": 153,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5621,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.603104,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.5579,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.228,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0924
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032974845203948146
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03146820758718336
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03124299689195282
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029815488314225053
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029450596184247835
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0528022480829307,
      "1": 0.08936376818647246,
      "2": 0.12890539669654608,
      "3": 0.15848249234872105,
      "4": 0.1660703310875398,
      "5": 0.14832124999506838,
      "6": 0.11290554425695788,
      "7": 0.07325338982845284,
      "8": 0.04050799530754678,
      "9": 0.019092128190437603,
      "10": 0.007669525552333359,
      "11": 0.0026259304669933184
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08706949747624407,
      "1": 0.14292857882364254,
      "2": 0.1881311170234487,
      "3": 0.1985595198612947,
      "4": 0.16803870077252164,
      "5": 0.11402929448053475,
      "6": 0.06204575601116473,
      "7": 0.02707049799963969,
      "8": 0.009470413268271537,
      "9": 0.0026566242832375886
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 1 - 5 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1795,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1697,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0924,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5943,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0924,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.228,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1795,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.325535774230957,
      "home_runs": 4.138214111328125,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_PHI@STL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickPHI
Published scorePHI 5 - 4 STL
Final confidence51.1%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.2% · weight 50.0% · n=201
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0789
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.456705093383789-3.7397494316101074Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.51125,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 STL",
    "confidence": 0.51125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 201,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5124,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51125,
    "published_confidence": 0.51125,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0935,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.052,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0789
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030285797958660196
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030115534463472052
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029573470047457407
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029407211183088207
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025907165232438106
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06422439702135592,
      "1": 0.10760461109757638,
      "2": 0.15059337566829714,
      "3": 0.17604552672911036,
      "4": 0.1719049013936738,
      "5": 0.14021538359922284,
      "6": 0.09553163461277062,
      "7": 0.05436794187385286,
      "8": 0.025845367770604474,
      "9": 0.010262819234983114,
      "10": 0.003404040998552533
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06131221162308339,
      "1": 0.10299229296828058,
      "2": 0.14526480607346656,
      "3": 0.17203389669345245,
      "4": 0.17106674064949268,
      "5": 0.14282856454197276,
      "6": 0.10012960398092893,
      "7": 0.05893969198664145,
      "8": 0.029130716169762306,
      "9": 0.012089056239360544,
      "10": 0.004212419073558199
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 STL",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 6 - 3 STL",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1067,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.052,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0789,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5112,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5386,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5112,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0789,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.052,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1067,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.456705093383789,
      "home_runs": 3.7397494316101074,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_PIT@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIA
Published scorePIT 2 - 5 MIA
Final confidence60.0%
Calibrationraw 64.9% → blended 60.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=155
H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2633
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.3520026206970215-4.8351311683654785Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.648733,
    "sample_size": 155,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5677,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.608216,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.05,
    "away_run_delta": -0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0281,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.7,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2633
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03221855766909415
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030486199103947398
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02990093683114996
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029091381523780106
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028293194344432646
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.051439107409140275,
      "1": 0.08716254857810793,
      "2": 0.12618910362637425,
      "3": 0.15608789700264736,
      "4": 0.16495749089220732,
      "5": 0.14894649698592818,
      "6": 0.11490633797583952,
      "7": 0.07573787455248242,
      "8": 0.04265183115222803,
      "9": 0.020521905721307958,
      "10": 0.008436321729781964,
      "11": 0.0029630843739549646
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0825135328403745,
      "1": 0.13601176088444927,
      "2": 0.18126449832271604,
      "3": 0.1953143048844481,
      "4": 0.17015329362301027,
      "5": 0.1198482443913632,
      "6": 0.06825084017667342,
      "7": 0.03142456945201363,
      "8": 0.01169810941510431,
      "9": 0.003520846009847401
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PIT 2 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2043,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.875,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2633,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5688,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2633,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.7,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.2043,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.3520026206970215,
      "home_runs": 4.8351311683654785,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_SEA@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickNYY
Published scoreSEA 1 - 2 NYY
Final confidence65.2%
Calibrationraw 75.3% → blended 65.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=185
H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8874
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.207452297210693-3.5820796489715576Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction1-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment1-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review1-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target1-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.652227,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 1 - 3 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.652227,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.753054,
    "sample_size": 185,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5514,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.652227,
    "published_confidence": 0.652227,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0562,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0562,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0422,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.6,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8874
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.05242478582433844
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.048230885992393835
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04730871828724281
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.04679500098390577
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04352409575508416
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07389063274881359,
      "1": 0.12275066340185117,
      "2": 0.16745945797754347,
      "3": 0.18760606975415803,
      "4": 0.172597881317297,
      "5": 0.13039934389663013,
      "6": 0.08090339062025169,
      "7": 0.04122013508992495,
      "8": 0.01724659914355283,
      "9": 0.005925826049977166
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.21525834466259103,
      "1": 0.27944077658594263,
      "2": 0.25217050999062507,
      "3": 0.15818800458464735,
      "4": 0.06898068976086343,
      "5": 0.020910106821457487,
      "6": 0.00440615432376698,
      "7": 0.0006454132701061628
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "SEA 1 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "SEA 1 - 2 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0118,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.775,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8874,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.6522,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5908,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6522,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8874,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.6,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0118,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.207452297210693,
      "home_runs": 3.5820796489715576,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260812_TB@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickOAK
Published scoreTB 2 - 4 OAK
Final confidence51.0%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation usediagnostic_only_winner_disagreement
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.349295139312744-3.853489398956299Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Simulation Winner Disagreement2-4Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only.
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "OAK",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 2 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "OAK"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 OAK",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": true,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": true,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "OAK",
      "model_winner": "OAK",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "OAK",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.511,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
    "fallback": true
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.349295139312744,
      "home_runs": 3.853489398956299,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only."
    }
  ]
}

20260812_TEX@LAA

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickTEX
Published scoreTEX 5 - 4 LAA
Final confidence52.4%
Calibrationraw 53.7% → blended 52.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.2% · weight 50.0% · n=201
H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6041
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.255627155303955-3.9474806785583496Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.524489,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.524489,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.536577,
    "sample_size": 201,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5124,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.524489,
    "published_confidence": 0.524489,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 12.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7269,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.376,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6041
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03788512352916337
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03536002833751306
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03471581961729086
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03359719308242114
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03274339758078076
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08376499293511173,
      "1": 0.13791795164193368,
      "2": 0.18317996475189574,
      "3": 0.19626103029252978,
      "4": 0.16962470610753402,
      "5": 0.1182614154186658,
      "6": 0.06651138132795155,
      "7": 0.030175035724800722,
      "8": 0.011043291828919373,
      "9": 0.00326022997065774
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07970577498230423,
      "1": 0.13171798163711662,
      "2": 0.1768859542087721,
      "3": 0.1930343658784175,
      "4": 0.1711862667404938,
      "5": 0.12336620681042003,
      "6": 0.07224644889358546,
      "7": 0.03438189438969199,
      "8": 0.013296462154380632,
      "9": 0.004178644304817673
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.078,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2885,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6041,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5245,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6362,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5245,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6041,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.376,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.078,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.255627155303955,
      "home_runs": 3.9474806785583496,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026081220260812_BAL@MINMIN53.0%54.7%51.5%50.0%2.0-3.05-7hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.547424,
    "sample_size": 200,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.531212,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0087,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.0,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0057
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Signals
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2026081220260812_CHC@WASCHC60.0%72.7%55.5%50.0%4.0-3.012-6hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_CIN@CHWCHW51.0%50.5%51.5%50.0%4.0-5.00-5hitSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_CLE@DETDET58.0%92.0%57.5%43.5%3.0-5.06-4missEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_COL@ARIARI53.0%55.2%51.2%50.0%3.0-4.06-4missEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_HOU@SFHOU53.0%57.8%51.2%50.0%5.0-4.02-1hitSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_KC@LADLAD58.0%67.3%54.7%50.0%4.0-5.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_MIL@SDSD51.0%———1.0-3.03-4hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_NYM@ATLATL53.0%64.4%56.2%50.0%2.0-3.03-6hitSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_PHI@STLPHI51.1%51.0%51.2%50.0%5.0-4.01-7missSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_PIT@MIAMIA60.0%64.9%56.8%50.0%2.0-5.02-8hitSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_SEA@NYYNYY65.2%75.3%55.1%50.0%1.0-2.05-10hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_TB@OAKOAK51.0%———2.0-4.08-4missSimulation Result (-4.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081220260812_TEX@LAATEX52.4%53.7%51.2%50.0%5.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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